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Rafael Montero Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Miss 2018 Season

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TODAY: Montero is headed back to New York this weekend and will undergo Tommy John surgery soon, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets.

YESTERDAY: Mets righty Rafael Montero has been diagnosed with a complete UCL tear, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. It is expected that he’ll require Tommy John surgery.

The news represents the latest disappointment for a pitcher who was once viewed as a future part of the New York rotation. Entering the coming season without an option year remaining, Montero had been fighting for one of the final bullpen slots this spring. He has allowed an earned run for each of the nine Grapefruit League innings he threw and therefore was already at risk of being outrighted.

To this point, Montero has worked to a middling 5.38 ERA in his 192 1/3 MLB innings. But he had earned his most extensive action to date in 2017 as the club dealt with a bevy of injuries, and there were some positive signs. Montero sat at 94 mph with his fastball, recorded a personal-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate, and drew groundballs at a 48.1% rate. He was likely unlucky to have surrendered a .366 BABIP, too, with Statcast showing a big split in his xwOBA (.316) and wOBA (.362).

For Montero to earn another shot at the majors, he’ll first have to undergo an extensive rehab process. The 27-year-old will accrue a full season of MLB service time while recovering, meaning he’ll be eligible for arbitration next fall. Though Montero likely won’t command a terribly steep rate of pay, salary and roster pressures may well compel the Mets to remove him from the 40-man at some point.

Jeff Samardzija Suffers Pec Injury, Will Begin Season On DL

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TODAY: Samardzija’s MRI revealed only a strained pectoral muscle, Andrew Baggarly writes in an updated piece.  The right-hander will be rested for 10 days, according to Giants skipper Bruce Bochy, so a DL stint still looks imminent.

YESTERDAY: The Giants are concerned that right-hander Jeff Samardzija may have a shoulder injury according to reports. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle was among the first to tweet the news. There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the situation, but “Shark” had an MRI today and is undergoing further examination on his throwing shoulder. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that it’s “pretty clear he will begin the season on the DL.”

We’re still awaiting further news on the subject (including the actual results of the MRI itself), but the absence of Samardzija for any significant portion of the season would prove a huge blow to a Giants club that was expected to contend this season following an offseason overhaul of a roster that lost 98 games in 2017. Baggarly tweets that left-handed non-roster invite Derek Holland is an option to replace him in the rotation. Baggarly also adds that the team is unlikely to pursue any free agents at this point, as Bruce Bochy says the team is looking at internal options.

That would leave just Holland, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton as the club’s feasible options behind mainstays Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. It’s also worth noting that the club has Tyler Beede (ranked the organization’s fourth-best prospect) set to begin the season at Triple-A. If the club were to explore free agents, they’d be parsing through a thin crop of remaining starters that includes Scott Feldman and Ubaldo Jimenez among the top remaining options.

The Giants were likely expecting another workhorse performance from the 33-year-old Samardzija, who’s one of just two pitchers in all of major league baseball to have thrown at least 200 innings in each of the past five seasons (the other being Max Scherzer). During that span, he’s put up a 4.10 ERA, and his 3.68 xFIP actually indicates that he’s pitched quite a bit better than that. He’s also struck out 8.09 batters per nine innings while limiting walks to just 2.18 per nine.

NL East Notes: Thompson, Ruiz, Gonzalez, Flores, Wheeler, Lugo

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It appears that the Phillies are transitioning right-hander Jake Thompson into a relief role, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Once part of the six-player return for Cole Hamels, Thompson has only made four relief appearances in his professional career (majors and minors included). Three of those appearances came last year, however, and he’s been used largely out of the bullpen in Grapefruit League play. Thompson says that nobody has directly told him he’ll become a reliever, but believes it to be the case. “They think the slider and split can work in short periods, miss bats and get ground balls,” Thompson said of Philadelphia’s coaching staff. “They’ve built up my pitch count a little bit, so if something happens I can still do both. I’m fine with it. Anything that can get me in the big leagues and stay I’d be willing to do.”

