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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Machado, Mets, Braves, Rays

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This week in baseball blogs…

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AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer

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The latest from the American League…

  • If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
  • Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
  • Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.

NL East Notes: Nats, Rendon, Suzuki, Mets, Ramos

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Nationals superstar Anthony Rendon is slated to enter a contract year in 2019, but he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday that he’s “up for” signing an extension. The third baseman revealed that he and the Nats have been discussing an extension for a year, adding that while he hopes to remain in Washington, he’d be content to enter next season without a new contract. The 28-year-old Rendon continued to make a case for a mega-deal in 2018, as he finished top 10 in both position player fWAR (eighth) and wRC+ (10th).

Here’s more from Washington and one of its division rivals:

  • The Mets are hesitant to go after ex-Nat Wilson Ramos, one of the top two free-agent catchers available, because of concerns over his defense and injury issues, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York’s “prioritizing” behind-the-plate defense and putting an extra emphasis on pitch framing, Puma adds. Baseball Prospectus has typically awarded Ramos positive pitch-framing and defense marks, though going by its Fielding Runs Above Average metric, he has been a scratch or minus defender for three straight seasons. Ramos has also torn his right ACL twice, including in 2016, which limited him to 64 games in 2017 as he worked his way back. However, Ramos did catch 96 games last season – 92 more than oft-injured Mets backstop Travis d’Arnaud, whom they tendered a contract Friday. Of course, Ramos is sure to require a pricey multiyear commitment, whereas d’Arnaud’s essentially set to play under a one-year deal worth a projected $3.7M.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) applauds Washington’s acquisition of catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland, writing that the Nationals made a sizable improvement behind the plate without surrendering much. Having Gomes instead of 2018 starter Matt Wieters as their primary catcher could mean at least a four-win upgrade next year, Law posits. Law goes on to assess outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez – whom the Indians received for Gomes – in detail, noting that the former just endured a disappointing, injury-shortened season and the latter may only max out as a righty specialist in the majors. But Law explains that there’s hope for Indians catcher Eric Haase, who may succeed Gomes as their main backstop.
  • Between Gomes and free-agent signing Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have made a pair of noteworthy additions at catcher in the past couple weeks. Although, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post notes, it’s not yet clear how the Nats will divvy up playing time between the two next season. GM Mike Rizzo suggested Saturday that he’d leave it up to manager Dave Martinez, who declared that “they’re both going to split time.” Rizzo added that Suzuki could see action at first base, where he has never appeared in a major league game. Regardless, Suzuki’s “totally on board” with the Gomes pickup, per Rizzo.

Blue Jays Reportedly Interested In Dallas Keuchel

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11:24am: Toronto’s likely not a real threat to sign Keuchel, suggests Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, who expects the club to shop for lower-tier free-agent starters.

9:40am: As the most accomplished starting pitcher available in free agency, left-hander Dallas Keuchel has unsurprisingly drawn plenty of attention this offseason. Count the Blue Jays among the teams with interest in him, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports.

Starting pitching is a concern for the Blue Jays, whose rotation ranked an atrocious 28th in ERA and an unimpressive 21st in fWAR in 2018. That included a solid 114 innings from lefty J.A. Happ, whom the Blue Jays traded over the summer and now have interest in bringing back in free agency.

As things stand, the most established starters remaining in Toronto are Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Sam Gaviglio and Ryan Borucki – a quartet that, with the exception of Borucki, struggled to prevent runs last season. Moreover, Stroman and Sanchez, despite the immense promise they’ve shown at times, have come up in trade speculation this offseason. Even if the Jays do keep them heading into next year, their control over the pair is dwindling, as both Stroman and Sanchez are only arbitration eligible through 2020.

While the Jays’ No. 1 and 2 starters are controllable for just two more seasons, it may take a contract at least twice that long to reel in the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel. The career-long Astro is in line for a four-year, $82MM deal, MLBTR predicts. Whether the Jays would be well-served by making such a commitment is debatable. Toronto may have trouble pushing for a playoff spot during the very early portion of Keuchel’s deal, after all, as general manager Ross Atkins has suggested the team’s realistically hoping to return to contention in 2020 or ’21. In the meantime, the club should continue to have its hands full in a division led by the world champion Red Sox, the title-contending Yankees and the up-and-coming Rays.

Keuchel’s age, his status as a qualifying offer recipient and the Jays’ current state seem to make the two an imperfect match, though they may earnestly pursue the former AL Cy Young Award winner if they believe he’ll avoid a sharp decline. Keuchel’s run prevention, strikeout, groundball and swing-and-miss numbers dipped last year in comparison to his best seasons, but he remained a formidable producer. Further, Keuchel has never been one to rely on velocity or post gaudy strikeout numbers, and has instead leaned on his exceptional ability to induce weak contact. Keuchel’s big-talking agent, Scott Boras, plans to take advantage of that, having announced that he’s selling his client as the “soft-contact genius of his era.”

