Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: October 3, 2018
Archives for 2018
Qualifying Offer Value Set At $17.9 Million
The qualifying offer value for the upcoming offseason has been set at $17.9MM, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That value, which is determined by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, represents a $500K increase from last offseason’s mark of $17.4MM.
Any team wishing to receive draft compensation for the loss of a free agent will first have to make that free agent a one-year offer worth that $17.9MM value. Qualifying offer recipients will have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject the offer and are free to talk with other clubs during that window as they get an early sense of their market value. If a player accepts, he is considered signed for the 2019 season at that rate. Like other free-agent signings, that player would be ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15 of the following season.
Only players who spent the entire 2018 season with the same organization are eligible to receive a qualifying offer; midseason trade acquisitions and signings cannot receive one. Additionally, the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement also added the stipulation that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career. That distinction primarily impacts Nelson Cruz, as the rest of the players who have received previous qualifying offers have either already been traded (e.g. Daniel Murphy) or haven’t performed well enough to be a candidate for a second qualifying offer anyhow (e.g. Neil Walker). Cruz would quite likely have been a candidate to receive a second qualifying offer, but the new CBA makes that impossible.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a recent look at the upcoming free-agent class, writing that Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw (if/when he exercises his opt-out clause), A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal can be considered among the locks to receive a qualifying offer (I’d agree with all of those and add Charlie Morton to that bucket as well). Mark also took an in-depth look at a number of borderline cases throughout the league.
Draft compensation under the new system is more complicated than it was under the 2012-16 CBA, as both luxury tax spending and revenue sharing are now factored in to determine the specific penalty and compensation associated with qualified free agents. Each team’s top overall draft pick is protected, but teams with multiple first-round picks can lose their late first-rounders in some cases. Here’s a crash course/reminder.
For teams that signs a qualified free agent…
- A team that received revenue sharing the previous season will forfeit its third-highest selection upon. Signing a second qualified would result in the loss of that team’s fourth-highest selection. Signing a third would result in the loss of its fifth-highest selection.
- A team that did not receive revenue sharing and also did not pay any luxury tax penalties would lose its second-highest selection as well as $500K of the league’s allotted international bonus pool. Signing additional qualified free agents would result in forfeiting the third-highest selection and another $500K of international allotments.
- A team that paid luxury tax penalties must forfeit both its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2019 draft and forfeit $1MM of international funds. Signing a second would result in the loss of that team’s third- and sixth-highest picks, plus another $1MM in international funds.
For teams who lose qualified free agents…
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
Reds Outright Gabriel Guerrero, Tim Federowicz
The Reds announced Wednesday that catcher Tim Federowicz and outfielder Gabriel Guerrero have cleared waivers and been outrighted from the 40-man roster. Both will likely become free agents.
Guerrero, 24, was once considered to be one of the Mariners’ best prospects but has seen his production evaporate since reaching the Double-A level. Since 2015, he’s been with the Mariners, D-backs and Reds organizations but never produced at an elite clip in the minors. The Reds did give him his first taste of the Majors in 2018, and he managed to connect on his first big league homer in a brief 14-game stint with Cincinnati. On the whole, though, he went 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first MLB cup of coffee. There’s certainly reason to believe that a player with Guerrero’s bloodline can improve; he’s the nephew of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and the cousin of Blue Jays uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The 31-year-old Federowicz, meanwhile, went 2-for-6 with a homer in his five games as a Red this season and also spent 10 games with the Astros, where he batted .206/.229/.294 in 35 plate appearances. Dating back to 2011, “Fed-Ex” has appeared in the Majors in every season except 2015, serving mostly as a backup and a short-term replacement in the case of injury. He’s a career .199/.247/.323 hitter in 360 MLB plate appearances but does boast a tremendous .303/.374/.501 batting line in nearly 1900 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Addison Russell Receives 40-Game Suspension
3:20pm: The League announced that Russell has been suspended without pay for 40 games. That suspension is retroactive to Sept. 21, the date he was placed on administrative leave. That ban will carry over into 2019, rendering him ineligible to play for the season’s first month or so. Russell will not appeal the suspension, per the announcement.
3:06pm: Cubs shortstop Addison Russell will be suspended under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago (via Twitter). The precise length of his ban is not yet certain, though Rogers suggests it’ll be between 25 and 40 games.