Other news from some of baseball’s Eastern teams…

  • It wasn’t long ago that Braves third baseman Rio Ruiz was struggling with a new swing and seemed destined to start the season in the minors, David O’Brien writes in a piece for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That outlook has changed dramatically, as Ruiz’ offensive output has been a lot more impressive over the past couple weeks. The 23-year-old’s uptick in production coincides with an injury to Johan Camargo, who’s set to open the season on the disabled list. Though the organization seems to believe Camargo can return as soon as he’s eligible, manager Brian Snitker left room for interpretation on whether Ruiz can stick at the position even then. ““Rio has worked his ass off the last couple of years. He’s getting better,” said Snitker. “You never know, situations happen, door gets opened and a guy doesn’t give it back. You never know.”
  • Mets manager Mickey Callaway says he doesn’t expect Adrian Gonzalez to play every day, and not even against every right-hander (h/t Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). That likely means more playing time for Wilmer Flores. “Wilmer deserves to play, and not just against lefties,” said Callaway. That’s not the only interesting comment Callaway made today, as he confirmed that Seth Lugo is being considered as a rotation candidate following an excellent Grapefruit League outing in which the right-hander struck out five while allowing no runs across four innings. The presence of Lugo in the rotation would likely make Zack Wheeler, who had another rough showing today, the odd man out. “”We have some big decisions to make,” Callaway said on the subject.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A much-anticipated offseason started off with unexpected front office turnover and ended up focusing squarely on the future.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Braves 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Whatever the Braves’ plans may have been heading into the offseason, they were jolted with the sudden and stunning downfall of former GM John Coppolella and eventual move of president of baseball operations John Hart out of his role atop the baseball hierarchy.

The former regime was toppled by a scandal arising out of the organization’s international signing practices. In addition to the front-office upheaval, the violations of MLB rules cost the organization its rights to several notable previously signed prospects and left it facing reduced international spending capabilities for several seasons as well as the loss of a third-round pick in the upcoming draft.

After dabbling in a move for former executive Dayton Moore, who instead remained with the Royals, the Atlanta organization struck a deal to bring in former Blue Jays GM and recent Dodgers exec Alex Anthopoulos. He’s now the top baseball decisionmaker in the Braves hierarchy.

Whether that shake-up changed the Braves’ plans for the 2017-18 winter will never really be known. But the organization certainly did not end up acting as many anticipated. Having opened Sun Trust Park last season and with an abundance of young talent reaching the majors, many anticipated that the organization would announce the beginning of the end of its rebuilding period by pursuing some significant additions via trade and/or free agency.

As it turned out, the Braves’ arguable on-field needs — including potential improvements at third base, the corner outfield, and the bullpen, along with veteran rotation help — were never really addressed, at least not in the manner of an organization that’s readying for contention. While the division-rival Phillies made two significant splashes and spent some real cash on their bullpen, the Braves pursued a course designed to clear future payroll capacity and support the ongoing development of internal talent.

The biggest need identified by Anthopoulos was not, say, finding a high-quality regular at the hot corner. Rather, it was figuring a way to move Matt Kemp and his significant remaining contractual obligations in an advantageous manner. After moving the remaining dollars owed to reliever Jim Johnson, Anthopoulos arrived at a fascinating money-shifting swap involving Kemp with none other than the organization he had just worked for. In a deal full of notable veteran names, the Braves shipped Kemp to the Dodgers in exchange for high-priced veterans Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Adrian Gonzalez — along with $4.5MM to make the deal entirely cash-neutral. Atlanta also landed versatile bench candidate Charlie Culberson.

