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Free Agency Notes: Moss, Orioles, Gee, Royals

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Free agent slugger Brandon Moss “has been linked to the Orioles,” writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 33-year-old possesses plenty of experience in the corner outfield – where general manager Dan Duquette is still looking for help even after acquiring Seth Smith on Friday – and could fit as a designated hitter in Baltimore. While re-signing Mark Trumbo would help fill those vacancies, Duquette didn’t sound optimistic about that Sunday. Moss should cost far less than Trumbo, largely because the former is coming off back-to-back mediocre seasons. As a member of the Cardinals last year, Moss swatted an impressive 28 home runs, but he nevertheless posted an unspectacular .225/.300/.484 line in 464 plate appearances. The lefty-swinger would at least add more power and variety to a mostly right-handed lineup, however.

More notes on the free agent market:

  • Right-hander Dillon Gee received medical clearance Thursday after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter links). Gee, who should be ready for spring training, has garnered interest from multiple teams, per Cotillo (the Marlins contacted him earlier this offseason). The 30-year-old has been on the open market since November, when he cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Gee spent 2016 in Kansas City, where he recorded a 4.68 ERA, 6.41 K/9 and 2.66 BB/9 in 125 innings and 33 appearances (14 starts).
  • Speaking of the Royals, the budget-conscious club will continue to monitor the market for potential bargains as the spring approaches, GM Dayton Moore told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “When the music stops, there’s always going to be a few guys without chairs,” Moore said. “And unfortunately, for those players, the options dwindle. For the clubs that stay aggressive and keep their pulse on everything, you can get some potential deals.” The Royals spent on several free agents – including Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy and Joakim Soria – over the previous couple winters, but they’ve taken a much less aggressive approach this offseason. So far, backup catcher Drew Butera is the only free agent Kansas City has given a major league deal.

NL Notes: CarGo, Phillies, Stearns, Brewers, Ross

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The Rockies still want to extend Carlos Gonzalez’s contract, GM Jeff Bridich tells ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden.  The two sides “are still far apart on a deal but they’re working on it,” Bowden writes, and Gonzalez is also believed to have interest in staying in Colorado.  This isn’t the first time we’ve heard rumblings about an extension between Gonzalez and the Rockies this winter, though as of last month, the club hadn’t yet extended a formal offer.  Here’s more from around the National League…

  • In an interview with Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), Phillies president Andy MacPhail said his team’s next move is to try and add a left-handed hitter.  The Phils are known to be looking for another bat, with such lefty swingers as Brandon Moss, Michael Saunders and Jay Bruce mentioned as potential candidates.
  • The Brewers are still looking for relief pitching, GM David Stearns tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, exploring trade opportunities and both major league or minor league signings.  When asked if Milwaukee was favoring trades over signings (or vice versa), Stearns said “I don’t know that we have a firm preference. We have to explore all avenues.”  Stearns also noted that the Brewers are “active on a number of fronts” in regards to adding position players, though he also felt generally comfortable with the team’s pre-existing mix of everyday players and relievers.
  • Recent reports have cited the Nationals as one of the teams in pursuit of Tyson Ross, and they may have a recruiter on hand in Joe Ross, Tyson’s younger brother.  “I’ve been trying to get him over here,” Joe tells Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post, joking that Tyson “can come here as long as he doesn’t take my job.”  As Castillo notes, the younger Ross doesn’t appear to be in any danger of losing his rotation job following two solid seasons in the bigs, and Ross said he is feeling healthy after missing time last year due to shoulder soreness.

Dan Duquette On Trumbo, Hammel, Bautista

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Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette joined Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM to discuss his team’s offseason plans.  Here’s a partial audio link to the interview, as well as other details from Jim Duquette’s Twitter account (links here).  Highlights included…

