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2018 Amateur Draft

Braves Fail To Reach Agreement With First-Round Pick Carter Stewart

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JULY 7: The “sense” is that Stewart will attend a junior college in Florida, not Mississippi State, Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs reports on Twitter. If that happens, Stewart will be eligible for next year’s draft, McDaniel adds.

JULY 6: The Braves and first-round draft choice Carter Stewart failed to put pen to paper in advance of today’s 5pm EST deadline, Jon Heyman of Fancred was first to tweet.

Stewart, a Florida high-schooler, entered the draft graded as one of the top eligible hurlers. He had dealt with a wrist injury late in the season, though it was not something that led to any expectations of a ding in his draft stock. Indeed, it seemed there was not much to worry about when the Braves took Stewart eighth overall.

Unfortunately, it seems that a closer look at the medicals has enhanced the concerns for the Atlanta organization. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that it was a “definite concern” for the Braves, noting that player and team never really were close on numbers entering the final signing day.

The eighth overall pick came with a $4,980,700 allocation. The Braves will only get a compensatory pick next year — at one slot lower than the existing selection (#9) — if they offered Stewart at least 40% of the slot value (i.e., $1,992,280).

The Braves kept their offer “a lot closer to the 40% threshold than to pick value,” according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), which explains why a deal did not come together. But that also indicates that enough cash was put on the table to ensure that the club will get another top-ten selection next year. Stewart will presumably honor his commitment to Mississippi State, though there’s no clear indication yet as to his immediate future.

Draft Notes: Orioles, Mariners, D’Backs, Signing Pools

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The signing period for 2018 draft picks came to an end yesterday, as teams had until 4pm CST to agree to contracts with players selected in last month’s amateur draft.  Here are some leftover items on players who did and didn’t end up inking deals.  Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…

  • The Orioles signed third-rounder Blaine Knight for a $1.1MM bonus, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski reported yesterday.  The bonus is nearly twice the $663.2K value assigned to the 87th overall pick, so Knight will receive a nice payday to begin his pro career.  Knight, a right-hander, was a big factor in Arkansas’ recent run to the College World Series, and his drop to the third round represents something of a bargain for the O’s — the pre-draft rankings had Knight no lower than 58th (from Fangraphs), with Baseball America rating him as the 36th-best prospect in this year’s class.
  • The Mariners also struck a late deal with a third-round pick, signing Florida State catcher Cal Raleigh to a deal with a $854K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (hat tip to MLB.com’s Greg Johns).  Seattle used its remaining pool space to land Raleigh on an above-slot deal, as the 90th overall selection carried a $632.7K slot price.  Baseball America was highest on Raleigh, ranking him as the 78th-best prospect and noting that a strong junior season helped him regain some draft stock after a mediocre sophomore year.
  • The Diamondbacks didn’t reach an agreement with 25th overall pick Matt McLain prior to yesterday’s deadline, with GM Mike Hazen sharing some general details about the situation to reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro).  Though the D’Backs offered the full slot price of $2,636,400, McLain went into the draft with a set price tag that he would need to forego his commitment to UCLA, it became clear that he was serious about going to college.  “Those things change sometimes.  In fact, they change a lot in a lot of cases,” Hazen said.  “The family changes their mind sometimes.  I think as you go through the summer, if school is becoming less of a reality, or you don’t want to go to school, then that number can drop sometimes.  We’ve had situations where it goes up in the other direction….Everything that was presented to us from Scott [McLain’s advisor Scott Boras] to the family was 100 percent accurate.  I really think that school became the driving factor in the decision.”
  • McLain was one of three first-rounders who didn’t sign, the highest total since the 2010 draft, as MLB.com’s Jim Callis noted as part of a roundup of stats from this year’s draft class.  Only four first-round picks in total had failed to sign in the previous six drafts, or since the league instituted the new bonus pool system for the draft.  Overall, 310 of the 314 players taken in the first 10 rounds eventually signed with their teams.  Callis also lists what each team spent on their picks; for comparison, here is the listing of what every team had available to spend in their original draft bonus pool.