A.J. Pollock Reportedly Seeking Deal In $80MM Neighborhood

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In each of the previous two offseasons, the top-ranked free-agent center fielder available inked a deal worth at least $80MM. The Cardinals made a five-year, $82.5MM commitment to Dexter Fowler heading into 2017, and the Brewers followed suit by awarding Lorenzo Cain a five-year, $80MM guarantee last offseason. If A.J. Pollock has his way, he’ll rake in a similar payday this winter. The longtime Diamondback is seeking a contract in the vicinity of the Fowler and Cain pacts, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

It’s no surprise that Pollock is aiming high early in free agency, especially considering the lack of center field alternatives available on either the open or trade market. Nevertheless, Pollock’s asking price may be rather ambitious, with MLBTR predicting he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee and FanGraphs projecting a three-year, $54MM deal.

It’s true that Pollock has generally been a good to excellent performer throughout his career, which began in earnest in 2013. However, injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Pollock, who missed 87 games in 2014, 150 in 2016, 50 in 2017 and 49 last season. Further, youth isn’t necessarily on Pollock’s side (he’ll turn 31 on Dec. 6), and because he rejected a qualifying offer from Arizona, signing him would cost a team more than just a truckload of cash. For their part, the Diamondbacks are likely rooting for Pollock to achieve his big-money goal if he doesn’t re-sign with them. Should Pollock go elsewhere for upward of $50MM, it would greatly increase the compensation the D-backs would receive.

To this point, only the Astros have been linked to Pollock on MLBTR’s pages since free agency opened, though Nightengale writes that he’s drawing “plenty of interest.” Aside from the Astros, potential fits could include the Giants, White Sox, Cubs, Mets, Indians and Phillies, among others.

The team that signs Pollock will be landing a valuable player who has totaled between 2.3 fWAR and 6.8 fWAR in five seasons, despite his injury woes. The right-handed hitter posted 2.5 fWAR in 460 plate appearances last season, when he slashed .257/.316/.484 (110 wRC+) with a career-high 21 home runs, a personal-best .228 ISO and 13 stolen bases on 15 tries. Those are impressive numbers, but they pale in comparison to Pollock’s offensive production from his 2014-15 heyday, and he’s now coming off a season in which he registered career-worst chase, swinging-strike, strikeout and contact rates. Meanwhile, Pollock did earn mostly solid marks in center field – which has been the case throughout his time in the majors – with six Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a minus-0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.

On a per-PA basis, Pollock’s career has been better than Fowler’s when he got to the market and similar to Cain’s when he hit free agency. It’s easy to see why Pollock is likely to collect an appreciable raise in the coming weeks, then. Still, Pollock’s longstanding injury issues figure to prevent him from approaching the contracts Fowler and Cain received.

AL East News & Rumors: BoSox, Robertson, Yanks, Miller, Rays, O’s

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It may take a three-year commitment to sign free-agent reliever David Robertson this offseason, but “the Red Sox are in for less,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post. Considering Robertson’s a Rhode Island resident who’d prefer to pitch in the Northeast, where he has spent most of his career, he looks like a logical fit for a Boston team which could lose Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly in free agency. However, if the Red Sox are only willing to hand Robertson a one- or two-year contract, a union between them and the longtime Yankee may not be in the cards.

Here’s more from the American League East:

  • With both Robertson and Zach Britton on the open market, the Yankees have one of their ex-relievers, free-agent left-hander Andrew Miller, on their “radar,” per King. In 2014, the last time Miller was a free agent, he signed a four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees. That proved to be a shrewd investment for the Yanks, who received brilliant production from Miller before trading him to Cleveland in a 2016 swap in which New York acquired Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the latter was just dealt to Seattle for high-end starter James Paxton). Miller stood out for most of his time with the Indians, including during their run to a World Series berth in 2016, but the 33-year-old is now fresh off an injury-shortened season in which his numbers fell off.
  • The Athletics are making headway toward a new ballpark in their city, but the same isn’t true for the Rays, as Charlie Frago and Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times detail. While the Rays and officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., had been hoping to debut an $892MM ballpark in the Ybor City neighborhood of Tampa Bay in 2023, an agreement isn’t imminent as the Dec. 31 deadline looms, Frago and O’Donnell report. Consequently, the Rays may not move to a new stadium until 2024 or later. They’ve called the much-derided Tropicana Field home since they began play in 1998.
  • It appears Brady Anderson, a prominent member of the Orioles’ previous front office, will stay in the fold under rookie general manager Mike Elias, according to Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). Not only that, but it seems Anderson – currently Baltimore’s vice president of baseball operations – will continue to serve in a major role, Connolly relays. Elias spoke highly of Anderson in an interview with Buster Olney of ESPN this week, saying (via Connolly): “He’s very smart, he’s very capable, and, most of all, he has a very deep love for this franchise. So, I’m looking forward to working with him.”

