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2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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About 24% of the MLB regular season is in the books.  The Astros, Yankees, and Nationals currently reign supreme.  Familiar names Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Chris Sale top the WAR leaderboards.  Though we’re only in mid-May, there’s a subset of players who can’t help but look ahead: those eligible for free agency after the season.  Here, we attempt to rank the projected free agents based on their earning power.  For the full list of 2017-18 MLB free agents, click here.

1.  Yu Darvish.  Nine starts into his season, Darvish is not quite in vintage form.  His 2.76 ERA ranks 11th in the American League, though strikeouts are down and walks are up.  The key stat might be his 58 2/3 innings pitched, good for a second-place tie in the league.  Darvish’s second career 200-inning campaign would quiet concerns after his 22-month Tommy John layoff, possibly leading to the largest contract of the winter.  In the short term, the question is whether Darvish will be traded this summer.  The Rangers have climbed into the Wild Card discussion with an eight-game winning streak, though they’re already eight games behind the Astros for the division lead.

2.  Johnny Cueto.  In the early going of 2017, Cueto has posted his worst ground-ball rate since his 2008 rookie season.  He’s allowing home runs twice as often as last year and also has an abnormally low strand rate, leading to a 4.50 ERA.  I think his numbers will be fine in the end, and he’ll opt out of his remaining four years and $84MM.  The Giants may attempt to extend Cueto prior to that point, or they could wind up trading him this summer.  The slow-starting club already faces an uphill battle to reach the playoffs.

3.  Jake Arrieta.  As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs put it in the headline of his article this week, “Jake Arrieta Has Not Been Good.”  The surface statistical reasons bear some similarity to Cueto: ground-balls are down, home runs are up, and he’s been stranding fewer runners on the bases.  5.44 ERA notwithstanding, Arrieta is still a quality pitcher in his present form.  He may settle in as a sub-4.00 ERA number three-type starter, which would only be disappointing compared to the dizzying heights of his 2015 Cy Young season.  Darvish, Cueto, and Arrieta should all by vying for five-year deals, and may shuffle spots in these rankings all year long.

4.  Jonathan Lucroy.  Since we last checked in, Lucroy’s bat has come alive with a .328/.380/.469 line in 71 plate appearances.  Talking to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Lucroy did not attribute his April struggles to his impending free agency, as you’d expect him to say.  On the defensive side, Samuel Hale of WFAA wrote an article contending that Lucroy “used to be an elite framer, but that time has passed.”  Lucroy’s pitch framing numbers will be worth monitoring as we try to assess whether he will receive the largest contract for a catcher in free agent history.

5.  J.D. Martinez.  After suffering a foot injury on March 18th, Martinez made his 2017 Tigers debut last Friday.  He’s clubbed five homers in six games since then, so I’d say his foot is fine.  Martinez, 30 in August, may establish himself as the top free agent bat and move higher in these rankings.

6.  Eric Hosmer.  Don’t count Hosmer out yet.  The Royals’ much-maligned first baseman is hitting .347/.411/.484 in 107 plate appearances since we last checked in.  The 27-year-old has apparently been laying off inside pitches in recent weeks, to much success.  The Royals are in last place in the AL Central and are unlikely to make the playoffs, which could prompt a summer sell-off of impending free agents like Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Jason Vargas, and Alcides Escobar.

7.  Justin Upton.  Upton has posted a fine season so far, with a .248/.368/.504 line in 144 plate appearances.  Interestingly, he’s drawn a walk in 15.3% of plate appearances, though he’s never reached 12% in a full season and bottomed out at 8% last year.  Upton’s newfound selectivity and move toward becoming a Three True Outcomes hitter has been a net positive.  If he posts another 30 home run season but draws 90 walks instead of 50-60, Upton may be compelled to opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his Tigers contract.

8.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka has always been on shakier ground than the Big Three of this free agent class, given his health history, lower strikeout rate, and home run tendencies.  More than a fifth of the flyballs Tanaka has allowed this year have left the yard.  Those 10 home runs allowed in 45 innings have helped his ERA balloon to 5.80.  His last outing was particularly ugly, with four long balls leading to a second-inning exit on Derek Jeter Day.  There’s talk of a mechanical issue, and maybe this is nothing more than a blip on the radar.  With a rough year, Tanaka could have a tricky decision on his opt-out clause, since he has three years and $67MM remaining on his Yankees contract.

