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MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest

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UPDATE: The contest is now closed.  We’ll continue working on a leaderboard feature so you can track your progress as players sign.  Thanks for entering!

Back by popular demand, it’s the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry is tonight at 11pm central time!  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • This is something we’ve done dating back to 2011, but we took the last few years off due to technical challenges.  Our readers ask me about it regularly.  Then today I saw that our friends at FanGraphs used Google Forms for a simple free agent contest, and I decided to do the same.
  • In the past, we have created a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  I will attempt to build something like that this winter.  If it succeeds, we’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also use those email addresses to notify you of next year’s free agent prediction contest.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Bryce Harper (#1 ranking) and Adam Ottavino (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Yasmani Grandal (#6) and Charlie Morton (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

Yankees Notes: Gray, A’s, Machado, Relievers, Extensions

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Although the Athletics contacted the Yankees about right-hander Sonny Gray at least a week ago, “there is no present momentum in talks” between the teams, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. A return to Oakland would represent a homecoming of sorts for Gray, a 2011 first-round pick of the A’s who mostly thrived with the club from 2013-17. The A’s dealt Gray to the Yankees in July 2017 for a bounty of prospects, but he has since looked like a poor fit in the Bronx, leading general manager Brian Cashman to concede that “it’s probably best” for the Bombers to move the 29-year-old this winter. Gray’s down to his final season of team control, in which he’ll earn a projected $9.1MM. Even for a low-budget team like Oakland, $9MM-plus for Gray doesn’t look like an unreasonable figure. Gray pitched like a front-end starter away from Yankee Stadium last year, after all, so he could boost an A’s rotation which is clearly in need of help.

More on the Yanks, all of which comes via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

  • Infielder Manny Machado infamously told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic last month that being “Johnny Hustle” isn’t his “cup of tea.” Considering he was then on the brink of a much-anticipated, highly lucrative trip to free agency, Machado’s remarks came at an inopportune time. And now that Machado is on the open market – where he still figures to rake in a historic payday – Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner addressed the superstar’s comments this week, calling them “troubling” and noting that the club would need to discuss them with the 26-year-old as part of a serious pursuit. To this point, though, the Yankees and Machado haven’t set up a meeting, Cashman revealed Thursday. The executive added that the Yankees have used past meetings with free agents to “educate people about who we are and where we want to go and get a feel back if there’s an alignment there, if that player can fit in our culture and our New York environment or not. There’s times I’ve walked away refreshingly, feeling strongly about, ’I’m glad he was so candid because this is not going to be a good fit.'”
  • The Yankees are at risk of losing high-profile relievers David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency, though they have spoken to both hurlers about re-signing, Cashman said. The 33-year-old Robertson, a Rhode Island resident, would like to pitch for a team in the Northeast, according to Cashman.  “Does he want to come back? Yeah, but he said the same thing to me that he said to the public — he’s got to do what is in the best interests of his family,” Cashman said of Robertson, who’s acting as his own agent. “He’s looking for the best deal he can get. He must have already went to agent school; that’s normally the first thing you hear. There must be a playbook.”
  • Free agency and the trade market are likely the primary concerns for the Yankees right now, but they’ll also consider offseason extensions for some of their current players, per Cashman. Three of their top contributors – center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – are each scheduled to become free agents a year from now, but perhaps the Yankees will prevent one or more of them from reaching the market. “Is it something that’s on the list of things to talk to and walk through and get to? Yes,” Cashman stated in regard to potential extensions for the trio. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it’s now or never? Yeah, we have.”

Heyman’s Latest: Mets, Machado, Red Sox, Dodgers, Marlins

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After the Mets hired Brodie Van Wagenen as their new general manager last month, he declared the team expected to be “in on every free agent” this offseason. Van Wagenen’s comment led some to wonder whether the Mets, who could stand to upgrade the left side of their infield, would pursue Manny Machado. However, considering Machado figures to sign for $300MM-plus and the Mets have never even handed out a contract worth half that much, a marriage between the two always looked like a long shot. It appears to be fully out of the question now, as Jon Heyman of Fancred hears that the Mets have decided they’d rather spread their money around to various areas than splurge on Machado. As far as New York’s position player group goes, Heyman lists catcher, second base and center field as spots the team could spend on this winter. As for infielder Wilmer Flores, a non-tender candidate, Heyman notes that the Mets will “likely” tender him at a projected $4.7MM if they’re unable to trade him.

