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Tigers Owner Christopher Ilitch Expresses Optimism In Team’s Outlook

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Addressing the media yesterday, Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch struck a notably optimistic tone regarding his organization’s outlook. Evan Woodbery of MLive.com was among those to cover the chat; we’ll tick through a few items of particular note here.

Needless to say, with a 59-86 record, the current roster is not up to snuff. But that doesn’t mean the current campaign hasn’t been productive in the estimation of the man who sits top the organizational hierarchy.

As Ilitch put it, “I think this year has been a tremendous year of progress for the Detroit Tigers.” He credited the major-league club and its staff for producing “a fun team to watch,” even if it isn’t one that has won many games.

Of course, that substandard record was widely anticipated entering the year. GM Al Avila has been tasked with building for the future, rather than prioritizing the present. The Opening Day payroll was down by about $75MM against its 2016-17 levels and stands to fall yet further in the seasons to come.

The “tremendous” season cited by Ilitch, then, has less to do with the MLB showing than his take on the broader organizational overhaul efforts undertaken in this new era for the franchise. He explained:

“I see how hard Al Avila and his staff worked to enhance our scouting, our analytics, our player development. Our goal is very clear: We are working to build a world-class organization that will compete for championships on a sustainable basis. And I’m very committed to providing all of the resources and assets that are necessary to accomplish that.”

There’s little question that the Tigers have accumulated some intriguing young assets. The club’s farm is considered especially deep in pitching, led by recent first overall draft pick Casey Mize and including several other players added in recent drafts and trades.

Just when and how the club will begin to turn the corner again toward contention remains to be seen, but continued progress from those young arms could perhaps force the matter in relatively short order. Of course, health and development remain risk factors. And gathering up a new position-player core will also represent a challenge.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether Ilitch will spend to supplement the roster as lavishly as his father did, but it seems rather unlikely that the openness of his wallet will be tested full this coming offseason. Still, the club could consider some targeted free-agent spending, particularly if there’s good value to be had on a risky or more youthful player. And extensions could always be explored, though Nicholas Castellanos is the only realistic candidate who’ll be entering his walk year.

Luis Urias Unlikely To Return In 2018 After Hamstring Injury

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The Padres do not expect recently promoted infield prospect Luis Urias to return to action this season after suffering a hamstring injury last night, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. Though the full extent of the injury isn’t yet known, San Diego skipper Andy Green says it already seems “doubtful” Urias will make it back in 2018.

Clearly, with just over two weeks left to play, there isn’t a lot of time remaining to make it back onto the field. Most importantly, the Friars will want to be sure not to push a critical young player too hard at this late stage of a noncompetitive season.

Urias won’t turn 22 until next June, but he forced his way onto the MLB roster recently with another quality showing in the upper minors. In his 533 Triple-A plate appearances this season, Urias hit a career-high eight home runs and slashed an impressive .296/.398/.447.

Of course, Urias hasn’t been quite as impressive in his very first attempt at major-league pitching. In a dozen games, he has produced a .208/.264/.354 slash with two home runs and an uncharacteristic mix of ten strikeouts and just three walks.

That limited showing doesn’t detract from Urias’s lofty promise. And it’s certainly not going to prevent him from competing for a MLB job in camp next year. Still, that less-than-compelling output matters somewhat to his near-future roster outlook. Particularly if the hammy tweak sidelines Urias the rest of the way, he arguably will not have shown enough to lock up a starting role in advance of Spring Training.

Hisashi Iwakuma To Return To Japan

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Veteran right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he will conclude his tenure with the Mariners and return to his native Japan. That does not mean, however, that he’s calling his playing career quits.

Hisashi Iwakuma

Iwakuma had been trying to return from shoulder surgery, but only made it to a pair of rehab appearances. While he was not able to get all the way back to the big league mound, the 37-year-old says he still hopes to pitch in the Nippon Professional Baseball League in the future.

As Iwakuma put it: “Looking at the big picture, it’s been long process of rehab, and finally in this long tunnel, I’m starting to see light. … I wanted to explore how much more I could do back in Japan and see if there any teams are interested in me.”

Though he did not come to the majors until his age-31 season, following a strong decade-long NPB run, Iwakuma certainly made his mark at the game’s highest level. He ended up throwing 883 2/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball, all of them coming with the Seattle organization.

It’s easy to forget just how effective ’Kuma was over the years. He never posted gaudy strikeout rates, but rarely gave up free passes and (in his first three seasons, at least) drew groundballs on about half the balls put in play against him.

His best overall season, unquestionably, came in 2013. Iwakuma came up one out shy of accumulating 220 frames and ended the year with a 2.66 ERA and 7.6 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. He earned his lone All-Star nod in the midst of that campaign, which ended with a third-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.

