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2017-18 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Red Sox are looking to add pieces for not just another trip to the postseason, but a deep march into October under new manager Alex Cora.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Price, SP: $157MM through 2022 (can opt out after 2018)
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $56MM through 2021
  • Rick Porcello, SP: $42MM through 2019
  • Rusney Castillo, OF: $35.5MM through 2020 (can opt out after 2019)
  • Hanley Ramirez, 1B/DH: $22MM through 2018 ($22MM option for 2019 vests if Ramirez makes 497 plate appearances in 2018 and passes a physical after the season)
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $13MM through 2018
  • Chris Sale, SP: $12.5MM through 2018 ($15MM club option for 2019 with $1MM buyout)

Obligations To Former Players

  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $41MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salaries earned by Sandoval in that span

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Boston Red Sox offseason page | Boston Red Sox payroll information

John Farrell’s job security was a topic of speculation basically from the moment Dave Dombrowski was hired as the Red Sox president of baseball operations in August 2015.  Despite division titles in each of the last two years, Boston’s early exits in the ALDS finally sealed Farrell’s fate, paving the way for Cora’s hiring.  The former Astros bench coach is an intriguing hire, bringing both an appreciation for analytics and a wealth of in-game experience from his 11-year playing career.  Cora only has one year of MLB coaching duty under his belt, though he received interest in past managerial openings even before his stint in Houston.

A fresh voice in the dugout may be what is required for a Red Sox team that, despite the AL East title, seemed to almost take a step backwards in 2017 thanks to an inconsistent offense and some ongoing injury problems that will extend into the 2018 season.  Dombrowski’s first two offseasons in Boston largely consisted of a few blockbuster moves (i.e. the David Price signing, the trades for Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel) seen as final touch-type of acquisitions for a team that already has so much core talent in place.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sox make another headline-grabbing transaction to address weak spots on the roster.

Some type of infield depth would seem to be a need given that Dustin Pedroia will be out of action until at least late May or early June due to knee surgery.  Some combination of Marco Hernandez, Deven Marrero, Tzu-Wei Lin, and (if he returns) Brock Holt could fill in until Pedroia is ready, though relying on internal options for a third of the season is risky, not to mention the fact that Pedroia may not be 100 percent when he does return.

A reunion with Eduardo Nunez could be an answer to this problem, as Nunez could play second base until Pedroia is back, and then shift into a utility role.  Nunez is going to be in high demand this offseason with teams that could offer him everyday playing time, however, as Nunez doesn’t have much of a path to regular at-bats in Boston with Pedroia (eventually), Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. all locked into regular duty around the diamond.

Of course, that assumes that the Sox wouldn’t trade from that core to address another need.  Bradley has often been cited as the most expendable member of Boston’s starting outfield, and with Benintendi capable of shifting over to handle center field, Bradley could be dealt for a heavy-hitting first baseman or left fielder.

Power is a clear priority for the Red Sox this winter, coming off a year that saw Boston hit fewer homers than all but three other teams in baseball.  A full season for Devers will help in this department, as will Betts and Bogaerts recovering from nagging thumb and wrist injuries, though the simplest solution might be to just add a big bopper in free agency or via trade.

Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana will get some attention from the Red Sox this winter in the free agent first base market, plus possible trade candidates like Jose Abreu also figure to be on the radar.  If the Sox don’t want to make quite that big a splash, Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso stand out as second-tier options.

Since prospect Sam Travis is still in the picture and Hanley Ramirez could see more action at first after undergoing shoulder surgery, the Sox could look for a first baseman on a shorter-term deal, akin to their signing of Mitch Moreland last offseason.  That said, Boston figures to be looking for more than a band-aid solution at first base.  Ramirez may be close to being a full-time DH at this point in his career, and Travis only had a so-so 2017 after missing much of 2016 due to knee surgery.

One creative answer would be to sign Alex Avila — a left-handed hitting catcher who has some first base experience.  Avila could then spell both Travis/Ramirez at first, and also Christian Vazquez behind the plate.  Vazquez brings outstanding defense and he took a notable step forward at the plate in 2017, but is still a below-average hitter overall.  Adding Avila into a timeshare situation at multiple positions would allow the Red Sox to boost their lineup while still retaining Vazquez as an important regular.  Such a move would necessitate letting Sandy Leon go, though he regressed badly after his seeming breakout in the 2016 season.

