Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Archives for February 2018
Pirates To Sign Daniel Nava
The Pirates have reached agreement with free agent outfielder/first baseman Daniel Nava, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a minors pact that includes a MLB camp invite.
Nava, who’ll turn 35 in a few weeks, had a nice bounceback campaign last year with the cross-state Phillies. He was limited to eighty games of action owing to injuries, which also perhaps prevented him from being dealt to a contender in the middle of the season, but turned in an undeniably productive overall effort.
Over 214 total plate appearances, Nava slashed a robust .301/.393/.421. Though he managed only four home runs, he exhibited a command of the strike zone (just 38 strikeouts with 26 walks) of the type that led to his prior MLB success.
Of course, teams were no doubt also wary given that Nava had struggled over the prior several campaigns. While he grades as a solid defender in the corner outfield, he isn’t exactly a prime asset with the glove. And Nava is pretty clearly a strict platoon asset: the switch-hitter has long been far more successful against right-handed than left-handed pitching.
For the Bucs, those limitations are just fine. As middling as his production has been against southpaws, Nava dominated (.341/.423/.474) when hitting with the platoon advantage last year. He ought to have a fair shot at earning a MLB roster spot in camp. Odds are — as the Pirates’ updated depth chart suggests — he’ll end up in a time share in the corner outfield.
Tony Clark Accuses MLB Teams Of “Race To The Bottom”
MLBPA chief Tony Clark has issued a statement, first provided by ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, leveling significant accusations at MLB organizations. With a huge number of free agents still un-signed, Clark says that teams have failed to engage the market in earnest.
Here is the full statement:
“Pitchers and catchers will report to camps in Florida and Arizona next week. A record number of talented free agents remain unemployed in an industry where revenues and franchise values are at record highs.
Spring Training has always been associated with hope for a new season. This year a significant number of teams are engaged in a race to the bottom. This conduct is a fundamental breach of the trust between a team and its fans and threatens the very integrity of our game.”
Notably, Clark does not accuse teams of acting in concert to artificially suppress earnings — quite a different, more serious potential charge for which we’ve seen no evidence. Rather, his view seems to coincide with the broad points already presented by some prominent media members and agents (as well as at least one sitting GM): i.e., that more teams than usual are strategically disinterested in trying to win in the coming season.
Unsurprisingly, Major League Baseball has a different view of the matter that reflect prior comments from commission Rob Manfred. In a statement released to Crasnick, the league rejects Clark’s characterization as an “unfair” attack on MLB teams. Arguing that many top free agents are “sitting unsigned even though they have substantial offers,” the league statement suggests that agents have failed to “value their clients” reasonably “in a constantly changing free agent market based on factors such as positional demand, advanced analytics, and the impact of the new Basic Agreement.”
Clark’s statement seems to represent a notable ramp up in the rhetoric surrounding the notably slow free agent process this winter. At the moment, though, it seems that this is mostly a war of words for public relations positioning. Camps will soon open without several prominent players, barring some quick developments in the market, which will dramatically raise the visibility of this long-simmering dispute.
The union/agent stance seems to be a familiar one, arguing that tanking tactics are reducing competition for top free agents. From the league/team side, as the above statement suggests, the rejoinder is that clubs are within their rights to operate as they see fit within the rules regime agreed upon by collective bargaining. It isn’t too difficult to see how each side hopes to draw upon the natural but competing inclinations of fans both to chide “cheap” owners and to turn a skeptical eye toward “selfish” players.
In truth, this debate isn’t a new one. Tanking has been discussed for years. Manfred’s prior argument was, in essence, that the market adequately allows for such a strategy; it’s just not that successful an approach if too many teams employ it, since inevitably plenty of clubs will “lose” the “race to the bottom” and fail to recoup top draft picks, etc. Dave Cameron has argued, though, that this year may be somewhat unique in that, for many teams, the incentives to pursue draft status and cost savings may be sufficient to outweigh an expensive, low-odds effort to chase down the half-dozen “super teams” currently pacing the game.
As Evan Drellich rightly observes on Twitter, the concept of tanking does not really adequately cover the deeper mechanisms at play. There’s more at play here, somewhere in the intermingling of pervasive and deepening analytics; aging curves in a (mostly) post-PED era; and drastically cabined amateur spending and other collectively bargained rules. The most recent collective bargaining agreement largely continued the preexisting rules regime, with a few tweaks, largely reflecting an assumption that market mechanisms would allow player compensation to keep pace with earnings growth. Even as they swim in revenue, though, MLB organizations increasingly seem to be pursuing strategies that eschew major long-term free agent entanglements — potentially challenging the assumptions undergirding the players’ commitment to the existing CBA framework.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Jonathan Schoop
The Orioles have struck a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Schoop will take home $8.5MM, per the report.
