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Phillies Sign Carlos Santana

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DECEMBER 20: The Phillies have announced the deal. Sanchez has the full breakdown (via Twitter): Santana receives a $10MM signing bonus, with annual salaries of $15MM, $17MM, and $17.5MM. The math would suggest that there’s a $500K buyout on the option year.

DECEMBER 15, 1:28pm: Santana’s contract is still pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury also tweets that Hoskins will indeed play a significant amount of left field, freeing up the possibility of the trade of an outfielder. Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams had been slotted in as the Phillies’ corner outfielders, with Odubel Herrera lined up as the center fielder.

12:52pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports that Santana’s deal also comes with a $17.5MM club option for a fourth season (Twitter link).

12:32pm: In a surprising move, the Phillies have agreed to a deal with first baseman Carlos Santana, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). It’s a hefty three-year, $60MM contract, according to Heyman. Santana is represented by Octagon.

Carlos Santana | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia has been linked to Santana on multiple occasions, though it’s long seemed like a curious fit given the emergence of Rhys Hoskins as the presumptive starter at first base. However, the Phils deployed Hoskins in left field last season, and he turned in passable results in a small sample of 237 innings there (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, scratch defense per Ultimate Zone Rating).

The Phillies could opt to continue utilizing Hoskins in the outfield in order to get Santana’s bat into the lineup. Santana does have 225 innings of experience at third base, though he received poor defensive ratings there, and his superlative glovework at first base is a significant component in his value. Santana, of course, broke into the Majors as a catcher but hasn’t suited up behind the dish since the 2014 season and hasn’t played more than 100 innings there since 2013, owing in part due to concussion issues.

[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]

Santana jumps out as the most significant position player to come off the board and does so in impressive fashion, matching the dollars that his now-former teammate, Edwin Encarnacion, received with the Indians just one offseason ago. Santana landed a considerably stronger average annual value than many pundits predicted — MLBTR pegged him at three years and $45MM in total on our Top 50 free agent list — though the Phillies likely had to pay a premium to convince a top-tier free agent to sign with a club that has spent the past several seasons rebuilding.

The 31-year-old Santana (32 in April) should play no small part in helping the Phils further their efforts to return to contention in the National League East, though. He’s coming off a strong .259/.363/.455 batting line in 667 plate appearances last season and turned in a career year in 2016 when he hit .259/.366/.498 with 34 homers.

Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong).

Because Santana rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Indians, he comes with draft compensation in the form of the Phillies’ second-highest draft pick — in this case, their second-round pick — and a $500K hit to their 2018-19 international bonus pool. The Phils will lose not only that second-round pick, but also the slot money that would’ve come along with it, thus noticeably shrinking next year’s draft pool.

The Indians, meanwhile, will secure a compensatory pick between the end of the first round and the start of Competitive Balance Round A due to the fact that Santana’s contract exceeded $50MM in total guarantees.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A’s Sign Cuban Outfielder Dairon Blanco

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The A’s announced yesterday that they’ve inked free-agent outfielder Dairon Blanco. The 24-year-old left his native Cuba back in the spring of 2016 and was declared a free agent by MLB last November. Terms of the deal weren’t reported, but the A’s are in the metaphorical “penalty box” after blowing past last year’s international pool, so the deal can’t guarantee Blanco more than $300K.

Blanco is a lifetime .303/.369/.409 hitter in parts of four pro seasons in Cuba (916 plate appearances). At the time of his departure from Cuba and MLB’s declaration of free agency for the right-handed hitter, Blanco was said by Baseball America’s Ben Badler and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen to possess 80-grade speed on the 20-80 scale but a lesser set of other tools. Longenhagen put a 40 on his arm last November, and Badler questioned his natural hitting abilities.

By the time Spring Training gets underway, it will have been more than two years since Blanco has suited up for a pro game. He’ll assuredly require some minor league time in 2018 and possibly beyond the coming season before he emerges as a viable option for the A’s. But, Oakland has no clear option in center field and could very well need a left fielder during or after the 2018 campaign, depending on the status of Matt Joyce, who’s entering the second season of a two-year deal.

