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Poll: Bryce Harper Vs. Manny Machado

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With free agency now open across Major League Baseball, it’s only a matter of time before we see a pair of players receive the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, two in-their-prime, Hall of Fame-level talents, figure to dominate headlines as long as they’re unsigned. It seems inevitable that both players will reel in contracts in excess of $300MM, and that may be a conservative estimate. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd project Harper to land a 14-year, $420MM pact and Machado to sign a 13-year, $390MM deal. There would be substantial risk in either of those contracts, needless to say, but it’s not every winter that a couple 26-year-old superstars reach free agency.

For a little while longer, the richest free-agent contract in major league history will belong to now-retired third baseman Alex Rodriguez, whom the Yankees re-signed to a 10-year, $275MM accord after the 2007 season. However, a current Yankee, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, owns the largest deal ever. He signed that contract – a 13-year, $325MM extension – in 2014 as a member of the typically small-spending Marlins, whose new ownership group felt it had no choice but to get Stanton’s money off the books last winter on the heels of an NL MVP-winning season.

It’s now conceivable that the Yankees will sign at least one of Harper or Machado to join Stanton in their lineup, but their interest in/need for either is unclear. Even if the Yankees do chase one or both of those players, they’ll face quite a bit of competition from other teams capable of handing out mega-deals.

Like Stanton, Harper already has an NL MVP on his resume, having won the award in 2015. That still easily ranks as Harper’s best season, but the longtime National has starred in nearly every campaign since he made his much-anticipated debut as a 19-year-old in 2012. Dating back to then, the lefty-swinging Harper ranks 10th in the majors in wRC+ (140, meaning he has been 40 percent better than the average offensive player) and 12th in position player fWAR (30.7, good for 4.6 per 600 plate appearance).

If there are any legitimate knocks on Harper, they may be his defense and injury history. Regarding the former, Harper ranked second to last among all major leaguers this past season in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-26) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-14.4). The defensive struggles he displayed in 2018 may be a reason to worry or simply a fluke, as the metrics viewed Harper as a competent outfielder during his previous seasons. Although Harper didn’t hold his own with the glove in ’18, he did appear in a career-high 159 games. The durability he showed off last season couldn’t have come at a better time for Harper, who missed 51 games in 2017 and whom injuries have limited to fewer than 120 contests two other times.

With the exception of 2014, in which he only played 82 games, availability hasn’t been a problem for Machado. Since 2013, his first full season, Machado has racked up at least 156 appearances on five occasions. He played 162 games this past year, which he divided between the lowly Orioles and the NL-winning Dodgers, and turned in his third campaign with at least 6.0 fWAR.

Going back to ’13, Machado sits seventh among position players in fWAR (29.0, which equals 4.5 per 600 PA), though he hasn’t achieved his value in quite the same way as Harper. From 2013-18, 47 players combined for a higher wRC+ than the righty-hitting Machado’s 121, though that’s still an outstanding number. Furthermore, he happens to be coming off a personal-best offensive campaign (141 wRC+) in which he belted 30-plus home runs (37) for the fourth straight year.

There’s little doubt Machado will continue to be a formidable offensive player in the coming years, but whether he’ll serve as a defensive force could hinge on his position. Machado has been an all-world third baseman throughout his career, yet he prefers shortstop – his primary position in 2018, when he logged minus-13 DRS and minus-6.5 UZR.

The biggest concern with Machado, though, may come down to character. He didn’t leave teams or fans with the best impression during this fall’s postseason, in which he was accused of being a dirty player. He also came under fire in the playoffs for a lack of hustle, including during the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Red Sox, and admitted to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in mid-October: “Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

That’s not the mindset a team wants from any of its players, let alone a face-of-the-franchise type. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely to deter some club from awarding the incredibly gifted Machado one of the two biggest pacts in baseball history. For better or worse, he and Harper are primed to occupy a massive chunk of their next teams’ payrolls for several years to come. The question is: Which of the two do you believe has a better chance to live up to his next contract?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Outright Five Players

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Nov. 4: Despaigne has elected free agency, the Angels announced.

