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Extension Candidate: Matt Chapman

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The chatter started last year as Matt Chapman burst onto the scene for the Athletics. The early returns were impressive. Still, Dave Cameron was seemingly pushing the envelope a bit when he asked in early August whether Chapman could be emerging as a star.

Of course, as Cameron noted, there was plenty of reason to wonder whether Chapman would really be able to hit enough to profile as a true star. The thrust of the post, really, was that his outstanding glovework made Chapman a potentially excellent player even if he only hit around the league average. From that point in the season, moreover, Chapman’s output at the plate faded, leaving him with a solid but unspectacular 109 wRC+ at season’s end.

The overall rookie showing was still plenty promising, no doubt. A quality regular on a league-minimum contract for years to come? Sign any team up, especially one that’s somehow still playing in the O.co Coliseum.

Of course, it still remained to be seen how Chapman would look over a full season in the majors, after opposing pitchers had a chance to adjust. Would his prodigious minor-league strikeout levels be too much to overcome? Would his obvious defensive talent be sufficient to carry him if the bat lagged?

Consider those questions answered. Put most simply: he finished third in all of baseball in position-player rWAR (8.2) and rated among the top ten by measure of fWAR (6.5).

With 2018 in the books, the only question left is how much it’d cost the A’s to lock Chapman in for the long run. It’s a question that was already on the minds of the Oakland brass, as the organization reportedly sought to talk about a deal over the 2017-18 offseason. Unfortunately for the club, Chapman and agent Scott Boras declined the opportunity to discuss a contract at that time.

It could be, then, that discussing Chapman’s value now is mostly an exercise in the hypothetical. But it stands to reason that the A’s will at least try to open the door to talks once again — perhaps with added motivation as they seek to continue the momentum from an exciting 2018 season and keep pushing for a new ballpark. And perhaps Chapman’s camp will show some willingness to consider numbers now that he has set down a marker as a top-end player rather than a target for a cheap pre-arb deal. He is still reasonably youthful, at 25 years of age, but won’t reach arbitration until 2021 and can’t qualify for free agency until the 2024 season — his age-31 campaign.

A lot can change in the meantime, as Chapman’s just-announced thumb surgery underscores. Fortunately, it seems as if there isn’t any reason to think that procedure will represent an ongoing problem; exactly how it could influence the possibility of a deal isn’t entirely clear, though odds are it won’t be a major factor in any direction.

In examining Chapman’s merit as a player, there’s frankly not a ton to discuss regarding his glovework. It’s lauded by scouts and stats alike and there’s no real reason to think it’ll fade any time soon. He’s also a solidly graded baserunner even if he isn’t a threat to swipe any bags. The floor, as has long been suspected, is rather lofty. Those skills won’t really pay in arbitration, which is certainly a relevant consideration in contemplating the valuation of a potential extension, but their value isn’t in question.

The bat is where it’s still interesting to dig in. Even as Chapman’s output sagged some late in 2017, he made a notable improvement in his contact ability. For September and October, Chapman recorded a 21.2% strikeout rate — far superior to what he had shown as a professional to that point. He sustained the improvement in 2018, showing a similar approach to what he exhibited in 2017 but posting a much-improved 8.8% swinging-strike rate.

Even as he put the bat on the ball more often, ultimately carrying a 23.7% strikeout rate that sits barely above the leaguewide mean, Chapman kept producing power numbers. He finished the season with 24 long balls, a .508 slugging percentage, and .230 isolated slugging mark. With a solid 9.4% walk rate chipping in, Chapman managed a .356 OBP.

There’s a lot to like here, clearly. Upping his contact rate clearly didn’t prevent Chapman from making good contact. To the contrary, he posted an outstanding 93.0 mph average exit velocity and 47.6% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. That said, some of the numbers also suggest some cause for skepticism with regard to the sustainability of Chapman’s output. His on-base numbers were boosted by a .338 BABIP — the first time he cleared the .300 barrier as a professional. Chapman’s average launch angle dipped to 14.7 and his groundball rate jumped to 40.3% (well over his minor-league average), perhaps explaining why Statcast credited him with only a .333 xwOBA — well shy of the .370 wOBA he actually recorded.

Perhaps it’s not a slam dunk that Chapman will produce at a rate thirty percent better than league average for the foreseeable future. But he has already shown more adaptability as a hitter than was generally anticipated and established a fairly significant overall offensive ceiling. If there’s some danger of regression, perhaps there’s also some possibility that Chapman will continue to improve at the plate. Supposing he settles in as a solidly above-average hitter who can’t ever quite fully combine both high-end power and strong on-base ability, Chapman could still easily run off a few more 5-WAR campaigns before he sniffs the open market.

