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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The White Sox will make pitching additions as they begin to see the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel, and have the payroll flexibility to pursue the biggest names in free agency if they so choose.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Welington Castillo, C: $7.75MM through 2019.  Includes club option for 2020.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $4.65MM through 2019.  Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $23.15MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Overview]

With two rebuilding years in the books, the White Sox figure to make a push toward opening their next competitive window this winter.  2019 might serve as a transitional year, with higher expectations and at least some small chance of reaching the playoffs.  GM Rick Hahn explained in September, “We’ve made no secret that when the time comes for as we’ve described adding more finishing pieces that we knew those were going to have to come via free agency.  While we are not yet in a position realistically to be adding so called finishing pieces, we are in a position where we need to be opportunistic with regards to the free agent market.”

Let’s take a look at the White Sox payroll situation.  With only Castillo, Jones, and Anderson under contract for a total of $13.3MM in 2019, it’s wide open.  We project the team’s six arbitration eligible players to total around $36.7MM, though the team could easily jettison Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia, and Davidson if they feel they have better options.  So the team’s likely commitments are in the $38-50MM range.  An Opening Day 25-man roster payroll in the range of $110-120MM is plausible, based on the team’s historical spending.  Bottom line: this team can afford just about any contract.

In 2018, catching duties were handled by Omar Narvaez, Kevan Smith, and Welington Castillo.  Smith has already been lost to the Angels on a waiver claim.  Narvaez, 27 in February, has shown himself to be a capable hitter over the last two years.  He’s also been one of the game’s worst pitch framers and isn’t adept at throwing out attempted thieves.  Castillo was signed a year ago to take on primary catching duties, but he was popped in late May with an 80-game suspension for PED use.  The team is set to roll in 2019 with a Castillo-Narvaez tandem, with top catching prospect Zack Collins waiting in the wings.

Jose Abreu just finished his fifth season as Chicago’s first baseman.  Abreu, 32 in January, has offered a stabilizing veteran presence for the White Sox.  GM Rick Hahn has surely fielded offers over the years, but Abreu’s skillset isn’t one that would likely draw a large return on the trade market.  Now, he has only one year remaining until free agency and an ever-growing salary.  There’s no reason to push for an upgrade or trade this winter, but any contract extension would have to be fairly modest in nature.

Yoan Moncada, just 23 years old, put in his first full season as the White Sox second baseman.  The results were a mixed bag, with about league average offense and the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball.  It was still a decent season.  The idea of trying Moncada at third base or even center field has been broached, but may not be necessary for 2019.  Similarly, shortstop Tim Anderson, 25, put in a useful campaign but still has room to grow.  One of the two, more likely Moncada, may be pushed soon by 2018 first-rounder Nick Madrigal.  The Sox deployed Yolmer Sanchez at the hot corner this year, and the 26-year-old did acceptable work holding down the fort defensively and bringing energy to the team.  He may be best served back in a utility role.

Clearly, there is room for improvement in the team’s infield.  The name on everyone’s mind: Manny Machado.  Hahn made a trade offer for Machado in December, despite the shortstop’s impending free agency.  Perhaps the idea was to help sell Machado on Chicago in an attempt to sign him before he hit the open market.  The 26-year-old would easily plug in on the left side of the infield for the White Sox, though I’m guessing the team would have a slight preference to put Machado at third base rather than his preferred shortstop.  Still, I don’t think Anderson’s presence will be a major impediment to a possible pursuit.  The White Sox check all the boxes for Machado: they have the interest, need, and payroll space.

Though the franchise has never even done a $70MM contract,  let alone one that could be more than five times that, there is precedent from almost 20 years ago.  Back in 1996, the White Sox signed slugger Albert Belle to a five-year, $55MM deal that was the largest in baseball history at the time.  The deal even included a clause that required Belle to remain one of the “top three salaried players for the life of the deal,” as Claire Smith wrote in the New York Times, or else become eligible for free agency.  “We’re not being fiscally irresponsible because we can afford it,” said owner Jerry Reinsdorf at the time.  On the other hand, baseball salaries have grown well beyond inflation since 1996.  $55MM in 1996 is the same as $88MM now – not $350-400MM.

