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Poll: What’s Next For The Pirates?

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As those who paid attention to the MLB offseason a year ago remember, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was among the most popular figures in the rumor mill. At the time, the Pittsburgh icon was coming off a career-worst season both offensively and defensively, which surely hindered the team in its efforts to garner suitable offers for him. Ultimately, the Pirates retained McCutchen and enjoyed a bounce-back year from him at the plate (.279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 PAs). While McCutchen struggled again in the grass, where he posted minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, the onetime National League MVP nonetheless ranked a solid 17th among outfielders in fWAR (3.7).

Andrew McCutchen

This winter, on the heels of a rebound year, rumors regarding McCutchen haven’t been nearly as abundant. The Giants are the only known team with interest in the 31-year-old, yet they don’t seem to view him as a priority. Still, although nothing looks imminent on the McCutchen front, it’s possible the five-time All-Star has played his last game with the Pirates – who drafted him 11th overall in 2005.

With McCutchen entering a contract year in 2018, in which he’ll make $14.75MM, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged this month that the player’s time in Pittsburgh may be winding down. Trading McCutchen prior to the season wouldn’t seem to make much sense if the Pirates plan to compete next season and avoid a third straight non-playoff campaign, but a return to prominence may be a long shot.

With McCutchen in the fold, the Pirates are projected to start 2018 with a payroll of just under $104MM. That would represent a season-opening high for owner Bob Nutting, whose rosters haven’t begun any campaign above the $100MM mark since he took the helm of the franchise in 2007. The Pirates’ low-spending ways may make an offseason McCutchen trade all the more likely, though he’s not the only notable veteran they could jettison to help cut costs. Infielder Josh Harrison, who will make $10MM in his third-last year of team control next season, has drawn widespread trade interest and might find himself in the uniform of the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays or another club by the springtime.

Unlike McCutchen and Harrison – two useful but not great assets –  right-hander Gerrit Cole would bring back a significant return in a trade. Not only is the flamethrowing 27-year-old a bona fide No. 2/3 starter, but he’s due a relatively modest $7.5MM in 2018. Considering Cole’s a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him eschewing free agency in favor of a long-term extension with the Pirates seems low. That could increase their urgency to trade Cole, who’s going into his penultimate year of team control.

No doubt cognizant of the Boras factor, Huntington was reportedly “motivated” to part with Cole earlier this month. It appeared then that Cole would join the Yankees, but talks between them and the Pirates subsequently lost momentum. Even if Pittsburgh and New York don’t eventually find common ground, though, there are plenty of other teams that would benefit from a Cole addition – and the Bucs have engaged with some of those clubs.

At times, the 2017 portion of the offseason was a slow-moving bore, but the payoff is that there will be copious trades and signings in the New Year. With enticing trade chips in McCutchen, Harrison and Cole, the Pirates may often find themselves at the center of the action leading up to April. If you were calling the shots for the club, how would you approach the next couple months?

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Tampa Bay Rays

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Coming off an 80-win campaign, its fourth straight sub-.500 season, Tampa Bay entered the winter in payroll-trimming mode. The Rays opened last season with a paltry payroll of just over $70MM, and if they’re not even willing to spend that amount in 2018, it’ll make competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox all the more difficult. It’s possible, then, that the Rays will opt for a major rebuild in the coming months. So far this offseason, they’ve already subtracted third baseman and longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria, who went to the Giants in a late-December, five-player trade. Odds are that Longoria won’t be the last notable veteran the Rays jettison over the next few months – especially considering they still have multiple trade candidates who would garner strong returns, as you’ll see below.

One-Year Rentals

Denard Span, OF ($13MM, including a $4MM buyout in 2019): The Rays acquired Span in the Longoria trade to help balance out money, so they could flip the 33-year-old before he ever plays a game for them. However, Span didn’t do his trade value any favors in 2017, combining roughly league-average offense (.272/.329/.427 in 542 plate appearances) with the ugliest defensive showing of his career (minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating). Span may have been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors last season, likely his last as a center fielder. So, Span’s now a defensively limited corner outfielder without a big bat. That’s not a great combination, especially at his price tag and with so many corner options remaining in free agency. In the event the Rays shop Span but don’t find a taker for him, the Tampa Bay native would be thrilled to suit up for his hometown team.

