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2018-19 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The White Sox will make pitching additions as they begin to see the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel, and have the payroll flexibility to pursue the biggest names in free agency if they so choose.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Welington Castillo, C: $7.75MM through 2019.  Includes club option for 2020.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $4.65MM through 2019.  Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $23.15MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Overview]

With two rebuilding years in the books, the White Sox figure to make a push toward opening their next competitive window this winter.  2019 might serve as a transitional year, with higher expectations and at least some small chance of reaching the playoffs.  GM Rick Hahn explained in September, “We’ve made no secret that when the time comes for as we’ve described adding more finishing pieces that we knew those were going to have to come via free agency.  While we are not yet in a position realistically to be adding so called finishing pieces, we are in a position where we need to be opportunistic with regards to the free agent market.”

Let’s take a look at the White Sox payroll situation.  With only Castillo, Jones, and Anderson under contract for a total of $13.3MM in 2019, it’s wide open.  We project the team’s six arbitration eligible players to total around $36.7MM, though the team could easily jettison Avisail Garcia, Leury Garcia, and Davidson if they feel they have better options.  So the team’s likely commitments are in the $38-50MM range.  An Opening Day 25-man roster payroll in the range of $110-120MM is plausible, based on the team’s historical spending.  Bottom line: this team can afford just about any contract.

In 2018, catching duties were handled by Omar Narvaez, Kevan Smith, and Welington Castillo.  Smith has already been lost to the Angels on a waiver claim.  Narvaez, 27 in February, has shown himself to be a capable hitter over the last two years.  He’s also been one of the game’s worst pitch framers and isn’t adept at throwing out attempted thieves.  Castillo was signed a year ago to take on primary catching duties, but he was popped in late May with an 80-game suspension for PED use.  The team is set to roll in 2019 with a Castillo-Narvaez tandem, with top catching prospect Zack Collins waiting in the wings.

Jose Abreu just finished his fifth season as Chicago’s first baseman.  Abreu, 32 in January, has offered a stabilizing veteran presence for the White Sox.  GM Rick Hahn has surely fielded offers over the years, but Abreu’s skillset isn’t one that would likely draw a large return on the trade market.  Now, he has only one year remaining until free agency and an ever-growing salary.  There’s no reason to push for an upgrade or trade this winter, but any contract extension would have to be fairly modest in nature.

Yoan Moncada, just 23 years old, put in his first full season as the White Sox second baseman.  The results were a mixed bag, with about league average offense and the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball.  It was still a decent season.  The idea of trying Moncada at third base or even center field has been broached, but may not be necessary for 2019.  Similarly, shortstop Tim Anderson, 25, put in a useful campaign but still has room to grow.  One of the two, more likely Moncada, may be pushed soon by 2018 first-rounder Nick Madrigal.  The Sox deployed Yolmer Sanchez at the hot corner this year, and the 26-year-old did acceptable work holding down the fort defensively and bringing energy to the team.  He may be best served back in a utility role.

Clearly, there is room for improvement in the team’s infield.  The name on everyone’s mind: Manny Machado.  Hahn made a trade offer for Machado in December, despite the shortstop’s impending free agency.  Perhaps the idea was to help sell Machado on Chicago in an attempt to sign him before he hit the open market.  The 26-year-old would easily plug in on the left side of the infield for the White Sox, though I’m guessing the team would have a slight preference to put Machado at third base rather than his preferred shortstop.  Still, I don’t think Anderson’s presence will be a major impediment to a possible pursuit.  The White Sox check all the boxes for Machado: they have the interest, need, and payroll space.

Though the franchise has never even done a $70MM contract,  let alone one that could be more than five times that, there is precedent from almost 20 years ago.  Back in 1996, the White Sox signed slugger Albert Belle to a five-year, $55MM deal that was the largest in baseball history at the time.  The deal even included a clause that required Belle to remain one of the “top three salaried players for the life of the deal,” as Claire Smith wrote in the New York Times, or else become eligible for free agency.  “We’re not being fiscally irresponsible because we can afford it,” said owner Jerry Reinsdorf at the time.  On the other hand, baseball salaries have grown well beyond inflation since 1996.  $55MM in 1996 is the same as $88MM now – not $350-400MM.

Beyond that, a push for Machado would be slightly wasted if the team wasn’t otherwise built up to contend in 2019 with major pitching additions.  Rebuilding teams have certainly signed star players “early” in the past, but getting a five-plus win season from Machado in 2019 is a key part of signing him.  So the work wouldn’t be done with just Machado. The Sox could, of course, also look to upgrade at third base with someone other than Machado.  They could attempt to trade for Maikel Franco, Kyle Seager, or Jake Lamb or sign Josh Donaldson or Mike Moustakas, for example.

Avisail Garcia is the incumbent in right field.  Garcia had multiple DL stints for a hamstring injury this year and was scheduled for knee surgery in October.  He’s been a replacement level player for his entire career outside of 2017, and he projects for an $8MM salary in his final season before free agency.  Keeping him and hoping for a rebound is a reasonable gamble given the team’s payroll space, but the White Sox could also trade or non-tender Garcia if they are thinking bigger.  Like maybe Bryce Harper bigger?  The rationale for Harper is much the same as Machado.  That said, the White Sox have a long and often contentious history with Harper’s agent, Scott Boras.  I don’t know whether Reinsdorf has an appetite for tangling with him on a record-setting contract for Harper, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Left field was manned by many different players for the White Sox in 2018, mainly Nicky Delmonico, Charlie Tilson, Leury Garcia, and Daniel Palka.  The team received little production from these players, though Palka showed big power against right-handed pitching.  Generally, everyone was just keeping the seat warm for Eloy Jimenez, who is MLB-ready and currently rates as the third-best prospect in baseball.  Jimenez figures to finally get the call in late April, allowing the White Sox to control him for the better part of the next seven seasons.  Even as a rookie, he might be the team’s best player.  Jimenez could be an option at either outfield corner, and he’ll surely be a regular once he’s promoted.

Palka, 27, was a nice waiver claim for the White Sox a year ago.  He hit 27 home runs in 449 plate appearances for the Sox this year, and even with a lot of strikeouts and scarce walks, his power plays against right-handed pitching.  His defense needs work, and he’s yet to show that he can hit lefties in the Majors.  He’s an option to replace or platoon with Garcia in right field, but may be better served in a DH platoon with Matt Davidson.  Depending on whether the Sox want to keep Garcia and how they feel about Palka’s defense, they could turn to the market for a better outfielder to pair with Jimenez.  Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen, and Marwin Gonzalez are the best non-Harper options in free agency.  Hahn could also go down a tier to the likes of Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, though neither projects as a difference-maker on the field next year.  The trade market has a few decent options, perhaps including David Peralta, Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Martinez, Yasiel Puig, Kyle Schwarber, and Wil Myers.

The White Sox gave most of their center field playing time to Adam Engel, who got the job done defensively but served as one of the worst hitters in baseball.  A.J. Pollock is the only real free agent option.  He’d be a good fit for the Sox, except that they’d have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K since Pollock received a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks.  There’s a price at which that makes sense.  The Sox could also hit the trade market, perhaps for someone semi-interesting like Michael A. Taylor or Odubel Herrera.

The team also must weigh the considerable number of outfield prospects who could arrive in the Majors about a year after Jimenez: Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo, and Luis Gonzalez.  There’s an argument for simply adding a stopgap veteran to improve depth in 2019, and then evaluating which prospects are MLB ready for the following season.

The White Sox gave most of their DH time to Davidson and Palka this year.  The pair can make for an effective platoon.  Still, if the White Sox don’t mind tying up the spot with one player, Nelson Cruz would give an excellent boost to the offense without a long-term commitment or loss of a draft pick.

With James Shields hitting free agency, the White Sox are poised to lose their 2018 innings leader in the rotation.  They also lost top young pitcher Michael Kopech to Tommy John surgery in September.  Reynaldo Lopez, 25 in January, authored a dominant finish (five runs in his last 40 innings) to push his ERA under 4.00 for the year.  The Sox surely hope he’ll be a rotation fixture for the next five years or more.  Carlos Rodon, 26 in December, is under team control for three more seasons.  He limped to the finish line, allowing 28 earned runs over his last 27 1/3 frames.  Both pitchers are locked in for 2019, despite middling peripheral stats that should temper enthusiasm.

It’s difficult to find the bright spots in Lucas Giolito’s season.  The 24-year-old righty put up a 6.13 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9, and a 44.4% groundball rate in 32 starts.  Nonetheless, it sounds like Giolito is penciled in for 2019.  I imagine he won’t get another 32 starts if he doesn’t take a step forward.  Dylan Covey, a 27-year-old former first rounder, had a few flashes of brilliance and should be in the rotation mix.  Top White Sox pitching prospect Dylan Cease moved up to Double-A in June and dominated, suggesting a 2019 MLB debut.  Dane Dunning should arrive in 2019, as could Jordan Stephens.  The team’s 2015 first-round pick, Carson Fulmer, struggled mightily at both Triple-A and the Majors, and will have to pitch his way back into the picture.

