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NL Notes: Phillies, Reds, Giants

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The latest on a few National League clubs:

  • Second baseman Cesar Hernandez has emerged as either a legitimate building block for the Phillies or someone they could dangle over the winter in an effort to acquire sorely needed starting pitching help, Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com observes. The 27-year-old has combined for 7.0 fWAR and 5.5 rWAR in 1,139 plate appearances dating back to last season, thanks in part to a .293/.367/.406 batting line. Hernandez’s OBP over that span ranks 24th in the majors, and the Phillies’ front office places a great deal of value in his ability to get on base, Lawrence writes. The switch-hitter is controllable through 2020 via arbitration, further adding to his appeal.
  • Reds prospect Hunter Greene entered this year’s draft as a right-handed pitcher/shortstop, but the second overall pick is no longer eyeing a two-way career. Rather, he’s solely focused on pitching, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. The 18-year-old revealed that he feels a “lot more natural” on the mound and suggested that working as both a pitcher and a position player in the pros would’ve been too physically taxing for him. “Big kudos to the guys in the big leagues who are playing every day, it’s a lot of work on the body, the arm and the feet. It’s a lot,” Greene said. “To be able to have rest days and recover and be able to have that day where you go out and perform and pitch at your best, it’s more comfortable for me.”
  • Giants general manager Bobby Evans announced Saturday that the team will exercise Matt Moore’s $9MM option for 2018. For his part, Moore told Jonathan Hawthorne of MLB.com and other reporters that he didn’t expect the Giants to make a decision on his future so soon. The southpaw is glad they did, though. “It makes me very happy. … It definitely did take me by surprise,” Moore said. “It was something cool to kind of see because it’s probably a month and a half before they even have to do anything.” The 28-year-old Moore has pitched to an uncharacteristically bloated 5.39 ERA this season, but he noted that the Giants’ decision to bring him back indicates they believe his 2017 struggles are a blip. “It is nice to have the confidence that this is something that’s very temporary — the type of season I’m having isn’t expected here on out,” he stated.

Three Needs: New York Mets

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.

Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…

1.) Add reliable starting pitching:

Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.

Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.

From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.

2.) Sort out the infield:

It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.

Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.

If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.

3.) Get relief help:

Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: AL Cy Young, J.D., Phillies, Tribe, Padres

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

NL Notes: Brewers, Mackanin, McCarthy

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The Brewers’ rebuilding efforts have worked more quickly than most outside experts predicted, and GM David Stearns credits the team’s resilience, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “Really, last year, while we maybe had a month or two that was disappointing, we never went on those prolonged losing streaks,” says Stearns. “That speaks to what has been a theme of this year – the resilience of this team. We talk about that a lot. A lot of the credit for that goes to the character of our players, and the culture and energy that Craig (Counsell) and his staff have instilled, going back to Spring Training of last year.” Of course, as Haudricourt notes, the Brewers’ success this year does not guarantee they won’t take a step backward in 2018. Stearns, though, has been careful to avoid specific season wins goals, either on the low end or the high end, and focus instead on assembling a talented group of players who can be competitive for the next several seasons. Here’s more from the NL.

  • The Phillies have struggled this season, but GM Matt Klentak still seems to have manager Pete Mackanin’s back, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. The Phillies extended Mackanin through 2018, with an option for 2019, in May. “When we signed him to the extension, the intention was to take the drama out of both this year and next year,” says Klentak. “Beyond that we’ll have to see, but I think when we signed Pete, that was right in the beginning stages of our struggles. The fact that he and his staff were able to weather the storm and get us going on the right track was really important for us this season.” The Phillies are 57-90, but it seems Mackanin will return next season.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says righty Brandon McCarthy will rejoin the club next weekend, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. McCarthy has been out since late July with a blister issue. There won’t be space for McCarthy in the Dodgers’ crowded rotation (although Roberts isn’t ruling out the possibility McCarthy could start at some point), but there will in its crowded clubhouse — McCarthy will likely become the 40th active player on the Dodgers’ roster, and will pitch in relief. McCarthy has struggled to stay healthy this season, but has generally been effective when available, posting a 3.84 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 86 2/3 innings spanning 16 starts.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Royals, Otani, Nationals, Dodgers

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video from FOX Sports.

