Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR 2018-19 Offseason In Review series. This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks.
NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West
By Jeff Todd | at
Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR 2018-19 Offseason In Review series. This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks.
NL East
NL Central
NL West
AL East
AL Central
AL West
By Connor Byrne | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
It was a relatively quiet winter on the transaction front for the Astros, but an action-packed offseason wasn’t necessary for the back-to-back American League West champions. Although Houston has lost more notable players than it has gained in recent months, the team will nonetheless enter the 2019 season as the runaway favorite in its division and a legitimate World Series contender.
Major League Signings
Trades And Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]
Needs Addressed
A world-class rotation was a staple for the Astros during their two-year run of dominance from 2017-18, a span in which their starters ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.58) and second in fWAR (37.3). While right-handed aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have been at the helm of the group lately, they weren’t in the mix for the entire two-year period. Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. were around for the full run, but the Astros entered the offseason in danger of losing Keuchel and Morton to free agency. Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow & Co. knew the club would have to get through 2019 sans McCullers, who underwent Tommy John surgery in early November.
Given the uncertain statuses of Keuchel and Morton and the unavailability of McCullers, the Astros figured to be aggressive in addressing their rotation during the offseason. However, with Opening Day approaching, they haven’t made any headline-stealing additions to their starting five. That could change if the Astros re-sign Keuchel, who stunningly remains available and whom they have interest in bringing back, but it seems a reunion will only occur if the 2015 Cy Young winner accepts a short-term contract. Unlike Keuchel, Morton’s long gone, having taken a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays back in November. The 35-year-old’s exit from Houston ended a fruitful tenure which began when it signed him to what became a bargain deal (a two-year, $14MM guarantee) entering its World Series-winning 2017 campaign. Even though Morton blossomed in Houston after several mediocre and/or injury-filled seasons elsewhere, the Astros didn’t regard him as a must-keep piece, evidenced by their choice not to issue him a qualifying offer and their subsequent one-year contract proposal.
While Morton was unwilling to say yes to the Astros’ single-year offer, the same wasn’t true for left-hander Wade Miley, whom they reeled in for $4.5MM at the start of February. Now 32, Miley is only a year removed from having to settle for a minor league contract with the Brewers after two straight woeful seasons divided between Seattle and Baltimore. However, the longtime innings eater ultimately pitched his way back to relevance in Milwaukee, where he posted a terrific 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP over 16 starts and 80 2/3 frames. Now, thanks to his 2018 renaissance, Miley’s a lock for the Astros’ season-opening rotation.
It appears Miley and the Astros’ other hurlers will work primarily with Robinson Chirinos, whom they brought in on a low-risk pact after the in-state rival Rangers parted with him. Chirinos, 34, is stepping in for free-agent departures Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado – the latter of whom rejected the Astros’ two-year offer toward the beginning of the offseason. The Astros tried to pull in bigger fish at the position, though, as they showed interest in J.T. Realmuto before the Marlins traded him to the Phillies and pursued Yasmani Grandal prior to his one-year, $18.25MM commitment to Milwaukee. Either Realmuto or Grandal would have given the Astros a clear-cut No. 1 catcher, which they may not have at the moment. Chirinos has typically lived up to the role as an offensive player, to his credit, but he’s no world-beater behind the plate. Conversely, backup Max Stassi carries more questions as an offensive player than a defender. While Stassi was an elite defender in 2018 who also managed solid offensive numbers in the aggregate, his production with the bat careened off a cliff after a red-hot April/May. Nevertheless, having lost out on Realmuto and Grandal, the Astros are banking on the disparate skill sets of Chirinos and Stassi complementing one another in 2019.
Chirinos is one of two new regulars in Houston’s starting lineup, but the other – left fielder Michael Brantley – comes with much more fanfare. The Astros’ headlining offseason acquisition, Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM deal which fell short of contract predictions from both MLBTR and FanGraphs. The longtime Indian has generally performed like a big-money player since his breakout 2014 season, though he was seldom available from 2016-17, when shoulder and ankle injuries robbed him of all but 101 games and stunted his numbers.
Fortunately, Brantley bounced back during his platform season, appearing in 143 games and slashing .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) over 631 plate appearances. Along the way, he struck out a paltry 9.5 percent of the time – the second-best rate in the majors – thereby continuing a career-long trend. It’s worth noting the Astros’ lineup was a bear to strike out even before Brantley showed up, as their offense registered the majors’ second-lowest percentage (19.5) in 2018. Now, an attack which already boasted Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer should be all the more frightening with Brantley’s arrival. Plus, as a rare lefty in a righty-heavy lineup, the 31-year-old will give Houston a bit of variety at the plate.
The Astros had a need for Brantley thanks in part to the free-agent status of switch-hitting utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, whom they’ve since lost to the Twins on a two-year, $21MM accord. Gonzalez’s contract looks like a more-than-reasonable pact Houston easily could have afforded, and the team did show interest in re-signing him. But long before Gonzalez exited in February, the Astros found a contingency plan in Aledmys Diaz, a mid-November acquisition from the Blue Jays. The Astros are preparing Diaz for a super-utility role to help make up for Gonzalez’s loss, yet it may be a lot to ask of the 28-year-old. After all, Diaz has only seen extensive major league action at a pair of positions – shortstop and third base – and is just two seasons removed from a dreadful offensive showing. The good news is that the righty-swinging Diaz rebounded in 2018 to essentially match Gonzalez’s output at the plate (.263/.303/.453 in 452 PAs vs. .247/.324/.409 in 552 attempts). A repeat of that production would be welcome for the Astros, whom Luhnow noted could afford to trade young righty Trent Thornton for Diaz thanks to a backlog of “upper-level pitching.” So, even though it’s anyone’s guess what the Astros will get from Diaz, the trade seems like a worthwhile gamble on the team’s part – especially considering he’s controllable for four years.
Questions Remaining
The presences of Verlander and Cole surely give the Astros’ rotation a high floor, though it’s evident this is a riskier group than last season’s. Missing are Keuchel, Morton and McCullers, who spun a combined 572 innings of above-average pitching in 2018. No single member of that trio – let alone all three – will be easy to replace, though all-world prospect Forrest Whitley, 21, could be one of the rotation’s saviors sometime this season and there are multiple other intriguing young hurlers at or near MLB readiness. Regardless, it would be unwise to rule out further moves from Luhnow, who swung brilliant deals for Verlander and Cole in the recent past and who has at least tried to bring in another mid- to high-caliber arm since last season ended.
The Astros have been connected to Keuchel, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Ray, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn at times dating back to November. The Diamondbacks’ Ray is the lone member of that group who hasn’t changed teams since then, and Houston could circle back to him (or look to another starter on the trade market) during the season if its rotation falls flat. As things stand, it appears the Astros will open the season with Miley, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock backing Verlander and Cole. Despite the stellar run prevention numbers he put up last season, it’s hard to trust Miley, whose strikeout and walk numbers underwhelmed (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and who benefited from an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball rate (5.2 percent, compared to 12.2 percent lifetime). He’s an obvious candidate for negative regression, even if he’s able to continue using his cutter to induce out-friendly contact. Less skepticism is deserved in regards to McHugh and Peacock, who have held their own as both starters and relievers in the majors.
On paper, the losses of McHugh and Peacock from the Astros’ bullpen will hurt the unit, but that’s not to say the club is set up poorly at the end of games. Quite the contrary, actually, as it’s due to receive full seasons from Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly – who joined the team in trades last summer – and continues to boast other healthy, established veterans in Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Chris Devenski. They could be joined by electrifying 26-year-old Josh James, who looked like a front-runner for a starting job before suffering a strained right quad in late February. James, like the rest of the aforementioned relievers, is a righty, and if there’s one quibble with the Astros’ bullpen, it’s the lack of a proven lefty. The team didn’t bring back Tony Sipp, who just signed for a relative pittance with the Nationals, even though he devastated both left- and right-handed hitters last season. The Sipp-less Astros will hope for breakouts from Cionel Perez and Reymin Guduan, a couple hard-throwing southpaws with minimal major league experience.
Meanwhile, with Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer and Brantley in the fold, the Astros will once again have a top-tier offense supporting their pitching staff. There are still some questions in their position player group, however, including: Will last year’s weak defensive showing carry over (Chirinos in, Maldonado out won’t help matters)? Will Diaz emerge as a reasonable facsimile of Gonzalez? Will well-compensated right fielder Josh Reddick rebound from a below-average 2018? How will designated hitter Tyler White follow up a 237-PA season in which he slashed an eyebrow-raising .276/.354/.533 (144 wRC+)?
