Archives for April 2018

Questions Remaining

Last year was disastrous for the Mariners’ rotation, which suffered through a host of injuries – including to James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and the now-departed Drew Smyly – and concluded the campaign 18th in ERA and 25th in fWAR. Still, the Mariners entered the offseason with only two potential openings among the group behind Paxton, Hernandez and Leake (an August acquisition last year).

Expectations were that Seattle would land at least one new starter via major league free agency or the trade route during the offseason, but it’s instead returning a bunch of holdovers (including Iwakuma, who’s back on a minors deal). It wasn’t for lack of trying with regard to two-way Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani, though, as Dipoto exerted plenty of effort to reel in the ballyhooed 23-year-old. Dipoto made it known from the get-go that the Mariners wanted Ohtani, who, because of the rules in the new collective bargaining agreement, could only receive a bonus worth a few million dollars at most (though the winning bidder also had to pay his former Japanese team $20MM). Further, Ohtani was forced to sign a minor league contract that would keep him under team control for six years.

“We want to sell the Seattle experience,” Dipoto said in November. “What it means to the Japanese-American, our culture and how this organization has trended — and trended so positively — when we have a star Japanese player. And make no mistake — this is a star Japanese player. He’s talented. He’s gifted. He’s going to make some team a lot better.”

Dipoto added that the Mariners weren’t “going to leave a stone unturned” with respect to trading for bonus pool money, hoping that acquiring it would better their chances of signing Ohtani. The GM was true to his word, as he made a pair of deals to pick up an extra $1.5MM. In doing so, he gave the Mariners one of the league’s largest international spending capacities; however, because of the CBA, Ohtani’s immigration to the majors was never going to be about money. Thanks in part to that, the Mariners’ quest to reel in Ohtani went for naught. Worse, Ohtani ended up with the AL West rival Angels, with whom he’ll slot in near the top of the rotation and occasionally function as a designated hitter.

Dipoto took the decision in stride publicly, saying he was “happy for” Ohtani, yet there’s little doubt it stung then and still does (Ohtani’s spring struggles notwithstanding). But the offseason was only about a month old at that point, leaving Dipoto time to regroup and address the Mariners’ rotation in some other way. That didn’t happen to any notable extent, even though CEO John Stanton told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times in January that payroll’s “not an issue” for the club. At the same time, Dipoto suggested it would be unwise for the Mariners to splurge on a pitcher in free agency, where the likes of Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb were among those still available, or further subtract from their weak farm system to acquire one via trade.

“We are doing the best we can to develop our system, not to clog it,” Dipoto said. “Could we go out and sign a free agent that would be better than our current fifth starter? Absolutely. Would that be the best thing for the present of the Mariners? Maybe. Would it be the best thing through the wider lens for the present and future of the Mariners? Probably not. We’ll be able to address those needs as we go. Because the one thing we’ve not had to deal with here is a lack of resources.”

Because the Mariners chose to stay in house after losing the Ohtani sweepstakes, they’re left with some obvious question marks in their rotation (and that’s true even if Paxton and Hernandez stay healthy, which is a dangerous assumption). Marco Gonzales and Erasmo Ramirez look to be the Mariners’ best healthy options behind Paxton, King Felix and Leake, while 2017 innings leader Ariel Miranda, Robert Whalen, Andrew Moore, Max Povse and Chase De Jong represent the rest of the starters on their 40-man roster. The only somewhat established major leaguers from that group are Ramirez and Miranda, but they’ve combined for an uninspiring 3.8 fWAR in 810 innings. And because of the lat strain he suffered in February, Ramirez won’t be ready by the time the M’s need to use a fifth starter for the first time this year (April 11).

While Seattle’s starting staff looks iffy, the same is true regarding its bullpen in the wake of injuries to Phelps, the recently released Tony Zych (shoulder) and offseason addition Nick Rumbelow (neck strain). That trio’s 11th-hour issues put Dipoto in an unenviable position in the spring, though he did work to shore up depth by adding LeBlanc, Erik Goeddel (minors contract) and Dario Alvarez (waivers). Neither Goeddel nor Alvarez made the Mariners’ season-opening bullpen, which features closer Edwin Diaz, Nick Vincent, Nicasio, Marc Rzepczynski and James Pazos in key roles. LeBlanc, Dan Altavilla and Casey Lawrence are filling out the octet to start the year. Chasen Bradford, Shawn Armstrong and Mike Morin are also among those on hand as depth. So is Ryan Cook, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2015 after Tommy John surgery knocked a promising career off track.