Certainly, the team hopes that Dustin Fowler will be able to hold down a regular spot in their outfield (ideally, in center) for years to come, though his ability to contribute is tied directly to his ability to recover from a significant knee injury suffered in his MLB debut with the Yankees last year. Expecting Blanco to emerge as a candidate to log significant big league time this coming season seems optimistic, though his apparently blistering speed and a Gold Glove award in Cuba could make him an intriguing fourth outfield option at the very least, if he can prove competent with the bat.

Oakland’s assistant GM Dan Feinstein spoke highly of Blanco to Melissa Lockard of OaklandClubhouse.com, telling her that the A’s have been scouting Blanco for more than a year during his workouts in the Dominican Republic. “[Blanco] has a track record of success in the Cuba, and possesses tools that are hard to come by,” said Feinstein. “He’s very athletic, and a true 80 runner with the ability to play all three outfield spots. Profiles as leadoff hitter who will occasionally put one in the seats.”

Free Agent Rumors: Moustakas, Cahill, Mets, Dodgers, Hirano, Indians, Twins

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Like most free agents, Mike Moustakas has been met with an unexpectedly slow market this offseason, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Zack Cozart’s willingness to move from shortstop to third base and the potential presence of names like Manny Machado, Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson on the trade market have all complicated matters for Moustakas, who entered the winter as the consensus top third baseman available in free agency. Olney writes that some MLB evaluators have questioned how well Moustakas’ body will hold up into his 30s, which represents another potential stalling point in his market. Olney speculates about the possibility of Moustakas ultimately settling for a one-year deal and reentering free agency next winter, noting that the Orioles, Yankees and Cardinals would all represent very logical landing spots on a short-term pact. Of course, it remains to be seen whether he’d be amenable to such an arrangement; the majority of top position players remain unsigned, after all, and agent Scott Boras has a history of lengthy trips through free agency for some of his clients.

Some more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Olney also reports that the Giants are among the clubs considering righty Trevor Cahill for a rotation spot (Twitter link). Cahill, 30 in March, was terrific early in the year before a shoulder injury torpedoed his season. Through his first 41 1/3 innings with the Padres, Cahill logged a 3.27 ERA with 11.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 60.2 percent ground-ball rate. Upon returning from that injury, however, he was rocked for a 6.54 ERA In 42 2/3 frames between the Padres and Royals. Cahill’s newfound ability to miss bats completely evaporated after being activated from the DL (7.6 K/9), and he was unable to find the strike zone with any consistency (5.9 BB/9).
  • The Mets have indeed “reached out” to Adrian Gonzalez, tweets Olney. (Olney and others had previously suggested the Mets were likely to explore the possibility.) New York’s level of interest isn’t known, but they have a considerably more intriguing option in-house in the form of Dominic Smith, and the market bears a number of considerably more appealing veterans (all of whom, albeit, are more expensive). The 35-year-old Gonzalez could be had for just the league minimum, as the Braves are on the hook for the remainder of his salary, but he’s coming off a season that was ruined by back injuries and saw him post an unsightly .242/.287/.355 slash line in 252 plate appearances.
  • The Dodgers have some interest in Japanes closer Yoshihisa Hirano, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted recently. The 33-year-old Hirano has starred for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes for quite some time, amassing 143 saves with a 2.62 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 271 1/3 innings from 2013-17. Hirano, who will turn 34 next spring, has enough professional experience that he’s exempt from the posting system and is able to sign a Major League deal without going through the posting system. He’s also been linked to the Cardinals and Tigers this winter.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Indians aren’t operating under the same capacity that they did last offseason when they surprised everyone by signing Edwin Encarnacion (Twitter links). Cleveland is looking at lower-profile first base options to replace Carlos Santana, with Crasnick listing the likes of Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Logan Morrison and Yonder Alonso as possibilities rather than Eric Hosmer. (Speculatively, I’d imagine that even Morrison and Alonso could be beyond Cleveland’s comfort zone.) Dealing Jason Kipnis and the remaining $30.5MM on his contract (2018-19) would open up some additional funds for the team to reallocate to a first baseman or additional bullpen help, Crasnick notes.
  • Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN touched on a number of Twins-related issues in his most recent podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at the 3:30 mark). Minnesota was in on Drew Smyly until the end, per Wolfson, before Smyly chose to sign with the Cubs. Minnesota gave an identical two-year, $10MM guarantee to Michael Pineda instead, and they have some interest in working out a two-year agreement with injured reliever Trevor Rosenthal as well. Minnesota has shown no inclination to spent upwards of $9MM on multi-year deals for relievers and doesn’t love the idea of going to six years on Yu Darvish, though the team does maintain strong interest in the righty. Wolfson notes that the trade market could be an avenue for improving the ’pen and/or rotation.