White won’t have to approach last season’s numbers to properly replace ex-Astro and current free agent Evan Gattis, whose offensive production was pedestrian in 2018. Yuli Gurriel was similarly mediocre, though he remains the Astros’ preferred option at first base. Gurriel doesn’t seem to have a stranglehold on his position (and nor does White on his), however, considering the Astros reportedly pursued Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez and Jose Abreu over the winter. Luhnow has also demonstrated previous interest in Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos, who could again end up on the Astros’ radar in the coming months if they’re not content with their 1B/DH situation. Otherwise, should the Astros need an in-season offensive boost, perhaps they’ll shift Brantley to first/DH or relegate Reddick to the bench to make room for standout corner outfield prospect Kyle Tucker.
2019 Season Outlook
While there are clearly some legitimate concerns with elements of the Astros’ roster, and it’s arguable the team should have been more aggressive to improve it over the winter, the star-laden outfit still looks well-equipped to continue as a major league superpower and a division champion in 2019. Plus, with Whitley and Tucker among the talented youngsters in the fold as potential in-season reinforcements, Houston should only grow stronger as the year progresses, potentially setting it up for another title run.
How would you grade the Astros’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
By Mark Polishuk | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
After a surprising 2018 season, the Rays prepared for a full return to contention with some intriguing trades and the priciest free agent signing in club history.
Major League Signings
Trades And Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable International Signings
Notable Losses
[Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart | Tampa Bay Rays Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
The Rays enjoyed great success with the “opener” strategy in 2018, and they’ll continue to use openers to account for two of their five rotation spots this season. Joining reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and promising but still rather unproven righty Tyler Glasnow is an established veteran, yet one that still seems somewhat “young” in the sense that we’re only entering the third season of the reinvented Charlie Morton.
After nine seasons of decent but unspectacular work for the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies, Morton breathed new life into his career as a member of the 2017-18 Astros. The soft-tossing groundball specialist suddenly turned into a strikeout machine with a 95mph fastball, whiffing 364 batters in just 313 2/3 innings for Houston.
Since Morton turned 35 last November, however, his earning outlook was limited. It was the Rays who made a rare free agent splash to land the right-hander, agreeing to a sizable contract that doesn’t come with risk of long-term entanglements. Geography played a role (Morton and his family live in nearby Bradenton, Florida), though Morton was undoubtedly intrigued at the possibility of joining another young team that may be on the cusp of contention. This isn’t to say that the Rays are about to enjoy a 2017 Astros-esque level of success, yet the club has further established itself as a legitimate contender to reach the postseason, something that would’ve been sounded wild a year ago at this time.
Both last offseason and throughout 2018, Tampa Bay unloaded virtually all of its highest-paid veteran players, yet thrived by acquiring and developing unheralded young replacements who largely outproduced those more established names. This allowed the Rays to feel comfortable in making a big expenditure on Morton — his $15MM salary is almost a quarter of Tampa’s entire payroll.
This financial flexibility allowed the Rays to take a bit of a deeper look into the free agent and trade markets. Beyond Morton, Tampa Bay also had interest in such free agent names as slugger Nelson Cruz and second baseman DJ LeMahieu, while the Rays were also one of the many teams who discussed a J.T. Realmuto swap with the Marlins.
The Rays ended up doing in a different direction to address that latter need at catcher….well, as much as a Rays/Mariners trade can be described as “different” given the two clubs’ extensive history of deals. This time, the Rays and M’s combined on a five-player swap that saw Mallex Smith go to Seattle, while Tampa Bay added Guillermo Heredia to more or less take Smith’s place in the outfield, plus acquired catcher Mike Zunino to bring some stability behind the plate.
Zunino is well-known as one of the better defensive catchers in baseball, with outstanding pitch-framing and an increasing knack for throwing out baserunners. At minimum, the Rays will add some strong defense and some added pop to their catcher’s spot, as Zunino has 90 homers over the last five seasons. It seemed as if Zunino was rounding into becoming a true offensive force with a .251/.331/.509 season in 2017, yet he took a big step backwards to his old low-average and low-OBP ways last year, with just a .201/.259/.410 slash line over 405 plate appearances. The Rays as a whole cut back on their strikeout rate (25% to 22.4%) from 2017 to 2018, so there’s some hope that a new environment can help Zunino regain some of his 2017 patience.
Such a rebound would also be welcomed from Avisail Garcia, who turned in a huge 2017 but otherwise hasn’t completed a full season with an OBP of over .309. Garcia followed up his career year with a disappointing .236/.281/.438 performance over 385 PA, leading the White Sox to decline tendering a contract. The outfielder was hampered by injuries last year, however, leading the Rays to take a relatively inexpensive risk ($3.5MM) to see if Garcia can get on track.
The Rays’ offseason was also highlighted by a pair of three-team trades, one of which involved the Indians and (again) the Mariners. Tampa Bay’s involvement in the trade saw the Rays essentially swap former top prospect Jake Bauers for former Cleveland infielder Yandy Diaz, giving the Rays a bit more multi-positional versatility since Diaz can also play some third base, while matching Bauers’ skillset as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Minor league righty Cole Sulser and his eye-opening 12.3 K/9 at Triple-A also came to Tampa in the deal, giving the Rays another bullpen depth option.
A few years after being linked to Jurickson Profar in trade rumors, Tampa Bay was finally part of a Profar deal, only as the third team in the mix while the Athletics ended up with the infielder. The Rays’ contribution was three minor league pitchers to the Rangers, while picking up righty Emilio Pagan and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick (currently the 39th overall selection) from Oakland. Pagan will help fill the void left by veteran Sergio Romo in the bullpen, though Pagan’s tendency to allow a lot of fly balls and home runs will be tested in the AL East.
Questions Remaining
This is just speculative, but since the Rays picked up an extra draft pick in the Profar trade, perhaps that might make the team more open to surrendering a high pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent….like, for instance, Craig Kimbrel. The Rays are at least keeping an eye on Kimbrel’s market to see if the closer would be willing to take a shorter-term (one or two years) contract, though it may still be something of a longshot that Kimbrel ends up at Tropicana Field.
Adding Kimbrel would certainly be a major way of addressing a closer position that otherwise didn’t seem like a big priority for the Rays this winter. The team seems comfortable using Jose Alvarado as its primary ninth-inning option, though it’s fair to assume that several others will get some save opportunities as Tampa mixes and matches its arms. Ryne Stanek and Diego Castillo, for instance, could be used in the ninth inning when they’re not being used as openers.
Beyond just the personnel involved, the bigger question might be simply whether lightning can strike twice for the Rays and their opener strategy. Opponents have now had more time to get a book on Tampa Bay’s young relief corps, of course, and the uniqueness of the opener may fade now that other teams are also planning to use a one-or-two inning “starter” for one of their rotation spots. Adding Morton to chew up quality innings should help keep the bullpen fresh, though the Rays will again be performing a constant juggling act of their relievers, including a frequent shuttle to and from Triple-A Durham.
The same question could be asked of the position players. Only five Rays players topped the 400-PA plateau last season, in part due to some key names being added or subtracted in trades, but also due to the team’s roster full of players with multi-position capability, able to be moved in and out of the lineup as a game situation warrants. This season’s Rays have more of a set starting lineup on paper, though it will require some players to prove themselves capable of regular duty.
Trading Smith, for instance, puts pressure on Austin Meadows (a former top prospect) to take the leap in his second MLB season. Shortstop Willy Adames is being counted on for his own second-year improvement, while Joey Wendle will have to avoid a sophomore slump. Garcia is a total wild card. Ji-Man Choi delivered big numbers over 189 PA for Tampa last season, and will now have to produce over a full year as a frequent choice as the designated hitter. For Kevin Kiermaier and Matt Duffy, their primary challenge will simply be to stay healthy (Duffy has already run into problems in this regard).
As noted earlier, the Rays looked at some bigger names this winter, and did come away with Morton to help stabilize the rotation. Zunino also fills a need behind the plate, even if he isn’t Realmuto. For the remainder of the everyday lineup, however, it’s hard to argue that signing someone like Nelson Cruz wouldn’t have provided a clearer hitting upgrade. After Edwin Encarnacion was dealt from Cleveland to Seattle as part of that three-team deal, there was speculation that Encarnacion would then be flipped to Tampa, though such a follow-up move never materialized.
The Rays ended up with the much less-experienced first base/DH combination of Diaz and Choi, with others (Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe) likely to cycle through first base and much of the roster likely getting a DH day when warranted. Still, despite Choi’s impressive 2018 and Diaz’s highly-touted exit velocity numbers, Tampa might not have made much of a step up from Bauers and C.J. Cron, let alone the boost that a Cruz or Encarnacion would have provided.
