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Angels Acquire Dillon Peters From Marlins

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3:30pm: The two teams have announced the swap of Peters and Stevens. Peter will go on the Halos’ 40-man roster, while Stevens will not be added to Miami’s 40-man roster.

2:15pm: The Angels are putting the finishing touches on a trade with the Marlins that will send lefty Dillon Peters to Los Angeles, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). Righty Tyler Stevens is set to move to Miami in return.

If completed, the swap would send Peters onto the Halos’ 40-man roster. He was designated for assignment by Miami yesterday as the team looked to set its 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Though the 26-year-old has not found any success in his two attempts at the majors, he was viewed as one of the organization’s more promising arms at this time last year and considered to be a mostly MLB-ready starter. To this point, Peters has only worked as a starter, though as Fletcher notes, he experienced a velocity boost in 2018, so perhaps he’ll be given a shot to transition into a relief role.

As for the 22-year-old Stephens, he reached the Triple-A level in his second season as a pro after opening the year with excellent numbers at High-A and Double-A. But the right-handed reliever was drubbed at the highest level of the minors, surrendering 34 earned runs on 58 hits in just 28 frames — though he did still maintain a respectable combination of 11.6 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. Stevens is still rather young for that level and was a quick riser through the Angels’ system last year, so he’ll hope for better results with some additional experience under his belt in a second run at the Triple-A level.

Projecting Payrolls: Atlanta Braves

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As we kick off the fourth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we’re heading back to the National League East to examine the payroll situation of a burgeoning juggernaut: the Atlanta Braves.

Team Leadership

While most baseball franchises are now owned by families or groups of them, the Braves have been owned by corporate entities since 1996. Time Warner purchased the club, along with TBS, from Ted Turner and Turner Broadcasting in 1996, then sold the club in 2007 to Liberty Media Corp., the current owner, as part of a convoluted transaction involving billions of dollars worth of assets. The human face of ownership is that of chairman Terry McGuirk, a lifer at Time Warner.

The baseball operations department is headed by executive vice president and chairman Alex Anthopoulos. After serving as general manager of the Blue Jays from 2010-15, Anthopoulos turned down a five-year extension from the club to remain in his current role, instead spending two years as a vice president with the Dodgers. The arrival of new president Mark Shapiro reportedly played a significant role in his decision to leave Toronto. In the end, Anthopoulos found his way to a superior situation, taking over the Braves front office just over one year ago and inheriting a loaded farm system outside of the rigors of the wildly competitive American League East.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Braves, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Using this time frame for the Braves captures the end of Turner’s ownership period, a spending downfall from the peak of $106.2 million in 2003. Braves spending was remarkably consistent from 2005-16 before a notable jump in 2017. Here is what the Braves have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

After spending like a top-10 club for much of Turner’s ownership, the Braves have spent like a mid-market team throughout Liberty’s ownership, never ranking higher than 13th or lower than 22nd in end-of-season payroll.

Atlanta’s spending hasn’t been limited to Major League talent by any stretch. In fact, their penchant for swimming in the international amateur market got them into deep trouble and helped propel Anthopoulos to the general manager’s job. The Braves infamously split the signing bonuses paid to top amateurs between the the elite prospects and lesser “foreign professionals” for whom bonuses were exempt from international signing restrictions. This enabled the team to funnel additional money to top amateurs without being forced to incur stringent tax liabilities. Unfortunately for the club, when their deceit was uncovered by Major League Baseball, it resulted in the exodus of many top amateurs, including elite target Kevin Maitan, and much of the club’s leadership, including president John Hart and general manager John Coppolella. The Braves will be significantly restricted from signing expensive international amateurs in the next two summers, so they’ll paradoxically have more cash available for spending on Major League talent should they choose to allocate the unspent funds in that way.

Future Liabilities

The Braves have truly remarkably little on the books in terms of long-term commitments. Organizational stalwart Freddie Freeman has three years remaining on his deal and defensive wizard Ender Inciarte has three years plus an inexpensive club option for a fourth. That’s it for guaranteed money beyond 2019…at least, that’s it for current players. Here is a look at their future guarantees with the peach highlight indicative of 2020 club options for Julio Teheran and Tyler Flowers.  Note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The top portion of this chart is relatively straightforward: the Braves have long-term commitments for Freeman and Inciarte and one-year commitments for Teheran, O’Day, and Flowers, unless they want more for Teheran or Flowers via the options.