Wilson Ramos, C ($10.5MM): Ramos wasn’t effective in 2017, nor are there many contending teams looking for short-term upgrades at catcher (for those that are, free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila could be more appealing). Those factors, not to mention Ramos’ salary, figure to make him a tough sell. Ramos deserves credit for returning last season from the torn ACL he suffered in September 2016, but his offensive production took a dive (he logged a 124 wRC+ in 2016 and a 92 wRC+ in 2017). The former National also endured an uncharacteristically poor defensive season and threw out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers (down from 37 percent the prior year).

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($5MM projected arbitration salary): The Marlins sent Hechavarria to the Rays in a payroll-cutting move last June, which should tell you he doesn’t have much trade value. Hechavarria has been an excellent defender of late (23 DRS, 27.9 UZR since 2015), though, and that could make him a target for a team in need of a slick-fielding infielder. Of course, Hechavarria’s inability to contribute offensively has somewhat undermined his terrific glove work. The 29-year-old owns a lifetime .255/.291/.345 batting line (granted, he hit a more respectable .261/.289/406 last season), and he doesn’t offer much power (.090 ISO) or base-stealing prowess (30 of 48 in his career).

Two Years Of Control

Jake Odorizzi

Jake Odorizzi, SP ($6.5MM projected salary): The Rays understandably want a respectable haul for the right-handed Odorizzi, who’s a proven big league starter with youth on his side (28 in March). Unfortunately for them, Odorizzi was a disappointment last year (4.14 ERA/5.43 FIP in 143 1/3 innings), thanks in part to injuries (he went on the disabled list once for a hamstring issue and another time on account of back problems), a career-worst walk mark (3.83 per nine) and a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.5 percent).

Both Odorizzi’s struggles last year and a lifetime groundball rate of 33.7 percent stand out as red flags, though he’s not far removed from a 2014-16 stretch in which he averaged 175 frames per season and pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.91 FIP. Given Odorizzi’s overall track record, the Rays shouldn’t have trouble finding a team for him if they’re motivated to ship him out.

Corey Dickerson, OF/DH ($6.4MM projected salary): Dickerson opened his career in impressive fashion as a Rockie from 2013-15, though the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from hitter-friendly Coors Field during that stretch. In 2016, his first year in Tampa Bay, Dickerson did little to quell concerns that he was a platoon bat and a product of the Mile High air, but he bounced back to a degree last season. The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod on the strength of a .312/.355/.548 first-half line, though his production dropped off sharply after mid-July (.241/.282/.408). Moreover, Statcast indicates Dickerson’s expected weighted-on base average (.310) paled in comparison to his actual wOBA (.350). There remain questions about Dickerson’s offensive game, then; on the positive side, Dickerson was similarly solid against both right- and left-handed pitchers for the first time in his career last season, and the advanced metrics (one DRS, 8.7 UZR) looked favorably on his defense from 2016-17. Still, this probably isn’t a player who’s teeming with trade value.

Brad Miller, IF ($4.4MM projected salary): The Rays may have shopped Miller, 28, before tendering him a contract last month. If they did, teams likely weren’t lining up for a player who trudged through a miserable, injury-affected 2017. After posting terrific power numbers (30 homers, .239 ISO) and hitting .243/.304/.482 as a first baseman/shortstop in 2016, he limped to a .201/.327/.337 line with nine HRs and a .136 ISO as a second baseman last season. While Miller is versatile defensively, he has never held his own anywhere with the glove. All things considered, there’s not much value here at the moment.

Dan Jennings, RP ($2.5MM projected salary): Tampa Bay was in the playoff race approaching last July’s non-waiver trade deadline, which led the club to ship a decent prospect – first baseman Casey Gillaspie – to the White Sox for the left-handed Jennings. The Rays fell apart over the season’s final couple months, making the acquisition somewhat of a waste. The club could now try to flip the inexpensive Jennings, who has held his own for most of his career. Jennings has fared nicely against both left- and right-handed hitters, having limited the former to a .307 wOBA and the latter to a .300 mark. While his lifetime strikeout and walk numbers aren’t palatable (7.31 K/9, 4.09 BB/9), Jennings has induced grounders at a 55.2 percent clip and managed a 2.90 ERA over 279 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 31-year-old may bring back something useful in a trade, then, if the Rays are inclined to move him.