Rays Sign No. 31 Pick Shane McClanahan

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10:29am: McClanahan himself announced (on Twitter) that he has indeed signed with the Rays.

10:20am: The Rays and first-round pick Shane McClanahan have finalized a late deal with roughly six hours to go until the deadline for draft picks to sign, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). McClanahan, a left-hander out of the Unversity of South Florida, will receive a $2,230,100 signing bonus that comes in ever so slightly north of his $2,224,400 slot value at No. 31 overall. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was the first to report that, after appearing to be at a potential impasse, the two sides were finally moving toward an agreement (Twitter link).

In securing a deal with McClanahan, the Rays have added arguably the top two left-handed arms in the entire 2018 draft class. No. 16 overall pick Matthew Liberatore was ranked among the top six prospects in the draft per each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Fangraphs, and McClanahan ranked as high as No. 8 at BA, No. 14 at MLB.com and No. 15 at ESPN.

McClanahan, 21, was a redshirt sophomore and as such had some degree of leverage over his situation, as he could’ve returned to USF for his junior season. Instead, he’ll bring a fastball that reaches triple digits and a potential plus changeup to the Rays’ farm system as he begins his pro career. The biggest concerns with McClanahan stem from a poor finish to his collegiate season in addition to the possibility that his slight frame and below-average control could force him into the bullpen at some point. However, a triple-digit lefty with the potential for a strong changeup makes for a plenty intriguing bullpen piece, and if he can indeed pan out as a starter, then the Rays may have gotten a pair of bargains with their top two picks in the ’18 draft.

Diamondbacks’ First-Round Pick Matt McLain Will Not Sign

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First-round pick Matt McLain has informed the Diamondbacks that he will attend UCLA rather than sign with them, reports Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). The D-backs offered McLain the full slot value of $2,636,400 for the No. 25 overall selection, according to Heyman, but it appears he’ll forgo that considerable sum to play collegiate ball.

McLain, a high school infielder out of California, went considerably higher than most pre-draft rankings had forecast. None of Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN or MLB.com ranked him inside the Top 50 players in the draft class, though he was generally slotted into the 50 to 70 range.

Reports on McLain agree that he was one of the most polished high school bats in the draft, though there were concerns about his size (5’10”, 175 pounds), lack of plus speed and the potential that he’d need to move off of shortstop. Reports from both MLB.com and ESPN noted that his strongest advocates likened him to Alex Bregman, and certainly the Diamondbacks appear to have been among those teams most bullish on him, based on the aggressive selection in the first round.

Because McLain won’t sign, the D-backs will lose that $2,636,400 from their bonus pool. They will, however, be awarded a compensatory selection at No. 26 overall in 2019. That won’t do their lackluster farm system any immediate favors, but it’ll give the D-backs more opportunity to be creative in next year’s draft. They’re now the second NL West team who’ve been spurned by their top pick; right-hander J.T. Ginn announced last night that he would attend Mississippi State rather than sign with the Dodgers.

Technically, McLain has until 5pm ET to change his mind at the eleventh hour, though that outcome seems decidedly unlikely based on Heyman’s report.

Brewers Sign First-Round Pick Brice Turang

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July 6: Turang’s bonus with the Brewers is $3,411,100, reports Callis (via Twitter). That comes in nearly $400K over the slot value.

July 5: With less than 24 hours until the signing deadline, the Brewers have inked first-round pick Brice Turang, as Turang himself announced tonight (Twitter link). Bonus terms aren’t known, though Turang’s No. 21 slot came with a $3,013,600 slot value.