  • The Royals’ best course with potential free agents Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer might be to extend qualifying offers to all of them, Rosenthal opines. That would at least give them a windfall of draft picks if all three players were to sign big contracts elsewhere. The Royals seem to be running out of time to contend, and the extra draft picks would give them a head start on reloading.
  • There has been some chatter about the possibility that teams could circumvent posting rules to lure Shohei Otani by promising to sign him to a small deal now and a big extension in the future. Rosenthal, though, notes that the league would not allow such an arrangement. Of course, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out, the signing team would have plausible deniability if it waited to officially strike the second deal until after Otani had played in the Majors for a year, since teams frequently try to sign top young talents to extensions. Such a deal would have to fit in with established precedents, however.
  • The Nationals’ recent promotion of top prospect Victor Robles underscores just how many outfield options the team will have even if Bryce Harper departs via free agency following the 2018 season, Rosenthal says. In addition to Robles, they have Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin, all of whom are under team control for the next several seasons, plus another top young prospect in Juan Soto.
  • The Dodgers’ outstanding depth could allow them to use lefty starter Alex Wood and righty Kenta Maeda as multi-inning relievers in the playoffs, Rosenthal notes. That means the Dodgers would be able to use quick hooks on any starter having a bad outing.

Giants To Exercise Matt Moore’s 2018 Option

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The Giants will exercise lefty Matt Moore’s $9MM option for 2018, GM Bobby Evans tells Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. By doing so, they will avoid paying a $1M buyout and, more importantly, retain a $10MM option or a $750K buyout on Moore for 2019.

Moore has struggled in 2017, posting a 5.39 ERA over 167 innings in his first full season in San Francisco. Evans’ admission comes as little surprise, however, as FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Giants seemed likely to retain Moore as part of an effort to retain pitching depth. Also, Moore is relatively young at 28 and posted reasonable peripherals (7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9) this season, and he has pitched significantly better in the second half than in the first, cutting his BB/9 by about a third.

By exercising the option, the Giants get Moore, and flexibility for 2019, at what appears to be a reasonable cost. They will effectively be able to retain Moore for one year and $9.75MM, giving them a price similar to those of recent contracts for free agents like Andrew Cashner and Bartolo Colon, whose futures looked questionable at the time their deals were signed. The Giants will also, of course, get an option that could turn out to be quite valuable.

Nonetheless, the Giants’ decision perhaps was not an automatic one, and not just because of Moore’s performance. The Giants already had north of $150MM committed for 2018, including salaries of $18MM or more for six players (assuming Johnny Cueto does not exercise his opt-out clause). Moore’s salary will add even more to their 2018 payroll.

Cafardo’s Latest: Lowrie, Fister, Geren, Cobb, Braves

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Here are highlights of the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • The Athletics have a $6MM option or a $1M buyout on Jed Lowrie’s services for 2018, and Lowrie says he hopes the A’s retain him. “I love playing here,” he says. “I think being here surrounded by the good young players we have has been fun. So I hope to stay here, but you never know.” It would be eyebrow-raising, to say the least, if the A’s declined Lowrie’s option — he’s batting .276/.358/.444 this season. He could, however, be a trade candidate as the team attempts to find space for youngster Franklin Barreto.
  • Red Sox righty Doug Fister, a free agent to be, is being scouted by teams considering adding him over the winter, Cafardo writes. Fister did not sign until May of this season, but Cafardo notes that he’s unlikely to have to wait that long to find a big-league deal in the coming winter. Fister’s 4.40 ERA in 77 2/3 innings this year is similar to those of his last two seasons, but he’s bumped his K/9 from 5.7 in 2016 to 8.0 this season. He’s also fared well in the season’s second half. Those factors could make him a more attractive free agent this time around.
  • Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren could be a favorite to take over the Mets managerial job in the likely event that the Mets part ways with Terry Collins. Geren was previously the Mets’ bench coach and is a favorite of Mets GM Sandy Alderson.
  • The Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays have seen Rays righty Alex Cobb up close in recent seasons, and they’ll be interested when he hits the market this winter, writes Cafardo. Cobb will also attract plenty of interest from outside the AL East as well, as he’ll be a good and more affordable alternative to a free agent ace.
  • Braves special assistant Bo Porter would have the edge over coach Ron Washington for the team’s managerial job should the Braves part ways with Brian Snitker. Snitker had previously looked very likely to return for 2018, but Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that the Braves were “assessing their managerial situation,” with Porter and Washington (both of them former MLB managers) as possibilities to replace Snitker.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Tigers, Athletics

