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MLBTR Originals

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Here is the last seven days’ worth of original content from the MLBTR writing staff….

  • The Angels, Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees were the latest teams featured in the Projecting Payroll series by Rob Huff, who analyzes each team’s current financial commitments and past spending history to predict how much money each club could potentially have for new player acquisitions this offseason.
  • We’re continuing to preview our way through each team’s winter plans in our Offseason Outlook series.  This week’s entries spotlighted the Cardinals, Indians (both by Kyle Downing), Braves, Rockies (both by Jeff Todd), and the Giants (by Mark Polishuk).
  • For any number of reasons, a player signed to an expensive contract may no longer be a good fit on his team’s roster.  Jeff Todd compiled a list of such players who could potentially be available in trades this winter, either in pure salary dumps or perhaps cases where two teams exchange high-priced players to better fulfill each club’s need.
  • Tim Dierkes published another round of survey results from the contestants in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest.  This latest set focused on where the players ranked 11th-20th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list — Andrew McCutchen, Yusei Kikuchi, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Morton, Wilson Ramos, Marwin Gonzalez, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, David Robertson, and Adam Ottavino — will wind up by Opening Day.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Harper, Goldy, Arenado, Rays, Paxton

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Poll: Should The Marlins Trade J.T. Realmuto This Offseason?

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Entering the offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins would trade their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, prior to the 2019 campaign. Not only is Miami a rebuilding team whose control over Realmuto is dwindling (he’s due to become a free agent after 2020), but the 27-year-old has shown no desire to sign an extension with the club.

At this point, a trade of Realmuto hardly seems imminent, but considering the offseason’s still in its infancy, there’s ample time for a deal to come together. However, in order for that to happen, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price for Realmuto, as Buster Olney of ESPN reported Nov. 16 that the Fish are seeking a “beyond staggering” return for the All-Star backstop. Since then, National League East rival Washington – a well-known Realmuto suitor – may have taken itself out of the sweepstakes by signing Kurt Suzuki to a two-year, $10MM contract in free agency. The Nationals could still try for Realmuto, who’d form an elite tandem with Suzuki, but there’s clearly less of a need for them to pay a bounty for a catcher than there was at the outset of the offseason.

Certainly, should talks between the Nationals and Marlins end or continue to stagnate, there would still be a slew of teams interested in Realmuto. As arguably the majors’ premier catcher, Realmuto would easily improve other prospective 2019-20 contenders such as the Astros, Rockies, Mets, Athletics, Brewers, Braves and Dodgers, to name some. As of now, though, the sense from other clubs is that the Marlins will retain Realmuto heading into next season, per Olney.

Because the Marlins seem unlikely to contend in the next two years, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be mistaken in holding Realmuto this winter. In the Marlins’ view, Realmuto’s value actually increased in 2018, according to Olney, though it may be unrealistic on their part to expect a repeat in 2019. Even if the well-rounded Realmuto continues his run as a top-tier catcher next season, his diminishing team control isn’t going to do his trade value any favors. Plus, by keeping Realmuto, Miami would run the risk of a decline in performance and/or a significant injury – either of which would be disastrous from its perspective.

While many are tired of seeing the Marlins sell off proven veterans, as they did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, they may not have a choice with Realmuto. Even after last winter’s firesale, the Marlins continue to feature a below-average farm system, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball America. Moving Realmuto would immediately better their outlook on that front, and if they’re going to trade him, it may be in their best interests to do so in the next few weeks. After all, with bona fide No. 1 options Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos headlining the free-agent catcher class, Miami could soon have two fewer suitors for Realmuto if it doesn’t act quickly.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/25/18

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Keeping track of the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Japan’s Yokohama BayStars have re-signed right-hander Spencer Patton to a two-year, $3MM guarantee with up to $1MM in incentives, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. A fifth-round pick of the Royals in 2011, Patton saw limited action with the Rangers (2014-15) and Cubs (2016) earlier in his professional career. Now 30 years old, Patton immigrated to Japan prior to the 2017 season and has since recorded sterling numbers – a 2.64 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 – over 116 innings.
  • The Giants have signed righty Kieran Lovegrove to a minor league deal, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. San Francisco’s the second organization for the 24-year-old Lovegrove, who had been in Cleveland’s system since it selected him in the third round of the 2012 draft. The hard-throwing, South African-born Lovegrove spent most of last season at the Double-A level, where he pitched to a 3.46 ERA with 8.77 K/9 and 6.23 BB/9 in 39 frames. FanGraphs’ David Laurila profiled and interviewed Lovegrove earlier this month.

