Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Archives for February 2018
J.D. Martinez Rumors: Tuesday
As spring camps begin to open around the league, J.D. Martinez is among the prominent free agents who is still trying to work out his next contract. It has long been supposed that he and the Red Sox have been engaged in a staredown, with the team sitting on a five-year, $125MM offer and Martinez’s camp searching for more.
The latest reports indicate that is not quite an accurate picture …
- The Red Sox’ current top offer to Martinez is “in the vicinity” of only $100MM, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. That’s quite a lot less than has generally been stated, and certainly paints a different picture of the present state of affairs for the market’s top slugger. While the Sox are still smitten with Martinez, Speier writes, the organization is also not particularly interested in running up its bid when demand from other teams is questionable. The article discusses the broader opportunity that Boston may have on a still-dragging market, given its willingness to move past the luxury tax line in a winter where others are declining to do so.
- Of course, demand can have a way of forming to fill vacuums, and Martinez and his reps at the Boras Corporation are no doubt hoping that’ll occur over the coming weeks. The Diamondbacks are, notably, still working on creative means of bringing Martinez back into the fold, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. That could mean broaching the idea of a shorter deal with a big annual salary and opt-out opportunities, Heyman suggests, though the details of any offers to this point remain hazy. Such a pact might ameliorate concerns with locking into another massive, long-term entanglement, though it’d cut down on the upside for the team and would no doubt still require a big jump in payroll (or further creativity in the form of shedding other contracts). Whatever the details, though, Heyman says there’s some added optimism on the Arizona side that the team could have a real shot at pulling off a surprise deal.
Rays Sign Sergio Romo
FEBRUARY 13: Romo is guaranteed $2.5MM in the deal, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The deal is official.
FEBRUARY 9: The Rays have agreed to terms on a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Sergio Romo, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). He can earn up to $2.75MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link), though the amount guaranteed remains unclear. The deal is still pending a physical. Romo is a client of Meister Sports Management.
Romo, 35 next month, was cut loose by the Dodgers after struggling through 25 innings in Los Angeles last season but found new life when L.A. sent him to the Rays in a minor trade following a DFA. In 30 2/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Romo thrived, pitching to a minuscule 1.47 ERA with an excellent 28-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 38.8 percent ground-ball rate.
Though Romo’s average velocity on his four-seamer and sinker both checked in under 87 mph last season, his penchant for missing bats didn’t deteriorate whatsoever. While one wouldn’t think it when looking at the radar gun, Romo has averaged better than a strikeout per inning in all but two seasons of his career, and he averaged 9.5 K/9 on the season as a whole in 2017. That impressive mark was accompanied by a 14.9 percent swinging-strike rate that tied him with Cody Allen for 25th among 155 qualified relievers.
Romo will serve as an elder statesman in a young and rather inexperienced Tampa Bay bullpen. At present, Alex Colome projects as the team’s closer, though trade rumblings surrounding his name have persisted even as Spring Training approaches. The Rays are reportedly still under ownership directive to cut a bit more payroll, and that figures to be ever the more true after adding Romo on a one-year deal — even if it comes at a modest rate. Should Colome ultimately be moved, it stands to reason that Romo, formerly the Giants’ closer, could find himself in the mix for saves early in the season.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
Beyond Romo and Colome, the Rays’ bullpen, at least from the right side, looks somewhat undefined. Dan Jennings and Jose Alvarado should hold down spots as southpaws, while Matt Andriese figures to pitch from the right side in a multi-inning capacity (though Andriese could end up in the rotation depending on whether Jake Odorizzi, another trade candidate, is moved prior to Opening Day).
Other right-handers who could work in a middle relief or setup capacity include Austin Pruitt, Chaz Roe, Andrew Kittredge, Ryne Stanek, Chih-Wei Hu, Jamie Schultz and Diego Castillo — each of whom is on the 40-man roster. The Rays will also have some veterans with big league experience in camp on minor league deals, including righty Evan Scribner and lefties Vidal Nuno and Jonny Venters.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Sign Chris Heisey
The Twins have signed Chris Heisey to a minor-league deal, per a club announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, on Twitter). The veteran receives an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Heisey, 33, impressed the Nationals enough as a bench piece in 2016 to sign a major-league deal to return for the following season. He struggled through an injury-plagued year, though, taking just 79 plate appearances and carrying a terrible .162/.215/.270 slash line. The Nats ended up cutting Heisey loose just before the trade deadline.