Russell, 24, was placed on administrative leave in September after allegations of physical and verbal abuse were brought forth by his ex-wife, Melisa Reidy. Commissioner Rob Manfred had already conducted an investigation into Russell last year after a friend of his ex-wife made allegations at the time, via social media. Reidy didn’t cooperate with the investigation at the time — a decision which she explained to Rogers in an interview that is well worth a full read for those who’ve yet to gather the full details of this situation.
The 25- to 40-game length of the ban will make Russell’s suspension one of the lighter punishments handed out by Manfred under the current policy. Earlier this season, Roberto Osuna received a 75-game suspension, and other high-profile cases have included Hector Olivera (82 games), Jose Reyes (51 games) and Aroldis Chapman (30 games). Suspensions for Olivera, Reyes and Osuna all came after criminal charges were pressed, however (resulting in jail time for Olivera; charges against Reyes were eventually dropped, while Osuna agreed to a one-year peace bond as the charge was withdrawn).
Criminal charges have not yet been brought forth against Russell, and there’s no clear indication that they ever will. Regardless, the suspension severely clouds Russell’s future with the organization. The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney recently reported (subscription required) that there has been a “sense around the team” that Russell has played his final game as a Cub.
Should the Cubs elect to retain Russell, he’ll be under club control through the 2021 season (this suspension’s length won’t impact his free-agent timeline). He’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.2MM salary after posting a dismal .250/.317/.340 batting line through 465 games. If not, he can be non-tendered and sent out into free agency, with Javier Baez likely sliding over to assume regular shortstop duties.
Quick Hits: Mets, Melvin, Nationals, Lucroy, Dunning
The Mets will interview former Rangers and Brewers GM Doug Melvin about their open general manager’s position sometime in the next week or two, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Melvin, who has been a senior advisor for Milwaukee since being moved out of the GM role in August 2015, was first linked to the Mets by Fancred’s Jon Heyman back in August. With Mets owner Fred Wilpon reportedly looking to hire a seasoned executive with a scouting background, Melvin’s 30 years of front office experience would certainly seem to make him a solid candidate, though COO Jeff Wilpon is seemingly more keen on a more analytical mind in New York’s baseball ops department. Up to a dozen “serious candidates” are reportedly under consideration for the Mets’ GM job, however, so Melvin still faces tough competition.
Some more from around the baseball world as we prepare for the AL Wild Card game….
- The Nationals are parting ways with assistant GM Bob Miller, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) reports that the Nats didn’t renew Miller’s contract. Miller has worked in Washington for the last four seasons, and has longstanding ties with Nats GM Mike Rizzo when the two worked together with in Diamondbacks organization. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link) describes Miller as Rizzo’s “right-hand man” in the front office and the team’s “rules guru,” also crediting Miller with the trade that brought Trea Turner and Joe Ross to the Nationals.
- Jonathan Lucroy didn’t contribute much at the plate for the Athletics this season, but the signing of the veteran catcher has become a major move in Oakland’s run to the AL wild card game, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Thanks to an up-and-down 2017 season, a dropoff in his framing numbers, and perhaps just the overall chilled free agent market, Lucroy had to settle for a one-year, $6.5MM deal from the A’s in March. Catcher became a need for the A’s once Bruce Maxwell fell out of favor with the team, and Lucroy’s veteran knowledge became particularly important given the number of young arms that ended up on the roster due to injuries and a focus on the bullpen. “I don’t even know the numbers of starters that we’ve gone through with unfortunate injuries,” closer Blake Treinen said. “And then the amount of arms that we had in the bullpen through September, trying to keep hitters off balance, knowing what everybody has, trying to read their stuff on that day. [Lucroy has] been pretty solid, to say the least, for us back there, and it’s a good luxury to have.” Lucroy’s mediocre offensive numbers will limit his free agent market and keep him in Oakland’s price range, so it will be interesting to see if the A’s could pursue a reunion with the catcher in free agency this winter.
- White Sox pitching prospect Dane Dunning’s season was cut short by an elbow sprain, but after rehabbing the injury, Dunning tells The Athletic’s James Fegan (subscription required) that he is hopeful of avoiding surgery altogether. Dunning may even get a few instruction league innings under his belt just to test his arm before the offseason. The 29th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Dunning came to Chicago as part of the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals, and his prospect stock has since been on the rise. He cracked the preseason top-100 prospect lists from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and MLB.com prior to 2018, and then posted a 2.71 ERA, 3.85 K/BB rate, and 10.4 K/9 over 86 1/3 combined innings at A-ball and Double-A this season.
