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Archives for January 2018

Open Market Notes: Yankees, Boras, Gomez, Tillman, Mets

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True, the market remains quiet, but perhaps we’re reaching the point where the looming onset of Spring Training will begin to apply some real dealmaking pressure. Here’s the latest chatter:

  • The Yankees have had “minimal” contact with potential free-agent infielders, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). Rosenthal suggests that New York is rather optimistic about its internal options at second and third base, though of course it stands to reason that the club will look hard at a variety of avenues to upgrade. Rosenthal also weighs in on the trade value of Christian Yelich and a few other topics.
  • In a separate post, Rosenthal discusses the still-quiet offseason for Scott Boras and his clients. One of the super-agent’s major points of contention this winter has been that top players don’t (as a general matter) simply cease being productive in their early thirties. Over at Fangraphs, Craig Edwards provides some analysis that tends to support Boras’s position. Though massive and lengthy commitments obviously still come with ample risk, Edwards says the data shows that “good players in their 20s are likely to remain good players  in their early 30s.”
  • It seems that outfielder Carlos Gomez is maintaining contact with the Rangers — even if it requires some extra effort. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Gomez hitched a ride on a helicopter recently to hold a brief face-to-face chat with Texas GM Jon Daniels and others. It still seems there’s a potential match, though perhaps both sides are waiting to see how things look once higher-priority players make their decisions.
  • The Blue Jays have expressed some level of interest in righty Chris Tillman, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Several other organizations are reportedly eyeing a pitcher who may be the top bounceback candidate on the market. There was nothing at all to like about his 2017 work, but the 29-year-old Tillman has a long history of solid innings and might represent an excellent value if his shoulder can stay fit.
  • While the Mets are looking into bolstering their rotation mix, it likely won’t be in a manner that excites the fanbase. Per Mike Puma of the New York Post, on Twitter, the organization is looking to find one or two starters willing to take minor-league contracts. At this point, though, the Mets don’t even have a firm idea of who they’ll go after, per the report. All told, that approach isn’t surprising. After all, the Mets have other more pressing needs and certainly have the talent to fill out a five-man staff, making depth the key need.
  • Meanwhile, the Mets seem not to view Mike Moustakas as a plausible free-agent target, Puma notes on Twitter. But the team still thinks it could end up landing Todd Frazier, who’s not an altogether dissimilar player from Moustakas but is expected to command a shorter contract entering his age-32 season.

Chris Archer Expects To Remain With Rays

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Rays right-hander Chris Archer says he does not expect he’ll be traded this winter, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Per Archer, Tampa Bay GM Neander has “made me feel pretty good about being with the Rays in 2018.”

Sporadic chatter regarding Archer’s potential trade candidacy has been ongoing for years and has reportedly continued into the new year. He has been healthy and productive ever since breaking into the league, even if his bottom-line results (4.07 ERA in 2017) haven’t always been quite as impressive as his peripherals might suggest.

Better still, the 29-year-old’s contract includes four more seasons of cheap control, which helps explain his broad appeal. (Scroll back through his mentions on MLBTR and you’ll find a wide variety of teams linked in some way.) That same factor, though, also means the Rays don’t yet face pressure to cash in their best trade asset.

Though Archer was said to be a point of focus entering the Winter Meetings, no real momentum has seemed to form towards a deal. That could always change, of course; it’s not all that difficult to imagine a team deciding to up its offer for Archer and engage in a dedicated pursuit. Indeed, the resolution of the biggest free-agent pitching situations could tell on the matter, as Topkin points out.

While it doesn’t sound as if Archer has been given any assurances, though, it remains notable that he has been given such a strong indication from Neander and the Tampa Bay front office. The club already dealt away franchise face Evan Longoria, so it’s obvious that nothing is bolted down permanently. But that move did not mandate a broader rebuild. And there’s no real reason for the organization to mis-lead Archer about its intentions.