Let’s get down to some salary numbers, then. Chapman largely matched Nationals star Anthony Rendon in output this year and likely has even greater arbitration earning upside with his potential to drive the ball out of the park. Though Rendon benefited from having originally signed an MLB contract, boosting his first arb salary, his anticipated total of around $35MM in total arbitration earnings seems to be a reasonable ballpark tally for Chapman. Of course, Oakland wouldn’t need to begin paying that for a few more years, during which time the club can pay him no more than it does any other player who happens to be taking up an active roster spot. And Chapman also was a bit slower to reach the majors, limiting his eventual free-agent value. Even if we guess he’ll ultimately command $30MM+ annual salaries in his open-market years, there’s a limit to what the A’s in particular would be willing to promise to lock those seasons in.

From a practical perspective, then, there’s reason to be skeptical that Chapman warrants anything approaching a nine-figure guarantee. He certainly would scoff at the kind of deal that he might have been presented with last offseason — say, the sub-1.000 service record deal (six years, $26MM) signed by Paul DeJong after a similarly strong 2017 debut. But there’s a reason that the current record for a player with less than two years of service is still held by Andrelton Simmons, at a relatively modest $58MM over seven years. In short, there’s not a ton for teams in this situation to gain by going wild at this early stage — particularly for players, like Chapman, that aren’t especially precocious.

It seems fair to assume that beating the Simmons deal would represent a bare minimum starting point to capture the attention of Boras, who is a notoriously hard bargainer in early extension talks, in particular. Even handing over control over a pair of free agent seasons for Chapman could, after all, have a monumental impact on his eventual open-market earning capacity. My own guess is that Boras would take aim at some other notable pre-arb targets, even if they were landed for players with more than two seasons of MLB service. The Mike Trout contract (six years, $144.5MM) is assuredly well out of reach, but Carlos Gonzalez showed way back in 2011 that even mere mortal pre-arb players can secure big guarantees (seven years, $80MM).

It might well take something approaching or exceeding that salary level to get Chapman to bite. That’d be an unprecedented payout for a player who hasn’t even recorded two full years of service time, but today’s youthful superstars seem to be holding for such a move in the market. It’s notable, after all, that we haven’t seen a premium all-around player ink a deal at that stage of his career in recent years, with the largest sub-2 extensions of recent vintage being secured by players like Simmons and Christian Yelich before they fully broke out in the manner Chapman has. Here, Chapman has not only already turned in a superstar-level campaign, but features the kind of offensive profile that will boost his arb earnings.

Whether there’s appetite on either side for a full exploration of a contract isn’t yet known. It could be that last year’s non-talks and/or the thumb surgery will interfere. Chapman may simply not have interest personally. The A’s have a clean balance sheet to work with, but they also have other priorities to address and have never yet opened a season with a payroll of even $90MM. Then, there’s the fact that the team’s record for a single contract is still owned by former hot corner stalwart Eric Chavez — a player who in some ways serves as a fairly interesting comp for Chapman on the field — which on the one hand illustrates the extent to which the Oakland organization would need to leave its comfort zone to do a deal, and on the other hand perhaps suggests it’s time it does so again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Matt Chapman Undergoes Thumb Surgery

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The Athletics announced today that third baseman Matt Chapman has undergone surgery on his left thumb. Specifically, he underwent an ulnar sided sesamoid bone excision on the troublesome digit.

While it’s never good to hear of the need for surgical intervention, it seems there’s good cause for optimism in this case. The announcement indicates that physician Dr. Steven Shin “was pleased with the outcome of the surgery and anticipates Matt to make a full recovery prior to the start of spring training.”

If that prognosis holds up, this could be a generally positive development for Chapman’s outlook. After all, he missed time and ultimately required a cortisone shot to treat the thumb during the 2018 season. Upon his return, Chapman’s offensive productivity shot up. Resolving the problems for good would obviously be quite a relief for player and team.

Chapman ended up turning in an outstanding all-around 2018 campaign, making core contributions to an A’s club that stunningly streaked to 97 wins. If he can maintain anything approaching that output moving forward, he’ll be a foundational piece for the organization for years to come.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks followed up their surprise run to the NLDS in 2017 by leading the way in the NL West for much of 2018, though an ugly late-season fade (11-24 over their last 35 games) left them with just an 82-80 record.  Now, with the D’Backs facing an already-tight payroll situation and the likely departure of some major free agents, the team could appears to be at a crossroads.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $32.5MM player option for the 2019-20 seasons ($15.MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $14.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout)

Free Agents

[Diamondbacks Offseason Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

The D’Backs spent a club-record $131.56MM on payroll last season, and they’d approach that figure again in 2019 on returning salaries and arbitration numbers alone.  Since Paul Goldschmidt’s club option and Yasmany Tomas’s player option are both virtual locks to be exercised, there’ll be roughly $77.4MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year’s payroll. The Snakes will have to decide whether to dole out a projected $51.125MM owed to a whopping 14-player arbitration class.

Keeping all those players would put Arizona over the $128MM mark, leaving the team ill-equipped to re-sign their two biggest free agents.  Patrick Corbin will be one of the most highly sought-after players on the open market this winter, while A.J. Pollock also projects for a solid multi-year deal, even if he has battled injuries over the last few seasons. Finding suitable replacements at a palatable salary level would likely mean giving up precious young talent in trade.

