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MLBTR Originals

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Recapping the past week’s worth of original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing team…

  • MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is underway, as we deliver a team-by-team analysis of what moves could be on the horizon this winter.  Tim Dierkes got things started with a preview of the Cubs’ offseason, and Mark Polishuk contributed outlooks on the Rays and Diamondbacks.
  • Jeff Todd and Steve Adams continued the Market Snapshot series, previewing the potential free agent and trade options available at every position (and the teams who could be interested) this winter.  This week, Steve looked at corner outfielders, while Jeff broke down center fielders, third basemen, and left-handed relievers.
  • There are a number of intriguing players who could be in line for long-term extensions this winter, including Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman and Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks.  In MLBTR’s latest Extension Candidate entries, Jeff Todd looks at what a multi-year deal could look like between Chapman and the A’s, while Connor Byrne explores what it might take to keep Hicks in the Bronx.
  • Taking a look at two notable Statcast metrics, Connor broke down the top five free agent hitters at every position, ranked by expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.
  • Paul Goldschmidt could potentially be one of the biggest trade chips available this offseason, though would the Diamondbacks really deal their longtime star?  Connor posed the question to the MLBTR readership in a poll, with 55.76% of respondents voting that Goldschmidt would indeed be switching teams before Opening Day.
  • Another NL West team was featured in another MLBTR poll this week, as Jeff asked if the Rockies should issue a qualifying offer to pending free agent DJ LeMahieu.  60.03% of readers polled arguing against LeMahieu receiving the one-year, $17.9MM contract.
  • Finally, Connor asked readers the question on the mind of the entire baseball world this week — who’s going to win the World Series?  A strong 69.39% majority of readers polled predict that the Red Sox will be triumphant over the Dodgers in this year’s Fall Classic.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

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The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that).  As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering.  Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons.  The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason.  Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season.  Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM.  That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays.  Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season.  Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons.  Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field.  A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter.  After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

  • Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season.  Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019.  The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
  • Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell.  Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season.  I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
  • Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade.  This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary.  That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
  • Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint).  Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
  • Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

  • Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix).  Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
  • Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend.  If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
  • Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup.  Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix.  If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
  • Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019.  Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt.  One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
  • Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR).  Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career.  The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup.  The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

AL Central Notes: Diaz, Kipnis, Tigers, White Sox

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The latest buzz from around the AL Central…

  • In a look at what the Indians’ lineup could look like in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that “serious consideration” is being given to the idea of deploying Yandy Diaz as a regular third baseman.  With Diaz at the hot corner, All-Star Jose Ramirez would move back to second base while Jason Kipnis shifted into a left field role.  The 27-year-old Diaz posted above-average numbers (115 OPS, 115 wRC+) over 120 plate appearances for the Tribe last season, batting .312/.375/.422.  Though Diaz’s .353 xwOBA was only slightly ahead of his real-world .346 wOBA, it’s safe to say that a healthy .371 BABIP surely contributed to Diaz’s success, especially given how Diaz continued to have issues avoiding ground balls.  (To this end, his 53.3% grounder rate in 2018 was actually an improvement over his numbers in the minors.)  When he has put the ball in the air, however, Diaz has shown some tremendous exit velocity, and he has consistently posted strong on-base skills in the minors and in Cuba.  Diaz has played all over the diamond during his pro career but has spent the bulk of his time as a third baseman, giving Cleveland an internal option at the position as they figure out how to best maximize Ramirez’s production, as well as try to solve the twin struggles of Kipnis’ two-year-long slump, and a lack of outfield depth on the roster.
  • Speaking of that latter issue in Cleveland, Pluto notes that “the outfield screams for help via a trade.”  Michael Brantley could leave in free agency and Bradley Zimmer is recovering from shoulder surgery, leaving the Indians with a projected outfield mix of Kipnis, Greg Allen, Leonys Martin, and Tyler Naquin.  The Tribe won’t have much in the way of extra payroll to spend in free agency, so signing a big name outfielder or perhaps even re-signing Brantley could be difficult.  Re-signing one of their other veteran free agents (Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Melky Cabrera) wouldn’t be a substantial upgrade, leaving the trade market as the most logical route.
  • The Tigers have been a power-heavy team for years, though as the team now rebuilds, the next generation of Tigers prospects could be developed with speed and contact-hitting in mind, MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes.  The idea would be to find fast and athletic players with the ability to both deliver doubles and triples in Comerica Park’s spacious outfield, as well as catch such potential extra-base hits when opposing hitters send liners into the alleys.  Finding such multi-dimensional players and teaching them to be fundamentally-sound in all aspects of the game is a big focus for manager Ron Gardenhire and VP of player development Dave Littlefield.
  • The White Sox are still in rebuilding mode, so The Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) figures the team will take the long view on offseason roster placements in regards to out-of-options players and potential Rule 5 picks.  Since Chicago is likelier to keep players who can provide more help for the future than help in 2019, thus leaving the likes of Leury Garcia, Kevan Smith (both of whom are out of options), and others on the bubble.

