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Marlins Activate J.T. Realmuto

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The Marlins announced today that they’ve activated catcher J.T. Realmuto from the 10-day disabled list. Realmuto, who opened the season on the shelf due to a lower back contusion, went 3-for-3 with a homer in his lone rehab game and will jump right into the mix in Miami, as he’s in the lineup tonight. Fellow catcher Chad Wallach was optioned to Triple-A New Orleans to clear a spot on the roster.

Realmuto, 27, was the subject of a cavalcade of trade rumors this offseason as the Marlins tore down the majority of their roster, trading away stars Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Realmuto’s agent reportedly made it clear to the club that he, too, would prefer a trade, but he instead remains on hand as perhaps the lone star left on a new-look roster.

Miami is off to a 4-12 start to the season, though the return of Realmuto should help to bolster the lineup. The 27-year-old has steadily improved in each of his seasons at the big league level and is now widely considered to be one of the game’s top all-around backstops. Last year, in a career-high 579 plate appearances, Realmuto hit .278/.332/.451 with 17 homers and eight steals while also controlling the running game well (32 percent caught-stealing) and delivering strong pitch-framing marks.

The Marlins control Realmuto through the 2020 season, and given the turnover elsewhere on the roster, it stands to reason that he could once again come up in trade talks this summer. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reported the other day that the Fish don’t have any current desire to shop Realmuto, though that could change, of course, if enough contending clubs are in need of catching help this summer. At the very least, one has to imagine that Miami president of baseball ops Michael Hill and the rest of the Marlins’ front office will be open-minded about the possibility of a trade — especially given the team’s poor start and their likely status as the NL East’s cellar dweller in 2018.

Poll: When Should The Braves Promote Ronald Acuna?

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The topic of whether top prospect Ronald Acuna should be in the Majors or in Triple-A is one of the most oft-discussed topics certainly among Braves fans but also among fans throughout the league. The 20-year-old, after all, has been widely billed as a phenom in the waiting and topped the majority of prospect rankings from major outlets this offseason (with the occasional exception of Shohei Ohtani, when he was deemed eligible for such lists).

Ronald Acuna | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Acuna opened the 2017 season in Class-A Advanced and skyrocketed to Triple-A by season’s end. The Venezuelan-born slugger didn’t just move up the ladder, though; his numbers actually improved upon each promotion, culminating with a .344/.393/.548 line in Triple-A.

Overall, Acuna slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 homers, 31 doubles, eight triples and 44 steals across three minor league levels in 2017 — and he did so all before turning 20 years of age this past December. Even before reading any of the many glowing scouting reports on Acuna, it’s abundantly clear that he’s a special talent. Teenagers simply don’t perform that well in pro ball.

Entering the season, the thought was that the Braves, like many teams do with elite prospects, would take advantage of Major League Baseball’s service time infrastructure and hold Acuna in the minors long enough to delay his free agency by a year. Doing so would only require him to be in Gwinnett until mid-April. While some may bristle at the notion, it’s hard to argue, from a front-office standpoint, that the extra two weeks of games in 2018 are worth sacrificing Acuna’s entire 2024 season — his age-27 campaign. Keeping Acuna in the minors for those couple of weeks makes perfect sense from a long-term view.

That date has come and gone, however, meaning the Braves can bring their vaunted wunderkind to the Majors at any point, knowing he’ll be controlled through 2024. Bringing him up now would mean allowing him to reach arbitration four times as a Super Two player rather than the standard three times, but that’s of relatively minimal consequence — at least when juxtaposed with the notion of losing an entire year of club control over his prime.

But although Acuna dominated Grapefruit League play in Spring Training (.432/.519/.727), that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. It’s only nine games and 41 plate appearances, of course, but Acuna is hitting .139/.244/.167 in Triple-A. After striking out at a 19.8 percent clip last season, he’s already whiffed 14 times in 41 plate appearances (34.1 percent).

None of that does anything to change the perception that Acuna is a star in the making, but it stands to reason that the Braves may not relish the idea of taking a struggling 20-year-old and bringing him to the big leagues to face even tougher competition. It doesn’t help that Preston Tucker has filled in capably at the big league level. Even though the 27-year-old likely isn’t a long-term piece, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that his start isn’t sustainable, the fact remains that the Braves have gotten some production out of Acuna’s would-be spot in the lineup.

