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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years.  However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]

“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies.  The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club.  Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.

Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties.  Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline.  Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances.  He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days.  Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis.  Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense.  Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup.  After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.

The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right.  Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+.  That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016.  Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since.  He was limited to just 102 games this year.  Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him.  Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date.  Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.

Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position.  Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again.  Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season.  Baez fits well at any infield position.  He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate.  The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract.  Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line.  The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.

Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM deal.  MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM.  Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger?  With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes.  Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time.  The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold.  Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.

Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado.  Which player is the better fit?  My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras).   Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras.  Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.

The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted.  Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop.  Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field.  That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions.  I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.

Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios.  Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder.  Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability.  However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon.  There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.

Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year.  Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties.  Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less.  He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder.  The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year.  Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons.  It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter.  Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.

Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions.  They’re just the best ones.  Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster.  The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.

Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year.  Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know.  With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.”  The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident.  In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go.  We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.

Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation.  Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in.  Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow.  He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready.  The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract.  Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December.  He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.

While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood.  The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018.  In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings.  The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs.  Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s.  Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.

Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option.  Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas.  The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.

Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth.  In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies.  Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side.  Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs.  Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019.  The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio.  Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover.  The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario.  They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.

Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them.  From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing.  The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training.  Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen.  I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal).  One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.

The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019.  Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end.  My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.

Though most MLBTR readers graded the Cubs’ 2017-18 offseason an A or a B at the time, the first year results of those deals were quite poor.  The stakes might be higher this time around.  Now that expectations are sky-high, this year’s early playoff exit must be considered a disappointment.  The money involved could be bigger than ever and Epstein will be making decisions that have a large impact on whether his team can pull off another World Championship inside the three years of control remaining for Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Shortstop

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We’re crossing to the left side of the infield after recently running through the many options at second.

Teams In Need

The most obvious potential buyers at the shortstop position are the Phillies and Brewers. Both of these National League contenders have former top prospects available at the position, but thus far they haven’t really panned out.

There’s a clear opening at the position for the Padres and Tigers, but it’s far from evident that either team will make a significant acquisition. For the San Diego organization, it wouldn’t be surprising if they seek another gap-filler while waiting for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to finish his development. In Detroit, there’s perhaps an argument to be made for opportunism, especially if the club finds a chance to pick up a relatively youthful player for an appealing price tag.

It’s at least be arguable that the Diamondbacks ought to look to improve at shortstop (or, alternatively, second base), but that may not prove worthwhile if the organization decides on a sell-off. Likewise, the Marlins and Orioles could certainly stand to improve at the position but no doubt won’t be aggressively paying for near-term improvement.

The Yankees will at least need to bolster their depth to open the season following the announcement of Tommy John surgery for Didi Gregorius. Whether that opens the door for a bigger move remains to be seen. Corey Seager will have had much more time to recover from his own TJS, so there’s not much reason to think the Dodgers have a real need at the position.

Though the White Sox got improved glovework from Tim Anderson, and are committed to him through an extension, perhaps there’s still room for a move there. There’s greater cause to seek improvement in Oakland, given the team’s competitive outlook, though there’s less of a case for bumping Marcus Semien after a solid overall campaign driven by his own strides on defense. Teams like the Braves and Pirates have existing options but perhaps shouldn’t be ruled out entirely from the market.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Manny Machado is obviously the prize on the infield market this winter. It remains to be seen whether he’ll insist on playing short — and, if so, how that’ll impact demand. On the off chance that Elvis Andrus opts out of his deal with the Rangers, he’d surely be able to secure a regular job even in spite of a tough season. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see any other market entrants as truly everyday players in 2019.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: That’s not to say that there aren’t some other free agents who have been regulars in the not-so-distant past. Jordy Mercer, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, and even Alcides Escobar have racked up quite a few plate appearances in recent seasons. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising for one or more of those glove-first players to see action in 120+ games in 2019, though that’ll likely occur with a second-division club. A slate of other players — Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie — will reach the open market with much more impressive hitting resumes. In each case, though, it would rate as a surprise if they were tasked primarily with playing short rather than other spots on the infield.

