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Archives for November 2017

Free Agent Faceoff: Lance Lynn Vs. Alex Cobb

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When it comes to the starting pitching market this offseason, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will hold some of the widest appeal of any names on the market. Both right-handers would be an upgrade to virtually any rotation in the Majors, and both figure to be more affordable to interested parties than top-of-the-market names like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Each enjoyed a solid 2017 campaign in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though neither has fully regained the form he showed prior to that operation. Both players rejected one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers, so both will require draft-pick forfeiture to sign.

Lance Lynn | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Lynn, 31 next May, is the older of the two but has also been more durable throughout his career. While he missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he’s averaged 31.8 starts and 189 innings per season across his past five healthy campaigns — dating back to the 2012 season. The 3.43 ERA that Lynn turned in this past season bears a striking resemblance to the 3.39 mark he’s compiled in 943 innings from 2012-17.

Looking beyond Lynn’s ERA, though, there were plenty more red flags in 2017 than he had in his peak seasons. Lynn’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate are all worse than the marks he posted in his best seasons, and a huge spike in his homer-to-flyball rate (14.2 percent) led to a career-worst 1.30 HR/9 mark. Of course, home runs were up leaguewide, with many believing an altered composition of the baseball being a primary factor in that trend. Lynn’s secondary numbers are far less encouraging than his ERA, but he did take the ball 33 times and log 186 1/3 innings — largely reestablishing himself as a reliable source of innings.

Alex Cobb | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Cobb, on the other hand, will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 30. Unlike Lynn, durability has never been a strong point in his favor and could, in fact, be the single largest red flag attached to his free agency. Cobb tossed 179 1/3 innings in 2017, and that marked a career-high. We’ve never seen a free-agent starter without a 180-inning season under his belt score a four-year commitment on the open market, but there’s a belief that Cobb could set a new precedent in that regard.

In those 179 1/3 innings, Cobb turned in a 3.66 ERA but did so with a pedestrian K/9 mark of 6.4, albeit against a strong 2.2 BB/9 mark and with an above-average 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Interested teams will no doubt be heartened by the fact that Cobb’s K/BB numbers overwhelmingly trended in the right direction down the stretch, as he posted a 38-to-8 K/BB ratio with a 2.82 ERA and a 3.01 xFIP in his final 38 1/3 innings. That bears a strong resemblance to Cobb’s peak, when he turned in a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 309 2/3 frames. Of course, that performance also came way back in 2013-14, and until his final seven starts of the season, he hadn’t approximated that form post-surgery.

The markets for Cobb and Lynn seem almost certain to overlap, as they’ll be widely regarded as the Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers on the open market (excluding Shohei Ohtani, whose unique market can’t exactly be compared to that of standard Major League free agents). Teams will weigh Lynn’s considerably greater track record of durability against Cobb’s strong finish and superior performance leading up to Tommy John surgery. Either of the two could slot comfortably into the middle of most big league rotations or, at worst, serve as a strong fourth or fifth starter in a more premium rotation.

Obviously, this is a high-level look and there are many other considerations to factor into the decision. That said, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand on the issue (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Braves, Lind, Phillies

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Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter are still seeking additional investors for their ownership group even after being formally approved as the new owners of the Marlins, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Sherman/Jeter group is still looking to add about $250MM from outside investors, though Heyman notes that the league is “quite comfortable” with the new ownership group’s current financial state. Interestingly, Heyman has obtained some slides from a “teaser” email sent to potential investors in which the Marlins outline a number of “strategic priorities” for improving revenue. Among the new means of revenue to be explored are a new television contract, selling the naming rights to the stadium, new sponsorship/advertising opportunities and an increased focus on utilizing Marlins Park to host non-baseball events (e.g. concerts).