That, of course, isn’t deemed a good enough reason for Acuna to be in the minors for many. Narratives on his brief minor league struggles will suggest that he’s pressing to earn a promotion or not engaged enough by the lack of competition. Atlanta skipper Brian Snitker went with the similarly nebulous explanation that Acuna is “trying too hard” at the moment (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman). It’s understandable if Braves fans want to see him up at all costs; it’s been a lengthy rebuilding process down in Georgia, and Acuna’s arrival could in many ways mark a move back toward contention. It’s also true that attendance figures would likely spike, at least in the short term, the moment that Acuna is called upon for his highly anticipated debut. And if he’s anything close to the player that most believe he will be, there’s also an argument to be made that Acuna ought to be added to a ballclub that has played rather well and may yet be a fringe postseason contender.

All of those factors enter into the calculus of when Acuna will be brought to the big leagues. It’s a decision the Atlanta front office won’t make lightly, as the last thing first-year GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff want to do is have to demote Acuna back to Gwinnett if he struggles out of the gate. At the same time, Anthopoulos & Co. are no doubt cognizant of the fanbase’s desire to see Acuna attack Major League pitching and of the manner in which a strong arrival on the scene would invigorate the Atlanta faithful.

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 4/17/18

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Here are Tuesday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Tigers re-signed catcher Kade Scivicque to a minor league contract and assigned him to Double-A Erie yesterday, as Tom Reisenweber of the Erie Times-News first tweeted. The 25-year-old Scivicque was Detroit’s fourth-round pick back in 2015, but the Tigers shipped him to the Braves in the 2016 trade that netted them veteran infielder Erick Aybar. Scivicque hit .270/.326/.365 between the Braves’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season and threw out 27 percent of opposing base thieves while posting slightly below-average framing marks, per Baseball Prospectus. With Grayson Greiner and Jarrod Saltalamacchia occupying catching spots for the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate in Toledo, Scivicque will head to Double-A despite posting respectable numbers in Gwinnett last season.

AL West Notes: Ohtani, Profar, Cahill, Mariners

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Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register runs through a number of factors that could contribute to the remarkable discrepancy between Shohei Ohtani’s uninspiring spring performance and his dominance on both sides of the ball during the regular season. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic highlights (subscription link) Ohtani’s ravenous consumption of data and analytics that the Angels are providing him and his ability to make unnaturally quick adjustments. Veterans Ian Kinsler and Chris Young marveled to both Fletcher and Rosenthal about Ohtani’s work ethic and adaptability, while hitting coach Eric Hinske praised his willingness to ditch a leg kick he had long utilized at the plate in an effort to make his swing more efficient. Pitching coach Charles Nagy and catcher Martin Maldonado also weighed in on the way in which Ohtani has quickly adapted to his new environs while taking MLB by storm.

More from the division…

  • Jurickson Profar exited Monday night’s game after a rough landing upon being upended by a sliding Mallex Smith at second base and is currently in MLB’s concussion protocol, as Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes. Even a short-term absence for Profar would further devastate the Rangers’ middle infield depth, as both Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus are currently on the shelf. As Fraley points out, Eliezer Alvarez is the only middle infielder in the minors that’s on Texas’ 40-man roster, but he’s primarily a second baseman. Hanser Alberto could see his contract selected if Profar needs to go on the disabled list, though that’d require a corresponding 40-man move. Andrus is the only player who presently stands out as a potential 60-day DL candidate to make that move, but the initial prognosis on him called for a recovery of six to eight weeks. If the Rangers are optimistic that he can return on the shorter end of that window, they won’t want to lock him into a 60-day absence, creating the possibility that they’ll need to designate someone for assignment.
  • The Athletics will call on right-hander Trevor Cahill to take the ball in tonight’s game against the White Sox, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee writes. Oakland brought Cahill back to the organization on a one-year, $1.5MM deal late in Spring Training after it was learned that young righty Jharel Cotton would require Tommy John surgery. The veteran Cahill, who broke into the Majors with the A’s back in 2009, has made a pair of starts in the minors as he builds up arm strength and tossed 83 pitches in his most recent outing, Lee notes. Manager Bob Melvin said that the right-hander might be able to go a bit longer than that this time out, though it obviously Cahill’s performance will dictate what type of leash he’s given.
  • The Mariners are facing a significant number of roster decisions in the coming days, beginning with the debate over how to clear space on the 25-man roster for fifth starter Ariel Miranda tonight, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. Seattle also needs to find space to activate Ben Gamel from the disabled list, as he’s now played nine games on his minor league rehab assignment and is largely ready for big league activity. But Gamel’s return presents its own set of issues, as the club will face a decision on struggling 44-year-old Ichiro Suzuki. As Johns examines at much greater length, the team essentially needs to determine whether it’s best to move forth with a seven- or eight-man bullpen while also clearing space for a few returning regulars and making some sort of determination on Ichiro.