Of course, injuries limited Iwakuma more recently. Problems identified on his physical scuttled a three-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers after the 2015 season. He ended up returning to the M’s on a deal that included a $12MM guarantee and rolling vesting/club options. While the first campaign under that agreement worked out well enough, as Iwakuma threw 199 innings with a 4.12 ERA, he only made six starts with the team in the 2017 season. After the option was declined, Iwakuma ended up returning on a minor-league deal — the same contract that is now coming to a conclusion.

As he prepares to return to Japan, it’s interesting to look back on the circumstances surrounding his original decision to cross the Pacific. Iwakuma was actually posted in the fall of 2010, with the Athletics winning the bidding under the system in place at that time. When Oakland failed to work out a deal with Iwakuma, he pitched a final season in Japan before drawing interest again as a free agent.

Unfortunately, though he was effective in that intervening campaign, Iwakuma also was limited that year by shoulder issues. He ended up signing an incentive-laden, one-year deal with the M’s for only a $1.5MM guarantee. The Seattle club wisely doubled down on that initial investment in the ensuing offseason with a two-year, $14MM extension that included a cheap, $7MM option for the 2015 season.

Though he spent a relatively brief portion of his career in the majors, Iwakuma rates as one of the better Japanese starters ever to ply his trade at the game’s highest level. Where does he rate among them? That’s up for debate, certainly, but those interested in weighing the question can check out this list I compiled of ten prominent Japanese hurlers who’ve compile a notable number of MLB starts.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lotte Giants Place Felix Doubront On Waivers

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The Korea Baseball Organization’s Lotte Giants announced today that they have placed lefty Felix Doubront on waivers, as Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net notes on Twitter (Naver article in Korean). That will presumably bring an end to his tenure with the club.

The move comes on the heels of a particularly rough series of outings for the veteran southpaw. (Statistics via MyKBOStats.com.) He hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning in any of his past three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. That poor stretch has pushed Doubront’s season ERA up to 4.92 through 137 1/3 innings, over which he has compiled 109 strikeouts against 62 walks.

We last saw Doubront stateside last season, when he spent time at Triple-A with the Athletics. But the 30-year-old Venezuelan hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2015. All told, he owns a 4.89 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 513 2/3 MLB frames, the vast majority of them coming in a starting role.

Injury Notes: Stroman, Braves, Ozuna, Tropeano

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Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman “probably” won’t pitch again in 2018, manager John Gibbons told reporters today (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’s been slowed by a blister on his pitching hand of late and simply won’t have enough time to build back up for a return. Stroman last appeared on Sept. 3 — his only appearance since Aug. 17 — and lasted just 1 2/3 innings. If his season does indeed prove to be over, it’ll go down as a forgettable one for the righty. In 102 1/3 innings, Stroman has posted a dismal 5.54 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9, though his elite ground-ball tendencies and a fluky low strand rate have led fielding-independent metrics to paint a more optimistic picture (3.91 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA). Stroman will be arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter as a Super Two player and will earn a modest raise on this year’s $6.5MM salary. He’s controlled through the 2020 season.

Some more notable injury updates from around the league…

  • The NL East-leading Braves should have Arodys Vizcaino back in action on Friday of this week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links), but righty Jose Ramirez won’t pitch again this season. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched since mid-July due to a shoulder issue and was moved to the 60-day DL earlier this month when the Braves made a series of moves to accommodate September roster expansion. They’ll need to make a 40-man move to accommodate Vizcaino’s return; Ramirez, already on the 60-day DL with a shoulder problem of his own, won’t be that move. Meanwhile, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that third baseman Johan Camargo exited tonight’s game due to groin tightness. The team will likely have additional information available either after the game or tomorrow morning.
  • Mark Saxon of The Athletic takes a look at the shoulder troubles that have plagued Marcell Ozuna all season (subscription required). Saxon notes that Ozuna has had difficulty with day-to-day tasks such as taking off a sweatshirt in recent weeks and has played through discomfort all season. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak again acknowledged that the team was aware of some ongoing shoulder troubles with Ozuna when trading for him but felt, if anything, they’d impact his throwing from the outfield — not his offense. Still, Mozeliak says surgery has not been recommended for Ozuna, so it seems he’ll hope rest, rehab and perhaps physical therapy this offseason can help. To his credit, Ozuna has absolutely raked at a .333/.371/.615 clip in his past 143 PAs even while playing through that pain.
  • The Angels are shutting down right-hander Nick Tropeano for the season, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The right-hander’s rehab stint was recently halted, and Fletcher adds that he’ll undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right shoulder in hopes of avoiding offseason surgery. Three separate trips to the DL for shoulder issues limited Tropeano to just 76 innings in 2018, and he struggled to a 4.74 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in that time. Those 76 frames were actually a career-high for the 28-year-old Tropeano, whose career has been proliferated by injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2016. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

Elvis Andrus Unlikely To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus addressed the opt-out clause in his contract with reporters yesterday, strongly suggesting that he doesn’t plan on testing free agency this winter (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Andrus, 30, plainly stated that he is “for sure” coming back to the Rangers next season before backpedaling a bit and emphasizing that no final decision will be made until the offseason.