Nov. 3: Despaigne has not yet cleared waivers, per his agent.  Should he do so, the 31-year-old may opt to reject the assignment and become a free agent.

Nov. 2: The Angels announced Friday that right-handers Deck McGuire, Odrisamer Despaigne and Eduardo Paredes have all cleared waivers, as have infielder Jefry Marte and catcher Francisco Arcia. All five have been assigned outright to the minor leagues.

Marte, 27, saw the most playing time of the bunch in ’18, appearing in 90 games and tallying 209 plate appearances for the Halos. He gave the Angels a fairly productive part-time bat back in 2016, but since that time the corner infielder has posted a dismal .199/.271/.346 slash. The right-handed-hitting Marte has played primarily first base in the Majors but also has more than 300 innings at the hot corner and nearly 200 innings in left field.

Despaigne, 31, was roughed up for 17 runs in 18 2/3 innings late in the year when pressed into duty for an Angels staff that was decimated by injuries. The journeyman righty has bounced around the league on a series of waiver claims and minor league deals since signing with the Padres back in ’14. In 349 2/3 innings between San Diego, Baltimore, Miami and Anaheim, Despaigne has a 4.94 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 mark.

The 29-year-old McGuire and 23-year-old Paredes each limped to ERAs north of 6.00 in fewer than 30 innings of work. McGuire is a former first-rounder who’s yet to pan out in the big leagues but has had some recent success in the upper minors. Paredes, though he has youth on his side, has had some control issues in the upper minors and hasn’t impressed in a pair of big league seasons.

Arcia, meanwhile, made his big league debut as a 29-year-old this season and posted a .654 OPS in 20 games. He posted a .282/.353/.393 slash at the Triple-A level this year and has a dozen minor league seasons under his belt.

Cubs Still Deciding Addison Russell’s Fate

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Shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension last month for a violation of Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, but that won’t necessarily conclude his tenure with the Cubs. While it appeared last month that the Cubs would indeed cut ties with Russell, they haven’t yet made a decision on his future, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports (subscription required).

According to Mooney, Chicago’s currently doing its “own due diligence, outreach and additional research” on Russell, who earned a suspension a couple weeks after his ex-wife, Melisa Reidy, alleged that he abused her verbally, emotionally and physically during their marriage. Even though Russell called the allegations “completely false” when they were leveled against him in late September, he opted against appealing MLB’s punishment. As a result of that 40-game ban, which began Sept. 21, he’ll sit out the first month of the 2019 season.

In the wake of his suspension, the 24-year-old Russell looked like either a trade or a non-tender candidate for the Cubs this offseason. That may not end up being the case, but if Chicago does non-tender him, it would need to do so by the Nov. 30 deadline. As of now, Russell’s projected to earn $4.3MM via arbitration for 2019. Considering Russell has been a capable starter for most of his career and the Cubs are dealing with a lack of financial flexibility, that price tag looks palatable from the team’s perspective.

Regardless of his salary, retaining Russell would understandably open the Cubs up to harsh criticism – especially after president Theo Epstein offered his support to the victim last month and said that “we all have an obligation to be part of the solution” with respect to domestic violence issues. For the Cubs, being part of the solution in this case could mean keeping Russell and trying to help rehabilitate him, as Mooney writes that he may benefit from the team’s “overall structure” – which includes a mental skills department and the “progressive” Epstein.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Trout, Arenado, Marwin, Realmuto

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

2018-19 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is well underway, as we’ll be providing overviews of what all 30 teams are likely to have in store for their winter moves.  This post will be updated with links to each article as it is completed in the coming weeks.