The roster-clearing benefits for the Atlanta organization were clear. Moving Kemp out of the picture left the club free to try some other options in left field. The Braves claimed Preston Tucker and later signed Ezequiel Carrera; those two left-handed hitters could pair with the righty swinging Lane Adams. Of course, the real occupant of left is not going to open the 2018 campaign in the majors. All-world prospect Ronald Acuna ran roughshod over the Grapefruit League but will not make his MLB debut until later in the coming season. While Anthopoulos has insisted the decision was based purely on Acuna’s development, and he did race through the minors last year, there’s also little doubt that service-time considerations also played a role.

Of course, that could have been accomplished simply by cutting Kemp loose. Picking up the veteran trio was of greater utility, however, even with Gonzalez being cut loose. Kazmir and especially McCarthy will represent 2018 rotation candidates for the Braves, thus obviating the need to spend more on veteran pitching to build out the rotation. Having already declined an option over knuckler R.A. Dickey, the Braves needed some innings to avoid putting too much pressure on their young arms.

Additionally, the swap shifted the payroll hit from Kemp forward. The Dodgers preferred to consolidate the money they owed to free them from the luxury tax this year. For the Braves, though, the move allowed the team to spend down its obligations now while clearing the books for 2019. Now, only Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte are promised money for the future.

It seems, though, that the financial shift also tamped down the likelihood of any significant outlays for the 2018 season, as the immediate payroll ballooned. That left the Braves seeking low-commitment additions throughout the winter. In addition to picking up Tucker and Carrera in the outfield, Anthopoulos added a variety of infielders, including Culberson, Danny Santana, Christian Colon, and Ryan Schimpf. Having already extended Kurt Suzuki to reunite with Tyler Flowers behind the dish, the club added Chris Stewart on a non-guaranteed MLB deal and Rob Brantly on a minors pact to round out the catching depth. After losing Luiz Gohara to injury, the club picked up Anibal Sanchez on a minors pact to deepen the rotation mix. And Anthopoulos added a variety of low-risk relievers, including Chase Whitley, Shane Carle, Josh Ravin, and Tommy John patient Grant Dayton. None of those players cost the Braves more than a de minimus amount of cash, 40-man spot, and/or a non-roster invitation.

Questions Remaining

The club’s approach hardly seems to set the stage for a 2018 postseason berth, though a run can never be ruled out. There is, after all, quite a lot of intriguing talent spread across the Braves’ MLB roster and top minor-league affiliates. But there are also loads of questions, the answers to which will help chart the future for the organization.

We already touched upon the outfield situation. Ender Inciarte is firmly ensconced in center, while Nick Markakis will presumably handle the bulk of the time in right during the final season of his contract. That leaves left field open to examination as the season progresses. Unless Acuna is injured or unexpectedly stumbles at Gwinnett, odds are the pressure will steadily mount for him to be handed the reins — particularly if the Braves get off to a decent start and/or the platoon players don’t pan out.

The right side of the infield is set with star first baseman Freddie Freeman and young second bagger Ozzie Albies, who has earned a long leash after a strong, 57-game debut showing last year. Likewise, the catching situation is largely settled to open the season, as the Flowers/Suzuki pairing will handle the duties.

There’s more potential intrigue, though, in the remaining two spots on the dirt. Dansby Swanson’s sophomore swoon tamped down excitement about his future, though there’s still good reason to believe he’ll be a quality regular and ample cause for the Braves to exercise patience. Third base is largely wide open. It seems the organization will give Johan Camargo a shot at proving he’s no flash in the pan, though he’s expected to open the year on the DL. Schimpf perhaps could have received a shot but turned in a rather unbelievable 0-for-30 performance this spring. Rio Ruiz has not exactly seized his limited opportunities to date but has perhaps shown enough at Triple-A to warrant a chance. Otherwise, the club would likely be left with a mix of Culberson and Santana to hold down the fort. Well-regarded prospect Austin Riley could force his way into the picture if he keeps mashing; no doubt the hope is he’ll earn the job in the long run. It’s perhaps still possible that the Braves could end up finding another option from outside the organization over the next few weeks.