The bottom portion? The bottom portion carries the intrigue. We’ll start with O’Day, the simpler case study. When the Braves acquired starter Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline, they also agreed to absorb the remaining contract for injured reliever Darren O’Day as a means of limiting the talent package they sent to Baltimore (this should make Braves fans happy and Orioles fans sad). O’Day’s contract called for $1 million each year from 2016-19 to be deferred, payable in equal installments from 2020-23. Perhaps as a sign of how desperate the Orioles were to move payroll, the Braves agreed to absorb the deferred obligations owed to O’Day, even those incurred from money deferred in earlier seasons. As a result, the Braves owe O’Day $1 million for each year of O’Day’s contract, including the time he spent in Baltimore in 2016, 2017, and 2018.

Sutter is an entirely different matter. The Braves signed Sutter to a six-year, $9.1 million deal prior to the 1985 season when Sutter was coming off of a top-10 finish in Most Valuable Player voting having just completed a return to star status after a couple of rocky seasons. With Atlanta, Sutter produced a whopping 0 WAR while sputtering out after three seasons. However, that’s not the source of intrigue. That comes from the extremely unique structure of Sutter’s contract which called for minimal annual payments and massive deferrals, paying Sutter $1.12 million per year for 30 years after he retired. Mercifully for the Braves, Sutter will collect his final annual payment in 2021. Unmercifully for the Braves, Sutter collects the entire $9.1 million principal that year as well. His $10.22 million payment in 2021 may very well rival Mike Foltynewicz for the second largest payout on the team. If the Braves already have Sutter’s balloon payment tucked away and ready for payment in 2021, this is merely a goofy historical anecdote. If, however, the Braves need to come up with the balloon payment, it may have a meaningful impact on the 2021 roster and the team’s willingness to commit future dollars this offseason.

With Sutter out of the way, let’s move to the arbitration projections. Outfielder Adam Duvall and reliever Sam Freeman both appear to be non-tender candidates, but for now, both are included below (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

Gausman, Foltynewicz, and Vizcaino all figure to occupy significant chunks of payroll, but all three pitchers are important to the 2019 Braves, so they provide nice value to the contending team.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Anthopoulos was surprisingly forthcoming when discussing Atlanta’s spending plans, telling reporters, “We will have a good amount of money to work with.” This likely doesn’t surprise anyone. The Braves have been a picture of consistency with their spending over the past decade, so it would be stunning to see payroll plummet or explode this offseason.

However, the color that Anthopoulos added to his basic comment provides significantly greater insight: “We’re not going to just walk in the store and buy because we have money in our pockets. If we don’t find the right deal with something we like, there’s still other opportunities to shop. There could be opportunities next season. If you start signing guys to big, long deals, if you feel good about the deal, you do it now. I wouldn’t force a deal right now that would limit you in years from now. I don’t think with our club, with what we have, that the value is going to be there in the free-agent market. It doesn’t mean it won’t. We’ll certainly explore it. But if I could sit here in the middle of October, I’d say it’s more likely we go the trade route. It’s not ideal to give up young assets, but it’s also not ideal to do a deal you don’t believe in — that may look good for a year or two, and then in years three, four and five, it does not.”

Are the Braves a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

It’s entirely possible that some of the above was merely posturing on the part of Anthopoulos as the Braves prepare a foray into the depths of free agency. But given the club’s hesitance to spend at top-of-the-market rates in the past, I would expect that Atlanta’s free agent targets won’t reach the Harper/Machado tier.

However, that said, Atlanta’s salary flexibility and ludicrous hoard of prospect arms ready to fill the Major League rotation for the next half decade or longer mean that the Braves can afford to take a massive swing and miss without crippling the franchise for years. So few teams have such a luxury. As a result, they should be considered a sneaky contender to spend big dollars, especially for Harper as the Braves would likely love to put him in the outfield with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Inciarte. Machado makes a bit less sense given the presence of Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, and well-rounded top prospect Austin Riley, but the money is there. There’s just a chasm of disconnect between the figures on paper and the words of the general manager.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

The Braves’ payroll has been quite consistent over the years, and given their historical trajectory and current revenue streams, I’d expect for them to at least comfortably plod along with methodical increases. That might mean something like $130 million in 2019.

However, last year’s club blew open the competitive window. As a result, I foresee a slightly larger increase this year than expected. As a result, they’re likely going to make a significant expensive addition or two. A reunion with Craig Kimbrel makes an awful lot of sense.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $135 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $50.6 million

Yankees Acquire Tim Locastro

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The Yankees have acquired infielder/outfielder Tim Locastro from the Dodgers, per a club announcement. Righty Drew Finley and cash considerations will head to Los Angeles in return.