Tim Lincecum Planning Showcase For MLB Teams

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After sitting out the 2017 season, right-hander Tim Lincecum is working out with the trainers at Driveline Baseball and will showcase for interested teams “in the near future,” per an announcement from Driveline (on Twitter). Intrigue around Lincecum picked up earlier today when fellow Driveline client Adam Ottavino posted a picture of Lincecum on Instagram.

Lincecum looks to be in excellent physical condition, though it’s certainly best to temper expectations regarding his ability to contribute on the field. Lincecum didn’t pitch in the Majors, minors or in any other professional capacity in 2017, and his 2016 run with the Angels following 2015 hip surgery was an unmitigated disaster.

In Lincecum’s last run through MLB, he logged a 9.16 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a staggering 2.58 HR/9 through 38 1/3 innings with the Halos. His average fastball in that time was just 87.7 mph — nearly seven full miles per hour off he 94.2 mph that he averaged as a 23-year-old rookie one decade ago.

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that Lincecum is “throwing hard again,” though he didn’t put a specific number on the two-time NL Cy Young winner’s velocity at present. Restored velocity, of course, could be a huge boon for Lincecum, who’ll turn 34 next June. Lincecum established himself as one of the game’s most dominant pitchers quickly after debuting and held that status from 2008-11 before beginning to decline in 2012. Perhaps not surprisingly, the first significant drop-off in performance for Lincecum came when his average fastball plummeted from 92.3 mph in 2011 to 90.4 mph in 2012.

Lincecum figures to be of some degree of interest to most clubs, as there’d be little reason not to at least have a scout or two watch a workout to see if there’s any indications of a potential return to form. It’d be unrealistic to hope for his 2008-09 dominance (2.55 ERA, 10.5 K/9, back-to-back Cy Young Awards), but a rejuvenated Lincecum could conceivably contribute to a big league rotation all the same.

Presumably, he’ll field predominantly minor league offers, though it’s possible that he drums up enough interest to secure a 40-man roster spot with a low base salary and a healthy pile of incentives based on appearances and/or innings pitched. By the time Opening Day rolls around, it will have been six full seasons since “The Freak” was an above-average contributor in a Major League rotation, though recent resurgences from the likes of Scott Kazmir and Rich Hill (among others) serve as reminders that it’s virtually never too late to rule out a comeback — especially for a player that won’t turn 34 until next summer.

Athletics Acquire Jonah Heim From Rays

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The A’s have acquired minor league catcher Jonah Heim from the Rays as the player to be named later in last week’s Joey Wendle trade, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).

Heim, 22, spent the entire 2016 season in Class-A Advanced but struggled greatly, prompting the Rays to drop him back to Class-A to open the 2017 campaign. Heim spent most of the year in that Class-A Midwest League before moving back up to High-A for the final 16 games, hitting a combined .260/.317/.402 with nine homers across the two levels. He caught 45 percent of would-be base thieves in 2017 and is at an excellent mark of 38 percent throughout his minor league career to date. Heim did not rank among Tampa Bay’s top prospects, but he’ll give the A’s some depth at the position and could seemingly find himself in Double-A at some point in the 2018 campaign.

Athletics Acquire Jake Bray From Orioles

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The Athletics have acquired righty Jake Bray from the Orioles, per a club announcement. He represents the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Jaycob Brugman to Baltimore earlier in the offseason.