The pitching staff, meanwhile, is chock full of wild cards. The top four members of the rotation are clear, but each comes with as much uncertainty as talent. Julio Teheran is looking to bounce back from a mediocre 2017 season, Mike Foltynewicz will try to turn the corner, McCarthy has made just 25 starts over the past two seasons, and power lefty Sean Newcomb needs to show that he can limit the free passes. A rotation slot had been intended for youngster Luiz Gohara, who impressed at all levels (including a five-start MLB debut) last year. But he suffered a few injuries in camp and now looks to be ticketed for a reasonably lengthy layoff, leaving the door open behind him. While Atlanta may not need a fifth starter to open the year, the club will eventually need to fill out the starting staff. Kazmir and Sanchez are the notable names here, with both looking to rebound from unproductive recent seasons. Otherwise, Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, or Lucas Sims could again be given opportunities despite failing to capitalize on their prior chances.

No matter how that situation sorts itself out, the Braves will be weighing all season long whether and when to make some further promotions. Touted young hurlers such as Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, and Kyle Wright are expected to knock on the door in the near term. With another wave of talent coming up behind them, the front office surely won’t hesitate to take a look at those arms against the game’s best hitters when they’re deemed ready. After all, it could soon be necessary to make some tough calls on which pitchers to keep and which to dangle in trades.

If Anthopoulos focused anywhere in particular this winter, it seems to have been the bullpen, where the club added new arms and outrighted Mauricio Cabrera and Luke Jackson. There are loads of options stacked up for trials and patches as the situation dictates. Arodys Vizcaino will be looking for some elusive consistency after a strong 2017 effort, with Jose Ramirez and lefty A.J. Minter primed to join him at the back of the pen. Veterans Peter Moylan and Sam Freeman figure to provide some stability. Dan Winkler, whose Rule 5 status is still not fully determined, will hope to remain healthy and effective.

That likely leaves two spots still open to some debate, with Whitley, Ravin, Carle, Wisler, and Blair perhaps the chief candidates to open the season on the active roster now that Rule 5er Anyelo Gomez has been returned. Lefty Rex Brothers has struggled this spring after agreeing to a non-guaranteed arb deal. Reclamation projects Jesse Biddle and Jacob Lindgren could represent interesting southpaw candidates at some point but aren’t immediate options (with the former already having been optioned and the latter dealing with elbow issues). Righties Jason Hursh and Akeel Morris won’t make the active roster but are still on the 40-man, as are young southpaws Adam McCreery and Ricardo Sanchez. Needless to say, it’s likely there’ll be quite a lot of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes on. With 26 pitchers on the 40-man roster at present, it’s all but certain that a few hurlers will end up being traded or placed on outright waivers at some point.

Overview

Outside of those roster spots that were locked down entering the winter, the strategy was obviously to build out depth, seek some diamonds in the rough, and create competition. That process is likely to carry on throughout the season as needs arise and players sink or swim. The Braves will surely prioritize protecting their future talent pool over maximizing immediate MLB performance, but plenty of difficult decisions will begin to be made as camp draws to a close. While the organization doesn’t really have loads of veterans that figure to profile as mid-season trade candidates, it’s certainly possible that deals will be considered at some point for Teheran, McCarthy, Markakis, and certain veteran relievers or bench pieces. Expectations are tempered for the coming season, but fans and the front office alike will surely be watching closely at how things are shaping up for 2019 and beyond.

How would you grade the organization’s offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Indians, Naquin, Refsnyder, Reds, Miley, Cabrera

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Tyler Naquin and Rob Refsnyder are still competing for a potential spot on the Indians’ opening day roster, and Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets that manager Terry Francona has explained some details to them. Francona reportedly told the two players that the spot won’t simply go to the guy who gets the most hits over the last week, and that roster construction could be the biggest factor. For instance, if Brandon Guyer and/or Michael Brantley aren’t ready in time for opening day, Naquin and Refsnyder would stand a better chance to make the club out of camp. Whether the club chooses to carry seven or eight relievers will also affect their fates. It’s worth noting that Tyler Naquin has multiple options remaining, while Rob Refsnyder is an out-of-options player.