Some kind of addition makes sense for this rotation.  Again, there’s really no one the White Sox can’t afford.  They can throw big money at Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi, or look at more affordable options, including Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, or even Shields.  If he can be sold on Chicago, 27-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi would fit better into the team’s likely window of contention.  Garrett Richards would be another forward-looking pickup, since he should return from Tommy John surgery in 2020.  The trade market could include Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy, and Julio Teheran.

Hahn spoke recently of the need to “augment the rotation and the bullpen” this winter, and picked up former top prospect Manny Banuelos as a possible bullpen option.  Holdovers in the bullpen will likely include Nate Jones, Jace Fry, Aaron Bummer, and Juan Minaya.  DH/first baseman Matt Davidson could contribute more as a mop-up man, which would be a fun story.  The Sox also have interesting options who reached the Majors this year in Ian Hamilton, Jose Ruiz, Thyago Vieira, Ryan Burr, and Caleb Frare. Tommy John recipient Zack Burdi could join the mix. I wouldn’t expect the White Sox to spring for Craig Kimbrel, but there’s a slew of solid options they can go after in free agency depending on their willingness to spend.

The White Sox payroll situation cannot be stressed enough: they could theoretically add Machado ($30MM projected annual salary), Corbin ($21.5MM), Pollock ($15MM), and Jeurys Familia ($10MM) and still have a payroll within their historical norms.  Most likely, though, the White Sox are a year too early to go nuts in the offseason.  If the team falls short on or ignores Machado and other big names, fans can still dream on a strong 2019-20 free agent class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Orioles are the only team in baseball that lost more games than the Royals in 2018, but the Kansas City organization has suggested it doesn’t plan to embark on a lengthy rebuild featuring multiple years of tanking. Significant improvement, however, remains a tall order for general manager Dayton Moore and his staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll]

Free Agents

The Royals lost an abysmal 104 games in 2018. While it was never expected that they’d contend for a division title, general manager Dayton Moore expressed open disappointment and frustration with his team’s noncompetitive nature — both in the days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline and again, more emphatically, after the conclusion of the season. “I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that’s it’s OK to lose baseball games,” said Moore when speaking to reporters in mid-October. “It’s not. … That’s our responsibility — to win games.”

If Moore’s comments do indeed indicate that he’ll make a concerted effort to make the Royals a more competitive club in 2019, he could be walking a fine line. The Royals are reportedly aiming to cut payroll by as much as $35MM next season after spending at record levels, and that won’t leave Moore with a great deal of flexibility when pursuing upgrades. Much of the payroll cutting can be accomplished organically; the contracts of Hammel, Brandon Moss and Travis Wood are now all off the books, while 2018-19 free agents such as Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda and Jon Jay were moved during the season — most with some degree of salary relief being included in the deal. The Royals, Moore explained in July, deliberately sought players who were MLB-ready or close to it (e.g. Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kelvin Gutierrez) — a further sign that ownership and management don’t want to see another prolonged stretch of futility.

The Royals have also already cut ties with would-be arbitration-eligible players like Nate Karns and Brandon Maurer, further reducing their 2019 payroll projections. At present, between the six guaranteed deals referenced above, the three arb-eligibles remaining and another 14 pre-arbitration players to round out the 25-man roster, Kansas City projects to enter the season with a payroll just north of $90MM. As such, they’re already looking at a savings of roughly $31.5MM over their 2018 Opening Day payroll. That falls within the reported $30-35MM target range, but doesn’t leave for much in the way of free-agent pickups or added salary on the trade market.

That’s not to say, of course, that the Royals are precluded from adding any pieces at all. Perhaps ownership recognizes that it’s simply not possible to add much to this roster, as currently constructed, and keep payroll in the $90MM range. Perhaps the front office will be permitted to apply any savings accrued in last year’s midseason trades toward the 2019 payroll. (The Royals, for instance, saved more than $4MM by trading Herrera to the Nationals in early June.) Kansas City has also habitually backloaded contracts during Moore’s time as GM — often utilizing mutual options with relatively notable buyouts as an accounting measure to effectively defer some of the guaranteed portion of the deal. Moustakas, Hammel, Moss, Wood, Mike Minor, Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, Joakim Soria and Kendrys Morales all had mutual options on their free-agent pacts with the Royals.

It doesn’t seem reasonable to expect that the Royals will add much salary to the books in 2019, but if we see yet another offseason of somewhat creative spending out of Kauffman Stadium, there are a few obvious areas of upgrade — starting with the bullpen. Kansas City, at present, will have Peralta back in a late-inning role after he enjoyed a rebound year, to an extent. The former Brewers starter posted a solid 3.67 ERA and averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also walked 23 batters in 34 1/3 innings. Beyond him, Flynn and Tim Hill are options from the left side while Jesse Hahn, Kevin McCarthy, Burch Smith and Jorge Lopez are options from the right side. With Hahn, Lopez and Flynn all out of minor league options, they’ll need to make the roster in some capacity or be exposed to waivers.

When a bullpen’s most established figure walked more than six batters per nine innings the season prior, there’s obviously plenty in the way of openings. It’d be a surprise to see the Royals spend on top-tier relief arms or even those in the second tier of free agents, but the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium and the allure of guaranteed innings could help draw rebound candidates like David Phelps and Drew Storen (2017 Tommy John surgery) or AJ Ramos and Carson Smith (2018 shoulder surgery). Relievers coming off down seasons (e.g. Tyler Lyons, Justin Wilson) could make some sense, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a backloaded two-year pact for a solid but non-elite reliever coming off a quality season — someone in the Bud Norris vein, perhaps. There’s little reason for the Royals not to be active on the waiver wire and in offering minor league pacts with Spring Training invites, as well.

In the rotation, things look to be more set. Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller (arguably the most successful pick in last year’s Rule 5 Draft) figure to have rotation spots more or less set in stone. Hahn, Lopez, Heath Fillmyer and Trevor Oaks are among the options in the fifth spot. That said, the back of the rotation does present the Royals with the opportunity to promise some innings to rebound candidate with some upside; Drew Pomeranz, Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross could all make some level of sense in that five spot.

As for the more expensive names who are already penciled into rotation slots, it seems rather unlikely that the Royals would move them. Selling low on Duffy, a core piece who a season ago looked like a solid trade chip, would be difficult for the Royals, and it’s unlikely that they’d be able to accomplish that goal without absorbing some of the $46MM remaining on his deal. Financial help would be all the more required to move Kennedy, who has floundered through 52 starts and allowed 54 home runs through 273 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, the lineup is perhaps a bit more set than some would expect. Salvador Perez is entrenched at catcher and unlikely to be traded despite the fact that there’d be interest. Whit Merrifield has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around players in the American League (9.4 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR over the past two seasons), while his double-play partner, Adalberto Mondesi, hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 homers and 32 steals in just 75 games last year. Mondesi badly needs to improve his plate discipline (3.8 percent walk rate, 37.1 percent chase rate, 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate), but he clearly has some pop and isn’t lacking in baserunning or defensive chops. At first base, Ryan O’Hearn emerged late in the season and bludgeoned right-handed pitching at a .313/.403/.705 clip. Some regression is coming, but he could be paired with an affordable righty free-agent pickup late in the season to form a platoon. Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert remain on hand as internal options for that role, but neither has hit in the Majors to date — even in favorable platoon matchups.

Looking to the outfield, Gordon is assured of his spot in left field. While his four-year, $72MM contract has been a flop, Gordon remains a premium defender in left and had his best year at the plate since 2015 this past season. Center field isn’t exactly a certainty, but the organization likely wants to get a further look at rocket-armed Brett Phillips, who opened eyes with three highlight-reel outfield assists in 33 games but hit just .188/.252/.313 in 123 PAs after being acquired for Moustakas. The former top 100 prospect is strikeout-prone but nonetheless brings an exciting skill-set to the outfield. Jorge Bonifacio should see some time in right field, perhaps in a split with left-handed-hitting Brian Goodwin, who can handle all three outfield spots. If that group proves unable to cut it, Merrifield has proven versatile enough to handle some time in the outfield and could shift off second base if prospect Nicky Lopez hits his way to the big leagues.

There’s room for Kansas City to add some depth in the outfield, but they have enough relatively young options that it probably won’t be deemed a priority. Still, given the manner in which some outfielders have been squeezed out in free agency in recent offseasons, if there’s an intriguing veteran available on a one-year deal or on a non-roster invite in February or early March, the Royals could act opportunistically (as they did with Jon Jay last winter).

Beyond a platoon partner for O’Hearn at first base and perhaps a backup to Perez at catcher — Cam Gallagher has not hit much, and depth is thin beyond him — third base is the most apparent spot for the Royals to upgrade. Cuthbert and Dozier, the top internal options, simply have not delivered at the plate in the Majors. Cuthbert has tallied 830 PAs with just a .252/.303/.378 slash to show for his efforts, while Dozier has batted .228/.279/.388 in 409 PAs.