Here’s more from Heyman:

  • The reigning World Series champion Red Sox may soon lose free-agent right-handers Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel, who finished first and second among their relievers in innings last season. With the futures of Kelly and Kimbrel in question, the bullpen is Boston’s primary focus this offseason, according to Heyman. Given that the 30-year-old Kimbrel is in line to sign one of the richest contracts in the history of relievers this winter, he’ll be harder than Kelly to retain. While the Red Sox do have interest in re-signing Kimbrel, per Heyman, he adds that the team “seems adamant about not wanting to go five years” for the highly accomplished closer. Meanwhile, to no one’s surprise, the Sox also hope to re-up free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi. The 28-year-old righty had a terrific run in Boston last season after it acquired him from Tampa Bay in July, and he’s now one of the most appealing starters on the open market.
  • The Dodgers, whom Boston defeated in the World Series, are looking to address the bullpen, the catcher position and possibly second base, Heyman relays. One of Los Angeles’ highest-profile free agents is catcher Yasmani Grandal, who rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers and, according to Heyman, now appears likely to head elsewhere. If Grandal does walk, the Dodgers may end up replacing him with a short-term option, observes Heyman, who notes that two of their top prospects – Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith – are catchers.
  • The Marlins are hoping to add a left-handed hitter via free agency or the trade market, Heyman writes. No team scored fewer runs in 2018 than the Marlins, in part because they slashed a meager .241/.304/.361 (85 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. As of now, they’re slated to feature a righty-heavy lineup next year, with utilityman Derek Dietrich and light-hitting shortstop JT Riddle the only lefty batters on their projected roster.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Quick Hits: Stroman, Goldschmidt, Orioles, Mariners

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The Toronto Blue Jays have not had any serious trade discussions regarding staff ace Marcus Stroman, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That does not mean, however, that teams haven’t asked. The Reds, in particular, are one team with noted interest in the Jays’ right-hander. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the Reds have a well-documented mandate to add pitching this winter. For the Jays, to move Stroman now would definitely be selling low. Coming off back-to-back 200-inning efforts in 2016 and 2017, Stroman labored through only 102 1/3 innings in 2018, with 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 5.54 ERA in nineteen starts. He twice went on the disabled list, including a six-week stint for shoulder fatigue in May. As the winter action continues to wind up, keep warm with some quick hits from around the league…

  • Yesterday’s report that the Diamondbacks were “aggressively shopping” ace Zack Greinke speaks to the current challenge facing Arizona GM Mike Hazen. The greater existential hurdle that Hazen needs to clear this winter is the question of whether to trade star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan portends Hazen’s future through the eyes of two men who have been there before: Pirates GM Neal Huntington and Royals GM Dayton Moore, each of whom faced a similar crisis point for their respective franchises. What makes the Diamondbacks situation unique, of course, is both the quality of their star and the quality of their competition. With current juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers firmly atop the division, and the best farm system in baseball lurking in San Diego, the Diamondbacks have a tough row to hoe no matter which route they take. The consensus “smart baseball move” is to trade him, but there’s more than just baseball to consider in trading a club icon as locally popular as Goldschmidt. No doubt Hazen is staring down the decision that will define his tenure in Arizona. 
  • This Tuesday, November 20th is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft in December. That doesn’t give new Orioles GM Mike Elias a ton of time to acclimate himself to the Orioles’ farm system. While other teams are finalizing the decisions they’ve had months to ponder, Elias will have to hit the ground running with deadline decisions to clean up his 40-man roster. It’s likely the Orioles will make at least one selection in December’s upcoming draft – which requires opening up a spot on the currently-full 40-man roster. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com takes a look at some of the players that could be on the chopping block. Veteran backstop Caleb Joseph is one DFA candidate, as is injury-prone catcher Andrew Susac. It should be noted, Elias has until November 30th to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, giving Elias some extra time to decide on a player like shortstop Tim Beckham. The urgency before Tuesday is in protecting anyone likely to be poached by another organization, such as right-hander Dillon Tate, catcher Martin Cervenka or left-handed pitcher Luis Gonzalez. Tate is the likeliest of the bunch to be protected, as the Orioles probably won’t want to risk losing the 24-year-old just a few months after acquiring him from the Yankees in the Zach Britton trade.
  • Seattle team chairman and CEO John Stanton sent an email to Mariners’ employees on Friday regarding the recent allegations brought against the team by former employee Dr. Lorena Martin, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In the letter, Stanton calls the allegations “disturbing” and “totally unexpected,” while also claiming progress “in reshaping our organization’s culture.” Nevertheless, an internal investigation conducted by the team’s human resources and legal departments determined Martin’s allegations to be unfounded. The MLB is conducting their own investigation into the matter, which is still pending.