More out of the midwest…

  • In a piece for The Athletic, Doug Gray details ten Reds prospects to keep an eye on for the coming season. The players in the article aren’t necessarily top prospects, but rather a group of under-the-radar players who Gray describes as “unheralded”. The list includes right-handers Nick Hanson and Ryan Hendrix, $10MM shortstop Jose Garcia, and Brandon Phillips’ cousin Montrell Marshall. Many of these players have significant upside and are worth the exploration by any Reds fan, or indeed any avid baseball follower.
  • Wade Miley’s opt-out date has been pushed back, Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports on Twitter. The southpaw seemed likely to make the Brewers’ rotation before suffering a torn groin that’s expected to keep him out two to four weeks. Miley could have opted out of his contract tomorrow after being informed that he wouldn’t make the opening day roster, but GM David Stearns apparently worked out a deal with his agent. Miley’s opt-out date has been extended until the point at which he’s able to start pitching again.
  • Two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera is stuck in “baseball purgatory”, says Scott Miller in an opinion piece for Bleacher Report. Miller describes Cabrera as “an island unto himself”, on a rebuilding Tigers team that will not likely be able to deal him and the $192MM remaining on his contract, particularly coming off the worst season of his career wherein he was plagued by back issues. For his part, Cabrera doesn’t seem to be focused on that aspect of his situation. “I’m here to play,” he says. “I’m not here to give my opinion of what’s going to happen. I’m here to do my job, to help win games and to help the process.” 

Steven Souza Jr. Out “A Couple Of Weeks” With Pectoral Strain

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Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. has a right pec strain and will open the season on the disabled list, according to manager Torey Lovullo (via Nick Pecoro of AZ Central Sports). Lovullo expects Souza to be out of the lineup for “a couple of weeks, at least.” The soon-to-be 29-year-old Souza left Wednesday’s game after diving for a baseball in the outfield.

Needless to say, this is certainly isn’t what the Diamondbacks had planned for when they acquired Souza in a three-team trade with the Yankees and Rays earlier in the winter. Arizona gave up left-hander Anthony Banda and two players to be named later in order to acquire the free-swinging slugger, who’s coming off his best season as a major-leaguer. Though he managed just a .239 batting average last season (in part due to a 29% strikeout rate), he got on base at a .351 clip and crushed 30 homers while contributing 16 stolen bases for Tampa Bay.

It’s unclear exactly how long the club expects Souza to be out. Lovullo says that the club will “give the injury time to define itself”, which is of course incredibly vague. Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets that Lovullo “slipped in” mid-May to a later answer about the outfielder’s timeline. Regardless, it seems almost like good news for Souza, as it was initially thought that he may have suffered a shoulder injury. His absence from the opening day roster will open up an opportunity for more playing time for both Yasmany Tomas and Jarrod Dyson at the start of the season.

Souza was drafted and developed by the Nationals, who picked him in the third round of the 2007 draft, then later traded him to the Padres in exchange for Joe Ross and a player-to-be-named-later that ended up being Trea Turner. The righty-hitting outfielder has played in parts of four major league seasons, slashing .236/.325/.426 for his career to go along with 65 dingers and 35 steals.

Twins Notes: Aybar, Busenitz, Duffey, Kinley, Hughes, Heisey

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Veteran shortstop Erick Aybar has been informed he will not make the Twins roster, tweets Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Aybar seemed to have at least an outside shot of making the club out of camp in light of Jorge Polanco’s 80-game PED suspension, but after managing just a .621 OPS in 35 spring training at-bats, Minnesota couldn’t find room for him. Aybar signed with the Twins late in February on a minor league deal; He can choose to opt out of it on Friday. We’re now three years removed from Aybar’s last season playing above league average; since a 4.2 fWAR campaign in which he hit .278/.321/.379 while playing sterling defense at shortstop for the Angels, Aybar has severely declined. Over the past three seasons, his glovework has been average at best, and he sports a wRC+ of just 73.