Beyond that, a push for Machado would be slightly wasted if the team wasn’t otherwise built up to contend in 2019 with major pitching additions.  Rebuilding teams have certainly signed star players “early” in the past, but getting a five-plus win season from Machado in 2019 is a key part of signing him.  So the work wouldn’t be done with just Machado. The Sox could, of course, also look to upgrade at third base with someone other than Machado.  They could attempt to trade for Maikel Franco, Kyle Seager, or Jake Lamb or sign Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas, for example.

Avisail Garcia is the incumbent in right field.  Garcia had multiple DL stints for a hamstring injury this year and was scheduled for knee surgery in October.  He’s been a replacement level player for his entire career outside of 2017, and he projects for an $8MM salary in his final season before free agency.  Keeping him and hoping for a rebound is a reasonable gamble given the team’s payroll space, but the White Sox could also trade or non-tender Garcia if they are thinking bigger.  Like maybe Bryce Harper bigger?  The rationale for Harper is much the same as Machado.  That said, the White Sox have a long and often contentious history with Harper’s agent, Scott Boras.  I don’t know whether Reinsdorf has an appetite for tangling with him on a record-setting contract for Harper, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Left field was manned by many different players for the White Sox in 2018, mainly Nicky Delmonico, Charlie Tilson, Leury Garcia, and Daniel Palka.  The team received little production from these players, though Palka showed big power against right-handed pitching.  Generally, everyone was just keeping the seat warm for Eloy Jimenez, who is MLB-ready and currently rates as the third-best prospect in baseball.  Jimenez figures to finally get the call in late April, allowing the White Sox to control him for the better part of the next seven seasons.  Even as a rookie, he might be the team’s best player.  Jimenez could be an option at either outfield corner, and he’ll surely be a regular once he’s promoted.

Palka, 27, was a nice waiver claim for the White Sox a year ago.  He hit 27 home runs in 449 plate appearances for the Sox this year, and even with a lot of strikeouts and scarce walks, his power plays against right-handed pitching.  His defense needs work, and he’s yet to show that he can hit lefties in the Majors.  He’s an option to replace or platoon with Garcia in right field, but may be better served in a DH platoon with Matt Davidson.  Depending on whether the Sox want to keep Garcia and how they feel about Palka’s defense, they could turn to the market for a better outfielder to pair with Jimenez.  Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, and Marwin Gonzalez are the best non-Harper options in free agency.  Hahn could also go down a tier to the likes of Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, though neither projects as a difference-maker on the field next year.  The trade market has a few decent options, perhaps including David Peralta, Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Martinez, Yasiel Puig, Kyle Schwarber, and Wil Myers.

The White Sox gave most of their center field playing time to Adam Engel, who got the job done defensively but served as one of the worst hitters in baseball.  A.J. Pollock is the only real free agent option.  He’d be a good fit for the Sox, except that they’d have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K since Pollock received a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks.  There’s a price at which that makes sense.  The Sox could also hit the trade market, perhaps for someone semi-interesting like Michael A. Taylor or Odubel Herrera.

The team also must weigh the considerable number of outfield prospects who could arrive in the Majors about a year after Jimenez: Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo, and Luis Gonzalez.  There’s an argument for simply adding a stopgap veteran to improve depth in 2019, and then evaluating which prospects are MLB ready for the following season.

The White Sox gave most of their DH time to Davidson and Palka this year.  The pair can make for an effective platoon.  Still, if the White Sox don’t mind tying up the spot with one player, Nelson Cruz would give an excellent boost to the offense without a long-term commitment or loss of a draft pick.