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Peterson

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Given the loss of Kevin Kiermaier for upwards of three months and an ugly 4-12 start to the season, the Rays ought to be open to selling veteran pieces right now rather than waiting until the summer, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While there’s some logic to hold onto Chris Archer until later this year, particularly given his advantageous contract, Topkin argues in favor of trading other veterans such as Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, Alex Colome and Denard Span in the near future. Beyond that, however, Topkin posits that the Rays should make those moves as a means of paving way for well-regarded prospects like Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo and Jake Bauers, rather than just swapping out their veteran assets for stopgaps and replacement-level fillers. With the Rays already 9.5 games out of first place in the division, Baseball Prospectus pegs Tampa Bay’s postseason odds at just seven percent, while Fangraphs’ projections give the Rays a minuscule 0.2 percent chance of even securing a Wild Card berth.

  • WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford takes a look back at the Red Sox’ efforts to sign Shohei Ohtani out of high school back in 2013, chatting with then-Red Sox scouts Jon Deeble and Eddie Romero about their initial meeting with Ohtani. (Deeble is now the Dodgers’Pacific Rim director, while Romero is an assistant GM in Boston.) Both men recall Boston’s tireless pursuit of the player who Romero describes as “the best pitching prospect I had ever seen.” Ben Cherington, the Red Sox’ GM at the time, gave Deeble and Romero the green light to pursue Ohtani as aggressively as possible — including an agreement to let him develop as a two-way player if he signed with Boston. The Red Sox and Dodgers, Deeble suggests, would likely have been the finalists for Ohtani had he signed with a big league club out of high school, but NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters were ultimately able to convince Ohtani to begin his professional career in his home country. Bradford’s column is full of quotes from Deeble and Romero on Ohtani as an amateur and a very interesting pursuit, which makes for a fun look back at what might have been.
  • Jonathan Schoop’s injury could push the Orioles to look outside the organization for some infield depth, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko notes that the O’s have held interest in Erick Aybar in the past, and the longtime Angels shortstop is currently unsigned after spending much of Spring Training with the Twins. Kubatko also indicates that the Orioles had interest in bringing Jace Peterson aboard after his DFA from the Yankees, but the Yanks were able to bring him back on board by offering a more lucrative split contract to the utilityman. “A number of teams” had interest in Peterson, per Kubatko, but he’ll remain in the Bronx for the time being.

2018-19 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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All of our top 50 free agents from the 2017-18 offseason have signed, concluding a free agent freeze the likes of which we’ve never seen in MLBTR’s 12-year history.  With Masahiro Tanaka choosing not to opt out and the Indians picking up their option on Michael Brantley, here are the grisly numbers on the 48 free agents from our list.

  • Predicted total dollars: $1,650,000,000.  Actual total dollars: $1,275,000,000.  These 48 free agents received 77.3% of what was predicted for them.
  • 37.5% of players received fewer years than expected, 54.2% received exactly as many years as expected, and 8.3% received more years than expected.  Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, Logan Morrison, and Addison Reed received at least two fewer years than expected.
  • 64.6% of players received fewer total dollars than expected, 6.3% received exactly as many dollars as expected, and 29.2% received more dollars than expected.  Tyler Chatwood, Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain exceeded their projections by $10MM or more.  14 players fell at least $10MM short of projections, led by Moustakas ($78.5MM short), Lynn ($44MM short), and J.D. Martinez ($40MM short).
  • These seven players had to settle for one-year deals in the $3-6.5MM range despite projections of at least $12MM: Moustakas, Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Neil Walker, and Jon Jay.

For a laugh, check out the image I had made up on March 14th, 2017 of my top projected free agents.  Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto wisely chose not to opt out after questionable seasons, Lucroy signed for peanuts, and top pitchers Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta fell short of expectations.  At least we had J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer at #6-7.

The 2018-19 free agent market will be different.  I do think there is an unfortunate new reality for most good-but-not-great veteran free agents.  Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon, 32 in July, recognized the downside risk and accepted an extension worth five years and $94MM in new money.   But this class still looks legendary because of the talent at the top.