Other Twins-related items…

  • There are other changes afoot in Minnesota, too, as Berardino reports. Righties Alan Busenitz and Tyler Duffey were each shipped out of camp on optional assignment. Both struggled this spring, as Berardino notes, while other developments — particularly, the desire to carry Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley and oft-injured starter Phil Hughes in the pen — have tightened things on the MLB roster. As per the conditions of the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins must keep Kinley on the major league roster for an entire season or else offer him back to the Marlins. The 27-year-old righty has allowed five earned runs while striking out eleven hitters in ten spring training innings.
  • Chris Heisey has been granted his release by the Twins, tweets Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. The 33-year-old outfielder played in 38 games last season for the Nationals (79 plate appearances), and hit a dismal .162/.216/.270. In the early stages of his career, Heisey played in a reserve outfielder role for the Reds; he’s since played for the Dodgers in addition to the aforementioned Nats. He owns just a .444 OPS this spring, so it would be tough to imagine him latching onto an opening day roster spot with an MLB club.

Paul Blackburn Has Right Forearm Strain

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6:00pm: Blackburn will be shut down for ten days, says manager Bob Melvin (h/t Jane Lee of MLB.com).

4:18pm: The Athletics rotation has taken another blow, this time involving righty Paul Blackburn. He is dealing with a right forearm strain, as Jane Lee writes in a piece for MLB.com. It now seems all but certain that Blackburn will not be ready to join the staff to open the year. With the rotation already missing Jharel Cotton and recent signee Trevor Cahill not quite ready to go, that leaves Oakland with much less depth to begin the season than had been anticipated. Lee suggests that “by default”, the A’s early-season rotation is now set to consist of Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Andrew Triggs and Daniel Gossett.

The 24-year-old Blackburn made ten starts last season in his first taste of major-league action. While the righty pitched to a nice 3.22 ERA and a 56.3% ground ball rate, his 4.76 xFIP and shockingly low 3.38 K/9 left some question marks surrounding his capability to repeat that level of run-prevention.

Blackburn was a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs back during the 2012 draft. He came to the Athletics organization by way of a 2016 trade that sent Danny Valencia to the Mariners. Blackburn made his major-league debut on July 1st, 2017, when the righty allowed zero earned runs in six innings against the Braves.

Reds Claim Kennys Vargas

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The Reds have claimed first baseman/DH Kennys Vargas off waivers from the Twins, per an announcement from the Minnesota organization. He had been designated for assignment recently.

It’s a bit difficult to see how Vargas will fit into the Cincinnati organization’s plans at first glance. He’s out of options and limited on a National League roster to pinch-hitting or playing first base, where Joey Votto is an everyday presence.

Unless there’s some unknown issue that would warrant the move, it could be that the Reds are simply utilizing their waiver position to grab a player they like but won’t carry on their active roster. Vargas could be traded to a team further down the priority line — just four teams are higher than the Reds at present — or put back on waivers in hopes that he’ll clear and can be stashed at Triple-A.

All indications have been that the Twins anticipated another organization claiming Vargas, despite the fact that a trade could not be sorted out. It seems there’s some optimism around the league for the 27-year-old switch-hitter.

Though Vargas has not yet shown that he can be a consistent on-base threat at the game’s highest level, with a .311 OBP in 859 career plate appearances, though he has drawn tons of walks in the upper minors. Vargas isn’t exactly a prodigious home run hitter but has shown good power output both at Triple-A and in the majors (.185 ISO) and perhaps has some more in the tank if he can tap into his raw strength.

*The initial version of this post incorrectly suggested that American League teams all passed on a chance to claim Vargas. Outright waiver priority is determined by winning percentage, lowest first, without reference to league except to break a tie in recor.

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