Whether or not the Snakes view themselves as near-term contenders, then, some paring of arb-eligible players seems likely. Judicious non-tendering might just create enough room to retain a second-tier option like Clay Buchholz or Eduardo Escobar. For instance, $9.6MM could be saved by parting ways with Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, and John Ryan Murphy. It’s possible the D’Backs could be forced to sell low by trading notable arb-eligibles like Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., or Brad Boxberger. All three players are in that unwelcome gray area of perhaps being too valuable to non-tender, yet lacking in trade value in the wake of disappointing seasons. Lamb and Souza at least come with future control rights via arbitration, increasing their value to Arizona. In the case of Boxberger, who struggled down the stretch and is entering his walk year, it could be that he’ll be dangled in trades in advance of the non-tender deadline.

Suffice to say, the Diamondbacks are in a tight spot, and GM Mike Hazen may now be facing the rebuild that many pundits expected to come when he was first hired two years ago.  The general manager has already said that the team will first look to make some trades, and try to “be creative” when it comes to formulating next year’s roster. While a full teardown doesn’t appear to be in the cards just yet, some reshuffling of the deck, at a minimum, seems likely.

Let’s break down the two choices facing the Diamondbacks, beginning with the straight-forward total rebuild option.  In this scenario, you’d see the team shop virtually all of their most valued short-term assets (i.e. Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, David Peralta, Archie Bradley and more) in order to add some much-needed depth to a farm system whose best prospects may be a few years away.  Trading Greinke would be the most obvious way to alleviate the payroll crunch, though his contact is so hefty that the D’Backs might still need to eat some money to facilitate a trade, despite Greinke pitching like one of baseball’s best starters over the last two years. On the other hand, it’s arguable he isn’t owed that much more than he’d be worth in free agency. Some clubs may prefer that three-year pact to a bidding war for Corbin or Clayton Kershaw.

Given the number of quality players on the roster, the D’Backs could shave a lot of financial obligations and also recoup enough big league-ready young talent to hope to return to contention as early as 2021.  The Diamondbacks’ solid roster, however, is also the reason why a “creative” solution might be more palatable to Hazen and company than entering into a full rebuild this offseason.  An argument can certainly be made that the Snakes could aim to contend next season while they still have Goldschmidt — who could also still be an offseason extension target — and then pivot to becoming sellers at the trade deadline if things don’t work out. In that case, the club would be prepared to start the rebuild next winter by selling off the players who are still controlled through 2020 (such as Ray, Peralta, Souza, and Taijuan Walker, assuming Walker recovers well from Tommy John surgery).

The alternative to a sell-off, then, would be strategically carving out some payroll space while still aiming to compete next season.  There are no shortage of possibilities about how the Diamondbacks could try to do this, though obviously it’d be a difficult proposition to truly stay competitive without creating further long-term problems.  It also doesn’t help matters that the D’Backs don’t have a ton of MLB-ready youngsters capable of stepping into spots left open by traded players — the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Kevin Cron, or Kevin Medrano will probably be on the big league roster at some point in 2019, though can’t be expected to be play regular roles on a contender.

Speculation has already begun about a potential Goldschmidt trade, and there’s no shortage of pain in trading away a face-of-the-franchise player who has hit at a borderline Cooperstown-level pace for virtually his entire career.  As painful as it would be to deal the star first baseman, however, it would also be the most boldly pragmatic move Hazen could make.  Goldschmidt is only controlled through 2019, he’d net easily the biggest trade return of any veteran asset on the roster, and there are several other first base options available in trades or in free agency who could at least partially replicate Goldschmidt’s production.  This is just my speculation, but if the D’Backs can find a trade partner with enough payroll space, they could move both Goldschmidt and Tomas in the same deal, taking a fairly light prospect return for the sake of getting Tomas’s albatross contract off the books.  This would create a ton of additional payroll flexibility, though the team would have to have a clear strategy in mind to reinvest the money wisely — not only to boost the 2019 outlook but also to avoid unwanted long-term obligations.

It’d be an awfully bold strategy, to be sure, but moving Goldschmidt could help Arizona address several other holes around the roster.  Center field is the most obvious area with Pollock’s likely departure, as Jarrod Dyson is more suited as bench depth than as a viable everyday option.  The D’Backs are also hoping that Souza and Lamb can rebound from injury-shortened seasons so that right field and third base can be solidified, though I’d expect the team to pursue some type of right-handed hitting utility infield depth anyway to account for Lamb’s struggles against southpaws.  Re-signing Daniel Descalso would be a boost, as Descalso was a valuable asset filling in for Lamb at the hot corner last year, and also sharing time with Ketel Marte at second base.