With James Shields hitting free agency, the White Sox are poised to lose their 2018 innings leader in the rotation.  They also lost top young pitcher Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery in September.  Reynaldo Lopez, 25 in January, authored a dominant finish (five runs in his last 40 innings) to push his ERA under 4.00 for the year.  The Sox surely hope he’ll be a rotation fixture for the next five years or more.  Carlos Rodon, 26 in December, is under team control for three more seasons.  He limped to the finish line, allowing 28 earned runs over his last 27 1/3 frames.  Both pitchers are locked in for 2019, despite middling peripheral stats that should temper enthusiasm.

It’s difficult to find the bright spots in Lucas Giolito’s season.  The 24-year-old righty put up a 6.13 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9, and a 44.4% groundball rate in 32 starts.  Nonetheless, it sounds like Giolito is penciled in for 2019.  I imagine he won’t get another 32 starts if he doesn’t take a step forward.  Dylan Covey, a 27-year-old former first rounder, had a few flashes of brilliance and should be in the rotation mix.  Top White Sox pitching prospect Dylan Cease moved up to Double-A in June and dominated, suggesting a 2019 MLB debut.  Dane Dunning should arrive in 2019, as could Jordan Stephens.  The team’s 2015 first-round pick, Carson Fulmer, struggled mightily at both Triple-A and the Majors, and will have to pitch his way back into the picture.

Some kind of addition makes sense for this rotation.  Again, there’s really no one the White Sox can’t afford.  They can throw big money at Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi, or look at more affordable options, including Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, or even Shields.  If he can be sold on Chicago, 27-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi would fit better into the team’s likely window of contention.  Garrett Richards would be another forward-looking pickup, since he should return from Tommy John surgery in 2020.  The trade market could include Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy, and Julio Teheran.

Hahn spoke recently of the need to “augment the rotation and the bullpen” this winter, and picked up former top prospect Manny Banuelos as a possible bullpen option.  Holdovers in the bullpen will likely include Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer, and Juan Minaya.  DH/first baseman Matt Davidson could contribute more as a mop-up man, which would be a fun story.  The Sox also have interesting options who reached the Majors this year in Ian Hamilton, Jose Ruiz, Thyago Vieira, Ryan Burr, and Caleb Frare. Tommy John recipient Zack Burdi could join the mix. I wouldn’t expect the White Sox to spring for Craig Kimbrel, but there’s a slew of solid options they can go after in free agency depending on their willingness to spend.

The White Sox payroll situation cannot be stressed enough: they could theoretically add Machado ($30MM projected annual salary), Corbin ($21.5MM), Pollock ($15MM), and Jeurys Familia ($10MM) and still have a payroll within their historical norms.  Most likely, though, the White Sox are a year too early to go nuts in the offseason.  If the team falls short on or ignores Machado and other big names, fans can still dream on a strong 2019-20 free agent class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks

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What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).

Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …

  • The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
  • The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
  • Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
  • Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
  • Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
  • Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.

Mariners Hire Paul Davis As Pitching Coach

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The Mariners announced today that they have hired Paul Davis as their new pitching coach. Previously, the club decided not to bring back Mel Stottlemyre in that role.

Davis had been with the Cardinals organization, most recently serving as their manager of pitching analytics. This will be his first experience on a MLB coaching staff. In the team’s press release, GM Jerry Dipoto praised Davis for his “exceptional understanding of the mechanics of pitching, as well as the balance to make evidence-based decisions.”

Reds Hire Turner Ward As Hitting Coach

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The Reds announced today that they have hired Turner Ward as their hitting coach. He’ll join the still-developing staff of new skipper David Bell.

Ward, 53, had served in the same capacity with the Dodgers since the 2016 season. Previously, the former big leaguer worked as a minor-league manager and the assistant hitting coach for the Diamondbacks.

With the news, it seems that former hitting coach Don Long will not be retained, at least in his prior role. The club recently hired pitching coach Derek Johnson away from the division-rival Brewers. It’s unclear as yet how the remainder of the staff will shake out.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will be left looking for a replacement hitting coach. The team is already seeking to hire a new third base coach after Chris Woodward left to become the Rangers manager.