Depth/Bounceback Options: Pete Kozma, Dixon Machado, Cliff Pennington, Jose Reyes, Eric Sogard

Trade Targets

The Blue Jays have an interesting mix of solid/youthful (Aledmys Diaz, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Richard Urena), injury-plagued/aging (Troy Tulowitzki), and fast-rising/unproven (Bo Bichette) options on hand. Whether they’ll choose to deal from this group, which could also fan out across the Toronto infield and farm system, remains to be seen. The Phillies could elect to part with J.P. Crawford or Scott Kingery, depending upon how they tackle an interesting upcoming offseason. There’s also some potential extra depth in Texas, though the Andrus contract (4/$58MM with opt-out) isn’t a positive-value asset and the Rangers have plenty of ways to find playing time for Jurickson Profar.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have yet to figure out what to do with Addison Russell, who’ll sit out the first month or so of the 2019 season owing to a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy. He’s projected to earn $4.3MM and is coming off of his worst season at the plate. If the Chicago organization decides it’s time to move on, other clubs that like Russell as a player will have to contemplate his suspension as well as the allegations of emotional and physical abuse that led to it.

CC Sabathia Undergoes Knee Surgery

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Yankees southpaw CC Sabathia underwent knee surgery today, Jack Curry of YES Network was among those to cover on Twitter. It does not sound as if the news will impact the veteran hurler’s plans to pitch in 2019.

GM Brian Cashman says it’s the same procedure that Sabathia underwent this time last year, though it’s tough to find documentation of that. If Sabathia went under the knife in 2017, it may have been a repeat of a 2016 cleanup procedure. Or, perhaps, that two-year-old operation is what Cashman was referring to.

Regardless, the prior work did not prevent Sabathia from turning in a third-consecutive productive campaign. The 38-year-old has not tallied big innings totals of late, but it’s hard to turn up your nose at the output, particularly given his age. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, Sabathia has spun 481 1/3 frames of 3.76 ERA ball with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

Most importantly, those solid results have come without any significant injury troubles. Though Sabathia has taken some time off here and there, he has averaged 29 starts annually since a 2014 campaign that was cut short by knee surgery. In that light, perhaps, the newest procedure represents just another part of an ongoing maintenance regimen that has proved to be successful.

Surgery aside, whether or not another reunion is to occur isn’t yet clear. But Sabathia certainly gave the Yanks everything they hoped for when they promised him $10MM for a single-season term last winter. And with the club making clear they’re ready to move on from rotation mate Sonny Gray, it seems there’ll be plenty of room for Sabathia to fit in the payroll and the rotation if the club so wishes.

Braves Notes: Snitker, Markakis, Albies

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The Braves are planning to offer manager Brian Snitker a new contract, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes in this week’s notes column. Soon to turn 63, Snitker took over as manager on an interim basis back in 2016 after the Braves dismissed Fredi Gonzalez. There were ups and downs during the first two seasons of his tenure, but the ’18 ballclub outpaced expectations by winning 90 games and securing an NL East division title. Snitker’s current contract only runs through the end of the month, and it’s not yet clear how long of a deal the Braves will put on the table.

A bit more out of Atlanta…

  • Snitker held an extensive chat with reporters after the club’s exit from the postseason, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to cover. The skipper says he’d like to stay in his post for “a few more years.” It’s not hard to see why, as there’s considerable excitement for the future in Atlanta. Of course, as Snitker also noted, there’s still work to do for the club to reach its potential. “We’ve just got to continue to work to get stronger with the bullpen depth, the bench and things like that,” he said. “We’re not a finished product by any means. There’s a lot of young players on our team — position players and pitchers — that will take steps to get there.”
  • Heyman also reports that the Braves are not currently planning on issuing a qualifying offer to right fielder Nick Markakis. The 34-year-old veteran enjoyed his most productive season since 2012, hitting .297/.366/.440 with 14 home runs, 43 doubles and a pair of triples in 705 plate appearances while playing in all 162 games for the Braves this season. It’s worth noting, though, that Markakis’s season was largely fueled by a five-week power surge early in the year. He homered seven times in his first 160 plate appearances and then went on to hit .285/.350/.407 with seven homers in his next 545 PAs. That’s certainly solid production, but it’s more in line with Markakis’ three prior seasons in Atlanta (.280/.357/.386). Given the manner in which aging corner outfielders have struggled in free agency in recent seasons, it’s not entirely surprising that the front office wouldn’t want to risk a $17.9MM offer.
  • Second baseman Ozzie Albies also got off to an incredibly impressive start in 2018, but struggled through a terrible second half of the season at the plate. Still, as Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, Snitker voiced confidence in the youngster’s ability to develop into a consistent threat at the plate. “I have every confidence, and I think everybody does, in him as a player,” said Snitker. “He’s got the skill set. It’s sometimes not a bad thing that you kind of get sobered up a little bit. That’s part of it. And it takes awhile. You just have to have patience with these guys.” Albies, still just 21 years of age, hit just .254/.296/.409 from May 1 through season’s end and struggled even more mightily when looking solely at his post-All-Star break split: .226/.282/.342.