It’s not much of a surprise to hear Andrus suggest he’ll forgo the opt-out provision in his eight-year, $120MM contract. As I noted last week when running through the opt-outs around the league, Clayton Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out clause in this year’s free-agent class who can be considered likely to opt out. While Andrus had the next-best case, his chances of opting out are lowered by the fact that he has a second opt-out clause in his contract following the 2019 campaign.

Had Andrus performed at a level commensurate with his 2016-17 output — combined .299/.348/.457 with 28 homers and 49 steals in 1257 plate appearances — there’d have been a strong chance he’d opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM. He enjoyed a strong start to the season for the first couple of weeks but then missed just under seven weeks of action after being hit by a pitch and sustaining a fractured elbow.

Since returning, Andrus’ production hasn’t matched his previous levels, as some may have expected given the nature of his injury. Andrus was hitting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances this year but has stumbled to a .253/.293/.365 slash in 307 PAs since returning. He’s made some improvements since the All-Star break, but it’d still be a stretch to imagine him topping $58MM in free agency this winter — especially considering he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer upon opting out. (Were he to walk away from four years and $58MM, the Rangers would surely feel confident he’d do the same if presented with a one-year offer worth around $18MM.)

Andrus can return for a guaranteed $15MM in 2019 and then forgo the remaining $43MM on his contract in the event that he has a better season at the plate. At that point, agent Scott Boras could pitch him as a quality defensive shortstop who has had three strong offensive seasons in his past four years, with the lone disappointment coming after suffering a fairly notable elbow injury that impacted his swing. And, should Andrus incur additional injuries or see his struggles at the plate continue, he’ll have the safety net of a fairly hefty three-year guarantee on which to fall back.

Latest On The Mets’ GM Search

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Since Sandy Alderson announced that he’d be stepping down as general manager of the Mets due to a recurrence of cancer symptoms, there’s been plenty of chatter as to which direction the Mets will head with their front office. Assistant GM John Ricco and veteran execs J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya have shared Alderson’s duties in the interim, but it seems increasingly likely that the Mets will hire a new permanent GM from outside the organization.

Here’s the latest on their search…

  • Mike Puma of the New York Post writes that there’s a disconnect between owner Fred Wilpon and his son, COO Jeff Wilpon, as to what type of executive should be hired to lead the charge. Fred’s preference, according to Puma, would be to hire an experienced front office veteran with roots in scouting and player development, while the younger Wilpon feels the team needs a more analytically inclined mind atop its baseball ops hierarchy. Additionally, it seems that former Mets manager Terry Collins, currently a special assistant, could take on a larger role next season, though he won’t be considered for the actual GM vacancy.
  • The Post’s Joel Sherman, meanwhile, wrote recently that the goal for the Mets is to have a list of 10 to 12 candidates by month’s end and to have a new GM in place by the time the annual GM Meetings begin on Nov. 4. Sherman runs through a host of potential names and references the same disconnect as Puma. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (a current Jays exec) and Cardinals director of player development Gary Larocque are a few of names prominently connected to the job. Sherman notes that whoever is ultimately named GM will be hired with the understanding that Minaya will maintain a fair bit of power in terms of player personnel decisions. That, along with the general dysfunction that is largely synonymous with the Wilpon name at this point, will complicate the hiring process.
  • Shapiro, for what it’s worth, has downplayed reports connecting him to the Mets and expressed that he remains committed to the Blue Jays organization. SNY’s Andy Martino, though, wrote this morning that in spite of Shapiro’s comments, “people around the team continue to point to” Shapiro as a potential candidate. It’s worth noting that Sherman’s column makes mention of tension between Shapiro and Jays ownership at Rogers Communications, though he’d also be an expensive hire for the Mets. Martino, too, lists Cherington as a name to watch, and he also adds current Orioles GM Dan Duquette to the pile. Duquette, notably, is in the final season of his contract in Baltimore, and there’s been previous speculation as to whether he’ll remain with the club.
  • Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp has also had his name come up in numerous reports over the past week (Twitter link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). He’s been with the Royals for more than a decade and has some background in scouting, analytics and business, which could make him somewhat of a compromise between the Wilpons’ disparate preferences, though certainly other candidates would be able to bring a similar combination to the table for the Mets as well.