Arizona has been only a modest player in free agency during Hazen’s regime, so even re-signing a player like Escobar would require a bigger dive into the open market than the club has been willing to make for the last two offseasons.  The 29-year-old will merit a solid multi-year commitment as he comes off the best season of his career, though it wouldn’t be a bank-breaking price tag, and Escobar does offer more versatility as a switch-hitter and a player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions.  Even if the D’Backs did prefer to utilize Escobar primarily as a third baseman again, he could represent enough of an upgrade over Lamb that the team could take the plunge.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Arizona will hope that Marte can continue to progress at the plate after posting a career-best 104 wRC+ in 2018.  Defensive standout Nick Ahmed will likely remain as the everyday shortstop, and the D’Backs will probably try to take another glove-first approach at catcher, as the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan recently argued that Jeff Mathis was the best positional fit of any of the team’s free agents.  Mathis and Alex Avila were by some measures baseball’s best defensive tandem behind the plate, though if the veteran Mathis can’t be re-signed, the D’Backs could look into adding a catcher with a bit more offensive pop.

Dyson brings enough pluses as a defender and baserunner that the Diamondbacks could use him as the left-handed hitting half of a center field platoon, which would leave Arizona only looking for a righty bat to share time (a free agent like Cameron Maybin would be a good fit in this scenario).  Alternatively, Peralta could be moved into center field, though Peralta probably projects best as a corner outfielder.  The D’Backs might also not want shift Peralta again since, after being installed as the everyday left fielder last season, he delivered the best year of his career, hitting .293/.352/.516 with 30 homers over 614 PA.

Peralta and Ray are the Diamondbacks’ top trade chips if they balk at dealing Goldschmidt, or if Greinke’s contract prevents them from finding a trade partner.  These two are less likely to be dealt, in my opinion, since losing either would drastically weaken a position that is already taking a hit.  Losing both Pollock and Peralta would be a huge blow to the outfield, while the rotation would suffer from losing Ray when Corbin and Buchholz could depart.

Greinke, Ray, and Zack Godley are the only sure bets in the rotation as things stand, with Miller (if he isn’t non-tendered), Matt Koch, and Matt Andriese looking like the top candidates for the final two spots.  Walker will also hopefully re-enter the picture at midseason upon his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is Triple-A depth, and top prospects Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could also be ready later in the season.

There’s certainly room here for Buchholz to return, as the veteran proved to be one of the year’s best minor league signings.  Health is always a question with Buchholz, and his season was prematurely ended by a flexor mass strain in his throwing elbow, though this latest injury could actually work in Arizona’s favor if the team wanted to retain him.  Buchholz’s asking price could fall into a palatable range for the Diamondbacks if other teams are scared off by the elbow problem, and the D’Backs certainly are the most familiar of anyone with Buchholz’s health status.  If Buchholz doesn’t return, the Snakes could look at other low-cost veteran arms to compete for a starting job, or consider using the bullpen and a Rays-style “opener” to address a rotation spot.

Speaking of the pen, the closer’s job is up for grabs after Boxberger’s struggles at limiting walks and homers cost him the role down the stretch.  It’s possible the Diamondbacks could forego a full-time closer altogether, as they adopted a committee approach in September upon removing Boxberger from the job, though I would guess they might bring in an inexpensive veteran reliever with closing experience to provide added depth.  Names like Sergio Romo or former D’Back Fernando Rodney might be fits in this regard on the free agent market.  Arizona could also stand to add a bit of extra left-handed depth, though the team already has an overall solid group of relievers.

As per Hazen, the Diamondbacks have several organizational meetings planned in the coming weeks, and if the club will indeed gauge the trade market first, we may have to wait until the Winter Meetings in December before we get a true sense of the Snakes’ approach for the offseason.  Whether the D’Backs become baseball’s most popular seller or instead attempt to perform a tough balancing act, Arizona is poised to have a fascinating offseason of potentially pivotal importance to the franchise’s outlook.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Center Field

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. After checking on corner outfield options earlier tonight, we’ll look up the middle.

Teams In Need

Unless they move Dee Gordon back to the outfield, the Mariners have a hole. While the Giants have hopes for Steven Duggar, they’ll surely be on the lookout for other options this winter. Just what kind of player they’ll be interested in will depend upon who they hire to run their baseball ops department and what direction they take.

It’s arguable that several other NL West clubs should be looking up the middle, too. The Rockies could certainly stand to bump Charlie Blackmon to a corner spot, while the Diamondbacks will be looking for new blood. With Arizona potentially taking a rebuilding approach, of course, a big expenditure would seem unlikely.

While the position isn’t an area of need for the Phillies, all bets are off in Philadelphia. Just how much of a need there’ll be for the Indians isn’t known, though it’ll be hard for the team to count on a return from Leonys Martin. The Athletics were fairly unsettled up the middle, but perhaps saw enough in Ramon Laureano to more or less turn the job over to him for a full run. Perhaps there are some scenarios where the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, or Astros decide to shift around some pieces and pursue a center fielder, though that’d seemingly be dependent upon opportunity rather than need.