Perhaps it’s too much to expect the same result for a second consecutive season, but the Royals once again seem like a logical landing spot for Moustakas in free agency. With no qualifying offer attached to him this time around and a better defensive showing with his 2016 ACL surgery further behind him, it seems likely that Moose will land a multi-year deal this time around. It’d be easy enough to backload that deal to go easy on the ’19 payroll, especially considering the fact that Gordon’s deal will come off the books in the 2019-20 offseason. If not Moustakas, veterans like Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Asdrubal Cabrera could be options. If the Royals can look beyond his off-the-field issues, perhaps Jung Ho Kang could fit there on a short-term deal as well.

Regardless of the moves made by the Kansas City front office this winter, it’s difficult to see the Royals contending in 2019. Moore has plainly stated that his top priority is to improve the team’s farm system, but he’s coupled that with simultaneous desire to win more games. It’s a dichotomous pair of goals, and in recent baseball history, most teams (particularly, those with lesser resources) have focused on one or the other — either being content to accept some losing years in the short term in exchange for a prolonged run of success or showing a willingness to mortgage some of the future for a chance at immediate glory. The Royals, though, appear as though they’ll strive for some incremental improvements without detracting from the minor league ranks. Even though it’s hard to envision the strategy leading to a 2019 winner, despite a weak division, expect the Royals to add some second- and third-tier free agents to the margins of the roster as they aim to put a miserable 104-loss season behind them.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The 2018 season was a resounding success for the Athletics, who entered the campaign as underdogs but ended it as one of the majors’ premier teams. Despite opening the season with baseball’s lowest payroll, the Athletics notched the sport’s fourth-most wins (97) and earned their first playoff berth since 2014. The postseason was a one-off for the Athletics, whom the Yankees bounced in the American League wild-card game, but it’s obvious the franchise came a long way this past year. Now, with the A’s looking to build an even better club for 2019, they’re set to increase payroll, as just-extended executive vice president Billy Beane announced this week. Of course, with the A’s still at least a few years away from potentially opening a new ballpark in Oakland, it may be unrealistic to expect their payroll to make a substantial near-term jump.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Stephen Piscotty, OF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
  • Yusmeiro Petit, RP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Athletics Offseason Depth Chart | Athletics Payroll Information]

Here’s a statement which would have seemed believable in, say, 2010 instead of 2018: A team which saw Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Edwin Jackson total at least 17 starts apiece made the playoffs. Amazingly, Oakland accomplished that this past season after grabbing Cahill, Anderson and Jackson off the scrapheap. All three of those pitchers’ halcyon days were supposedly long gone, but each paid dividends for an A’s team whose starting staff dealt with a horrific rash of injuries, including to No. 1 option Sean Manaea and promising youngsters A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton, among many others. Manaea easily led the A’s in innings (160 2/3) and ERA (3.59), but his season ended Aug. 24 because of a shoulder injury/surgery that could keep him out for all of 2019. Meanwhile, both Puk and Cotton missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and they’re also likely to sit out some portion of next year.

Because of the injuries to Manaea, Puk and Cotton, not to mention the fact that Cahill, Anderson and Jackson are now free agents, questions abound in the A’s rotation. Unsurprisingly, it’s a major area of concern for Beane, who said this week that he and general manager David Forst – who, along with manager Bob Melvin, also just received an extension – want to “create a starting pitching group that Bob can rely on every day.”

Piecing together a reliable starting group was an extremely difficult task for the A’s in 2018, which led them to deploy the “opener” on several occasions, including in their playoff loss to the Yankees. Veteran reliever Liam Hendriks was the main pick in such situations, totaling eight “starts” in September. With the exception of a subpar playoff showing, Hendriks pitched brilliantly in those short outings, thereby salvaging his season just a couple months after the A’s cut him from their 40-man roster. The 29-year-old is now among the A’s arbitration-eligible players, and it’s unclear whether they’ll retain him or how they’ll utilize Hendriks if they keep him. Whether it’s Hendriks or another pitcher(s), Oakland could take a page out of the 2018 Rays’ playbook and use an opener on a regular basis for the majority of the season, which would slightly lessen the need to acquire traditional starting pitchers over the winter.

Of course, even if the A’s do continue rolling with that unorthodox strategy next season, they’d still need more help. After all, the unspectacular Mike Fiers – acquired from Detroit in August – looks like the most proven healthy starter they have. The 33-year-old did good work during his two-month stint in Oakland in 2018, but he’s more of a mid- to back-end arm than a front-line type. Fiers also won’t be cheap in 2019, but given the uncertainty throughout the A’s rotation, he seems more likely than not to stick with the club.

Beyond Fiers, Oakland’s top healthy options look to be Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. All three were reasonably effective last season, but each carry limited track records in the majors. Lefty Jesus Luzardo has never appeared in the bigs, on the other hand, but the 21-year-old is one of Oakland’s best hopes to find an ace from within. While Luzardo has only combined for 94 2/3 innings above the Single-A level, he’s regarded as a stud prospect, and Forst recently suggested he could vie for a starting spot with the A’s as soon as spring training.

No matter what happens with Luzardo in camp, it’s clear the A’s will have to augment their rotation from the outside prior to then. The question is whether they have the financial flexibility to make headline-grabbing moves. Including arbitration projections, the A’s are already looking at an Opening Day payroll of more than $86MM, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. They began last season just under $66MM, and they’ve only gone past $86MM once (in 2016). The A’s could create spending room by non-tendering some players and perhaps extending expensive designated hitter Khris Davis in order to lower his 2019 salary. However, even if those scenarios come to fruition, it’s tough to envision them being in position to splurge on anyone.

The good news is that Beane and Forst proved they could bargain hunt on the starting pitching market recently with the additions of Cahill, Anderson and Jackson (plus Rich Hill in 2016). And looking at this year’s class of free-agent starters, there’s no shortage of available veterans who a.) have been successful and b.) won’t break the bank. A few of the many names include CC Sabathia (a Bay Area native), Lance Lynn, Derek Holland (Bay Area ties from spending 2018 with the Giants), Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz and former Athletics Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz and Tyson Ross. On paper, nobody from that group is all that exciting, but they could be effective, affordable options for Oakland to pursue in free agency. Alternatively, the A’s may seek higher-upside types via trade.

Even though he bombed as a member of the Yankees, who acquired him from the Athletics in July 2017, a reunion with Sonny Gray could make sense. The Yankees are all but guaranteed to sell low on the soon-to-be 29-year-old Gray, who pitched well outside of New York in 2018 and who’s projected to earn $9.1MM next season. If the A’s want to go bigger than Gray, perhaps they’ll make a push for a member of the Indians’ stellar trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Cleveland will reportedly listen to offers for each of those hurlers, but because all three are fantastic and relatively inexpensive, the Tribe would demand bounties for any of them. With that in mind, it’s worth noting the A’s farm system sits a middle-of-the-pack 15th in Baseball America’s latest rankings. They probably wouldn’t be in the catbird seat with regard to acquiring any of the Indians’ aces, then.

There are fewer pressing issues elsewhere on the A’s roster, but they aren’t devoid of concerns. While most of the A’s terrific, Blake Treinen-led bullpen remains intact, they could lose two important pieces from it in Jeurys Familia and Shawn Kelley, who are now free agents. Meantime, on the position player side, their biggest questions are at catcher and second base, where their 2018 starters are also free agents.

At the keystone, Jed Lowrie has been an extension target for the A’s since at least the summer. Oakland wasn’t able to lock the 34-year-old up before the market opened, but it still seems to want him back. Considering Lowrie was among the majors’ most valuable second basemen from 2017-18, that’s not surprising. But the A’s will have to consider his age and injury history, not to mention the presence of intriguing youngster Franklin Barreto, when determining how much they’re willing to pay Lowrie. In the event Lowrie walks, Oakland could simply turn second over to the soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto – who, despite posting palatable production in the majors and minors, struck out and walked at untenable rates from 2017-18 – or add one of the many veteran stopgaps available in free agency as a fallback.

The A’s took the veteran stopgap route behind the plate an offseason ago, signing Jonathan Lucroy to a one-year, $6.5MM deal. Lucroy’s a free agent again as a result, and it’s possible the A’s will bring him back on another short-term agreement. Lucroy, 32, is nowhere near the player he used to be, though he seemed to fit in nicely with the Athletics in 2018. Aside from Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos, each of whom should be out of the A’s price range, free agency’s lacking in game-changing backstops. That could lead the A’s to at least kick the tires on baseball’s best catcher from 2018, J.T. Realmuto, whom the Marlins figure to trade this winter. However, as is the case with the aforementioned Indians starters, acquiring Realmuto would mean surrendering a haul. As such, the A’s may be more inclined to go with a Lucroy type and continue waiting for 24-year-old catching prospect Sean Murphy, who could arrive in the majors sometime next season.