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Two Red Sox position players, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, feature prominently on Jim Callis of MLB.com’s list of the MLB rookies with the most potential. Benintendi, Callis writes, “combines pure hitting ability, power, speed and defense in a manner reminiscent of former Boston star Fred Lynn.” In fact, three of the top four players on the list are Red Sox products, with Chicago’s Yoan Moncada squeezing in between Cody Bellinger and Devers. Here’s more from the American League.

5 Key Stories: Calhoun, Otani, Nelson, Athletics

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Here are the top stories from the past week here at MLBTR.

Willie CalhounRangers promote Willie Calhoun, release Tyson Ross. In a pair of related moves, the Rangers promoted top prospect Willie Calhoun (the headliner in this summer’s Yu Darvish trade) and released veteran starter Tyson Ross. The 22-year-old Calhoun had batted .300/.355/.572 with 31 homers at the Triple-A level this year. Ross struggled to a 7.71 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 6.8 BB/9 over 49 innings in Texas after signing with the Rangers in January.

Shohei Otani appears likely to request to be posted. Reports from Japan indicate that Japanese superstar Shohei Otani will ask his current club, the Nippon Ham Fighters, to post him this winter. If he is, he’ll be a key to the offseason free agent market. (Here’s a scouting report on Otani.)

Jimmy Nelson out for remainder of season. Young starter Jimmy Nelson has been a key to the Brewers’ surprising season, but he’s done for the year after being diagnosed with a right rotator cuff strain and a partial anterior labrum tear that will require surgery. The Brewers will also be without outfielder Lewis Brinson, who has a hamstring strain.

Athletics identify Oakland ballpark site. While there remain many hurdles before the A’s get a new ballpark, they’ve identified a potential site for a new home. A new ballpark at that site would keep them in Oakland for the foreseeable future.

Teams complete Justin Upton, Neil Walker deals. While it obviously isn’t trading season, teams put the finishing touches on some previously announced transactions this week. The Angels sent 19-year-old righty Elvin Rodriguez to Detroit to complete the Justin Upton trade, while the Brewers shipped righty Eric Hanhold to the Mets to put the finishing touches on the Neil Walker deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Needs: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Three Needs series: the Detroit Tigers.

1. Trade Ian Kinsler. 

This is about as obvious as these sorts of decisions get. Kinsler is already 35. He’s going to cost either $11MM or $12MM, depending upon whether he wins the A.L. Gold Glove for second base. (More on that here.) And it’s perfectly plausible that he could, since he continues to draw top-notch reviews for his glovework. Though Kinsler has dipped at the plate this year — he’s at career lows in batting average (.234) and slugging (.397) and is fighting to stay ahead of his prior low in OBP (currently .309) — he has a lengthy record of above-average hitting. And he also carries only a .243 batting average on balls in play this year despite making more hard contact (37.2%) than he ever has before, indicating some positive regression could be on the way. Even in a down year, Kinsler will put up at around 2 WAR; last year, he topped five (and, by measure of the DRS-based rWAR measure, did the same for the three prior seasons as well).

Bottom line: teams are going to see appeal in adding such a high-quality veteran at a palatable price on a one-year deal. Detroit has no real business employing Kinsler at this point. While his partial no-trade clause could factor in, Kinsler will surely see the merit in finding a new home with a contender. Demand at second base may not be immense, but there should be enough to support a decent return. The Tigers should be, and likely are, laying groundwork now to begin an auction process for the veteran.