Astros Acquire Aledmys Diaz

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The Astros acquired infielder Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays, as per announcements from both teams. In return, Triple-A right-hander Trent Thornton is headed to Toronto, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter).

After spending parts of two seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, the Blue Jays acquired Diaz for minor-league outfielder J.B. Woodman prior to 2018. He is a career .275/.325/.458 hitter – good for a slightly above-average 108 wRC+. Diaz saw regular action in Toronto this season, slashing .263/.303/.453 with 18 home runs (1.6 fWAR) while keeping the seat warm for prospects Richard Urena and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Though primarily a shortstop, the Astros likely see Diaz, 28, as a more versatile contributor – potential insurance for likely-departed utility man Marwin Gonzalez. Defensive metrics, however, do not look kindly upon Diaz’s performance at short (-9 DRS, -2.2 UZR in 2018), as he has yet to record a positive rating in either defensive runs saved or ultimate zone rating in his three seasons at the big-league level. Yuli Gurriel stands to take on some of the extra responsibilities around the diamond as well, but Diaz represents a low-cost alternative – he will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season at the earliest.

Brian McTaggart of MLB.com quotes Astros GM Jeff Luhnow (via Twitter), who says of Diaz:

“He’s got some versatility, got some power and can do a lot of things. It seems like it’s an opportunity for us to improve our team. We’re dipping into prospect depth, but one area we probably have some surplus, it’s in the upper-level pitching area.”

The Blue Jays stand to benefit from that surplus with the acquisition of Thornton. Though not a top prospect by any means, the 25-year-old Thornton ranked 24th on MLB.com’s midseason rankings of Houston’s farm system. Since the Astros selected him in the 5th round of the 2015 draft, Thornton has steadily climbed the ranks of Houston’s minor league system, reaching their top affiliate in 2017. Over 124 1/3 innings, he had a 4.42 ERA (3.93 xFIP) with 8.83 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9 while pitching with Triple-A Fresno for the entirety of 2018.

With either Urena or Gurriel ready to take over at short, the Blue Jays did a nice job here of turning their middle infield depth into an MLB-ready arm. Thornton has not yet appeared in the majors, though the Jays will add him to their 40-man roster, per Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). The rebuilding Blue Jays get all six years of Thornton’s team control in exchange for four years of Diaz.

Coaching Notes: Rangers, Twins, Rockies, Jays, Phillies

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Many teams are putting the finishing touches on their coaching staffs, though there are still some openings. Here are the latest moves:

  • The Rangers announced that they have hired Julio Rangel as their new pitching coach. He’ll come over from the Giants organization, where he had served as the minor-league pitching coordinator. The 43-year-old Rangel also spent 11 years in the Indians system but has never previously worked at the MLB level as a player or coach.
  • Rounding out their staff under new skipper Rocco Baldelli, the Twins announced the additions of third-base coach Tony Diaz and first-base coach Tommy Watkins. The 31-year-old Diaz comes over from the Rockies, while Watkins is moving up from a minor-league managerial role in the Minnesota system. Yesterday, the club finalized deals with its coaches dedicated to pitching.
  • Also departing the Rockies will be hitting coach Duane Espy, the club announced. It’s not clear what the team’s plans are in this area. For the time being, at least, assistant hitting coach Jeff Salazar is evidently remaining in his role.
  • The Blue Jays will hire Guillermo Martinez to become their new hitting coach, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports. Martinez is just 34 years of age, but obviously made quite an impression in his first year as minor-league hitting coordinator in Toronto. He played professionally but never reached the majors. Previously, Martinez coached in the minors with the Jays and Cubs.
  • To complete their staff, the Phillies announced, they’ll install Dave Lundquist as assistant pitching coach. He was most recently the organization’s Triple-A pitching coach, so this was a natural profession. The former big leaguer has worked his way up the chain in the Philadelphia organization since landing there in 2008.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Padres’ were in full rebuild mode by mid-2016, having dealt away any veteran players with value by that year’s trade deadline. Immediate help was not on the way. In fact, it was nowhere close if it even existed. General manager A.J. Preller was going to have his opportunity to build his team from the ground up. Two-and-a-half years later, the Padres have, arguably, the best farm system in baseball and are looking to become legitimate playoff contenders in the next year or two.

Preller is now tasked with putting together a Major League roster that can at least break .500 in 2019 while staying in contention past July 31st. That would be a major step forward for a franchise that has not had a winning season since 2010. The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies, who improved by 14 games from the previous season and didn’t fall out of the pennant race until mid-September, would be a good comparison for what success would look like at the minimum. Matching what the Atlanta Braves did—an 18-game improvement and division championship—would be quite a bit more challenging and represents something like the best-case scenario. Preller’s offseason, which should be very eventful, will have a major effect on whether the team can become a perennial playoff contender and how quickly they can get there.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[San Diego Padres depth chart | San Diego Padres payroll outlook]

With the waves of young and inexpensive talent expected to arrive in San Diego over the next few seasons, the Padres should have the ability to add multiple impact players with high price tags in preparation for their next playoff run. Eric Hosmer, signed last offseason, was the first significant piece. Adding a frontline starting pitcher and either a third baseman or shortstop prior to the 2020 season would appear to be the next big priorities. It’s possible that they will check one or both off of the list as early as the current offseason.

Preller’s first line of business, however, could be to determine how to best sort out the crowded outfield situation. With only Wil Myers guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster — barring a trade, at least — and everyone else having Minor League options, it doesn’t have to be that complicated. But, assuming that Myers’ third base experiment is over, the Padres have six outfielders and not one of them belongs in Triple-A.

It could take some creativity on Preller’s part, but Myers is certainly a trade candidate. Although he’s due to make just $3MM in 2019, he’ll make $20MM annually over the next three seasons. That normally wouldn’t be a lot for a former Rookie of the Year who averaged 29 homers and 24 stolen bases in his ages 25-26 seasons, can play multiple positions and is still only 27 years old. But he’s been injury-plagued throughout his career and his overall numbers have been underwhelming for a player who fits best at a corner outfield spot.

Hunter Renfroe (.805 OPS, 15.5 AB/HR) and Franmil Reyes (.838 OPS, 16.3 AB/HR) were each particularly impressive in 2018, making them attractive trade targets for a team hoping to add some legitimate right-handed power to their lineup. Travis Jankowski could be a useful reserve and should draw some interest. Manuel Margot and Franchy Cordero, on the other hand, are much less likely to be traded. Margot’s value is down after he struggled in 2018 and he’s too talented for the Padres to sell low on him. The left-handed hitting Cordero missed most of last season due to an elbow injury, keeping him somewhat of an unknown commodity. But, in any case, the Padres will want to hold on to a 24-year-old with 30 home run and 30 stolen base potential.

Hosmer was a disappointment in his first season with the club, but maybe it shouldn’t have been all that unexpected. After a solid rookie season in 2011, he had his worst season as a pro in 2012. He bounced back in 2013 before struggling again in 2014. He had a very good 2015 season, which ended with a World Series championship. His numbers dipped slightly in 2016 and then he was at his best in 2017 (.882 OPS, 25 HR). Not that the Padres were expecting eight years of the 2017 version, but it’s safe to say that he wasn’t nearly as productive as they had hoped in his debut. It’s probable that he’ll continue to be up and down as he was with the Royals while delivering a couple of higher-output seasons somewhere in between.