NL West

NL Central

NL East

AL West

AL Central

AL East

Quick Hits: Mets, Rangers, Escobar, Trumbo

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Some stray items from around the league…

  • It isn’t yet known if assistant GM John Ricco or special assistant J.P. Ricciardi will remain with the Mets in the front office of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (Twitter link) reports that both Ricco and Ricciardi are expected to join Van Wagenen and Omar Minaya at the GM Meetings this week.  The Mets reportedly want to retain both Ricco and Riccardi, though club COO Jeff Wilpon did say prior to Van Wagenen’s appointment that the new general manager would have hiring authority.
  • Are Nomar Mazara and Jurickson Profar extension candidates or trade candidates for the Rangers?  Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News feels the team should hold off on a Mazara deal at least for now, as Texas would be selling low on a former top prospect who has yet to really display that ability at the big league level (.258/.320/.425 with 60 homers over 1720 career PA, with just 1.5 fWAR over three seasons), plus Mazara is only entering his age-24 season and could still break out as a Rangers cornerstone.  Profar was once seen as the best prospect in baseball, yet injuries have stalled his career, making it unlikely that the Rangers would invest in an extension for a player they still don’t know if they can count on as a long-term piece.  By that same token, Profar probably doesn’t have a ton of trade value if Texas shops him around to rival teams.
  • From that same piece, Grant argues that the Rangers should try to acquire a quality starting pitcher this winter as “seed money” towards a future contender.  Grant feels Texas probably won’t be ready to contend until 2021, though since the Rangers have a huge need for pitching right now, the club could acquire a notable starter as something of a “relevancy tax” to help keep fan interest up, and then conceivably trade this pitcher for future assets later.
  • With free agency upon us, Eduardo Escobar chose to sidestep the open market entirely by re-signing with the Diamondbacks on a three-year, $21MM contract.  Multiple rival executives felt the deal was a good one for the D’Backs, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required), with one exec speculating that Escobar’s price tag could’ve reached as high as four years and $40MM.  As Rosenthal noted, however, the market is crowded with several other infield options, and Escobar could have found himself forced to take the sort of below-market contract that many other free agents had to settle for last offseason.  Since Escobar enjoyed his time in Arizona, Rosenthal wonders if other players could prioritize a good situation rather than take the risk of a protracted free agent stint.
  • The Orioles will be open to moving any and all veterans as they rebuild, but it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll be able to deal Mark Trumbo this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Owed a hefty $13.5MM in 2019, Trumbo was already going to be a tough sell in trade talks, but his season-ending knee surgery at the end of August almost surely ruined his stock for any potential suitors.  Trumbo’s surgery isn’t expected to limit him for the start of Spring Training, and the O’s will have to hope that he performs well in the first half of the 2019 season to potentially become a trade candidate by the deadline.  Trumbo rebounded from a sub-replacement level season in 2017 to hit a solid .261/.313/.452 with 17 homers over 358 PA in 2018, though he’ll need to significantly top those solid numbers to increase his trade value, given his salary and defensive limitations.

Harper/Machado Notes: Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Giants

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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will drive the action of the 2018-19 free agent market, as the two 26-year-old stars are in line to land the two biggest contracts in baseball history.  Here’s the latest buzz on what teams may or may not be preparing to pursue either of the duo…