The 18-year-old Turang, a high school shortstop out of California, had been committed to Louisiana State but will instead forgo college to embark on his professional career. There’d been some debate as to whether he’d sign at all, with GM David Stearns telling reporters earlier tonight that there was still “nothing to report” on Turang (Twitter link via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Heading into the draft, Turang was ranked as the draft’s No. 14 prospect by the team at Baseball America. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen rated him 18th at Fangraphs, while ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 24th. Turang was ranked 25th by Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com,

Scouting reports on Turang generally indicate that he wowed scouts throughout the country earlier in his high school career but didn’t impress as much last summer or in his junior season. Law calls him a potential 70 defender at shortstop with some power but questions his hit tool, while Callis and Mayo give him an above-average hit tool but below-average power. Given the discrepancy between Turang’s early work in high school and his more recent showings, opinions on him vary, but there’s no clear area where scouting reports universally indicate that he’s below average. The variance with prep players is always high anyhow, and the general feeling that Turang can stick at shortstop with plus speed creates plenty of cause for optimism even if his bat is less certain.

Dodgers’ First-Round Pick J.T. Ginn Will Not Sign

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Dodgers first-round pick J.T. Ginn, the No. 30 overall selection in last month’s draft, announced tonight (via Instagram) that he will not sign. Rather, the young right-hander will honor his commitment to Mississippi State. Writes Ginn:

After being drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round, I had a lot to think about over the last month. My ultimate goal is to one day play in the Major Leagues, and the draft provided one path to that goal. College baseball offered another path. I am grateful for both opportunities, and after giving it a lot of thought I have decided to pursue my lifelong dream of playing college baseball for the Mississippi State Bulldogs!!!

Fancred’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the Dodgers offered Ginn around $2.4MM, which would’ve topped his No. 30 slot value of $2,275,800 by roughly $125K. That, however, didn’t prove to be incentive enough to steer Ginn away from pursuing a collegiate career. Ginn entered the draft generally ranked in the 30-50 range, placing 33rd on MLB.com’s rankings, 39th at Baseball America and 47th at Fangraphs. As Jim Callis of MLB.com notes, he’ll be eligible to enter the draft again after his sophomore season, when he’ll be 21 years of age in 2020.

Because the Dodgers won’t be signing Ginn, they’ll receive a compensatory pick at No. 31 overall in next year’s draft. For the time being, they’ll lose the $2,275,800 from their overall draft pool. Callis points out that despite the loss of that sum, they’ll likely have enough money to offer around $300K above slot to second-rounder Michael Grove, who has also yet to sign. The deadline for 2018 draftees to sign is tomorrow afternoon at 5pm ET.

Twins Sign First-Rounder Trevor Larnach

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July 5: Larnach’s deal with the Twins is now official, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $2.55MM bonus that comes in a ways south of his $3.12MM slot value. The significant delay between the agreement and the finalization of the deal was due to the fact that Larnach and Oregon State were still playing toward an eventual College World Series championship until late June. Minnesota formally announced the signing shortly after Heyman’s report.

June 5: The Twins have already agreed to a signing bonus with first-round draft pick Trevor Larnach, scouting director Sean Johnson said after last night’s selections were turned in. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger was among those to tweet the news.

The precise number still isn’t known, and may not be until the sides get around to putting pen to paper — which certainly could still take a while. The 20th overall slot comes with a $3.12MM allocation.

It’s not uncommon at all for teams and potential draftees to reach at least a fairly advanced understanding on bonus values on draft night. That doesn’t mean that  signings are announced right away, though on occasion deals are processed rather quickly. In this case, the Twins’ acknowledgement of the agreement on a number suggests that there will be little trouble in formally striking a contract.

Larnach, an outfielder out of Oregon State, certainly seems prepared to take a modern approach to baseball, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press writes. Noted for his lofty exit velocity as a collegian, Larnach says he’s “well aware” of the latest means of measuring the game. He also suggested that he’ll be a grinder as a pro, saying that he has “been working my tail off ever since high school” and is “not done yet.”

Entering the draft, Larnach drew a range of grades. The Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel put down the highest grade, rating him the 12th-best player available on the basis of his physical prowess and that above-noted exit velo. ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription link) placed Larnach 49th, acknowledging the ceiling but questioning whether he had established a strong enough hit tool for a first-round grade.