The Rays designated Cron for assignment and watched him leave on waivers rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM arbitration salary. Bauers was moved after just one MLB season, following two years as a top-100 ranked prospect. It says something about Tampa Bay’s belief in Diaz that the team was willing to move Bauers this early in his career, though it could also speak to the sport’s general devaluation of players (like Bauers) who are limited to playing only first base and a little bit of subpar corner outfield.
2019 Season Outlook
The Red Sox and Yankees are both at least a few steps ahead of the Rays in the AL East, though Tampa Bay compares pretty favorably to the rest of the American League’s wild card contenders. Given the front office’s penchant for reshaping its roster on the fly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays attempt a big midseason trade if they’re in the playoff hunt.
How would you grade the Rays’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
By Tim Dierkes | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The White Sox pinned most of their offseason hopes to signing Manny Machado, and instead wound up adding a series of largely unexciting veteran players.
Major League Signings
Options Exercised
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
Of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, the White Sox reportedly showed some level of interest in at least seven of them. Their most high-profile pursuit was that of Manny Machado. Prior to the Winter Meetings, GM Rick Hahn tried to make it clear to reporters that he couldn’t “guarantee by any stretch that we’re going to convert on these targets.” Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel notwithstanding, the dust has settled on the offseason, and the White Sox failed to convert on any premium player they were targeting.
Looking at what the team actually did, this was a fairly typical recent White Sox offseason. It’s just that fan expectations tend to balloon when front office brass is meeting with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, we know the team can afford either player, and it’s about that time where a rebuilding process draws to a close. The club hung around in the Machado bidding til the bitter end, strangely acquiring Manny’s brother-in-law Yonder Alonso and good friend Jon Jay presumably to help close the gap on an offer that fell far short. Here’s White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams attempting to defend the team’s eight-year, $250MM final offer, as reported by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times: “People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s. The average annual value was $31 [million] and change. So it was about years guaranteed. So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him. All he had to do was basically stay healthy.” This is almost comical, as is Williams’ assertion that if the team had gone further financially, fans would have been “much more disappointed in our inability to keep this next core together.” The key piece of that core, Eloy Jimenez, remains a minor leaguer for the purpose of gaining control of his 2025 season. The team’s “next core” literally hasn’t reached the Majors yet, but giving Machado an extra two years would break it up?
Chicago’s offer to Machado came in a full $50MM shy of the contract he received from the Padres. The Sox thought this star free agent was going to be swayed by a ridiculous $100MM in additional non-guaranteed money, or by the acquisition of his buddies? Going into free agency, there was never a reason to think $250MM would get the job done for Machado or Harper, so why even try? Hahn’s claim that the Sox made a “very aggressive offer” is patently untrue. With every large market team sitting out Machado’s market and the price coming in much lower than it could have been, the White Sox still never got close. After losing out on Machado, Hahn pledged, “The money will be spent. It might not be spent this offseason, but it will be spent at some point. This isn’t money sitting around waiting to just accumulate interest. It’s money trying to be deployed to put us in best position to win some championships.”
Perhaps Hahn said that so that Sox fans will dream about signing Anthony Rendon or Xander Bogaerts next winter, but the Machado progression hardly inspires confidence that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to outspend the field for a premium free agent. When Reinsdorf last did that by signing Albert Belle – over 22 years ago – Bud Selig and the owners were stunned that “the owner who’s railed the loudest and longest about curbing player salaries has just broken the bank,” wrote Jon Pessah in his 2015 book The Game. There’s little reason to think Reinsdorf will shatter precedent again.
Given the self-imposed $250MM limit on Machado, the White Sox knew they weren’t going to get close on Harper. The White Sox certainly explored other avenues, including upgrades at catcher. They made a multiyear offer (terms unknown) to Yasmani Grandal, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic. And the Sox were “in the mix” for J.T. Realmuto, according to Ken Rosenthal. The White Sox had moved on from last year’s tandem, Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith, deciding someone new should pair with Welington Castillo in 2019. They went with non-tendered former Tigers catcher James McCann. Patrick Nolan of Sox Machine disparaged the choice, writing, “The White Sox’ young pitchers have had the misfortune of throwing to tiny strike zones and guys who let the ball get away, and McCann’s poor receiving and pitch-blocking will help continue that trend.” It’s particularly painful to see a pitcher’s dream backstop, Martin Maldonado, sign with a division rival for the same contract (although Maldonado’s asking price at the time McCann signed had not yet fallen to this level).
The White Sox made reasonable efforts to address their bullpen this winter, trading Narvaez for Colome in November and signing Herrera in January. Colome is under team control through the 2020 season, though his salary in that season will climb even higher than this year’s $7.325MM. He’s a solid reliever who stands a good chance of serving as the team’s closer. They also signed Herrera to a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third season. Herrera had surgery in September to repair a torn Lisfranc ligament in his foot, but he’s made his Cactus League debut, implying the procedure may not affect him during the 2019 season. Herrera’s got some other red flags, such as 2018’s declining strikeout and ground-ball rates, but the 29-year-old still throws 97 miles per hour and has a chance to be a major asset to Chicago. Along with holdovers Nate Jones and Jace Fry, this could be a decent bullpen, especially compared to the cumulative work of last year’s unit. The White Sox reportedly showed interest in Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, and Joe Kelly before they signed elsewhere.
With highly-regarded pitching prospect Michael Kopech out for 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and James Shields gone to free agency (though technically still unsigned), the White Sox reportedly poked their head in on free agents Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, and Nathan Eovaldi, before ultimately trading for Ivan Nova in December. Nova, owed $8.5MM in 2019, is a pitch-to-contact, homer-prone veteran who projects for an ERA around 4.60. If you’re looking for a veteran starter who could potentially be flipped for something interesting in July, Nova doesn’t qualify. Nor does Ervin Santana, who signed a minor league deal but seems likely to eventually earn the team’s fifth starter job.
“Fundamentally this is a baseball deal,” Hahn told reporters upon acquiring Alonso from the Indians in December, but that claim hardly stands up when looking at the types of contracts that comparable first-base-only sluggers received this offseason (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link). I again turn to Patrick Nolan of Sox Machine, who explains that adding Alonso at designated hitter will “either eat into Daniel Palka’s plate appearances or force everyone to watch Palka play the outfield more often,” while it also “helped out a division rival with $8 million in cash relief.” That’s a little harsh, but in Nova and Alonso, the White Sox took on $17.5MM for a pair of players projected by Steamer and ZiPS to be worth about one WAR apiece in 2019. It feels like spending money just to spend money.
Jay, his friendship with Machado aside, is an acceptable veteran stopgap for a club that parted ways with longtime right fielder Avisail Garcia. Top prospect Eloy Jimenez will start the season at Triple-A after being optioned just hours ago — presumably to “work on his defense” or another semi-vague reason that will be resolved once he cannot accrue a full year of service time in 2019 (as is commonplace throughout the league with this caliber of prospect). Until Jimenez arrives, none of the White Sox outfielders look like part of their next contending team.
The truly baffling aspect of Chicago’s offseason additions is that had they simply condensed the money offered to that patchwork collection of stopgaps, those resources could’ve been utilized to up the offer to Machado — a transformative player who’d move the needle considerably more not only in 2019 but in the long term. The near-$50MM they spent on this offseason’s group is worth much more than $50MM in 2028-29 dollars. Perhaps the Padres would’ve been willing to further increase their proposal had the ChiSox presented a legitimately competitive offer, but the approach would’ve been much more understandable.
2019 Season Outlook
Fangraphs projects the White Sox as a 70-win team this year, virtually no different from the Tigers or Royals. Given the team’s run at Machado, this may seem like an incredibly disappointing offseason, but go back to something Hahn said in September 2017: “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us.”
So, it seems the club was willing to sign Machado or Harper at a relative bargain price and maybe make a little noise in ’19, but that duo’s free agency was always coming a year before the White Sox thought their team would be ready. The White Sox have just $12.5MM committed to two players for the 2020 roster, so they’ll again enjoy major payroll flexibility in the offseason. Generally, you don’t get a fourth year for an intentional rebuild, so it’s 2020 or bust for this group.
How would you grade the White Sox’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users.)
By Ty Bradley | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The ever-patient Pirates are again in wait-and-see mode after spending much of the offseason on the sidelines.
Major League Signings
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
The mid-decade Pirates, bursting at the seams with full-burn stars and depth for days, as well as a top-end farm system, were as well-positioned as any in recent memory for the Big Move, a three- or four-for-one swap that would have catapulted the team to the top of the National League. It never came. Fan clamoring fell on deaf ears in the team’s front office, which preferred to lean on its then-renowned player development system to unveil its next crop of new-wave talent, already, it often seemed, in full bloom.