Health Notes: McCullers, Miller, Ohtani, Meyer

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Health considerations can certainly have a major impact on the development of the player market. Here are the latest notes on several hurlers whose medical reports bear watching:

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow acknowledged yesterday that the team is awaiting word on the status of righty Lance McCullers Jr., Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes. McCullers has dealt with forearm problems that have created plenty of uncertainty entering the offseason. Luhnow acknowledged that a surgical outcome is on the table. When asked whether he anticipates McCullers being with the club in 2019, the GM responded: “If he has surgery, no. If he doesn’t, yes. Any time you’re talking about an elbow injury, [surgery] is one path to resolving it.” That isn’t the most optimistic stance, even if it is still possible that McCullers will avoid surgery, as it clearly suggests he’s dealing with a significant injury. Needless to say, losing the 25-year-old would create a major opening in a rotation that is already bidding adieu to several notable pieces.
  • The news on veteran southpaw Andrew Miller is generally more promising. Agent Mark Rodgers tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Miller has been given a clean bill of health after a 2018 campaign that was marred by ongoing knee issues. If that is indeed the case, then Miller could be an immense value in free agency. Of course, he’s also closing in on 34 years of age and has endured plenty of wear and tear, so interested clubs will surely take a close look for themselves at the medicals. MLBTR has taken a rather bullish stance on Miller’s earning potential, predicting he’ll be capable of securing a three-year deal with a $9MM AAV.
  • The Angels provided updates on two notable righties today, as Maria Torres reports on Twitter. Shohei Ohtani is said to be on track in his Tommy John rehab, though certainly it’s only at an early stage. He’s expected not to pitch at all in 2019, regardless, but his rehab progress will dictate whether and when he’s able to function as a DH. Meanwhile, Alex Meyer has suffered a setback in his efforts to make it back from shoulder surgery. For now, he’ll rest for four to six weeks before attempting to resume throwing. It has been more than a year since Meyer went under the knife to repair a torn labrum, so there’s cause to hope that the towering righty will be able to get up to speed and contribute in 2019. Of course, recovery from surgical intervention in that joint is often not a straightforward proposition. The Halos will surely not make any assumptions about his availability for the coming season in making offseason decisions.

Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock Hire Excel Sports Management

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TODAY: Also heading to Excel is outfielder A.J. Pollock, another key piece of the free agency puzzle this winter. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), Pollock is staying with his own agent, Brian Peters, who’s also moving to Excel.

YESTERDAY: Outfielder Michael Brantley has hired Excel Sports Management to represent him in free agency, SB Nation’s Devan Fink recently reported on Twitter. He is moving to Excel from The Legacy Agency along with agent Kenny Felder and some of Felder’s other clients, including George Springer of the Astros and Lewis Brinson of the Marlins.

Of this trio, Brantley’s case is of particular note since he’s now a free agent. He recently reached the open market without having received a qualifying offer, meaning any team can sign him without surrendering draft compensation.

Brantley, 31, spent ten seasons with the Indians. The latter half of his time in Cleveland was played under an extension that included an option for the 2018 season, which the club picked up at $11MM. However, the $17.9MM QO proved too rich for the Indians, even after watching Brantley turn in a nice effort in 2018.

While he’s hardly an eye-popping power threat for a corner outfielder, Brantley is an exceptional contact hitter who is plenty valuable on offense. He finished the 2018 campaign with a .309/.364/.468 slash along with 17 home runs and a dozen steals. Brantley was a tough out, with a 9.5% strikeout rate that only just exceeded his 7.6% walk rate.

Brantley’s new reps will no doubt pitch their client as a high-quality performer with the bat who showed recently that his particular skills haven’t waned. He can also provide some value on the bases, though Brantley isn’t particularly well-regarded defensively and is also somewhat vulnerable to left-handed pitching.