Whether the Reds believe they’re ready to begin winning could help decide their moves in center. An upgrade would certainly be in order if the organization wants to ramp up toward contention. Otherwise, the Rangers and White Sox aren’t settled in center and could potentially be opportunistic buyers. The Royals and Marlins are less likely to spend, and have some youthful players to try out, but also don’t have clear solutions on hand.

Free Agents

While this class doesn’t have any stars, it features at least one quality regular option in A.J. Pollock. While his durability remains a question, and he failed to sustain a hot start over the course of 2018, Pollock figures to command a strong, multi-year commitment.

Despite a middling 2018 season, sturdy veteran Brett Gardner is probably the best alternative. If his option isn’t picked up and traded, he’ll bring his typically steady lefty bat to the free agent market.

Otherwise, the market contains timeshare options at most. Players like Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Chris Young likely won’t be considered as even semi-regular options up the middle. Though all have spent significant time as everyday options in center over the years, none has shown the ability to do so productively of late. Indeed, it’s debatable whether any but Jay, Maybin, and perhaps Gomez will really be seen as realistic options to take the field in center after the defensive showings made in 2018.

Depth Options: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Shane Robinson, Jake Smolinski, Matt Szczur, Eric Young Jr.

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: It’s tough to know what the Rays are thinking, but Kevin Kiermaier is the only player they are locked into contractually. Given that he’s coming off of a subpar season, though, perhaps it’s likelier they’ll hold for the time being and hope he bounces back. The Blue Jays could consider dangling Kevin Pillar. Perhaps most plausibly of all, the Phillies could decide it’s time to move on from the enigmatic Odubel Herrera, who’d be of interest elsewhere.

Platoon/Bounceback Options: Keon Broxton may well be on the move given the Brewers’ outfield logjam. In a similar situation, the Nationals could hang on to Michael Taylor as a reserve, but it’s also possible they’ve seen enough. Taylor has plenty of glove and runs well but remains an inconsistent performer at the plate. That description is true in an even more extreme form with regard to Billy Hamilton of the Reds, a fascinating player who is miscast as an everyday piece. The Yankees and Cardinals would surely like to find takers for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler, respectively, but it’s tough to either player moving except perhaps in some kind of bad contract swap.

Lamigo Monkeys To Post Wang Po-Jung

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Taiwan’s Lamigo Monkeys will post top slugger Wang Po-Jung, as the CPBL Stats website has covered. He will become the first player posted from the Chinese Professional Baseball League, which is Taiwan’s top circuit.

Wang, who recently turned 25, has generally posted outlandish stats even by the standards of the hitter-friendly CPBL. This year, he’s slashing .351/.446/.547 over 534 plate appearances — good for what CPBL Stats tabulates to be a 151 wRC+. That’s actually down quite a bit from his absurd 2017 levels, though it’s still near the top of the table leaguewide.

To this point, if he’s known at all to North American fans, it’s likely owing to his epic bat flips. But there’s reason to believe that Wang could ultimately end up playing in the majors. As Sung Min Kim wrote earlier this year for Fangraphs, MLB scouts have already taken a look and some believe he may have a future at the game’s highest level as a corner oufielder.

Of course, it could well be that Wang will first head to Japan for some further seasoning. The formal posting process will be open to bids for posting fees from both MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball clubs. As the CPBL Stats site explains, the Taiwanese league recently amended its rules to allow players to reach posting eligibility after just three years of service — thus increasing the likelihood of retaining top domestic amateur talent on the front end. It is not immediately clear whether the CPBL posting process will echo the preexisting system (uncapped bidding, negotiation with one team) or the newer rules regime that applies to MLB transfers from the NPB and Korea Baseball Organization. Major league organizations would be limited by international spending restrictions, as Wang has not played the requisite six professional seasons to be exempt.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Corner Outfield

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we move the discussion to the outfield grass.

Teams In Need

A number of contenders and 2019 hopefuls will lose quality corner outfielders to free agency this season, including the Nationals (Bryce Harper), Braves (Nick Markakis), Indians (Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall), Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra) and perhaps the Mariners (Denard Span). The Yankees are set to lose Andrew McCutchen and could potentially bid adieu to outfield stalwart Brett Gardner, though the organization has ample outfield depth to withstand those subtractions. The A’s rode a patchwork corner outfield mix to the postseason and could look at adding a more established upgrade.

Meanwhile, a number of clubs coming off disappointing 2018 campaigns will look to reload and try again in 2018, with the Giants, Pirates, Cardinals and Phillies among the teams that could look to add a corner outfield bat with hopes of contending in 2019. St. Louis, in particular, could be in the market for a left-handed-hitting right fielder based on president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s recent comments. The Pirates, meanwhile, traded away Austin Meadows and have since lost Gregory Polanco into next summer following shoulder surgery. The Phillies are open to trading virtually anyone on the roster, so changes in the outfield are easy to imagine. How the Giants operate won’t be known until a new GM is in place, but their outfield mix leaves plenty to be desired regardless.