While catcher and second base are clearly the A’s biggest problem areas among their position players, there’s an argument that they should also add to their outfield. However, they’re already crowded out there, and most of the returnees acquitted themselves well in 2018.

The A’s most established outfielder is right fielder Stephen Piscotty, one of their shrewdest acquisitions from last winter. Center fielder Ramon Laureano was also an impact pickup from an offseason ago, but his addition came with much less fanfare than Piscotty’s. Laureano joined the A’s via waivers from the division-rival Astros in November, and he surprisingly went on to emerge as a standout during a 176-plate appearance campaign. Along with playing tremendous defense, the righty-swinger held his own against same-handed pitchers and lefties alike, creating hope that he can be an everyday starter for the long haul. The unheralded trio of Mark Canha, Chad Pinder and Nick Martini also proved to be tough outs, and the A’s may be confident they’ll deftly hold down left field in 2019. There’s also Dustin Fowler, whom the A’s acquired in the Gray deal. Fowler, 23, had a difficult rookie year, though in fairness, it was his first action since he suffered a brutal knee injury while with the Yankees in 2017.

Evidenced in part by their outfield, there should once again be plenty to like about the A’s cast of position players in 2019. Superstar third baseman Matt Chapman – whom the A’s may try to extend – will continue to be their franchise player, while Davis, first baseman Matt Olson, shortstop Marcus Semien and at least a couple outfielders represent quality complements who remain on hand. The bullpen also continues to look formidable, leaving the A’s shaky starting rotation as their most significant issue this offseason. Between the unit’s injuries, its potential free-agent departures and the A’s payroll constraints, Beane and Forst have serious work ahead to turn the staff into a strength prior to next season. If they’re able to achieve that feat, it would go a long way toward helping the A’s stay among baseball’s elite in 2019.

2018-19 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is well underway, as we’ll be providing overviews of what all 30 teams are likely to have in store for their winter moves.  This post will be updated with links to each article as it is completed in the coming weeks.

NL West

NL Central

NL East

AL West

AL Central

AL East

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

After a surprising AL Wild Card berth in 2017, the Twins’ 2018 season ended with 78 wins and the dismissal of manager Paul Molitor. Veterans Ervin Santana, Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison and Jason Castro each had a nightmarish campaign, while the Twins saw even more troubling regression from Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The AL Central is still the game’s weakest division, leaving some hope for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine as they look to reload and try for better results in 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Ervin Santana, RHP: $14.5MM club option — declined in favor of $1MM buyout
  • Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: $8MM club option — declined in favor of $1MM buyout

Free Agents

[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll outlook]

The first order of business for the Twins has already been wrapped up, as the team named Rocco Baldelli its new manager. The 37-year-old Baldelli replaces Paul Molitor, who won 2017 AL Manager of the Year honors but was inherited by Falvey and Levine under an ownership mandate. The Twins’ unexpected Wild Card run in 2017 somewhat forced the front office’s hand in offering him an extension, and 2018’s disappointment gave them a natural avenue to appoint a new skipper who more closely shares their organizational vision and philosophy. Molitor, to his credit, was plenty open to newer lines of thinking in baseball, as the Twins experimented with “the opener” late in the season and have been far more aggressive in using defensive shifts under Molitor than under previous skipper Ron Gardenhire. He was offered a new role within the organization but is reportedly unlikely to accept as he instead pursues managerial and/or coaching opportunities with other clubs.

Molitor isn’t the only St. Paul native whose tenure with the hometown organization is up in the air. After spending 15 seasons in a Twins uniform, Joe Mauer wrapped up his eight-year contract in an emotional sendoff that saw him crouch behind the plate for one final pitch from close friend and teammate Matt Belisle before being removed from the game in the ninth inning. Twins fans showered Mauer with adulation in that possible farewell (video link), as play stopped for several minutes while St. Paul’s favorite son soaked in what may have been his final moments as a Major League player.

That Sunday proved to be an almost perfect parting note for Mauer — unbeknownst to him, he would be greeted by his twin daughters at first base to start the game, and he went on to double to left-center in his final plate appearance — but the potential Hall of Famer is still not certain about his future. Asked in an emotional press conference after the game whether he’d return for a 16th season, Mauer demurred, expressing his gratitude for that afternoon’s gestures from the organization before indicating that he’ll take some time to mull his future with his family. If he does return, he’s stated on multiple occasions that he can’t envision playing anywhere else. He may no longer be a superstar, but even at age 35, Mauer posted a league-average offensive season with positive defensive marks at first base (+3 DRS, +2.7 UZR) for the fifth straight season since moving there. He’d surely need to take a sizable pay cut, but if Mauer wants to come back, the organization could retain him on an affordable one-year deal.

First base, though, is one of but many areas in which the Twins are facing uncertainty. In last year’s outlook for the team, I wrote that a lot went right for the 2017 Twins, highlighting the progress made by presumptive building blocks Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario. Of that quartet, only Rosario doubled down on his 2017 breakout. Polanco was slapped with an 80-game PED suspension prior to the season, although he did hit well in his return (.288/.345/.427, seven homers, seven steals). Polanco still looks like a lock to hold down a middle-infield spot in the long run. Buxton and Sano, to put things mildly, are complete mysteries.

Baldelli and his coaching staff — the composition of which remains unclear — should consider restoring Buxton and Sano to their once-prominent status a top priority. The two combined for nearly eight wins above replacement in 2017; each clearly has enough talent to be a cornerstone piece for a perennially competitive Twins team. But neither has been able to tap into that upside on a regular basis, with Sano’s conditioning and penchant for strikeouts and Buxton’s inconsistency at the plate ranking among the most frustrating obstacles Minnesota has faced in recent years.

It seems likely that both will be back in the fold next season, as selling low on either player would be a difficult pill for the organization to swallow. Speaking more generally, the Twins appear set for a fair bit of roster turnover. Rosario and Max Kepler are likely to man the outfield corners next season, while Polanco has a middle-infield spot locked down. But the Twins could plausibly look for new additions at any of first base, third base or DH (depending on where Sano lines up), either shortstop or second base (depending on where Polanco plays) and potentially at catcher. Jason Castro is set to return from knee surgery, and Mitch Garver provided solid offense as a 27-year-old rookie, but there could still be room for an upgrade.

Looking to the pitching staff, Minnesota has a deceptive amount of depth in the rotation but is lacking in the way of top-end starting pitching. Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (signed last winter to a backloaded two-year deal as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery) can all be penciled into the Opening Day rotation, and the team has a wealth of options in the fifth spot.

Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Duffey, Kohl Stewart, Zack Littell and Aaron Slegers have all pitched in the Majors, and each of the first three in that group has recently ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Most of the bunch is limited to fourth/fifth starter upside, but it’s rather hefty stock of back-end arms. Perhaps, then, Falvey, Levine & Co. would be best-suited looking to condense some of that quantity into a single, higher-quality option on the trade market. That stash of upper-level arms could also come in handy when looking for trades to solidify the lineup and a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit.

The bullpen, though, is a greater area of need. The Twins traded Fernando Rodney to the A’s in August and don’t have a set closer in place, though that’s perhaps less critical than ever in an age where longstanding conventional pitching roles are evolving. Fellow offseason pickup Addison Reed had a terrific start to the 2018 season before struggling badly for a month and then hitting the disabled list with an elbow impingement. He’s owed $8.25MM in 2019 and will be part of the bullpen — likely alongside Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers. Oliver Drake was excellent for the Twins after finally escaping the waiver carousel, so perhaps he’s pitched his way into the plan. Regardless, there should be multiple spots up for grabs, and the Twins have the means to pursue any high-end reliever they deem a worthy target.

Broadly speaking, in fact, the Twins should have the payroll capacity and the farm strength to pursue just about any possibility they wish. Minnesota has just over $30MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2019 (plus another $38MM in projected arbitration salaries) and, incredibly, has a completely blank payroll slate beyond 2019. The Twins have zero dollars in guaranteed money on the books for the 2020 season, so there’s no reason to think they can’t spend as aggressively as any club in the game.

That shouldn’t be read as an implication that the Twins will be a realistic landing spot for a premier free agent such as Bryce Harper or Manny Machado; swaying either player to sign in Minnesota would be a tall order for several reasons. Minneapolis has never been a highly coveted free-agent destination, the 2018 season was a noted disappointment, the Twins have never committed a $30MM+ salary to a single player, and they’d have less margin for error in doing so than larger-market clubs with better television contracts and greater revenue streams. But the Twins did put forth a $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish last offseason, and it’s not unreasonable to think they could be in the market for free agents who could command annual salaries approaching or exceeding $20MM (e.g. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel).