Struggles followed. Stalwarts Starling Marte and Jung-Ho Kang were sidelined with off-field issues, Andrew McCutchen was an avatar of his former self, and the top end of the rotation looked more like the middle. The team’s vaunted Shark Tank bullpen had been drained. Nascent cornerstone Gregory Polanco had hit the skids. The window, suddenly, seemed closed.
But as the team plodded through a mediocre 2018 season (and after McCutchen and Gerrit Cole had been sent packing in the months prior), the brass finally showed its sword, sending out multiple top prospects in deadline deals for late-inning reliever Keone Kela and peripheral ace Chris Archer. It felt like Pittsburgh, so often content to fold, may finally be primed to throw its chips into the middle.
Alas, as the offseason’s nears its end, the Pirates are still playing coy. The team didn’t spend more than $3MM on a single free agent this offseason. Its only major trade – an attempt to shore up shortstop, its weakest position in recent years – brought back a 27-year-old utility player in Erik Gonzalez as its headliner. Gonzalez, who’s slashed .263/.292/.389 in just 275 career MLB plate appearances, will get short’s first crack this season.
Another former Indian, Lonnie Chisenhall, was brought in on the cheap for corner-outfield insurance; the team will cash in the policy immediately, as Gregory Polanco, who finally broke out in ’18, will miss at least the first few weeks with a shoulder injury. Chisenhall’s last two seasons have been marred by injury; they’ve also been fueled by rockets, as the 30-year-old has posted successive career-highs in hard-hit rate, OBP, and wRC+, and appeared finally to be fulfilling his early-career promise when on the field.
Jung Ho Kang, the soon-to-be 32-year-old third baseman, is the real wildcard here. The team would like to find regular at-bats for Colin Moran, but Kang, who’s posted a team-best 129 career wRC+, could anchor the lineup if he can somehow regain his form. After multiple DUI arrests in his native Korea, and a sexual assault charge levied in his brief time in the states, Kang’s leash will be short – too long, still, for some fans, but the Pirates clearly know what they have in the former MVP of the KBO, and will be over the moon if he can at least approximate his mid-decade output.
Under-the-radar bullpen pickups Lyons, Maurer, Barrett, and Liriano (once a key figure in the team’s renaissance) endeavor to give the unit the depth it lacked in recent years. If even one can be righted under the mystical tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, the Tank may yet be full again.
Jordan Lyles will bring his steadily-climbing fastball velocity and much-improved curveball to the battle for the fifth rotation spot. Prolonged stretches of effectiveness have thus far eluded him in his eight-year MLB career. By effectively swapping him in for Ivan Nova, the Pirates shaved over $6MM of payroll but parted with Nova’s steady (if unspectacular) output.
Questions Remaining
The outfield unit is set and could be a fairly good one if Chisenhall is healthy and Marte and Corey Dickerson can repeat their 2018 efforts. Melky Cabrera is presently battling with J.B. Shuck, Patrick Kivlehan, and Nick Franklin for a roster spot and a reserve role. They’ll have to beat out 40-man members Pablo Reyes and Jose Osuna for a seat at the table.
Catcher (Francisco Cervelli and Jacob Stallings, pending the return of Elias Diaz) and first base (Josh Bell) are settled. Otherwise, there are even greater questions in the infield but also quite a few possibilities. Third base will be covered at the outset by a Moran/Kang platoon, while Adam Frazier will factor heavily at second and Gonzalez figures to have the inside track at short.
It’s not hard to envision changes at the 4-5-6 positions throughout the season. Shortstop is the real issue here, but the team, with its grounder-heavy staff, has never much seemed to care about offense at the position, instead entrenching sure-handed gamers like Jordy Mercer and Clint Barmes there in the last few seasons. Gonzalez is cut from similar cloth. Former top prospect Kevin Newman – who once ranked as high as #23 overall on Keith Law’s list – is hot on Gonzalez’s heels, though he hasn’t hit much after a midseason promotion to AA in 2016. Kevin Kramer is another well-regarded middle-infield prospect; he has served mostly at second base in the minors. Kramer struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, but only after turning in an eye-opening run at Triple-A. Reyes may also factor in the infield mix. Top prospects Cole Tucker (shortstop) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (third base) are nearing MLB readiness and could force their way up during the season to come.
The back-end of the rotation could be a problem: Joe Musgrove, though possessing of the ideal command/sink combination that drives the organization wild, has a checkered injury history and again dealt with multiple ailments last season. Trevor Williams has solidified his spot, but he rarely misses a bat (his swing-and-miss rate was the league’s third-lowest last season) and ERA estimators (xFIP, in particular) are not optimistic. If either falters, or misses significant time, the Pirates better hope that Nick Kingham (torched in limited action last season) or top prospect Mitch Keller is ready to make the jump. You have to squint to see Lyles as a suitable replacement for Nova, leaving the Bucs heavily reliant upon their preexisting collection of young arms.
What to Expect in ’19
The NL Central looks to be a thresher. The best-case scenario still has the Pirates contending for the Central crown, but it’s perched atop a heap of ifs: Archer returning to his dominant 2013-15 form, the back end of the rotation staying healthy and delivering quality innings, Polanco making a swift recovery and showing no ill effects, Frazier serving non-believers a season-long taste of crow, one of Moran, Kang, or Chisenhall emerging as a middle-of-the-order threat, and good health abounding. The likeliest outcome is that the Pirates hover in equilibrium, still stuck an arm’s-length away from the elusive treasure.
How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason efforts? (Poll link for app users.)
By Mark Polishuk | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
A transformative offseason leaves the Diamondbacks without former franchise player Paul Goldschmidt as well as several other top contributors of recent years. Still, the D’Backs stopped short of a full rebuild, and are hoping to remain competitive in 2019.
Major League Signings
Trades And Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
[Diamondbacks Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
One of Arizona’s primary offseason questions was answered before free agency even began, as the D’Backs inked Eduardo Escobar to a three-year, $21MM extension. After coming from the Twins in a July deadline deal, Escobar obviously enjoyed his brief stint in the desert enough that he chose to forego free agency to remain — perhaps a canny move in hindsight, given how many other comparable free agent infielders had to settle for two or fewer guaranteed years.
With the versatile Escobar locked up so early, the D’Backs had plenty of flexibility as they filled out the rest of their infield picture. As it looks going into Opening Day, Escobar will be Arizona’s primary third baseman, while Jake Lamb will shift over to first base (perhaps in a timeshare with Christian Walker, or maybe Yasmany Tomas if Tomas can earn his way back onto the 40-man roster).
The right-handed hitting Wilmer Flores could also factor into the first base mix, though the former Met played all over the infield during his six seasons in New York. While Flores can help out at several positions, he looks to be line for a good chunk of time at second base now that Ketel Marte is being converted into at least a part-time center fielder.
Marte’s first season as a proper everyday player yielded good dividends, as he posted above-average offensive (104 wRC+, .260/.332/.437 over 580 PA) and defensive (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 UZR/150) numbers as Arizona’s everyday second baseman. While there’s a solid “if it ain’t broke…” type of argument to made that Marte should just remain at second, the D’Backs don’t lose anything by giving Marte at least a part-time look in center field.
On days that Marte isn’t in center, veteran Adam Jones could step into the role in his new capacity as Arizona’s fourth outfielder. Jones is no longer the player he was during his All-Star days in Baltimore, though as he moves into this new stage of his career, Jones still carries value as a player capable of playing all three outfield roles (even if he’s best utilized in the corners) and as a right-handed bat who can spell David Peralta against some tough lefties. Beyond on-field contributions, Jones is also a respected clubhouse leader who can help fill the void left behind by the Diamondbacks’ departed veterans.
Jones’ signing may have been necessitated by Jarrod Dyson’s injury situation, as an oblique problem threatens Dyson’s availability for Opening Day. If Dyson requires a trip to the injured list, the out-of-options Socrates Brito will be retained on the 25-man roster, though Brito’s status could be in question once Dyson returns. For additional depth, Abraham Almonte and Matt Szczur both joined the club on minor league contracts.
The Goldschmidt trade came with no small amount of pain for the D’Backs, which obviously is expected when moving one of the game’s best players. Still, the Snakes hope the trade will provide a good return for years to come, in the form of a catcher of the future (and present) in Carson Kelly along with a potential long-term rotation piece in Luke Weaver.
After just 63 MLB games and 131 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Kelly’s development had simply stalled, as Yadier Molina continues to have the Cardinals’ starting catching job on lockdown. With the promise of more regular playing time available in Arizona, Kelly finally has the opportunity to show the potential that made him a top-100 prospect. Though one suspects Kelly will end up with the bulk of playing time, the Diamondbacks will be juggling at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, John Ryan Murphy, and perhaps even Caleb Joseph, since the team still looks to keep three catchers on its 25-man roster.