There are even several non-contenders who’ll simply need a veteran bat to plug in as a stopgap or an upside play; the White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Marlins and Orioles may simply want a low-cost veteran to join their rebuilding efforts.

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: Harper joins Manny Machado as a rare, star-caliber, 26-year-old free agent and will be a highly sought-after target by the market’s biggest spenders. The Nationals will surely at least consider a bid to retain him, but teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Giants will all be connected to Harper to varying extents. The Cardinals, too, could be in play for him, though they’ve never spent at that level in the past.

Teams that can’t afford Harper or don’t wish to commit a likely precedent-setting contract to the former NL MVP will still have plenty of options from which to choose. Michael Brantley rebounded from a pair of injury-plagued seasons to remind teams that he’s among the game’s best pure hitters (.309/.364/.468 with a 9.5 percent strikeout rate). Andrew McCutchen’s overall numbers in San Francisco didn’t stand out, but his output was suppressed by the cavernous AT&T Park. Beyond that, he posted excellent hard-contact numbers, giving some hope for better days ahead, and turned things on during his late-season run with the Yanks. Nick Markakis got off to a blistering start in 2018 before settling to hit like the Nick Markakis one would expect over the final five months of the year. He’s still a useful semi-regular even if he couldn’t maintain his torrid April. A.J. Pollock would provide quality glovework and a solid bat in a corner, but most teams probably prefer to install him in center — at least for the first couple seasons of a surefire multi-year deal.

Brett Gardner would bring another quality glove to the corner market if the Yankees buy out his option, though he could also be a trade candidate. Denard Span showed he can still hit in 2018 and even hit lefties well, but there are questions about his glove. Adam Jones has fallen well shy of his former star-level production in recent seasons, but his track record could earn him significant at-bats even if his OBP woes and defensive question marks are more significant than ever.

Could Marwin Gonzalez fit into this bucket, too? Houston’s Swiss army knife can play all over the diamond, and while he’s more of an infielder, he has plenty of left field experience and could hold down the fort as a stopgap before moving to an infield spot or a super utility role down the line.

Platoon/Bench Bats: Some players, such as Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra, aren’t that far removed from being quality regulars but seem more likely to find themselves in limited roles next year. Jon Jay has emerged as something of a fourth outfielder extraordinaire in recent seasons, logging significant at-bats without a set role. The venerable Curtis Granderson can still hit righties, and perhaps that’s true of Matt Joyce as well, though injuries wrecked his 2018. Melky Cabrera showed he can still hit a bit, but doesn’t have much to offer in the field. Cameron Maybin had somewhat of the opposite issue. It’s also not impossible that someone gives Jose Bautista another look, though he’s more of a minor league deal candidate.

Depth: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Brandon Guyer, Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence, JB Shuck, Matt Szczur, Chris Young

Trade Candidates

Corey Dickerson’s projected $8.4MM arbitration price tag might be a bit steep for the Pirates, especially considering his pedestrian second half of the season. He’s only controlled for one more year and didn’t have much value in last year’s trade market, though. As noted above, perhaps the Yankees will dangle Gardner ($12.5MM club option), given the depth they have surrounding him.

Arizona’s David Peralta is another productive but at least relatively expensive corner option who could hit the market. With a $7.7MM arb projection and two years of club control left for a D-backs team that’ll have to take a hard look at some degree of rebuild this winter, Peralta is a logical piece to market — especially considering his career year in 2018.

Kyle Schwarber’s name, at this point, feels to be a perennial fixture on the rumor circuit, and while his improved defense in 2018 makes him a better fit for the Cubs (and the NL in general), it also makes him more appealing to other clubs.

The Tigers have reportedly tried to extend Nicholas Castellanos on multiple occasions without success. He only has one year of club control remaining, so perhaps if they can’t work something out this time around they’ll more seriously consider moving him. His glovework is arguably the worst in baseball, but Castellanos can rake at the plate. Sticking in the AL Central, the ChiSox may have to sell low on Avisail Garcia, whose injury woes and dreadful 2018 season make him a non-tender candidate at this point.

Meanwhile, the Padres have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Wil Myers is best suited there or at first base but has been pushed to third by Eric Hosmer’s presence at first base and a bevy of other outfield options, including Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. It’d be more surprising if the Friars didn’t move an outfielder than if they did.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has been candid about the possibility of moving a left-handed-hitting outfielder, with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Drew Robinson all fitting that bill. There’s a logjam in Philly, too, where the Phils could look to move any of Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr as they remake their lineup.

Similarly, the Brewers won’t have the luxury of stashing Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana in the minors in 2019, as both are out of options. Either or both could be shopped to other clubs, and the same is true of Eric Thames, who been squeezed out a bit by last offseason’s additions and the emergence of Jesus Aguilar. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cards will very likely be open to moving Jose Martinez, though his defense grades out terribly.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler round out this section as albatross contracts their current clubs would jump at the chance to jettison, but it’s hard to see any team taking on that level of overpay. Fowler is owed $49.5MM through 2021, while Ellsbury is owed nearly the same sum ($47.28MM) through the end of the 2020 season.

