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2018 Amateur Draft

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Lose By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland, and Carlos Santana received one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers from their teams earlier this week.  If those players sign elsewhere, here’s a look at the draft picks the signing team would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Nationals

If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2018 draft.  The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.  The Tigers are highly unlikely to sign one of the nine players listed above, but the other four teams might.  The Giants’ second-highest pick will fall somewhere in the 30s overall, so they stand to lose the most if they sign a qualified free agent.

Non-Disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax.  If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick.  These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

All Other Clubs: Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, Angels, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These nine remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the Phillies to sacrifice a pick in the 30s.

What happens if a team signs two of these nine free agents?  The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick.  For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks.  So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

RELATED: Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

First-Round Order For 2018 MLB Draft

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With the regular season now complete, we now know the order for the first round of the 2018 amateur draft.  As always, the draft order is determined by the reverse order of the standings.  When two or more teams share the same record, the team that had the lesser record in the 2016 season gets the higher pick in the 2018 draft.

This is why the Tigers will pick first overall in June, even though Detroit and San Francisco both finished with identical 64-98 records — the Tigers were 86-75 to the Giants’ 87-75 in 2016.  This will be the second time in franchise history that Detroit has held the 1-1 selection.  Back in 1997, Detroit took hard-throwing right-hander Matt Anderson first overall, a pick that ultimately proved to be a bust as Anderson struggled with injuries and control problems.

Here is the full draft order for all 30 teams…

1. Tigers (64-98)
2. Giants (64-98)
3. Phillies (66-96)
4. White Sox (67-95)
5. Reds (68-94)
6. Mets (70-92)
7. Padres (71-91)
8. Braves (72-90)
9. Athletics (75-87)
10. Pirates (75-87)
11. Orioles (75-87)
12. Blue Jays (76-86)
13. Marlins (77-85)
14. Mariners (78-84)
15. Rangers (78-84)
16. Rays (80-82)
17. Angels (80-82)
18. Royals (80-82)
19. Cardinals (83-79)
20. Twins (85-77)
21. Brewers (86-76)
22. Rockies (87-75)
23. Yankees (91-71)
24. Cubs (92-70)
25. Diamondbacks (93-69)
26. Red Sox (93-69)
27. Nationals (97-65)
28. Astros (101-61)
29. Indians (102-60)
30. Dodgers (104-58)

In past years, teams that signed a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would have to give up their first-round pick as compensation.  Under the new collective bargaining agreement, however, first rounders are now automatically protected.  The highest draft pick that a team could have to surrender in order to sign a QO free agent would be its second-highest selection (so either a first-round sandwich pick given as compensation for losing a QO free agent, or an actual second-rounder).

The full draft order won’t be known under all of the qualifying offer free agents have been signed.  The 16 teams who qualify for revenue-sharing can obtain a compensatory draft pick after the first round if any of their free agents rejects the QO and then signs elsewhere for $50MM or more in guaranteed money.  The Royals look like the most notable team to watch in this regard, with as many as three compensation picks potentially headed their way — Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas are all lined up to receive (and reject) qualifying offers and then get lucrative contracts on the open market.

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