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Poll: Which Of These Tigers Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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Earlier today, we learned that three prominent Detroit Tigers (Jose Iglesias, Francisco Liriano and Jordan Zimmerman) have cleared trade waivers, meaning that each is eligible to be traded at any time during the remainder of the season. For any of the three to be eligible for postseason play, he would need to be shipped off to another team before the end of the month.

Each of the three aforementioned players have varying levels of value in relation to their respective salaries for 2018 (and money owed beyond this season). However, it’s not hard to imagine any of the three as a plausible trade candidate; there are certainly plenty of contending teams who could use a shortstop or a starting pitcher. The Tigers would likely have to eat some of the remaining salary owed to any of these three players in the event an agreement is struck with a contending team, but I want to explore the plausibility of each player being dealt, not his overall contract value.

Jose Iglesias, SS- The bulk of Iglesias’ value is locked up in his defensive capabilities. Though he’s hit just .276/.306/.391 over the course of the 2018 season (a batting line that’s not too far off from his career averages), Iglesias owns a Fangraphs defensive rating of 13.7 due in part to the accrual of four Defensive Runs Saved and an Ultimate Zone Rating of 8.9 to this point on the year. That, combined with a below-average wRC+ of 88, has earned him a 2.2 fWAR mark- the highest of any player on this list. Infielders with Iglesias’ defensive capabilities are in short supply, so it’s easy to imagine there would be more than one suitor for the 28-year-old should the Tigers pay down some of his $6.3MM arbitration salary.

Francisco Liriano, LHP- Liriano’s served as a starter for the bulk of his career, and although he’s been largely unspectacular over the course of his 13-season MLB career, he’s shown flashes of brilliance. Most notably, Liriano put up a 3.26 ERA across the 2013-2015 seasons while with the Pirates, notching 9.58 K/9 against 3.78 BB/9 while managing a 52% ground ball rate. While it seems likely that those days are behind him, Liriano could still prove a useful asset to a contending team should he figure out how to regain some semblance of control (he’s walked more than five batters per nine innings on the season). It could be tough to find a taker, considering he owns a 4.37 ERA in 17 starts on the season that seems lucky when compared to his 5.23 FIP, but it’s worth mentioning that the Astros acquired him down the stretch last season in order to utilize him as a reliever, and there’s more than one team that might benefit from adding a lefty to its bullpen.

Jordan Zimmerman, RHP-  Zimmerman’s case is the most curious of these three, particularly considering the massive amount of money he’s owed beyond 2018 ($50MM) and the fact that he has a full no-trade clause as part of his contract with the Tigers. Still, after a pair of horrific seasons since signing with Detroit and an equally-rough start to the 2018 season, Zimmerman’s returned to some semblance of usefulness. In eight starts after coming off the disabled list on June 16th, the righty’s managed to compile 41 strikeouts against a stingy seven walks. The result has been a reasonable 3.91 ERA across 46 innings, and he’s lasted at least five innings in all but one of his eight contests. A pitcher of that caliber would certainly be useful to a number of contending teams looking for a fourth starter in October. The tricky part of any negotiation would be deciding upon exactly how much of Zimmerman’s remaining salary ought to be paid down, and that’s without even considering what it might take to convince him to waive his no-trade clause after he chose to sign with the Tigers in part due to Detroit’s geographic location.

It’s no certainty that any of these three will be dealt. But it’s not an impossibility that all three could be moved prior to August 31st, either. Who do you think is most likely to be on the move this season? Here’s a link to the poll for those using the app.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Bettis, Drury, Holland, O’Neill, Springer

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 6th-August 7th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • SAN DIEGO PADRES | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: SP Brett Kennedy (contract purchased)
      • Kennedy will make his MLB debut on Wednesday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Injury Notes: Ohtani, Samardzija, Urias, Bryant

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Though a few notable players went on the disabled list earlier today, some even more notable names are making progress in their returns. Here are the details…