All things considered, the status quo largely remains intact. But we can perhaps say with some added confidence that the Rays will not simply be putting Archer up for auction and taking the best bid this winter. Any team that hopes to pry him loose will surely need to come with a big offer.

Of course, the team does still have other trade candidates worth keeping an eye on — including rotation-mate Jake Odorizzi. It seems reasonable to anticipate some significant action from the Rays over the coming weeks, though a variety of paths still remain open.

Glen Perkins To Retire

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TODAY: Perkins confirms in a statement on his Twitter account that he’s hanging up his spikes. So, what’s next?

I won’t be playing baseball anymore. I’ll spend my time brewing beer, smoking meat woodworking and hanging with my family. Or, the same things I have been doing just without the baseball part.

YESTERDAY: Three-time All-Star Glen Perkins will reportedly not pursue an opportunity to pitch in what would be his 13th big league season. General manager Thad Levine stated in an appearance on the Twins Winter Caravan tour that the former closer has elected to end his playing career, adding that the Twins would be interested in hiring Perkins as a special assistant should he be interested in such a role (Twitter link via 1390 AM Granite City Sports). La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune cites a source close to Perkins in reporting that the left-hander would indeed have interest in such a position.

The decision wasn’t entirely unexpected. After his $6.5MM option for the 2018 season was declined, reports indicated that the career-long Twin would either return to the organization on a minor league contract or simply elect to call it a career.

Glen Perkins | Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

A Twin Cities native who starred at the University of Minnesota before being selected in the first round of the 2004 draft, Perkins frequented top prospect lists before debuting in the Majors as a 23-year-old back in 2006. The lefty showed promise in his first tastes of the Majors from 2006-08 and looked like a potential long-term rotation piece in Minnesota, pitching to a 4.13 ERA over the life of his first 185 1/3 MLB innings.

Perkins hit a rough patch in 2009-10, though, as below-average strikeout rates and a rapidly increasing opponents’ batting average caught up with him and left him with a 5.87 ERA in 118 innings across those two seasons. Out of options heading into the 2011 season, Perkins was at something of a crossroads and responded by turning a corner and cementing himself as a mainstay on the Twins’ roster.

That 2011 season marked the first full season in the bullpen for Perkins, and he broke out with a brilliant 2.48 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent ground-ball rate in 61 2/3 innings. Perkins’ fastball had sat in the 90-91 mph range as a starter but jumped to an average of 94 mph with the move to the ’pen and ticked up another mile the following year in 2012 — the first season in which the lefty took over as the team’s closer.

Perkins saved 16 games for the Twins in 2012 and went on to rack up 32 or more saves in each of the next three seasons, earning American League All-Star honors each year along the way. In all, from 2011-15, he logged a 2.84 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 120 saves in 313 1/3 innings. The 2014 season, in particular, featured a career highlight for Perkins, as he was called upon to seal a 5-3 victory for the American League in the All-Star Game at Target Field in Minneapolis and did so in 1-2-3 fashion.

Neck and back injuries took their toll on Perkins in 2014-15, though, prematurely ending each of those seasons. The 2016 campaign proved worse in terms of health for the lefty, as he made just two appearances before landing on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. Eventually, Perkins was diagnosed with a torn labrum that required season-ending surgery. He’d go on to spend roughly 16 months rehabbing.

Perkins returned to the Twins this past season but was a far cry from his peak form, averaging just 90.3 mph on his fastball and totaling 5 2/3 innings while appearing sparsely in low-leverage situations down the stretch as Minnesota fought for a surprising Wild Card berth.

The Twins gave Perkins a fitting tribute in what will go down as the final game of his career in the penultimate game of the regular season, allowing the southpaw to come on for the final out of their victory over the Tigers. The Twins fired up Perkins’ former entrance music, Johnny Cash’s “God’s Gonna Cut You Down” as he came out of the ’pen and received a standing ovation. An emotional Perkins told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other reporters after the game that the gesture was something that he’ll remember for the rest of his life.

