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NL East Notes: Degrom, Lagares, Marlins

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The Mets attempted to work out a long-term contract extension with talented right-hander Jacob deGrom this offseason, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. However, those talks apparently never gained much traction. At this point, it appears as though deGrom expects to test the open market after his remaining three arbitration years are up. “As of right now, it looks like it’s going to be a year-to-year thing,” deGrom told reporters on Thursday. “I have got this year and two more, so I am still going to be here a while. If they want to extend past that, I guess we’ll see where it goes.” While those comments still imply that deGrom is keeping an open mind, the nature of his words seem to cast doubt on any chance of him giving the Mets some of his free agent years in advance the 2020-2021 offseason. He avoided arbitration this offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $7.4MM deal for 2018. The 29-year-old righty reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time in 2017 while pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. During his four major league seasons, deGrom has been worth an average of over 4 fWAR. Since reaching the majors in 2013 (and ultimately winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award), he’s posted a sparkling 2.98 ERA, having struck out 9.67 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.33.

Other notable items from around the NL East…

  • Elsewhere in the Big Apple, Mets center fielder Juan Lagares has faith in his newly-overhauled swing, Puma writes in a separate piece. Lagares reportedly spent ten days in California with Craig Wallenbrock, a well-known hitting coach. His new approach (in line with a recent trend around the league) involves an objective to hit the ball in the air more often. “The last couple of years I have hit the ball super hard, but on the ground, so I am just trying to get it a little more in the air,” he says. While it’s certainly true that Lagares’ past approach has elicited a far greater percentage of ground balls (50.8) than fly balls (28.8), his claim that he’s hit the ball “super hard” seems a bit far-fetched. Via Fangraphs, the soon-to-be 29-year-old owns a hard contact rate of just 27.5% for his career, and his figure from last season (29.6%) was just north of that.
  • A small handful of current and former Marlins front office executives are set to run marathons in seven consecutive days on seven different continents, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. The “183.4-mile racing odyssey,” as Jackson calls it, will be led by Jeff Conine; he’ll be joined by ex-Marlins-president David Samson and ex-broadcasting-executive P.J. Loyello, along with two current Miami officials and 11 other people in a fascinating enterprise that will benefit 11 charities at the expense of an immense physical toll on their bodies. “You can’t pass up a life experience like this. I’ll never have the opportunity to do something like this ever again,” Conine offered on the subject. “Why not?”

Nationals Pursuing J.T. Realmuto

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Jan. 26: Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets that the while the Nats aren’t willing to include Robles or Soto, he’s gotten the sense that the Marlins may be willing to accept a package of prospects that doesn’t include either young outfielder as the headliner.

Jan. 25: As the Marlins’ offseason fire sale continues with the trade of Christian Yelich, it seems attention will now turn to catcher J.T. Realmuto. With three years of control remaining, he’s even closer to free agency than was Yelich, so perhaps only a sufficient offer stands in the way of a deal.

At this point, the Nationals are the organization that is “most heavily engaged” in pursuit of Realmuto, according to Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Fish are maintaining a high asking price, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeting that they are trying to pry top Nationals prospect Victor Robles loose.

Interest in Realmuto has been brisk ever since he reportedly requested a trade earlier in the winter. MLBTR took a look at Realmuto’s possible trade market recently, noting that the Nationals appear to be a strong match. As I explained in breaking down the Nats’ offseason outlook, the organization could be an ideal fit for Realmuto as they look into possible upgrades over veteran Matt Wieters and youngster Pedro Severino behind the dish.

Realmuto, who’ll turn 27 in March, is entering his first of three arbitration seasons after two-straight quality offensive campaigns. His arb case remains unresolved, but he’ll be cheap regardless. Realmuto, who is perhaps the only established young catcher who’s really available by trade at all, popped 17 home runs and slashed a solid .278/.332/.451 over 579 plate appearances in 2017. He’s an athletic backstop who grades well in throwing and blocking. Though his framing numbers have lagged considerably by measure of StatCorner, the Baseball Prospectus grading system felt he turned a corner and added value with his receiving effort in 2017.

So, can the sides hammer out an agreement? It seems something will have to give first. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes that the club isn’t willing to consider top prospects Robles and Juan Soto — each of whom ranks among the fifty or so best pre-MLB assets in baseball.

The Nats are obviously weighing some other considerations in their pursuit of Realmuto. With Bryce Harper entering a contract year, the elite outfield prospects are of added importance. Washington is also interested in free agent Alex Avila, Castillo notes, keeping a free-agent option available as well.