If a Bradley trade scenario happens, that opens up left field and the possibility of J.D. Martinez in Boston.  Martinez is the top free agent bat available this offseason and he has past ties to Dombrowski from their days together with the Tigers.  The trade market also holds out some potential for adding power to the corner outfield, with Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins among the possibilities.  It isn’t clear if Stanton would waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to Boston, though the Red Sox are one of the few teams with the financial means to absorb the $295MM owed to Stanton through 2027.  (There’s also a chance Boston’s hypothetical commitment wouldn’t last that long, as Stanton can opt out of his deal after the 2020 season.)  A Stanton/Red Sox trade could also see the Marlins take on a big Sox salary or two in return to help offset Stanton’s cost — this could be a way for the Red Sox to get Rusney Castillo’s contract off the books, for instance — though Miami’s goal seems to be to shed as much salary as possible.

Dangling Bradley in a trade would not just clear space, of course.  Trading a player of his ability wouldn’t be undertaken lightly, even if it was done to make way for a new star. The market would likely pay quite a bit for Bradley even after a down 2017 season, which might allow the Sox to recoup prospect assets and/or address other needs on the roster.

Adding another big salary would push the Sox back over the luxury tax threshold, though as Dombrowski bluntly stated to reporters, this doesn’t appear to be a big concern.  Avoiding the tax might’ve been unavoidable anyway (as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently observed) given the team’s needs.  This will have the effect of limiting what the Red Sox could potentially do next offseason when multiple superstars hit the free agent market, though it could be argued that the Sox now have the opportunity to more aggressively shop for talent this winter if other big-market teams are curbing their spending in preparation for next winter.

On the pitching side, the Sox bullpen was quietly a major strength for the team last year, and should continue to be a plus even if Addison Reed, Fernando Abad, and Blaine Boyer all leave in free agency.  (The club has already parted ways with Robbie Ross after his injury-plagued year.)  These departures could be filled from within if Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are finally healthy, plus youngsters Austin Maddox or Williams Jerez could be ready for some steady big league exposure.

Dombrowski has made a point of trading for relievers in his first two offseasons in Boston, so a new bullpen arm may be more likely to come via the trade market than free agency.  Then again, with the major exception of the Kimbrel deal, the Sox haven’t gotten much return on those reliever trades, so Dombrowski could switch tactics and look to the open market for upgrades.  The precise approach may depend upon how Boston ends up addressing the primary needs discussed above. Expect a focus on southpaws, as the pen is short on proven left-handed relievers.

The rotation could potentially also be an area of need, depending on how some injury situations progress during the spring.  David Price is hoping to be finally past the elbow problems limited him to just 74 2/3 IP last season, Steven Wright is returning from knee surgery that cost him almost all of 2017, and Eduardo Rodriguez will already be sidelined for until May or even June as he recovers from his own knee surgery.  Assuming Price and Wright are both fully recovered, the Red Sox face a possible “good problem to have” starter surplus when Rodriguez gets back.

If more health uncertainty develops during the offseason or in Spring Training, however, the Sox will check in on veteran starters for depth.  Unless a longer-term injury crops up, the team isn’t likely to pursue anything beyond innings-eating veteran options.  Dombrowski mentioned last winter how he had a tough time attracting pitchers due to the number of other starting options already on Boston’s roster, and, barring a trade, the same is true of the 2018 staff.