Where they’ll look to improve is a larger question than if they have the means to do so. Corbin or Keuchel would represent the most plausible rotation upgrades on the free-agent market, but competition for both figures to be steep. Craig Kimbrel sits atop the free-agent market for relievers, and the market has various top-tier options beyond him, including Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton and 2018 breakout Adam Ottavino. Given the uncertainty at the back of the ’pen and the wide-open payroll ledger, the Twins seem as good a bet as any club to add some high-end relief help this winter.

The lineup presents even more opportunities, as the Twins could target upgrades at any infield slot or conceivably add an impact designated hitter like Nelson Cruz. Minnesota was fine committing its DH spot to one player last season, and even if Logan Morrison’s faulty hip (which eventually required surgery to repair a torn labrum) torpedoed his ’18 season, the willingness to go with one regular option rather than rotate several players through that spot is notable. Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility could serve the Twins well, and they’re a plausible landing spot for a bounceback candidate like Josh Donaldson, who could slot into the middle of the lineup at third base and push Sano to first base/designated hitter himself. Even in the outfield, it’s not outlandish to think the Twins could look for at least one upgrade, with only Rosario having turned in consecutive impressive seasons.

Beyond their substantial payroll flexibility, the Twins possess a solid farm system in addition to the aforementioned back-of-the-rotation depth. They’re one of 10 or more viable candidates to make an earnest run at J.T. Realmuto on the trade market and will be opportunistic in seeking out additional scenarios. The D-backs, for instance, would surely love to clear a portion of Zack Greinke’s remaining salary in a trade and would be intrigued by Minnesota’s system. The Phillies and Cardinals both have their sights set on contending but are also both in line for active winters on the trade market and could make numerous intriguing players available (e.g. Cesar Hernandez, Jose Martinez).

Possibilities abound, but Minnesota has as much flexibility as just about any organization in baseball to make changes this winter, and the likelihood of doing so is strong. The 2017 Twins, frankly, weren’t as good as a playoff berth in a weak American League might indicate on the surface, and that sudden success likely created some unrealistic expectations about the 2018 campaign. But, conversely, the 2018 Twins shouldn’t have been as bad as they were. Fair or not, that 2017 season raised expectations in the Twin Cities, and now that Falvey and Levine are entering their third winter in charge and have their own manager in place, the pressure will be on to start putting forth a more consistently competitive team — one that can not only enter the Wild Card picture but one that can challenge the Indians in an otherwise still flimsy division.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The rebuild process continues for the Tigers, who will likely use the winter to seek more young talent while plugging a few roster holes, but they do have spending power to work with if they wish.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]

The Tigers head into the offseason knowing that their 2019 lineup will consist of Jeimer Candelario at third base, super-utilityman Niko Goodrum at one of a variety of positions, future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera at either first base or DH (with John Hicks supplementing him), and likely power-hitting prospect Christin Stewart in left field.  Beyond these spots, however, the team has a lot of flexibility to work with as the Tigers continue to figure out who will be part of their long-term future.

At both center field and catcher, for instance, Detroit has to decide how it will best fill positions until some notable minor leaguers make their arrival.  JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook are the top in-house choices in center field, though it isn’t an ideal platoon since both are right-handed bats and neither delivered much at the plate last season.  The Tigers could choose to augment the position with a veteran signing, as they did with Leonys Martin last winter, or just stick with Jones and Mahtook until top prospect Daz Cameron is ready (perhaps later in the season).  Cameron has shown solid on-base skills over his four pro seasons, including a .285/.367/.470 slash line over 226 Double-A plate appearances last season, though he’ll need some more seasoning after playing just 15 games at Triple-A last year.

Catching prospect Jake Rogers could also enter the big league picture once he debuts at Triple-A and shows more consistency at the plate, as scouts and observers are already very impressed by his defense.  That leaves the Tigers with the option of sticking with James McCann, Hicks, and Grayson Greiner until Rogers is ready, or perhaps trading or even non-tendering McCann to instead go with a combo of Greiner and Hicks behind the plate.  McCann is coming off a sub-replacement level season both offensively and in terms of pitch-blocking and framing, though he did provide decent value (1.6 fWAR, 95 wRC+) in 2017.  McCann is projected for a $3.5MM salary via arbitration, though that sum is modest enough that the team’s decision will just come down to whether or not it feels McCann is the best choice for the pitching staff going forward.

The most obvious hole in the lineup is at shortstop, as the Tigers were unable to move Jose Iglesias after months of trade rumors and will now allow the sparkling defender to reach free agency.  Iglesias will get some attention from other teams looking for a defensive upgrade up the middle, though four straight seasons of below-average offensive production will limit his market.  While Iglesias has already publicly said his goodbyes to the Detroit fans, he might very well end up fitting the team’s need for a relatively inexpensive veteran shortstop.  Sticking with a known quantity like Iglesias might be preferable to signing another veteran in free agency (e.g. Jordy Mercer, Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar), though if the Tigers are thinking about flipping their veteran acquisition at the trade deadline, they could aim slightly higher with someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, who offers more at the plate.

An experienced shortstop would go a long way towards bolstering the infield situation for the first part of the season, as the Tigers surely hope that more than one of their best infield prospects (Dawel Lugo, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes) can force a promotion to the big league roster later in the year.  Lugo already made his MLB debut in 2018, so he and rookie Ronny Rodriguez are favorites as utility infield depth while Goodrum is probably the top choice at second base.  Alternatively, the Tigers could use Goodrum and Rodriguez at shortstop while adding a regular second baseman.  Someone like Galvis, Mercer, or Cabrera could fit either middle infield spot, of course, while free agent second basemen like Josh Harrison or Logan Forsythe would also offer a bit of versatility at third base.  Perhaps the club could strike if it sees good value in a free agent who falls through the cracks a bit, with DJ LeMahieu seemingly an interesting hypothetical possibility as the market gets underway.

Goodrum did spend the bulk of his time at second base last year and the Tigers are likelier to just stick with him at the position, though his versatility makes him a nice asset for Detroit to utilize as they figure out the remainder of their roster. For instance, Goodrum could see some more time in right field should the Tigers take the leap on dealing Nicholas Castellanos.  After three years of .285/.336/.495 production, Castellanos offers a lot of hitting prowess to any team looking for some short-term pop, as Castellanos is only under contract through the 2018 season.  On the down side, the 26-year-old is due for a big raise in his final year of arbitration (a projected $11.3MM), and Castellanos hasn’t provided any defensive value whatsoever, either as a right fielder or at his old third base spot. Unsurprisingly, his poor glovework has reputedly limited his trade value before and will continue to do so.

The Tigers have resisted the idea of using Castellanos as a first baseman in the past, due in large part to other roster considerations. Now that Victor Martinez’s retirement has opened up the designated hitter spot, it might be time for Detroit to consider deploying Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera in a timeshare between the first base and DH spots.  (Anthony Fenech recently explored the possibility in a piece for the Detroit Free Press.)  Castellanos has never played first base as a pro ballplayer, though it would help his trade value — and perhaps also his future free agent value — if he could demonstrate at least passable glovework at even the least-demanding position on the field, rather than being a major negative in right field.

Stewart also isn’t much of a defender, so it would be a big help to Detroit’s pitching staff if the spacious Comerica Park outfield didn’t have Stewart and Castellanos both regularly manning the corner positions.  Granted, the Tigers aren’t prioritizing winning in 2019, but it doesn’t help a young pitcher’s development if flyouts and singles are being turned into singles or extra-base hits due to poor outfield defense.  While the Tigers have talked to Castellanos about an extension in the past, such a contract might only happen if the team is really intent on sticking with him as a right fielder.  A move to first base might signal that Castellanos’ time in Detroit is nearing an end, as the Tigers certainly don’t want to clog up both the first base and DH spots with he and Cabrera for the foreseeable future.

Cabrera, of course, is still set to earn at least $162MM through the 2023 season, making him one of more untradeable players in baseball due to his age (36 in April) and an increasing number of injuries over the last two seasons.  Jordan Zimmermann’s contract also makes him too hefty to be dealt, even if he did slightly rebound to post the best of his three seasons in Detroit.

With those two veterans unlikely to be discussed in any realistic trade discussions, that leaves Castellanos, Michael Fulmer, Shane Greene and Alex Wilson as possible candidates to be dealt before Opening Day.  Greene had a brief DL stint in July that may have scuttled his chances at a midseason trade, and while the Tigers would be selling low in the wake of an inconsistent season from the closer, his peripherals indicated a much more solid performance than Greene’s 5.12 ERA would indicate.

The Tigers received a lot of calls Fulmer last winter and even throughout the year, and the 2016 AL Rookie Of The Year will still get interest given his four remaining years of team control as a Super Two player.  Fulmer didn’t do much to help his value, however, after posting a 4.69 ERA over 132 1/3 innings and allowing a lot of hard contact along with spikes in his home run and walk rates.  Barring a blow-away offer from another team, I wouldn’t expect Fulmer to be traded this offseason while his stock is at its lowest, as it makes more sense for Detroit to hope for a bounce-back performance in 2019.