Yankees Will Shop Sonny Gray This Offseason

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Sonny Gray’s tenure with the Yankees hasn’t panned out nearly as well as the organization had hoped, and general manager Brian Cashman candidly told reporters Friday that he plans to explore trade scenarios this offseason (Twitter link via Newsday’s David Lennon). “We’re entering the winter open-minded to relocation,” Cashman said of Gray. “…It’s probably best to try somewhere else.”

It’s highly atypical to see a baseball executive display that level of candor when discussing a potential trade of a player, but the writing has been on the wall for quite some time now. Gray was dropped from the team’s rotation amid considerable struggles this summer, and the Yankees didn’t carry him on their postseason roster.

Acquired in a high-profile trade that sent Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian to the Athletics in July 2017, Gray gave the Yankees 65 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA ball down the stretch that season. He was far more homer-prone than he’d been in Oakland — perhaps to be expected given the radical shift in his home park — but the 2018 season was an ugly one for Gray. In 130 1/3 innings this season, he posted a 4.90 ERA with a career-worst 3.94 BB/9 mark and a career-high eight hit batters.

To his credit, Gray notched an 8.49 K/9 mark, maintained the velocity on his fastball (93.3 mph average), generated a solid 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate and induced grounders at a characteristically strong 50 percent clip. Nearly all of his struggles were confined to pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he turned in a ghastly 6.98 ERA and allowed 11 home runs in 59 1/3 innings. When pitching away from the Bronx, Gray logged a strong 3.17 ERA and yielded just three homers in 71 innings of work.

That home/road disparity, paired with Gray’s track record and relative youth — he’ll turn 29 in November — should make him a popular buy-low candidate for teams looking to supplement their rotation. He’s only controlled for one more season and comes with a projected arbitration salary of $9.1MM (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, Gray entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA and peripheral stats that largely backed up that mark. The former No. 18 overall draft pick was an All-Star in 2015 and finished third in American League Cy Young voting that season when he tossed 208 innings (his second consecutive 200-inning season) with a 2.73 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He dealt with shoulder and forearm issues in 2016-17 but has avoided the disabled list in his time with the Yankees.

Marlins Outright Six Players

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The Marlins announced Friday that right-handers Tyler Cloyd, James Needy and Javy Guerra, left-hander Chris O’Grady, infielder Christopher Bostick and outfielder Rafael Ortega have all been outrighted off the 40-man roster after clearing waivers (O’Grady was first reinstated from the 60-day DL).

Cloyd, 31, allowed 17 runs in 17 2/3 innings for the Fish in his largest slate of big league work since the 2013 campaign with the Phillies. The 32-year-old Guerra (33 on Halloween) was unable to repeat the success he had with the 2017 Marlins, as he was clobbered for a 5.55 ERA in 35 2/3 innings (albeit with a more encouraging 30-to-12 K/BB ratio). O’Grady pitched just seven innings in his second season with the Fish and has a 4.73 ERA with 38 strikeouts against 22 walks in 40 Major League innings. Needy, meanwhile, did not pitch in 2018 after a solid 2017 campaign and also missed the 2016 season due to injury.

As for the position players, the 25-year-old Bostick was acquired from the Pirates for cash in August but saw just 16 plate appearances in the Majors. He’s a .256/.360/.326 hitter in a tiny sample of 50 plate appearances as a big leaguer and a .275/.337/.391 hitter in 1189 Triple-A plate appearances. Ortega, 27, logged 143 plate appearances with the Marlins this season and batted .233/.287/.271. Like Bostick, he has limited MLB experience but a solid track record in Triple-A (.299/.368/.423).

Twins Outright Gregorio Petit

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The Twins have outrighted infielder Gregorio Petit off the 40-man roster, per the Triple-A International League transactions page. He’ll likely become a free agent and seek another minor league deal this winter.

Petit, 33, batted .246/.313/.279 with a pair of doubles and three steals in two stints with Minnesota this season, appearing in 26 games and tallying 67 trips to the plate. That marked his sixth season of big league experience, having previously appeared with the A’s, Angels, Astros and Yankees. In all, Petit is a career .249/.294/.343 hitter in 493 Major League plate appearances and a .267/.316/.366 hitter in an even 3700 Triple-A plate appearances. Most of his career has been spent as a shortstop, though he has over 2000 professional innings at second base and nearly 1500 innings at third base as well.

