Archives for August 2018

Earlier Saturday, we ran down pending free-agent hitters who have enjoyed good to great years with trips to the open market around the corner. We’ll do the opposite with this list, which admittedly could consist of several more players, as evidenced by the cavalcade of underwhelming hitters set to hit the open market. However, in the interest of keeping this piece at a reasonable length, we’ll stick with prominent soon-to-be free agents who have hurt themselves with disappointing performances in 2018. As was the case before, we’ll focus on players who have accrued at least 150 plate appearances this season.

Catchers:

Jonathan Lucroy, Athletics: Long one of the majors’ elite all-around catchers, Lucroy is now in the throes of his second consecutive subpar season. The 32-year-old Lucroy, who sat on the open market for all of last winter until finally signing in mid-March, has limped to a career-worst .240/.296/.326 line (72 wRC+) with two home runs and a meek .086 ISO in 335 plate appearances in Oakland. Defensively, Lucroy’s slide from a tremendous pitch framer to a below-average one has continued.

Brian McCann, Astros: As is the case with Lucroy, McCann looks like a respected backstop whose best days are long gone. Before undergoing knee surgery in early July, McCann slashed an unappealing .206/.283/.323 (71 wRC+) with five homers and a career-low .116 ISO over 173 PAs. At the same time, the 34-year-old struggled in the pitch-framing department. Expectations are that McCann will return in 2018, but it’s doubtful the seven-time All-Star will be able to rebuild his stock to a meaningful extent leading up to free agency.

Matt Wieters, Nationals: Yet another catcher who garnered plenty of hype earlier in his career, Wieters may not even be in line for a major league contract in the offseason. The 32-year-old has been a downright terrible hitter since last season, as his 63 wRC+ across 618 PAs indicates, and Baseball Prospectus doesn’t regard Wieters as a particularly valuable pitch-framing backstop.

First basemen:

Joe Mauer, Twins: Mauer can still get on base, evidenced by his .346 OBP, but the ex-superstar’s power looks to be completely gone. The 35-year-old (36 next April) has only recorded an .087 ISO and three homers in 365 PAs this season. That’s not going to cut it for a first baseman, nor is Mauer’s overall line of .267/.346/.354 (93 wRC+). Mauer’s only a year removed from serving as a decent regular for the Twins, though, so perhaps there’s hope that the former catcher will be able to bounce back if he continues his career in 2019.

Logan Morrison, Twins: Morrison isn’t a true free agent-to-be yet, as he has an $8MM club option for 2019. But the Twins are likely inclined to buy that out for $1MM, considering Morrison has been a massive disappointment this year. On the heels of what seemed like a breakout season with the Rays in 2017, I implored someone to sign Morrison as a free agent when he remained on the market in February. In hindsight, that wasn’t the best call (excuse the colorful language here), as the 30-year-old Morrison has batted a horrid .186/.276/.368 (74 wRC+) with merely OK power numbers (15 homers, .182 ISO) during his 359 PAs with the Twins. Statcast has liked Morrison better than his actual results, per the enormous distance between his wOBA (.284) and his expected wOBA (.355), but that’s probably not of much consolation to the Twins.

Lucas Duda, Royals: Duda was a good hitter for the majority of his Mets tenure, which ran from 2010-17, but the Royals haven’t benefited from his presence in 2018. Since signing a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Royals last winter, the 32-year-old Duda has scuffled to a .239/.309/.400 line (91 wRC+) and a replacement-level fWAR over 285 PAs. Along the way, the powerful Duda has posted a career-worst ISO (.161) and only 10 HRs. If it was hard for Duda to land a deal to his liking last winter, it should be all the more difficult for him during the upcoming offseason.

Second basemen:

Brian Dozier, Dodgers: At times, including his 42-home run season in 2016, Dozier has been one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever. Now, the 31-year-old’s a roughly league-average hitter (.228/.313/.421 with a 98 wRC+ in 498 PAs), albeit one who has still shown some pop in 2018 (19 HRs, .194 ISO). I took an in-depth look at Dozier’s middling season in June, and it hasn’t really gotten much better since then. Although, since the Twins traded Dozier to the Dodgers last month, he has raked in a limited sample of work.

DJ LeMahieu, Rockies: LeMahieu has been on the disabled list three times this season and hasn’t performed that well when healthy. A .300-plus hitter in each of the previous three seasons, LeMahieu has batted a toothless .271/.319/.419 (82 wRC+) in 371 PAs this year. However, the 30-year-old LeMahieu has deserved better in the eyes of Statcast, which credits him with a .349 xwOBA that far outpaces his .318 wOBA.