Other than Hosmer at first base, catcher Austin Hedges is the only other position player who is all but assured to be in the Padres’ Opening Day starting lineup. Acquiring the best catching prospect in baseball, Francisco Mejia, last July has done nothing to change that. Hedges’ defense and leadership ability are much too valuable for a team that will continue to rely so much on young pitching. If the Padres believe that the 23-year-old Mejia is ready for the Majors in 2019, it could make sense to pair him with Hedges, who could be a strong mentor despite his age (26) and lack of MLB experience (2.166 days). Both players have a long ways to go to prove themselves offensively at the MLB level, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that the duo could combine for over 25 homers per season. Of course, Mejia could also be a valuable trade chip and could headline a major deal this offseason. He could also spend some more time in Triple-A. In either of those cases, the Padres would have to bring in a veteran backup to give Hedges an occasional day off. Free agent A.J. Ellis was terrific in that role last season.

While Reyes made plenty of noise during his rookie season, his contributions were somewhat of a surprise. Luis Urias’ debut in late August, however, marked the arrival of one of the organization’s highest-profile prospects. The 21-year-old had a handful of big games, but didn’t have much time to establish himself before a season-ending hamstring injury. Expected to be the team’s second baseman for years to come once he arrived in the Majors, Urias could temporarily slide over to shortstop depending on how things go this offseason.

With top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. closing in on the Majors, the expectation is that the Padres will either add a stop-gap or long-term solution at shortstop or third base. If shortstop is not addressed, Urias could play there until Tatis is ready to step in. If the Padres add a long-term solution at the position, Urias would stay at second base and Tatis would prepare to be the team’s third baseman of the near future. Other players who could figure into the mix in some way or another are Christian Villanueva, who crushed left-handed pitching in 2018 (1.118 OPS, 14 HR) but was awful versus right-handers, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela and Cory Spangenberg. The latter trio is on the bubble to remain on the 40-man roster.

Free agent targets at third base could include another former Royals star, Mike Moustakas, or veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Josh Harrison and Jed Lowrie. Only the 30-year-old Moustakas would appear to fit the team as a potential long-term solution if the Padres were willing to offer him a contract for at least three or four years. A run at Donaldson, whether on a pillow contract or multi-year deal, could be an interesting high-upside possibility if the Padres decide to make a push.

With multiple big-market teams expected to be involved in the bidding, Manny Machado is probably a long shot. But if last offseason was any indication, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Padres got involved on some level. As was the case with Hosmer, they could make a competitive offer early on and then wait for him to circle back if he doesn’t receive a better one. Unless Machado’s stock has dropped dramatically, though, that is not likely to happen.

Of the free agent shortstops, none other than Machado would be expected to sign for more than one or two seasons. Freddy Galvis, who the team raved about during his lone season in San Diego, could return on an affordable multi-year deal with the expectation that he’d move into a utility role once Tatis reached the Majors. Alcides Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jose Iglesias and Jordy Mercer are stop-gap options who would likely cost much less than the $6.8MM that Galvis earned in 2018.

If the Padres are to make a splash this offseason, it would most likely come via trade. Their farm system is good enough to get most any player that is available. Would Cleveland trade Jose Ramirez? Probably not this offseason. Even if they end up trading one of their best pitchers, the Indians are still the class of the AL Central. Eugenio Suarez would be a great fit at the hot corner, but the Reds are also looking to take the next step forward in their rebuild and wouldn’t want to trade one of their best hitters unless the return was not only compelling, but including some quality MLB assets. A three-team scenario involving Miguel Andujar of the Yankees is perhaps not unimaginable. (It’d be complicated, but so was the swap that brought Myers to San Diego.)

One very controversial option would be a buy-low acquisition of Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, who will miss the first month of the season while serving out a 40-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. Last month’s release of lefty reliever Jose Torres, however, could be an indication that the Padres aren’t interested in a player with that kind of baggage. After a strong rookie season in 2017 (4.21 ERA, 8.3 K/9 in 62 appearances), Torres spent 2018 on the Restricted list while serving a 100-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. Instead of reinstating him after the season, he was designated for assignment and subsequently released.