It’s conceivable that Heisey could challenge for a reserve outfield role in camp, but he’ll need to show that the disappointing 2017 campaign is now firmly in the rearview mirror. At his best, Heisey has provided solidly average output in all areas of play with some pop at the plate. He has actually been quite a bit better against right-handed pitching over his career, so he likely won’t represent a possibility to serve as the lefty-mashing bat that the Twins have sought.
Cubs Sign Yu Darvish
TUESDAY: The Cubs have announced the deal.
It breaks down as follows, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter): $25MM in 2018, $20MM in 2019, $22MM apiece in 2020 and 2021, $19MM in 2022, and $18MM in 2023. That allocation means that Darvish will face at least a four-year, $81MM decision (depending upon escalators) when his opt-out opportunity arises.
Per Nightengale, also, the full no-trade protection extends through the first four years of the contract.
SUNDAY, 4:05pm: Darvish has a full no-trade clause for part of the deal, then it switches to a 12-team list, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link).
1:50pm: Darvish has the ability to block a trade to nearly every team, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Additionally, in any year of the contract, he could earn $2MM extra with a Cy Young Award or $1MM if he finishes second to fifth in the voting.
SATURDAY, 6:02pm: Darvish’s opt-out comes after the 2019 season, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.
5:17pm: The Cubs and Yu Darvish have agreed to terms on a contract that will bring the righty to Chicago, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. The deal guarantees the Wasserman client $126MM over six years (though the total value can reportedly reach $150MM via escalators), and is pending a physical. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that the contract also includes both an opt-out clause “earlier than three years into his contract” and no-trade protection (Twitter link).
With Darvish in the fold alongside Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood, the reigning NL Central champs will have one of the more complete (and formidable) rotations in all of baseball. Thanks in part to that group, they should enter the upcoming season as the favorites to win the division again, despite the aggressive moves the rival Brewers have made this winter.
In Darvish, who divided last year between the Rangers and Dodgers, the Cubs are getting a hurler who in 2017 ranked as the majors’ 16th-best pitcher by fWAR (3.5) and 12th-best in terms of strikeouts per nine innings (10.08). He also racked up 186 2/3 innings, his most since 2013, and pitched to a 3.86 ERA/3.83 FIP. He figures to replace Jake Arrieta near the front of the Cubs’ rotation. Because Darvish was part of a midseason trade, the Dodgers could not issue him a qualifying offer to begin the winter. Consequently, reeling him in won’t cost Chicago any draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.
Of course, the impact of this signing sends ripples far beyond the NL Central alone. MLBTR had ranked Darvish as the best available free agent among our top 50 (Tim Dierkes & Co. actually predicted he’d end up with the Cubs). This deal could well mean that many other free agent dominoes will begin to fall soon. In particular, many have theorized that teams may have been waiting for Darvish to sign before moving onto lesser free agents such as Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. The Dodgers, Twins, and Brewers had all reportedly made serious offers for Darvish; they’ll now have to set their sights on other options.
The contract itself is by far the largest ever given to a free agent in February. Although the total guarantee is significantly south of the $160MM we predicted he’d receive back in November, the deal itself could perhaps ease some of the ongoing tension between the players union and MLB, which has escalated to a boiling point in recent weeks due to teams’ unwillingness to meet the asking prices of many top free agents. There has perhaps been as much focus on the glacial pace of the offseason as there has been on the free agents themselves, and the Darvish signing is certainly a step in the right direction.
On the other hand, the top four remaining free agents are now J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Jake Arrieta and Mike Moustakas – all of whom are clients of Scott Boras. With the super-agent firmly in control of the top of the market, there’s no guarantee that other pieces will fall into place any time soon.