Angels Hire Shawn Wooten As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The Angels have promoted Shawn Wooten to assistant hitting coach, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Wooten, who served as the Angels’ minor league assistant hitting coordinator last season, will work under hitting coach Jeremy Reed in Anaheim.

The 46-year-old Wooten is a longtime member of the Angels organization, having spent the majority of his major league career on their roster before entering the coaching ranks. The former catcher and corner infielder was in Anaheim from 2000-03, during which he was part of the franchise’s only World Series-winning team (2002), before playing parts of the next two seasons with the Phillies and Red Sox. His career wrapped up in 2008 after a combined three years in the minors with the Twins, Mets and Padres.

Wooten’s hiring is the third that new manager Brad Ausmus has made since assuming the reins in October. The club previously added Reed and tabbed Doug White as its pitching coach.

Latest On Indians’ Top Starters

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The Yankees and Mariners pulled off a blockbuster trade on Monday, when New York sent three prospects – including left-hander Justus Sheffield – to Seattle for southpaw James Paxton.  But before that deal went down, there was a possibility of the Yankees returning Sheffield to the Indians, his first professional organization.

Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did. According to Hoynes, Cleveland still likes Sheffield, whom it chose in the first round of the 2014 draft but later traded to the Yankees in a 2016 deal headlined by reliever Andrew Miller. Still, it’s no surprise that the Tribe elected against trading any of its ace-caliber starters to reunite with the 22-year-old Sheffield.

If Cleveland’s going to move Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, Hoynes relays that it’ll need to receive a return that would unquestionably help the club stay atop the American League Central, a division it has won three years in a row. Conversely, the Mariners don’t figure to contend in 2019, so they were more willing to accept a future-oriented package for Paxton. In addition to the well-regarded Sheffield, Paxton brought back a pair of non-elite prospects in righty Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams.

Even if the Indians were to subtract one of Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer, starting pitching wouldn’t be a weak point for the club, as it also counts Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Danny Salazar and Triston McKenzie among its rotation possibilities. The team’s outfield is an obvious concern, on the other hand, and as Kyle Downing of MLBTR pointed out in previewing the Indians’ offseason, it would make more sense for a Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer trade to net them a cheap, controllable solution in that area.

If the Indians do part with any of their three right-handed stars this offseason, each would warrant a greater return than Paxton. The Big Maple, who’s down to his final two years of arbitration eligibility, hasn’t been as durable as any member of Cleveland’s trio. There’s also a rather strong case to be made that he simply isn’t as good as Kluber, Carrasco or Bauer.

Few have been able to combine dominance and durability like the 32-year-old Kluber dating back to his 2014 breakout. The two-time AL Cy Young winner also comes with up to three years of team control. Kluber’s due $17MM next year, and after that, his employer will have decisions to make on a $17.5MM club option in 2020 and an $18MM option in ’21. Barring major injury issues or a noticeable downturn in performance, those options will be exercised.

Like Paxton, both Carrasco and Bauer have two years of team control left. Carrasco will earn $9MM in 2019 and perhaps another $9.5MM by way of a club option in 2020, though that figure could increase based on AL Cy Young voting. Bauer’s future salaries are less certain than his two teammates’, but he’s projected to earn an affordable sum – $11.6MM – in his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although the 27-year-old doesn’t yet have the long-term track record of Kluber or Carrasco, Bauer may have been better than both of them in 2018, when he logged a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 in 175 1/3 innings.

It’s unclear whether the Indians will trade any of their three No. 1 starters in the coming months, but their futures will undoubtedly be among the majors’ most interesting storylines this offseason. Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer, along with Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Madison Bumgarner (Giants) and free agents Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, appear to be the best starters who have at least some chance to end up on the move prior to the 2019 campaign.

