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Archives for December 2017

Market Chatter: Rays, Angels, Kintzler, Feliz

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In a series of analytical pieces, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times checks in on the Rays’ offseason in advance of the Winter Meetings. He explains that the club seems to have been slowed, in particular, by the as-yet-unresolved Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani situations. Topkin also analyzes the team’s options for dealing a starter, explaining that the team’s history suggests it’s quite likely that at least one arm will be on the move. He pegs Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi as the likeliest candidates to be dealt. He goes on to discuss the potential for a deal involving third baseman Evan Longoria, who’ll attain full no-trade rights early in the 2018 season, though it’s important to note that there is no clear indication as of yet that he’s on the block.

Here are a few more notes on a slow-moving market for players that has only just begun to show signs of thawing:

  • The Angels are still keeping an eye on the market for corner infielders, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets, even as they continue to direct their immediate attention to Otani. Landing the Japanese star would presumably impact the organization’s plans regarding adding hitters, since he’d occupy some at-bats and perhaps force Albert Pujols to spend more time at first base — thus reducing the need for another corner option, particularly with C.J. Cron having been tendered a contract. Still, Carlos Santana remains an option, per the report. It’s worth noting, too, that Pujols is said to be trimming up and leaving the team with some optimism of a bounceback, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets.
  • As the Cubs look to bolster their late-inning mix after non-tendering Hector Rondon, they have made contact with Brandon Kintzler’s representatives, according to Morosi (via Twitter). The veteran groundball specialist might conceivably add a new element to the Chicago pen, though Morosi cautions talks have not advanced very far at this point. Kintzler has drawn fairly wide interest after a strong campaign with the Twins and Nationals, over which he turned in 71 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA pitching.
  • Right-hander Neftali Feliz is hoping to show he’s healthy and throwing well in a bid to earn a bounceback opportunity, per a report from Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link). The 29-year-old, who caught on with the Royals after being cut loose by the Brewers in the middle of the 2017 season, went in for a checkup from Dr. James Andrews but was reportedly cleared of any arm issues. He’s also set to hold an audition for an unnamed team today. Despite his rough results in his 46 innings in the most recent campaign — a 5.48 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 — Feliz showed a typically strong 96.5 mph fastball and 11.6% swinging-strike rate that matches his career average.

Rogers Communications Considering Sale Of Blue Jays

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Rogers Communications, the Canadian telecommunications company that owns the Toronto Blue Jays, is considering a possible sale of the team, as Natalie Wong of Bloomberg writes. At this point, it seems the potential move is merely in the conceptual stage.

Rogers CFO Tony Staffieri suggests that the entity is pondering the sale in order to raise funds for other initiatives. Other significant Rogers investments are also under consideration for sale, so it seems the broader strategic considerations are driving the company more than any particular consideration tied to the ballclub.

That said, there’s little doubt that Rogers is also aware of the potential to lock in a massive gain on its initial purchase of the Jays. Back in 2000, an eighty percent stake cost just $112MM. Given that a struggling Marlins franchise just went for $1.2B, it stands to reason that Canada’s only MLB team — a marketing juggernaut with excellent attendance figures even in losing seasons and robust profitability in winning campaigns — would fetch quite a bit more.

Clearly, there’s little reason to think that any sale effort is imminent, let alone a deal itself. But it’s plenty significant that ownership has floated the idea, since that’ll surely function as an initial gauge on market interest and value.

In the meantime, it’s naturally fair to wonder how the higher-level business maneuverings might trickle down to the baseball operations. Perhaps the likeliest scenario, though, is to anticipate a continuation of the recent past. Even in the Marlins’ situation, the club waited to make major changes in the lead-up to the sale. Here, there’s good cause to think the Jays will continue their trajectory of attempting to contend while also being notably mindful of maintaining future financial flexibility and building up their farm.