The bat, clearly, is the draw. All involved acknowledge that Larnach is limited at best in the field and on the bases. Given his status as an advanced college hitter with some power upside, the FG prospect team says that the Twins’ new outfielder “checks every box for the risk-averse, analytics-driven clubs.”

Indians Agree To Terms With 35th Overall Pick Ethan Hankins

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TODAY: Hankins’ bonus is worth $2,246,022, as per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

MONDAY: The Indians have struck agreement with supplemental first-round pick Ethan Hankins, the right-hander told Ian Frazer of the Forsyth County News (via Twitter) after the Indians Prospective Twitter account tweeted that a deal was in place. The bonus value remains unknown.

Hankins went to Cleveland with the 35th overall pick, which came with a $2,016,400 slot value. Some uncertainty as to his status had arisen of late, with the Vandy commit moving to prepare for potential junior college matriculation. Instead of taking either of those routes, he’ll turn professional if the deal is finalized following a physical.

While the agreement is a significant one for the Indians, the team still has some work to do. First-round pick Noah Naylor remains unsigned, as does fifth-rounder Steven Kwan.

Hankins drew a range of grades from draft pundits. The Georgia high-schooler stood at 18th on the Baseball America board but was graded at #40 by Fangraphs. All agree that Hankins looked like a top-of-the-draft talent last summer, with varying levels of concern over his more recent showing following a shoulder injury.

Royals Sign First-Rounder Brady Singer

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The Royals announced today that they have signed first round pick Brady Singer, as Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com first reported on Twitter. Kansas City will spend $4.25MM, well over the $3,349,300 slot value for the 18th overall selection, to land Singer.

Singer will join teammate Jackson Kowar (who reportedly agreed to terms yesterday) in going from a powerhouse University of Florida staff into the K.C. system. The pair  drew ample attention in the run-up to the draft. Both pitchers ended up being among the first six college hurlers to leave the board. (UVA product Daniel Lynch went to the Royals one pick after Kowar, at #34.)

Most draft pundits agreed that Singer was, at a minimum, among the twenty or so best prospects. But there was certainly a range of opinion as to just how rosy his future outlook is. MLB.com rated him second only to unquestioned top prospect Casey Mize among all draft-eligible players. ESPN.com’s Keith Law, meanwhile, had Singer at 21st on his board.

The optimists argue that Singer has just about everything you could want in a pitching prospect, with a good frame and track record of durability combined with good command, oft-lauded competitiveness, and a projection of three quality pitches. On the other side, Law questions whether Singer will shake out in the rotation at the game’s highest level, citing concern with his delivery and ability to maintain his best stuff.

The Royals obviously believe in Singer, who is the most visible member of the team’s draft class — the composition of which reflects a clear strategy to add advanced amateur arms to the system. All of the players the Royals selected in the first ten rounds of the draft are now under contract, as fourth-rounder Eric Cole has also agreed to terms.

Indians Sign First-Rounder Noah Naylor

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The Indians have announced a deal with first-round draft choice Noah Naylor, as MLB.com’s Jim Callis first reported (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $2,578,138 bonus that lands just over the $2,332,700 allocation that came with the 29th overall pick.

Naylor, a Canadian high-school backstop, had committed to Texas A&M. A consensus top-thirty talent, he garnered particularly notable support from ESPN.com’s Keith Law. Naylor rated 14th on Law’s pre-draft board, owing to excellent overall hitting ability and a quality all-around toolset.

Those that aren’t quite as optimistic question whether Naylor really has much power upside and, particularly, whether he’ll add value defensively. Law believes that the youngster will settle in as a quality third or second baseman, while some scouts aren’t sold on Naylor’s potential with the glove. It’s still not entirely clear whether or not he will remain behind the plate to begin his career in the Cleveland organization.

Naylor will now join his older brother — Padres prospect Josh Naylor — in the professional ranks. The Cleveland organization also announced that it has signed all of its first twenty picks from the draft.

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