Olney’s Latest: Goldy, Yanks, Astros, Pollock, Brantley, Cutch, Mariners

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It’s unclear whether the Diamondbacks will trade their franchise player, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, though Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required) hears from rival evaluators that they are “intent” on dealing the 31-year-old. While Goldschmidt has consistently been one of the majors’ best players during his career, it’s unlikely the Diamondbacks would receive a significant haul in exchange for his final year of team control, observes Olney, who notes that most contenders aren’t seeking a first baseman. But St. Louis and Houston continue to show a good amount of interest in Goldschmidt, per Olney, which jibes with a previous report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Olney adds that rival clubs believe the Astros have seemingly tried to move young right-hander J.B. Bukauskas, their eighth-ranked prospect at MLB.com, in trade talks. Similarly, the Yankees were “pushing”  left-handed pitching prospect Justus Sheffield in Goldschmidt discussions, Olney reports. Sheffield’s no longer in the picture for New York, though, as it traded him to Seattle this week in a deal for lefty James Paxton.

  • Back to Houston, which has been shopping near the top of the market for free-agent outfielders, according to Olney, who lists A.J. Pollock, Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley among their targets. Unless the Astros deem soon-to-be 22-year-old prospect Kyle Tucker ready for a full-time role, they have an opening in the outfield, where George Springer and Josh Reddick are their only obvious starters. Signing Pollock, a center fielder, would enable them to move Springer back to a corner after he spent the majority of 2017-18 in center. Pollock’s likely to rake in the biggest payday of the trio, though; further, given that Pollock comes with a qualifying offer attached, adding him would also cost the Astros their second-highest draft pick in 2019 and $500K in international pool space.
  • The Mariners have been the most active team on the trade market this offseason, having already dealt Paxton and catcher Mike Zunino. With aggressive general manager Jerry Dipoto at the helm and the M’s desire to take a step back in 2019, more trades involving their veterans are likely on the way. However, it continues to look as though the Mariners will keep their two top players, outfielder Mitch Haniger and closer Edwin Diaz. It would take overwhelming offers for the Mariners to seriously consider moving either Haniger or Diaz, Olney tweets. Both stars are controllable for the next four years, including another pre-arbitration season apiece.

AL Notes: Rays, Cruz, Rangers, Colon, Blue Jays, Biggio

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The Rays, along with the previously reported Astros and White Sox, have shown interest in free-agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz, per Jon Heyman of Fancred and Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Although Tampa Bay’s not known for throwing money around in free agency, the club currently has cash to play with and a need for a big-hitting presence after designating power hitter C.J. Cron for assignment this past Tuesday. Judging by the offensive prowess Cruz has shown off during his long career, he’d deftly step in for Cron. The 38-year-old Cruz is limited to DH, though, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote Saturday that the Rays may want to replace Cron with a player who poses a threat at the plate while also offering some defensive versatility. It’s also unclear whether the Rays would meet Cruz’s potential price (MLBTR predicts he’ll land a two-year, $30MM guarantee), with Topkin noting they might only hand out a one-year, $10MM-plus contract.

Here’s more on a couple other American League teams…

  • Despite their need for starting pitching, the Rangers haven’t shown a desire to re-sign free agent Bartolo Colon, according to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. Even though he was the majors’ oldest player in 2018, the 45-year-old Colon tallied 146 1/3 innings and recorded the league’s third-lowest BB/9 (1.54) among those who threw 140 or more frames. At the same time, however, the right-hander finished bottom two among qualified starters in ERA (5.78), FIP (5.47) and K/9 (4.98). It was the second straight rough year for Colon, who may struggle to find a contract this offseason as a result.
  • Blue Jays prospect Cavan Biggio enjoyed a breakout 2018 at the Double-A level, where he thrived at the plate while seeing extensive action at second, third and first. The Blue Jays, hoping to add to Biggio’s defensive flexibility, then sent the 23-year-old to the Arizona Fall League to garner outfield experience, as John Lott of The Athletic details (subscription required). Biggio, the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, performed well in the grass, per Lott. It’s unclear if the Blue Jays will continue using Biggio in the outfield next year, but as Lott points out, taking on a super-utility role would likely hasten his arrival to the major leagues. Biggio, for his part, seems more than happy to play wherever Toronto wants him to, and director of player development Gil Kim believes “he’s got the athletic ability and the baseball acumen to do that effectively.”