  • Duquette hinted that the Orioles could be moving on from Mark Trumbo, saying “we like some of the other options, some of the shorter-term options on the market that look to be a little bit more cost-effective for the club.”  Since Trumbo rejected a qualifying offer, the O’s will receive a first round draft pick if Trumbo signs elsewhere, which is no small consideration for the Orioles given how the qualifying offer system has been altered for future seasons.  “The value of that draft pick has been enhanced with the negotiations of the new basic agreement,” Duquette said.  “In other words, that’s about the last time you can acquire that level of pick for a compensation free agent.”
  • The Orioles still are looking for outfield help as well as pitching depth in the form of “another veteran pitcher.”  Duquette didn’t rule out a reunion with Jason Hammel, noting that the O’s liked Hammel and how he performed for Baltimore in the 2012-13 seasons.  The Rangers, Yankees, Mariners and Marlins have all been linked to Hammel at different points this offseason.
  • Earlier this winter, Duquette commented that Jose Bautista wasn’t an Orioles target due to the long-time Blue Jays slugger’s unpopularity amongst Baltimore fans.  Duquette clarified those comments today and while he feels his words “kind of got blown out of proportion,” he didn’t walk them back.  “I was trying to make it clear to [Bautista’s] agent that I didn’t want the Orioles in that conversation because I didn’t want the fans being upset that we were out there trying to bring Jose Bautista here after we’d competed against him…for the last 6-7 years,” Duquette said.  In my view, this is an unusual public stance for an executive to take, especially since Bautista (as a veteran slugger who could be available at something of a discount price) fits the model of past late-winter Duquette signings.

NL West Notes: Turner, Rockies, Melancon, Jenkins

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How intent was Justin Turner on re-signing with the Dodgers?  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required), Turner didn’t clean out his locker at the end of the season and continued to go through his winter workouts at Dodger Stadium.  There was very little buzz on the rumor mill linking Turner to any club besides Los Angeles, and sure enough, the two sides continued their relationship when Turner inked a four-year, $64MM deal.  Here’s more from around the National League West…

  • The Rockies could still add a reliever this winter but their big transactions could already be over, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding opines (Twitter link).  Since the Ian Desmond signing, Colorado has been rumored to be exploring such moves as signing Mark Trumbo and trading an outfielder, though Harding doesn’t see either scenario happening.
  • The specifics of Mark Melancon’s $20MM signing bonus with the Giants were broken down by FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link) earlier this week.  The closer received $6MM on December 30 and will get another $6MM payment on January 15.  The remaining $8MM will be deferred until after Melancon’s four-year deal is up; he will be paid $1MM every January 15 from 2021 through 2028.
  • Thanks to a trade and two waiver claims, right-hander Tyrell Jenkins has been a member of four different organizations within the last month, a tumultuous stretch for any player, let alone a 24-year-old entering his second MLB season.  Jenkins spoke to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about his busy winter, including how he was already feeling some hometown pressure during his brief stint with the Rangers (Jenkins hails from Henderson, Texas) and how his latest move (being claimed by the Padres) caught Jenkins by surprise, though he’s looking forward to getting an opportunity in San Diego.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his third and final year of arbitration this winter with a hefty $10.7MM base salary following his 2015 Cy Young Award season. While his 2016 campaign was less stellar, Arrieta still posted a very respectable 3.10 ERA in 197.1 innings, along with an 18-8 record and 190 strikeouts. As a result, my model projects him to get a $6.1MM raise and earn $16.8MM for 2017.

Finding comparable pitchers to Arrieta’s platform season is tricky. His $6.1MM raise would be the second-highest ever for a third-year eligible starting pitcher — Max Scherzer got an $8.8MM raise after his Cy Young Award-winning season three years ago. Scherzer’s 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 innings and 240 strikeouts (plus the Cy Young Award itself) combine to put an obvious ceiling above Arrieta. There is no way Arrieta is going to get anywhere near Scherzer’s $8.8MM raise, but where the Cubs ace falls below that number is difficult to discern.

Aside from Scherzer, the next highest raise in this service class (excluding the anomalous and stale case of Carlos Zambrano in 2007) belongs to Jeff Samardzija, who got a $4.46MM raise in 2015.  Samardzija posted just a 7-13 record that season, but with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings to go along with 202 strikeouts. While Arrieta’s 2016 season fell twenty innings short of Samardzija’s 2014, Arrieta’s 11 extra wins suggest he should easily top Samardzija’s raise.

Doug Fister in the 2014-15 offseason could be an interesting comparable because his win total is more applicable to Arrieta’s case. Fister received a $4.2MM raise after winning 16 games in 2014.  Fister’s 2.41 ERA bested Arrieta’s mark from this past season, though Arrieta significantly outpaced Fister in innings (197.1 to 164) and strikeouts (190 to 98).  Alfredo Simon got a $4.05MM raise that same year with 15 wins and 196.1 innings, but his 3.44 ERA is less impressive than Arrieta’s, and his 127 strikeouts are far weaker too.