There is no shortage of potential moves, big or small, that could fit for the Red Sox this offseason, and Dombrowski has certainly shown his willingness to make some bold transactions.  It could be that Cora and a healthier lineup are the real “final pieces” the Sox need to challenge for a World Series next year, though it seems likely that one more star name will find his way to Fenway Park before Opening Day.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A World Series hangover led to a surprising 43-45 record from the Cubs in the first half of the season.  The club rallied to 49-25 in the second half and just barely pulled off an NLDS win over the Nationals.  The Dodgers then dispatched the Cubs fairly easily in the NLCS, marking Chicago’s third straight appearance in the second round of the playoffs.  The Cubs are poised for an active winter, with an outfield logjam and major needs in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $147.5MM through 2023.  Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
  • Jon Lester, SP: $85MM through 2020.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout.  2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
  • Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF: $28MM through 2019.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $21MM through 2019.  Includes $16.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021.  2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes.  Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $9.85MM through 2018.  Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and an identical club option for 2020.
  • Pedro Strop, RP: $6.35MM through 2018.  Includes $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout for 2019.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]

The Cubs swung a huge, surprising trade with their crosstown rivals in July, sending four prospects to the White Sox for lefty starter Jose Quintana.  Since the Cubs control Quintana through 2020, this deal was as much about the future as the present.  Quintana adds innings and stability to a rotation that also includes Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.  Lester and Hendricks are controlled through 2020 as well.  Jake Arrieta and John Lackey combined for 60 regular season starts for the Cubs this year, and both are now free agents.  Quintana helped prepare for the possible departure of Arrieta, but the Cubs still need to replace 40% of their rotation.

Oct 18, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta removes his cap as he is relieved in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game four of the 2017 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports

Signing Arrieta is certainly an option.  The righty, 32 in March, famously resurrected his career after a 2013 trade to the Cubs.  Back in March, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that “the belief is that [the Cubs] wouldn’t go more than four years [on a new contract for Arrieta], if that.”  Around that time, the idea was floated by Arrieta and his agent Scott Boras that a six or seven-year deal would be appropriate.  Even then I found five years much more likely.  Arrieta went on to post a decent season, but we’ve perhaps become the low man on him, projecting a four-year contract.  If we’re right, then maybe the Cubs and Arrieta can match up after all.  However, I wouldn’t expect Arrieta to sign a four-year deal in November or December.  Given where Boras was at earlier this year, four years seems possible only if Arrieta’s market disappoints, and he signs in January or February.  The Cubs may not be able to keep enough powder dry into the new year to pay Arrieta $25MM a year, even if the term comes down to four years.

Free agency offers an alternative in Yu Darvish.  Darvish is only 163 days younger than Arrieta, and he has Tommy John surgery on his résumé.  We’re projecting a six-year, $160MM deal for Darvish, a contract similar to the one the Cubs gave Lester three years ago.  I think the Cubs could look past Darvish’s pair of World Series bombs, but president Theo Epstein was noncommittal, saying regarding high-priced free agent pitching, “I wouldn’t rule it out completely, and I wouldn’t rule it in. I would just say it’s not our preferred method.”  Of course, paying baseball players $25MM+ per year is not the preferred method of any team.  Would the Cubs prefer the devil they know with Arrieta, or would they prefer a megadeal for Darvish?

Quite possibly, it’s neither.  The Cubs seem likely to pursue one front-rotation arm and one lesser starting pitcher, and they are expected to explore the trade market.  The only established top of the rotation starting pitcher who projects to be available this winter is Chris Archer of the Rays.  Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry deftly acquired Archer from the Indians in the 2008 Mark DeRosa trade, only to ship him to Tampa Bay two years later in the Matt Garza deal.  Archer, 29, has made 32 starts in each of the last four seasons, displaying a dominant strikeout rate and earning two All-Star nods in that time.  The hard-throwing righty is on a team-friendly contract through 2021, so the Rays have no reason to force a trade this offseason.  The Cubs already spent their best remaining prospects in the Quintana deal, and would have to subtract from the Major League roster to have a shot at Archer.  It remains to be seen how willing the Cubs are to deal from their starting middle infield to acquire someone like Archer, which would lead to a defensive downgrade at second base for Chicago with some combination of Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist.