1.  Bryce Harper.  Before his 2012 Rookie of the Year season, Baseball America called Harper “the most hyped position player prospect in baseball history.”  Seemingly groomed for MLB stardom from birth, Harper graduated high school early and fast-tracked himself to make his debut with the Nationals at age 19.  He’s only missed the All-Star team once in his career, and won the NL MVP in 2015.  Harper stands alongside Mike Trout and Joey Votto as one of the best hitters in baseball, combining power and patience from the left side of the plate.  Due to his early debut and avoidance of contract extensions, Harper stands to reach free agency as a 26-year-old.

Aside from the sky-high price tag, only Harper’s injury history could give teams pause.  Harper has gone on the disabled list three times in his career, missing anywhere from 35-65 days with each injury.  He suffered knee and thumb injuries in 2013 and ’14, respectively, that resulted from his all-out style of play.  Both ultimately required surgery.  Harper rebounded to play in 300 games from 2015-16, but suffered a bone bruise in his left knee last August that kept him out for a month and a half.  Harper is healthy and raking early in 2018, and something close to 150 games played should quiet injury concerns.

Though he understandably refuses to discuss his free agency with reporters this year, MLB fans expect an epic experience with the Winter Meetings taking place in Harper’s hometown Las Vegas.  18 years after opinionated agent Scott Boras brokered Alex Rodriguez’s precedent-shattering 10-year, $252MM free agent contract with the Rangers, he’ll attempt to raise the bar with Harper.  Harper figures to easily surpass the current record contract, Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal from November 2014.  Aside from beating that total by more than $100MM, Boras will also aim to destroy the current average annual value record, the $34.4MM Zack Greinke is earning.  A half billion dollars could be in play.  Harper could land anywhere from $400-500MM over 10-14 years.  Opt-out clauses will likely be scattered throughout, allowing Harper the opportunity to later break his own record.

2.  Manny Machado.  About three months after Harper debuted in 2012, Machado reached the Majors as the Orioles’ third baseman.  Just a few months older than Harper, Machado was also a first-round prodigy.  Machado’s bat took longer to blossom, with a power surge in his fourth season.  Machado is well-known for his defense on the left side of the infield.  He came up as a shortstop, but began his big league career at third base to accommodate J.J. Hardy.  Machado became an elite defender at the hot corner, winning three Gold Gloves.  His ascent was interrupted when he tore the medial patellar ligament in his left knee in September 2013, pushing his 2014 debut into May. Several months later, Machado sprained a ligament in the other knee, also necessitating surgery.  The knee injuries are behind him, as Machado averaged 158 games from 2015-17.  He played a couple months of shortstop in the summer of 2016 when Hardy got hurt, and convinced the Orioles to shift him back to his natural position for the 2018 season.  In addition to establishing himself as an above-average defensive shortstop, Machado must shake off mediocre offensive output from 2017, when he posted a .310 OBP.

Machado endured trade rumors throughout the offseason, and could be dealt this summer if the Orioles fall out of contention.  Though he’ll fall short of Harper’s contract, some teams may consider Machado a more balanced player with lower health risk.  Since he doesn’t turn 26 until July, Machado is also set up for a monster contract that could top $300MM.

3.  Clayton Kershaw.  Already an all-time great at age 30, Kershaw has been slowed only by his balky back.  He lost 74 days to a back injury in 2016 and another 39 last summer.  Kershaw otherwise remains at the top of his game.  He’s got three Cy Young awards (and an MVP) under his belt and even finished fifth in the Cy voting in 2016 (149 innings) and second last year (175 innings).  By measure of Wins Above Replacement, Kershaw ranks fourth in baseball among pitchers from 2016-17 despite pitching about 100 innings fewer than the three hurlers ranked ahead of him.  Logically, barring an in-season extension with the Dodgers, Kershaw will opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM left on his contract and explore free agency for the first time.  For teams formulating an offer, the primary forecasting question will be more about Kershaw’s health than his abilities.  How much time will the future Hall of Famer miss within the next seven or eight seasons?  Will he require back surgery at some point?  If Kershaw makes it through this season mostly unscathed, he’ll be primed to sign the largest contract ever for a starting pitcher, topping David Price’s seven-year, $217MM pact and Greinke’s $34.4MM average annual value.