One plausible comparable could be Justin Masterson, who got a $4.07MM raise after a strong 2013 campaign — 14-10 record, 3.45 ERA, and 195 strikeouts in 193 IP.  While the innings and strikeouts are a reasonable comparison, the record and ERA are clearly a step behind Arrieta.

Overall, we see a very obvious ceiling at $8.8MM with Scherzer way above Arrieta, and a series of pitchers in the low $4MM-raise range that clearly represent a floor. Where Arrieta lands is a mystery, but it would surprise me if he achieved the $6.1MM raise as projected by the model. I think a $5MM raise makes a lot of sense based on these comparables, and maybe $5.5MM since he clearly has a much better case than all of the $4MM-raise pitchers, though $6.1 million seems a little too high. Look for Arrieta to land somewhere closer to $16MM in 2017 than the nearly $17MM the model expects.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the MLBTR staff’s original content from the first week of 2017…

  • Contributor Matt Swartz began his “Arbitration Breakdown” series, exploring some of this winter’s more interesting arb cases.  Manny Machado (link) and Addison Reed (link) both received solo spotlights, while Swartz also examined groupings of players with similar arbitration projections — Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer (link), Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez (link) and the starting pitching quartet of Gerrit Cole, Mike Fiers, Collin McHugh and Jake Odorizzi.
  • Speaking of Todd Frazier, the third baseman’s name has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate since the White Sox are in a rebuilding mode.  Jeff Todd broke down the market to see which teams could have a need for Frazier at the hot corner.
  • With a number of big names still on the open market, Jeff and Charlie Wilmoth looked at notable January free agent signings from the last six years.
  • Chris Carter and Neftali Feliz are two of the more notable players available in free agency.  Connor Byrne looked at Carter’s free agent profile, while Charlie did the same for Feliz.
  • Connor analyzed how much each division has thus far spent to sign players on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents available this offseason, with the NL West far and away leading the pack
  • With the Tigers known to be looking for affordable center field help, Steve Adams looked at some of the potential free agent names that could fit in the Motor City.
  • Over 65% of MLBTR readers polled by Connor believe the Astros still need to add another top-of-the-rotation arm to be serious contenders in 2017.
  • In another poll from Connor, Greg Holland was the overwhelming choice as the best reliever still on the open market, with the former Royals closer collecting over 53.5% of the vote.
  • The “3 Remaining Needs” series took a division-by-division look at what each team still has to address before Opening Day.  Jeff, Connor and Charlie respectively covered the AL West, AL Central and NL Central.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.

Manny Machado

Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.

Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.

With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.

Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.

It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox Sign Everth Cabrera To Minor League Deal

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Shortstop/second baseman Everth Cabrera hasn’t taken a major league at-bat since 2015, but that could change this year. Cabrera has signed a minor league contract with the White Sox, he announced earlier this week (via La Prensa in Nicaragua). The deal includes a non-roster invitation to big league camp.

Before agreeing to join the White Sox, Cabrera hadn’t been involved in a transaction with a major league team since the Giants added him on a minors pact in July 2015. That came after both the Padres and Orioles cut Cabrera, who hit a paltry .208/.250/.229 in 105 plate appearances with Baltimore in his latest big league action.

Cabrera was a legitimately useful player at times in San Diego, where he led the National League with 44 stolen bases in 2012 despite only playing in 115 games. The switch-hitter then made the All-Star team in 2013 and posted a .283/.355/.381 line and 37 steals in 435 PAs; however, MLB hit Cabrera with a 50-game performance-enhancing drugs suspension that August stemming from his ties to the Biogenesis scandal.

Cabrera, who turned 30 in November, has been playing in his native Nicaragua. When he returns to the States, he’ll join a rebuilding Chicago club in need of middle infield depth, though that could change if star second base prospect Yoan Moncada becomes a full-time big leaguer in 2017. For now, the Sox’s projected shorstop-second base combo consists of Tim Anderson and Brett Lawrie. Reserve Tyler Saladino is coming off a respectable year, but fellow backup Carlos Sanchez has been woeful offensively since debuting in 2014.

Poll: Do Astros Need To Acquire Front-End Starter?

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As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.

Jose Quintana

The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.

“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.

Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.

“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.

While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.

The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.

In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Tigers, Yanks, Jays, Cards, Bucs, Prospects, HOF

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This week in baseball blogs:

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