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Archives for February 2018

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, Williamson

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Over at Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe takes an analytic approach to forecasting a new contract for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, assuming the three-time Cy Young winner opts out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his current deal after the season. Jaffe notes that, historically speaking, seven-year deals are the norm for elite arms inking both extensions and free-agent pacts, adding that it seems reasonable for Kershaw and his reps at Excel Sports Management to strive for a record-setting average annual value that’d top the current highwater mark set by former teammate Zack Greinke ($34.417MM). That’d set the baseline at something in the vicinity of $241MM over a seven-year term, which seems staggering for a pitcher’s age-31 through age-37 seasons, though Jaffe utilizes multiple projection models and aging curves to demonstrate that Kershaw could actually be, statistically speaking, a strong candidate to nonetheless provide surplus value (or something close to it).

Jaffe also notes that the Dodgers probably wouldn’t risk a new extension beginning with the 2018 season for luxury tax purposes, though a contract announced after Opening Day and beginning with the 2019 season would not count against their current luxury tax ledger. It’s an interesting look at one of the most interesting contractual situations in all of baseball and is well worth a full look.

More from the NL West…

  • The Dodgers and Padres are both facing crowded outfield mixes, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes in a team-by-team look at the Cactus League. The Dodgers made “every attempt” to trade Matt Kemp after reacquiring him in a salary-motivated trade back in December but were unable to find a taker. He’s now competing with Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles for at-bats in left field, with prospect Alex Verdugo looming as well. The Padres, meanwhile, have Manuel Margot and Wil Myers holding down a pair of outfield spots, leaving a huge group of Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski and Franchy Cordero vying for playing time. Skipper Andy Green tells Crasnick there’s a “cutthroat competition” for playing time but also noted that the deep mix of outfielders creates the ability to platoon and play matchups more effectively.
  • The D-backs are weighing three middle infielders for two spots, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, with both Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed vying for the everyday shortstop role while Chris Owings sees time at both middle infield slots. The starting shortstop gig may come down to a battle between Marte and Ahmed, with the former being a offensive-minded option and the latter being a considerably more gifted defender. (Ahmed’s 35 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015 rank 15th in MLB at any position despite the fact that he has fewer innings played than any of the 14 players ahead of him.) Manager Torey Lovullo played it close to the vest when asked by Sanchez about his starting shortstop, simply stating that the organization “loves” all three players. “It’s probably too early for me to give you what will happen [Opening Day],” said Lovullo. “It will be unfair to these guys. They are going to compete.”
  • Giants outfielder Mac Williamson spent the offseason working with private hitting instructor Doug Latta, whose most prominent success story is Justin Turner, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Williamson spoke with Pavlovic about the changes he’s made to his swing, including the lowering of his hands and incorporation of a larger leg kick. Giants staff members have tried to get Williamson to lift the ball with more regularity in the past, Pavlovic notes, but he’s still posted an ugly 56.6 percent ground-ball rate in his career despite owning a fair bit of raw power. Pavlovic adds that Williamson is likely ticketed for Triple-A, which isn’t a huge surprise given the presence of Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Pence, Austin Jackson and two out-of-options teammates in Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez.

Brewers Notes: Outfield, Vogt, Nelson, Braun, Aguilar

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Much has been made of the Brewers’ crowded outfield and the potential need to trade someone from that mix, but manager Craig Counsell doesn’t see it that way. Speaking to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, Counsell described a rotation of Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana and Eric Thames between the three outfield spots and first base that could still get everyone from that quintet ample playing time. “If you split it evenly with five guys, that’s 560 [plate appearances] apiece,” Counsell explained, using a rough guideline of about 2800 PAs over the four positions. “With injuries and everything, we’ll find a way. Some guys will get 500, and some will get 600, but it will work out.” Of course, the Brewers also have Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips on hand, though each has minor league options remaining and could be used as a high-quality depth piece (or a trade candidate — either over the next month or later this summer).