Yankees Notes: Ottavino, Kikuchi, Harper

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A few notes from the Bronx…

  • With crucial bullpen pieces David Robertson and Zach Britton among their free agents, the Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, according to general manager Brian Cashman (via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). One of those pickups may be free-agent right-hander Adam Ottavino, whom the Yankees are interested in, Sherman reports. The 33-year-old Ottavino – a New York City native – just put up a career season in Colorado, where he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings. On the heels of his marvelous 2018 campaign, MLBTR predicts Ottavino will join the Yankees on a three-year, $30MM contract this offseason.
  • The Yankees have discussed signing Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, team owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed earlier this month (per David Lennon of Newsday). “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings,” Steinbrenner said. “We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year.” Steinbrenner’s comments came before the Yankees acquired fellow lefty James Paxton from the Mariners this past Monday, which in theory could lessen the need for Kikuchi. However, the Yankees still seem destined to get at least one more high-end starter this offseason, and they’ve never been shy about pursuing hyped Japanese talent, evidenced by past signings such as Hideki Irabu, Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa and Masahiro Tanaka. While the 27-year-old Kikuchi’s not yet available to major league clubs, that will change when the Seibu Lions – his team in Nippon Professional Baseball – post him in early December.
  • New York is loaded in the outfield, where it boasts Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper seems like more of a luxury than a need, then, though there has been speculation about the Yankees signing the superstar to play first base, where their top holdover, Luke Voit, dominated late in 2018 but doesn’t carry an extensive major league track record. Earlier this week, Cashman discussed the possibility of signing Harper to line up at first, telling the YES Network (via Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com): “People have talked about Bryce Harper being able to play first base, I don’t know if he can or can’t. I know he’s very athletic, but that’s not necessarily a bet I would recommend placing with the amount of money he’s expected to get.” Although Cashman doesn’t seem enthusiastic about Harper as a first base option, the executive added that he’s “not ruling anything out.”

Latest On Sonny Gray’s Market

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After a nightmarish year in the Bronx, his first full season with the Yankees, right-hander Sonny Gray is among the majors’ most obvious trade candidates this winter. General manager Brian Cashman has made it known the Yankees are aiming to move Gray, who has drawn plenty of interest this offseason. Along with the previously reported Athletics and Padres, teams that are eyeing Gray include the Braves, Rangers and Twins, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Any team that picks up Gray would be taking on a rental, as 2019 will be the 29-year-old’s final arbitration-eligible campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gray to earn $9.1MM, which may look steep for a pitcher who failed to maintain a spot in the Yankees’ rotation for all of last season and only managed a 4.90 ERA across 130 1/3 innings (30 appearances, 23 starts). However, ERA estimators such as FIP (4.17), xFIP (4.10) and SIERA (4.28) suggest Gray deserved better in the run prevention department in 2018, and while he did issue a high number of walks (3.94 per nine), he also posted quality strikeout (8.49 K/9) and groundball (50 percent) rates. Moreover, Gray’s struggles were mostly limited to the Bronx, as he logged a horrendous 6.98 ERA/5.98 FIP at home and a terrific 3.17 ERA/2.65 FIP on the road. Historically, Gray has been closer to the pitcher he was away from Yankee Stadium last season, as his 3.66 ERA and 3.74 FIP over 900 combined 2/3 innings with the A’s and Yankees demonstrate.

Of the newly listed teams pursuing Gray, the Rangers stand out as the club likely to have the most difficult time making the playoffs next season. Not only are the Rangers a rebuilding team stuck in a division with the Astros, A’s, Mariners and Angels, but they’re ridiculously thin on starting pitchers and may soon deal their No. 1 option, Mike Minor. It would be a surprise to see Texas come out on top in the race for Gray, then, while the other teams seem like more plausible landing spots.

The reigning NL East champion Braves have shown past interest in Gray – albeit with different front office leadership than they have now – and need to replace free agent Anibal Sanchez, who was unexpectedly one of their best starters in 2018. And though the Braves seem to have the payroll room to aim higher than Gray, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has suggested they’re hesitant to dish out expensive long-term deals at this juncture. Therefore, it makes sense that the Braves are interested in Gray, who’d be a relatively low-risk addition.

Minnesota, unlike Atlanta, disappointed last season, taking several steps backward after earning a playoff spot in 2017. The Twins are in a division that may be there for the taking, though, so the right moves this offseason could make the team serious AL Central contenders next year. In Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (who missed all of last season), the Twins already have four established starters under control for next season. However, they’re lacking another proven hurler along the lines of Gray, who’d seemingly slot in ahead of the likes of Fernando Romero, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves – a trio which has combined for 203 innings and 40 starts in the majors.

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