Longer-Term Assets

Kevin Kiermaier, OF (controllable through 2023 for $60MM): There has been no real chatter this winter about the Rays dealing Kiermaier, whom they locked up to an extension prior to last season. Although the solid-hitting defensive maven seems likely to stick in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future, he’d certainly draw plenty of looks on the trade market. Dating back to 2014, his breakout season, Kiermaier ranks eighth among outfielders in fWAR (16.1), owing to his all-around game. Kiermaier, who will turn 28 in April, combined for ridiculous defensive numbers in center over the previous four seasons (103 DRS, 62.8 UZR) and complemented those with an above-average batting line (.262/.319/.431) and base-stealing ability (60 on 79 tries).

Chris Archer

Chris Archer, SP (controllable through 2021 for $34MM): With Kiermaier unlikely to go anywhere, the 29-year-old Archer stands out as the crown jewel of the Rays’ realistic trade possibilities; more than that, the durable, hard-throwing righty’s track record and team-friendly contract combine to make him one of the game’s most valuable assets. As a result, the Rays could simply keep him and continue to benefit from his presence. But if they opt for a full-scale rebuild, aggressively shopping Archer would make sense. While it’s unclear how serious the Rays actually are about trading Archer, he has already garnered significant interest this offseason, unsurprisingly.

Alex Colome, RP ($5.5MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): A Colome trade looked like an inevitably entering the offseason, and multiple teams have aggressively pursued him recently, but no deal has come together yet. One of those suitors, Colorado, is likely out of the Colome market after signing fellow closer Wade Davis this week. Still, there are other teams with late-game needs – namely St. Louis – that could put together a package for the former starter. Colome, who turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, is coming off a league-best 47-save season (his second full-time campaign as a reliever), though he did see his other numbers fall off precipitously compared to 2016. His K/9 (11.28 to 7.83), BB/9 (2.38 to 3.11), swinging-strike percentage (15.1 to 11.6) and ERA (1.91 to 3.24) all went in the wrong direction last year.

Steven Souza, OF ($3.6MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): At least one team has checked in with the Rays about the righty-hitting Souza this offseason, but there’s no indication he’s going anywhere. The Rays would be selling high on the three-year veteran if they did part with him, though; despite hip problems, Souza’s fresh off a season in which he slashed .239/.351/.459 with personal bests in PAs (617), home runs (30), ISO (.220) walk rate (13 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent). It’s worth noting that Souza wasn’t nearly as effective in the two prior seasons, and his xwOBA (.334) fell well short of his actual wOBA (.353) in 2017. To his credit, the soon-to-be 29-year-old complemented his most recent output at the plate with plus defense (seven DRS, 4.3 UZR) in right field for the second straight season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Darvish, Twins, Cole, Cards, JBJ, Archer

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

5 Key Stories: 12/24/17 – 12/30/17

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Here are the biggest stories from the past week at MLBTR …

Sep 19, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Wade Davis (71) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rockies complete trio of high-priced relief additions: After committing $27MM apiece to two top setup men, the Rockies went for broke by signing top free agent closer Wade Davis to a three-year, $52MM deal. Davis can lock in yet more money if he’s healthy and holds onto the closer’s role for the third season of the contract, via a vesting player option. All told, it’s a significant commitment — indeed, the deal includes the highest average annual value ever given to a reliever — that confirms the Rox believe they are primed to contend.

Twins star Sano accused of assault: Earlier this week, a photographer made some troubling accusations of assault against young Twins third baseman Miguel Sano. At this point, it is not clear whether legal or league disciplinary action will occur. The incident is being investigated under MLB’s domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy, which gives the commissioner authority to investigate and punish players regardless of arrest or prosecution.

Reds building out bullpen: After two seasons of mostly miserable output from the Cincinnati pitching staff, the Reds entered the offseason in search of a few arms to help turn the tide. While the club does not seem to be gearing up for any major spending, it can probably hope for significant improvements merely by replacing sub-replacement-level output with solid hurlers. That’s likely an element of the thought process in the team’s signing of righty Jared Hughes to a two-year pact. Giving him a multi-year guarantee likely tamped down the annual cost (he’s promised just $4.5MM) and helped draw the veteran to town. It remains to be seen whether further relief upgrades will be pursued, though if so it’s likely they’ll be similarly low-cost acquisitions.

Twins ink bounceback relief candidate: Much like the Rockies, the Twins were a somewhat surprising postseason team in 2017. Both organizations have solid young cores in place but also still admit of a few holes. But while the Rox spend big on premium relief arms, the Minny brass has adopted a somewhat more conservative strategy. Most recently, the club signed veteran southpaw Zach Duke to join aging closer Fernando Rodney in the late-inning mix. More significant additions could also be pursued, but it seems the Twins intend to be a bit more protective of their future balance sheets while still trying to add veterans to the 2018 roster.