The biggest questions surrounding Brantley, though, don’t involve his quality of play. Rather, they concern his ability to stay on the field. Brantley has endured a series of travails that cast some doubt on his durability, particularly given the cumulative effects. At the same time, he was healthy in 2018 and offers a hitting skillset that isn’t easy to come by. MLBTR recently named him the tenth-best free agent on the market, predicting a three-year, $45MM contract.

Find up-to-date information on player representation in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Orioles are the only team in baseball that lost more games than the Royals in 2018, but the Kansas City organization has suggested it doesn’t plan to embark on a lengthy rebuild featuring multiple years of tanking. Significant improvement, however, remains a tall order for general manager Dayton Moore and his staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll]

Free Agents

The Royals lost an abysmal 104 games in 2018. While it was never expected that they’d contend for a division title, general manager Dayton Moore expressed open disappointment and frustration with his team’s noncompetitive nature — both in the days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline and again, more emphatically, after the conclusion of the season. “I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that’s it’s OK to lose baseball games,” said Moore when speaking to reporters in mid-October. “It’s not. … That’s our responsibility — to win games.”

If Moore’s comments do indeed indicate that he’ll make a concerted effort to make the Royals a more competitive club in 2019, he could be walking a fine line. The Royals are reportedly aiming to cut payroll by as much as $35MM next season after spending at record levels, and that won’t leave Moore with a great deal of flexibility when pursuing upgrades. Much of the payroll cutting can be accomplished organically; the contracts of Hammel, Brandon Moss and Travis Wood are now all off the books, while 2018-19 free agents such as Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda and Jon Jay were moved during the season — most with some degree of salary relief being included in the deal. The Royals, Moore explained in July, deliberately sought players who were MLB-ready or close to it (e.g. Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kelvin Gutierrez) — a further sign that ownership and management don’t want to see another prolonged stretch of futility.

The Royals have also already cut ties with would-be arbitration-eligible players like Nate Karns and Brandon Maurer, further reducing their 2019 payroll projections. At present, between the six guaranteed deals referenced above, the three arb-eligibles remaining and another 14 pre-arbitration players to round out the 25-man roster, Kansas City projects to enter the season with a payroll just north of $90MM. As such, they’re already looking at a savings of roughly $31.5MM over their 2018 Opening Day payroll. That falls within the reported $30-35MM target range, but doesn’t leave for much in the way of free-agent pickups or added salary on the trade market.

That’s not to say, of course, that the Royals are precluded from adding any pieces at all. Perhaps ownership recognizes that it’s simply not possible to add much to this roster, as currently constructed, and keep payroll in the $90MM range. Perhaps the front office will be permitted to apply any savings accrued in last year’s midseason trades toward the 2019 payroll. (The Royals, for instance, saved more than $4MM by trading Herrera to the Nationals in early June.) Kansas City has also habitually backloaded contracts during Moore’s time as GM — often utilizing mutual options with relatively notable buyouts as an accounting measure to effectively defer some of the guaranteed portion of the deal. Moustakas, Hammel, Moss, Wood, Mike Minor, Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, Joakim Soria and Kendrys Morales all had mutual options on their free-agent pacts with the Royals.

It doesn’t seem reasonable to expect that the Royals will add much salary to the books in 2019, but if we see yet another offseason of somewhat creative spending out of Kauffman Stadium, there are a few obvious areas of upgrade — starting with the bullpen. Kansas City, at present, will have Peralta back in a late-inning role after he enjoyed a rebound year, to an extent. The former Brewers starter posted a solid 3.67 ERA and averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also walked 23 batters in 34 1/3 innings. Beyond him, Flynn and Tim Hill are options from the left side while Jesse Hahn, Kevin McCarthy, Burch Smith and Jorge Lopez are options from the right side. With Hahn, Lopez and Flynn all out of minor league options, they’ll need to make the roster in some capacity or be exposed to waivers.