MLB Issues Statement Clearing Astros Of Rule Violations

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2:40pm: Major League Baseball has issued the following statement on the investigation:

“Before the Postseason began, a number of Clubs called the Commissioner’s Office about sign stealing and the inappropriate use of video equipment. The concerns expressed related to a number of Clubs, not any one specific Club.  In response to these calls, the Commissioner’s Office reinforced the existing rules with all playoff Clubs and undertook proactive measures, including instituting a new prohibition on the use of certain in-stadium cameras, increasing the presence of operations and security personnel from Major League Baseball at all Postseason games and instituting a program of monitoring Club video rooms.

With respect to both incidents regarding a Houston Astros employee, security identified an issue, addressed it and turned the matter over to the Department of Investigations.  A thorough investigation concluded that an Astros employee was monitoring the field to ensure that the opposing Club was not violating any rules.  All Clubs remaining in the playoffs have been notified to refrain from these types of efforts and to direct complaints about any in-stadium rules violations to MLB staff for investigation and resolution.  We consider the matter closed.”

8:45am: There was no shortage of drama surrounding the Red Sox and Astros last night following a series of reports regarding an Astros employee who was removed from the photo well next to the Red Sox’ dugout in Fenway Park during Game 1 of the ALCS, as first reported by Danny Picard of the Metro News. The employee, reported by Yahoo’s Jeff Passan to be Kyle McLaughlin, was said to be pointing a small camera into the Boston dugout. However, both Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that the league’s investigation was concluded by the time Game 3 began. That probe actually revealed that McLaughlin was trying to determine whether the Red Sox themselves were illegally using video monitors to steal signs from the Astros.

Passan writes that the league has not punished the Astros for any illegal behavior following the investigation. Picard’s initial report even indicates that McLaughlin wasn’t removed from the stadium — only the media area in which he’d been set up. However, it does not appear as though this was an isolated incident.

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer further reports that the Indians filed a complaint with the league against the Astros following a pair of similar incidents in the ALDS and also reached out to the Red Sox to warn them prior to the start of the ALCS. Passan also details a complaint filed by the Athletics, who alleged that the Astros were using a clapping-based system from the dugout to relay stolen signs to the players on the field during an August game. To this point, though, there’s been no word on whether Houston was punished in that incident.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not believe the matter had any influence on the outcome of Game 1, which Boston lost 7-2. Red Sox manager (and former Astros bench coach) Alex Cora agreed. The series of complaints against the Astros, Sherman notes, could stem in part from a reputation in the industry that portrays them as a “[New England] Patriots-like” organization — that is, one that “pushes to the limits of the rules — and perhaps beyond.” Passan adds that some clubs are “wary” that Houston may utilize its Edgertronic ballpark cameras, which can record 2,000 frames per second, in sign-stealing schemes.

As Passan notes, however, the Astros aren’t the only organization that has been accused of this manner of sign-stealing efforts. While he doesn’t cite specific teams that have been placed under the microscope, it’s worth remembering that the Red Sox themselves were fined in 2017 for illegal use of an Apple Watch in the dugout in an effort to steal signs from the division-rival Yankees. The  Yankees, too, were also fined for violating a rule pertaining to the use of the dugout phone, and there have been similar reports that other teams believe the Yankees use the YES Network to steal signs from opponents. Back in 2015, the Royals believed the Blue Jays were stealing signs during the 2015 ALCS (to say nothing of the infamous “man in white” conspiracy in Toronto a few years prior).

If anything, the series of reports serves as a reminder and/or an eye-opener that most, if not all teams throughout the league are willing to push the boundaries and utilize technology in an effort to gain a competitive edge. It’s arguable that these tactics are of in the spirit of more “traditional” sign-stealing methods that have been employed for decades (e.g. runner on second base looking in on a catcher’s signs), though the advent of technology obviously presents new methods of gaining that edge — methods that exist in what is at best an ethical gray area.

The utilization of technology in sign-stealing efforts isn’t likely to go away, and it’ll continue to force teams and players into more rigorous efforts to protect signs. Hoynes notes in his column that Cleveland worked so diligently to protect its signs in the weeks leading up to the ALDS that the efforts “bordered on paranoia.” Players, too, recognize the need for increased caution.

“It’s part of the game now,” Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart tells Speier. “…The game is changing. It’s making it tougher. You see a lot of pitchers and catchers get crossed up now — it’s crazy. The game sequences, the signals that you come up with are crazy. You’ve just got to stay in tune with everything.”

Perhaps the greater issue in all of this, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston writes, is Major League Baseball’s lack of transparency on matters of this regard. As Drellich examines, the lack of clear rules in place and the unnecessarily hushed manner in which the league handles such scenarios only incentivizes teams to continue rule-bending/breaking and to make accusations in the first place.