Mets, Indians Have Discussed Corey Kluber

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Having already swung one blockbuster trade this offseason, the Mets may have further headline-grabbing deals in mind. It appears they have interest in Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who reports that the two teams have discussed the right-hander.

The Mets are one of several teams reportedly eyeing Kluber, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner whose name has been prominent in rumors for a month. The fact that Kluber’s on the Mets’ radar is especially fascinating given that the future of one of their aces, righty Noah Syndergaard, is up in the air.

While New York may be attempting to build a dominant rotation led by Jacob deGrom, Kluber and Syndergaard, Feinsand notes it’s possible they could end up dealing Syndergaard and then acquiring Kluber in a separate trade. Swapping out Syndergaard for Kluber would seemingly be a near-term upgrade, though the latter is far older and pricier than the former. The 26-year-old Syndergaard has three arbitration-eligible campaigns remaining and will only make a projected $5.9MM next season, while the soon-to-be 33-year-old Kluber will earn $17MM in 2019 – also his third-last year of control.

For Cleveland, trading Kluber would be an obvious blow to its pitching staff, though a deal could come to fruition if it enables the team to pick up immediate help and cut payroll. If the Indians would indeed want controllable, young major leaguers for Kluber, then Syndergaard, outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and second baseman Jeff McNeil look like the most logical fits from the Mets’ roster. All four are under control through at least 2021 and would seemingly help keep a Kluber-less Indians team strong in 2019.

Aside from that quartet, it doesn’t appear the rest of the Mets’ roster or their prospect pool is teeming with ideal pieces to pry Kluber out of Cleveland. Baseball America ranked the Mets’ farm an uninspiring 19th in the game even before they agreed to trade a pair of their best prospects, outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn, to Seattle in a package for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Mets do still have two of the outlet’s top-1oo prospects, however, in shortstop Andres Gimenez (No. 53) and first baseman Peter Alonso (No. 72).

While it’s unknown how serious the Mets are about Kluber, it’s fair to say they’re positioning themselves as one of this offseason’s most interesting teams to watch. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been a polarizing presence in his first few weeks as an executive, but it’s clear he’s willing to make bold moves in an effort to improve a New York club coming off back-to-back sub-.500 seasons.

NL East Rumors: Fish, Realmuto, Braves, Keuchel, Phils, M’s

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A few National League East-themed rumblings…

  • The Braves reunited with catcher Brian McCann in free agency Wednesday, giving them a decent behind-the-plate tandem with him and Tyler Flowers. Atlanta’s not necessarily out of the sweepstakes for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week (subscription link). It appears Miami would need to significantly lower its asking price in order for Realmuto to join the NL East rival Braves, however. Per Rosenthal, the Marlins requested second baseman Ozzie Albies and more from the Braves in the teams’ discussions. Unsurprisingly, the Braves haven’t been willing to part with the 21-year-old Albies, who turned in a 3.8-fWAR rookie campaign in 2018 and is under wraps for the foreseeable future, for two seasons of control over Realmuto, 27.
  • Sticking with the Braves, free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel is “high on their wish list,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in favor of reaching the open market, but because the Braves received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the competitive balance tax in 2018, they’d only lose their third-highest draft pick in signing him. While Keuchel does figure to ink one of the richest contracts in this winter’s free-agent class, the Braves may have the money to reel him in, even after committing a combined $25MM to McCann and Josh Donaldson this week. Atlanta has plenty of young starting pitching on hand, but it’s arguably in need of a quality veteran starter like the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel – especially with integral 2018 contributor Anibal Sanchez now a free agent and Julio Teheran looking like a potential trade chip.
  • More from Rosenthal, who tweets that the Mariners have shown interest in Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford in the clubs’ talks centering on Seattle’s Jean Segura. Acquiring Segura wouldn’t take the Phillies out of the running for free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, Rosenthal adds. If the Phillies were to land both, they’d use Segura at short and Machado at third, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Although, considering Machado has made it known he prefers shortstop, Salisbury notes that it’s unclear whether Philadelphia would be able to sell him on the hot corner – where he has spent the majority of his career. As for Crawford, he’s young (24 in January), affordable and controllable for a while, making him a fit for the rebuilding Mariners in those respects. Crawford hasn’t lived up to the elite prospect billing he once had, however. Across 138 major league plate appearances last season, Crawford turned in a passable batting line (.214/.319/.393 – good for a 96 wRC+), though he also posted subpar defensive numbers (minus-6 DRS, minus-3.4 UZR) in 229 innings at short.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/1/18