Cubs Expected To Keep Joe Maddon For 2019 Season
Though the Cubs’ postseason run ended earlier than the team hoped, the loss in last night’s NL wild card game doesn’t seem like it will lead to a change in the dugout. The Cubs are expected to retain manager Joe Maddon through the 2019 season, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports.
Maddon is under contract through next year, in what will be the final season of the five-year, $25MM deal he signed to come to Chicago in October 2014. MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reported earlier today, however, that a contract extension doesn’t appear to be coming in the near future, nor have Maddon’s representatives recently inquired about a new deal with Cubs management.
It’s hard to argue with Maddon’s track record since coming to Wrigleyville, as the Cubs have a 387-261 record and four postseason appearances in his four seasons as manager, highlighted by the curse-breaking 2016 World Series championship. Despite all this success, there have been whispers that Maddon and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein “are not always on the same page,” as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal phrased it earlier today. Some of Maddon’s in-game tactics led to some criticism from pundits and fans over the years, and Rosenthal’s subscription-only piece outlines some of the instances where Epstein could have found fault with Maddon’s decisions this year, such as possibly overusing Brandon Morrow.
While it seems as if Maddon could be entering the 2019 season as a “lame duck” manager, such a situation might not be unusual for either side. Maddon said last winter that he doesn’t broach the subject of contract extensions, as “I believe if we take care of our own business properly, that’s the kind of stuff that takes care of itself.” As Rosenthal noted, Epstein himself (plus GM Jed Hoyer and VP of scouting/player development Jason McLeod) was a lame duck for much of 2016, which was the last year of his initial five-year contract with the Cubs. It wasn’t until September of that year that extensions were announced for all three parties, so it perhaps wouldn’t be a surprise if Epstein and Cubs ownership waited until later in the 2019 season to approach Maddon about a new contract. Or, conversely, waiting could give both sides more time to decide if they want to continue their relationship.
Orioles Part Ways With Buck Showalter
The Orioles won’t be retaining manager Buck Showalter, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). Showalter will be leaving the organization entirely, and not taking on any other role in the front office.
Showalter’s contract was set to officially expire this month, and it was widely expected that the O’s would be making a change in the dugout in the wake of their nightmarish 115-loss season. There was some speculation that Showalter could be offered another job to remain in the organization, and while Showalter and O’s management had talks about that possibility in the past, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets that “discussions never got to that point” in Showalter’s meeting with team ownership today.
The Orioles’ hideous 2018 performance dragged Showalter’s record as the team’s manager under the .500 mark, ending his tenure at 669-684. While the Showalter era ended on a very sour note, however, it was under his leadership that the Orioles enjoyed a big turnaround. After taking over as manager partway through the 2010 season, Showalter stewarded the team through one more losing season in 2011, extending Baltimore’s stretch of sub-.500 seasons to fourteen. That all changed in 2012, when the O’s made a surprise run to the AL Wild Card game and defeated the Rangers to earn a slot in the ALDS.
2012 was the first five straight non-losing seasons (the club went 81-81 in 2015) for the Orioles, a stretch that included another wild card appearance in 2016 and an AL East title in 2014. That 2014 team was Showalter’s best, a squad that won 96 games and defeated the Tigers in the ALDS to notch Baltimore’s first postseason series victory since 1997. All three of Showalter’s playoff teams in Baltimore outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record, which is a good indicator of Showalter’s ability in managing a team that often seemed to catch opponents and pundits by surprise. While the O’s had such talents as Manny Machado and Adam Jones anchoring the lineup, plus the likes of Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis contributing big seasons at the plate, Showalter navigated his team to success with a focus on slugging, defense, and a quality bullpen, despite a constant lack of stability in the starting rotation.
Showalter has now concluded four different managerial stints with as many different teams, having previously stewarded the Yankees from 1992-95, the Diamondbacks from 1998-2000, and the Rangers from 2003-06. In each of those cases, Showalter helped take a struggling team (or, in Arizona’s case, an expansion team) to success, so he could stand out as a logical candidate for teams looking for a new manager this offseason. The Reds, for instance, seem to be targeting experienced names as they look to take the next step in their rebuild, so Showalter could potentially end up on their radar screen. The Blue Jays, Twins, Rangers, and Angels are the other clubs with managerial vacancies, plus more openings could still emerge. Of course, this assumes that the 62-year-old Showalter is still interested in managing, as he has been rumored to have interest in front office positions in the past.