  • The Braves have been mentioned as speculative suitors for Harper and Machado, and Atlanta even had some interest in Machado at the trade deadline.  A pursuit of either player this winter, however, might not be in the cards, as per GM Alex Anthopoulos’ comments in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Siriux XM (audio link).  “We can be in on any player, we certainly have the dollars to do that.  I don’t know that it makes a lot of sense….to do deals that are ten years in length and longer at significant dollars with the payroll that we have,” Anthopoulos said.  “It’s not a rule for us, but I tend to not see a ton of value from our club that that would make sense for us….That doesn’t mean we won’t at least explore some things and see if we could line up on the right deal and the right term, but I am reluctant to go extremely long in terms of length.”  Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal (signed in February 2014, long before Anthopoulos was with the franchise) is the biggest contract in Braves history, though that extension was signed while Freeman was still 24 and in his first arbitration-eligible year.
  • Could the Mets take a run at Machado?  Recent history would seem to indicate against it, though the New York Post’s Joel Sherman lays out the case why pursuing Machado wouldn’t be so far-fetched an idea, starting with new GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s statement about how the team is planning to contend in 2019.  Signing Machado would obviously be a big help on that front, and Sherman also notes that keeping Machado away from the Yankees would also be of interest to the PR-conscious Wilpon family.  In terms of payroll, the Mets don’t have any salaries whatsoever on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus even Machado’s 2019 salary could be covered via injury insurance payouts from David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes’ contracts.  Sherman also speculates that adding Machado would turn young shortstop Amed Rosario into a very valuable trade chip the Mets could use to address other needs, or the team could try a scenario where Machado plays shortstop in 2019 and Rosario moves to second base, with Machado potentially moving back to third base in 2020 once Todd Frazier’s contract is up.
  • The Cardinals will check in on Harper as part of what could be a busy offseason for the team, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  As one industry source puts it, the Cards are “sending signals they are out to be a player” as a response to their three-year postseason drought, and also because they’ve missed out on other some major winter targets (i.e. Giancarlo Stanton, David Price) in recent years.  While the Cardinals still have some hesitations about extended long-term commitments to players, they could agree to such a contract in unique cases — as Goold notes, the team’s willingness to take on Stanton’s contract could hint that they are open to the record-setting deal it would take to land Harper.  Installing Harper as the everyday right fielder would make Dexter Fowler expendable, though St. Louis could also give Harper some time in center field while platooning Fowler and Harrison Bader between the two outfield spots.
  • The Giants also made a run at Stanton last winter, and San Francisco makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Harper, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes in a subscription-only piece.  Beyond the major upgrade Harper would bring to the Giants’ shaky outfield, Harper could find the Bay Area as much of a fit as another often-controversial star (Barry Bonds) did years ago, though obviously Bonds had the hometown factor in his favor. Olney notes that Giants owner Charles Johnson “was all-in on the idea of adding Stanton,” and the club’s traditional willingness to spend big on free agents could be more indicative of future plans than what the Giants’ yet-to-be-named new general manager has in mind.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the past week…

  • Bryce Harper topped MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, as Tim Dierkes, Jeff Todd, and Steve Adams analyze the top 50 names on the market and try to forecast where each could end up by Opening Day.  The ranking also contains predictions on contract sizes, with Harper (14 years, $420MM) and Manny Machado (13 years, $390MM) each projected to surpass Giancarlo Stanton as the most expensive contract in baseball history.
  • This winter’s edition of the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker was also launched, to help keep track of the status of every single free agent on the open market.
  • Veteran reliever David Robertson will test the free agent market for the second time in his career, though Robertson will this time represent himself in negotiations, rather than deploy an agent.  In exclusive comments to MLBTR, Robertson explained his reasoning behind the unique choice.
  • Over two-thirds of readers polled (67.37%) by Connor Byrne predicted that Clayton Kershaw would be in a Dodgers uniform in 2019.  That prediction ended up being accurate, as while Kershaw could’ve opted out of the remaining two years of his contract and become a free agent, he instead signed a new three-year, $93MM deal that will commit him to Los Angeles for an extra year.
  • MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series continued, as we break down what each of the 30 teams has in store for the winter months.  The latest entries focused on the AL Central, as Steve covered the Twins, while Mark Polishuk looked at the Tigers.

Quick Hits: Arenado, White Sox, Moncada, Rangers

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Speaking Friday with reporters – including Kyle Newman of the Denver Post – general manager Jeff Bridich revealed that the Rockies and Nolan Arenado have had “honest” discussions about a contract extension over the past couple years. Bridich added that he expects the two sides to continue talking in the coming months, and suggested the team’s unlikely to trade the superstar third baseman this offseason. “There’s not a perfect timeline or a specific timeline, but we’d love to have him here, and he knows that,” Bridich said. “We’ll see what happens … We expect him to be on our team next year.” Arenado has been a speculative trade candidate because he’s facing his last year of team control in 2019, when he’s projected to rake in a whopping $26.1MM via arbitration. But the 27-year-old is integral to the Rockies, who have earned two straight playoff berths and, with Arenado’s help in 2019, figure to aim for another postseason trip in what could be his last hurrah with the club.