Besides Fulmer and Zimmermann, the Tigers project to have Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Blaine Hardy rounding out their starting five.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see teams ask about the latter three in trade discussions, and could at least be considered as trade pieces by the Detroit brass. Boyd was solid last year and could draw some interest from teams looking for controllable starting pitching, though he hasn’t yet shown a lofty ceiling in the big leagues. Norris has long been seen as a talented pitcher, but has yet to harness his promise. Hardy, meanwhile, is already 31 and did show some unexpected potential as a starting pitcher last year. It’s arguable he’s the likeliest trade candidate of the bunch, though interest isn’t likely to be too intense.  He could be a versatile piece for the right organization, but the Tigers might simply prefer to keep him themselves.

Whether or not any existing options are removed from the mix, there’ll be a need for some innings. The Tigers signed Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano as low-cost rotation help last offseason, with Fiers eventually netting Detroit two pitching prospects after the right-hander was dealt to the A’s in August.  Expect the Tigers to make at least a couple of veteran signings for the rotation and bullpen in this same vein, and a reunion with Liriano wouldn’t be out of the question, even if he seems more like a LOOGY at this point than a starting pitcher. Getting through games may require some creativity for skipper Ron Gardenhire. Using an opener for at least one of the rotation spots would be an interesting way of keeping Norris and Hardy fresh, and of breaking prospects Beau Burrows and Matt Manning into the majors if they’re ready for a late-season promotion.

All things considered, despite having some obvious needs, it’s hard to know whether the Tigers will fulfill them with significant MLB acquisitions. The payroll is well below its recent high-point, when it sat just below $200MM to open the 2017 season. But the club hardly seems ready to begin adding veteran pieces for the future, so any larger expenditures would likely occur only if there’s a sterling opportunity to achieve value. On the potential sell side, Fulmer, Greene, and perhaps Castellanos all may be better candidates to be dealt after (hopefully) building up value during the course of the season. Suffice to say, it could end up being another relatively quiet offseason in the Motor City.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Marlins will enter the offseason focused on trading some veterans and gathering up as much young talent as possible.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Miami Marlins Payroll Information]

The Marlins have already knocked out a key piece of offseason business, landing Cuba’s Mesa brothers off of the international market. Elder brother Victor Victor Mesa may not be too far from the majors, though surely the Miami organization will take care not to rush him.

After all, there are no expectations that the team will be competitive at the MLB level in the near future. The Marlins won 63 games in 2018 after an offseason chock full of change. Most of the veteran players that weren’t dealt over the winter, but could be moved over the summer, ended up heading out the door.

That’s not to say, of course, that there weren’t some exceptions. First and foremost is catcher J.T. Realmuto. While the organization insists it intends to pursue an extension with the 27-year-old, who emerged in 2018 as arguably the game’s best overall backstop, it’ll be hard pressed to convince him to sign on (at least, at a palatable rate of pay).

It seems quite likely, then, that the Marlins will at least entertain trade offers. Perhaps it’s likelier still that the club will once again act as auctioneer, asking rivals with interest in Realmuto to come forward with offers. With two more years of affordable control remaining, Realmuto has a rather appealing contractual situation to go along with his on-field excellence and a significant amount of demand at the position.

The Marlins will need to choose wisely from the offers they receive on Realmuto, assuming that’s the route they take, because he’s the last top shelf label behind the bar. That said, the club does have some other candidates to move.

Starter Dan Straily is arguably the next-most valuable veteran asset, though rough peripherals lurked behind his 4.12 ERA from the 2018 campaign. Left-handed-hitting utilityman Derek Dietrich has produced above the league average with the bat in each of the past four seasons, though his glovework isn’t much-loved by metrics. And though he hasn’t drawn much interest over the past year, second baseman Starlin Castro has turned in consecutive solid campaigns and would seemingly represent a useful piece for the right organization. Finally, it’s not too hard to imagine southpaw Adam Conley being moved; interest may not be all that great, but he has had his moments and is still affordable and controllable.

Other potential trade assets seem less likely. The Marlins would dearly love to free their payroll of some of what’s owed to Wei-Yin Chen and Martin Prado, but it’s hard to imagine either will be candidates to move unless and until they show some life in the first half of the 2019 campaign. Dealing more youthful players likely won’t make a ton of sense, though perhaps it’s not possible to rule that out. Drew Steckenrider has loads of cheap control remaining, but he’s a reliever and therefore arguably ought to be cashed in if the price is right. Starter Jose Urena, who is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, probably shouldn’t be taken off the shelf entirely. It’s always possible another team will come calling with an offer that’s too good to pass up, as the Marlins themselves did to acquire Straily.

If it seems as if this post has dwelled quite a bit on what the Marlins might part with, well, that’s because the time still doesn’t seem ripe for this club to begin building up in earnest. What does the MLB roster need, in particular? Talent, anywhere and everywhere.

Indeed, third baseman/corner outfielder Brian Anderson is arguably the only youthful position player who has fully locked up a roster spot before camp opens. Otherwise, beyond the short-term veterans mentioned above — any one of whom could be traded — there’s immense uncertainty. After a nice 22-game run at the plate, long-time minor-league slugger Peter O’Brien arguably has the inside track at first base, which he could share in part with a healthy Garrett Cooper (who’s also a possibility in the corner outfield). JT Riddle could handle a chunk of the time at short. In the outfield, Lewis Brinson might be allowed to sink or swim in the bigs but could also end up back at Triple-A. Monte Harrison isn’t far from getting his first shot and Magneuris Sierra is also among the other near-term possibilities.

Given that state of affairs, there’s opportunity aplenty in Miami, which should make it a popular destination for young-ish castaways looking for a shot at the big leagues. The Marlins front office will no doubt look for ways to take advantage of the situation, including waiver claims, the Rule 5 draft, minor-league signings, and trades for players that don’t quite fit on other 40-man rosters. At the end of the day, there isn’t a single position on the diamond where existing options will cause the club to shy away from taking a low-risk chance on a player they really like. (Even Anderson, after all, isn’t locked into a single position.)

The state of affairs is a bit different on the pitching side, though there are quite a few openings there as well. The Fish hooked some interesting arms last year, with Caleb Smith and Trevor Richards emerging as cost-efficient starters with some promise. Since the Marlins will want to see if Chen can pitch his way back into a tradeable asset, the starting five cold be set with Urena and Straily.

Of course, the Marlins could choose to be aggressive and find a way to put top prospect Sandy Alcantara back in the rotation despite his walk problems in a six-game stint in 2018. There are also quite a few other young starters on the 40-man — most notably, out-of-nowhere righty Pablo Lopez — which perhaps provides added impetus to the notion of dealing away one or more of the veterans.

There are pitching options, to be sure, but that doesn’t mean the Marlins will hesitate to pick up intriguing rotation pieces should they see a way to do so at a nice value. If that creates any 25-man and/or 40-man roster pressures, then the leftover arms can slide into a bullpen that is quite light on sure things. Having already traded away Kyle Barraclough, the Marlins’ most experienced relievers are now pitchers like Conley, Nick Wittgren, and Jarlin Garcia. While existing players can fill out the relief corps, it’s another area that’s fully susceptible of improvement.

In this situation, it’s hard to imagine the Marlins really even having much preference at all other than to get the most talented possible players into the organization. There’s little sense in resolving would-be logjams before they exist. While that makes for a rather boring offseason preview piece, it also leaves the door wide open for a creative and fruitful winter.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Mike Scioscia’s 19-year run as the Angels’ manager officially ended after the team’s last game, leaving the team with an immediate bit of business to handle.  Speculation initially focused on Ausmus and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez, though the Halos reportedly considered up to 10 names for the job, including such popular managerial candidates as Brandon Hyde, Joe Espada, Rocco Baldelli, and Omar Vizquel.

In the end, the team stayed in-house by hiring Ausmus, giving the 49-year-old his second crack at running a Major League team.  Ausmus posted a 314-332 record over four years as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17, winning the AL Central in his first year in Detroit but ending his tenure on the sour note of a 64-98 season that prompted the Tigers to enter into a rebuild.  Ausmus received some mixed reviews during his first managerial stint, though it didn’t stop him from being considered for several other openings — he interviewed with the Reds this month and with the Red Sox last season, and also received interest from the Mets and Phillies for their managerial vacancies in 2017.

Ironically, Ausmus now finds himself in a similar situation to the one he faced upon his initial hire with the Tigers.  He’ll again be taking over a team with several veteran stars on large contracts, and an expectation to win immediately.  The catch is, Ausmus inherited a perennial contender in Detroit, whereas the Halos have just one postseason appearance in the last nine years and haven’t even cracked the .500 mark since 2015.

This being said, Los Angeles is facing quite a bit of urgency to get back into contention in a very tough AL West.  Only two seasons remain on Mike Trout’s contract, and while the club is expected to discuss an extension with the superstar outfielder, one would think Trout would need to be firmly convinced that the Angels are on an upward trajectory before he even considers another deal with the team.  Trout has repeatedly spoken of his desire to win, after all, and he has only three postseason games (and zero wins) to show for his time in L.A. despite posting numbers that have already generated “best player ever” buzz.