9.  Michael Pineda.  Tanaka’s rotation-mate has a home run problem as well, with a full quarter of Pineda’s fly-balls going for home runs.  Nonetheless, he’s posted a ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio accompanied by a solid 3.42 ERA through eight starts.  Despite the 10 home runs allowed, Pineda has been able to avoid disaster starts.  Has the 28-year-old actually “figured it out” and harnessed his considerable stuff?  Jake Devin of Pinstripe Alley asked that question earlier this week, and found the results to be inconclusive.

10.  Wade Davis.  Davis has been utterly dominant to start off his Cubs career, with 17 1/3 scoreless innings and 22 strikeouts against five walks.  Davis’ streak actually goes back another seven innings, into last September with the Royals.  He’s no stranger to this kind of dominance, having been unscored upon for 31 2/3 innings in 2014 (tied for the 17th-best scoreless streak for a reliever in MLB history).  If Davis continues to distance himself from last year’s flexor strain, he could surpass Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract from last winter.

While Davis moves into the No. 10 spot on the list, his former teammate, Greg Holland, is close behind. Holland has been dominant and needs to finish just 30 games to trigger a $15MM player option.  He entered the day with 18 under his belt already.  Perhaps Holland’s lengthy Tommy John layoff will make teams reluctant to give him four years, but he’s a few months younger than Davis and is quickly reestablishing himself. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart leads all impending free agents with two wins above replacement already, and he very nearly snagged the final spot on the list.  The 31-year-old has a shot at a four-year deal if his stellar play continues.  Athletics first baseman Yonder Alonso has also put himself on the radar by changing his approach and crushing 12 home runs in 137 plate appearances.  The Rays’ Logan Morrison, also part of the 2017-18 free agent class, is right behind him with 11 bombs.

With an OBP of .291, Mike Moustakas has fallen outside the top 10 for now.  He joins honorable mentions such as Lorenzo Cain, Chris Tillman, Lance Lynn, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Santana, Marco Estrada, and Alex Cobb.  Though the 34-year-old Jason Vargas is unlikely to obtain top 10 earning power, he warrants mention for his 2.03 ERA, which entered the day ranked third in the American League.

One last name you might be wondering about is Shohei Otani, the 22-year-old Nippon Ham Fighters two-way ace.  He’ll have a late start to his season due to a thigh injury.  While Otani aims to move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the Majors for the 2018 season, and that would be a huge story on MLBTR, he’s seemingly capped at about $10MM in earning power due to a change in the new CBA.

Braves To Sign James Loney

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5:12pm: It’s a minors pact, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets.

3:46pm: The Braves have agreed to a deal with veteran free agent James Loney, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports on Twitter. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney had just reported via Twitter that a deal was close. It’s unclear at this time whether it’s a MLB deal, though that certainly seems plausible in this case.

It is hardly surprising to hear of this match. Atlanta was in sudden need of a first baseman after losing Freddie Freeman for an extended stretch. And Loney had only recently been cut loose by the Tigers organization, where he had been playing at Triple-A.

Atlanta did also just promote corner infielder Rio Ruiz, though it seems he’ll likely remain at his natural third base for the most part. Understandably, the Braves did not have a natural replacement for Freeman, a fully established hitter who had stepped up to new heights thus far in 2017. Of course, the club had inked elder statesman Ryan Howard earlier this year, but he was released after a brief and unsuccessful run at Gwinnett.

It goes without saying that Loney won’t match Freeman as a middle-of-the-order threat. Even at his best, Loney delivered value by getting on base at a solid clip and playing good defense, not by delivering significant power. The 33-year-old has bounced around in recent years, most recently slashing .265/.307/.397 over 366 plate appearances last season for the Mets — who added him under similar circumstances to those now impacting their division rivals. While he has been a regular player at times in his career, Loney was hitting just .200/.351/.222 in his 57 trips to the plate at Triple-A thus far in 2017.

Blue Jays Suspend Kevin Pillar For 2 Games

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The Blue Jays have issued a two-game suspension to center fielder Kevin Pillar, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports (links to Twitter). The 28-year-old has acknowledged and apologized for his use of a homophobic slur during an argument in last night’s game.

Toronto handed down the decision after consulting with the league and player’s association, per GM Ross Atkins. The salary that Pillar will forego will be donated in some manner. Outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. will take Pillar’s roster spot for the time being, the club announced.