Mariners shortstop Jean Segura and third baseman Kyle Seager could be available and either would seem to fit the Padres’ need on the left side of the diamond. Segura’s price tag would be high—not a problem if the Padres like him enough to take on his almost $15MM per year salary for his ages 29-32 seasons—and Seager is still owed around $60MM through 2021 and coming off of a bad season. Using the Myers contract to facilitate a deal is at least an interesting possibility to contemplate. J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco, and Jurickson Profar probably aren’t the huge difference-makers that the Padres are looking for, but they might be likelier to be available in a trade.

Stay tuned. Things could get very interesting if Preller is focused on the trade market to upgrade his lineup.

Despite having a wealth of pitching prospects who are set to reach the Majors sometime in the next year or two, the starting rotation is clearly the weakest link on this roster. Adding a frontline starter to pair with veteran workhorse Clayton Richard would take a great deal of weight off of the young pitchers who are still getting their feet wet or who will be debuting in 2019. Joey Lucchesi was impressive as a rookie, posting a 4.08 ERA, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 26 starts. After a rough stretch to begin his MLB career, Eric Lauer had a 3.16 ERA over his last 16 starts. That lefty duo should have a leg up on the competition, while Robbie Erlin, Bryan Mitchell, Jacob Nix and Luis Perdomo are among the arms who could compete for one of the last rotation spots. Brett Kennedy, Walker Lockett and Colin Rea will also be in the mix if they’re still on the 40-man roster when Spring Training begins.

Mitchell pitched so poorly in 2018 that he was demoted to the bullpen after seven starts before spending three months on the disabled list. He probably saved his roster spot in September with a 2.19 ERA in four starts, including 8.2 shutout innings in his final appearance. That type of performance was likely closer to what Preller had in mind when he took on Chase Headley’s $13MM salary in order to acquire Mitchell from the Yankees last offseason. It’s unlikely that Preller would want to give up on him so soon after making such a big investment.

A wildcard for the rotation will be Matt Strahm, who now has two very good seasons under his belt as a relief pitcher. With the growing importance of the multi-inning setup man role, the 27-year-old might have already found his niche. But it would be worth stretching him out this spring and giving him a decent chance to prove that he can be an effective starting pitcher.

The next wave of prospects, while unlikely to make an impact in April or May, could make things interesting at some point during the season. After sitting out the 2017 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack returned to health and quickly proved to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He only has seven Double-A starts under his belt, but he’s not that far away. In 177.2 career innings in the Minors, the 22-year-old has a 1.82 ERA with an unfathomable 20 walks and 230 strikeouts. Logan Allen, the Texas League Pitcher of the Year, and former 1st Round pick Cal Quantrill should also reach San Diego in 2019. They won’t be the only potential reinforcements during the season. Dinelson Lamet, one of the few bright spots from the 2017 season, is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be back in the second half.

While there are several free agent starting pitchers who could help in the short-term, including former Padres Trevor Cahill and Tyson Ross, and a few others who could make sense on a multi-year deal — Gio Gonzalez, for instance — the expectation is that the Padres will set their sights very high in their pursuit of a frontline starter who can anchor their rotation for several years. Noah Syndergaard would be quite a catch, but he’s also the kind of superstar acquisition that would take multiple elite prospects to get (if the Mets are even interested in that kind of package). Would giving up Paddack, Tatis and more in a deal for three years of Syndergaard be worth it? With how often pitchers get hurt, that could turn out to be a disaster. Corey Kluber, a 4th Round pick of the Padres back in 2007, and Danny Duffy could also be on their wish list. A Zack Greinke acquisition wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospect talent if there were willing to take on a big chunk of the $95.5MM that he’s still owed through 2021.

There are also quite a few pitchers with two years of control who might be had via trade, including Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton and a rebound candidate in Julio Teheran. Preller would surely be somewhat more hesitant to give big pieces for that length of control, though of course less years also means a lower price tag (though each of these hurlers also earns at a manageable rate of pay). A pitcher of that ilk could help carry the team until another crop of pitching prospects — Michel Baez, Anderson Espinoza, MacKenzie Gore and Adrian Morejon are a big reason why their farm system is so widely-respected — is ready to step in.