Jeff Bridich On Rockies’ Offseason Plans

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich chatted with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post about the status of his club’s offseason efforts. You’ll certainly want to read the article in its entirety, but we’ll discuss a few pertinent aspects here:

  • Payroll is always a key consideration, of course, and Bridich says the team expects to operate at similar levels as it did in 2017, when it opened with just shy of $130MM on the books. As Saunders notes, the end-of-season number crept higher, though presumably the front office will attempt to keep some powder dry for possible mid-season acquisitions. That still seems to leave quite a bit of room to work with, as the team presently is only committed to about $90MM of salary once anticipated arbitration payouts are factored in. The interview did not touch upon considerations of extensions for existing players, but that could also impact the team’s willingness to take on long-term commitments in free agency. With core players like Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, and Nolan Arenado nearing the open market, it’ll be interesting to see whether there’s an effort to lock them up for the long haul.
  • Bullpen and backstop remain the areas of focus, says Bridich. That’s no surprise given the indications already given to date; indeed, in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook piece on the Rox, we highlighted these two spots and ticked through some of the possibilities. Bridich acknowledges that the team remains engaged with Greg Holland — who served as the closer in 2017 — and confirms that the team has “investigated” top free agent closer Wade Davis. It’s notable that the typically tight-lipped Bridich has made clear that the team is playing at the top of the relief market. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether the club can lure either of those arms to Denver, but it’s also worth noting that Bridich says trade options are on the table.
  • There’s likely a need for greater relief depth, too, and both free agency and trade could offer opportunities. There’s no “magic number” of bullpen pieces that the team seeks to add, says Bridich, but he says “there is a possibility of multiple additions to the pen.”
  • Behind the dish, it isn’t just a matter of chasing a return for Jonathan Lucroy — though Bridich says that’s still an option, as has previously been reported. He tells Saunders that he’s looking at “some potential catchers that are with teams that we have had some interest in over the years,” so it seems trade possibilities are in play. Per the report, Bridich acknowledged at least an awareness of the potential for Yasmani Grandal to be available, though of course it’s open to question whether the division-rival Dodgers would be amenable to sending him to a direct competitors.
  • Bridich discussed the possibility of finding a new bat, suggesting that’s on the list but of lesser urgency. It still seems likely that the club will end up making some kind of addition at first base, but it is far from certain that it’ll be an everyday option since there are certainly some options on hand both there and in the corner outfield. Starting pitching is another consideration, though it too is evidently not seen as a key for the winter. The club has been linked to Jake Arrieta, though it’s possible that was mostly just due diligence.
  • Saunders writes that the health of David Dahl is an important consideration to the corner mix. Dahl, who is still just 23 years of age, showed tons of promise in his debut in 2016, when he turned in 237 plate appearances of .315/.389/.500 hitting. But he missed all of last season and remains a bit of a wild card at this point. He is only just readying to begin swinging, though that’ll happen soon and could begin to give the team an idea of just how much it can count on him in 2018. Bridich did say the team “really [doesn’t] know” whether Dahl’s back problems will linger for the long term, though he adds that “things are looking good now.”

Angels Agree To Terms With Kevin Maitan, Livan Soto

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9:07pm: The Halos have also landed another former Braves shortstop, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Youngster Livan Soto is also heading to the Los Angeles organization after striking a $850K deal. That’s nearly as much as his original $1MM bonus.

Soto isn’t even halfway into his his 18th year, so he’s particularly youthful. He struggled to a .225/.332/.254 slash in 208 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League, but did draw 27 walks against 26 plate appearances. Despite the tepid output, BA’s J.J. Cooper wrote recently (subscription link) that scouts were generally pleased with what he has shown initially.

12:00pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports that Maitan will receive a $2.2MM signing bonus (Twitter link). That’s more than the Halos have in available 2017-18 international funds, so it indeed seems that they’ll be paying Maitan with their 2018-19 bonus pool.

11:45am: The Angels have agreed to a deal with infield prospect Kevin Maitan, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The former Braves prospect was declared a free agent by commissioner Rob Manfred following his office’s investigations into Atlanta’s circumvention of rules on the international free agent market and in the domestic amateur draft.

The addition of Maitan will be a jolt to an Angels farm system that has long rated as one of the game’s worst but has steadily improved in recent seasons. The 17-year-old Maitan didn’t perform well in his first professional season, hitting just .241/.290/.340 in 176 plate appearances between the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League.

The switch-hitting Maitan was still considered by some to be one of the game’s top overall prospects and should slot in at or near the top of his new organization’s prospect rankings. It would be misleading, though, to suggest that Maitan’s struggles didn’t hamper his value to some extent; Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, for instance, tweets that he’s spoken to several scouts who wouldn’t rank Maitan among the game’s 100 best prospects at this juncture.