Recent indications were that there was some friction developing between the O’s and the star infielder. It would seem, though, that any budding problems — which might’ve been exacerbated by a hearing — have been forestalled with today’s agreement.
Schoop had filed at $9MM, with the team countering at $7.5MM. The 2018 MLB arbitration projections of MLBTR and Matt Swartz had pegged Schoop for a $9.1MM salary, so he’ll come in just under that mark.
With this deal now out of the way, Baltimore has just one remaining case. Righty Kevin Gausman is scheduled for a trial on February 14, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter).
So far as Schoop is concerned, attention will no doubt turn to the possibility of broader contract discussions. The 26-year-old has locked in some significant earnings already, with one more arb-eligible campaign to go after 2019, so he has a fair bit of leverage. But the O’s could still take a run at an extension on the heels of a 2017 season in which Schoop checked in with 4.1 fWAR/5.1 rWAR.
MLBTR Poll: Predicting A Contract For Mike Moustakas
The market has just not lined up well to this point for former Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas. While we guessed he’d be able to command a five-year commitment and ranked him the sixth-best free agent available in our 2017-18 Top 50 Free Agents list, that level of contract is increasingly difficult to imagine.
In that ranking, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed the Angels, Braves, and Cardinals as conceivable landing spots. In a full breakdown, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted that a variety of other organizations could conceivably get involved on the still-youthful Moustakas. The Giants and Mets were clear possibilities on paper, with some scenarios imaginable in which teams like the Phillies, Red Sox, Indians, Orioles, or Twins might enter the picture. And, of course, the incumbent Royals were expected to remain in the frame to some extent.
As things have shaken out, several of the plausible pursuers have elected to go in different directions. The Angels (Zack Cozart), Giants (Evan Longoria), and Mets (Todd Frazier) now seem clearly out on Moustakas after adding third basemen. Any outside chance that the Phillies would get involved may have disappeared when the team signed Carlos Santana to play first base. There’s no indication that the Red Sox are looking in this direction, the Indians don’t seem to have funds available, and the Orioles and Twins remain only speculative possibilities at this stage. The Royals don’t seem to expect a reunion. While the Cardinals are still a conceivable fit, indications are the organization doesn’t like the match. Though the Braves likewise still theoretically work, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested on Twitter today that he doesn’t expect the organization to offer up significant money. Developments have left the Yankees seeking a third baseman, but they are walking a luxury tax tightrope.
Quite apart from the broader market slow-down, then, there are arrows pointing toward trouble for agent Scott Boras in finding a major deal for Moustakas. That’s not to say it isn’t possible — it’s worth bearing in mind there was plenty of hand-wringing over Lorenzo Cain before he recently secured a significant contract, and Moustakas is hardly alone among still-unsigned premium free agents — but the picture does seem decidedly different than it did entering the winter.
All said, it seems an opportune moment to see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Can Boras still pull off a big contract? Will “Moose” have to settle for significantly less? Is there a middle ground? Give your opinion here on the sort of contract Moustakas is likeliest to sign (link for app users):
Padres To Sign Tom Wilhelmsen
The Padres have inked righty Tom Wilhelmsen to a minors deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Wilhelmsen will earn a $900K base salary if he makes the roster.
Once an anchor of the Mariners bullpen, Wilhelmsen hit a rough patch upon moving to the Rangers in 2016. While he rebounded somewhat in the second half of that campaign when he returned to Seattle, the veteran settled for a minor-league deal with the Diamondbacks this time last year.
Wilhelmsen, now 34, earned a job in Spring Training and opened the 2017 season as a part of the D-Backs’ relief corps. Things didn’t go quite as hoped, though, as he struggled to a 4.44 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 26 1/3 innings. While he maintained a mid-nineties heater and induced grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him, Wilhelmsen carried a 6.2% swinging-strike rate that fell well shy of his 10.6% career average.
Ultimately, the Diamondbacks cut ties with Wilhelmsen in the middle of the year. He caught on with the Brewers but was unable to earn his way back to the majors. Now, Wilhelmsen will try to crack the Friars’ pen in camp. It looks like that will represent an uphill battle, as he’ll need to beat out a veteran pitcher such as Jordan Lyles and also hold off some of the organization’s younger options.