Locastro was dropped from the L.A. 40-man yesterday, among many other moves. He has experience all over the diamond, with most of his time in the minors coming at second base and shortstop, but was announced by the Yanks as an outfielder.

It seems his likeliest fit, though, is as a pure utility piece; perhaps he’ll have a shot at competing with Ronald Torreyes (assuming he’s tendered), Hanser Alberto, and any other potential contenders to take up a reserve role. It’s not hard to see why the Yankees had interest, given that broad defensive background combined with Locastro’s generally productive numbers at the plate in the upper minors. He’s a .283/.354/.401 hitter through 626 Double-A plate appearances and has turned in an eyebrow-raising .307/.402/.443 slash in his 471 trips to the dish at the game’s highest level.

Finley, a 22-year-old righty, has yet to move past the low A level despite three attempts. In 120 innings as a professional over four seasons, he carries an unsightly 5.48 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. That said, Finley was a third-round pick back in 2015, and it could well be that the Dodgers still think there’s some talent to be unlocked.

Orioles Sign Jace Peterson, Three Others

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1:15pm: Baltimore has announced the signing of Peterson as well as those of three other players. Infielders Christopher Bostick and Zach Vincej will join the utility competition, with righty Jeffeson Medina also coming to the organization on a minors pact.

Bostick and Vincej have each briefly cracked the majors in each of the past two seasons and could certainly challenge Peterson and others for a job (or a spot on the depth chart). Medina, meanwhile, has yet to play past the High-A level but has turned in an intriguing showing thus far (one earned run in 14 innings) in the Venezuelan Winter League.

9:17am: The Orioles have reached a deal to bring back infielder Jace Peterson, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). It’s a minor-league deal, the other terms of which are not known. He had elected free agency after being outrighted by the O’s at the end of the 2018 campaign.

Peterson, 28, has historically lined up mostly at second base. But he has expanded his repertoire in recent seasons, logging significant innings in the corner outfield and at third base while briefly stepping in at both shortstop and first.

Unfortunately, the results at the plate haven’t really changed. Peterson ended his 2018 campaign with 246 plate appearances of 78 OPS+ hitting, an exact match for the rate of production — 22% below the league mean — he has maintained through 1,524 trips to the dish over his five-year career.

The O’s surely don’t yet have a clear idea of how their reserve unit will shape up, and the picture will no doubt change as opportunities arise over the offseason. That said, Peterson figures to have a strong chance at earning a job in camp.

Leonys Martin, Danny Farquhar Receive Medical Clearances

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Leonys Martin and Danny Farquhar both endured rather terrifying medical situations during the 2018 season. It’s incredibly promising, then, to see both receive clearances that will allow them to try to make it back to the big leagues.

Martin, who was sidelined by a bacterial infection, is now able to participate in “full offseason strength and conditioning activity,” as MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince was among those to tweet. Of course, we had already been given some reason to suspect that good news was coming on his availability for the season to come, as the club agreed with him on a $3MM (non-guaranteed) arbitration salary.

That’s also good news from a baseball standpoint for the Indians, who had acquired Martin to help out down the stretch in 2018 and into the future. As things stand, the 30-year-old is perhaps the clearest piece of the outfield picture for a Cleveland organization that is facing quite a lot of uncertainty in that area.

As for Farquhar, James Fegan of The Athletic writes (subscription link) that the right-hander has, rather remarkably, been cleared to resume his career. That was the furthest thing from anyone’s mind when Farquhar collapsed with a brain aneurysm. Here, too, the news is not entirely unexpected. Farquhar has been working out for some time and is obviously chomping at the bit, as he tells Fegan he even held out hopes of making it back late in 2018. Instead, Farquhar had to wait for his skull to heal fully.

From a pure baseball perspective, Farquhar’s future is more up in the air than is Martin’s. The reliever is a free agent and will likely be looking for a minor-league pact and a new opportunity, which certainly could come again with the White Sox. Farquhar is still just 31, has had significant success at times in the past, and has had little trouble generating swings and misses in the majors, so he’ll surely be pursued by multiple organizations.

Mets “Seriously Considering” Noah Syndergaard Trade Scenarios

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The Mets are “seriously considering” trade scenarios for high-end righty Noah Syndergaard, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Per the report, at least six rival organizations are “real players” for the high-octane starter.

This is certainly an interesting development. There have been whispers of a possible deal involving Syndergaard, but the seriousness of the Mets’ intentions have remained in doubt. Now, it seems there’s reason at least for other organizations to dedicate resources to exploring deals.