The Jays had already released a statement condemning Pillar’s comments, explaining that they were not “a reflection of the type of inclusive organization we strive to be.” But the team did also say that it views Pillar as “a respectful, high-character individual” who would hopefully “learn from this situation and continue to positively contribute and live up to our values on and off the field.”

While it’s obviously unfortunate that Pillar uttered the derogatory remark, he did take full responsibility in his own statement. By using the “inappropriate language,” he said, he “helped extend the use of a word that has no place in baseball, in sports or anywhere in society today.” For that, Pillar said, he is “completely and utterly embarrassed.” The outfielder offered his apologies to Braves reliever Jason Motte (the target of the slur) as well as to “the Braves organization and their fans, and most importantly, to the LGBTQ community” for what he called “the lack of respect I displayed last night.”

Rays Acquire Michael Martinez, Place Brad Miller On Disabled List

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The Rays have acquired infielder/outfielder Michael Martinez from the Indians in exchange for cash or a player to be named later and placed fellow infielder Brad Miller on the 10-day disabled list due to a left abdominal strain. In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Martinez, Tampa Bay transferred Xavier Cedeno to the 60-day disabled list.

Martinez, 34, was designated for assignment by the Indians recently after collecting four hits and a pair of walks in 15 plate appearances this season. The versatile veteran can play all over the infield and outfield, though he batted just .238/.267/.307 last season and is a lifetime .200/.246/.270 hitter in the Majors (592 plate appearances). Miller has been the team’s primary second baseman this season, but Martinez can now step in and share time at that position with rookie Daniel Robertson.

Freddie Freeman Out Approximately 10 Weeks Due To Fractured Wrist

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2:22pm: The Braves announced that Freeman has indeed been placed on the disabled list, though their release indicates that Freeman will miss “approximately 10 weeks.” The Braves added that Ruiz has been recalled from Triple-A to replace Freeman on the roster.

1:33pm: As the Braves feared, first baseman Freddie Freeman suffered a fractured wrist in last night’s game when he was hit on the left wrist by a 94 mph fastball from Aaron Loup, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Freeman is expected to miss at least eight weeks with the injury, though Rosenthal adds that he won’t require surgery to repair the injury.

The Braves, of course, aren’t contending for a division title (their current second-place status notwithstanding), but the injury derails an MVP-caliber season for the face of the franchise in Atlanta. Freeman has posted a sensational .341/.461/.748 batting line with 14 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple through his first 164 plate appearances of the season. Dating back to Opening Day 2016, in fact, Freeman’s park-adjusted offensive performance (162 wRC+) trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 300 plate appearances.

[Related: Updated Atlanta Braves depth chart]

Looking to the Braves’ roster, it’s not clear who exactly will replace Freeman at first base. Atlanta’s bench doesn’t include any big leaguer with significant experience at the position, as the team’s four reserves are currently catcher Kurt Suzuki, infielder Johan Camargo and utilitymen Emilio Bonifacio and Danny Santana. First base options in the upper minors are scarce as well, though third base prospect Rio Ruiz worked out at first base during Spring Training, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently noted (on Twitter). Theoretically, Ruiz and fellow infielder Jace Peterson (who played first last night following Freeman’s exit) could share duties there in the short-term.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that the Braves were already discussing potential outside additions, though options aren’t exactly plentiful. The free-agent market doesn’t offer many options, either, though veterans James Loney and Ben Paulsen were released by the Tigers and Twins, respectively, earlier this month. Atlanta had Ryan Howard playing with its Triple-A affiliate on a minor league deal earlier this month, but he struggled at the dish and was also released. Fellow veteran Justin Morneau remains unsigned, but he hasn’t been playing regularly since suiting up for Team Canada in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

As far as the trade market goes, the Braves likely don’t want to part with any significant prospects to fill a relatively short-term gap in what doesn’t look to be a winning season. Speaking from a purely speculative standpoint, Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams was shopped this past offseason and still doesn’t have a clear path to regular at-bats in St. Louis. Veteran Pedro Alvarez is currently with Baltimore’s Triple-A affiliate, though he’s struggled to a .174/.265/.289 batting line thus far. There are also numerous players with MLB experience that are currently on minor league deals and performing reasonably well at Triple-A, including Ji-Man Choi (Yankees), Efren Navarro (Tigers), Matt Hague (Twins) and Christian Walker (D-backs), the latter of whom was briefly property of the Braves this offseason. Certainly, none of the names listed will generate much excitement among Braves fans, though any could picked up as a depth option at a reasonably low cost.