Regardless of how much they can upgrade their rotation, they can always opt to lean a bit more on their bullpen if necessary. Teams like the A’s and Brewers proved in 2018 that you don’t need starting pitchers who can consistently work deep into games if the bullpen can consistently pick up the slack. It’s no surprise that the Padres’ bullpen was very good in 2018. Despite having ten sub-.500 seasons since the move to Petco Park in 2004, they’ve never cracked the 100-loss barrier. And that’s mostly due to a solid bullpen that keeps things from going completely off of the rails. Even without Brad Hand, who was traded to Cleveland in July, they are still in decent shape with closer Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Strahm (if he isn’t in the rotation), and a long list of hard-throwing pitchers with late-inning potential.

Strahm isn’t as dominant as Brewers’ bullpen star Josh Hader, but the left-hander proved that he can be very good in a similar high-leverage, multi-inning role. Jose Castillo and Robert Stock both passed their rookie auditions with flying colors, as did Trey Wingenter, though in a much smaller sample size. Stock and Wingenter each hit 100 MPH on multiple occasions and they aren’t the the only Padres’ pitchers who can bring that kind of heat. Former Rule 5 pick Miguel Diaz, 19-year-old Andres Munoz and Gerardo Reyes, all capable of hitting triple digits, could spend time in the Majors during the upcoming season.

There appears to be plenty of good relief options, but they’ve had so much success resurrecting careers that it would be a surprise if they didn’t add at least one veteran bounce-back candidate with late-inning experience. Former Nationals closer Drew Storen, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, is one of several relievers who will be looking for a chance to rebuild value in a pitcher-friendly atmosphere.

Phillies Anticipate Major Spending, Says Owner John Middleton

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The Phillies entered the winter widely tabbed as the most obvious aggressor on the free-agent market. It has been known for years, after all, that the organization was stripping its payroll and building its prospect base in hopes of launching back into a powerhouse.

Perhaps, then, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Philadelphia owner John Middleton was so willing to acknowledge the obvious. But he did so, with unusual candor, in an interview with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. As Middleton put it:

“We’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Whether those surprisingly forthcoming words portend a true spending bonanza isn’t quite clear. But they surely suggest that the Phillies aren’t afraid of a bidding war and are open — willing, even — to go a bit outside their comfort zone to win one, at least for the right player.

This long-anticipated free-agent class may not quite have arrived with the expected hype, but it’s still laden with opportunities. And the Phils have both the need and the means to chase the market’s biggest names: Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, of course, but also perhaps quality players such as Patrick Corbin, Craig Kimbrel, and Yasmani Grandal.

Click here for a detailed analysis of the Phillies’ payroll availability.

As Middleton rightly assesses, the Phillies clearly have “lots of ways to go to improve” a roster that has some valuable assets but relatively little in the way of established stars. That only makes things more interesting. Big-name acquisitions would likely also be followed by trades of current Philadelphia players, increasing the intrigue and ramping up the overall market entropy.

Clearly, it’s a high-stakes winter for a ballclub that sees an opportunity to make major strides. With Middleton expressing excitement at the prospect of unleashing the organization’s financial might, there’s every reason to believe that the Phillies will function as a market driver.

Angels To Sign Peter Bourjos

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The Angels have struck a deal to bring outfielder Peter Bourjos back to the organization, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports on Twitter. It’ll be a minor-league pact for the 31-year-old, who is a client of the Dishman Sports Group.

Bourjos has seen action in each of the past nine MLB campaigns, the first four of those coming in Los Angeles. He has yet to produce anything approaching his exciting 2011 season, when he posted a .271/.327/.438 slash with a dozen homers and 22 steals while playing excellent center field defense for the Halos.

More recently, Bourjos has functioned in a part-time role. He still appeared in over 100 games annually in each of the four seasons following his departure from the Angels, but hasn’t shown much at the plate and struggled to gain opportunities in 2018. All told, Bourjos carries only a .229/.286/.366 with other organizations.

Bourjos did post strong numbers last year against Triple-A pitching with the Giants and Braves organizations. And he’ll figure to have at least a shot at earning a big-league job out of camp — at least, that is, supposing the Halos don’t make any other signings in the interim. The club is in need of a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder to share some time with Kole Calhoun.

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