Speaking of players whose halcyon days could be long gone, the Mariners brought in a pair of aged outfielders prior to the season in the aforementioned Ichiro and the just-signed Jayson Werth. The latter got a minor league pact after stumbling through an injury-shortened season with the Nationals in 2017. Thus, even if the 38-year-old Werth does find his way to Seattle, he’s no lock to produce. Considering his age and defensive limitations, Werth seems better suited for a designated hitter role than an outfield job at this point; however, he hasn’t brought a DH-caliber bat to the table in a few years, and the Mariners have Cruz there anyway.

The Mariners’ lack of aggressiveness in upgrading their corner outfield came in spite of the fact that the 25-year-old Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, 27, haven’t offered eye-opening production in the majors. Gamel was fine as a rookie in 2017 (.275/.322/.413, 1.6 fWAR in 550 PAs), but he tailed off badly after a successful, .422 BABIP-fueled first half. He’s now on the DL after suffering a strained right oblique in early March. Heredia, meanwhile, has only managed a .248/.321/.332 line and 0.3 fWAR in 534 PAs since debuting in 2016. To his credit, the righty-hitting Heredia did hold his own against left-handed pitching last season despite playing through a shoulder injury that later required surgery.

Between Heredia and the lefty-hitting Gamel, the Mariners may have a useful, inexpensive platoon to put in left alongside Gordon in center and Haniger in right. However, given that both Gamel and Heredia are unproven and have minor league options remaining, there’s a case that the Mariners should’ve landed a surer fallback option than Ichiro earlier in the offseason. They did reportedly have interest in Jay Bruce in free agency, but he went back to the Mets on a fairly rich deal (three years, $39MM).

First base and outfield aside, the Mariners began the season with proven entities throughout their starting lineup, as mentioned earlier. But there are questions about a couple of their bench spots, particularly in the infield and behind the plate (in fairness to Seattle, it’s likely hard to attract quality infield reserves in free agency with Cano, Segura and Seager entrenched in their spots).

Utilityman Taylor Motter played all over the diamond in 2017, but he struggled along the way, helping lead to both his minor league demotion to open 2018 and the addition of Andrew Romine off waivers from Detroit back in November. The 32-year-old Romine has never been any kind of solution either, though, despite bringing similar defensive versatility to Motter.

Elsewhere, Seattle’s hope is that its new backup catcher will approach or better the output of Zunino’s backup from 2017, Carlos Ruiz, who’s still unsigned. Rather than replace Ruiz from outside, the Mariners are going with Mike Marjama, whom they acquired in a minor trade with the Rays last August. Marjama then hit a miserable .167/.244/.346 in 86 PAs with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate, though he was far better with the Rays’ (.274/.342/.445 in 292 PAs). Marjama’s a former infielder who hasn’t been catching for that long – something Kate Preusser of Lookout Landing pointed out last summer as part of an in-depth piece – but the Mariners are bullish on his all-around work.

“I think comfort level with the pitching staff is key for him,” Mariners manager Scott Servais told TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune. “We like what he brings offensively and he’s showed well behind the plate. He’s making adjustments with our pitching. The more he catches our pitchers and the more comfortable he gets with them the better he’ll be. But the other parts of his game are really nice.”

Zunino’s injury, albeit fairly minor, has put Marjama to the test immediately this year. While Marjama hasn’t gotten a hit yet, Servais raved about his defensive performance after the M’s Opening Day win over Cleveland.

Overview

Last season’s 78-win showing was a massive disappointment for Seattle, which entered the year with legitimate playoff aspirations after piling up 86 victories in 2016. Injuries, particularly to the Mariners’ pitching staff, helped derail those hopes. Now, they’ll likely need far healthier campaigns from the likes of Paxton and Hernandez in order to have any shot to contend for a playoff spot in what should be a jam-packed race in the American League. An AL West crown is all but out of the question with the reigning World Series champion Astros standing in the Mariners’ way, which will leave them to vie for one of the two wild-card positions.

Expecting Seattle to finally break its playoff drought would be overly optimistic, but if legitimate improvement isn’t shown, it could spell trouble for the club’s third-year GM. Dipoto’s without a contract beyond this season, potentially his last atop the Mariners.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.