The Angels picked up $1.21MM of international spending money in a recent trade with the Braves in which they agreed to take on the entirety of Jim Johnson’s remaining salary from Atlanta. That gave the Halos a total of $1.315MM with which to work on the international front. GM Billy Eppler said at the time that that money was earmarked for Shohei Ohtani, but it’s critical to note that for the former Braves prospects deemed to be free agents, teams are allowed to dip into next year’s bonus pool as well.

In other words, the Halos could very well have committed a significant portion of their 2018-19 international pool to Maitan while still reserving the $1.315MM sum (and any other funds they can acquire) for their pursuit of Ohtani.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Moustakas

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The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.

Strengths/Pros

After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances.  He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers.  Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.

Mike MoustakasMoustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985.  Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive.  Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.

Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters.  Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.

Weaknesses/Cons

Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013.  To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates.  While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.

With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value.  That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.

As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017.  This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries.  It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.

Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman.  (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)

Personal

Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft.  A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.

After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader.  Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.

Market

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.

Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond.  Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services.  You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.

The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base.  A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge.  The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.

A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.  Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.

Expected Contract

MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM.  That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game.  Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found.  Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Phillies To Sign Abrahan Gutierrez

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The Phillies have agreed to a deal with former Braves prospect Abrahan Gutierrez, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. The young catcher will receive a $550K bonus.

Gutierrez was among the recent international signees who were stripped from the Braves as punishment for rules violations. He’s the third of the bunch to sign today, with Kevin Maitan joining the Angels and Yefri del Rosario signing on with the Royals.

With the move, the Phillies have added a player that was considered one of the better catching prospects from the 2016-17 July 2 class. The 18-year-old Venezuelan received a $3.53MM bonus from Atlanta; he’ll keep those funds while also earning his new payout to head to Philadelphia.

Gutierrez has not yet had much time at all to show his skills at the professional level, but he did appear in 35 Gulf Coast League games in 2017. Over 141 plate appearances, Gutierrez slashed .264/.319/.357. That’s not an impressive output, of course, but for a player of his age and experience the focus at this stage remains on skills and development.

Phillies Hire Rob Thomson As Bench Coach

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In an expected move, the Phillies announced today that they have hired Rob Thomson to serve as the club’s new bench coach. He’ll be a key lieutenant to first-time manager Gabe Kapler.

Philadelphia has also announced the remainder of its staff, except for a first base coach — a position that has yet to be filled. Rick Kranitz will serve as pitching coach, with Chris Young as his assistant, while Jim Gott will run the bullpen. Hitting coach John Mallee will be assisted by Pedro Guerrero. And Dusty Wathan will serve as the third base coach.

The 54-year-old Thomson had been in the running for the Yankees’ open managerial post after serving as bench coach (and in other positions) under Joe Girardi. But after losing out on that gig to Aaron Boone, Thomson will now move down I-95 to lend some experience to a youthful new skipper as the Phils seek to take a young roster back into contention.

Royals To Sign Wily Peralta

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The Royals became the latest team to strike on the pitching market, adding righty Wily Peralta on a one-year deal, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star first reported (Twitter links). Peralta will receive a $1.525MM guarantee, $1.5MM of which will go to his 2018 salary. The remaining $25K is allocated to a buyout for a $3MM option for 2019. It’s also possible for Peralta to tack on another $1.25MM per season in performance incentives.

Peralta was outrighted in early August by the Brewers and then elected free agency at season’s end. That move came on the heels of a miserable 57 1/3-inning run in 2017, over which Peralta surrendered ten home runs and fifty earned runs. His departure brought a close to his six-year MLB run in Milwaukee, over which time he compiled a 4.48 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a 51.2% groundball rate.

The 28-year-old remains a somewhat intriguing bounceback option, though, for a variety of reasons. It has been some time since he was an effective starter, but he did spin 198 2/3 frames of 3.53 ERA ball back in 2014. And Peralta still brings the heat: in 2017, he averaged 96.5 mph with his four-seamer, matching a personal high. An optimist would surely point to Peralta’s meager 59.8% strand rate and lofty .362 BABIP in his most recent season.

Peralta figures to represent a swingman option for K.C., which GM Dayton Moore acknowledged in commenting on the signing to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Moore indicates that he likes the idea of seeing how his power arsenal fares in the bullpen, while also noting that the club “will look at him as possible rotation depth as well.”