2. Listen on Michael Fulmer, but hold out for a huge return.

You’ve heard the phrase “controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter” — or some variation of it — discussed quite a bit in recent months and years. Everybody wants ’em, but there aren’t enough to go around. And as that class of pitcher goes, Fulmer is near the top.

Fulmer is still just 24 and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He won’t reach arbitration until 2019 (as a Super Two) and won’t hit free agency until 2023. His overall ERA has sagged this year on the whole, but he carried an exact match to last year’s effort (3.06) following his start on July 15th. Fulmer faded as a nerve issue became problematic. While that did ultimately require surgery, it’s not expected to limit him next year — and, as an added bonus, his elbow ligaments just received a visual inspection and clean bill of health from the world’s most famous baseball surgeon (Dr. James Andrews). Though he doesn’t rack up all that many strikeouts, most agree it’s not a concern, as Fulmer dominates with a four-pitch power arsenal that may allow him to continue to suppress batting averages on balls in play.

We’ve already heard of some teams approaching the Tigers with interest, and that’ll surely continue. The market has produced huge returns for pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana; while Fulmer doesn’t have the former’s excellence or the latter’s track record, he’s much younger and cheaper. Clearly, even with the surgery, he’s one of the game’s best trade chips.

Under the circumstances, the Tigers ought to listen in earnest to offers on Fulmer. But the club would be foolish to pre-commit to dealing him for less than a true haul of young talent. There’s always risk in hanging onto a pitcher that has immediate and long-term value. But that’s just what the team should be willing to do if suitors don’t come calling with packages featuring multiple players that project to be quality big leaguers.

3. Don’t be afraid to lose.

Of course, Detroit shouldn’t hold onto Fulmer or others out of any inclination to keep winning games. The pain will come, and already has; the danger now is in not embracing it fully. Nabbing a few more W’s in 2018 is likely only to cost draft position and extend the timeline of a successful rebuild. There’s nothing the Tigers can do but play Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann, and Victor Martinez (if he’s able to return). Other than those high-priced veterans, who’ll need to reestablish some value to be traded, the efforts should be directed toward developing players, finding hidden gems, and generating trade chips.

That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t give some money to veterans. But they ought to be the sort whose control rights come with some real upside — younger free agents who haven’t yet harnessed their talents or still-useful veterans that slipped through the cracks. While the team had its reasons this year for giving significant time this year to over-30 role players such as Andrew Romine (114 games) and Alex Presley (207 plate appearances despite lengthy DL stints), doing so next year may not be wise.

Instead, the Tigers ought to be willing to part with useful relievers such as Shane Greene and Alex Wilson if there’s something worthwhile to be brought back. They should keep running out Mikie Mahtook unless and until he proves he can’t sustain solid production. And they ought to find out what they have not only in Dixon Machado, but also in reserve catcher John Hicks (who has hit quite well) and newly acquired prospect Jeimer Candelario.

If some buy-low opportunities arise in free agency, that’s always worth considering, but the Tigers already maintain a hefty payroll. And the bet here is that a wide variety of other teams will provide competition (and thus raise salaries) for the sort of short-term assets that might be of interest. Instead, perhaps, working the waiver wire and minor-league free agency will be more fruitful avenues for Detroit. The club should be open to taking chances there and perhaps also pursuing a few Rule 5 players.

It seems likely there will be fewer teams than usual in 2018 that truly don’t care about winning. The Tigers may join the White Sox as the only teams that are really just focused on aggregating young talent (though that could change in the coming weeks and there are a few other organizations that won’t be looking to spend much to improve in the near-term). That’s actually a good thing for Detroit, because the club has a clean path to a top draft pick and can operate without worry of results while other, slightly more advanced rebuilders begin to feel demand for results. The front office already made the hardest call in trading Justin Verlander. There’s no reason to look back now.

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