Here’s more out of Milwaukee…

  • Catcher Stephen Vogt has been diagnosed with a shoulder strain and will miss the next two to three weeks of Spring Training games, per Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. He’ll also be shut down from throwing for a week. As Haudricourt and Rosiak note, the injury could have significant repercussions for Vogt and could very well impact the Opening Day roster. Vogt’s $3.05MM contract, like the vast majority of arbitration contracts, isn’t fully guaranteed. The Brewers could theoretically cut him and be on the hook only for 30 to 45 days of termination pay between now and Opening Day. Vogt is competing with Jett Bandy to serve as the backup to Manny Pina this season, and Bandy is out of minor league options, meaning he’d be exposed to waivers or traded if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.
  • Also via Haudricourt and Rosiak, Brewers ace Jimmy Nelson is still limited to throwing from flat ground and won’t get onto a mound until after the season starts. The team isn’t giving any sort of firm timeline on when Nelson can be expected to return to the big league club, though the report posits that a return around the All-Star break is plausible for Nelson, who underwent shoulder surgery last September after suffering an injury when diving back into first base.
  • Braun got his first work of the spring in at first base and saw plenty of action in today’s game, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. “There were runners on base quite a bit, so he was holding runners, getting a feel for that,” said Counsell. “He had a pick in the second inning. He had to get in the cutoff position on a couple of different plays. I would say it was a real positive experience for the first day. Some things to put through his head that he can check off the list as experiences.” As McCalvy points out, the Braun experiment at first base will impact more than just the outfield rotation; Braun seeing more action at first could also have a direct impact on Jesus Aguilar’s role with the club, though it’s not year clear how the Brewers will sort out their considerable depth. Aguilar, like Bandy, is out of minor league options, thus further muddling the scenario.

AL Central Notes: Morrison, Royals, Gonzalez, White Sox

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Newly signed Twins DH Logan Morrison received an offer from his hometown Royals before signing in Minnesota, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. The 30-year-old slugger said earlier in the offseason that he’d love to suit up for his hometown club, though that was before Kansas City began selling off pieces and made clear signals of a rebuilding effort. Per Berardino, Morrison’s desire to play for a contending club took priority. Morrison will join the heart of a young Twins lineup on the upswing in hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time in his career, though the questions that permeate the Twins’ rotation still leave Cleveland as a the division favorite.

More from the AL Central…

  • The Royals’ signing of Lucas Duda likely pushes Hunter Dozier to Triple-A, writes Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. However, GM Dayton Moore was “adamant” that the addition of Duda won’t serve as any type of long-term roadblock for any of the club’s prospects, instead viewing the signing as a means of adding depth and ensuring that young players such as Dozier are MLB-ready when the reach the Majors. “As I said before, we’re very encouraged about our first-base options going forward,” said Moore. “But it puts us in a position where we don’t have to rush the process. We’ve seen players like Whit Merrifield, we’ve seen players like Paulo Orlando, the importance of getting a lot of at-bats at the Minor League level as they mature, and then when they get to the Major League level and they’re much more productive.”
  • Indians infielder Erik Gonzalez left today’s game with an ankle/leg injury and is being further evaluated at the club’s Spring Training complex in Goodyear, Ariz., tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The versatile 26-year-old is attempting to make the club as a utility infielder, but he’s out of minor league options and would have to be placed on waivers before he could be sent to Triple-A early in the season. As such, any absence figures to complicate the decision and work to the benefit of his primary competition, Giovanny Urshela.
  • James Shields won’t make his Spring Training debut with the White Sox until next week, instead continuing to throw in simulated games while he fine-tunes his new delivery, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Shields dropped down to a three-quarters arm slot late last summer and pitched to a 4.33 ERA over his final 10 outings with the new delivery, Van Schouwen notes. The Sox still owe Shields $10MM of his $21MM salary in the 2018 season — the Padres are on the hook for the rest — so any decent production they can get from Shields after a pair of dismal seasons would be a bonus. Meanwhile, right-hander Nate Jones is set to make his first appearance of the spring on Thursday. It’ll be his first in-game action since undergoing surgery to re-position his ulnar nerve last season. He’s slated to earn $3.95MM this season and can be controlled for roughly $12.5MM through the 2021 season via a series of club options, making him a potential valuable trade chip or long-term asset if he can bounce back from injury.

AL East Notes: Rays, Pedroia, JDM, Lee

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Rays owner Stuart Sternberg weighed in on the MLBPA’s grievance against the Rays and three other clubs regarding concerns over the reallocation of revenue-sharing funds, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays, according to Sternberg, are “beyond” compliant with the rules. “We’re very judicious in how we spend our money, but it’s spent in a lot of forms, and payroll is one of them,” said Sternberg, going on to point out that the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 will be higher than it was in 2017. Of course, the Rays still rank near the bottom of the league in that regard, as they do every year. Chris Archer, the Rays’ union representative, also spoke with Topkin on the matter. “I have no clue what it costs to run the Dominican academy,” said Archer. “I know just from my perspective, not a whole lot has changed with the spring training facility, not a whole lot has changed at the Trop, and our payroll has not increased significantly.”