A Trout extension would be by far the biggest achievement for the Angels this offseason, though looking at things from Trout’s perspective, it would probably be more logical for him to see how the 2019 season plays out before deciding about his long-term future.  He’d have more of a chance to evaluate Ausmus, see how the team’s forthcoming offseason moves play out, and perhaps simply to see if the Angels already have a roster that is capable of winning if it can just stay healthy. Of course, it’s also possible that Trout will simply prefer to test the open market and at least explore a move back to his native east coast after the 2020 season.

Another potential factor in Trout’s decision, and also a matter of much broader import to the franchise, is the rather surprising recent news about the Angels opting out of their lease at Angel Stadium.  We know the Halos still be in Anaheim in 2019, though it remains to be seen if the opt-out could lead to stadium renovations, an entirely new ballpark, or perhaps even a move to a new city, whether it be elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles area or maybe beyond.  This situation will certainly bear watching in the coming months, and could potentially end up being one of the offseason’s bigger subplots.

Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players.  Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup.  The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.

There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half.  Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position.  Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract.  Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season.  Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.

Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup.  Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball.  That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.

The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season).  After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.

Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH.  Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.”  Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help.  On the trade front, a slightly more versatile first baseman like Eric Thames could help at first and also provide corner outfield depth.  In a recent outline of Justin Smoak’s trade market, I cited the Angels as a longshot choice due to Pujols’ presence, though the switch-hitter is an affordable short-term option ($8MM in 2019) who has crushed righty pitching over the last two seasons. Adding a player limited to first base, of course, would make for quite an awkward roster arrangement. Optimally, the lefty bat would come from a player who can also line up elsewhere in the infield. A player such as Asdrubal Cabrera could theoretically make some sense, though it’s unclear how much the club can spend on this need.

If the infield mix could use a boost, it’s equally true that the club will be interested in finding a complimentary piece to put alongside Calhoun. That role fell flat in 2018, as Young struggled with injuries and wasn’t effective. Presumably, the club will pick up a different right-handed-hitting outfielder for the season to come. Among free agents, players such as Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Szczur could receive consideration. There’ll surely also be plenty of possibilities on the trade market.

Looking elsewhere at the bench, the Angels will be open for business in looking for additional depth, likely in the form of veterans on minor league contracts.  After all, there are some other worthwhile internal names to consider.  Jose Miguel Fernandez, Michael Hermosillo, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo are some of the young in-house options, and MLB.com’s Maria Guardado recently opined that the latter two players could potentially challenge Fletcher for a starting gig.  Top prospects Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones both reached Double-A in 2018 and could factor into the big league roster later in the season.

The catcher position looks like the Angels’ clearest opportunity for an offensive upgrade.  Jose Briceno and Francisco Arcia handled the bulk of the work after Maldonado was traded, and the likeliest course of action would be that the two rookies compete in Spring Training for the backup job or potentially a platoon role, depending on who Los Angeles brings into the mix.  There are quite a few known veteran options available in free agency (Kurt Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Maldonado himself) who could fit into a timeshare if the Angels still intend to see what they have in Bricano or Arcia.

The team is no stranger to a big free agent splash, however, so Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos figure to land on the Halos’ radar screen.  Of the two, Grandal is younger, a better pitch framer, and has a less troublesome injury history, though he is also going to require a bigger contract (and could cost a draft pick, if the Dodgers extend a qualifying offer and Grandal rejects it).  The Angels will probably at least check in with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, though L.A. will be hesitant to part with the prospects necessary to land the All-Star catcher.

An improving farm system does give the Halos some notable trade chips to work with, though creating a sustainable future will require discipline. A high-profile trade, then, may not be terribly likely. It’s fair to wonder, though, whether the Angels have the budget space for at least one big new salary.  The team’s Opening Day payrolls have topped the $166MM mark in each of the last two seasons, and Moreno has shown a clear willingness to spend in his time owning the team, with the caveat that the team has always remained under the luxury tax threshold.  The Angels have roughly $146MM on the books for 2019, factoring in the $4.3MM saved in the form of the likely non-tender candidates. Adding one major salary would likely mean increasing the spending line. With a current CBT threshold of $206MM, perhaps that’s a real possibility.

The bulk of the team’s spending this winter, however, is very likely to be directed towards pitching.  Eppler has said that the Angels will be looking at both starters and relievers as they look to augment a unit that has been crushed by injuries in recent seasons.  In 2018 alone, the Halos saw Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Keynan Middleton, Blake Wood, John Lamb, and J.C. Ramirez all undergo Tommy John surgeries, while Nick Tropeano battled shoulder problems all year and Jake Jewell was sidelined after fracturing his right fibula.

Andrew Heaney’s first full season back from a past Tommy John surgery saw the southpaw toss 180 innings, which was one bright spot for the rotation.  Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are the two pitchers who already have a claim to starting jobs, while the group of Jaime Barria, Matt Shoemaker, and Felix Pena will compete for at least one of the remaining spots in the starting five.  Tropeano, Parker Bridwell, and Alex Meyer will be in the mix at least as depth options, and prospects Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez aren’t too far away.  Ramirez could also factor in as late-season depth if he isn’t non-tendered, and while Richards isn’t expected to pitch in 2019, the Angels could try to re-sign him on a relatively cheap two-year deal with the bulk of the money coming when he’s healthy in 2020.

There is plenty of room here for a proper ace, an innings-eating workhorse, or both as the Angels do their offseason shopping.  Expect L.A. to be active in trade talks for any available arms, while Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are the two top names currently leading the free agent pitching market.  Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ are more durable, less-expensive options, with Happ delivering better recent results for the Yankees and Blue Jays.

The most earth-shaking move, particularly within the Los Angeles baseball scene, would be if the Angels could convince Clayton Kershaw to leave Chavez Ravine for Anaheim.  Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years on his Dodgers contract after the season, and would instantly become the biggest target in the pitching market if he did enter free agency.  It still isn’t clear if Kershaw will exercise his opt-out clause, though it be logical for him to at least explore his options, even if he does ultimately want to remain with the Dodgers.

The Angels will certainly be in touch with Kershaw if he does test the market, though they surely won’t be a favorite to land him. They could also consider another Dodgers starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, though Ryu comes with another checkered injury history. The Dodgers have not shied away from loading up on pitchers with questionable health histories, so that could be a strategy the Halos attempt to emulate. There are several other hurlers on the market who’d come with quite some risk. Most intriguing, perhaps, is Yusei Kikuchi, a top Japanese hurler who hails from the same high school as Ohtani.

The Halos bullpen posted middle-of-the-pack numbers last season, though they will boast a host of young arms even with Middleton sidelined.  Blake Parker or Ty Buttrey are the top internal choices for the closer’s job, and there are lot of experienced ninth-inning names available in free agency ranging from rebound candidates (i.e. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland) to the top of the market (i.e. Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia).  With all of the injuries and durability issues within the Angels’ pitching staff, there’s also room for the club to explore using some of their recovering arms as swingmen or extended long relievers, perhaps with an “opener” in the first inning to take a page from the Rays’ book.

Even a moderate amount of pitching stability could’ve helped the Angels at least vie for a postseason berth in each of the last two seasons, as the team is coming off consecutive 80-82 records.  With better health and another solid arm or two, it isn’t a stretch to imagine the Angels getting back into contention, considering that world-class building blocks like Trout, Simmons, Upton, and (even as only a hitter) Ohtani are already in place.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks followed up their surprise run to the NLDS in 2017 by leading the way in the NL West for much of 2018, though an ugly late-season fade (11-24 over their last 35 games) left them with just an 82-80 record.  Now, with the D’Backs facing an already-tight payroll situation and the likely departure of some major free agents, the team could appears to be at a crossroads.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $32.5MM player option for the 2019-20 seasons ($15.MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $14.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout)

Free Agents

[Diamondbacks Offseason Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

The D’Backs spent a club-record $131.56MM on payroll last season, and they’d approach that figure again in 2019 on returning salaries and arbitration numbers alone.  Since Paul Goldschmidt’s club option and Yasmany Tomas’s player option are both virtual locks to be exercised, there’ll be roughly $77.4MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year’s payroll. The Snakes will have to decide whether to dole out a projected $51.125MM owed to a whopping 14-player arbitration class.

Keeping all those players would put Arizona over the $128MM mark, leaving the team ill-equipped to re-sign their two biggest free agents.  Patrick Corbin will be one of the most highly sought-after players on the open market this winter, while A.J. Pollock also projects for a solid multi-year deal, even if he has battled injuries over the last few seasons. Finding suitable replacements at a palatable salary level would likely mean giving up precious young talent in trade.