Plus, there are competing priorities. As Castillo explains, there’s also the possibility of adding a reliever, with the competitive balance tax operating as a limiting factor. The report suggests the Nationals are “not very high” on closer Greg Holland, who’s the best remaining relief pitcher MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents.

For Miami, it stands to reason that there’s a minimum price tag beyond which the team just won’t be willing to deal Realmuto. Even if he’s disappointed with staying on board, he’d surely be seen as a valuable asset to help along a young roster and could still be dealt at the trade deadline or next winter.

Then again, the Marlins could take a closer look at the Nationals’ possible trade chips. Righty Erick Fedde and lefty Seth Romero could each represent near-to-the-majors rotation pieces in Miami. And shortstop Carter Kieboom could profile as a future regular at the position for the rebuilding Marlins. Plus, Severino or Raudy Read could turn into young replacement assets behind the dish. Of course, whether and in what combination those players might be available isn’t known.

At the end of the day, one of the two organizations will need to blink, or both will need to find a creative way to compromise, in order to get something done. But it’s not just a staring contest. Other teams, too, are surely still looking into Realmuto and could attempt to slide in with better offers if the Nats continue to be protective of their best young assets.

Mets Designate Josh Smoker For Assignment

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The Mets have designated left-hander Josh Smoker for assignment to clear space on the 40-man roster for infielder Jose Reyes, as James Wagner of the New York Times first reported shortly before the move was made official (Twitter link).

Smoker, 29, averages roughly 95 mph on his heater and has averaged 11.7 K/9 in his two big league seasons. However, he also averaged more than five walks per nine innings in 2017 and has been tagged for 1.76 HR/9 in his two MLB seasons. Control is an issue for Smoker, but given his velocity, penchant for missing bats and the fact that he has a minor league option remaining could very well lead to intrigue from other teams around the league.

With Smoker off the 40-man roster, the Mets’ lone southpaw option for the bullpen is Jerry Blevins, so they’ll assuredly hope he clears waivers and can remain with the organization. If not, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets pursue some affordable left-handed depth options to compete for a spot in new manager Mickey Callaway’s bullpen in Spring Training.

Orioles Acquire Engelb Vielma

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The Orioles announced that they’ve acquired infielder Engelb Vielma from the Giants in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com had reported just a minute or so prior that the two sides had completed a minor trade (Twitter link).

It’s been a busy few months for Vielma, who has gone from the Twins to the Giants to the Phillies to the Pirates and back to the Giants before today’s trade. The switch-hitting infielder doesn’t come with Major League experience, and hasn’t hit much in the minors. However, scouting reports tout his excellent defensive skills, making him a possible option for the Orioles, who are in need of a utility infielder.

Vielma, 23, has spent the vast majority of his career in the minors playing shortstop, though he also has experience at both second base and third base. He’s a career .256/.316/.302 hitter in the minors and spent the 2017 season between the Twins’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliate, posting a combined .229/.273/.280 batting line in 455 plate appearances.

Brewers Still Seeking Rotation Upgrades, Could Deal From Outfield Surplus

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The Brewers are the talk of Major League Baseball at present, having pulled off a blockbuster trade to acquire Christian Yelich and agreed to a five-year deal with Lorenzo Cain in a span of mere hours. Milwaukee is hardly done for the offseason, though, and reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) highlight the various avenues they can take toward further improvement.

Milwaukee is shopping outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton as it looks for an upgrade to its rotation, according to Nightengale. Rosenthal suggests a bit more softly that the Brewers are open to offers on Santana but aren’t eager to trade him, hoping instead to at times run out an outfield of Yelich, Cain and Santana. The organization has discussed the idea of utilizing Ryan Braun at first base on occasion, Rosenthal adds. While Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Eric Thames make five players for four spots, though certainly that depth wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Brewers to carry into the 2018 season.

Broxton, it seems, is something of an odd man out following yesterday’s acquisitions. The 27-year-old served as the Brewers’ primary center fielder in 2017 and hit .220/.299/.420 with 20 homers and 21 steals through 463 plate appearances. Broxton, though, also struck out at a staggering 37.8 percent clip and delivered mixed results in the outfield. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.2) considered him below average, whereas Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric credited him at +9 outs, ranking him among the game’s 15 best overall outfielders.

Broxton certainly has his warts, but the 27-year-old is controllable through the 2022 season and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason at the earliest (when he’s likely to be a Super Two player). In many regards, he fits the criteria of what the Giants are looking for in a minimum-salary center field option. He’s also out of minor league options, so if he’s not going to play a role on the Brewers in 2018, he figures to be traded.