AL East Notes: Jones, Red Sox, Judge, Mujica

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The Orioles recently benched Adam Jones for the entirety of a three-game series, and Eduardo A. Encina examines the awkward situation, writing that it’s becoming more apparent that the organization doesn’t have long-term plans for Jones. Encina notes that Jones “threw a wrench” into Baltimore’s plans when he vetoed a trade to the Phillies prior to the non-waiver trade deadline but opines that it’s nonetheless surprising to see the popular Jones sitting behind a cast of waiver claims and former Rule 5 picks (e.g. John Andreoli and Joey Rickard). Cedric Mullins is the only well-regarded prospect who’s been playing over Jones — the team did call up DJ Stewart earlier today — making Jones’ lack of playing time in his final weeks as an Oriole all the more curious. Jones’ benching did occur on the road, so perhaps the organization plans to give him more playing time for the team’s remaining home games, where fans can show their appreciation for the 11 seasons Jones has given them.

More from the division…

  • Despite some questions in the Red Sox bullpen, the organization didn’t give much thought to calling up either Durbin Feltman or Travis Lakins in September, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. President of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski tells Bradford that despite a strong minor league showing for each right-hander, neither can be considered a clear upgrade over the relievers currently in the Boston ’pen. A promotion of Feltman would’ve been extraordinarily aggressive, as he was selected in the third round of this year’s draft, though he was labeled a potential fast-track candidate and did pitch brilliantly across multiple Class-A levels. Bradford adds that Lakins’ injury history likely kept the 24-year-old down this year, as the team was wary about subjecting his arm to another two months of innings after he had a stress fracture in his elbow in 2017.
  • Yankees slugger Aaron Judge took on-field batting practice for the first time since fracturing his wrist yesterday and is slated to do so once again today, writes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. There’s no set timeline for him to face live pitching, however, and an eventual return date is even less clear. Judge said he felt “great,” though a day prior he’d acknowledged that the pain in his still-fractured wrist ranked at about a “four” on a scale of 10. Hoch noted recently that skipper Aaron Boone had previously said Judge wouldn’t resume swinging until his wrist had fully healed, but the lengthier-than-expected absence for Judge looks to have altered those plans.
  • Rays pitching prospect Jose Mujica will miss the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The promising young righty, still just 22 years of age, reached Triple-A earlier this season but spent a bit more than two months on the DL this summer and hadn’t pitched since Aug. 22. He’s previously ranked among the organization’s top 30 farmhands, though not since the 2015-16 offseason, in Baseball America’s estimation. That said, Mujica posted a 3.03 ERA in 154 1/3 innings of Double-A ball last year (albeit with just 5.0 K/9) and turned in a stellar 2.70 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 0.25 HR/9 in 36 2/3 innings of Triple-A work earlier this season. He’ll be just 24 years of age when he returns in 2020, so youth is still on his side as he looks to claim a spot in the team’s plans moving forward. It’s been a tough season for Rays farmhands, as the organization has seen Brent Honeywell, Anthony Banda and Jose De Leon as Tommy John victims in 2018.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Clayton Kershaw’s Next Contract

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The 2018-19 free agent class doesn’t look quite as exciting now as it has promised to at points in the past. Still, it’s a notable assemblage of talent. And at the top of the list of pitchers sits future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw.

Of course, that statement comes with some caveats. In particular, Kershaw will need to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his deal. While that once seemed a foregone conclusion, Kershaw has not been quite his vintage self this season — or, in truth, in the campaign prior. With the backdrop of ongoing back problems, there are undeniably some cracks in the armor.

If Kershaw’s recent form has betrayed his mortality, though, it has still also illuminated his ongoing excellence and value. After all, in his 312 1/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season, he has compiled a 2.36 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Even with the reduction in his velocity and swinging-strike rate on display this year, Kershaw has been among the most effective starters in baseball. And the years of unquestioned dominance that came before still represent an important background factor.

All things considered, there’s not much reason to think that Kershaw can’t beat 2/$65MM in free agency. Whether he reaches the open market could still be in question, to be sure. It’s not hard to imagine a new agreement of some kind with the Los Angeles organization coming together before Kershaw is forced to decide on the opt-out clause (or, if he does exercise it, before qualifying offer decisions are finalized). Then again, he and the team know much more about his medical situation than do the rest of us, so perhaps there’s still some possibility he’ll simply opt into the remainder of the deal.

Regardless of how it comes to pass, Kershaw will presumably end up with a more-or-less market-driven rate of pay, even if a deal comes with the Dodgers before he’s formally a free agent. After all, Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management no doubt have a good idea what they think he’s worth, as does the L.A. front office.

For those of us on the outside looking in, it’s a bit more difficult to gauge. The Dodgers and others will surely be stingy, in particular, with the length of the commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. But the focus here will be on the total cash posted rather than on how many seasons it’ll be spread over. Knowing what we know now, and presuming Kershaw finishes the season at his current trajectory and without any significant new injury issues, which level of total guarantee do you think he’ll sign at?

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