All told, Perkins’ entire career was spent in the Minnesota organization, and he’ll head into the next chapter ranked third all-time among Twins relievers with 120 saves. Perkins also turned in a 35-25 record and a 3.88 ERA with 504-to-158 K/BB ratio through 624 1/3 in a 12-year career that netted him more than $28MM. Best of luck to Glen in whatever is next for him, and congrats to him on a very fine career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants To Sign Chris Heston

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The Giants have agreed to a minor-league deal to bring righty Chris Heston back into the fold, according to a report from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Other terms of the contract are not yet known.

Heston, 29, is a former 12th-round pick who debuted in the majors with the Giants back in 2014. He went on to turn in a strong rookie campaign in the following year, etching his name permanently into organizational lore with a no-hitter.

Unfortunately, Heston’s career has largely sputtered since. With mounting injuries and marginal output on the hill, he has thrown just 11 MLB frames over the ensuing two seasons. Heston spent time with three organizations last year after San Francisco dealt him to the Mariners in advance of the 2017 campaign.

While expectations won’t be very high at this point, the move could certainly help bolster the Giants’ pitching depth. The team has parted with a few MLB pitching assets to improve in other areas, so non-roster players could play an important role if needs arise during the course of the season. While it’s hard to imagine Heston earning a roster spot this spring, he’s said to be healthy and could take up a key spot on the Giants depth chart.

Central Notes: Duffy, Cubs, Bauer

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Here’s the latest from the game’s central divisions:

  • Royals lefty Danny Duffy says he is throwing pain free after an offseason elbow clean-up, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. “Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort,” says Duffy. That’s good news for Kansas City, as the organization will expect the southpaw to lead an uncertain staff in 2018 and beyond — unless, that is, he isn’t traded at some point. Other organizations would no doubt have interest in Duffy’s reasonable contract ($61MM through 2021), though we haven’t seen any indication that the Royals are likely to move the 29-year-old this winter.
  • Over at The Athletic, Patrick Mooney has a pair of articles (subscription links) regarding the market’s two top pitchers. The Cubs have plenty of money left to work with, he notes, and have seemingly remained engaged with Yu Darvish for much of the winter. That said, there are still alternatives for both team and player; Mooney says the Cubs have other scenarios in mind and notes the possibility of mystery teams in Darvish’s market. It’s less clear, Mooney suggests, that there’s a realistic path back to Chicago for Jake Arrieta. As MLBTR’s 2018 Free Agent Tracker shows, Darvish and Arrieta are just a few of the many starters still available; remarkably, the Cubs’ early agreement with Tyler Chatwood still paces this winter’s market for rotation contracts.
  • The Indians are readying for an arbitration hearing with righty Trevor Bauer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Cleveland is utilizing a file-and-trial approach, says Hoynes, meaning a panel will decide whether the righty plays for $5.3MM or $6.52MM in the coming season. The results won’t just determine whether Bauer can pick up an additional $1.22MM for the coming season; his 2018 salary will also set a base rate for raises in his final two seasons of arb eligibility. As always, you can keep track of all the arbitration developments with MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker.

Latest On Pursuit Of Yu Darvish

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Jan. 23: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes that there’s “a sense” that Darvish’s talks with interested parties have gained momentum recently. Moreover, Mooney writes that Darvish’s options are “not limited to the teams identified publicly” — meaning the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees. Darvish remains a focus for the Cubs, according to Mooney, who adds that a reunion with Arrieta “appears to be a long shot.”

Meanwhile, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that a rival exec who has recently been in contact with the Twins expressed some doubt about Minnesota’s willingness to sign Darvish if it means pushing  into the $150MM territory.

Jan. 22, 10:45pm: The Cubs are “having active talks” with Darvish, according to a report from the Associated Press. That said, it’s also clear from the report that there is no agreement in place.

Speculation surrounding the connection between Darvish and the Cubs already increased earlier tonight, as it emerged that the club has a deal in place with catcher Chris Gimenez — who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.