When a bullpen’s most established figure walked more than six batters per nine innings the season prior, there’s obviously plenty in the way of openings. It’d be a surprise to see the Royals spend on top-tier relief arms or even those in the second tier of free agents, but the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium and the allure of guaranteed innings could help draw rebound candidates like David Phelps and Drew Storen (2017 Tommy John surgery) or AJ Ramos and Carson Smith (2018 shoulder surgery). Relievers coming off down seasons (e.g. Tyler Lyons, Justin Wilson) could make some sense, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a backloaded two-year pact for a solid but non-elite reliever coming off a quality season — someone in the Bud Norris vein, perhaps. There’s little reason for the Royals not to be active on the waiver wire and in offering minor league pacts with Spring Training invites, as well.

In the rotation, things look to be more set. Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller (arguably the most successful pick in last year’s Rule 5 Draft) figure to have rotation spots more or less set in stone. Hahn, Lopez, Heath Fillmyer and Trevor Oaks are among the options in the fifth spot. That said, the back of the rotation does present the Royals with the opportunity to promise some innings to rebound candidate with some upside; Drew Pomeranz, Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross could all make some level of sense in that five spot.

As for the more expensive names who are already penciled into rotation slots, it seems rather unlikely that the Royals would move them. Selling low on Duffy, a core piece who a season ago looked like a solid trade chip, would be difficult for the Royals, and it’s unlikely that they’d be able to accomplish that goal without absorbing some of the $46MM remaining on his deal. Financial help would be all the more required to move Kennedy, who has floundered through 52 starts and allowed 54 home runs through 273 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, the lineup is perhaps a bit more set than some would expect. Salvador Perez is entrenched at catcher and unlikely to be traded despite the fact that there’d be interest. Whit Merrifield has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around players in the American League (9.4 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR over the past two seasons), while his double-play partner, Adalberto Mondesi, hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 homers and 32 steals in just 75 games last year. Mondesi badly needs to improve his plate discipline (3.8 percent walk rate, 37.1 percent chase rate, 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate), but he clearly has some pop and isn’t lacking in baserunning or defensive chops. At first base, Ryan O’Hearn emerged late in the season and bludgeoned right-handed pitching at a .313/.403/.705 clip. Some regression is coming, but he could be paired with an affordable righty free-agent pickup late in the season to form a platoon. Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert remain on hand as internal options for that role, but neither has hit in the Majors to date — even in favorable platoon matchups.

Looking to the outfield, Gordon is assured of his spot in left field. While his four-year, $72MM contract has been a flop, Gordon remains a premium defender in left and had his best year at the plate since 2015 this past season. Center field isn’t exactly a certainty, but the organization likely wants to get a further look at rocket-armed Brett Phillips, who opened eyes with three highlight-reel outfield assists in 33 games but hit just .188/.252/.313 in 123 PAs after being acquired for Moustakas. The former top 100 prospect is strikeout-prone but nonetheless brings an exciting skill-set to the outfield. Jorge Bonifacio should see some time in right field, perhaps in a split with left-handed-hitting Brian Goodwin, who can handle all three outfield spots. If that group proves unable to cut it, Merrifield has proven versatile enough to handle some time in the outfield and could shift off second base if prospect Nicky Lopez hits his way to the big leagues.

There’s room for Kansas City to add some depth in the outfield, but they have enough relatively young options that it probably won’t be deemed a priority. Still, given the manner in which some outfielders have been squeezed out in free agency in recent offseasons, if there’s an intriguing veteran available on a one-year deal or on a non-roster invite in February or early March, the Royals could act opportunistically (as they did with Jon Jay last winter).

Beyond a platoon partner for O’Hearn at first base and perhaps a backup to Perez at catcher — Cam Gallagher has not hit much, and depth is thin beyond him — third base is the most apparent spot for the Royals to upgrade. Cuthbert and Dozier, the top internal options, simply have not delivered at the plate in the Majors. Cuthbert has tallied 830 PAs with just a .252/.303/.378 slash to show for his efforts, while Dozier has batted .228/.279/.388 in 409 PAs.