Whether or not the Snakes view themselves as near-term contenders, then, some paring of arb-eligible players seems likely. Judicious non-tendering might just create enough room to retain a second-tier option like Clay Buchholz or Eduardo Escobar. For instance, $9.6MM could be saved by parting ways with Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, and John Ryan Murphy. It’s possible the D’Backs could be forced to sell low by trading notable arb-eligibles like Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., or Brad Boxberger. All three players are in that unwelcome gray area of perhaps being too valuable to non-tender, yet lacking in trade value in the wake of disappointing seasons. Lamb and Souza at least come with future control rights via arbitration, increasing their value to Arizona. In the case of Boxberger, who struggled down the stretch and is entering his walk year, it could be that he’ll be dangled in trades in advance of the non-tender deadline.

Suffice to say, the Diamondbacks are in a tight spot, and GM Mike Hazen may now be facing the rebuild that many pundits expected to come when he was first hired two years ago.  The general manager has already said that the team will first look to make some trades, and try to “be creative” when it comes to formulating next year’s roster. While a full teardown doesn’t appear to be in the cards just yet, some reshuffling of the deck, at a minimum, seems likely.

Let’s break down the two choices facing the Diamondbacks, beginning with the straight-forward total rebuild option.  In this scenario, you’d see the team shop virtually all of their most valued short-term assets (i.e. Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, David Peralta, Archie Bradley and more) in order to add some much-needed depth to a farm system whose best prospects may be a few years away.  Trading Greinke would be the most obvious way to alleviate the payroll crunch, though his contact is so hefty that the D’Backs might still need to eat some money to facilitate a trade, despite Greinke pitching like one of baseball’s best starters over the last two years. On the other hand, it’s arguable he isn’t owed that much more than he’d be worth in free agency. Some clubs may prefer that three-year pact to a bidding war for Corbin or Clayton Kershaw.

Given the number of quality players on the roster, the D’Backs could shave a lot of financial obligations and also recoup enough big league-ready young talent to hope to return to contention as early as 2021.  The Diamondbacks’ solid roster, however, is also the reason why a “creative” solution might be more palatable to Hazen and company than entering into a full rebuild this offseason.  An argument can certainly be made that the Snakes could aim to contend next season while they still have Goldschmidt — who could also still be an offseason extension target — and then pivot to becoming sellers at the trade deadline if things don’t work out. In that case, the club would be prepared to start the rebuild next winter by selling off the players who are still controlled through 2020 (such as Ray, Peralta, Souza, and Taijuan Walker, assuming Walker recovers well from Tommy John surgery).

The alternative to a sell-off, then, would be strategically carving out some payroll space while still aiming to compete next season.  There are no shortage of possibilities about how the Diamondbacks could try to do this, though obviously it’d be a difficult proposition to truly stay competitive without creating further long-term problems.  It also doesn’t help matters that the D’Backs don’t have a ton of MLB-ready youngsters capable of stepping into spots left open by traded players — the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Kevin Cron, or Kevin Medrano will probably be on the big league roster at some point in 2019, though can’t be expected to be play regular roles on a contender.

Speculation has already begun about a potential Goldschmidt trade, and there’s no shortage of pain in trading away a face-of-the-franchise player who has hit at a borderline Cooperstown-level pace for virtually his entire career.  As painful as it would be to deal the star first baseman, however, it would also be the most boldly pragmatic move Hazen could make.  Goldschmidt is only controlled through 2019, he’d net easily the biggest trade return of any veteran asset on the roster, and there are several other first base options available in trades or in free agency who could at least partially replicate Goldschmidt’s production.  This is just my speculation, but if the D’Backs can find a trade partner with enough payroll space, they could move both Goldschmidt and Tomas in the same deal, taking a fairly light prospect return for the sake of getting Tomas’s albatross contract off the books.  This would create a ton of additional payroll flexibility, though the team would have to have a clear strategy in mind to reinvest the money wisely — not only to boost the 2019 outlook but also to avoid unwanted long-term obligations.

It’d be an awfully bold strategy, to be sure, but moving Goldschmidt could help Arizona address several other holes around the roster.  Center field is the most obvious area with Pollock’s likely departure, as Jarrod Dyson is more suited as bench depth than as a viable everyday option.  The D’Backs are also hoping that Souza and Lamb can rebound from injury-shortened seasons so that right field and third base can be solidified, though I’d expect the team to pursue some type of right-handed hitting utility infield depth anyway to account for Lamb’s struggles against southpaws.  Re-signing Daniel Descalso would be a boost, as Descalso was a valuable asset filling in for Lamb at the hot corner last year, and also sharing time with Ketel Marte at second base.

Arizona has been only a modest player in free agency during Hazen’s regime, so even re-signing a player like Escobar would require a bigger dive into the open market than the club has been willing to make for the last two offseasons.  The 29-year-old will merit a solid multi-year commitment as he comes off the best season of his career, though it wouldn’t be a bank-breaking price tag, and Escobar does offer more versatility as a switch-hitter and a player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions.  Even if the D’Backs did prefer to utilize Escobar primarily as a third baseman again, he could represent enough of an upgrade over Lamb that the team could take the plunge.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Arizona will hope that Marte can continue to progress at the plate after posting a career-best 104 wRC+ in 2018.  Defensive standout Nick Ahmed will likely remain as the everyday shortstop, and the D’Backs will probably try to take another glove-first approach at catcher, as the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan recently argued that Jeff Mathis was the best positional fit of any of the team’s free agents.  Mathis and Alex Avila were by some measures baseball’s best defensive tandem behind the plate, though if the veteran Mathis can’t be re-signed, the D’Backs could look into adding a catcher with a bit more offensive pop.

Dyson brings enough pluses as a defender and baserunner that the Diamondbacks could use him as the left-handed hitting half of a center field platoon, which would leave Arizona only looking for a righty bat to share time (a free agent like Cameron Maybin would be a good fit in this scenario).  Alternatively, Peralta could be moved into center field, though Peralta probably projects best as a corner outfielder.  The D’Backs might also not want shift Peralta again since, after being installed as the everyday left fielder last season, he delivered the best year of his career, hitting .293/.352/.516 with 30 homers over 614 PA.

Peralta and Ray are the Diamondbacks’ top trade chips if they balk at dealing Goldschmidt, or if Greinke’s contract prevents them from finding a trade partner.  These two are less likely to be dealt, in my opinion, since losing either would drastically weaken a position that is already taking a hit.  Losing both Pollock and Peralta would be a huge blow to the outfield, while the rotation would suffer from losing Ray when Corbin and Buchholz could depart.

Greinke, Ray, and Zack Godley are the only sure bets in the rotation as things stand, with Miller (if he isn’t non-tendered), Matt Koch, and Matt Andriese looking like the top candidates for the final two spots.  Walker will also hopefully re-enter the picture at midseason upon his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is Triple-A depth, and top prospects Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could also be ready later in the season.

There’s certainly room here for Buchholz to return, as the veteran proved to be one of the year’s best minor league signings.  Health is always a question with Buchholz, and his season was prematurely ended by a flexor mass strain in his throwing elbow, though this latest injury could actually work in Arizona’s favor if the team wanted to retain him.  Buchholz’s asking price could fall into a palatable range for the Diamondbacks if other teams are scared off by the elbow problem, and the D’Backs certainly are the most familiar of anyone with Buchholz’s health status.  If Buchholz doesn’t return, the Snakes could look at other low-cost veteran arms to compete for a starting job, or consider using the bullpen and a Rays-style “opener” to address a rotation spot.

Speaking of the pen, the closer’s job is up for grabs after Boxberger’s struggles at limiting walks and homers cost him the role down the stretch.  It’s possible the Diamondbacks could forego a full-time closer altogether, as they adopted a committee approach in September upon removing Boxberger from the job, though I would guess they might bring in an inexpensive veteran reliever with closing experience to provide added depth.  Names like Sergio Romo or former D’Back Fernando Rodney might be fits in this regard on the free agent market.  Arizona could also stand to add a bit of extra left-handed depth, though the team already has an overall solid group of relievers.

As per Hazen, the Diamondbacks have several organizational meetings planned in the coming weeks, and if the club will indeed gauge the trade market first, we may have to wait until the Winter Meetings in December before we get a true sense of the Snakes’ approach for the offseason.  Whether the D’Backs become baseball’s most popular seller or instead attempt to perform a tough balancing act, Arizona is poised to have a fascinating offseason of potentially pivotal importance to the franchise’s outlook.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it.  The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams.  Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades.  It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.

One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon.  Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.

Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019.  Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth.  Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time.  Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.

Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.

One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup.  A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.

The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform.  While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers.  It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.

The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration.  Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered.  It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base.  (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)

There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price.  Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money.  This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.

After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office.  Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018.  This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries.  You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.

More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field.  The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.

Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17.  A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.

Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity.  (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.)  Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.

It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019.  The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.

Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method.  The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.

One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell.  Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades.  Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.

Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation.  Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles.  Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty.  Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.

Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings.  If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results?  If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.

The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo.  Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.

Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups.  After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies.  The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout.  It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.

The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right.  As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.

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