2:01pm: Free agent righty Yu Darvish has received “at least” one five-year offer, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Crasnick does not specify if the five-year offer is the one which he’s reportedly received from the Brewers, though Milwaukee is indeed one of the teams in the mix for Darvish, per the report. The Twins, Rangers, Cubs and Dodgers are also in play at the moment, he adds.

Earlier this month, Darvish was reportedly choosing among six teams — the Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros, with one mystery team added to the bunch by Darvish himself (on Twitter). The Dodgers were later reported to remain in the mix for Darvish, and it now appears that the Brewers have joined the pursuit while the Astros are out of the picture after their acquisition of Gerrit Cole.

There’s no mention of the dollars in Crasnick’s report, and the lack of context makes it difficult to assess the situation. Much has been made this offseason of teams preferring to sign free agents to shorter-term deals at a higher annual value, and if that’s the case with Darvish’s five-year offer, then perhaps the overall value of the deal isn’t that far from early offseason expectations. (Many pundits, MLBTR included, projected six years for Darvish at the beginning of the offseason.) If the AAV is on the low end of the spectrum, however, then it perhaps isn’t difficult to see why Darvish and his reps at Wasserman have yet to jump on the contract.

With just about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still well over 100 free agents that need to find homes, so at some point one would have to imagine that either agents or clubs will begin to blink, setting the stage for a flurry of activity. There’s no evidence that Darvish and his agents are close to doing so at this juncture, though it stands to reason that his signing could have a trickle-down effect of sorts. Many of the same teams vying for his services have been linked to Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta, and once those pieces fall into place, the remaining free-agent starters on the market could conceivably begin to come off the board.

Giants Still Monitoring Outfield Market, Don’t Plan To Exceed Luxury Tax Barrier

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The Giants shored up their outfield mix with yesterday’s addition of Austin Jackson on a two-year, $6MM contract — threading the luxury tax needle by adding a veteran that serves as an upgrade while still squeezing in just south of the $197MM barrier. That doesn’t leave much room for further upgrades, but executive vice president of baseball ops Brian Sabean and GM Bobby Evans tell reporters that the Giants are still open to supplementing their outfield (links via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Notably, Sabean suggests that Jackson was “probably not” signed to be the team’s everyday center fielder. “I don’t know that in his recent history he’s been able to go out there in that fashion,” Sabean says of Jackson. San Francisco is still exploring some low-salary trade options, and prospect Steven Duggar remains a candidate to win the job (if not in Spring Training, certainly later in the season). Duggar, though, has just 232 minor league games under his belt, with only 60 of those coming in Double-A and just 13 in Triple-A.

San Francisco remains confident in its ability to acquire an additional outfielder via trade, Pavlovic writes. That’ll likely require prying loose a pre-arbitration player making near the league minimum, as the Giants are now within about $2.1MM of the luxury threshold (per Cot’s Contracts). Such assets are the types with which teams are typically loath to part, though the Brewers have reportedly been exploring trade scenarios involving their potential outfield surplus, with names like Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips circulating on the rumor mill.

The waiver circuit could present another option for the Giants as rosters are shuffled leading up to Spring Training; numerous players with some degree of big league experience figure to become available in coming weeks as teams clear roster space for veteran additions. That was the manner by which the Tigers plucked Mikie Mahtook from the Rays last year, acquiring him for a player to be named later and enjoying a fairly productive year out of the former first-rounder. (Speculatively speaking, Mahtook himself could be an option for the Giants, as the rebuilding Tigers will likely be willing to listen on virtually any player.)

If the Giants don’t succeed in landing another option to take over in center field, it seems that Jackson, Duggar, Austin Slater and Gorkys Hernandez will vie for time in center field to open the season. At the very least, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise to the Giants add a left-handed-hitting veteran on a minor league deal. Jackson, Hernandez, Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen all swing from the right side of the dish, so adding a lefty to create more matchup flexibility in the event that the left-handed-hitting Duggar opens the season in the minors seems logical.