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Keeping track of the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Royals right-hander Burch Smith cleared waivers and has been outrighted to the minor leagues, per mlb.com’s transaction page.  The 28-year-old Smith was a once-promising prospect in the Padres system but has been beset by a string of injuries since.  From 2014′-17, the righty made just 13 appearances, all at the minor league level.  In 78 IP last season, the low-slot Smith allowed 15 HR and walked over 4.5 men per nine, though his average fastball velocity had increased nearly a mile and a half per hour since his last MLB stint in 2013 with San Diego.
  • Righty Mark Leiter of the Blue Jays has also been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers, per Mike Wilner of SportsNet 590 The Fan. The 27-year-old Leiter is the son of the former 11-year big leaguer of the same name, and bested long odds as a 22nd round pick to reach the majors in 2017 with Philadelphia. In parts of two major league seasons with Philly and Toronto, Leiter has been a veritable gopher-ball machine, allowing nearly two homers per nine in 114 total IP, to go along with shaky command and an average strikeout rate.
  • Pirates righty Alex McRae, too, was outrighted to the minors after clearing waivers. McRae, 25, had embarked on a steady ascent through the Pirate farm until last year’s six-inning cameo at the MLB level. The 6’2, 220 lb starter, despite a mediocre strikeout rate, does an excellent job limiting free passes and big fly, and should again find a major league opportunity at some point in the future.

East Notes: Realmuto, Yankees, Sanchez, Markakis, Rays

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The market for star Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto seems to be reaching a fever pitch, with the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Giants among the latest teams to “show interest,” says Fancred’s Jon Heyman.  The odds of an extension for the backstop seem infinitesimal at this juncture, with sources “suggesting” that the proposed figure was in range of the massive extension signed by Giants catcher Buster Posey prior to the start of the 2013 season.  Whether or not the ask was mere posturing on the part of Realmuto, whose agent Jeff Berry seemed to make clear the 27-year-old’s intentions on a radio show in late October, is unknown, but it seems a near certainty the Oklahoma-born product will be moved at some point this offseason.

In other news from around the region . . .

  • Per Heyman, the Yankees seem to be willing to include Gary Sanchez in a deal for Realmuto, but only in something approximating a straight-up swap. Sanchez, who has four remaining years of team control to Realmuto’s two, has turned off some admirers with his indifferent play behind the plate and propensity for the long slump, but is nevertheless an extremely valuable asset in today’s desiccated offensive landscape behind the dish.  Indeed, Steamer actually projects the 26-year-old Sanchez to be nearly as valuable next season as the elder Realmuto (3.5 WAR, to the latter’s 3.7), pegging him for a 116 wRC+ to Realmuto’s 108. It should be noted, too, that analytical models are far more bullish on Sanchez’s much-maligned defense than the general public: DRS, after all, sees Sanchez as clearly superior to the Marlin star over the last three seasons, while Baseball Prospectus, though higher on Realmuto, mostly agrees, seeing the Dominican-born backstop as generally above-average over the same frame. The Marlins, though, seem to find the package insufficient without other “top pieces” involved, which scenario would almost surely be a non-starter for the Bombers.
  • Outfielder Nick Markakis “remains a candidate” to return to Atlanta, and is a “more likely fit” than Michael Brantley, per Heyman. Markakis, a Georgia native, enjoyed a blissful ’18 renaissance in the last year of his 4 year, $44MM deal signed prior the 2015 season, slashing .297/.366/.440 in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park on the way to 2.6 fWAR, his first two-win-plus season with the Braves. Atlanta, of course, continues its search for offensive upgrades even after the inking of Josh Donaldson to a one-year deal, but doesn’t see outfielder A.J. Pollock as a likely target, according to Heyman. The 35-year-old Markakis, though, had posted five consecutive sub-.400 slugging percentage seasons before the last, and has never been a particularly nimble defender in a corner. Atlanta, at this point in the offseason, may be setting its sights a little higher in its dogged pursuit of an outfielder.
  • Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are “considering high-end upgrades” across the diamond. Topkin lists Noah Syndergaard, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nelson Cruz, among others, as potential options, and notes that the team’s monetary resources far outshine those of past seasons. The Rays, perhaps more than any other team, are rife with young talent, with logjams up the middle and on the corners, and have considerable prospect capital with which to deal, so multiple major upgrades cannot, at this point in the offseason, be ruled out.

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