Logan Forsythe, Twins: Forsythe, who joined the Twins as part of the package they received from the Dodgers for Dozier, has mimicked Dozier in performing much better for his new team. The sample size is tiny, though, and overall, the 31-year-old has hit an ugly .234/.296/.315 (73 wRC+) in 243 PAs. Forsythe, who was one of the game’s steadiest second basemen with the Rays from 2015-16, has chipped in a meager two homers and an unimposing .081 ISO in 2018.

Neil Walker, Yankees: Even though he was a solid offensive second baseman with the Pirates, Mets and Brewers from 2010-17, the 32-year-old Walker had an awful time trying to find a contract last winter. He finally signed with the Yankees on a one-year, $4MM pact in March, but it hasn’t worked out as hoped for either party.  The switch-hitting Walker has batted a weak .227/.300/.340 (74 wRC+) with six HRs and a .113 ISO in 277 PAs in pinstripes.

Shortstop:

Alcides Escobar, Royals: Escobar has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he’s now borderline unplayable. Among qualified hitters, the 31-year-old Escobar ranks last in wRC+ (41), having hit .202/.253/.273 in 413 PAs.

Third basemen:

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: One of the biggest names on this list and its most recent MVP winner (2015), Donaldson hasn’t played since May 28 on account of an injured calf. When he has taken the field this year, Donaldson has produced more like a mediocre hitter than the elite player he was from 2013-17, as he has slashed .234/.333/.423 (104 wRC+) with five homers and a .190 ISO in 159 PAs. If Donaldson makes it back this season, the soon-to-be 33-year-old will attempt to rebuild his stock in advance of free agency, but neither his age nor the injury issues he has endured will help his cause.

Adrian Beltre, Rangers: Indications are that Beltre will only play for the Rangers if he returns at all in 2019, which would be his age-40 season. Based on Beltre’s apparent unwillingness to explore the market and his meager production this season, he’s seemingly not in line to receive a large payday over the winter. The future Hall of Famer has finally looked mortal at the plate this season, having compiled a .278/.333/.398 line (94 wRC+) with seven long balls and a .120 ISO in 345 PAs.

Outfielders:

Marwin Gonzalez, Astros: Gonzalez’s performance in 2017 was among many tremendous showings for the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, though the utilityman has taken sizable steps backward this season. While the 29-year-old (30 next March) has been more average than bad, as his 99 wRC+ (.242/.326/.389) in 406 PAs proves, he’s not the 4.0-fWAR star he was a year ago. Bad timing for Gonzalez with free agency around the corner.

Carlos Gomez, Rays: When the Rays added Gomez on a one-year, $4MM guarantee last March, it looked like a steal for the club. Eight months later, it’s fair to say the minimal gamble hasn’t worked out for Tampa, for which Gomez has offered a .218/.309/.354 slash (88 wRC+) with a .136 ISO (down 73 points from 2017) in 350 PAs. It wasn’t easy for Gomez to find a deal last winter, and given that he’ll turn 33 in March and will probably be coming off an unimpressive season, the upcoming winter could be even colder for the former standout.

Hunter Pence, Giants: A three-time All-Star and a two-time world champion, Pence has had an outstanding career, but we’ve perhaps reached the point where the 35-year-old should walk away. He’s .215/.252/.289 hitter (46 wRC+) with a single homer and a .074 ISO in 159 PAs so far this season.

Matt Joyce, Athletics: Joyce was a 25-HR hitter and 2.6-fWAR player for the Athletics in 2017, the first season of a two-year, $11MM contract. This season, even though the A’s are serious contenders, he hasn’t been part of the solution. Joyce, 34, has posted a .203/.311/.359 line (87 wRC+) with only seven homers across 226 PAs, though the seismic gap between his wOBA (.297) and xwOBA (.346) suggests that he hasn’t been close to as bad as his results say.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

With Major League Baseball’s regular season winding down, we’re drawing closer to the playoffs and the opening of the free-agent market soon after that. There are plenty of hitters scheduled to reach free agency in a few months, including a pair of in-their-prime superstars, and here we’ll identify which members of the group have helped their causes during platform seasons. Each of these players has racked up at least 150 plate appearances this year, so we’ll use that number as an arbitrary cutoff…

Manny Machado, SS/3B, Dodgers: Entering 2018, Machado was a soon-to-be 26-year-old with three seasons of at least 5.0 fWAR under his belt since his first full campaign in 2013. Machado’s stock was already sky high with a trip to free agency looming, then, yet he has managed to raise it in the season’s first four-plus months. A .279/.329/.476 hitter (115 wRC+) in 3,365 PAs from 2012-17, Machado is on pace for his top offensive year with a .308/.383/.547 line (147 wRC+), a personal-high walk rate (11.0 percent, up from 6.7 between 2012-17) and a career-best-tying ISO (.239). Moreover, with 26 home runs, he’s set to eclipse the 30-HR mark for the fourth straight year, and he has also reached double-digit steals (10 on 11 tries) for the second time.