Weaver was also a highly-touted prospect out of the St. Louis farm system, and he sparkled over a brief (60 1/3 IP) stint in the 2017 season. His numbers took a step back last season, however, as Weaver posted a 4.95 ERA, 2.24 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 136 1/3 frames. Call it a sophomore slump, or the league simply adjusting better to Weaver after more exposure, yet Weaver was likely only expendable due to the Cardinals’ rotation depth. Many other teams would have clung to a 25-year-old with this talent level, and the D’Backs will now hope that Weaver can fill the void left behind by Patrick Corbin and Clay Buchholz.
Merrill Kelly was another rotation addition, as the 30-year-old will finally look to make his Major League debut. Originally a product of the Rays’ farm system, Kelly made it as far as the Triple-A level before heading overseas for a four-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization. Kelly is an inexpensive flier that could be a real find for the D’Backs if he can carry his KBO form over to the big leagues. It also helps that the Snakes don’t need Kelly to be anything more than a fifth starter at this point, as Kelly is currently lined up behind Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Weaver. (Plus, Taijuan Walker should return in the second half of the season if his Tommy John recovery goes smoothly.)
Speaking of fliers, the D’Backs made a $3.25MM bet on a more familiar MLB name in signing Greg Holland to a one-year deal. It was only in 2017 that Holland turned in a largely-strong season as the Rockies’ All-Star closer. After a lengthy trip through free agency, Holland didn’t sign until landing with the Cardinals on Opening Day 2018. The lack of a Spring Training clearly impacted Holland, as he struggled through a poor season. Since Brad Boxberger was non-tendered and Silvino Bracho has been lost to Tommy John surgery, there’s certainly room for a reinvigorated Holland to earn significant innings in the Arizona bullpen.
Questions Remaining
That “notable losses” category almost speaks for itself, as the Diamondbacks quietly underwent one of the more substantial roster overhauls of any team in the 2018-19 offseason. Some of those departures, of course, can be chalked up to the normal winter roster churn, though there’s no hiding the fact that Arizona lost its best hitter (Goldschmidt), best pitcher (Corbin), plus three more of the team’s top ten fWAR contributors from 2018 (A.J. Pollock, Buchholz, and valuable utilityman Daniel Descalso).
There’s only so many low-cost moves a team can make to fill in so many notable gaps, especially since the 2018 roster wasn’t exactly stacked with world-beaters to begin with, having produced only an 82-80 record. A Lamb/Walker first base platoon has potential, though even at its best it isn’t going to match Goldschmidt’s production. Weaver and Kelly also have promise but are unproven commodities at the MLB level, and it be remains to be seen if Marte can play an acceptable center field.
Cutting some big salaries and still remaining a solid postseason contender is one thing if you’re, for example, the Indians in the weak AL Central. But the D’Backs still look at be at least a few steps behind the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West, leaving Arizona in competition with virtually the entire rest of the National League for a wild card berth. Could the Snakes get lucky if the teams in the stacked NL East and NL Central beat up on each other? It’s possible, if improbable.
In a way, this could be the type of middle ground that GM Mike Hazen was aiming for last fall, as Hazen’s front office looked to “be creative” with its offseason maneuvering. If there’s enough standings congestion that the D’Backs could finish with a top-12 draft pick yet still play enough competitive baseball to keep the fans coming out to the park, that’s a pretty positive result for a team going through a semi-rebuild.
The question remains, however, if Arizona’s half-measures approach won’t leave the team in a similar situation next winter. If the D’Backs don’t see themselves as full-fledged contenders by 2020, then it may have made sense for the club to also trade Ray and Peralta this winter, as both are controlled only for two more seasons. Peralta drew interest from the Braves, while the Phillies and Astros were two of the clubs known to be in on Ray’s services, this winter, though the Snakes didn’t seem too keen on trading either. (Unsurprisingly, Arizona put a very high asking price on Ray in trade talks.)
One player the D’Backs did shop more openly is Greinke, whose enormous $95.5MM remaining salary makes up an untenably large portion of Arizona’s payroll, despite how well Greinke has pitched in the last two seasons. Between that salary, Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list and his personal desire to stay with the Diamondbacks, however, a trade partner wasn’t found.
Greinke’s salary and Tomas’ ill-fated contract account for a whopping $50MM of the Diamondbacks’ 2019 payroll, and then close to $53MM in 2020. Last season’s $131.5MM Opening Day payroll hit a new high-water mark for the team, and that seems to be the current ceiling for what ownership is prepared to spend on the roster, leaving some trimming necessary (i.e. the Goldschmidt trade) to keep salaries in check.
Could the D’Backs spend more? Quite probably, given that they just signed a new TV deal a few years ago, though the club has also been angling for renovations to Chase Field or even a new ballpark altogether in order to increase stadium revenues. But, if payroll isn’t going to be on the rise, it limits what Hazen’s front office can do in order to keep the rest of his core group together. There wasn’t any serious consideration given to re-signing Corbin or Pollock, and there hasn’t been any speculation about Ray or Peralta being extended beyond the 2020 season.
2019 Season Outlook
Marte blossoming in center field, Weaver and Kelly establishing themselves as quality big leaguers, bounce-back seasons from Lamb, Holland, Jones, and Steven Souza — a lot will have to go right for the Diamondbacks to reach the postseason. It seems likelier they’ll end up in the middle of the pack, though perhaps there’s enough talent on hand to keep things interesting. On the other hand, if a slow start leads to Ray, Peralta, etc. being moved at the trade deadline, Arizona could find itself in the lower fifth of a very competitive National League.
How would you grade the Diamondbacks’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
By TC Zencka | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
After the worst season in franchise history, the Orioles’ only must-have for the winter was new organizational leaders.
Major League Signings
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart] [Baltimore Orioles Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
The Orioles as we’ve known them are no longer. General manager Dan Duquette – hired in 2011 to replace Andy McPhail – is gone. Manager Buck Showalter – hired after the All-Star break in 2010 – is gone. Franchise cornerstone Manny Machado – drafted in 2010, in the majors since 2012 – plays in San Diego now. Adam Jones’ tenure was longer than all of those departees; after 11 seasons in Baltimore, he, too, has (likely) played his last game as an Oriole. Four cornerstones from the past eight-or-so seasons, all jettisoned during a four-month period between July 18th and November 3rd – so it’s understandable if those in Baltimore are still feeling a little shell-shocked.
The GM seat remained empty for a curious-long while, but in mid-November Mike Elias finally arrived from Houston. By all accounts, Elias is a good hire, and there’s no reason to think he won’t accomplish at least their infrastructural goals: modernize front office processes, broaden the reach of player acquisition efforts and get the analytics department up to code. Four weeks in, Elias checked the first box of his offseason to-do by hiring Joe Maddon’s bench coach Brandon Hyde as the 20th manager in franchise history. In poaching Elias (from the Astros) and Hyde (from the Cubs), the Orioles now boast a leadership tandem – not coincidentally – from the two most recognizably-successful rebuilding efforts of the last decade.
In terms of player personnel, there really wasn’t much to be done at the outset of Elias’s tenure. With no hope of contending in the near future, filling out roster holes was not a terribly consequential undertaking. The club unsurprisingly pursued a mix of interesting younger players and cheap but solid veteran types to bolster an existing mix that still includes several high-priced holdovers.
If you like underdogs, this shortstop competition is a barnburner: two Rule 5 picks trying to make the jump from Double-A (Richie Martin, Drew Jackson), while minor league signee Alcides Escobar sets the bar. It’s been three years since Escobar produced more than 1 WAR over a season, and he’s never-not-once produced an even league-average wRC+, but he’s a “been-through-the-trenches” guy, he runs the bases well, and he generally won’t fumble the ball when it’s hit right at him. Eric Young Jr. is the best bet of the other minor league signees crack the roster, and he’s off to a good start this spring as he competes for a bench role with Joey Rickard and a slew of IF/OF opportunists like Rio Ruiz, Jackson, Jace Peterson, Steve Wilkerson, Christopher Bostick and Anthony Santander.
On the pitching side, Karns was a nice addition for a rotation lacking depth behind Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, and Alex Cobb. Karns hasn’t pitched in a year-and-a-half, but last we saw him he looked good for the 2017 Royals, striking out 10.13 batter per nine while pitching to a 4.17 ERA (4.48 FIP, 3.71 xFIP). The Orioles get him for $800K this year – the only guaranteed salary the team handed out – and he’s under team control for 2020, making this a pretty good buy for Baltimore.