Recent reports have indicated that Dan Duquette could stay on as Baltimore’s executive VP of baseball operations, and since Showalter was already in place before Duquette was hired by the Orioles in November 2011, this could be Duquette’s first chance at hiring his own manager (which is no small thing, as there have long been rumors of friction between Duquette and Showalter). It remains to be seen exactly what the Orioles braintrust of Duquette, Brady Anderson and the Angelos family will look for in a new manager, though with the O’s just entering what could be a lengthy rebuild, it seems likely that a new skipper will need to be experienced in developing and teaching young players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason, Manager Search
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins discussed some of his team’s offseason plans in an end-of-season chat with reporters (including the Athletic’s John Lott, and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith) on Tuesday. Some of the highlights…
- The team has been in contact with a few managerial candidates already, though the Jays are still “gathering information” on their list of candidates, Atkins said. Initial phone interviews with 10 or more candidates will begin within the week, with a final field of around five candidates then selected for in-person interviews with various members of the Jays organization. The connection between the manager and the franchise as a whole is an important factor, as Atkins describes his ideal hire as possessing an “understanding what it takes for communication to keep not just [a] 25-man roster, but also the 40-man roster, the 200 minor-league players, the 100-plus scouts, the 100-plus coaches and medical staff people pulling in one direction and feeling connected. That person has to be an organizational leader and spokesperson, not just a leader of the 25-man clubhouse.”
- Bench coach DeMarlo Hale and Double-A manager John Schneider are two of the in-house candidates, and it seems as if the Blue Jays are leaning towards people with some type of managing or coaching background. The new Jays manager “will have experience leading,” Atkins said. “That is something extremely important for us.” The new manager must also be adept at requesting and interpreting the available analytical information, with Atkins specifying that while the manager (and not the front office) will still handle all in-game decision-making. Beyond these requirements, the Blue Jays will “cast as big a net as time and bandwidth can handle” in looking for a new manager, Atkins said.
- The Jays will be open to re-signing Marco Estrada or possibly bringing back J.A. Happ, who was dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Atkins said that Toronto will first focus on the trade market before looking at free agents, however, and “We’d be looking for complementary pieces, and I think the focus would be slightly more short-term.” This would seem to count out a pursuit of Happ, who wouldn’t require a long contract (he turns 36 later this month), but his solid performance will likely price him out of the Jays’ range.
- There will be a focus on adding arms to the organization, with Atkins noting “we need to turn some of our position-player depth into pitching. That doesn’t mean we won’t trade from our young core or guys that haven’t even gotten to the major leagues.” Some of the names on the move could be prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, as the Jays have a 40-man roster crunch forthcoming and not everyone can be protected. As it is, Atkins expects to lose at least one player in the Rule 5 Draft in December.
- Beyond pitching, Atkins said Toronto will also prioritize improving the team’s poor defense and baserunning.
- After Troy Tulowitzki spent the entire 2018 season on the disabled list, Atkins said that the veteran shortstop’s status for 2019 “starts with health.” When asked if Tulowitzki can still be an everyday player amidst the Jays’ younger infield options, Atkins answered “If Tulo’s healthy and performing at a very high rate, then yes. If he’s healthy and his performance isn’t to the calibre that major-league environments demand, then no.” Tulowitzki has been adamant about remaining at shortstop, though it remains to be seen if he can handle any position at all given his lengthy injury history over the years; in addition to missing 2018, Tulowitzki averaged just 98 games a season from 2012-17. Obviously Tulowitzki has virtually no trade value in the wake of his lost year, so the Jays might have to consider releasing him and eating the $38MM still owed to him through 2020.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Showalter, Duquette, O’s, Brasier
While many simply point to the Yankees’ payroll as the reason for their success, general manager Brian Cashman has spent over a decade quietly assembling an analytics department that rivals any in baseball, as Marc Carig and Eno Sarris detail in a fascinating piece for The Athletic (subscription required). Current assistant GM Michael Fishman was hired as the Yankees’ first full-time analyst in 2005, and today, New York has an estimated 20 employees on their analytics team. This ties them with the Dodgers as the largest such staff in baseball by Carig and Sarris’ count, though they note that teams are notoriously secretive in providing any details about their information-gathering practices. The increased focus on analytical data has impacted all levels of the baseball operations and scouting departments, with the results apparent in how the Yankees have built their outstanding bullpen, all their pitchers’ high velocity and spin rate on their four-seam fastballs, and in the sheer number of current Major League players that the Yankees originally signed or drafted.