If there’s one criticism of Machado, it’s that he has been brutal at shortstop, his preferred position, with minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. An all-world defender at third base with the Orioles from 2012-17, Machado has spent some time at the hot corner since the Dodgers acquired him last month and has once again thrived at the position. It may be better for Machado’s earning power if he’s willing to move back to third on a full-time basis, but regardless, he’s in for a massive payday.

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Admittedly, whether Harper has upped his stock this year to a noticeable degree is debatable. After all, the lefty-swinger hasn’t come close to rivaling his otherworldly offensive seasons of 2015 and ’17. But a .235/.379/.500 showing (130 wRC+) isn’t to be taken lightly, nor are 28 homers, a .265 ISO and an 18 percent walk rate. And it’s worth noting that Harper has appeared in nearly all of the Nationals games’ (113 of 116) after missing 51 contests with injuries a year ago. Set to turn 26 in October, Harper – like Machado – is a Hall of Fame-type talent on a collision course with an enormous contract.

Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers: Grandal has been generally outstanding since 2015, his first year with the Dodgers, but it did look as if backup Austin Barnes was beginning to take hold of the starting catcher job in LA last season. During the NL pennant winners’ run through the playoffs in 2017, Barnes picked up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11. That trend hasn’t continued into this year, though, with Grandal having nearly doubled Barnes’ playing time to this point (379 PAs to 190). Along the way, Grandal has put up a personal-best wRC+ (131) on the strength of a .252/.354/.492 line and 20 homers, giving him three straight seasons with at least that many. The 29-year-old switch-hitter also leads qualified catchers in ISO (.240) and has seen his expected weighted on-base average rise from .299 in 2017 to .373 this year. Adding to Grandal’s immense appeal, he has been the game’s second-best pitch-framing backstop in 2018, according to Baseball Prospectus.

A.J. Pollock, CF, Diamondbacks: Pollock was one of baseball’s rising stars before missing nearly the entire 2016 campaign on account of fractured right elbow. Two years later, he looks back to form, though a fractured thumb did cost the soon-to-be 31-year-old significant time earlier this season. As a result of that injury, Pollock has only appeared in 71 games thus far, but he has made a major impact in the process. Pollock has been worth 2.3 fWAR on the strength of a .283/.344/.539 (133 wRC+) slash at the plate, and has added 15 homers, 10 steals on 12 tries and a .256 ISO.

Eduardo Escobar, 3B/SS, Diamondbacks: Escobar’s numbers have dipped since he went from the Twins to the D-backs in a trade last month, but the overall production is still worthy of praise. Thanks in large part to a .278/.338/.505 line (121 wRC+) in 456 PAs, Escobar has already logged 2.6 fWAR, matching the career-high figure he totaled in 2014. The switch-hitting 29-year-old also has 15 homers, putting him on pace for his second straight 20-HR season, to go with a personal-best .227 ISO (notably, Escobar began hitting more fly balls in 2017 and has continued that trend this year). As left-side infielders go, Escobar’s no Machado, but it still seems he’ll do well for himself in free agency.

Nelson Cruz, DH, Mariners: Two important factors that will hamper Cruz’s value in free agency: 1. He’s 38. 2. He can’t play defense. If a team needs an offensive boost at DH, though, you won’t find many hitters who are more imposing. Cruz has essentially been as excellent as ever this year, having slashed .268/.353/.556 (148 wRC+) with 30 long balls in 416 PAs. He’s also a Statcast favorite, ranking second in the majors in average exit velocity (94.4 mph), sixth in xwOBA (.422, which blows away his real-world .383 wOBA) and 10th in barrels per plate appearance (9.6 percent).

Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: As with Cruz, Markakis’ age (35 in November) will work against him on the market. Fortunately for Markakis, though, he has found another gear at the plate in 2018. After serving as a league-average or slightly worse hitter over the previous several seasons, Markakis has batted .326/.390/.505 (138 wRC+, tying his career-high mark from 2008) with 14 homers and a .179 ISO (his highest since ’08) in 500 PAs. Signs it’s not a fluke: Markakis has amassed roughly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (54), and his xwOBA (.383) and actual wOBA (.378) nearly match. He’a also defying the aging curve in the outfield, having accounted for five DRS, three Outs Above Average and a 2.1 UZR.