Bray, 25, has not yet played above the Class A level. In 2017, he pitched to a 3.88 ERA in 51 Sally League frames. That said, he has shown some interesting peripherals at time, never more so than in his just-completed season, when he racked up 82 strikeouts against just 14 walks.

Free Agent Profile: Logan Morrison

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After six seasons of largely pedestrian play at the major league level, Logan Morrison enjoyed a huge power breakout in 2017. As he enters the free agent market, he’ll hope teams are willing to believe his newfound success at the plate is sustainable.

Pros/Strengths

Prior to this past season, few would have believed a prediction that “LoMo” would hit as many home runs as a healthy Edwin Encarnacion. Fast forward to October, and those two sat tied for fifth among the American League’s home run leaders (along with Justin Smoak and Mike Moustakas). The Rays first baseman also finished fifth in ISO in the AL.

Morrison’s power breakout came during a season in which he made adjustments to his swing, helping him hit more balls in the air. “Valuing… launch angle and all that stuff — has helped me out a lot,” he said to Fangraphs’ David Laurila back in August. Whatever adjustments Morrison made, they worked like a charm. His fly ball rate skyrocketed from 34.7% to 46.2%; that amounts to a whopping 33% increase in fly balls over last season.

Combined with a slight increase in hard contact, Morrison’s ground ball/fly ball profile quickly went from being one of his biggest weaknesses to his clear biggest strength as a hitter. His HR/FB ratio climbed to 22.5%, up from just 15.2% the year prior. The result was a whopping 38 homers; 15 more than his previous career high back in 2011.

Morrison became more selective this past season, too. His previous career-high walk rate was 10.3%, but the first baseman blew past that total to reach 13.5% this season. And although he has a bit of a platoon split in the power department, LoMo actually walks about as often against lefties as he does against righties. All told, his OBP at season’s end was a respectable .353.

Cons/Weaknesses

Morrison’s most significant weakness is his contact ability. The lefty-hitter whiffs in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances (24.8%), giving him the 20th-highest strikeout rate among 144 qualified hitters. While he doesn’t often swing at bad pitches, he swings and misses a lot; Morrison’s 73.7% contact rate ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in MLB. The above figures are both downgrades from recent seasons, and clearly demonstrate the double-edged sword of his newfound “swing hard in case you hit it” approach.

LoMo’s suitors can’t count on him for much in the way of defense, either. Fangraphs has rated him as being well below average in every season of his major league career. It’s worth noting, however, that UZR/150 and DRS both pegged him as an ever-so-slightly above average first baseman in 2017 after years of being down on his work, so perhaps there’s not much to worry about.

But above any of that, it would be irresponsible not to consider the risk that Morrison might fail to replicate his 2017 success. Based on his change in approach at the plate it’s certainly possible he’ll sustain this level of production, some might even say probable. Still, it can’t be overlooked that he’s played below replacement level in three of his eight major league seasons, despite the pedigree he carried as a prospect. In fact, his previous career high in fWAR was only 1.1, which isn’t even a league-average performance. There’s always a chance that what looks like a breakout season could end up simply being an outlier, and if Morrison is paid for his 2017 power output, regression to his previous self would make his contract look terrible in retrospect.

Background

Justis Logan Morrison was born in Kansas City, Missouri. His father served in the coast guard, so Morrison traveled a lot during his younger years. He attended Northshore High School in Slidell, Louisiana, and was selected by the then-Florida Marlins after his senior year in 2005. Though he decided to attend community college, he ultimately ended up signing with the Marlins prior to the 2006 draft.

Over the next four years, Morrison climbed steadily throughout the minor leagues. He ranked 20th on Baseball America’s top prospects list prior to the 2010 season; a year in which he ultimately made his major league debut and hit .283/.390/.477. On December 11th, 2013 he was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Carter Capps. Morrison remained in Seattle until November 5th, 2015 when the Rays acquired him in a three-for-three swap.

Market

First basemen haven’t exactly been flying off the shelves this winter, but Morrison got a bit of bad news recently when the Red Sox re-signed Mitch Moreland to a two-year, $13MM deal. Boston reportedly met with Morrison’s representatives earlier this offseason; the organization had one of the strongest needs at first base among MLB teams (and one of baseball’s largest budgets as a means to fill it).