4.  Josh Donaldson.  The Cubs drafted Donaldson 48th overall in 2007 as compensation for the loss of free agent Juan Pierre.  Donaldson had switched from third base to catcher during college, and Baseball America said he projected “as a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers a season.”  He was soon shipped to Oakland in the Rich Harden trade, and before the ’08 season BA noted that “some scouts question if he’ll hit enough to be a big league regular.”  Donaldson got a big league look in 2010, but he was still buried on the Athletics’ catching depth chart in 2011 at age 25.  His opportunity finally came in 2012 with a preseason injury to A’s third baseman Scott Sizemore.  Donaldson bounced up and down that year but started to emerge in the season’s final two months.  Finally, in 2013 at age 27, Donaldson established himself as one of the best third basemen in baseball.  He combined strong defense with increasing power to become a perennial MVP candidate.  The A’s traded him to Toronto in the 2014-15 offseason, and Donaldson won the MVP in his first season with his new team.  Last year marked his first appearance on the DL, as he lost more than a month to a calf injury.  Currently, he’s on the DL for right shoulder inflammation.  As a late bloomer, Donaldson will play his first season on his next contract as a 33-year-old.  In discussing his free agency with my MLBTR colleagues, I was the low man on his contract, not fully convinced a player with this profile can secure a four-year deal.  At the least, he’s a candidate for an AAV in the $25MM range.

5.  Craig Kimbrel.  A third round pick of the Braves in 2008, Kimbrel emerged as the best closer in baseball beginning in 2011.  Kimbrel racked up 185 saves for the Braves from 2011-14, inking an extension along the way that bought out his first two free agent years.  The Padres acquired him in 2015 in a rare April trade, capping off their ill-fated push for contention under A.J. Preller.  Seven months later Preller turned around and dealt Kimbrel to the Red Sox.  Kimbrel made his fifth All-Star game in his first season with Boston, though his walk rate spiked up to a dangerous level.  He more than corrected that problem in a dominant 2017, finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting.  Another vintage Kimbrel season may result in the largest reliever contract in baseball history.  Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal is the record, while Wade Davis set the high water mark for AAV at $17.3MM in December winter.  Kimbrel will likely be striving for a five-year deal, though he’ll pitch most of 2019 at age 31 (as opposed to Chapman and Kenley Jansen beginning their recent free agent deals at age 29).

6.  Patrick Corbin.  Corbin, a 28-year-old lefty, was a second-round pick of the Angels in 2009.  Near the trade deadline in 2010, he became the third piece headed to the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade.  Corbin bounced up and down with Arizona in 2012 and won the team’s fifth starter job out of camp in 2013.  At age 23, Corbin authored an excellent All-Star campaign over 208 1/3 innings.  In line to start Opening Day 2014, Corbin instead wound up getting Tommy John surgery in March that year.  About 15 months later, he was back on a Major League mound and acquitted himself well in 16 starts.  Corbin had a surprisingly rough 2016, losing his rotation job in mid-August after seeing his walk and home run rates spike.  He bounced back with a healthy 3.0 WAR season in 2017 and is off to a nice start this year.  Since that 2016 bottoming out, Corbin has increased his slider usage to the current 46.8%, throwing the pitch more often than any starter other than Chris Archer.  Corbin has youth on his side and will compete with Dallas Keuchel to be considered the best free agent starting pitcher, Non-Kershaw Division.  At nearly 19 months younger than Keuchel, age is on Corbin’s side.  After the 2015-16 free agent starting pitcher bonanza, in which seven pitchers signed for at least five years (excluding Kenta Maeda), only one starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, has reached five years in the past two offseasons.  That will likely be Corbin’s goal.

7.  Dallas Keuchel.  Compared to Corbin, Keuchel has age working against him, but the Astros lefty also has a Cy Young Award on his shelf from 2015.  Keuchel is a ground-ball machine when he’s on, including a 66.8% rate last year that was tops among starters with at least 140 innings.  Neck injuries caused Keuchel to miss more than two months in 2017, and a healthy season would increase his chances at a strong multi-year deal in free agency.  Keuchel’s profile as a soft-tossing southpaw who relies heavily on ground-balls could be spun either way — it’s not as exciting as a power arm with a more strikeout-oriented approach, but it could also be seen as a skill set that will age better than his peers who rely more on premium velocity.

8.  Brian Dozier.  The Twins drafted Dozier in the eighth round in 2009.  In his first Baseball America profile in 2011, they wrote, “His biggest weakness is his lack of power, as he doesn’t project to hit more than 5-10 homers annually.”  BA didn’t rate any of Dozier’s tools as above-average at the time, so he was even more of an underdog than Donaldson.  Dozier became the Twins’ Minor League Player of the Year that season, and was upgraded to a future Jamey Carroll type.  Twins manager Ron Gardenhire championed Dozier as more than a utility man, however, and indeed he took over for Carroll as the team’s starting shortstop in May 2012.  The 25-year-old rookie was demoted in August but bounced back to win the Twins’ starting second base job out of camp in 2013.  Dozier never looked back, hitting 17 home runs in his final 108 games that year.  The second baseman continued ramping up his power output over the years, peaking with 42 bombs in 2016.  By WAR, he was the 11th-best position player in baseball from 2016-17, exceeding the output of players like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.  Dozier will play most of 2019 at 32, so like Donaldson, his age will work against him in free agency.  Alex Gordon’s four-year, $72MM deal could be a target.