While the team’s plans aren’t yet fully clear, indications are that the Royals are heading for a rebuilding period. If that’s the case, it’s not hard to imagine Peralta functioning as a low-cost rotation piece — particularly if the club explores trades for high-priced starters Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Hammel. The latter two, certainly, could only be moved if Kansas City is willing to hang onto some of their remaining obligations.

If, on the other hand, the Royals find themselves in position to bring back free agents Eric Hosmer and/or Mike Moustakas, and decide to hang on to closer Kelvin Herrera, perhaps Peralta could earn his way into the late-inning mix as a setup arm. This move really does not commit the organization in a particular direction, so there’s still quite a bit left to learn about how the Royals’ 2018 roster will shake out.

Tigers Sign Leonys Martin To Major League Deal, Sign Derek Norris To Minors Pact

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The Tigers announced that they’ve signed outfielder Leonys Martin to a one-year, Major League contract for the 2018 season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter) that he’ll earn a guaranteed $1.75MM with the opportunity to pick up another $1.1MM via incentives.

Meanwhile, catcher Derek Norris, right-hander Enrique Burgos and outfielder Jim Adduci have signed minor league deals that contain invites to Spring Training, per the team. The Tigers also confirmed their previously reported minor league deal with first baseman Edwin Espinal.

Martin, 30 next March, should have ample opportunity to pick up at-bats with the Tigers, who enter the offseason with a thin outfield mix. Mikie Mahtook, JaCoby Jones and Nicholas Castellanos currently sit atop the depth chart in Detroit, though Jones has yet to establish himself in the Majors while Castellanos is a trade candidate. Martin could supplant Jones, and at the very least the two will compete for regular at-bats during Spring Training this year.

In Martin, the Tigers are adding a left-handed bat and a fleet-footed defender that can handle all three outfield spots. The former Rangers/Mariners outfielder hasn’t hit much in recent years, but Martin has consistently drawn top-notch reviews for his defensive work — most of which has come in center field. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +46 in nearly 4500 big league innings, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him at 30 runs better than average. Detroit outfielders, collectively, drew marks of -10 and -7 from DRS and UZR last season, so adding Martin to the mix should prove to be a significant boon, even if it comes at the expense of some offense.

Martin’s struggles with the bat have indeed been pronounced over the past three seasons, during which time he’s twice posted an OPS south of .600. Overall, in his past 1024 MLB plate appearances, Martin has batted .228/.283/.345. At his best, Martin does show some pop, and he’s always a threat on the basepaths as well. Martin’s batted-ball profile has been increasingly fly-ball oriented in recent years, and while many in the league have had great success in that regard, it hasn’t worked out for him. Perhaps a return to a more ground-ball-based approach and some work to curtail his recent uptick in punchouts can at least return his bat to serviceable levels.

As a bonus for the Tigers, Martin comes with just four years, 161 days of Major League service time, meaning if he does turn things around at all, he’ll be controllable through the 2019 season via arbitration. That could help both in making him a multi-year asset for a rebuilding Detroit club or by making him more appealing to potential trade suitors in the event of a bounceback.

Norris, 29 in February, struggled to a .201/.258/.380 line in 198 plate appearances with the Rays last season. He hasn’t performed well at the plate since a solid run with the A’s and Padres in 2013-15, though he at one point in his career showed a penchant for drawing walks and the power to post double-digit homer totals. He’ll compete for a backup catching job, though with James McCann and John Hicks in the fold, it seems likelier that he’ll head to Triple-A to open the year.

Norris was released by the Rays this past June, and his season formally came to a conclusion on Sept. 1 when commissioner Rob Manfred placed him on the restricted list for the final month of the year “based on the results of” an investigation into domestic violence allegations made by his former fiancee. Notably, it does not seem as though there were ever any criminal charges brought forth against Norris. He’s not facing any punishment from the league in 2018.

The 27-year-old Burgos has shown the ability to miss bats at the big league level, averaging 10.8 K/9 in 68 1/3 innings across multiple stints with the D-backs, dating back to 2015. He’s averaged nearly 96 mph on his fastball but has also issued five walks per nine innings as a Major Leaguer. He’ll vie for a spot in an unsettled Tigers bullpen and, if he can eventually put things together, is controllable all the way through the 2022 season.

Adduci, 32, returned from a strong stint in the Korea Baseball Organization this year and made his way to the Tigers’ big league roster, where he batted .241/.323/.398 in 93 PAs. Adduci has just 241 big league PAs, which have resulted in a .209/.283/.302 slash.

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