On the other hand, the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM agreement with Carlos Santana may actually be good news for Morrison’s market. Philadelphia was never seen as a strong candidate to sign the former Rays slugger, or really a first baseman in general; Rhys Hoskins seemed likely to open the season at first for the club, who will now be pushed to the outfield. Before he signed the offseason’s largest contract thus far, Santana was drawing strong interest from at least ten different teams within the past month, and those teams may now turn their attention to Morrison. He’s the best first baseman left on the shelves who doesn’t come with a nine-figure price tag.

The first base market is still crowded. Eric Hosmer, MLBTR’s third-ranked free agent, remains on the board as the most attractive option at the position. Yonder Alonso comes with a somewhat similar offensive profile, and could compete for attention from Morrison’s potential suitors. Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds and Adam Lind are still hanging around in the bargain bin. Jose Abreu of the White Sox could still be traded, too.

Morrison has been connected to the Angels, who have already made a flurry of moves this offseason to improve their shot at a 2018 AL West pennant. It makes sense to think they could continue to explore signing him. The Rockies and Indians are both firmly in the market for a first baseman, while the Mariners, Astros and a reunion with the Rays all make some level of sense.

Expected Contract

The situation for Morrison doesn’t look much better or worse than it did at the outset of this offseason. The elimination of the Red Sox as a potential suitor hurts, but the average annual value of the contract given to Santana could work in LoMo’s favor during contract negotiations. All told, I think MLBTR’s original prediction of $36MM over a three-year term holds up well to this point.

Rangers Sign Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Erik Goeddel

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The Rangers have announced the signings of righties Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Erik Goeddel. Both players will receive minors contracts that include invitations to MLB Spring Training.

Texas has worked hard to build out its pitching depth this winter, and that’s all the more important now given that Martin Perez is slated to miss some time early on. While the Rangers will surely still hope to find more impactful additions, a little spring competition never hurts.

Bibens-Dirkx reached the majors for the first time in 2017 with the Rangers. Working as a swingman, he provided 69 1/3 innings of 4.67 ERA ball over 18 relief appearances and six starts. He also managed only 4.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and allowed 1.8 home runs per regulation outing. The 32-year-old was outrighted off of the 40-man roster at the end of the season.

As for Goeddel, who turns 29 tomorrow, he’ll step into the bullpen competition after appearing in each of the past four seasons with the Mets. The UCLA product has shown some swing and miss, recording 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 while carrying a 3.96 ERA through 104 2/3 career MLB frames. Goeddel managed a hefty 15.2% swinging-strike rate in 2017, though he also coughed up eight long balls in just 29 frames on the year.

Martin Perez Undergoes Surgery For Break To Non-Throwing Elbow

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Rangers left-hander Martin Perez is set to miss approximately four months after undergoing surgery for a fracture to the radial head in his right arm, the club announced. He is said to have incurred the injury at his ranch in his home country of Venezuela.

Perez, 26, is expected to hold down a starting spot for the Rangers in 2018. Odds are, though, that he’ll miss a bit of time to open the season, perhaps increasing the organization’s need for rotation depth. Four months from today puts the potential return in mid-April, but perhaps it’s wise to build in a bit of extra padding to expectations.

Though Perez limped to a 4.82 ERA in 2017, he enjoyed a second consecutive healthy campaign and has thrown 383 2/3 innings since the start of 2016. Texas decided to pick up a $6MM option to retain him in hopes that he’d again fill up some frames and might also improve his results.

While there’s not much to love about Perez’s peripherals of late, he has long generated good rates of grounders and has been effective in the past when he suppresses home runs sufficiently. He also still delivers a 93 to 94 mph fastball, though his swinging-strike rates are stuck below eight percent.

[RELATED: Updated Rangers Depth Chart]

In any event, the Rangers now have more reason than ever to seek an additional rotation-capable arm. The team has already added Mike Minor, Matt Moore, and Doug Fister to a unit fronted by Cole Hamels, but the organization is short of established options beyond that.

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