9.  A.J. Pollock.  Pollock, 30, was taken 17th overall by the Diamondbacks as part of their productive 2009 draft.  He made his Major League debut in 2012 upon an injury to Chris Young.  A spring 2013 injury to Adam Eaton opened up a door for Pollock, who logged most of the team’s innings in center field that year.  Eaton was traded that winter, further cementing Pollock’s position until a Johnny Cueto pitch broke his hand in late May, costing him three months.  Health was not a problem in Pollock’s incredible 2015 season, a .315/.367/.498 effort worth 6.8 WAR and MVP votes.  In 2016, an elbow injury derailed Pollock’s ascent to stardom.  The elbow fracture required surgery, as did a similar injury suffered by Pollock when he was in the minors in 2010.  Pollock appeared in just 12 games in 2016, and then lost 50 days in 2017 with a groin injury.  A healthy contract year is crucial as Pollock looks to achieve the five-year, $80MM center fielder standard set by Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain.

10.  Elvis Andrus.  Though Andrus is in his ninth season with the Rangers, he still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday.  Signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Braves, the Rangers acquired Andrus in the legendary Mark Teixeira trade near the July 2007 deadline.  Andrus became the Rangers’ starting shortstop as a 20-year-old in 2009, with Michael Young moving to third base to accommodate the rookie.  Renowned for his defense, speed, and makeup, Andrus settled in as a 2-3 WAR shortstop.  In April 2013, the Rangers signed Andrus to what GM Jon Daniels called “an unusual deal,” a record extension worth $120MM over eight years.  The contract allows Andrus to opt out after the 2018 or ’19 seasons.  He’s guaranteed $58MM over the next four years, so opting out this winter isn’t a slam dunk.  After serving as an iron man for nine seasons, Andrus will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken elbow that will not require surgery.  It’s the first DL trip of his career.  Further complicating Andrus’ value is his newfound power.  Though Andrus jumped up to a career-high 20 home runs last year, that plateau isn’t as special when 116 other players also accomplished it.  The result was a 110 wRC+, which contributed to a career-best 4.3 WAR.  Andrus’ safest move might be to avoid free agency, and instead convince the Rangers to guarantee his club/vesting option for 2023.

In addition to these ten players, another eight have a good shot at exceeding a $40MM free agent contract: Garrett Richards, Yasmani Grandal, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Andrew McCutchen, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz, and Andrew Miller.  Others may very well join that mix as the season progresses.  I’ll update these power rankings monthly, and I’m sure they’ll look very different by the time free agency actually begins.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Gyorko, Harrison, Hellickson, Kiermaier

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(April 16th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • TEXAS RANGERS | Depth Chart 
    • Added to 25-man roster: INF/OF Renato Nunez (claimed off waivers from Athletics on Sunday)
      • Nunez played LF and batted 6th on Monday.
    • Optioned: INF/OF Ryan Rua

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The early-offseason buzz on the Padres’ possible interest in adding an impact player came to fruition when Eric Hosmer inked the biggest contract in franchise history. They had also reportedly shown some interest in top free agent pitchers Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb. While the addition of Hosmer isn’t expected to turn the Padres into an immediate contender — nor would’ve the signing of Arrieta or Cobb, for that matter — it’s another step towards building the organization’s next playoff-caliber roster.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Padres 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Padres Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

The Padres still believe that Wil Myers can take a step forward and live up to the $83MM contract he signed last offseason. And it’s not a stretch, either. He’s averaged 29 homers and 24 stolen bases over the past two seasons and he’s only 27 years old. But he wasn’t comfortable in the role of clubhouse leader, which is partly why the team decided to pursue Hosmer, who filled that role on a Royals team that had a successful three-year run that included back-to-back World Series appearances and a championship.

Valuing Hosmer was a topic of ample debate as his trip onto the open market drew near. Ultimately, the Pads and Royals decided he was worthy of a significant investment despite the fact that he’s not an overwhelming offensive force for a first baseman. Age (he’s just 28) plainly played a big role along with Hosmer’s oft-lauded makeup. Nobody questions that Hosmer is a quality big leaguer, and the hefty guarantee is spread over a lengthy term, but this type of signing always represents a notable risk for a lower-budget team.