Importantly, Heyman notes that the key for the Mets in any potential deal would be to “fill multiple holes with real impact.” That suggests, unsurprisingly, that new GM Brodie Van Wagenen will not be looking for lower-level prospects. And it also seems to indicate that there’s a rather high asking price for one of the game’s most talented hurlers.

As presently constructed, the Mets roster is built around a potentially outstanding group of starters — much as it has been for the past several seasons. That has not always worked out in practice, with health problems in particular posing a barrier.

With Zack Wheeler reemerging, and the market largely devoid of compelling arms, it seems the Mets may see an opportunity to get value for Syndergaard. Of course, that’d mean parting with one of the team’s clear elite talents while creating an opening in the pitching staff — one that would presumably be filled by Seth Lugo and/or Robert Gsellman, who could both compete with Jason Vargas to round out the rotation. It’s interesting that the Mets seem inclined to keep Wheeler, who’s a rental hurler that would also be of keen interest to the broader market.

The key question is whether the Mets will manage to get enough in return to make it worth their while. At his best, Syndergaard is on a short list of the game’s most dominant starters. Even in a relatively down 2018, he contributed 154 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA pitching. Of course, injuries limited him last year and robbed him of much of the prior campaign. But Syndergaard also only just turned 26, projects to earn an easy-to-manage $5.9MM salary in arbitration, and comes with two more seasons of club control.

It stands to reason that the Mets would seek to land assets with at least some amount of control, rather than pure rentals, but also that they’d prefer players that have established themselves to some extent in the major leagues. It’s possible to imagine the club being intrigued by additions behind the plate, in center field, or just about anywhere in the infield. The bullpen is a clear need as well, though it’s tough to see a reliever driving a deal.

Making a volume deal that brings adequate will obviously be tough to swing. Teams with interest in giving up a big talent haul for three years of Syndergaard will, presumably, be interested in near-term contention. Those same organizations are, then, unlikely to be particularly keen to part with the pieces that would most interest the Mets. It’s certainly possible, then, that some kind of three-team arrangement could make the most sense, with the hypothetical team acquiring Syndergaard sending prospect assets to an intermediary that would in turn give the Mets what they seek. Potential permutations abound, making for an interesting thought experiment but also leaving it difficult to make anything approaching a reasonable prediction of the outcome.

Rays Hire Rodney Linares As Third-Base Coach

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The Rays announced today that they have hired Rodney Linares as their third-base coach. He’ll step in for Matt Quatraro, who slid over to bench coach when Charlie Montoyo left to become the new Blue Jays manager.

With the move, Linares will conclude a lengthy tenure with the Astros organization. Long a presence in the Houston organization’s minor-league system, he functioned as the Triple-A skipper in 2018 but has not yet served on a MLB staff.

It appears that Linares will still be accompanied by one other new addition to the staff of skipper Kevin Cash. With Rocco Baldelli also departing to take the helm of a new club, in his case the Twins, there’s still another opening.

Pitching Coach Jim Hickey Leaves Cubs

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The Cubs announced last night that pitching coach Jim Hickey will be departing the organization. Per the team, he advised the club that he was moving on due to “personal reasons.”

Whether or not the underlying reasons are known to the team, they haven’t been disclosed publicly. It’s also unclear what’s next for Hickey. Regardless, the move leaves the Chicago club in need of top staff members to handle both their hurlers and their hitters. (The Cubs previously dismissed Chili Davis as hitting coach.)

It’s the second-straight winter in which the Cubbies have gone hiring these important positions. While coaching staff turnover is hardly unusual, this level of churn is clearly suboptimal. And it comes as manager Joe Maddon enters a contract year. The organization already has made clear it won’t lock him up to a new deal before the start of the 2019 campaign.

Hickey brought high expectations with him to Chicago when he joined the club about 13 months back. He had worked with Maddon before with the Rays and had a strong reputation. While the Cubs’ staff finished with an exemplary 3.65 cumulative earned-run average, third-lowest in baseball, it graded out as a middle-of-the-pack unit by ERA estimators. Of course, those broad-based results do not necessarily reflect well or poorly on Hickey’s efforts, the merits of which are all but impossible to assess from the outside.

Latest On Manny Machado & Bryce Harper

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As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, in a general encapsulation of the state of play in the current free agent market, there’s still not much clarity regarding superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Perhaps, as Kepner suggests, with the two belles of the ball still waiting to find a dance partner, the rest of the participants are still milling about, afraid to commit.