Quick Hits: Aardsma, Coke, Market Analysis
Former MLB righty David Aardsma has announced on his podcast that he’s officially calling it quits as a ballplayer and joining the Blue Jays front office as coordinator of player development. The 36-year-old, a former first-round draft pick, last pitched in the majors in 2015 and spent some time at Triple-A in the following season with the Toronto organization. Over nine years with eight MLB organizations, Aardsma ran a 4.27 ERA over 337 frames. He’ll surely be remembered best for a two-year run with the Mariners in which he closed out 69 games and maintained a 2.90 ERA. MLBTR — which once hosted Aardsma on its own podcast — wishes him the very best in his new pursuit.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- Lefty Phil Coke is hoping to reinvent himself as a knuckle-baller, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). The 35-year-old, a nine-year MLB veteran, spent some time last year with Japan’s Orix Buffaloes but has had a tough time gaining traction in recent seasons. Coke had long utilized a varied arsenal and shown good velocity from the left side, so he ought to have some interesting potential accompanying tools to go with his new knuckler.
- Of course, looking at the state of the market is just not possible without examining the general lack of action. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic again offers some worthwhile perspective in a subscription piece, chiding both the player and team sides for “bickering” over pace-of-play discussions when what’s needed is a joint commitment to evolving the game — and, no doubt, an effort to deal with the dangerous rise in labor tension. ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, meanwhile, asks whether certain unsigned free agents could actually decide to open their own spring camp. Different players and agents have different takes on the concept; what’s most notable, perhaps, is the fact that it’s even a topic of conversation at all.
- Even if there’s a resolution to the current impasse, it seems there’ll likely be a broader, ongoing conversation about where the game of baseball is headed when it comes to player-team relations. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper argues that the current rules regime creates skewed incentives that do not reward teams that try to contend but come up a bit short. He discusses a few possible ideas, promoting in particular a “tank tax” that docks organizations in the draft if they put together consecutive sub-70-win campaigns. Cooper suggests this kind of mechanism could function similarly to the soccer approach of relegation. Ultimately, the MLBPA may need to begin considering more drastic measures, Nathaniel Grow writes at Fangraphs. He raises the possibility that the union could strategically disband to open the door to an antitrust lawsuit. While that threat might be utilized first as a means to gain leverage in future CBA talks, Grow explains that it could be a realistic option at some point.
- Those interested in getting the full range of opinions on top prospects from around the game will want to check out the latest top-100 lists. The Baseball Prospectus staff and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have graded out the game’s best pre-MLB players from their perspectives.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/5/18
Here are Monday’s minor moves throughout the league…
- Lefty Dan Runzler has joined the Rays on a minors pact, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Soon to turn 33, Runzler made it back to the majors in 2017 after a long layoff. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA in 76 1/3 total MLB frames. The southpaw spent most of last year at Triple-A in the Pirates organization, where he worked to a 3.05 ERA in 41 1/3 innings with 7.8 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9.
- The Diamondbacks announced today that outfielder Rey Fuentes has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Reno. He’ll be in Spring Training with the D-backs as a non-roster invitee. Fuentes, 27 next week, was designated for assignment last Wednesday to clear a roster spot for the recently signed Alex Avila. Fuentes logged a career-high 145 plate appearances with Arizona last season and batted .235/.278/.338 with three homers and four stolen bases while spending time at all three outfield spots. He’ll vie for a backup role with the D-backs, who currently project to have David Peralta, A.J. Pollock and Yasmany Tomas as their starters in the outfield.
Royals GM Dayton Moore On Hosmer, Moustakas
Of the four longtime Royals regulars that hit the open market this winter, Alcides Escobar has re-upped with the team on a one-year deal while Lorenzo Cain has gone back to the organization that drafted him (the Brewers) on a five-year pact — the largest of the offseason to date. The other two, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, remain available for anyone to sign, and Kansas City GM Dayton Moore spoke about the reunion possibilities in an interview with Soren Petro of 810 AM’s The Program (all links to Twitter).
Hosmer, of course, has been a priority for the Royals all offseason. Moore made no effort to hide the fact that a long-term deal with Hosmer remains at the top of the team’s wishlist, with the two sides continuing to try to work out a deal. “We’ve had a lot of discussion over the last week,” said Moore of his talks with Hosmer’s camp. “I can’t say we’ve made much progress, but whenever you’re talking that not a bad thing.”
Kansas City’s offer was reported last week to be larger than the only other known seven-year offer received by Hosmer, which came from San Diego. And, much like Padres chairman Ron Fowler did last month, Moore suggested that there’s some hesitation from his own organization to push the envelope further.
“We’ve exchanged contract numbers,” the GM stated. “It doesn’t make sense for a team like us to set the market on a player like Hosmer.”
The Padres and Royals, to this point, essentially are the market for Hosmer, it seems — at least as far as teams willing to commit seven years. Both have made offers to the 28-year-old, and while it’s certainly possible that other teams would jump into the mix should Hosmer’s camp pivot and seek a shorter deal at a larger annual value, Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras is reportedly still pushing for a larger and longer offer than those presented to this point.