Extension Candidate: Aaron Hicks

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In shortstop Didi Gregorius and center fielder Aaron Hicks, the Yankees entered the offseason with two obvious extension candidates among their position players. But since the Yankees’ season ended Oct. 9, when the Red Sox bounced them from the ALDS, Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Consequently, Gregorius will miss a large chunk of next season – his contract year – which could make him a more logical non-tender candidate than someone who’s up for an extension. That leaves Hicks, who’s also set to become a free agent a year from now. Considering Hicks’ production over the past couple seasons, perhaps the Yankees will work to prevent him from reaching the open market any time soon.

New York bought fairly low on Hicks in 2015, seven years after he went 14th overall in the 2008 draft, when it acquired him from Minnesota for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time that it was a surprise the Twins gave up on Hicks on the heels of an encouraging season. After Hicks was essentially a non-factor in a combined 150 games from 2013-14, he managed 2.0 fWAR in 97 contests and 390 plate appearances in his final season as a Twin. Along the way, the switch-hitter mixed approximately league-average offensive production (.256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs – good for a 96 wRC+) with quality base running (13 steals on 16 attempts) and plus defense in center field (two DRS, 6.9 UZR).

Upon landing Hicks – who was then 26 years old – Yankees general manager Brian Cashman declared, “We think Aaron Hicks is an everyday player.”

Cashman’s assessment looked wildly optimistic in Hicks’ first season in the Bronx, though, as he endured a horrid campaign in which he managed minus-0.2 fWAR in 361 PA. While Hicks was fine in the field, his offensive production plummeted. Among MLB hitters who racked up at least 350 PA, Hicks logged the eighth-worst wRC+ (64), batting a weak .217/.281/.336. And when he did get on base, Hicks swiped just three bags on seven tries.

To Hicks’ credit, he put 2016 way behind him in the ensuing season, even though he wasn’t a regular at the outset of the campaign. All told, Hicks slashed an outstanding .266/.372/.475 (126 wRC+) and offered easily above-average production against both right- and left-handed pitchers. He also registered solid power numbers (15 homers, .209 ISO) with appealing walk and strikeout rates (14.1 percent BB, 18.6 percent K), and chipped in 10 steals on 15 attempts. With another season of high-end defense factored in, the big-armed Hicks was worth 3.3 fWAR over 361 PA. The only problem? He went on the disabled list with an oblique strain on two occasions, thus limiting him to 88 games.

Until 2018, Hicks only had one 100-game season on his resume. However, Hicks is now coming off a career-best 137-game, 581-PA campaign in which he truly emerged as the full-time player Cashman thought the Yankees were getting when they landed him. Hicks essentially matched his 2017 rates and continued to fare nicely against both righties and lefties, but he did so over a much larger sample en route to a 4.9-fWAR showing. While Hicks’ slash line dropped a tad to .248/.366/.467, his wRC+ increased to 127. Statcast data backs up that production, as there was little difference between Hicks’ weighted on-base average (.360) and his xwOBA (.365). The 29-year-old helped the Yankees’ cause by mashing 27 homers with a .219 ISO, putting up terrific K/BB numbers (15.5 percent and 19.1 percent, respectively), stealing 11 of 13 bags and, per FanGraphs, contributing elite base running in general.