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF, Red Sox: Some of the names at the absolute top of the xwOBA leaderboard include – to no one’s surprise – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout, Matt Carpenter, Joey Votto … and Pearce, who has outdone all of them except Betts. Granted, Pearce’s ridiculous .465 xwOBA has come over a mere 164 PAs, though both his Statcast numbers and his .301/.384/.566 line (156 wRC+) continue a recent history of quality offense from the late-blooming journeyman – one who has played for every AL East team since 2012. Considering Pearce will turn 36 next April and has never even accumulated 400 PAs in an individual season, it’s fair to say he’s not going to break the bank over the winter. Nevertheless, the right-handed hitter has emerged as an important piece for the seemingly unstoppable Red Sox and will continue to make his case for a nice payday into the fall.

Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics: Lowrie will turn 35 next April, making him yet another player on this list whose age will damage his financial aspirations. Still, the switch-hitter’s in the second straight season of a late-career resurgence and has been among the A’s premier players this year in a shockingly great campaign for the club. Injuries have held back Lowrie for the majority of his time in the majors, but not lately – he appeared in 153 of the A’s games in 2017 and has taken the field 113 times out a possible 116 this year. Lowrie’s now amid a season in which he has smacked a career-high 17 HRs and hit .265/.344/.451 (120 wRC+) in 485 PAs.

Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals: The Nats’ signing of Adams to a one-year, $4MM deal last winter didn’t elicit much excitement at the time, but it now looks like one of the best buys of last offseason. While the lefty-hitting Adams, 29, has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers, he has mashed righties en route to an overall line of .270/.347/.536 (134 wRC+) with 18 dingers and a .266 ISO in 265 PAs. Statcast suggests the production hasn’t been smoke and mirrors, evidenced by the minuscule gap between Adams’ wOBA (.374) and xwOBA (.375). And for what it’s worth, Adams has continued to show off a solid glove at first, where DRS has graded him as a plus defender in all but one season since debuting in 2012.

Mark Reynolds, 1B, Nationals: Like Adams, Reynolds has been a steal for Washington, which added him on a minor league pact in early April. Since then, all the 35-year-old Reynolds has done is record a .272/.361/.537 line (137 wRC+) with 11 homers and a .265 ISO through 158 PAs. As Jeff Todd noted earlier this week, defensive and baserunning limitations detract from Reynolds’ value. However, after settling for minors deals in 2017 and ’18, perhaps the well-traveled power hitter has impressed enough as a part-time player for the Nationals to earn a major league contract during the upcoming winter.

Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Phillies: The switch-hitting Cabrera, 32, has been a respectable offensive player throughout his career, and he hasn’t fallen off at all in 2018. This has been among Cabrera’s most productive years yet, in fact, as he has batted .272/.324/.480 (118 wRC+) with 20 homers and a .208 ISO in 454 PAs. That’s terrific output from someone who can line up around the infield, though with a disastrous minus-16 DRS, Cabrera has been a butcher at second base – his primary position.

Daniel Descalso, 2B/3B, Diamondbacks: The third D-back on this list, the 31-year-old Descalso has saved his best offensive season for the right time as free agency awaits. A below-average offensive producer in each season from 2010-17, Descalso has registered an appealing 123 wRC+ this year while hitting .256/.377/.450 with nine homers, a .195 ISO and a 16.4 percent walk rate. And with a .362 xwOBA, that production hasn’t been a fluke. On the other hand, Descalso hasn’t been nearly that effective as a defender at third, where he has notched minus-seven DRS in 240 innings.

Honorable mention: Indians outfielder Michael Brantley, who has finally stayed healthy this year after missing a combined 223 games from 2016-17. Through 103 games/454 PAs in 2018, Brantley has hit .293/.345/.455 (116 wRC+) with 12 HRs and almost as many walks (32) as strikeouts (38). However, the 31-year-old’s Brantley’s numbers have gone downhill to a substantial degree since a red-hot first two months, and his work in left field has drawn poor reviews (minus-nine DRS, minus-six Outs Above Average, minus-4.4 UZR).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We just performed this exercise for position players; now, we’ll look at the best-performing starters who inked minor-league pacts last winter. With a helpful head start from many of the commenters in the above post, I’ve identified the rotation pieces that couldn’t get 40-man spots in the offseason but have nevertheless emerged as useful big league performers in 2018.

Unlike the group of hitters, many of the names that will appear below also showed up on our early-season glance at minor-league signees from the starting pitching ranks. Indeed, every member of the original list warrants some mention here.