Old favorites seek redemption in San Diego: It has been an interesting offseason thus far for the Padres, mostly owing to a surprise pursuit of top free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer (status: unresolved). Perhaps it’s mostly a curiosity at this point, but the organization has also landed a few former stars. After agreeing to take over the contract of third baseman Chase Headley, the Friars went out and struck minor-league pacts with former right-handers Chris Young and Tyson Ross (see here and here). Both of the hurlers will need to pitch their way onto the roster in camp, and Headley could well end up being traded, but it’s still fun to see such notable alums filtering back. As MLBTR’s Jason Martinez noted on Twitter, the Pads could really make things interesting if they found a way to bring back current free agents such as Andrew Cashner, Jake Peavy, and Mat Latos.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Among Teams To Show Interest In Alex Cobb

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The Brewers are among the MLB organizations to have shown some level of interest in free agent righty Alex Cobb, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Per Morosi, Milwaukee has spoken with Cobb’s agency “recently” about the veteran starter. Of course, it’s also far from clear how serious the interest is.

Last we heard, the asking price was still high for Cobb, who even appears to have some hope of securing five guaranteed seasons. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has noted, the surprisingly lofty payday secured by Tyler Chatwood seemingly bodes well for Cobb’s market.

The ongoing delay in free agent signings has many wondering whether some open-market players will end up taking a haircut as against expectations. To this point, however, we’ve yet to see any top-tier free agents settle for contracts that would support such a conclusion.

In Cobb’s case, it seems there’s still wide interest in his services. While the Brewers won’t be expected to bid up a massive payday, they have plenty of money to work with, making them a legitimate potential suitor on paper. The division-rival Cubs have long been cited as a top potential landing spot, with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles among those having shown prior interest.

Prior surgeries continue to represent a possible drag on Cobb’s market, but he is fresh off of a productive and healthy 2017 campaign in which he ran up a 3.50 ERA over 179 1/3 innings. Plus, of course, Cobb has demonstrated the talent for even greater productivity; in 309 2/3 innings over 2013-14, he compiled a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Kimbrel, Royals, Free Agents

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Jayson Stark’s “Strange But True Facts” column is an annual tradition for baseball fans, and Stark is here with the 2017 edition of unusual statistical and factual oddities from the past season.  Highlights include Matt Chapman’s odd do-over on his first career MLB hit, Travis d’Arnaud’s 22-position game on August 16, and the All-Garcia starting outfield deployed by the White Sox on April 14.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Could Craig Kimbrel earn a $100MM free agent contract next offseason?  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford thinks it could happen, especially after Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal with the Rockies established a new average annual value standard for a closer.  Kimbrel turns 30 in May and is coming off one of his greatest seasons — a 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 69 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees from last winter is the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, though Chapman signed that deal entering his age-29 season, whereas Kimbrel turns 30 in May.  Kimbrel still stands a decent shot at topping Chapman’s mark, though cracking the $100MM threshold seems like a tall order.
  • The Royals went into the offseason hoping to re-sign maybe one of Eric Hosmer (their top choice), Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, though the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd wonders if the team could re-assess its plans given the unexpectedly slow free agent market.  All three players are still available as the calendar turns to January, and in the cases of Hosmer and Moustakas, they seem to be running short on viable landing spots.  Re-signing any of those free agents, however, would cost the Royals compensation draft picks, which are valuable assets for a team that is looking at a rebuild.  Dodd notes that K.C. was able to re-sign Alex Gordon when his free agent market proved to be quieter than expected, though given how Gordon has struggled over the last two years, the Royals probably aren’t thrilled with that comp.
  • One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.  Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts.  Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.

NL Notes: Clemente, Harper, D’Backs

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New Year’s Eve has long been a somber day in baseball history, as it was on this day in 1972 that Pirates superstar Roberto Clemente was killed in a plane crash at age 38.  The outfielder was personally accompanying a shipment of relief supplies headed from his native Puerto Rico to victims of a recent earthquake in Nicaragua, but the flight tragically crashed just off the P.R. coast.  Clemente’s passing inspired the creation of the Presidential Citizens Medal, the United States’ second-highest civilian honor.  Clemente’s legacy is acknowledged every year by MLB via the Roberto Clemente Award, and there has been speculation that Clemente’s #21 will one day be retired league-wide as a way of honoring his heroism and his iconic status in Latin American baseball.