Here’s more from around the majors:

  • Yoan Moncada has called second base home since the White Sox acquired him from the Red Sox in 2016, but it’s possible he’ll head to a new position next season. General manager Rick Hahn said Friday (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicag Sun-Times) that Moncada’s open to switching spots, “but we’re going to wait to see how this offseason plays out before we fully commit to any reconfiguring of the infield. It’s a possibility and if it were to happen we’d likely firm that up before we head to spring training.” Shortstop, third base and even center field have come up in the past as potential long-term landing spots for Moncada, whose athleticism has been a key selling point since his days as a star prospect. Now, if Chicago’s truly considering moving the 23-year-old Moncada off second, it could help inform its offseason plans.
  • In addition to discussing Moncada’s status, Hahn highlighted which areas the White Sox will try to upgrade this winter. “We need to augment both the starting rotation and the bullpen,” he said (per Van Schouwen), though he cautioned that the White Sox must keep their “long-term focus” in mind. At the moment, Chicago has the payroll room to make substantial upgrades, but it’s also coming off a 62-win season – its sixth straight sub-.500 campaign. As such, it’s unclear just how aggressive the White Sox will be this winter, but Hahn noted that he hasn’t ruled out pushing for contention in 2019. “It’s not unintentional having the flexibility we enjoy going forward,’’ Hahn said. “That was a secondary goal of the rebuild, to make sure we had flexibility and economic strength when the time was right to spend and add on to what we’ve accumulated. Whether we use it this offseason or next we’ll see.’’
  • The Rangers addressed their rotation Friday by acquiring left-hander Drew Smyly from the Cubs, though Texas still has plenty of work remaining to bolster its starting staff for 2019 and beyond. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News examines a dozen free-agent pitchers the Rangers could target this offseason. Among the candidates, longtime Angels right-hander Garrett Richards stands out as a “perfect fit,” opines Grant, who argues the Rangers should offer him a two- or three-year contract with incentives. Given that Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July, he might not be able to contribute at all in 2019. However, that’s not necessarily a problem for the Rangers because they’re unlikely to win next season, Grant notes, adding that Richards may be able to help them in 2020 – when they could be closer to contention.

NL Notes: Reds, Braves, Teheran, Markakis

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Reds minor league right-hander Jairo Capellan died in a car crash in the Dominican Republic on Saturday, the team announced. He was 19 years old. Two other Reds minor leaguers – righty Raul Hernandez and outfielder Emilio Garcia (both of whom are 19) – were also in the car, and each player suffered injuries. Hernandez is currently in critical condition, while Garcia is in stable condition. “We received this terrible news and send our condolences and support to the families, friends and teammates of Jaro, Raul and Emilio,” said Reds CEO Bob Castellini. “Our Dominican operations are an integral part of the Reds organization, and this tragedy affects us all. We will remain closely involved to help everyone through this difficult time.” MLBTR joins the Reds in extending our condolences to the families, friends and teammates of all three players.

Here’s lighter news on another National League club:

  • Although Julio Teheran has long been a workhorse in Atlanta, where he has totaled 30-plus starts in six straight seasons, his status with the team is “in limbo,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Even if the Braves are unable to find a trade partner for Teheran this offseason, they may not guarantee him a rotation spot in 2019, when he’s due $11MM, Bowman adds. Next season’s the last guaranteed year of the $32.4MM extension Teheran signed in 2014. At that point, the Braves were hoping Teheran would emerge as a front-line starter for the long haul. That hasn’t really happened, but Teheran has nonetheless been a competent major league starter. The right-hander is also still relatively youthful, as he’s coming off an age-27 season in which he logged 175 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball. Teheran’s peripherals were less impressive than his run prevention (as has been the case throughout his career), however, and his already unimposing velocity trended downward.
  • More on the Braves, who haven’t officially closed the door on the Nick Markakis era, Bowman relays. Markakis is currently a free agent, though, and Bowman reports that the Braves will see if they can acquire a more powerful outfielder before potentially circling back to him. Set to turn 35 on Nov. 17, Markakis just wrapped up a four-year, $44MM contract, over which he offered slightly above-average offensive production (103 wRC+) in 2,745 plate appearances. Markakis, to his credit, was exceptionally durable as a Brave, as he missed just 12 games over the span of his just-expired deal. He took the field for all 162 games this past season and put up his best numbers as a Brave, hitting .297/.366/.440 (114 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 2.6 fWAR.

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