Questions Remaining
With new leadership in place, the encyclopedic reshaping of the Orioles begins, but there are questions in the short-term that loom even larger (in urgency, if not importance). For instance, how many more chances are they willing to give Chris Davis to get within shouting distance of league-average before donating his roster spot to a youth? Four seasons at $23MM a pop is a lot to eat, but there is a sunk cost threshold, and after a .168/.243/.296 -2.8 rWAR season in 2018, that line can’t be far off.
It seems almost silly at this point to ask whether Davis could regain enough of his former on-field value to allow the team to shed some of his remaining contract. Perhaps that’s still possible, though. And the O’s can hope more realistically that some other players will perform well enough to dump salary during or after the season to come. Bundy, Cashner, and Cobb could all be of mid-season interest. Jonathan Villar and Mark Trumbo might end up holding some appeal. And relievers Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier (if he can get back to health) could be fairly significant assets. There’s not a primo trade piece in the bunch, save maybe Givens, but it’s fair to wonder how long Elias will wait before stripping this team for parts.
Otherwise, the open questions facing this roster are largely those you’d expect from a team in this position. The roster is loaded with players who have yet to establish themselves fully (if at all) in the majors. In most cases, it’s understandable that the organization has decided to allow some space for young players to sink or swim. There’s an argument to be made, though, that more could have been done in the rotation — particularly since Karns has a checkered recent health history.
Mike Wright Jr. looks poised to snag a starting spot, but it’s a little curious the O’s didn’t further explore the bargain bin, especially given their lack of near-term upside arms. David Hess, Yefry Ramirez, John Means, Josh Rogers and Jimmy Yacabonis will happily take the innings, but there’s value even in a rebuild to having vets around. Bounceback candidates such as Drew Pomeranz may have shied away from Camden Yards, but giving a minimal guarantee to someone like Ervin Santana (who settled for a minors deal) might have made sense. Even now, James Shields, Bartolo Colon, former Orioles Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, and others are all just a phone call away.
It would be hard to blame Elias and his staff for seeking some time to evaluate the in-house goods before running out for upgrades that admittedly wouldn’t move the needle. The longer-term questions are of greater importance, and they relate to roster building strategy. The Orioles’ lack of existing international relationships hampered Elias’ ability to put to use their approximately $6MM in international bonus pool money, which they’ve instead doled out piecemeal through trades with the Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and Blue Jays. The development of those overseas connections will be worth tracking in the long-term, while a push to attain Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez would be a nice short-term success were Elias to get him. An early decision point will come in June, when the Orioles make the first overall selection in the amateur draft. Whether it’s high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman or someone else, this is the first major test that Elias and company need to ace.
What to Expect in ’19
On the field, these Orioles aren’t likely to dent the 60+ game gap between themselves and the AL East leaders. Fangraphs projects only the Marlins to finish with a worse record, though they’re not exactly bullish on the Orioles either, pegged for 99 losses and a league-worst run prevention effort. There’s a decent collection of position player prospects who are or soon will be knocking at the MLB door – Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna – but there’s absolutely no rush. In the meantime, Cedric Mullins, Richie Martin, Chance Sisco, Drew Jackson and DJ Stewart should have plenty of leeway to grind through any growing pains. It’ll be a year of tryouts as Hyde hammers the fundamentals and dreams of a future roster filled with athletic, positionally-flexible dirt dogs. Brass tacks: the Orioles are going to lose a lot of baseball games in 2019. Maybe not 115, but the over-under for 2020 draft position should be no higher than 1.5.
How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)
By Jeff Todd | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
The Marlins spun off their best-remaining player and back-filled with some low-cost veterans as their rebuilding effort continues to inch forward.
Major League Signings
Trades And Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
[Miami Marlins Depth Chart | Miami Marlins Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
This time last year, we were looking back at a whirlwind first winter for the Derek Jeter-led Miami ownership group. It was decidedly less hectic this time around, as Jeter (the CEO), president of baseball operations Michael Hill, and their staff methodically worked through a rather limited checklist. If we’re being honest, there were two items on the agenda that greatly outweighed the others in importance.
While much of the baseball-watching world was gearing up for the World Series, the Marlins were finalizing a major move on the international amateur market. The club inked Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. to contracts that came with a combined $6.25MM in bonuses — a relative pittance when compared to free agent spending, but a big chunk of change in relation to the hard-capped international spending pool allocation. Victor Victor, in particular, is seen as a big score for the Marlins. He’s not far from the majors and is already graded in some circles as a top-100 leaguewide prospect.
Working out the numbers on the brothers Mesa meant spinning off assets to acquire additional spending capacity. Sending out young righty Ryan Lillie was certainly understandable, though it was a bit more surprising to see the Fish part with Kyle Barraclough to finish topping off the tank. Though he had a rough second half in 2018 and has always been uncomfortably walk-prone, Barraclough has a pretty lofty established ceiling and remains both cheap and youthful. The Marlins might have achieved much greater value had they waited to see if Barraclough could bounce back early in 2019, or even just explored the market further, but they obviously felt he was an expendable piece in their effort to take advantage of a rare opportunity to land a premium prospect.
Having added three Victors and two Mesas to the organizational depth chart, the Marlins turned to marketing their last holdover core player. Backstop J.T. Realmuto seemed likely to be traded last winter, when the Marlins auctioned off a trio of star outfielders (Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna). But he never drew an offer that suited the club. It was much the same story at the 2018 trade deadline. In the meantime, Realmuto rewarded the risk the organization took by continuing to run him out behind the plate, turning in a big .277/.340/.484 campaign with the bat and establishing himself as the game’s best all-around catcher.
As it turned out, the Marlins oversaw quite an extended negotiating process for Realmuto. Suitors came and went, with a variety of big names reportedly talked about — or, at least, asked for by the Miami club — over several months. The initial packages sought by the Fish were said to be staggering, with the organization no doubt comfortable knowing it would be able to fall back on a very good offer even if it failed to land a true haul. There was no shortage of interest. By the end, nearly a third of the teams in baseball — the Dodgers, Padres, Reds, Rays, Braves, Astros, Yankees, Mets, and Nationals — had pursued Realmuto at one point or another.
It ultimately took a compromise to get something done. Two affordable years of Realmuto’s services was a significant prize, but not one that teams were willing to go wild to achieve. In early February, the Marlins landed an appealing but hardly overwhelming three-part package from the Phillies. The club secured a high-ceiling, high-risk pitching prospect in Sixto Sanchez, who by most accounts tops Victor Victor and the rest of the Miami farm as the team’s top prospect, along with another solid young arm in Will Stewart. Also coming in the deal was young receiver Jorge Alfaro, who brings some upside, a decent floor, and plenty of seasons of cheap control.
Alfaro, notably, will step right into Realmuto’s shoes. While his acquisition is ultimately about the future, it also solved an immediate need. The Marlins had some other holes to plug as well, with the resulting rummaging occupying most of the club’s attention beyond its work on the aforementioned items. If things shake out as hoped, the club will benefit from having a few veterans around before spinning them off to contenders this summer; perhaps it’ll also find a keeper or two among the younger players it brought in.
The Marlins ultimately doled out only $4.5MM in guaranteed money over the winter, though they’ll likely commit some more when their Opening Day roster is announced. On the position-player side, veteran second baseman Neil Walker is expected to occupy first base in Miami. He’ll reunite with former Mets teammate Curtis Granderson, who took a minors deal but will likely be added to the roster and promised $1.75MM to play a significant role in the corner outfield. The upside here is limited. Walker had his worst full season as a big leaguer last year; Granderson is days away from his 38th birthday and ought to be limited to platoon duties. But both players could easily perform up to and past the low salary levels they’ll play for. Walker was a steadily above-average hitter for eight-straight campaigns before turning in a dud, while Granderson was capable of a .242/.351/.431 slash in 403 plate appearances last year.
A few other notable names were brought in on minors pacts. Pedro Alvarez has loads of MLB experience, though he’s not an easy fit for a National League team. The Fish picked up a few middle-infield options — including once-highly regarded prospects Dixon Machado, Deven Marrero, and Rosell Herrera.
Likewise, the Marlins focused on ensuring sufficient bullpen depth. Veteran Sergio Romo will help anchor the pen. He still gets plenty of swings and misses and comes at an affordable rate of pay. Rule 5 pick Riley Ferrell will compete with a host of other low-risk acquisitions, including trade acquisition Nick Anderson, claimee Austin Brice, and minor-league signee Hector Noesi (who’s returning from the KBO). The resulting relief mix is anything but intimidating, but it’ll be a place the Marlins can try out some arms in hope of unearthing some hidden gems.