  • Veteran Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia had a bit more done to his knee than had previous been known, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. In addition to cartilage restoration work, Pedroia underwent a microfracture procedure to his tibia. Regardless, it seems that the hard-nosed veteran is progressing well given that he has now advanced to taking batting practice. Meanwhile, fellow infielder Marco Hernandez is still six weeks away from resuming baseball activities, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. Hernandez underwent shoulder surgery last May and only just had screws removed, but at least he now seems to be in sight of returning to the field.
  • In other Red Sox coverage, Bradford discusses new signee J.D. Martinez’s unique relationship with his personal hitting coach. As it turns out, new Boston hitting coach Tim Hyers is well acquainted with Martinez’s guru Robert Van Scoyoc, who’ll be allowed to continue consulting with Martinez even though he has been hired by the Diamondbacks. It’s a deep and interesting look at how Martinez’s unique approach will fit with the organization.
  • Orioles hurler Chris Lee will miss at least a month with an oblique injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to tweet. The southpaw had been viewed as one of a variety of hurlers competing for one rotation spot, a long-relief role in the pen, and/or a place in the organizational depth chart. Instead, he’ll have to work back to health before he’s able to begin pressing for his first MLB opportunity. The 25-year-old reached Triple-A for the first time last year, pitching to a 5.11 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 over 116 1/3 innings.

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

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With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

  • The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
  • Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
  • It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

Twins Sign Logan Morrison

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FEBRUARY 28: Morrison’s signing is now official.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets some further detail on the operation of the contract. Morrison can earn $500K apiece in bonus pay this year upon reaching 450, 500, and then 550 plate appearances. The number of times he strides to the plate could also impact the vesting/club option: if he tops 500 plate appearances it will move to $8.5MM; at 550 plate appearances it becomes $9MM; and at 600 plate appearances the option vests at a $9.5MM price tag.

FEBRUARY 25, 3:45pm: Morrison’s option will automatically vest if he amasses 600 PAs this year, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports (Twitter link). The deal also includes $1MM in reachable incentives each season, and Morrison’s 2019 salary could increase to $9MM, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.

1:33pm: Morrison will earn $5.5MM in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The vesting option is worth $8MM and comes with a $1MM buyout.

12:54pm: The Twins and free agent first baseman Logan Morrison have agreed to a deal, pending a physical, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s a one-year, $6.5MM guarantee with escalators and a vesting option that could make it a two-year, $16.5MM pact, Morosi adds. Morrison is a client of ISE Baseball.

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Morrison will go down among the most notable victims of this year’s slow-moving free agent market, one he surely entered with hopes of securing a richer pact after a career campaign with the Rays in 2017. Instead, between hitting free agency in November and finally agreeing to join the Twins, Morrison didn’t draw much reported interest on the market. As a result, he’ll fall well shy of the three-year, $36MM guarantee MLBTR predicted he’d receive at the outset of the winter.

While this has been a disappointing past few months for Morrison, adding him for a relatively affordable cost could be a significant coup for a Twins team that’s coming off its first playoff season since 2010. The Twins’ offense was a key reason for its success in 2017, as the unit finished tied for fifth in the majors in wRC+ (102) and seventh in runs (815). That was without high-end DH production from the duo of Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas. Now, Morrison seems likely to see the bulk of the action at DH for Minnesota, which already has Joe Mauer at first base.

[RELATED: Updated Twins Depth Chart]

The 30-year-old, left-handed-hitting Morrison was one of the majors’ most formidable offensive players last season, when he slashed .246/.353/.516 (130 wRC+) across 601 plate appearances. Morrison also notched 38 home runs and a .270 ISO, placing him among the league’s best power hitters. It was an unexpected outburst from Morrison, who was essentially a league-average hitter during stints with the Marlins and Mariners from 2010-16. He found another gear thanks to a newfound emphasis on putting the ball in the air, evidenced by a 46.2 percent fly rate (up from a lifetime 37.5), and increased patience. Morrison walked in 13.5 percent of PAs, a good bit higher than his career figure (10.5).

Morrison was also somewhat of a Statcast darling in 2017, as he upped his launch angle from 12.1 degrees in 2016 to 17.4 (h/t: Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com) and ranked among the majors’ top 32 hitters in both barrels per PA and balls hit at least 95 mph. Consequently, he finished with one of the league’s top expected weighted-on base averages (.365), just beating out his real wOBA (.363).