In addition to Hosmer, the team solidified the left side of its infield by trading for Galvis and Headley. Neither is likely to deliver huge output over the full course of the season, but they’re both steady veterans who will raise the overall standard and provide a benchmark for the team’s youthful assets to measure themselves again. It’s certainly possible that either player could end up on the move over the summer.

The core of the bullpen — a unit compiled smartly from some unlikely places — remains intact. Craig Stammen, a successful reclamation project in 2017, was re-signed to a two-year deal over the winter. He’ll be joined by veteran Japanese hurler Kazuhisa Makita, who also signed an affordable multi-year pact.

Most notably, though, the Padres decided to keep closer Brad Hand off of the trade block. It had long seemed he’d be moved — it was rather shocking it didn’t happen last summer — after coming out of nowhere to become one of the game’s better high-leverage relievers over the past two seasons. While the potential to plug more young talent into the system was surely tantalizing, the team smartly took advantage of an opportunity to achieve value by investing further in Hand. The extension gives the organization control through the 2021 season at what looks to be quite an appealing rate for a high-quality closer that had already reached arbitration.

Filling out the rotation remained a need even after a late-season move to extend Clayton Richard. The Headley swap was designed primarily to bring in Bryan Mitchell, who has a big arm and will be given a chance to sink or swim in the majors. Veteran Chris Young lost a spring battle to make the staff, but old friend Tyson Ross opened some eyes in camp and has continued to show well early in the season. While the loss of intriguing youngster Dinelson Lamet has put a damper on things, the impressive arrival of 2016 fourth-rounder Joey Lucchesi has created some excitement in the early going. Robbie Erlin’s return after two seasons mostly lost to injury is also worth watching. He opened with some success in the pen and has now moved into the rotation, though his first start (just this evening) did not go as hoped.

Questions Remaining

Along with Hosmer and Myers, catcher Austin Hedges and center fielder Manuel Margot are all but locked in at their respective positions for the next several seasons. The team’s future double-play combination is expected to be made up of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias. Two of the best prospects in the game, both are on the fast track to San Diego, though they’ll have to earn their way up before being anointed. A lot can happen in one season, but it’s easy to imagine that group of players in the same lineup at some point in 2019. That would leave just two future lineup spots, third base and corner outfield, unsettled.

In all likelihood, the corner outfield spot opposite Myers will likely be filled internally by one or more of Franchy Cordero, Jose Pirela and Hunter Renfroe. All three will have a chance to make their case in 2018. Cordero, who dazzled at Triple-A in 2017 with his speed-power combination, did not join the competition right away after opening the year on the DL. But with Margot hitting the shelf with an early injury, Cordero has received a chance and is off to a nice start.

While the return of Headley gives the Padres some stability at the hot corner for at least the next few months, the team’s third baseman during their next window of contention is probably not in the organization at this time. A reunion between Hosmer and Moustakas, who could reach free agency once again next offseason, is intriguing. Filling the spot in-house is a slight possibility, although it would probably take a breakout season from second baseman Carlos Asuaje to convince the team to alter their plans for where Urias and Tatis end up on the diamond. A strong performance from Galvis, who the team could look to re-sign after the season, could also shake things up.

With an abundance of talented pitching prospects who could reach the Majors sometime over the next 2-3 seasons, the Padres are in great shape to fill out their pitching staff without having to add significantly to their payroll. Left-hander Eric Lauer should join Lucchesi at some point in 2018, while the next wave should be ready to make an impact next season. In the meantime, Erlin, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Perdomo will have every opportunity to prove that they can be a part of the rotation for years to come. Lamet will be counted on to reenter the picture at some point in 2019.

Overview

Hosmer is entering a situation that should seem like very familiar territory. As a highly-touted Royals prospect, he made his MLB debut in 2011. He was surrounded by talented young players, including Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez. There was a lot of hype surrounding this group, which only made it more frustrating for the fan base when the team suffered its eighth consecutive losing season. And then a ninth. That this group of players would help lead the team to 86 wins by 2013, their first post-season appearance in 19 years in 2014, and a World Series title in 2015, made it all the more special.

This Padres team is in the midst of — you guessed it — seven consecutive losing seasons. The streak is almost certain to reach eight. But they have the resources to turn things around quickly. Their farm system was ranked third in baseball by both Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law, while Baseball Prospectus ranked it first. General manager A.J. Preller has done a terrific job stockpiling young talent and still has payroll flexibility even after committing to Myers and Hosmer.