As we remember one of the game’s true legends, here are some items from the National League…

  • One interesting wild card in the Nationals’ attempts to keep Bryce Harper beyond 2018 could be his older brother Bryan Harper, MASNSports.com’s Byron Kerr writes.  The elder Harper, who just turned 28, is a left-handed reliever who posted strong numbers in 2015-16 for Washington’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, with good splits against left-handed batters.  The southpaw is preparing to return to the mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2016, and there’s at least a chance he could join his younger brother on the Nats roster this season.
  • While Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has said that the team is comfortable deploying Chris Herrmann, Jeff Mathis, and John Ryan Murphy behind the plate, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures the team has to make an upgrade at catcher before the offseason is out.  The D’Backs are one of the few contenders with a glaring need at catcher, which in my opinion could leave them well-positioned to sign Jonathan Lucroy or Alex Avila on a relative bargain contract, given the two free agents’ relative lack of suitors.  With other needs around the diamond and little payroll space to work with, however, the Snakes still might not have enough to afford Lucroy or Avila at even a discounted price.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the roundup of all the original content from the MLBTR writing team through the holiday season…

  • The offseason’s biggest news continues to be the relative lack of news on the free agent front, with most of the top names on the open market still looking for new teams as we head into 2018.  Back on December 19, Jeff Todd noted that only 17 of the names on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had signed new contracts.  Since that date, only three additional players (Wade Davis, Yonder Alonso, Jhoulys Chacin) have signed, with Davis being the only member of the top 10 to find a new deal.
  • Two of the remaining notables were subjects of the “Free Agent Profile” series, with Kyle Downing profiling Logan Morrison and Tim Dierkes looking at Lance Lynn’s market.
  • Lynn is one of a large number of free agent pitchers who have undergone at least one Tommy John surgery, so Tim’s list of the 20 biggest contracts signed by TJ patients will certainly look quite different after this offseason is complete.
  • The Phillies’ surprise signing of Carlos Santana inspired Tim to look at five recent instances of a seeming non-contender making a big free agent splash.
  • In the latest edition of Free Agent Faceoff, Steve Adams asked the MLBTR readership whether they would rather sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.  60.23% of readers polled chose Darvish in the battle of the winter’s top free agent starters.
  • In other polling news, Connor Byrne asked the readers where Eric Hosmer will sign, Tim made the same query about Arrieta’s next team, while Kyle wondered if any of the top free agents could sign a one-year “pillow contract” rather than a longer-term deal.
  • The “Taking Inventory” series lists the potential remaining trade chips on rebuilding teams, with Steve looking at the Tigers and Kyle focusing on the White Sox and the Marlins.
  • Speaking of Miami, J.T. Realmuto could be the latest Marlins star to be shipped out of town, as Kyle runs through the potential trade market for the catcher.
  • Mark Polishuk outlined each team’s weakest position from 2017 (by bWAR) and what each club has so far done (if anything) to upgrade that position for next season.
  • Several managers and front office executives are known to be entering their last guaranteed year under contract, and Jeff has the breakdown of these teams that could be weighing a change in leadership in 2018.
  • We just passed the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees.  Jeff looked back on that deal, which generated quite a bit of off-the-field controversy and ultimately generated more top tier young talent for the Yankees (via their subsequent trade of Chapman to the Cubs) than it did for Cincinnati.

NL Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Difo, Cubs

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Happy birthday to Sandy Koufax, as the legendary Dodgers southpaw turns 82 years old today.  Arm injuries forced Koufax into an early retirement after his age-30 season, bringing an end to arguably the most dominant four-year stretch of pitching in baseball history.  From 1963-66, Koufax posted a 1.86 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.74 K/BB rate over 1192 2/3 innings, capturing three Cy Young Awards and the 1963 NL MVP Award.