Of course, the market is also operating in the shadow of last winter’s dud of a dance, so the factors influencing the secondary tiers of free agency could reflect broader changes mostly unrelated to Machado and Harper. Whether the matchmaking process will be as slow as it was last year remains to be seen; the more interesting question, though, is simply whether there’ll be more money out there for the good-but-not-great players available. As for Machado and Harper, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be paid handsomely.

It’s interesting, though perhaps not surprising, that the conversation thus far has mostly focused on Harper. As Kepner notes, Harper’s gunslinging agent Scott Boras is selling Harper to suitors as an “iconic” and uniquely marketable player. The ever-visible Boras is, of course, also making that same pitch in very public fashion to and through the media. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, has negotiated some monster deals of his own, so he’s no amateur. Clearly, though, he is not pursuing the sort of media strategy that Boras is.

The differences in the agents’ approaches are perhaps in some part reflections of genuine personality differences in their respective clients. While he hardly carries any kind of reputation for off-field antics, Harper seems to be enjoying his time in the spotlight, playfully dropping hints on social media and an assuredly unscripted TMZ spot. (Did you know: Harper’s dog is still named Wrigley and he quite likes deep dish!)

Machado, meanwhile, has been more or less off the radar entirely — leaving many to hem and haw over the generally distasteful impression he left during the World Series. In an interview published this morning by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Machado has perhaps launched his effort at shifting the narrative somewhat. The 26-year-old casts himself as a humble, hard-working player who shows up every day and cares about winning — which, generally, was his reputation both in and out of baseball circles prior to the recent shift.

Of course, the change in public perception — one that was likely not fully embraced by those that have known him in person for years — was a self-inflicted wound caused by Machado’s cringeworthy comments on hustling as well as some highly questionable on-field actions. Machado says he accepts the blame for how his words came across, but explains: “I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.”

Machado unsurprisingly declines to divulge any details about his thinking on an ultimate destination. Generally, he suggests to Feinsand that he’s open to any and all suitors. And he says he won’t do anything to make the process a more-publicized one than it already promises to be. “When the time comes,” Machado says, “there will probably be a few of the teams that I will sit down with in person, but it’s not something I plan on being very public about.” There’s plenty more to digest from his chat with Feinsand, which is a must-read piece, though Machado surely will still have plenty to answer to when he sits down with team owners who are considering committing hundreds of millions of dollars to employ him.

Generally, the final dollar tallies these two excellent young players will command will be the result of an auction process, the course of which will be determined by the quantity and intensity of team owners waving bidding paddles from the gallery. We don’t yet have a firm sense of the field of Machado bidders, but the rough contours of Harper’s market are beginning to emerge. Notably, it seems he may have two more interesting potential suitors.

It won’t surprise anyone to hear the Cardinals and Braves mentioned as possibilities, as they’ve both long been discussed as teams to keep an eye on. But it’s still notable to see some increasing evidence of real involvement. The owner of the St. Louis franchise, Bill DeWitt III, tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that a move for a top-tier free agent is on the table — though he doesn’t necessarily do so in terms that suggest it’s the likeliest outcome. “We could do it, sure,” says DeWitt. “It’s about (considering) putting all our eggs in one basket. We have the payroll room.” 

As for the Atlanta organization, which is owned by a corporate entity (Liberty Media) that is theoretically less likely to be swayed by emotion, it remains a bit difficult to gauge the true level of interest. But David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that he’s getting signs the Braves will be “players in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.” Whether or not the club will turn into a front-runner, let alone land Harper, is obviously still unclear. But it seems fair to presume that the involvement of multiple, serious suitors increases the likelihood that Boras (or, for Machado, Lozano) will be able to convince one team to enter a new contract stratosphere of the kind MLBTR predicted in its ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Diamondbacks To Sign Kelby Tomlinson

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The Diamondbacks have agreed to a deal with free-agent utilityman Kelby Tomlinson, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter links). He’ll receive a minor-league pact with a camp invite and potential $850K salary in the big leagues.

Tomlinson, 28, has seen his offensive production lag over the past several seasons following a promising start to his career. Over 374 trips to the plate since the start of 2017, he’s hitting just .237/.305/.293 with one home run and nine stolen bases.

As the Giants prepared for another winter of uncertainty, they recently dropped the out-of-options Tomlinson from their 40-man roster, making him eligible for minor-league free agency. If he proves worthy of another MLB chance with the Snakes, he could offer his new organization quite a bit of versatility. Over his time in the majors, Tomlinson has logged innings at second, short, and third while also lining up a few times in the outfield.

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