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- We could know more about Buck Showalter’s future with the Orioles today, as The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (Twitter link) reports that the manager is expected to meet with ownership and the “sense is” Showalter will be offered some type of job to remain with the franchise. It isn’t clear if that job would be a front office role or if Showalter could continue on as manager in the wake of Baltimore’s 115-loss season.
- Questions also surround the job status of Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette, though Duquette didn’t give any hints about his situation, simply telling Dan Connolly (subscription-only piece) “that’s an appropriate question for ownership.” Though Duquette’s contract is up at the end of October, he is still proceeding as if he’ll still be with the organization in 2019. For instance, Duquette is considering joining at least five other Orioles talent evaluators in attending the showcase for top Cuban prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr., and Sandy Gaston on Friday. The O’s have been heavily linked to these youngsters due to the space in the team’s international bonus pool, which Connolly estimates as roughly $6MM available to be spent.
- Hard-throwing Ryan Brasier has become a key contributor to the Red Sox bullpen, posting a 1.60 ERA, 4.14 K/BB rate and 7.8 K/9 over 33 2/3 frames for the AL East champs. It has been quite the showing for the unheralded 31-year-old, who had just nine innings of MLB experience (with the Angels in 2013) prior to this season. As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings (subscription required) writes, it was less than a year ago that a homesick Brasier was pitching in Japan and intent on returning to North America for the 2018 campaign. He sent e-mails to all 30 MLB teams over the offseason in search of a job, finally landing a minor league deal with the Sox, and then excelling after his contract was selected in July.
Cubs Notes: Maddon, Hamels, Chavez
The offseason introspection has already begun for the Cubs in the wake of last night’s 13-inning loss to the Rockies in the NL wild card game, and the team’s early exit from the postseason caught many inside and outside the Cubs organization by surprise. Here is some of the initial aftermath of Chicago’s loss, and what questions the club will be facing this winter…
- One of the more pressing matters could be Joe Maddon’s future, as the manager’s contract is up after the 2019 season. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), “talk has persisted within the industry that [Theo] Epstein and Maddon are not always on the same page,” and the Cubs’ elimination could allow a reason for a change in the dugout. As Rosenthal notes, however, Maddon did well to lead the Cubs to 95 wins despite a number of down years from several hitters and a lack of production (either due to injury or under-performance) from Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, and Brandon Morrow — the front office’s three big signings from the 2017-18 offseason.
- Maddon received votes of confidence from players such as Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Javy Baez, who all praised the manager to reporters (including Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times). Despite the Cubs’ issues this season, Rizzo said that “we still figured out a way to win. That’s all credit to [Maddon]. Without his leadership here, guys aren’t playing the way they play. [Rookie] David Bote is not coming up here and playing the way he plays without Joe’s leadership.”
- Cole Hamels is hoping the Cubs pick up his $20MM option for 2019, telling The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter link) and other reporters “Hopefully, I did everything I can to convince them that [exercising the option] would be something that would be valuable.” Few trade deadline acquisitions had a bigger impact than Hamels this season, as the southpaw posted a 2.36 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 3.22 K/BB rate over 76 1/3 IP after coming to Chicago in a deal with the Rangers. The $20MM club option can be bought out for $6MM, leaving the Cubs with a $14MM decision on the veteran lefty’s services. The Cubs already have over $70.5MM committed to Darvish, Chatwood, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana (assuming Quintana’s own club option is exercised) next season, though even with that heavy investment in the rotation, one would think Chicago is leaning towards retaining Hamels given how well he pitched.
- Another midseason trade acquisition was even more adamant about returning to the Cubs, as ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera reports (via Twitter) that Jesse Chavez was telling teammates “If I’m not wearing this [uniform] next year, I’m done.” Chavez, also acquired from the Rangers in a separate July trade, was almost untouchable over 39 innings out of Chicago’s bullpen, posting an eye-popping 1.15 ERA and 8.4 K/BB rate, striking out 42 batters and issuing just five walks. Chavez turned 35 last August, though it would be surprising to see him hang up his glove if a return to Chicago wasn’t in the cards, as one would imagine several teams would have interest in the impending free agent. It could also be that Chavez was simply speaking in the heat of the moment, after the grueling elimination game.