Signing Hosmer was not a pure win-now move, as he’s young enough to contribute for years to come. But it did represent a strong signal of the organization’s near-term aspirations. The organization’s first major outside acquisition since its failed gambit at producing a contender in Preller’s first year in town, Hosmer is evidently a believer. As I wrote in the Padres’ Offseason Outlook back in November, “If he’s convinced that the Padres are a team on the rise and on a road to contend by 2019, he could be willing to sign on.”

He signed on. I guess that means he thinks they can contend next season. But there’s still plenty of work to be done to fully establish a new winning core in San Diego.

How do you grade the Padres’ offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Victor Robles Will Not Require Surgery For Arm Injury

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Top Nationals prospect Victor Robles has avoided the worst-case scenario after recently suffering a worrisome arm injury, as Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post was among those to report on Twitter. While details remain scant, skipper Dave Martinez suggested that the team anticipates Robles will avoid surgery and be back at some point in the current season.

It seems that the Nats had largely resigned themselves to losing one of the game’s very best prospects for all of the 2018 season — which would have removed a key security blanket for a club that has endured an underwhelming opening to the new campaign. While he had been cleared of any fractures, the club evidently anticipated that an MRI would reveal some damage to Robles’s elbow, which was injured when his glove was trapped on a diving attempt at a catch in the outfield. The belief now appears to be that Robles will still need to spend a few months rehabbing, but will be able to get back into playing form this year after being cleared of any torn ligaments.

Though Robles obviously wasn’t on the MLB roster to open the year, this still registers as significant news for the Nationals’ near-term plans. With Michael Taylor limping to a .193/.233/.246 slash line out of the gates and Adam Eaton landing on the DL on the heels of a lengthy rehab, it’s certainly possible Robles would already have been called upon had he not been hurt.

Even if the plan called for him to stay at Triple-A for a while — he had skipped the level last year when he made a late-season debut in D.C. — Robles has long seemed to be a key potential mid-season addition. It’s arguable he could function as a major trade chip, too, though that always has felt unlikely given the organization’s near-term outfield needs, its unwillingness to deal Robles in the past, and his readiness to make his own contribution to a postseason push.

While the Nationals still need to get back to full health and find some improvements from within the current active roster, it’s something of a relief for the team to know that Robles could conceivably still be a factor at the MLB level this year. Even if that does not come to pass, the organization ought to be able to get some comfort with Robles’s status heading into the offseason, when some highly consequential decisions will be made on the future of the outfield.

Reds GM Dick Williams On Nick Senzel Timeline

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With the Reds off to a brutal start to the season, and recently extended third baseman Eugenio Suarez out with injury, attention has turned to the question whether and when the team will promote top infield prospect Nick Senzel. GM Dick Williams addressed the matter with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, emphasizing that the organization is focused first on Senzel’s development.

The second overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel has played to expectations since joining the professional ranks. He’s widely considered one of the ten or so best prospects in the game and knocked around both High-A and Double-A pitching in 2017.

Particularly with Suarez still on the mend, there’s clearly a place for Senzel in the Cincinnati infield. But Williams says the organization felt it wasn’t the right call to promote Senzel to fill in the need. For one thing, he had been playing in the middle infield since the start of Spring Training. Thus, it was “a more natural move” for the organization to turn to the less-hyped Alex Blandino (along with some veterans already on the MLB roster) for the time being.

Beyond that, the top Reds’ baseball decisionmaker said, the preference is for Senzel’s promotion “to be more dictated by his performance and confidence as opposed to being dictated by the situation” in the majors. Despite his extremely impressive effort last year, Senzel turned in a relatively tepid Cactus League performance and has carried that sluggishness into the early portion of the 2018 season at Triple-A Louisville.

Service time is often the elephant in the room, though at this point the Reds could promote Senzel whenever they wish while knowing he will be controllable for six future seasons. Of course, if he’s held down long enough — mid-June, perhaps, though the precise date won’t be known until after the fact — then Senzel might be kept from reaching arbitration a year early as a Super Two player.

Regardless, Williams says such considerations have not factored in. The club is focused on Senzel being fully prepared — “more than ready when he gets here, if that’s at all possible.” Williams says the hope is that, once Senzel is up, he’ll be in the majors for good. But just when that will come to pass is unclear. And in the meantime, disappointed fans are sure to continue expressing their frustrations.

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