Questions Remaining
It’ll come as no surprise that there are quite a few holes left on the resulting roster. The Marlins brought up the rear in the National League last year and seem all but assured of doing so once again, particularly with the remainder of the eastern division made up of organizations that have set about improving their rosters this winter. Under such circumstances, the questions aren’t really about the resulting record — it won’t be pretty — so much as the potential for mid-season deals and the development of young talent.
We haven’t yet touched upon the rotation, and that’s because the Marlins didn’t do so all winter long. Dan Straily seemed a potential trade piece but hasn’t drawn enough interest for the Fish to justify parting with his useful, reasonably affordable innings. That could change by the end of July. Now that he’s into his arbitration years, Jose Urena is also a fairly plausible trade chip. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has outperformed his peripherals over the past two seasons, turning in a 3.90 cumulative ERA. The club would surely love to dump some of the money still owed to Wei-Yin Chen, but that’ll require a major turnaround. Otherwise, the Marlins will simply be focused on bringing along some younger arms. Trevor Richards, Caleb Smith, and Pablo Lopez are at the top of the depth chart entering camp, with Sandy Alcantara and Jeff Brigham among those who could factor throughout the season.
As already noted, the relief unit figures to be more of a proving ground than a well-oiled machine. Closer Drew Steckenrider could be a trade candidate if he throws well; he’s still two years away from arbitration but is already 28 years old. It’s not tough to guess that Romo will be watched by rival scouts from the start of the season, with lefty Adam Conley also getting a look after his bounceback 2018. Those two hurlers are the only two members of the relief staff who have surpassed two years of MLB service. Unless Noesi sneaks into the pen, Romo will enter the season with more time on his service clock than all his bullpen mates combined.
There’s quite a lot of room for churn on the position-player side of the roster as well. Up the middle, Alfaro will get a long run. Second bagger Starlin Castro has been a walking trade candidate since he landed in Miami but hasn’t piqued much interest. It’s possible he’ll be moved this summer; otherwise, the team will surely buy him out at season’s end rather than picking up a club option. At this point, he’s keeping the seat warm for Isan Diaz. Shortstop was obviously an area targeted for some competition. Machado and Merrero will push JT Riddle and Miguel Castro in the hopes that one or more of these players finds an extra gear.
In center field, the team will presumably let Lewis Brinson try to sort things out. Brinson can still be optioned down to work out the kinks, though he has already shown he can produce at Triple-A. Prospects Monte Harrison and Magneuris Sierra already have 40-man spots and could get looks of their own if Brinson can’t improve upon a ghastly 2018 showing.
Any of those players could also end up seeing time in the corner outfield as well. To open the season, though, right-handed hitters Peter O’Brien, Garrett Cooper, and Austin Dean are all in the mix to handle things in conjunction with the left-handed-hitting Granderson. Brian Anderson had lined up at times in the outfield last year but is slated to play third base in 2019. The job there is his so long as he can manage anything approaching his strong rookie campaign. Otherwise, Martin Prado will play out his contract in a utility capacity, if he can stay on the field after two lost seasons.
2019 Season Outlook
While the American League is full of rebuilding clubs, the Marlins are the only N.L. outfit that is completely committed to a future-oriented approach. That doesn’t bode well for their win-loss record in 2019, but does mean they can likely look forward to excellent draft position in the summer of 2020. With the team’s key trade pieces already moved, the season to come will be all about developing and identifying potential core pieces for the Marlins’ first contender of the Jeter era.
How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
By Ty Bradley | at
This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
After one last, half-hearted gasp with the scattered remains of 2015’s championship core, the Royals have finally committed fully to a rebuild.
Major League Signings
Trades and Claims
Extensions
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
An ’18 return to 100-loss territory, a land so often populated by the club in the early part of the century, marked a bitter end to the Royals’ most successful run in ages. With meager expectations at most spots on the roster, the club oversaw a rather quiet offseason. Bargain bullpen pickups were collected, some with significant upside, and the Royals again chased down a couple of burners to roam the Kauffman prairie.
Billy Hamilton, non-tendered just before the late-November deadline by the Reds, serves as the big-ticket item here. The 28-year-old checks all of Kansas City’s favorite boxes: speed, defense, a contact-oriented approach (albeit one without much contact), and a strong presence in the clubhouse. The longed-for breakout still hasn’t arrived, as Hamilton’s offensive profile – super-soft contact, a curiously high pop-up rate, and an ongoing inability to work the count – has stayed mostly stagnant in his five career big-league seasons. He’s a savant on the bases, though, maybe an all-time great, and could lead the AL in swipes if he sits atop manager Ned Yost’s lineup for much of the year. And if a plate surge is still to come, if Hamilton starts filling those massive gaps with liners and shows a newfound devotion to the strike zone, the Royals could have the steal of the decade: the speedster has, after all, posted two seasons of almost 3.0 fWAR despite never having eclipsed the 80 wRC+ plateau.
Kansas City, under GM Dayton Moore’s watch, has never soured on its taste for former top prospects (especially of the homegrown variety), and again took a bite this offseason with the inking of utilityman Chris Owings to a minor deal. Owings should see plenty of time in the infield, with much of it likely coming at the hot corner, and he’ll look to a rebound from a career-worst output in 2018. The 27-year-old shares many Hamilton traits, including a longstanding allergy to the walk, but he did up his hard-hit rate to a career-high 39% late season despite an ugly .206/.272/.302 batting line. The contact-over-discipline has philosophy has invited scorn from all manner of pundits during Moore’s tenure, and can at times yield disastrous results (especially, as has been the case with Hamilton and Owings, when the low-walk totals aren’t offset by suppressed K rates), but the Royals remain zealous devotees.
On the pitching side, Brad Boxberger, Jake Diekman, and Drew Storen were all brought in to shore up a shoddy pen that ranked last among all MLB teams with -2.2 fWAR last year. The club needs more than just that aging trio, of course, but it’s nonetheless a massive upgrade from ’18, when failed starters and low-impact mercenaries were expected to fill the shoes of former giants. Boxberger, who was Arizona’s closer for much of last season, at times seems unhittable; other times, he looks lost, missing too often over the middle of the plate, or being unable to find it entirely. Kauffman’s dimensions should negate his gopher-ball itch, but seem an ill fit for Diekman, who keeps most of his contact in play. Storen hasn’t been effective in years, but comes with almost zero risk on a minors deal. His pedigree, too, is right up the Royals’ alley.
Questions Remaining
The Royals did almost nothing to address a torched rotation, adding just Homer Bailey and Kyle Zimmer low-commitment deals. The club apparently has high hopes for Jakob Junis and Brad Keller, both of whom were around league-average in ’18. Both are useful, young, affordable pitchers, though neither scouts nor stats seem to see much in the way of upside. Otherwise, veterans Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy will look to rediscover their form, while Jorge Lopez and Ben Lively are among the other 40-man options. It’s an underwhelming unit on the whole. Help is on the way – the club plucked polished college arms with each of its four first-round picks, all of which came in the top 40 – but still a couple years out. In the meantime, KC might have done well to lock down a Drew Pomeranz/Mike Fiers-type or two (low-cost options with fly-ball tendencies).
With Salvador Perez expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, catcher is now an issue as well. The club has been connected recently with free agent Martin Maldonado, but subsequent reports suggest the team is more comfortable going with a questionable Cam Gallagher/Meibrys Viloria duo. The latter is seen in some circles as a rather intriguing prospect, but he has yet to play above the High-A level apart from a late-2018 taste of the majors. Perez will miss the entire season if he goes under the knife, so a stopgap would fit nicely, but the Royals have always prized in-house options more than outside ones.
The plan for the rest of the roster involves a series of dice throws. KC will give first base to Ryan O’Hearn, who earned a longer look after an eye-opening late-season debut but hasn’t produced much offense in two seasons at Triple-A. Hunter Dozier didn’t thrive in 2018, his first substantial MLB time, but the oft-injured top draft pick appears to be in line for much of the time at third. In the outfield/DH mix, the Royals have a foursome of former top-100 prospects vying for time: Brett Phillips, Jorge Bonifacio, Brian Goodwin, and Jorge Soler. All have flashed talent at times but each is still looking to find his ceiling — or, at least, consistent production and a steady MLB role. There’d be more chances to work with were it not for the ongoing presence of Alex Gordon in left field. He has posted a dreadful .225/.310/.355 slash line since signing a four-year, $72MM deal that will expire at season’s end. It’s possible that one or more of these players could emerge as important pieces, but projection systems don’t love the odds. The Royals could cycle through some of the roster spots occupied by this slate of names if there are any stumbles or if more appealing opportunities arise.