If there’s one statistical gripe with Hicks’ season, it’s that the advanced metrics didn’t particularly like his defense. After he totaled a whopping 15 DRS – including 12 in center – in 2017, he fell to minus-3 this past season. UZR (0.7) and Outs Above Average (minus-3) weren’t all that bullish on Hicks’ work, either. No matter, Hicks was still one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in 2018, and if the Yankees expect that to continue, they may try to lock him up in the coming months.

The question: How much might it cost New York to extend Hicks? Although several outfielders have signed extensions over the past couple years, none are that comparable to Hicks in production and/or his closeness to free agency. One possible exception is Charlie Blackmon, who – like Hicks now – had five-plus years of service time and was only a season away from free agency at this time a year ago. Blackmon ended up inking a five-year, $94MM guarantee to stay in Colorado last spring, when he had just begun his age-31/32 season. While Blackmon garnered that contract as a player who was a couple years older than Hicks is now, the former also offered a more accomplished track record. Blackmon was a two-time All-Star, a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, an NL batting champion and a past MVP candidate when the Rockies ponied up for him. Hicks doesn’t have any such honors on his resume.

If Blackmon’s deal is out of reach for Hicks, perhaps one of the recent big-money contracts given to a center fielder in free agency would be more realistic. A pair of center fielders – the Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler and the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain – scored five-year contracts worth $82.5MM and $85MM, respectively, on the open market over the previous two winters. Fowler inked his pact on the brink of his age-31 season, while Cain signed his as a soon-to-be 32-year-old. Age is on Hicks’ side in both cases, then; however, like Blackmon, both Fowler and Cain had more established track records than Hicks when they signed, and it helped that they had multiple teams bidding on them in free agency.

While the comparisons are imperfect, Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports likely wouldn’t be out of their depth to push for an extension in the neighborhood of the contracts Fowler and Cain received. He still has another full season to play before he turns 30, after all, and is fresh off back-to-back years in which he was among the game’s premier center fielders. Whether the Yankees will consider an extension for Hicks this offseason is unclear, especially considering fellow outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier are under long-term control, and they may pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. For now, Hicks is projected to play 2019 for $6.2MM – a bargain in light of what he brought to the table from 2017-18.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, JDM, Wright, Kimbrel

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The latest on the American League champions:

  • When the Red Sox go on the road to face the Dodgers in the World Series, they could feature an interesting defensive alignment. Speaking with reporters (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) on Saturday, Cora revealed that the Red Sox are considering deploying right fielder Mookie Betts at second base in Los Angeles, where they won’t have the luxury of using a designated hitter. In doing so, the Red Sox would keep DH/outfielder J.D. Martinez’s elite bat in the lineup. No matter what, Martinez is going to play, though the team’s not giving any thought to putting him at first base, Mastrodonato reports. Martinez has next to no experience at first, whereas Betts played plenty of second base as a prospect and most recently lined up at the keystone 14 times as a major league rookie in 2014.
  • Left knee issues have shelved Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright since Sept. 29, but the knuckleballer hasn’t ruled out a World Series return, per Mastrodonato. Although the Red Sox had to remove him from their ALDS roster when the playoffs began two weeks ago, Wright has been throwing since then, and he issued a fairly encouraging update Saturday. “My arm and body feels really good, just a matter of can my knee withstand the pressure of throwing off a mound consistently?” Wright said. He’ll “go through a few tests” before the Red Sox decide whether to include him on their World Series roster, according to Cora. Wright threw a short simulated game Sunday to help determine the status of his knee, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. The 34-year-old was an asset out of the Red Sox’s bullpen during the regular season, when he notched a 1.52 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .191/.303/.314 line.
  • It hasn’t been a banner postseason for all-world Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, who has allowed at least one earned run in four of five appearances. However, Kimbrel may have begun a turnaround in his most recent outing Thursday, when he threw a scoreless, hitless frame with two strikeouts and a walk to close out the Astros in the ALCS. Kimbrel revealed afterward that he had been tipping his pitches – something former closer Eric Gagne first noticed while watching from home, Ben Harris of The Athletic writes (subscription required). “There’s quite a few people, but actually Eric Gagne texted me last night,” Kimbrel said. “He’s good friends with AC (Alex Cora), and he texted me and gave me some advice.” As part of an interesting piece that’s worth checking out, Harris goes on to break down what Kimbrel was doing wrong and how he fixed it.