Some items from around the National League…

  • Nick Williams seems to be the likeliest of the Phillies outfielders to be used as a trade chip, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes, though there’s also a case to be made for the team to move one of Odubel Herrera or Aaron Altherr.  (Rhys Hoskins almost surely is staying put.)  Given that all three outfielders, and even Hoskins, have their share of question marks and can’t be entirely counted on as sure things going into 2018, Murphy notes that the Phillies might indeed stick to their stated plan of keeping all four players and juggling playing time based on matchups and situations.  Plans could change, of course, if the Phils are required to include one of the players in a trade for a young and controllable starting pitcher.
  • The Phillies are known to be looking for pitching, though NBCSports.com Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes that the team could wait until the July trade deadline to make a big addition to the rotation.  Asking prices could be lower for some pitchers by July, or the Phillies could have a better idea of what young players they’d be more comfortable giving up in a trade.  Interestingly, Salisbury notes that Cole Hamels could be targeted by the Phils if the Rangers fall out of contention, as both Hamels and the Phillies would have interest in the 2008 World Series hero returning to Philadelphia.
  • The Nationals rejected trade offers for Wilmer Difo last offseason, and now the young infielder is a key part of the team’s bench and potentially its second baseman of the future, the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo writes.  Difo held his own filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop last season, and if Difo continues to progress at the plate, the Nats might consider him as a possible second base option if Daniel Murphy leaves in free agency next winter.  If Murphy’s recovery from offseason knee surgery lingers past Opening Day, Difo could get an early audition at the keystone in April.
  • Since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs front office, pitchers drafted by the team have delivered just 30 innings in a Cubs uniform, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports (subscription required and recommended).  While Chicago has obviously excelled at acquiring undervalued starting pitching assets in trades, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve on its development of young pitchers, which was one reason Jim Benedict was recently hired as a special assistant within the baseball ops department.

No Extension Talks Between Twins, Brian Dozier

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The Twins have yet to speak to Brian Dozier about a contract extension, the second baseman tells Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Dozier entering the last season of his contract, the two sides have had “zero conversations about after next year,” Dozier said.

The lack of negotiations isn’t necessarily a surprise at this point in the offseason, of course, as most teams generally handle focus on signings, trade talks, and arbitration cases before turning their attention to in-house extensions.  (This winter’s particularly-stalled free agent market could even delay extension business later into Spring Training than usual for some clubs.)  Beyond Dozier, the Twins also have Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar slated to hit the open market after the 2018 season, with Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney also candidates for free agency depending on club options.

Still, Dozier stands out as Minnesota’s top impending free agent priority, though the idea of an extension between the two sides (or even Dozier still being in a Twins uniform entering 2018) seemed far-fetched at this point last year.  Dozier has long been the subject of trade rumors, and at one point in the 2016-17 offseason seemed to be on the verge of being dealt to the Dodgers.  Even last summer, Dozier was one of several Twins veterans the team was weighing as trade chips, though Minnesota eventually rebounded to capture a berth in the AL Wild Card game.

Last season’s surprising success changed the equation for the Twins, who are now exploring ways to build around its young core of talent in the hopes of contending again next year.  As such, keeping Dozier now looks like it could be a possibility, particularly since Minnesota has quite a bit of payroll flexibility beyond the 2018 season.  (Of course, the Twins might add to those future commitments in a significant way this offseason should they land a top free agent pitcher.)

Dozier is finishing up a previous extension with the Twins, a four-year/$20MM deal that covered his final pre-arbitration season and his three years of arbitration eligibility.  That contract ended up being a nice bargain for the Twins through Dozier’s arb years, as he has continued to perform as one of the game’s best second basemen, particularly over the last two seasons.  Dozier has hit .269/.349/.521 with 76 homers and 34 steals (out of 43 chances) over 1396 PA since the start of the 2016 season, accumulating 10.9 fWAR over that period.  From 2014-17, Dozier has been worth 18.8 fWAR, a total topped by only 13 other position players in all of baseball.

Dozier turns 31 in May, so an extension carries some risk as it would be covering a potential decline period as he leaves his prime.  The lack of return on the Twins’ extensions for Mauer and Phil Hughes could also make the team wary about another long-term deal.  On the flip side, Dozier has been a durable player, and 2017 was his most polished season yet as a hitter, with Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noting Dozier’s increased success at hitting to the opposite field.

In his preview of the Twins’ offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Daniel Murphy’s three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals or Justin Turner’s four-year, $64MM Dodgers contract as potential talking points for a Dozier extension, with Turner’s deal standing out as the better comparable.  One interesting wrinkle could be the fact that, without an extension, Dozier would be competing with several other superstar players in the very crowded 2018-19 free agent class.  Dozier would have an advantage, however, as the clear top option on the second base market.

If an extension isn’t worked out, the Twins will likely explore trading Dozier at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.  For now, however, it looks like the Twins aren’t moving the second baseman, which is something Dozier appreciates after so much past speculation.  “It’s kind of funny how winning can change a lot of different things as far as offseason trade talks,” Dozier said.  “I recognize it’s a business. We all do. But it has been pretty relieving not hearing my name every single day about where I might be traded. That’s a good thing.”

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