Perhaps it’s too much to expect the same result for a second consecutive season, but the Royals once again seem like a logical landing spot for Moustakas in free agency. With no qualifying offer attached to him this time around and a better defensive showing with his 2016 ACL surgery further behind him, it seems likely that Moose will land a multi-year deal this time around. It’d be easy enough to backload that deal to go easy on the ’19 payroll, especially considering the fact that Gordon’s deal will come off the books in the 2019-20 offseason. If not Moustakas, veterans like Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Asdrubal Cabrera could be options. If the Royals can look beyond his off-the-field issues, perhaps Jung Ho Kang could fit there on a short-term deal as well.

Regardless of the moves made by the Kansas City front office this winter, it’s difficult to see the Royals contending in 2019. Moore has plainly stated that his top priority is to improve the team’s farm system, but he’s coupled that with simultaneous desire to win more games. It’s a dichotomous pair of goals, and in recent baseball history, most teams (particularly, those with lesser resources) have focused on one or the other — either being content to accept some losing years in the short term in exchange for a prolonged run of success or showing a willingness to mortgage some of the future for a chance at immediate glory. The Royals, though, appear as though they’ll strive for some incremental improvements without detracting from the minor league ranks. Even though it’s hard to envision the strategy leading to a 2019 winner, despite a weak division, expect the Royals to add some second- and third-tier free agents to the margins of the roster as they aim to put a miserable 104-loss season behind them.

Cubs Will Not Pursue Offseason Extension With Joe Maddon

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Though Cubs manager Joe Maddon is entering the final season of his contract, the organization will not explore an extension during the offseason to come. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein announced the news, which Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was among those to cover (via Twitter).

Maddon, who was hired just after the end of the 2014 season, has already served four of the five years covered by his initial contract. Now 64 years of age, Maddon has been at the helm for a period of remarkable success. The club has a .597 winning percentage and one World Series title in that span.

That success has not come without whispers of some internal tension, though it’s always hard to know how much stock to put in that kind of talk. For his part, Epstein has made clear that he’s not looking to make a change in the managerial role and has continue to praise Maddon. Still, it’s plenty notable that a new deal won’t come until late in the 2019 season (or thereafter), if at all.

Today Epstein emphasized again that this isn’t a final decision, as Wittenmyer also covers (Twitter links). “We’re not running away from Joe in the least,” he said, “but given that we all have things that we’re working on to get more out of this team and to be one game better than we were last year, this is the appropriate move.”

Interestingly, the top Chicago baseball decisionmaker also made clear that this is a “pivotal year” for the organization as a whole, not just Maddon. “It’s time to produce or else there’s a chance for significant change for the group,” he said, seemingly referring to all levels of the organization including the front office. (Of course, Epstein and his key lieutenants are under contract through 2021.) It’s a bit of a harsh assessment given how well things have gone, but it seems that Epstein (and also, perhaps, his own bosses) are looking to keep expectations high entering an interesting offseason.

Farhan Zaidi “Top Choice” To Run Giants’ Baseball Ops

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At the end of a disappointing 2018 campaign, the Giants decided it was time to shake up the leadership of the baseball operations department. President of baseball operations Brian Sabean will work to find replacements for himself and Bobby Evans, who had held the general manager role. It’s the end of a successful era in San Francisco that culminated in three World Series championships in a five-year span. Whoever takes the reins will be put in charge of one of the game’s most venerable, highest-budget franchises, and tasked with implementing the strategic pitch that wins them the job.

Equal parts opportunity and challenge await a new ops boss. Here’s the latest on the search:

Latest Update — Nov. 5

  • There are increasing indications that the Giants would like to hire Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi. Morosi cites a rival official for the proposition that the San Francisco organization is “prepared to offer a position” to Zaidi, who has worked alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman for the past four seasons. (Twitter link.) An unnamed source tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) that Zaidi is the “top choice” of the Giants’ brass, with Bloom “seen as a fallback.” At this point, though, it remains unclear whether Zaidi is interested in moving over from the rival Dodgers.

Click to review other candidates and prior updates to the Giants’ front office search:

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