Santana, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2021 season and is coming off an excellent season in which he batted .278/.371/.505 with 30 homers and 29 doubles. His superior production in 2017 would assuredly make him a costlier asset in trade talks with the Brewers, though he’s also a vastly superior asset for the Brewers when attempting to pry a big league starter away from clubs in trade talks.

Brett Phillips stands out as another potentially available outfielder currently in the Brewers’ mix. The 23-year-old hit .276/.351/.448 with four homers and five steals through 98 PAs as a rookie this past season, though like Broxton, he struggled with a sky-high strikeout rate (34.7 percent). The strikeout woes weren’t limited to that brief MLB exposure, either, as Phillips whiffed at a 29.9 percent clip in the minors, too. He also posted BABIP marks north of .400 in both the Majors and Triple-A in 2017, suggesting that his production was somewhat overstated. Nonetheless, the former top prospect should draw interest, as he’s controllable all the way through 2023 and does have minor league options remaining.

While the Brewers’ now considerable outfield surplus makes the possibility of a trade fairly obvious, the team could also still pursue starters on the free-agent market. Rosenthal characterizes a signing of Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb as unlikely, though the market for starters has been stagnant to the point that nearly every lower-tier option remains available for the Brewers to explore.

Royals, Alcides Escobar Discussing Reunion

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The Royals and free agent shortstop Alcides Escobar are “working toward an agreement” that would bring Escobar back to Kansas City, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports (Twitter link).

Escobar, 31, has been a mainstay at shortstop for the Royals since coming over from the Brewers alongside Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi in the blockbuster trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee. Of the 1134 games the Royals have played since acquiring him, Escobar has played in 1105 of them at the shortstop position.

A standout defender, Escobar’s bat has never really matched the value presented by his glove. He just .250/.272/.357 last season, which roughly matches the .262/.293/.348 slash he’s posted overall in 4481 plate appearances as a Royal. His Ultimate Zone Rating of 18.5 over that seven-year span, though, ranks sixth among qualified shortstops.

Epstein On Free Agency, Morrow, Core

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Though it has undeniably been a slow winter, the Cubs have been among the more active organizations in baseball, signing Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek and Brian Duensing all to multi-year deals. Still, as fans and pundits alike muse on the pace of free agency, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein revealed this week that the Cubs’ front office is in a similar boat.

In a must-read interview with The Athletic’s Jon Greenberg (subscription link), Epstein says that the glacial offseason and various theories to explain it are a frequent topic of conversation — within the front office and also with players and agents. “We’re all saying to each other, ‘I can’t believe nothing has happened’ and we’re discussing reasons why,” Epstein tells Greenberg.

It seems that those inside the game are chewing on theories much like the rest of us. We’ve addressed the slow-moving market several times throughout the winter — see, e.g., here and here — while emphasizing that it’s difficult to pinpoint causes or effects at this point. It’s somewhat interesting and notable to hear Epstein himself express similar uncertainty; what’s occurred (or not) to date has certainly set the stage for an unprecedented period of activity before the start of Spring Training and, ultimately, the 2018 season.

As noted, the Cubs have signed four players to multi-year deals already and may yet add a fifth — they’re reportedly pursuing Yu Darvish, among other free-agent pitchers — and Epstein offered some interesting insight into several of his signings to date. Though he dishes on several moves, his comments on the Morrow signing seem particularly worthy of further exploration.

Morrow, he states, was told at the time he signed that “he was our closer unless somehow, we were able to bring back Wade Davis.” (That didn’t happen, as Davis inked a three-year, $52MM contract with the Rockies.) The statement not only lends clarity to Morrow’s role but also seemingly casts doubt on the possibility of the Cubs acquiring another high-end reliever, be it free agent Greg Holland or a trade candidate such as Tampa Bay’s Alex Colome.

Morrow’s two-year, $22MM deal with the Cubs would’ve been little more than fantasy this time last year, as the 33-year-old was coming off a string of up-and-down seasons that were proliferated by injuries. He ultimately settled for a minor league deal with the Dodgers and proved to be one of the best such signees all winter, parlaying a dominant bullpen run into a two-year deal and a ninth-inning gig.