  • Shohei Ohtani is nearing a return to the mound, and his rehab seems to be going even better than expected (per Trent Rush of Angels Radio Network). The Angels double-threat reportedly threw from 120 feet “with aggression”. Ohtani, the club’s headliner offseason acquisition, is already back to doing damage at the plate, but the club would surely be glad to see him return with rest and rehab after suffering a grade 2 UCL sprain earlier this season; the alternative would of course be the feared Tommy John surgery which would keep him off the field until the beginning of the 2020 season.
  • It would appear that Giants hurler Jeff Samardzija is even closer to a return, as the 33-year-old threw 30 pitches off a bullpen mound on Monday (h/t Chris Haft of MLB.com). “Shark” has been trudging through an injury-plagued 2018 season that’s seen him make just ten starts and average fewer than five innings across them. His hideous 6.25 ERA would be a career-worst by far, and his 5.44 FIP doesn’t paint a much kinder picture. The 57-58 Giants will surely be hoping he can provide a boost to their rotation after they opted not to sell off any assets at the trade deadline in overly-optimistic hopes of contending for an NL Wild Card.
  • The outlook isn’t as optimistic for former wunderkind Julio Urias of the Dodgers. The 21-year-old lefty blew away the competition at every level of the minors en route to a 1.8 fWAR showing in his first taste of major-league action back in 2016, when he pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 77 innings. But he followed that up with a rough 2017 showing that saw him post a bloated 5.40 ERA and ultimately cede the season to an anterior capsule injury that required surgery. Now, according to Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, Urias’ velocity is down to 88-91 MPH after sitting closer to the mid-90’s for the majority of his pro career. Longenhagen also reports that the youngster’s secondary pitches are less “crisp” than they were pre-injury, leading to questions about whether Urias will ever be the same pitcher again.
  • “I’m not going to get ahead of myself,” says Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant in reference to his latest attempt to return from a shoulder injury. In a video interview with Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribute, the former NL MVP details his patient approach to injury rehab (though it’s disappointing that the interview is largely inaudible). Bryant’s 2018 season has been marred by shoulder troubles, though he’s still managed an impressive .276/.380/.474 performance across 358 plate appearances while healthy. On the other hand, that’s not quite to the level of his career numbers (.286/.387/.519).

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/7/18

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves …

Latest…

  • The Blue Jays will hold Darnell Sweeney on their active roster no longer. The club has announced that he cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A. Sweeney earned just four plate appearances with Toronto this season prior to being designated for assignment; it was his first taste of major league action since 2015, when the 27-year-old was with the Phillies. It seems as though the move was more motivated by projected potential than performance. Although Sweeney didn’t get a hit in his four trips to the plate, he did manage to draw two walks. He did, however, hit just .235/.310/.398 at the Triple-A level, and while that’s good for a nearly-average 98 wRC+, he also struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances.
  • The Angels announced that they’ve placed infielder Luis Valbuena on release waivers. The 32-year-old is finishing up a two-year, $15MM contract with a 2019 club option, which clearly won’t be exercised. He’s long been a useful major-league asset, providing at least 1 fWAR across each of the past six seasons while with the Cubs, Astros and Angels. Unfortunately, this year has been an entirely different story, as he’s mustered just a .199/.253/.335 batting line across 288 plate appearances for the Halos while striking out a whopping 34.7% of the time. Valbuena’s performance has also suffered from a 6.6% walk rate that’s nearly four full percentage points below his career average of 10.5%.

Earlier…

  • The Twins have released right-hander Todd Van Steensel, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). It seems the organization simply ran out of room for the 27-year-old reliever, who has been with the Twins since 2011. The Aussie had spent the 2018 season at the Double-A level, working to a 3.07 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 while allowing just 26 hits over 44 innings.

A Layman Attempts To Calculate WAR: An Introduction

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In 2018, WAR is everywhere.  Love it or hate it, the wins above replacement metric has changed the way we evaluate Major League Baseball players.  WAR is an attempt to encapsulate all tangible aspects of a player’s value into one number.  It allows for all players throughout MLB history to be compared on a single scale.  It’s a grand idea that has firmly taken root.

Whether it’s fans, baseball writers, agents, or executives, just about everyone citing WAR understands the general idea.  But I’ve long wondered how many of us are capable of pulling open a spreadsheet and accurately calculating WAR, with a reasonable understanding of each component.  Furthermore, how many can explain the limitations of the current WAR calculation?  And do we understand which subjective choices were made to get to the current formula?

For a long time, I’ve wanted to write this series.   I’m a reasonable candidate: I’m not bad with numbers, nor am I especially talented.  I know my way around Excel, but I’m not an expert.  If I run into roadblocks as I try to understand WAR, perhaps you will too.  If not, hopefully you can help educate me in the comments section.  Let’s crack open the hood and attempt to understand WAR from a layman’s perspective.