Brewers Reportedly Make Offer For Christian Yelich

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6:30pm: The two sides have indeed been discussing Yelich, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, but Milwaukee is just one of many teams in the running. Talks between Milwaukee and Miami are not in advanced stages, per Frisaro, who adds that Brinson is a target for the Marlins in talks. That’s hardly a surprise — the Marlins figure to ask any team for its top prospect (and quite a bit more) — but there’s no indication to date that the Brewers are willing to part with the touted 23-year-old.

3:11pm: The Brewers have made an offer for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich and are showing “strong interest” in him, according to Craig Mish of SiriusXM Fantasy (via Twitter). Unsurprisingly, other teams are also still said to be involved in pursuit of Yelich.

Milwaukee’s involvement is a bit of a surprise at first glance, as the organization is overflowing with quality young outfielders and has been connected mostly to pitching this winter. Adding Yelich, though, might fill their opening in center field — assuming that Domingo Santana and Ryan Braun would continue to occupy the corners — while condensing and moving up the timeline of their overall talent pool.

Of course, the Brewers aren’t exactly hurting for options in center. The team can still utilize Keon Broxton there and/or call upon top youngsters Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson. Clearly, though, it’s not a pressing area of need, so it may well be that the club is mostly looking into the possibility in case there’s an opportunity to achieve value.

Milwaukee, though, has been said to be entertaining a number of possibilities in recent weeks. They’ve been linked to Lorenzo Cain, another less than obvious fit on paper, while simultaneously exploring trades of players such as Broxton and Santana. The Brewers also remain connected to all of the top names on the free-agent market, having reportedly made a recent contract offer to Yu Darvish. Clearly, GM David Stearns and his staff are keeping an open mind as they look to improve upon last season’s 86 wins and continue to vie for the NL Central crown, alongside both the Cubs and the Cardinals.

Yelich’s steady production, appealing contract, and youth make him a sensible fit for any number of organizations. With the Marlins entering a rebuilding period, it seems clear he’s available, though the asking price assuredly will be extreme. Miami can control Yelich for another five years at a total of just $58MM, with the fifth year of that pact serving as a club option. Yelich’s agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports, recently went on-record with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick to call his client’s relationship with the Marlins “irretrievably broken” and suggest that a trade could be best for all parties involved.

Giants Sign Austin Jackson

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Jan. 23: Heyman tweets that Jackson will earn $3MM in each year of the deal. His 2019 base salary can rise by $1MM based on the number of plate appearances he tallies in 2018, and his 2019 salary can rise by $1.5MM based on that season’s plate appearance total.

Jan. 22: The Giants have announced the signing of outfielder Austin Jackson, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter). It’s said to be a two-year, $6MM guarantee, but the Octagon client can also escalate his 2019 salary by as much as $2.5MM if he meets certain plate appearance-based targets, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic explains on Twitter.

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Jackson, who’ll soon turn 31, turned in a nice bounceback campaign in 2017 after three straight seasons of subpar offensive production. Over 318 plate appearances with the Indians, he posted a .318/.387/.482 batting line with seven home runs and three steals.

Though there’s obviously some promise in that output, it comes with a few caveats. On offense, Jackson benefited from a .385 batting average on ball in play that isn’t likely to be repeated. And his is wOBA of .378 widely outpaced his Statcast-based xwOBA of .335. (For what it’s worth, too, he mostly succeeded by dominating left-handed pitching. He has typically carried reverse splits, so it’s somewhat unclear how that ought to be interpreted.)

Importantly, too, Jackson is no longer a top-end asset in the field and on the bases. He has floated in range of average in both areas in recent years, but generally has graded as a slightly below-average fielder for the past several campaigns. It seems reasonable to believe he can still handle center, at least on a part-time basis, but he’ll surely be put to the test at the spacious AT&T Park.