The addition of Morrison is the latest big move by the Twins in their efforts to overtake the Indians in the AL Central. Minnesota hasn’t lost any key contributors from the 85-win team it fielded a year ago, though third baseman Miguel Sano (potential suspension) and starter Ervin Santana (finger surgery) could each miss the start of the season. Regardless, along with Morrison, the Twins have picked up pitchers Jake Odorizzi, Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke since last season ended. Odorizzi knows Morrison from Tampa Bay, and he helped recruit him to Minnesota, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.

“I’ve had conversations with (Morrison) about here,” Odorizzi said prior to the agreement. “We’ll see what comes out of it.”

Odorizzi has also talked with free agent Alex Cobb, another ex-Ray, about joining the Twins. The club continues to seek a front-line starter, according to Berardino, so it seems possible Cobb will join Odorizzi and Morrison in Minnesota. That would further drive up a payroll which, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, is currently slated to check in at a franchise-record $124.8MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Royals Designate Billy Burns, Announce Signing Of Lucas Duda

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The Royals have designated outfielder Billy Burns, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to first baseman Lucas Duda, whose signing is now official.

Burns, 28, has received only limited MLB opportunities since landing in Kansas City in a 2016 trade from the A’s. He had turned in a highly productive 2015 season, with a .294/.334/.392 slash and 26 steals to go with quality glovework in center, but fell off badly in the ensuing campaign.

Last year, Burns primarily suited up for Triple-A Omaha. Despite an ongoing lack of power, the switch-hitter got on base at a .369 clip by drawing 44 walks against just sixty strikeouts over 413 plate appearances. On the bases, though, Burns was cut down in 11 of his 35 steal attempts.

Rangers Acquire International Bonus Money From Royals

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The Rangers have acquired international bonus pool money in a swap with the Royals, per an announcement from the Texas organization. Righty Domingo Pena is heading to Kansas City in return.

While the precise value of the spending capacity being exchanged isn’t clear from the announcement, it seems likely to be $250K. That’s how much the Rangers could still add after last week’s similar trade, and is also the baseline increment that funds can be dealt in.

All indications are that these funds are ticketed for Cuban prospect Julio Pablo Martinez, who is said to be working on a deal with the Rangers that will be finalized once he’s formally eligible to sign. There’s nothing new on that front, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler did recently report that Martinez faces an unusual $100K fine for providing incorrect information to MLB.

Pena, 19, has played in the Rangers’ system for the past three years. He first came stateside last year and has yet to pitch beyond the Rookie level. In thirty total frames in 2017, Pena pitched to a 2.70 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

Royals Sign Lucas Duda

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The Royals have officially struck a deal with free agent first baseman Lucas Duda, as Robert Murray of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter). The deal promises the Beverly Hill Sports Council client $3.5MM, per Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links).

Rather achievable incentives can also boost that salary. Per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan, Duda will receive $100K upon reaching 300 plate appearances and can take down another $100K with every twenty-five trips to the dish thereafter, topping out at 600 plate appearances and a total potential $1.3MM in additional earnings.

It seems, then, that the veteran Duda will function as the replacement for the departing Eric Hosmer. The 32-year-old Duda is significantly older, and wasn’t as productive as Hosmer in 2017, but has actually been a better offensive performer over the two players’ respective careers.

Depending upon how one slices the numbers, it’s possible to paint a more pessimistic or optimistic picture of Duda’s track record and near-future outlook. He struggled through an injury-filled 2016 season and fell off down the stretch last year after a mid-season trade. On the other hand, he hit quite well at the outset of the 2017 campaign and slashed a robust .249/.350/.483 over the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

Despite a less-than-exciting finish to the season after a mid-2017 deal from the Mets to the Rays, Duda still ended with a well-above-average .217/.322/.496 overall output with thirty home runs. That came in spite of posting only a .238 batting average on balls in play.

Of course, Duda also reverted to struggling badly against left-handed pitching after having improved in that area in 2015. For his career, Duda carries an 84 wRC+ when hitting without the platoon advantage. Clearly, then, it’d be preferable for K.C. to give him a rest against southpaws.

Despite the caveats, it’s a bargain rate for a player who has been quite productive at the plate while receiving approximately average grades for his glovework at first. Duda may not be an adequate replacement for Hosmer in the leadership or baserunning departments, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him out-hit the man he’ll replace.

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