Nationals Notes: McCutchen, Gio, Harper, Fedde, Ross

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Last December’s Andrew McCutchen trade talks between the Nationals and Pirates included top prospect Lucas Giolito and left-hander Gio Gonzalez, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman notes that talks between Pittsburgh and Washington centered around three players, and he reported back in December that Giolito and minor league righty Dane Dunning were a part of McCutchen talks. Some combination of Giolito, Dunning and Gonzalez (whose salary is roughly similar to that of McCutchen) certainly seems like a nice haul for the Pirates, though to be fair, Heyman hasn’t specifically listed that trio in a singular report, nor is it clear that said trio was ever actually offered. Furthermore, it’s not known whether the Nationals or the Pirates are the team that backed out of talks before Washington sent Giolito, Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez to the White Sox in exchange for Adam Eaton. McCutchen is off to an ugly .214/.286/.393 start at the plate, though Giolito hasn’t fared much better in the minors. Through 34 1/3 Triple-A innings, he’s posted a 6.55 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 and a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate.

More notes on the Nats…

  • Asked about what type of money Bryce Harper will command in free agency, the GM of another club tells Heyman that he believes Harper will command closer to $500MM than $400MM on the open market. Furthermore, he stated a belief that $400MM is the “baseline” for a Harper contract in free agency. There’s been plenty of consternation among fans about whether Harper has truly lived up to the hype surrounding him in his career, though his 2015 NL MVP and .376/.491/.744 start to the 2017 campaign are undeniably strong points in his favor. Harper won’t turn 25 until the season comes to a close, and he’s already been worth 24-26 wins above replacement (depending on one’s preferred version of the metric). Whether that makes him worth an investment approaching half a billion dollars is, of course, another debate, but he certainly looks to have rounded back into form after reports of a shoulder injury that plagued him throughout a “down” season (by his standards) in 2016.
  • Nats general manager Mike Rizzo explained the team’s decision to move top prospect Erick Fedde to a bullpen role this season to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Washington felt it would have to limit Fedde’s innings this year one way or another, and keeping him in a rotation role would’ve meant shutting him down in the minors at some point. However, by moving him to the ’pen, the Nats can not only manage his innings but also take a look at the former first-rounder on the Major League roster at some point. “If he was farther away from the big leagues in our mind, we probably would just shut his innings down when they were over, and utilize that,” said Rizzo. “…We thought all along that if we were to see Fedde in the big leagues this year, it would probably be in a relief role … as the bullpen struggled and we had three guys on the disabled list at one time, we thought this was a good time to use the transformation to get him into the bullpen.”
  • Rizzo also explained to Zuckerman that the Nats consider right-hander Joe Ross “too valuable” as a starting pitcher to consider a similar shift to the bullpen. Rizzo stated that Ross’ stuff is “too good” and referred to him as a “proven starter,” though the Nationals do currently have Ross in Triple-A in an effort to improve his effectiveness against left-handed opponents. Rizzo notes that Ross is “100 percent” healthy but may have been losing his release point as he worked deeper into starts.

Jameson Taillon Undergoes Surgery For Testicular Cancer

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MAY 18: Taillon’s pathology report did indeed come back positive for testicular cancer, reports MLB.com’s Adam Berry. While there’s no timetable for his return to the mound, Taillon has been cleared to resume light baseball activities, according to Berry, which is certainly good news. Taillon has been at PNC Park with his teammates this week and has played catch in addition to participating in some light cardiovascular work. Taillon is slated to be re-examined next week.

MAY 8: Pirates righty Jameson Taillon has undergone surgery for what is suspected to be testicular cancer, according to a team announcement. MLBTR sends Taillon its very best wishes for a full and speedy recovery.

At present, the ensuing treatment plan has yet to be decided. “Further testing” will be required before a course is charted, according to the team, with updates to be announced “as appropriate.”

Needless to say, Taillon’s overall health and well-being are much more important than his playing status, but it seems reasonable to anticipate that he’ll be sidelined for at least some time. Pittsburgh had already called up Josh Lindblom to take the roster spot of Taillon, who has been placed on the 10-day DL.