[RELATED: Updated Giants Depth Chart]

There’s plenty of reason to wonder whether Jackson will be capable of coming close to repeating his output from 2017. But the contract seems to be a reasonable one for a player who has had success in both the recent and the more distant past. Certainly, the price is right for the Giants. This move dovetails with the team’s reported preference to fill out a roster without going past the luxury line.

As things stand, Jackson arguably sits atop the San Francisco depth chart in center field. That said, Giants GM Bobby Evans says that Jackson will “provide additional depth at all three outfield positions,” suggesting that the club does not expect to hand him the reins to the regular job in center. (Via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter).

The question, then, turns to what other options the Giants have to round out their outfield mix. Internally, right-handed hitters include Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, and Mac Williamson. While the first two of those players are capable of  seeing time in center, they wouldn’t add much functionality beyond what Jackson provides, particularly since the team’s veteran corner outfielders — Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen — both hit from the right side. The lefty-swinging, out-of-options Jarrett Parker is another option, up the middle, though his recent output does not inspire much confidence.

So, what options remain for the Giants? If a golden opportunity arises to add a higher-end player, particularly a left-handed hitter, then perhaps a move past the luxury tax line could still occur. Alternatively, as Baggarly notes on Twitter, the club could chase a pre-arb player while staying just shy of the tax, though that’d presumably mean either taking a risk on a less-than-certain asset or giving up good value in return. Free agents like Ben Revere could still be pursued, but anyone achievable at a bargain rate likely won’t be a good enough performer to bump Jackson into reserve duties. Of course, the team also surely hopes that left-handed-hitting prospect Steven Duggar will prove himself ready for a MLB trial in relatively short order. If the team truly believes in him but also wants a more established player to open the season without bypassing the luxury line, it’ll have to get rather creative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jon Singleton Receives 100-Game Suspension

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Astros minor league first baseman Jon Singleton has received a 100-game suspension after a third positive test for a drug of abuse, the league announced today. Right-hander Dean Deetz, also in the Astros system, has received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance enhancing substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper tweets, Deetz is ranked 22nd on BA’s unreleased ranking of the Astros’ top 30 prospects.

It’s been nearly four years since the Astros signed the now-26-year-old Singleton to a five-year, $10MM contract extension before the former top prospect had played a single day in the Majors. Singleton, viewed as a potential everyday first baseman at that point, was widely panned for selling himself short, though it now looks as if he made the correct call in taking the money when presented with the opportunity.

Singleton was called up to the Majors immediately upon signing the deal and homered in his big league debut, but that highlight proved to be one of the few he’d experience in the big leagues. The slugger went on to hit .168/.285/.335 with 13 homers in 362 plate appearances as a rookie, and he’s tallied just 58 plate appearances in the Majors since.

Singleton spent the 2016 season in Triple-A and the 2017 season back in Double-A, narrowly keeping his average above the Mendoza Line but still showing some pop and a penchant for drawing walks. Singleton is owed $2MM on that contract in 2018, though, he will not be paid during the 100-game term of his suspension. Houston had already outrighted Singleton in the 2016-17 offseason, so his suspension won’t free up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Deetz, 24, was Houston’s 11th-round pick back in 2011. He appeared in 25 games between the Astros’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season, totaling 84 2/3 innings with a 4.25 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in that time. Unlike Singleton, he was on the Astros’ 40-man roster, so his placement on the restricted list will create an opening for Houston. Deetz has formally issued a statement denying any knowing use of a PED:

“Let me say first and foremost that I have never knowingly taken a performance enhancing substance of any kind. I come from a small town, and know how fortunate I am to call myself a professional baseball player. I would never jeopardize that opportunity, or betray those who have supported me along the way, by trying to cheat in order to gain an advantage. As I explained to the arbitrator in my appeal, I have no idea how I could possibly have tested positive and although I am disappointed with the outcome, I will abide by his decision. I would like to apologize to my family, friends, the Houston Astros organization, coaches teammates and fans that have been impacted by this situation. I will continue working diligently to clear my name and, in the meantime, rebuild the trust of those who have been affected by this result.”

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