Fortunately for the Kansas City faithful, the one roster spot we haven’t yet touched upon is also the most exciting one. If there’s a potential building block in place, it’s the affordable and controllable middle-infield combination. Adalberto Mondesi finally took over for the clingy Alcides Escobar at short last season and flourished in a full-time role. The 23-year-old son of Raul has a long track record of out-making in the minors – though yes, he was rushed – so there’s still some variability here, but the tools are exciting and projection systems are bullish. Mondesi will turn two with the club’s best player, the recently-extended Whit Merrifield. The Royals bought some cost certainty and a bit of upside in the deal, which arguably makes sense for the player even while increasing the value of his contract rights. While the club has resisted trade interest in the past, Merrifield could still be the juicy trade bait the team desperately needs to kick the rebuild into high gear.
What to Expect in ’19
The full-rebuild Royals could again threaten for the franchise record in losses in 2019. Always the high guys on their farm-produced regulars, Dayton Moore’s staff anticipates the downturn will be a quick one. But the young major-league squad is littered with checkered minor-league pasts and the farm system is generally ranked among the bottom third leaguewide. The team would do anything to avoid reprising its pitiful stretch in the 90s and early aughts, but the current trajectory, kicked off course by a series of missteps and high-round failures in recent drafts, is veering dangerously close to the edge.
How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)
By Mark Polishuk | at
This is the first post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
It was another low-key winter in Motown as the Tigers continued their rebuild process.
Major League Signings
Trades And Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison have spent virtually their entire MLB careers as teammates. That connection will continue for at least part of the 2019 season, as the former Pirates each signed on to form Detroit’s new middle infield duo. The Tigers turned to Mercer to fill the hole left behind by free agent shortstop Jose Iglesias, then later inked Harrison to take over as the everyday second baseman. Such names as Troy Tulowitzki and former Tiger Ian Kinsler were also considered by the team to fill the middle infield gaps.
Mercer and Harrison were inked to relatively inexpensive one-year deals, giving the Tigers flexibility should youngsters such as Dawel Lugo, Isaac Paredes, or Willi Castro force the issue for playing time as early as this summer. By that same token, Mercer and Harrison could both be trade deadline chips if the Tigers find a contending team eager for infield help.
In Harrison’s case, he has particular upside after struggling through an injury-plagued 2018. Harrison also didn’t perform terribly well in 2015 or 2016, though he was an All-Star as recently as 2017. The 31-year-old doesn’t have to do a ton to outplay his $2.5MM contract, however, and Harrison’s overall value could improve if the Tigers shield him from tough right-handed pitching every once in a while. Harrison also could provide extra depth at third base or the corner outfield, though he played almost exclusively as a second baseman last season. That flexibility makes it particularly easy to imagine him as a mid-season trade candidate.
While Harrison himself provides some versatility, his addition moves Niko Goodrum into a superutility role, allowing the Tigers to deploy him all around the diamond as the situation warrants. Veterans Gordon Beckham and Pete Kozma are also at Spring Training on minor league deals, fighting with Ronny Rodriguez to win a utility infield job and potentially pushing Goodrum into seeing more corner outfield time, rather than infield duty. Goodrum could also see substantial action at first base, since Miguel Cabrera is likely to receive the lion’s share of DH at-bats. (Backup catcher John Hicks could again factor at the first base position as well.)
As they did last winter in signing Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano, the Tigers added a pair of low-cost veteran arms to the rotation in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore. Ross turned in a useful 2018 season with the Padres and Cardinals in 2018, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.97 K/BB rate over 149 2/3 innings. It’s probably too much to expect that Ross can recapture his mid-decade All-Star form (prior to two lost seasons due to injury), though he should give Detroit some solid innings.
Moore hopes to follow in Ross’ footsteps with a bounce-back season of his own, as Moore has badly struggled in each of the last two seasons, to the point of being relegated to the Rangers’ bullpen last season. It wasn’t long ago that Moore was one of the game’s most vaunted pitching prospects, so the Tigers are hoping the change of scenery can revive Moore’s career.
Questions Remaining
It seemed as if the Tigers were simply ready to move on from Iglesias, as a case could be made that re-signing Iglesias (10 fWAR over 656 career games) would’ve provided more value than adding Mercer (7.8 fWAR through 821 career appearances with Pittsburgh). Mercer is only the slightly better hitter of the two, and Iglesias is the decidedly better fielder. Considering that Iglesias ended up landing only a minor league deal from the Reds, spending $5.25MM on Mercer seems like something of an overpay.
This being said, it could be that the Tigers simply felt Mercer had more future trade value, given that they’d spent much of 2018 unsuccessfully trying to find a trade partner for Iglesias. Plus, when a club is still in the relatively early stages of a rebuilding plan, it’s hard to argue too strenuously about which veteran was or wasn’t signed to a one-year contract. Mercer, Harrison, Ross, and Moore could all very well be playing on different teams by September, and the Tigers’ focus for 2019 will again be on seeing which of its young players can emerge.
To this end, catcher James McCann was non-tendered after a rough campaign, wrapping up his four-year run as the team’s most frequently used backstop and giving the Tigers a chance to see what they have in Grayson Greiner. (Both Greiner and Hicks may ultimately be keeping the catcher’s spot warm for prospect Jake Rogers in a year or two.) The Tigers didn’t add any veteran outfield help, preferring to stick with incumbents JaCoby Jones and Mikie Mahtook in center field, and giving prospect Christin Stewart a full shot as the everyday left fielder.
Perhaps the most notable element of the Tigers’ offseason was what they didn’t do — namely, trade any of their notable veterans. It probably isn’t surprising that Michael Fulmer and Shane Greene weren’t moved in the wake of down years, as the Tigers don’t want to sell low. Swingman Blaine Hardy drew some interest from Oakland, though nothing came together. All three of those pitchers will very likely still be in a Detroit jersey on Opening Day. None of this group can said to be premium trade chips, and the slowed free agent market also undoubtedly hampered Detroit’s trade negotiations. For instance, if you’re the Athletics, why deal for Hardy when you could simply sign a similar type of pitcher in free agency without having to give anything up in return?
This could also explain why the Tigers non-tendered Alex Wilson, who was projected to earn a modest $2.8MM salary in arbitration. It wasn’t a high figure for an unspectacular but solid reliever like Wilson, though since the Tigers considered him expendable, they decided to simply part ways before the arb deadline since no trade interest could be located.
The most prominent figure in Detroit trade rumors, of course, has been slugger Nicholas Castellanos. The Braves, Mets, and Dodgers were all linked to Castellanos at various points this winter, though none were willing to meet the high asking price the Tigers placed on the outfielder. Detroit was looking for a prospect (or prospects) that would top the compensatory first-round sandwich pick they could receive next winter if Castellanos receives and rejects a qualifying offer and then signs elsewhere. Castellanos himself expressed a desire to be moved before the start of camp, but nothing appealing ever came across the desk of GM Al Avila.
As with the Tigers’ lower-level trade candidates, Castellanos’ market was undoubtedly harmed by the presence of so many other outfielders available in free agency (or in other trades). Furthermore, while Castellanos has posted some fine numbers (.285/.336/.495 in 1790 PA, 67 homers) over the last three seasons, his bat isn’t elite enough that teams are willing to overlook his poor right field defense. To this end, it’s interesting that all of Castellanos’ known suitors were NL teams, though it’s fair to assume that some American League clubs also made inquiries.
If Castellanos keeps up his hitting production, he’ll still get some looks at the trade deadline, and his market will only grow if he becomes even borderline passable as a right fielder. Still, it seems like the Tigers will need to lower expectations about what they’ll be able to receive in a Castellanos trade, given how bat-only players have become far less sought-after than they were even only a few years ago. Topping a QO draft pick may not be feasible — if that’s even a reasonable guide to go by. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press recently observed that the Tigers may not end up issuing Castellanos a qualifying offer in the fall, as he could accept that one-year deal (which will be in excess of $17.9MM) rather than taking his chances on the open market with draft compensation attached.
Castellanos has recently expressed interest in a contract extension to remain in Detroit, a possibility the team has pursued previously. With Cabrera already locked into DH duty through the 2023 season, though, there isn’t much room for the Tigers to carry another bat-only player over the long term. Since Avila has intimated that the Tigers won’t look to really boost payroll until after the 2020 season, keeping Castellanos at a hefty salary doesn’t seem to fit Detroit’s timeline.
2019 Season Outlook
It looks to be another long year for Detroit fans. Even in a weak AL Central, the Tigers aren’t likely to make much noise. Perhaps the club can hope to top the ghastly 64-98 record it has posted in successive seasons, but it’d be hard to expect more than modest improvement given the present state of the roster
How would you grade the Tigers’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
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