Without further ado …

• Dereck Rodriguez, Giants: The bonanza of the 2017-18 minor-league class, Rodriguez has been one of the most impressive rookie starters in all of baseball despite being allowed to reach minor-league free agency last fall by the Twins. It’s unlikely he’s a true-talent 2.34 ERA pitcher — in particular, it seems doubtful he’ll continue to hold opposing hitters to a .264 BABIP and 5.7% home run rate — but he’s certainly producing quality peripherals (3.14 FIP / 4.01 xFIP / 4.08 SIERA). In any event, warning about regression for Rodriguez is like somewhat akin to raising concerns with the futures market for gold after your neighbor discovers a lode in her backyard. The Giants can count their found fortune later; for now, it’s enough that they’ve already received a huge contribution from Rodriguez and control him for six more seasons to come.
• Wade LeBlanc, Mariners: Though he signed a MLB deal with Seattle just before the start of the season, that was a minimal commitment ($650K) that was only handed out after LeBlanc had been released from his minors pact with the Yankees. Accordingly, we’ll consider him a part of the field. LeBlanc pitched so well in the first half of the year that he landed a rare mid-season extension. The results haven’t been as good since, but LeBlanc still owns a strong 3.81 ERA through 113 1/3 innings with 7.1 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9.
• Derek Holland, Giants: Though he hasn’t produced bottom-line results as impressive as those maintained by Rodriguez or some others on the list, Holland is filling up innings with solid overall outcomes for San Francisco. He’s now through 124 2/3 frames of 3.97 ERA ball; this is already his most productive season since way back in 2013. This still isn’t the pre-injury version of Holland. He once threw about two miles an hour harder, after all. But he’s carrying a career-high 10.7% swinging-strike rate this year and now seems in line for a major-league contract next winter.
• Jeremy Hellickson, Nationals: It’s sobering to think about how an already-tough Nats season would look without Hellickson. He’s carrying a 3.54 ERA through 84 innings, with 6.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 along with a 46.2% groundball rate. Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators value him more as a low-4’s type of pitcher, but that’s still a useful back-of-the-rotation piece.
• Anibal Sanchez, Braves: Given the depth and duration of his struggles in recent seasons, it’s all the more surprising to see Sanchez performing so well. He has finally gotten a hold on the homer problems that plagued him. Though he’s certainly benefiting from an unsustainable .243 BABIP-against in producing his sparkling 2.83 ERA over 86 frames, Sanchez’s contributions to date are valued in the high-3 ERA-equivalent range by estimators. He has been exactly what the Braves needed for a youthful staff.
• Clay Buchholz, Diamondbacks: Long a talented pitcher when things are clicking, Buchholz has been on since heading to Arizona. He’s through 64 frames with a 2.67 ERA. Though regression seems in store, and his velocity is well off his peak levels, Buchholz is getting whiffs at nearly a career-high rate.
• Edwin Jackson, Athletics: It’s only eight starts, but they’ve been awfully useful ones. The veteran hurler has given the A’s 47 frames of 2.87 ERA pitching since finding his way to the organization in the middle of the season. ERA estimators don’t really think he has pitched that well, as he’s sporting a 4.01 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, and 4.57 SIERA. The Oakland ballclub, too, surely knows that Jackson — like some of its other veteran hurlers — can’t be relied upon to keep up his current level of production, which helps explain the recent addition of Mike Fiers and a slew of relief pitchers. Still, Jackson has already made a nice contribution since joining his record-tying 13th MLB team.
• Tyson Ross, Padres/Cardinals: When last we looked, Ross had a 3.28 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. He has faded since, but still gave the Padres 22 starts and 123 1/3 frames of 4.45 ERA ball on the whole. Ross has shown some hints of his vintage skillset at times this year, but hasn’t sustained it over full outings or a full season as a starter. Now, it seems, he’ll be viewed as some kind of hybrid reliever in St. Louis, perhaps offering an opportunity to unlock some hidden value for the 31-year-old.
• Honorable Mention: There are a few more hurlers who’ll surely come to mind for some, but who I felt didn’t deserve full features. Wade Miley has a 2.10 ERA for the Brewers, but it’s only over 34 1/3 innings and the peripherals aren’t very appealing. Brett Anderson (Athletics), Yovani Gallardo and Austin Bibens-Dirkx (Rangers) have given some innings, but not enough or good enough to warrant inclusion. The age-defying Bartolo Colon has certainly reached some notable milestones and compiled some frames, filling up 130 1/3 for the Rangers, but really has not been very effective. Trevor Cahill quite likely would have ended up on this list, but he waited things out and landed an MLB deal late in Spring Training. As Jeff Sullivan wrote recently, that has panned out quite nicely for the Athletics.

So, who’d I miss? Let me know in the comments!