Joe Girardi Out Of Running For Rangers’ Managerial Job

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12:49pm: The Rangers actually informed Girardi that “they were going in another direction,” Heyman tweets.

9:54am: Joe Girardi has withdrawn from the Rangers’ managerial search, as Jon Heyman of Fancred reports and as Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telgram first suggested. As of now, it appears Girardi will work as a television analyst for the second straight season in 2019.

Girardi previously exited the derby to become the Reds’ next manager, which helped lead to David Bell’s hiring on Sunday. Bell was also a candidate with the Rangers, who are likely now down to six choices for their managerial job, per TR Sullivan of MLB.com. Aside from Girardi and Bell, the Rangers have reportedly discussed the position with Rocco Baldelli, Don Wakamatsu, Jayce Tingler, Brandon Hyde, Dusty Wathan and Joe Espada.

On paper, Girardi would have been an odd fit for either Cincinnati or Texas, given that neither team looks like a short-term contender. The 54-year-old most recently managed the Yankees from 2008-17, a decade-long span in which they went 910-710 in the regular season, earned eight playoff berths and won a World Series title (2009).

Angels Hire Brad Ausmus As Manager

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12:29pm: Ausmus received a three-year contract, according to Maria Guardado of MLB.com.

12:02pm: The Angels announced that they’ve named Brad Ausmus their new manager. Ausmus spent the 2018 season working as a special assistant to Angels general manager Billy Eppler.

“Over the past few weeks, our baseball operations personnel sat down with numerous highly-qualified and impressive candidates for our managerial role. We are thankful to all of them for their time and effort throughout the process,” Eppler stated. “Ultimately, Brad’s balance of connectivity, communication and leadership skills as well as his understanding of evolving strategies and probabilistic approach to decision making led us to him. We believe his knowledge, drive and growth-mindset will allow him to integrate seamlessly with our players and staff and will be pivotal in advancing our culture and moving us toward our goals as an organization.”

The 49-year-old Ausmus – a former major league catcher – is taking over for another ex-MLB backstop, Mike Scioscia. Now an Angels icon, Scioscia took the helm in 2000 and finally ended his reign when he stepped down less than a month ago.

In the wake of Scioscia’s exit, the Angels reportedly interviewed 10 managerial candidates; at one point in the process, it appeared the job would go to their Triple-A skipper, Eric Chavez. In the end, though, the Angels opted for someone with major league managerial experience in Ausmus, who oversaw Detroit’s dugout from 2014-17. The Tigers went 314-332 with one playoff berth and two seasons of at least 86 wins during that period.

In shifting from the Angels’ front office to their dugout, Ausmus will hope to turn around a disappointing situation in Anaheim. Even though the Angels have the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, they’ve finished under .500 three years in a row and haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2014. The club hasn’t even won a postseason game since Trout’s remarkable career began in 2011. A rash of injuries helped undermine the Angels’ efforts in 2018, of course, though it still would’ve been a tall task for a healthy LA team to make the postseason in the AL West – a division which included two playoff teams (the Astros and the Athletics) and the 89-win Mariners.

At 80-82, the Angels ultimately finished 23 games behind the Astros and 17 back of the A’s, giving them plenty of ground to make up during the offseason. With Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton leading their offense, it seems the Angels will mostly focus on improving their pitching staff over the winter. The starting staff is in desperate need of help, especially considering Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery on Oct. 1 and probably won’t pitch next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Hire David Bell As Manager

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The Reds have hired Giants vice president of player development David Bell as their manager, per a team announcement. Cincinnati awarded Bell a three-year contract with a club option for 2022.

The move represents a homecoming for the 46-year-old Bell, a Cincinnati native with deep ties to the organization. Bell’s grandfather (Gus Bell), father (Buddy Bell) and brother (Mike Bell) all played for the Reds, and Buddy is a former Reds coach who now works in their front office. David Bell didn’t play for the club during his long career as a major league infielder, but he did manage in its minor league system from 2008-12, running its Double-A team for three years and its Triple-A squad for one.