As you might imagine, the WAR calculation differs for position players and pitchers.  Plus, major sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus have different formulas.  For this exercise, I’m going to dig into FanGraphs WAR.  That’s the version we use here at MLBTR.  I don’t have any evidence of this, but I feel that FanGraphs WAR might be the most commonly cited version.  Otherwise, I don’t have any justification as to why MLBTR should cite FanGraphs WAR and not someone else’s.  By the end of this project I hope to have a clear understanding of the differences.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll begin this exercise by examining position players.   From what I understand, there is a little more room for subjectivity in the pitching formula, so we’ll leave that discussion for later.  I’ll approach the subject by utilizing a case study, as that will keep us grounded in reality.  I’ll attempt to see how if I can reasonably arrive at the known WAR figure that was compiled, examining lessons that arise along the way.

So, here’s a quick preview of what’s coming. Our preliminary subject will be the 2017 season of Chris Taylor of the Dodgers. It’s an interesting year to look at, as he racked up an impressive 4.8 WAR while making defensive contributions at five different positions. It’s easy to see that Taylor made positive contributions in offense, defense, and baserunning. We’ll examine each of the three components in separate installments, beginning next time with Taylor’s work at the plate.

I hope that this exercise will offer plenty of opportunities for dialogue on a notable, sometimes misunderstood subject. I’m looking forward to plenty of respectful debate along the way.

DL Placements: Fried, Carle, Albers

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A trio of pitchers have hit the disabled list this afternoon… here are the details.

  • The Braves have placed Max Fried on the DL with a left groin strain, the club announced. It’s a notable loss for a pennant-chasing Atlanta club, as Fried’s been excellent in four starts (nine total appearances) so far this season. Despite walking a whopping 16 batters in just 26 2/3 innings, Fried’s managed to post a tidy 3.38 ERA thanks in part to 34 strikeouts and a 50.8% ground ball rate. He’s benefitted from an 80.5% strand rate, but his whopping 23.1% HR/FB rate suggests a bit of bad luck in that department. Fried’s injury suggest that Atlanta will likely return to a traditional five-man rotation for the time being, utilizing Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Anibal Sanchez and the newly-acquired Kevin Gausman.
  • Simultaneously, the Braves have lost a valuable righty reliever to the DL in the form of Shane Carle (shoulder inflammation). Carle’s been fantastic out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.53 ERA across 53 1/3 innings. The righty’s been used for four or more outs a whopping 14 times in 2018, so the club will surely miss his ability to eat late innings for the time being. In the absence of Fried and Carle, the Braves have recalled lefty Adam McCreery and righty Wes Parsons from Triple-A Gwinett.
  • The Brewers have unsurprisingly added righty reliever Matt Albers to their disabled list, owing to a left hamstring issue. It’s been clear that something isn’t right with the 35-year-old veteran, as he’s allowed a cataclysmic 18 earned runs across his past eight appearances spanning 5 1/3 innings dating back to the start of June. In the season’s first two months, though, Albers had allowed just three earned runs across 25 innings; the club will hope to get him right in time for him to make an impact out of their ’pen down the stretch. Recently-acquired right-hander Jordan Lyles will take Albers’ place on the active roster for the time being.

Pirates Claim Buddy Boshers, Designate Chris Bostick

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The Pirates have claimed lefty reliever Buddy Boshers off waivers from the Astros. Paul Braverman (Communications Personnnel for the Fresno Grizzlies) originally announced the move, and the Astros have since confirmed.

Boshers, who has exactly 100 major league appearances to his name since his debut in 2013, has been stuck with the club’s Triple-A affiliate all season. There, he’s struck out an impressive 9.71 batters per nine innings against just 2.65 walks per nine across 41 appearances. The performance result is a 3.18 ERA (with a more ordinary 3.84 FIP), though that doesn’t entirely describe his value. Boshers has actually pitched 51 innings across those 41 appearances, implying he’s been relied upon to get more than three outs on several occasions.

The Pirates will be Boshers’ third team already this season. Though he began the year with the Twins, they barely waited half a month into 2018 before designating him for assignment (in order to make room for offseason signee Addison Reed). Though the Astros claimed him and used a 40-man roster spot to house him throughout the entire season, they evidently decided that he was either expendable or deserved a major-league opportunity elsewhere. Boshers has certainly proved that he warrants at least a chance to prove himself at the major league level once again.

Bostick, 25, made his major league debut only last season, when he collected eight hits and four walks in 32 plate appearances  while being hit by a pitch en route to a .406 OBP. Evidently the Pirates didn’t feel as though he’d be a useful piece this season, as they’ve given him just two major league at-bats in 2018 despite a respectable .295/.351/.436 batting line across 327 PA at the Triple-A level. Capable of playing second base and the outfield, it seems likely that the 5’10” right-handed hitter will latch on with another major league club following his placement on the waiver wire.