It’s worth noting that Epstein stressed the Cubs see it as a true ninth-inning role for Morrow. Much in the way the team limited Davis to one-inning stints in the ninth inning (or later in extra innings), Morrow will be deployed primarily for clean innings in save situations. Epstein’s comments on Morrow’s usage are perhaps his most interesting of all, as he outwardly expressed that the team will “take suboptimal usage on a nightly basis for a better chance [for Morrow] to stay healthy over the course of seven months.”

Of course, beyond free agency, the Cubs were expected to be players on the trade market this offseason, as Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer acknowledged early in the offseason that they’d have to be open-minded when it came to potentially trading some young position players (e.g. Albert Almora, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Ian Happ) if presented with the opportunity to add a controllable young arm for the rotation. Such opportunities never presented themselves, at least not to the extent that the Cubs saw fit to surrender any of those young hitters in trade talks with a rival club. While some would argue that the Cubs are left with a surplus, Epstein & Co. see things differently.

“It’s not a coincidence the Royals, us and the Astros all developed a position player core that came up together, went through adversity together, learned to win at the big league level, lost in the postseason and then came back in the postseason to win a championship,” Epstein explains. “…We’re sticking with our identity rather than do deals we didn’t like.”

While it seems reasonable to presume that the organization has not fully ruled out trades involving these players — indeed, the Cubs were reportedly a finalist for Lorenzo Cain, which might’ve been the prelude to a deal — it certainly sounds as if Epstein expects to keep the position-player unit intact into camp. But that doesn’t mean things won’t get interesting. With plenty of payroll space left to work with, the Cubs remain a looming presence on the free agent market — both this year and next. (After all, as Epstein notes, this offseason presented a “puzzle” in part because it comes “before a really deep, impactful free agent market next year.”)

Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich

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The Brewers have announced a blockbuster deal to acquire outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins. Outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto make up the return for Miami.

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Milwaukee entered the winter with numerous quality young outfield options. Indeed, speculation has centered on the possibility that the organization would deal from its surplus, making this move all the more surprising. On the other hand, the Brewers were relatively unsettled in center field — where Yelich would presumably line up as things stand at present — and were reported recently to have made an offer for the quality young outfielder. The Brew Crew ended up improving an area of strength by sending out two prospects originally acquired via trade (in their recent round of veteran-paring swaps) along with a pair of 2014 draft picks.

What’s most interesting about this swap, perhaps, is that it could set Milwaukee up for yet further moves, perhaps helping to facilitate a move to deepen the organization’s rotation. The organization could still deal other outfielders if it so chooses after parting with Brinson to add Yelich. Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips are among the other players on hand that could be dangled. Interestingly, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), the club will not give up its  pursuit of top center fielder Lorenzo Cain despite today’s move; in that scenario, presumably, Domingo Santana could even be dealt. Given that the Brewers also won’t be taking on much in the way of near-term salary in adding Yelich, the team could also still set out onto the open market to find a starter.

Yelich, who only recently turn 26, is guaranteed a manageable $43.25MM over the next four seasons, with a $15MM club option (or $1.25MM buyout) for the 2022 campaign. That’s a bargain rate for a player who has steadily produced at an above-average rate in all areas of the game ever since he cracked the majors in 2013.

In three of the past four seasons, Yelich has racked up exactly 4.5 fWAR. He has done that in different ways, too. Yelich has always hit at an above-average rate, but only once — 2016, when he posted a 132 wRC+ — turned in a truly superlative season at the plate. In 2017, he slashed a productive but hardly world-beating .282/.369/.439 with 18 home runs, but added greater value on the basepaths (a 6.8 BsR grade that ranked sixth in all of baseball). And it was top-notch corner outfield defense that was most noteworthy about Yelich’s performance in 2014.

Perhaps, then, there’s reason still to hope that Yelich can produce even more than he already has in a given campaign. Some also have suggested that his power could still develop, particularly if he spends more time away from Marlins Park. There are a few areas of concern — for instance, Yelich owns a mediocre career .272/.331/.373 batting line against lefties and graded poorly (-6) in center field last year in the view of Defensive Runs Saved. On the whole, though, he’s clearly one of the better young outfielders in baseball.

The price paid reflects the asset acquired here for the Brewers. By consensus, Brinson was the team’s best prospect. Though hardly considered a sure thing, the soon-to-be 24-year-old outfielder — acquired from the Rangers in the Jonathan Lucroy swap — is widely considered one of the 25 or so best pre-MLB assets in baseball. Last year, he slashed a robust .331/.400/.562 with 13 home runs and 11 steals in 340 plate appearances at Triple-A. He’s also considered a top-quality up-the-middle defender. Having briefly touched the bigs for the first time in 2017, Brinson will likely enter camp as the odds-on favorite to start in center for the new-look Marlins.