Didi Gregorius Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Oct. 17: The Yankees announced that Gregorius had the surgery today, which “went as expected.” No further timetable was given in the press release announcing the operation.

Oct. 12: Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius underwent an MRI yesterday that revealed a ligament tear in his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone revealed to reporters today (all Twitter links via The Athletic’s Marc Carig). He’ll require Tommy John surgery to repair the injury, and an exact timeline on his return is presently uncertain, though rehab for position players is shorter than it is for pitchers. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes that Boone expressed a belief that Gregorius could return in time “to play the bulk of the season with us,” and she further tweets that GM Brian Cashman suggested a “summer” return for Gregorius is possible.

The injury is fairly jarring, as Gregorius wasn’t known to have previous elbow pain. However, Boone explained to reporters that Gregorius felt something in his elbow at Fenway Park when making a relay throw during the American League Division Series. Despite the obvious discomfort that followed, Gregorius gutted out the remainder of the series before undergoing an MRI after the conclusion of the Yankees’ season.

The uncertainty surrounding Gregorius will add a major wrinkle to the Yankees’ offseason. The team has already been linked to free agent Manny Machado dating back to last offseason, and the fact that Gregorius isn’t likely to be ready to open the season will only further fuel that connection. Adding a shortstop won’t be an imperative for the Yankees, who do have substantial depth with Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade all on the roster. Nonetheless, they’ll surely at least explore their options — likely including everything from smaller-scale depth additions to an earnest pursuit of Machado, one of the highest-profile free agents in recent history.

The very fact that Boone has suggested Gregorius will return to the Yankees is of some note. He’s up for a relatively hefty arbitration raise after hitting .268/.335/.494 with a career-high 27 home runs for the Yanks this season; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gregorius to earn $12.4MM in 2019 — a sizable step up from this past season’s $8.25MM salary. Gregorius would be eligible for free agency upon completion of the 2019 season.

If the timeline for his return is lengthy enough, however, the Yankees would likely be forced to consider a non-tender of Gregorius. The final determination on his timetable, of course, won’t be made until after he undergoes surgery, but a salary north of $12MM would be a substantial price to pay for half a season, and Torres’ natural position is shortstop. Utilizing Torres at short in 2019 would open up an even wider slate of possibilities, as the second base market has ample supply that could vastly outstrip the demand at the position.

Zach Davies Replaces Gio Gonzalez On Brewers’ NLCS Roster

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The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve replaced left-hander Gio Gonzalez on their NLCS roster following yesterday’s ankle injury; righty Zach Davis will take his place. The move renders Gonzalez, a pending free agent, ineligible to pitch in the World Series should Milwaukee advance, as players removed from the roster mid-series are automatically ruled ineligible for the following round of postseason play.

Gonzalez suffered a high ankle sprain in the second inning of last night’s game against the Dodgers when fielding an infield single off the bat of Yasiel Puig (video link via MLB.com). His short start forced skipper Craig Counsell to go to his bullpen early, which proved to be all the more significant in a game that would go 12 innings and deplete the bullpen for each team. Adding Davies to the mix, then, will give the Brewers a fresh arm while simultaneously ending Gonzalez’s season.

Davies, 25, missed a good chunk of the 2018 season due to a rotator cuff issue in his right shoulder, but he returned to the Brewers in September and posted a 3.91 ERA and an 18-to-4 K/BB ratio in 23 innings down the stretch. His overall numbers in ’18 aren’t much to look at, but Davies entered the year with a career 3.91 ERA in 388 2/3 innings with 6.6 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 after being acquired from the Orioles in a 2015 trade that sent Gerardo Parra to Baltimore as a deadline rental.

The 33-year-old Gonzalez will reach free agency for the first time in his career this offseason. He’ll head into the open market coming off 171 innings of 4.21 ERA ball in the regular season, during which he averaged 7.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 0.89 HR/9 to go along with a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. It’s the second pedestrian ERA for Gonzalez in the past three seasons, though his 2017 season was terrific in that regard (2.96), and his 2016 ERA (4.57) was heavily skewed by an uncharacteristic dip in strand rate.

Gonzalez has a solid track record over the years and was a fixture in the Nationals’ rotation for seven years after coming over in a trade from the Athletics. He’s lost about a mile off his average fastball since 2016 and turned in the worst full-season walk rate of his career in 2018 — neither of which figure to do his free-agent stock any favors. But Gonzalez has generally been a durable and dependable rotation piece since 2010, averaging 31.4 starts per season along the way. He’s only fallen shy of 30 starts once in that time (27 starts in 2014) and has posted solid run-prevention numbers with a knack for missing bats and limiting home runs.

Gonzalez’s swinging-strike and chase rates both improved substantially with the Brewers, albeit in a small sample of 25 1/3 innings, which could give interested parties some optimism in free agency this winter. At worst, the veteran southpaw should be viewed as a dependable source of 30+ starts, and if a team feels his 2018 control issues can be corrected (and/or that his improvement with the Brewers is sustainable), he could be seen as a step above that in terms of value.

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