Elsewhere in the NL East…

  • While former Braves president of baseball ops John Hart, current CEO Terry McGuirk and current president John Schuerholz all escaped league-issued punishment in the team’s international free-agent/amateur draft scandal, the entire scenario tarnishes their legacies within the game and within the Braves organization, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). That trio’s lack of oversight allowed the guilty parties within the organization to “run wild,” Rosenthal notes, and the uncertainty surrounding the involvement of Braves’ higher-ups will linger. Peter Gammons rhetorically asked, “So who in Braves’ ownership ok’d all the cash to Coppolella?” following the investigation’s completion (Twitter link). That is just one of the many questions surrounding the incident that remains unanswered — a reality that flies in the face of comments made by McGuirk last month when telling Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “I don’t think there will be any questions (unanswered) when we are able to discuss it.”
  • In his latest Nationals Inbox piece, MLB.com’s Jamal Collier writes that he doesn’t foresee a reunion between the Nats and first baseman Adam Lind this offseason. Washington’s decision to turn down their half of a $5MM mutual option suggests that they’re not willing to pay him at a rate he may very well be able to find elsewhere on the open market. The Nats will likely utilize Brian Goodwin as a fourth outfielder in 2018, Collier notes, but Lind’s absence will make finding a backup first baseman/corner bat off the bench a priority this winter.
  • The Phillies have named 28-year-old Pedro Guerrero, a former Dodgers minor league infielder, as their new assistant hitting coach, per a club announcement. As Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, that suggests that Rick Kranitz, who was the team’s assistant pitching coach in 2017, will be named the team’s new pitching coach for the 2018 season. The Phillies have previously announced that Kranitz would be on the staff next year but haven’t revealed his role with the team. However, they’re only allowed to add two more coaches before reaching the maximum allotment and still need a pitching coach, first base coach and bench coach. As for Guerrero, he’s an outside-the-box hire, to be sure. But, Guerrero has already spent two seasons as a minor league bench coach in the Dodgers organization  and has some familiarity with newly minted skipper Gabe Kapler from the pair’s time together in Los Angeles.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/22/17

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Here are Wednesday’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Indians announced that they’ve signed left-hander Jeff Beliveau, right-hander Leonel Campos and infielder Drew Maggi to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. Both Beliveau and Campos pitched out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in 2017. The 30-year-old Beliveau tossed 15 2/3 innings and struggled to a 7.47 ERA, though he racked up 17 strikeouts against six walks in that time. Beliveau threw 24 excellent innings for the Rays in 2014 but has seen his career slowed by shoulder surgery. As for Campos, the 30-year-old posted a 2.63 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings with Toronto last year but also walked eight in that time. He’s averaged 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple-A but has also battled control issues. As for Maggi, the 28-year-old hit .271/.367/.392 in 298 Triple-A plate appearances with the Dodgers last year and owns a lifetime .272/.362/.385 batting line at that level.
  • Outfielder Zach Borenstein is joining the Mets on a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The 27-year-old posted a .272/.337/.440 line with the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016 before taking a step forward and mashing at a .279/.351/.573 clip there this past season. Those numbers came in a hitter-friendly setting, though Borenstein’s overall .283/.355/.502 slash line in seven minor league seasons is similarly impressive.
  • The White Sox have signed third baseman/corner outfielder Patrick Leonard to a minor league deal, tweets Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Leonard, who turned 25 last month, was one of the pieces the Royals sent to the Rays in the famed James Shields/Wade Davis for Wil Myers/Jake Odorizzi swap between the two teams. The former fifth-rounder logged strong numbers through the Double-A level in his career but has thus far struggled at a .254/.317/.375 pace in parts of two Triple-A seasons.

Free Agent Notes: Jay, Shaw, Frazier

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Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has identified his five best potential free agent values and, on the other hand, five most worrisome open-market landmines. Those posts are always interesting and are well worth a read as we wait for the market to get started in earnest.

Here are a few free agent notes on Thanksgiving Eve:

  • The Mariners have engaged with free agent outfielder Jon Jay, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It “seems as though there’s some momentum there,” he adds, while also cautioning that there isn’t a deal in place at present. Jay checked in just inside the top forty players on MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, with a predicted contract of two years and $14MM. Last year, he slashed .296/.374/.375 in 433 plate appearances with the Cubs while seeing time across the outfield. It seems unlikely that the left-handed hitter would command everyday time in Seattle, but might effectively step into the place in the rotation vacated by fellow free agent Jarrod Dyson.
  • It’s possible the Mets will “move[] soon” to add to their bullpen, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. He suggests right-handed free agent Bryan Shaw as a name to watch for the organization, which has indicated an interest in beefing up its relief corps in part to reduce the workload on a rotation that has dealt with health issues of late. Shaw, 30, is about as steady and reliable as relievers come. He carries a 3.13 lifetime ERA through 446 1/3 innings across seven seasons. Shaw has handled at least 64 frames in each of the past five campaigns and has never finished a season with an earned run average over 3.52 (last year’s mark). He has also paced the American League in appearances in three separate seasons for the Indians, including each of the past two. MLBTR rated Shaw the 25th-best free agent available and predicted he’d score a $21MM guarantee over three years, though there’s likely some contractual upside beyond that mark.
  • Though Todd Frazier has spent most of his career at third base and is still capable of manning the position, Feinsand reports that his representatives are pitching the veteran as an option at either infield corner. The 31-year-old Frazier turned in a solid 2017 campaign, split between the White Sox and Yankees, in which he posted a .213/.344/.428 batting line with 27 home runs. While that represented a big jump in the on-base department over his prior two seasons, Frazier also wasn’t quite as prolific in terms of power as he was after swatting 35 and 40 long balls in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Odds are that the team to sign Frazier will mostly value him as an option at third, particularly given that there are a fair number of other options available at first base, but the openness to both positions certainly won’t hurt his market outlook. Frazier landed ahead of the two players listed above on our free agent board, with a predicted three-year, $33MM contract placing him 17th on the list.

Orioles Acquire Jaycob Brugman

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The Orioles have acquired outfielder Jaycob Brugman from the Athletics, per a club announcement. A player to be named or cash will go to Oakland in return.

Brugman, 25, was just designated for assignment by the A’s. He reached the majors for the first time last year, posting a .266/.346/.343 slash over 162 plate appearances. A generally solid on-base threat in the minors, the left-handed hitter has shown a bit of pop at times but has not always sustained it in the upper minors. Metrics did not view his work in center field favorably in 2017, though that was a short sample and scouting reports have generally suggested he’s a solid overall defender.

[RELATED: Orioles Depth Chart]

It’s certainly possible that the Orioles could allow Brugman to compete for a reserve/platoon outfield role in camp. He’ll play at or near the league minimum and might help the team save funds to dedicate to the rotation, which is clearly a more pressing area of need. The O’s have a variety of right-handed bats to work with already. Adam Jones and Trey Mancini are certainties to see regular time. Mark Trumbo will likely mostly function as a DH but could factor in the mix, while top prospect Austin Hays will receive consideration despite a tepid late-season debut. Reserve options on hand include switch-hitting Anthony Santander and right-handed-hitting Joey Rickard.

Padres Sign Colten Brewer, Designate Kyle Lloyd

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The Padres have announced the signing of righty Colten Brewer to a MLB contract. To clear a 40-man spot, the organization designated fellow right-hander Kyle Lloyd for assignment.

Brewer, 25, was a minor-league free agent from the Yankees system. He struggled last year in his first attempt at Triple-A, coughing up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in ten innings. But Brewer compiled 41 1/3 innings of 1.31 ERA ball, with 9.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9, at the penultimate level of the minors.

As for Lloyd, he made his first MLB start in 2017 but otherwise spent the year in the upper minors. Through 147 1/3 innings, Lloyd worked to a 5.01 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

Astros Place Juan Centeno On Outright Waivers

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The Astros have placed catcher Juan Centeno on outright waivers in order to remove him from the team’s 40-man roster, according to a report from Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle.

Centeno is still on the waiver wire, but Kaplan writes that Houston is hoping he’ll clear and remain with the organization at Triple-A. It’ll be his choice whether to do so, as he was previously outrighted by the Twins in 2016.

With a fully-stocked MLB roster, the ’Stros were likely always going to need to clear some space before potentially adding players from outside the organization. The 28-year-old Centeno was particularly vulnerable given the presence of Brian McCann, Evan Gattis, and Max Stassi.

Centeno has seen big league action in each of the past five seasons, carrying a composite .235/.289/.339 slash line through 315 plate appearances with four different organizations. The left-handed hitter spent most of 2017 at Triple-A, hitting .311/.354/.383 in hist 257 plate appearances

Central Notes: Votto, Kinsler, Twins Pitching Targets

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Just in case there was any doubt, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes in response to a fan inquiry that there’s no indication whatsoever that Reds first baseman Joey Votto will end up being moved this winter. The polished batsman, who very nearly took home National League MVP honors for the 2017 season, has given every indication that “he doesn’t want to leave the Reds,” says Sheldon, and can control his own fate through a full no-trade clause.

  • Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler does not enjoy quite so much control over his own fate, but does have a ten-team no-trade list that was drawn up at the end of the 2017 campaign.* Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription link) has the latest on his interesting trade candidacy, including a look at the feasibility of a move to third for the veteran — which some teams have reportedly considered as they weigh an offer to acquire him. At present, it is not publicly known which teams have contemplated that possibility or — yet more importantly — which are among those that cannot acquire Kinsler without his consent. The Detroit organization would obviously need to work with Kinsler and his representatives if it were to find a match with one of the ten protected rivals, but Strang reports that, at least as of last week, that subject has not yet been broached. As we discussed in examining his potential market yesterday, there are perhaps only a few very clear trade matches on paper at this point, though certainly a fair number of others could be imagined depending upon a variety of factors. Kinsler’s no-trade rights may not come into play at all, but might also afford him an opportunity to nix a move if it is not to his liking.
  • While the Twins are said to be taking a look at a variety of controllable starters, there’s “no indication” at this point that they have engaged with the Rays on Chris Archer or the Marlins on Dan Straily, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). It stands to reason, though, that both would at least draw internal consideration. The former is quite a lofty target for any team, as he’d draw huge interest if he’s made available in trade talks. The latter is a useful hurler in his own right after turning in solid results for two consecutive years. Straily’s affordable control would surely hold some appeal to Minnesota, though for the same reason the Marlins will likely set forth a relatively steep asking price for a starter who is noted more for his steadiness and contract than anything approaching dominant peripherals.
  • The Twins will need to chase down some relief arms, too. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports on his podcast (audio link) that the club has engaged the Padres on Brad Hand and the Rays on Alex Colome. Minnesota was previously reported to have chatted with the Reds about Raisel Iglesias, and these new names fit the same general profile as established late-inning arms with affordable remaining control. All will come with appropriately lofty price tags. Berardino also tweets that Cubs lefty Justin Wilson might represent a target for the Twins. Having struggled last year upon landing in Chicago, Wilson could conceivably become available, though that’s far from certain. Minnesota eyed the power southpaw in the past, says Berardino, though that occurred before the current front office leadership came into office.

*An earlier version of this post wrongly suggested that Kinsler had not yet compiled his current no-trade list and mistakenly attributed that notion to Strang’s report. The error was ours and we apologize for any confusion.

Process For Signing Prospects Stripped From Braves

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Yesterday brought final word on the long-awaited penalties for the Braves’ amateur signing infractions. Among other things, the Atlanta organization has been stripped of a dozen prospects who were brought in through improper means.

Many of those players were part of a highly-regarded crop of international talent, so they will be of keen interest to other teams. That’s particularly true now that they have had their first taste of the minors, increasing the  information available to make an evaluation. MLB will also stage a showcase at the end of the month for these young players.

New information, of course, isn’t always a good thing. Kevin Maitan, the top name on the list of newly-minted free agents, certainly did not boost his stock with a .220/.273/.323 showing in the Appalachian League. Those with Baseball America subscriptions will certainly want to read an updated scouting report on Maitan from J.J. Cooper, who also provides a look at the best of the other prospects who have now been set free.

So, what’s the process for signing these players? We learned some elements of the process yesterday, and MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo provides a more complete look at the ad hoc rules that will apply here. Here’s a breakdown:

  • The players — who get to keep their original bonuses but cannot be represented by the agents that negotiated their original contracts — will be subject to international signing pool restrictions but are otherwise free to sign with any organization.
  • MLB teams will be allowed a fresh $200K of bonus pool space to work with to sign any of these prospects. They may elect to draw from either their current signing period pool allocation or that of the 2018-19 period (but not both).
  • All MLB teams but the Braves can sign the prospects between December 5th of this year and January 15th of the next. Any players that do not sign within that period will no longer be eligible to receive a signing bonus. The Braves are eligible to pursue any still-unsigned prospects (without a bonus offer) beginning on May 1, 2018.

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