There’s depth in this prospect package, too. Harrison is likely the second-best asset heading to Miami. He hit on both ends of a promotion from Class A to High-A in 2017, compiling a .272/.350/.481 batting line on the year. Diaz, also a ’14 second-rounder, came to Milwaukee in the Jean Segura trade. He cracked top-100 prospect lists last winter.  He ended up scuffling in his first attempt at High-A — .222/.334/.376 with 13 home runs but also 121 strikeouts in 455 plate appearances — but is just 21 and still viewed as a high-quality middle infield prospect. Yamamoto is also a 21-year-old who played last year at High-A. He had an emergent campaign, compiling a 2.51 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 over 111 frames.

Yelich becomes the third excellent outfielder (joining Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna) to depart Miami this winter. The organization has loaded up on interesting young talent and drastically reduced its payroll commitments, but may well not yet be done with the dealmaking. Several higher-priced veterans could still be moved and top remaining assets like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Justin Bour could still be discussed in trade talks.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the deal (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reported the inclusion of Brinson and Diaz (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Pompey

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The Yankees would like to set aside roughly $10MM of payroll space to save for in-season promotions and additions at the non-waiver trade deadline, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As such, the actual amount of money they have left to spend this offseason is less than it would appear on the surface. (Morosi suggests that New York has $15MM to spend, though they’re currently at about $176MM in luxury tax considerations, and subtracting the $10MM figure he mentions would leave them closer to $11MM to spend.) Rather than a significant splash like jumping back into the Yu Darvish mix, then, the Yankees are likelier to add some veteran complements either to their rotation or their infield; the Yankees have been oft-connected to free-agent second basemen in recent weeks as the team eyes a bridge to prospect Gleyber Torres, who is returning from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow.

Here’s more from around the American League…

  • Tigers GM Al Avila said this week that his team could still make some additions to the 40-man roster, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes. The GM didn’t cite a specific area of need, indicating that he could have room to add a starter, a position player or a reliever. What’s clear, though, is that the Tigers don’t plan on making any kind of move that would come with long-term ramifications. “I’m not trying to come across as saying we’re going to try to pick up a pitcher here, a pitcher there and it’s going to make us so much better that we have a chance to win a championship,” Avila stated. “At this point, we might try to pick up a player here or there to, quite frankly, get us through the season, and hopefully have a guy have a bounceback and be able to make a trade later on and acquire a younger player, a piece here, a piece there, to make ourselves better little by little.” Comments like that, of course, make the MLBPA and agents alike bristle, as they’re the type of non-competitive remarks that have often been cited as a reason for the historically slow free-agent market. The Tigers have spent a bit of cash this offseason, signing Leonys Martin and Mike Fiers to Major League deals, but they won’t come anywhere near their previous levels of spending as they embark on what figures to be a lengthy rebuilding effort.
  • Right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma has been cleared to begin throwing as he rehabs from 2017 shoulder surgery, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (all Twitter links). Divish was among the reporters on hand when Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto spoke to the media about a wide variety of topics, including health updates on a number of Mariners. In addition to Iwakuma setting out on a throwing program, righty David Phelps and outfielder Guillermo Heredia are expected to be at or very close to 100 percent when Spring Training opens. Dipoto also said that lefty Marco Gonzales, who is out of minor league options, “will be given every opportunity to make our club.” Dipoto has taken some heat from fans for trading prospect Tyler O’Neill to acquire Gonzales from the Cardinals, though O’Neill’s .254/.304/.548 slash and 27 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A following the trade raise questions of their own.
  • Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey spoke with Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet about his lost 2017 season. The former top prospect was once heralded as the center fielder of the future in Toronto but struggled in his first exposure to the Majors and was scarcely able to play at all last season. Pompey suffered a concussion playing for Canada in the World Baseball Classic that effectively prevented him from any sense of normalcy for the first few months of the season. The outfielder explains that he had to wear sunglasses everywhere he went, wasn’t able to use his phone or watch television and, certainly, was not participating at baseball activities for several months. A knee injury in his first rehab game back from the concussion more or less ended his 2017 campaign entirely. Pompey still has a minor league option remaining, Zwelling notes, but he has a long way to go to prove he can still be a long-term piece for the Jays. The column is well worth a full look, as it features an in-depth look at concussion symptoms, featuring interviews with not only Pompey but also recently retired first baseman Justin Morneau, whose career trajectory was dramatically altered by a 2010 concussion.

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