Despite the lack of movement on the Hosmer front, it doesn’t seem as if the Royals have a strong desire to change trajectory and re-engage with Moustakas — at least not until the Hosmer situation has been resolved one way or another. Moore made it clear that Hosmer is the team’s priority, while suggesting also that the feeling is somewhat mutual.
“We have options at third,” said Moore. “I wouldn’t say absolutely not. We want to make it clear that Hos is the player that fits us for the future. I want to get through the Hosmer negotiations before we work on Moustakas. … Moustakas had some expectations that were a little different, places he wanted to play. It was clear from the beginning that we weren’t a high priority.”
Indeed, the Royals do have players such as Cheslor Cuthbert and Hunter Dozier as options at the hot corner, to say nothing of some potential action there for Whit Merrifield or Raul Mondesi Jr., depending on how the organization decides to divide up infield time now that Escobar has been re-signed to handle the bulk of the playing time at shortstop. In theory, either Cuthbert or Dozier could play first base as well should Hosmer sign elsewhere, as assistant GM J.J. Piccolo has already suggested as much this offseason. But, the Royals reportedly relish the idea of keeping Hosmer in Kansas City and leveraging his leadership skills as a mentor for the next wave of young Royals talent.
For Moustakas, that marks the second time a general manager has gone on record in the past week to somewhat downplay the possibility of signing him — Mets GM Sandy Alderson did so last week — in addition to last night’s report that the Cardinals don’t seem to be a likely landing spot. While many free agents are struggling to find deals to their liking, many of the top names have at least received fairly lucrative offers, it seems. In addition to Hosmer’s pair of seven-year offers, Yu Darvish has reportedly received at least one five-year offer. The same holds true for J.D. Martinez, while Alex Cobb reportedly turned down a three-year offer from the Cubs worth about $42MM.
So far as has been reported publicly, Moustakas has not yet drawn clear interest or significant offers over the course of the offseason. Several on-paper fits for his services simply don’t have much in the way of financial flexibility, have addressed their needs via trade, or are in the midst of a rebuilding phase and may not be keen on the idea of parting with the requisite draft picks to sign him. Market forces haven’t helped, either. In particular, the Angels signed Zack Cozart to play third — occupying one plausible landing spot — while other teams may prefer the idea of pursuing the older Todd Frazier on a shorter contract.
If Moustakas elects to drop his asking price, it’s possible that his market could accelerate, and there’s certainly the possibility that a Spring Training injury to an established third baseman (especially on a contending club) could open the door for a new destination. For now, though, it still seems to be a waiting game.
NL Central Notes: Grimm, Brewers, Reds
The Cubs and Justin Grimm will have an arbitration hearing this week, reports ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link). The right-hander filed for a $2.475MM salary for the 2018 campaign, while the Cubs filed at $2.2MM (as seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). The two sides haven’t been able to make any progress in their talks, per Rogers, so they’ll head to what will be the Cubs’ first arbitration hearing in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era. Grimm, who earned $1.825MM in 2017, struggled to a 5.53 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.93 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings for the Cubs last year. The 2017-18 offseason marks his second winter of arbitration eligibility as he heads into his age-29 season.
Elsewhere in the division…
- The Brewers have the capacity to add to their payroll even after acquiring Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain, Jhoulys Chacin, Boone Logan and Matt Albers this offseason, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “Mark wants to do what’s in the best interests of the organization,” GM David Stearns tells Haudricourt. “He has made that very clear throughout my time here and even before I got here. He’s going to be supportive of the baseball process. He’s going to be supportive of investing when it’s warranted.” That said, Haudricourt notes that a top-of-the-market offer for a free agent like Yu Darvish still doesn’t seem likely, per Haudricourt, and the Brewers do want to leave some room for in-season moves, should the need arise.
- Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey, Brandon Finnegan and Luis Castillo will head into Reds camp as the top four rotation options, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, but the competition for the fifth spot is “wide open.” Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, Robert Stephenson, Amir Garrett, Cody Reed, Jackson Stephens and 2017 setup man Michael Lorenzen will all vie for that job. (Presumably, a return to the bullpen would be in order for Lorenzen should he not win the final spot, whereas the others would likely head to Triple-A Louisville.) “We want to make sure we have depth in our starting rotation, and we’ve got a lot of good, young guys with options that we still believe in as starters,” said GM Dick Williams. “…I would also leave the door open that out of [the fifth starter’s mix], there is a possibility, like last year, that you could see someone appear in the Major League bullpen just to get exposure and to help the team.”