The news immediately calls to mind the situation of Rockies righty Chad Bettis, another promising young starting pitcher who has battled testicular cancer. In his case, the hope was that an offseason procedure would clear the way for a full return to health both on and off the mound. Unfortunately, Bettis ultimately required chemotherapy when it was discovered that the cancer has spread. He is expected to miss most or all of the current season.

The hope remains both that Bettis will get back to full health and that Taillon’s own course will be more straightforward. In the meantime, it’s a good reminder for everyone to monitor for these and other ailments. As Bettis said upon his initial diagnosis: “This only reinforces my belief that each of us needs to be totally in tune with our own physical health, and that taking action sooner than later when we feel like something is off can sometimes literally be the difference between life and death.”

Taillon’s own statement is also well worth a full read (via his Twitter account). This challenge, like others he has faced, has “just added fuel to my burning fire,” he writes, continuing: “Today I lost a piece of my ’manhood.’ But, today I’m feeling like more o a man than I ever have.” 

Freddie Freeman Headed For MRI, CT Scan On Injured Wrist

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10:15am: Freeman would likely miss between eight and 10 weeks if today’s tests reveal a fracture, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

MAY 18, 9:44am: FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that the Braves have already begun discussing potential replacement options, including options outside the organization.

MAY 17: Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman exited Wednesday’s game against the Blue Jays after being struck by a pitch on the left wrist, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that he’s headed for an MRI and a CT scan after initial X-rays of the wrist were inconclusive (Twitter links).

Freeman was struck on the left hand by a 94 mph fastball from Jays lefty Aaron Loup (video link). A significant Freeman injury would be a nightmare for the Braves, who have already struggled to a 16-21 record despite the fact that Freeman himself has been one of the best offensive players in baseball this season. Through 164 plate appearances, Freeman has posted a ludicrous .341/.461/.748 batting line with 14 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple.

[Related: Atlanta Braves depth chart]

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that the Braves are holding out hope that they’ll receive good news, but he adds that “the mood in the clubhouse wouldn’t have been described as optimistic.” Atlanta is relatively thin on options at first base in the minors and recently released veteran Ryan Howard, who had been playing with their Gwinnett affiliate. Current reserves on the 25-man roster include Emilio Bonifacio, Danny Santana and Johan Camargo — none of whom has much experience at first base. With few options in the upper minors, the Braves could also turn to a recently released veteran such as James Loney or Ben Paulsen in the event of a lengthy Freeman absence.

Jung Ho Kang Loses Appeal Of DUI Sentencing

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A South Korean court has denied the appeal of infielder Jung Ho Kang over his sentencing in an offseason DUI charge, reports Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. According to Yoo, the Seoul Central District Court upheld a suspended eight-month prison sentence for Kang, which now jeopardizes Kang’s career with the Pirates.

Kang was charged with his third DUI in South Korea this offseason and admitted guilt, which ultimately led to an early-March sentencing of eight months in prison. However, the sentence was suspended for two years and allows Kang to avoid serving any actual jail time so long as he does not violate the terms of the suspended sentence that were set forth by the court. Kang had sought to reduce the suspended sentence to a fine, but today’s ruling quashes that hope.

The 30-year-old Kang has been on the restricted list for the Pirates all season, meaning he has not accrued any Major League service time, nor has he received any of this season’s $2.75MM salary. To this point, he’s been unable to secure a work visa after the United States Embassy rejected his initial application, per Yoo.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly said in a statement issued shortly after Kang’s sentencing that the Pirates would “continue to work with him and his representatives in an effort to secure his work visa so that he may resume his career as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates.” Coonelly’s statement also indicated that the team would have a “serious discussion with him on this issue and how he has and will change those behaviors that led to the very serious punishment” and that further comments or team-issued discipline would be withheld until the team has had a chance to speak with Kang on the matter.

The Pirates originally signed Kang to a four-year, $11MM contract after submitting a posting fee of $5,002,015 to his former club, the Korea Baseball Organization’s Nexen Heroes, in the 2014-15 offseason. Kang’s contract calls for a $2.75MM salary in 2017, $3MM in 2018 and a $5.5MM club option or $250K buyout for 2019.  It is now unclear, however, if Kang will be able to obtain a work visa to continue his playing career with the Pirates at any point throughout the duration of the upheld suspended prison sentence.

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