Bell hasn’t garnered any managerial experience at the big league level, though he did work in multiple capacities with a few organizations in between his Reds stints. He was a third base coach with the Cubs in 2012 before serving on then-manager Mike Matheny’s staff in St. Louis from 2013-17. Bell first worked as the Cardinals’ assistant hitting coach before becoming Matheny’s bench coach. He left last fall to join the Giants, whose farm system he wanted to modernize.

“There’s incredible information, and it has to factor into everything we do,” Bell explained to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle last March. “It’s there. If we don’t access, utilize and implement that information, we’re going to fall behind.”

While it’s unclear how beneficial Bell was to the Giants’ farm system during his brief time with them, his modern outlook helped him land on other teams’ radars this month before the Reds hired him. Bell interviewed for both the Blue Jays’ and Rangers’ vacant managerial posts prior to joining the Reds, who counted him among roughly a dozen candidates for their job. Bell quickly emerged as the favorite for the position, beating out other serious candidates in Brad Ausmus and Rocco Baldelli. It helped Bell’s cause that Joe Girardi withdrew from contention Friday in a move that “surprised” Cincinnati, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

As he begins the next phase of his life in baseball, Bell will be tasked with helping to turn around a Reds team that hasn’t earned a playoff berth or even finished .500 since 2013. While the Reds showed flashes in 2018 under interim manager Jim Riggleman, who took over for the fired Bryan Price, they still ended up with fewer than 70 victories (67) for the fifth consecutive season. There is some enviable position player talent on hand, though, especially in the infield – where the Reds boast first baseman/franchise cornerstone Joey Votto, second baseman Scooter Gennett, shortstop Jose Peraza and third baseman Eugenio Suarez. The club’s pitching staff is a problem, on the other hand, but there are at least a few potential building blocks in the fold in starters Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani and closer Raisel Iglesias.

It’s likely the Reds, who plan to increase payroll in 2019, will spend the offseason trying to improve their pitching staff. Regardless, the Bell-led Reds will be in for another tough test next year in the NL Central, which featured four plus-.500 clubs and two playoff teams in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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As sports fans know, Los Angeles and Boston have battled for NBA supremacy on several occasions. The two cities will square off again beginning Tuesday, but instead of the Lakers and Celtics fighting for a championship, it’ll be the Dodgers and Red Sox vying for a World Series title. At the outset of the 2018 MLB season, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see either of these teams in this position. Nearly seven months later, however, it’s fair to say the clubs took wildly different paths to arrive at this point.

The Red Sox were dominant from the jump, winning 17 of their first 19 games, and they didn’t let up much en route to a league-best 108-54 record. The club finished with the sport’s second-best run differential in the process (plus-229), thanks largely to a Mookie Betts– and J.D. Martinez-led attack which crossed home plate more than any other offense. Despite being an AL MVP front-runner, Betts’ production has fallen flat this postseason (.578 OPS in 44 plate appearances), making it all the more impressive that the Red Sox went 7-2 against the majors’ only other 100-win teams – the Yankees and Astros – in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Earning a playoff berth was never in doubt for the Red Sox, but the Dodgers were in peril at multiple points during the regular season. The team was supposed to roll after winning an NL pennant last year and losing a seven-game classic to the Astros in the World Series. Instead, the Dodgers began the season in catastrophic fashion, winning just 16 of their first 42 games – a stretch in which they saw star shortstop Corey Seager undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery. Things were so dire for the club in mid-May that I polled MLBTR readers on whether the Dodgers would even make the playoffs. Nearly 65 percent of voters said they wouldn’t. But manager Dave Roberts never wavered during the Dodgers’ horrific start, declaring:  “When it’s all said and done, the Dodgers will be at the top of the division.”