AL Notes: Salazar, Carrasco, Smoak, Didi

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Indians righty Danny Salazar is slated to begin throwing next month, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). At the moment, the club isn’t certain whether it’ll utilize the hurler as a starter or reliever, though it does sound as if the plan is to tender him a contract. Salazar will almost certainly command the same $5MM salary he did this year after sitting out all of 2018 with shoulder issues. That’s a decent bit of payroll to stake on a return to form, though Salazar has real upside on the mound and will also remain controllable for the 2020 season.

Here’s more from Cleveland and the rest of the American League …

  • Speaking of payroll planning, the Indians will need to budget for a slight boost to the salary for fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco. As Bastian notes on Twitter, the value on the club option in Carrasco’s extension rose by $750K (to $9.75MM) due to his fourth-place placement in the 2017 Cy Young voting. It’s not entirely clear from what’s known of Carrasco’s contract whether that prior voting performance also operates to boost the value of his 2020 option, which comes at a $9.5MM base price point.
  • It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays will have to open their wallets a bit wider to hang onto first baseman Justin Smoak. By virtue of topping 1,100 total plate appearances over the past two seasons, he has boosted his 2019 club option value from $6MM to $8MM. That still seems to be a reasonable rate of pay for a switch-hitter who has carried a .256/.353/.495 batting line and launched 63 home runs since the start of the 2017 campaign. Smoak could well profile as a trade candidate, depending upon how the Toronto front office decides to approach the offseason.
  • Elsewhere in the AL East, the Yankees face a tough question on a player entering his final season of control. Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team ought to strongly consider working out an extension with shortstop Didi Gregorius. Sherman wonders whether the recent Jean Segura contract (five years, $70MM plus option) might serve as a starting point in talks, rightly suggesting that it may well cost a bit more to lock up Gregorius. The 28-year-old is projected to earn $12.4MM in his final trip through arbitration and is a half-season closer to free agency than was Segura. He’s also fresh off of his best season, having posted a .268/.335/.494 slash with 27 home runs in 569 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances could also be considered for long-term deals, Sherman opines.

David Robertson To Be Self-Represented In Free Agency

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In an interesting bit of free-agent news, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that veteran reliever David Robertson plans to represent himself in free agency this offseason.

The move comes as a surprise for the still-excellent hurler, who is wrapping up a four-year, $46MM contract. At the time, only Jonathan Papelbon and B.J. Ryan had secured larger guarantees as relievers. Even in the four years that have followed, only Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon and Wade Davis have landed larger total guarantees.

There’s little in terms of recent precedent for players representing themselves in major negotiations. Huston Street was self-represented when he negotiated his final contract with the Angels, signing for two years and $18MM. Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez, meanwhile, reportedly may have negotiated the bulk of his extension with Pittsburgh himself; Vazquez switched representation on multiple occasions in the year preceding that deal, with one player rep telling MLBTR at the time that Vazquez had been with as many as four or five different agencies in the calendar year leading up to his extension.

Digression aside, the 33-year-old Robertson (34 next April) will head into free agency with yet another strong case for a multi-year deal. While he won’t reach the $46MM heights of his most recent contract given his age, Robertson is still fresh off a quality 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 69 2/3 innings. He kept his ERA south of 3.50 and averaged at least 10.8 punchouts per nine innings in all four seasons of his expiring four-year pact, and his 2017 season — 1.84 ERA, 12.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.57 FIP, 2.76 xFIP — was nothing short of outstanding.

Robertson’s 92.6 mph average fastball in 2018 was actually a slight bit better than it’s been in recent seasons, though he saw his opponents’ swinging-strike rate, chase rate and hard-contact rate all trend in the wrong direction. Even with those dips, though, there’s little reason to expect anything less than a two-year deal for Robertson at a time when relievers figure to be more coveted than ever before. And given Robertson’s uncanny durability — no fewer than 60 games and 60 2/3 innings pitched in a season since 2010 — teams may well view him as a less-volatile option than several of his peers.

Cubs Will Not Retain Chili Davis As Hitting Coach

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The Cubs have announced that they have parted ways with hitting coach Chili Davis, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune was among those to tweet. The long-time major leaguer lasted only one year on the job.

Last fall, the Cubbies brought Davis in along with several other new additions to the staff of manager Joe Maddon. He had served with the Red Sox before that field staff was broken up when the Sox fired skipper John Farrell.

It seems the Cubs have yet to make final determinations on other staff members. Maddon himself is entering the final year of his contract, of course. Despite some ongoing murmurs of internal friction, all indications are that he’ll remain in charge of the dugout for at least one more campaign. (See here and here.)

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