[RELATED: Updated Cubs Depth Chart/Team Payroll]
Darvish’s major league career started out in spectacular fashion. After the Rangers spent over $100MM between salary guarantees and posting fees in order to sign him out of Japan prior to 2012, he rewarded them by delivering two consecutive seasons of at least 4.5 fWAR. The talented righty was on his way to another fantastic campaign in 2014, but had to be shut down in August due to elbow issues. Those issues ultimately led to a Tommy John surgery in March of the following year, meaning the ace didn’t take the mound for the Rangers for nearly two years.
When Darvish made his return on May 28, 2016, he picked up right where he left off. In 287 innings since that date, all Darvish has done is strike out 341 hitters while walking just 89. His 3.70 ERA and 3.49 xFIP during that span are among the best marks in the major leagues, and he’s posted the 14th-best soft contact rate in the major leagues during that span.
Of course, Darvish’s solid 2017 season was unfortunately covered in shadow by his dreadful World Series performance with the Dodgers. He faced 22 Astros hitters across his two starts while recording just 10 outs and allowing eight earned runs. Darvish was saddled with the loss for both of those games, one of which was the seventh and final game of the series.
However, while his bellyflop is perhaps the most prominent impression left in the minds of Dodgers fans, there are a number of important factors to consider. The first and perhaps most obvious is that 3 1/3 innings is an incredibly small sample size, particularly against a juggernaut Astros offense that also tore through pitchers like Chris Sale in the same postseason. Another is that many Astros hitters went on record saying that Darvish was tipping his pitches in Game Seven; they could tell whether he was going to throw a cutter or a breaking ball by watching whether he adjusted his grip on the ball before bringing it to his glove. Finally, the two World Series starts were Darvish’s 36th and 37th of the season, which is especially notable because he hadn’t pitched a more than 150 innings in a season since 2013.
Darvish’s pitch arsenal is one of his most unique assets. According to Brooks Baseball, he threw a four-seamer, slider, sinker, curve, cutter, change-up and splitter during the 2017 season. While the sinker and change-up were each utilized less than 2% of the time, such an expansive repertoire sets Darvish apart from other MLB aces. Fortunately for him, he’ll once again be reunited with catcher Chris Gimenez. The two played together during their years with the Rangers, where Gimenez had great success working with Darvish and his arsenal. The Cubs signed Gimenez to a minor-league deal about three weeks ago, though whether that factor had any impact at all on Davish’s decision is a guessing game at this point.
While there’s a chance Darvish will pitch to Gimenez in 2018, it seems likely most of his work will come with starting catcher Willson Contreras. The 25-year-old expressed excitement about the Darvish deal on Twitter, noting that he “can’t wait to catch” the four-time All-Star.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Negotiating With Tony Watson; Phillies & Red Sox Also In Mix
11:33am: San Francisco isn’t the only team in the mix, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, who tweets that the Phillies, Red Sox, and unstated other teams are also still involved.
10:20am: The Giants are engaged in “serious contract talks” with southpaw reliever Tony Watson, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). It is not clear at this time what sort of contractual terms the sides are contemplating, but Watson is clearly the best lefty pen piece still unsigned at this stage.
This is certainly an interesting bit of news, due largely to San Francisco’s closely watched effort to improve while staying shy of the competitive balance tax line. Recent tabulations have suggested the team is only $2MM or so beneath the $197MM threshold at present, leaving little room for a player of Watson’s anticipated price.
If the Giants were to accept the luxury tax for the 2018 season, it’s at least fair to wonder whether they’d plan to go further over the line to add other players. On the other hand, part of the team’s strategy could be to engineer a mid-season sell-off to get back below the line if things don’t go quite as hoped.
As things stand, the Giants’ depth chart features Steven Okert as the top southpaw on hand. Josh Osich and D.J. Snelten also represent 40-man options, with recent minor-league signee Derek Holland perhaps also factoring in the mix if he cannot earn a rotation slot. San Francisco will ultimately hope for a bounce back from Will Smith, who is looking to return from a Tommy John procedure that was performed just before the start of the 2017 season, but clearly there’s some room for improvement.
Entering the winter, Watson was tabbed as the 44th-best free agent in MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 open-market players. We guessed the 32-year-old could command $12MM in total guaranteed money over two years. While he has plenty of general late-inning experience, our assessment was that he’d be pursued (and paid) more as a quality lefty specialist. Watson, after all, has long been much more effective against opposing lefties.