The Dodgers ultimately did rally to win the NL West for a sixth straight year, but they were in third place in the division as late as September. They also needed to win a Game 163 versus the Rockies to settle it, and after cruising past the Braves in a four-game NLDS, they went the distance against the Brewers in a seven-game NLCS. To this point, the Dodgers own a 99-75 record (92-71 during the regular season), which pales in comparison to the Red Sox’s mark. But they did run away with the NL’s regular-season run differential title (plus-194), giving them a 102-61 Pythagorean record which is right in line with Boston’s (103-59). They also led the majors in position player fWAR and wRC+, and topped the NL in pitcher fWAR and runs scored. All of those numbers help illustrate that the Dodgers are where they belong, despite their trying regular season.

Looking beyond the stats, this series has no shortage of interesting storylines. It begins in the dugout, with Roberts (an ex-Boston player) versus rookie manager Alex Cora, a third-round draft pick of the Dodgers in 1996 who was a member of the team from ’98-2004. Both managers had signature moments in those teams’ uniforms – Roberts served as a playoff hero for the curse-breaking Red Sox in 2004, the same year Cora capped off an 18-pitch at-bat with a home run.

On the field, a pair of the most dominant lefties ever – Boston’s Chris Sale and LA’s Clayton Kershaw – could match up on multiple occasions, and they’re supported by bullpens that feature all-time great closers (the Red Sox’s Craig Kimbrel and the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen). Those pitchers will contend with offenses which possess transcendent hitters, including Betts and Martinez on the Boston side and LA’s Justin Turner and Manny Machado – a longtime Oriole who has spent almost all of his career in the Red Sox’s division. Machado, whom the Dodgers acquired over the summer in response to Seager’s injury, hasn’t hidden his disdain for the Red Sox in the past.

With Machado on the verge of becoming one of the most sought-after free agents ever, this series may be his last in a Dodgers uniform. As his Dodgers tenure potentially winds down, perhaps Machado will help deliver the franchise’s first World Series title since 1988. On the other side, the Red Sox will attempt to take home their fourth championship since Roberts contributed to their cause a decade and a half ago. Which team do you expect to end up as the last one standing in 2018?

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AL East Notes: Yanks, Happ, Sabathia, O’s, Gaston, Rays, Baldelli

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A few notes from the AL East:

  • With the offseason now underway for the Yankees, general manager Brian Cashman discussed several topics of interest in an interview with Mike Francesa of WFAN earlier this week. As free agency and trade season approach, the Yankees are expected to be among the majors’ most active teams in the starting pitching market – especially considering left-handers J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia are without contracts. Indeed, Cashman revealed: “We’re excited about adding to our rotation. It’s going to be a focus point for us, and there’s going to be a lot of competition, regardless of the available players out there. We need to continue to reinforce that rotation.” As for Happ and Sabathia, Cashman declared that “they’re going to get a lot of consideration, not just from us but from a lot of people.” The 36-year-old Happ, whom New York acquired from Toronto in July, fit in well with the Yankees during the regular season and is now fresh off his fourth straight strong campaign. He seems like a shoo-in to land a multiyear deal, whereas Sabathia, 38, may have to settle for his second consecutive one-year pact. A Yankee since 2009, Sabathia re-signed with the team for $10MM last offseason and then continued his late-career renaissance during the 2018 campaign.
  • Although the Orioles lost out on the Mesa brothers, two highly touted outfield prospects who chose the Marlins over the O’s on Saturday, Baltimore’s still “hopeful” about signing young right-hander Sandy Gaston, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. Even after their Saturday signings, the Marlins may still try for Gaston – who, like the Mesas, hails from Cuba – but the Orioles could easily outbid them (or anyone else) at this point.
  • Even though he has never managed at any level, Rays coach Rocco Baldelli has interviewed with five skipper-needy teams in recent weeks. Despite his inexperience, it’s no surprise the 37-year-old has drawn serious interest from teams seeking a manager, argues the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who notes Baldelli packages youth, intelligence, communication skills and a knowledge of analytics. That’s a coveted blend in the modern game, and as Topkin points out, it doesn’t hurt that a.) Baldelli comes with front office/scouting experience and b.) is part of a club that just wrapped up a successful season under his boss, manager Kevin Cash. The Cash-led Rays plan to return the same coaching staff in 2019, Topkin reports, though they may have to replace Baldelli.

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