Brewers Acquire Sal Biasi

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In a swap of minor leaguers, Brewers announced that they’ve acquired A-ball righty Sal Biasi from the Royals in exchange for Triple-A right-hander Jon Perrin.

Biasi, 22, has only been a professional ballplayer for about a year; he was selected by the Royals in the 11th round of the 2017 draft. Though he managed ERA outputs below 2.50 at each of his first two stops throughout the minors, there was cause for skepticism based on his FIP figures (both above 4.00). Biasi hasn’t had the good fortune of out-pitching his peripherals at the A level; he’s been hit hard to the tune of a 5.08 ERA despite a 9.70 K/9 across 42 2/3 innings pitched so far on the season. Biasi’s pitched exclusively out of the bullpen, making 27 appearances.

Perrin, 25, is a towering 6’5″ righty who’s split the 2018 season between the Brew Crew’s Double-A and Triple-A levels. He’s chucked 47 1/3 innings thus far across 28 appearances (one start), and allowed 20 earned runs while notching 44 strikeouts against 20 walks. Despite that gaudy walk total, Perrin’s actually exhibited great control at previous levels of the minors. He’s never known any team other than the Brewers, who selected him in the 27th round of the 2015 draft.

Neither player is on the club’s 40-man roster, so this swap isn’t subject to the limitations beyond the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. However, it’s not outlandish to think that the teams made this trade with major-league roster ideas in mind. Perrin, after all, has proven capable of limiting runs at the minors’ highest level, and the Kansas City bullpen isn’t exactly overflowing with high-end talent. Perhaps we’ll see Perrin get a look in the majors at some point down the stretch, though that’s obviously no certainty. For the Brewers, they’ll get something back for a player who’d have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the offseason to come.

Brandon Drury Diagnosed With Fractured Hand

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Blue Jays infielder Brandon Drury has been diagnosed with a fractured left hand, the club announced. He’s heading to the 10-day disabled list, with infielder Richard Urena coming up to take his spot on the active roster.

Drury, who’s closing in on his 26th birthday, has struggled at the plate to open his tenure in Toronto. He came over with Billy McKinney from the division-rival Yankees in a late-July deal that sent J.A. Happ to New York.

The anticipated timeline isn’t yet known, but it seems reasonable to anticipate that Drury will be out for most or all of the remainder of the season. While that’s not necessarily of significant impact to a Blue Jays club who’ve already sold off assets and raised the white flag on the 2018 season, it certainly adds another moral blow to a frustrating season for the former 13th-rounder. Following back-to-back solid (if unspectacular) seasons with the Diamondbacks, Drury looked to have carved out a place on the club’s major league roster for years to come.

Things took an unexpected turn, though, as Drury was shipped to the Yankees in the offseason as part of the three-team trade that sent Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks. He figured to serve as a stopgap in the Yankees’ infield that would reduce the urgency to promote Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, but blurred vision and migraines caused him to hit the DL in April, and Drury was optioned to Triple-A when he became healthy. From that point on, Drury was never truly able to get going, as evidenced by his .169/.256/.260 batting line across 86 plate appearances with the Yankees and Blue Jays.

The addition of Drury to the disabled list will thin out Toronto’s infield depth, leaving the uninspiring (and strikeout-prone) Urena as the club’s lone option to back up Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz and Devon Travis. The club has given no indication that they might add third base superprospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the major league roster any time soon.

 

Brewers Claim Ariel Hernandez

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The Brewers announced today that they have claimed right-hander Ariel Hernandez off waivers from the Dodgers. He had been designated for assignment recently.

Hernandez worked at 98.1 mph with his fastball and produced a 12.6% swinging-strike rate in 24 1/3 MLB frames last year with the Reds. But he also handed out 22 free passes in that span, which perhaps led the Cincinnati club to designate him for assignment early in the present season.

It’s also clear, though, that teams are intrigued at the idea of harnessing Hernandez’s stuff. The Dodgers had to give up some value to acquire him in mid-April, indicating that there was competition, and now the Brewers will tie up a 40-man spot (for the time being, at least) in the middle of a pennant race.

Thus far in 2018, Hernandez has posted a 2.52 ERA in fifty frames over 37 appearances in the upper minors. But he has also produced just 49 strikeouts to go with 29 walks on the year. Hernandez has struggled in particular at the highest level of the minors; in 42 1/3 total frames there over the past two seasons, he has retired 40 batters on strikes but issued 39 free passes.

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