Rangers Sign Trevor Plouffe
TODAY: Plouffe could earn a $1.75MM salary with up to $300K in incentive pay if he can crack the MLB roster, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Texas has announced the agreement.
YESTERDAY: The Rangers are in agreement on a minor-league deal with third baseman Trevor Plouffe, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic initially tweeted that there was an agreement, but shortly thereafter issued a correction in a subsequent tweet, saying the sides were in discussions.
Plouffe, now 31, had a run as a regular at the hot corner with the Twins and posted some productive campaigns over the years. Everything went wrong for him, though, in a trying 2017 season.
This time last year, Plouffe was preparing for what he hoped would be a bounceback, one-year run with the Athletics, who had signed him for $5.25MM after a less-than-stellar 2016 effort. But Plouffe lasted only 58 games in Oakland and hit even worse after moving to the Rays in the middle of the season. He ended the year with an ugly .198/.272/.318 slash line over 313 total MLB plate appearances.
Prior to that forgettable campaign, Plouffe had only ever played for the Twins. Over seven seasons, he produced right at the league average at the plate. At his best, in 2014-15, Plouffe played at a solid all-around level and profiled as a quality everyday player.
It seems reasonable to expect that the Rangers will give Plouffe a shot at earning a roster spot in camp, but he’ll certainly be competing for a reserve role. Plouffe will likely do battle with players such as Jurickson Profar and Ryan Rua over the next several weeks. While the Rangers are set at third with veteran Adrian Beltre, and remain poised to give the bulk of the time at first to Joey Gallo, there could still be a fair bit of playing time open to be claimed. In particular, Beltre is likely to require some regular rest.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Gausman
The Orioles have avoided arbitration with righty Kevin Gausman, per a team announcement. He will earn $5.6MM for the coming season, per Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter).
As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, Gausman had been the last remaining Orioles arb agreement to be hammered out. The sides had been scheduled for a hearing tomorrow, with Gausman set to seek $6.225MM and the club countering with a $5.3MM price tag.
Rather than trudge out of camp to go before a panel, Gausman and the O’s have settled their differences. He had projected at a lofty $6.8MM after earning $3.45MM as a Super Two last year, but clearly neither player nor team thought that was a realistic price point.
While the 27-year-old did complete a career-high 186 2/3 innings in 2017, the results failed to match his output from the season prior. He ended up with a 4.68 ERA and 8.6 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9.
Padres Place Jose Torres On Restricted List
TODAY: Torres is facing criminal charges in two matters, according to a troubling report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. After a domestic dispute in December in which he allegedly pointed a gun at the woman he lives with, Torres was charged with assault with a deadly weapon, criminal damage, and intimidation. He is also facing charges relating to marijuana possession, per the report.
YESTERDAY: The Padres have placed lefty Jose Torres on the restricted list, the team announced (h/t MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, on Twitter). That gives the organization an open 40-man roster spot.
It is not known at present just why Torres has gone on the restricted list. There are quite a few conceivable reasons for such a placement. While some relate to malfeasance of varying kinds, it’s necessary to keep in mind that there are also some non-nefarious possibilities. At this point, then, there’s no basis for guessing at the underlying issue that has led to the placement.
Torres, a 24-year-old reliever, turned in a solid rookie season last year and seemed to have a good shot at claiming an active roster spot this spring. In 68 1/3 innings in 2017, he pitched to a 4.21 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, showing a mid-nineties heater and generating a solid 11.1% swinging-strike rate but also allowing an unhealthy volume of home runs (1.71 per nine).
With the news, the Padres will have some added roster space to work with as they weigh any further additions. The competition among lefties will now be missing a favorite, but the Friars do have a quite a few other possibilities on the 40-man already. In addition to closer Brad Hand, relievers Buddy Baumann, Brad Wieck, Kyle McGrath, and Jose Castillo all throw from the left side. Southpaw starters Robbie Erlin and Matt Strahm could also be in the relief mix if they fail to crack the MLB rotation.
Former ACES Contractor Sues Agency; Levinson Brothers Respond
TODAY: Deadspin has obtained and published the complaint in full.
Those interested in learning all of the details of what Nunez states in his filing will want to read it in its original form. But it is worth discussing a few pertinent allegations, all of which were previously investigated (at least to some extent) by the MLBPA but which could now be subject to a different sort of test through the civil litigation process.
Nunez claims that the Levinsons directed and supervised his actions, approving of his questionable efforts. He details a purported undertaking to retain Fernando Rodney as a client during a dispute with another agency, with the Levinsons allegedly ordering Nunez to engineer an arrangement to kick back a portion of the agency’s fee when the MLBPA had ordered that there not be any contact with the reliever.
On the PED front, Nunez says that the Levinson brothers were behind his effort to connect players with performance-enhancing substances through Tony Bosch and the Biogenesis clinic. He also charges the ACES leaders with being “intimately involved” in the failed, harebrained scheme to clear Cabrera (which he details in all its elaborate absurdity). And he explains his prior admissions to the contrary by suggesting the Levinsons asked him to take the fall and promised to take care of him.
YESTERDAY:A disgraced former figure in the baseball world has filed a lawsuit that proposes to revisit one of the game’s most notable scandals. According to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, Juan Carlos Nunez — who served jail time relating to the Biogenesis PED mess — is suing the ACES agency that he once worked for as an independent contractor.
At this point, details are quite hazy even as to the allegations, as the complaint itself has yet to surface. Per Heyman, Nunez claims that ACES founders Sam and Seth Levinson guided and funded him in a scheme to attract clients and connect them with performance-enhancing drugs. He is seeking “millions” in damages under as-yet-unknown legal theories.
When reached for comment, Seth and Sam Levinson provided MLBTR the following statement:
“While we have not yet seen the complaint, Juan Nunez is a convicted felon who spent time in federal prison. He betrayed his family, the players who trusted him and the very people who gave him an opportunity at a great life and career. He was terminated almost six (6) years ago, in August of 2012, after his betrayals came to light. ACES has been thoroughly investigated, and at every turn, has fully cooperated. The MLBPA exonerated us, all of the players cleared us, and it was conclusively proven that we did absolutely nothing wrong. This is nothing more than a shakedown by a man broken by his own criminal actions. We will take the fight to Mr. Nunez for any meritless and defamatory claims, and we will seek all available remedies and damages that his criminal behavior has caused.”
Given that we don’t yet even know precisely what has been alleged, let alone what evidence might be mustered, it goes without saying that the actual merits of Nunez’s claims are anything but settled. Those general caveats are certainly all the more pressing here, given Nunez’s highly problematic track record.
Nunez is perhaps best known for setting up a fake website in a misguided plot to absolve Melky Cabrera (then an ACES client) of his 2012 PED suspension. It turned out that Nunez’s ties to illicit substances went beyond that case, as he was ultimately sentenced to jail time and house arrest after copping to functioning as an intermediary between baseball players and the Biogenesis clinic. Nunez was reportedly implicated in prior scams and came with an undesirable reputation even before Biogenesis.
The MLBPA investigated the ACES agency as part of the broad Biogenesis fallout, as the agency represented ten players that were caught up in the scandal. The Levinsons vehemently denied any knowledge of Nunez’s improprieties and were ultimately cleared by the union. ACES continues to represent a lengthy list of major leaguers, as documented in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
In large part, then, this is a heavily-trodden matter that has largely been resolved. That said, there surely were many questions legitimately asked with so many ACES clients coming under scrutiny. The agency obviously benefited from the relationship with Nunez, who helped to recruit and retain Spanish-speaking ballplayers. Some around the game raised concerns with the Levinsons, as documented at the time in reports such as this one from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, though the agency has not faced discipline and has continued to operate as usual in the ensuing years.
It remains to be seen whether this lawsuit will lead to the production of new information relating to the Biogenesis matter, let alone whether there is any chance that the commissioner’s office or MLBPA will reengage a matter they’d surely like to leave in the past. That may hinge upon whether Nunez is able to produce any actual evidence. Of course, with the potential discovery process in this suit still a ways off, it is not even known yet whether this litigation will really provide a vehicle for reliable new information, let alone whether it will meaningfully change our understanding of this unfortunate epoch of MLB history.