From the Rays’ point of view, would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be enough to lead a package for Archer?  Both players have four years of control remaining, same as Archer, and Russell is already eligible for arbitration.  The Rays might prefer a headliner with six years of control remaining, like Yoan Moncada in the Chris Sale trade.  Russell took a step backward in performance this year, also facing a divorce and a domestic abuse allegation.  Baez seems the more valuable asset, a player with star potential if he can rein in some of the swing-and-miss.  However, the Rays already have Willy Adames, a shortstop who is big league ready and is rated #15 among all prospects by MLB.com.  Russell or Baez might not be enough, and might not be the right fit for the Rays either.  The Cubs have run out of Top 100 prospects to deal, but could complement a trade with 50-grade prospects, including a few with big league experience in Victor Caratini and Mark Zagunis.  While some kind of position player for pitcher swap between the Cubs and Rays has been discussed by fans and executives for years, the Cubs will face stiff competition from other teams if the Rays listen on Archer.

The Cubs also have left fielder Kyle Schwarber as a primary trade chip, whether for a mid-level starting pitcher or a reliever.  Schwarber, 25 in March, is a player the Cubs have always liked more than most since they drafted him fourth overall in 2014.  Finally given a full season in the Majors after last year’s ACL tear, Schwarber was used as a platoon bat after a rough April, and even his big league success after a June Triple-A demotion (131 wRC+) has to take into account that he only faced southpaws 16.4% of the time.  With donning catching gear seemingly in the rearview for Schwarber, the pessimistic view is that he’s a platoon bat without a position.  Certainly, to trade Schwarber now would be selling low, though opening up left field for Happ full-time would alleviate the logjam and may improve the outfield defense.  Schwarber would be a better fit in the American League, where he could learn first base and spend time at designated hitter.  Danny Salazar, Kendall Graveman, Matt Andriese, Collin McHugh, and Jake Odorizzi are a few speculative trade targets.  These names are not nearly as exciting as they would have been a year ago had the Cubs shopped Schwarber.  The Cubs may well set a price on Schwarber higher than Odorizzi or McHugh, who are only under control for two more years.

The Cubs could also consider putting their faith in Schwarber and trading Happ, who they drafted ninth overall in 2015.  The 23-year-old switch-hitter would be a very valuable trade chip after a promising rookie debut; he’s still under team control for six more years.  The Cubs have yet to settle on a position for Happ, who appeared at all three outfield positions as well as second base in 2017.  He seems less likely to be moved than Schwarber.  Albert Almora Jr. also seems unlikely to be traded.  While Epstein won’t quite pencil Almora in as next year’s starting center fielder, he has at least pledged an increased role.

Free agency offers the Cubs a slew of mid-level or worse options if they don’t want to pony up for Darvish.  Alex Cobb is a name to consider, especially since he played under Cubs manager Joe Maddon and his new pitching coach, Jim Hickey.  The Cubs are also intimately familiar with Lance Lynn, who started against them 18 times in his career as a member of the Cardinals.  Last year, the Cubs made a run at Tyson Ross before settling for Brett Anderson as their fifth starter, and they could look to fill out the fifth starter spot again with a one-year bounceback guy like Chris Tillman, Clay Buchholz, or Jeremy Hellickson.

The ideal candidate for the Cubs’ rotation, of course, is 23-year-old righty Shohei Otani.  If MLB, the players’ union, Nippon Professional Baseball, and the Nippon Ham Fighters are able to reach an agreement, Otani may make the leap to MLB despite being subject to international bonus pool restrictions.  While Cubs fans are surely dreaming of Otani pitching every fifth day and patrolling the Wrigley outfield on some of his off days, the Cubs are one of a dozen teams capped at $300K in the potential bidding.  Many other teams are able to bid more than ten times as much (the theoretical maximum is about $10MM), although Otani would be leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table either way.  Like every team, the Cubs will have to do a hell of a marketing job to win Otani’s heart if he’s posted, and they can’t build their offseason around him to any degree.

The Cubs will surely cast a wide net for starting pitching, but they also have ample work to do on their bullpen.  By the end of the postseason, it seemed that Maddon only trusted closer Wade Davis.  The Cubs may make a run at Davis, which would involve holding their noses and giving him a four-year deal.  Having shown no interest in past free agent closers such as Kenley Jansen and David Robertson, I’m guessing this is again not Epstein’s “preferred method.”  Rather than give Davis or Greg Holland $15MM a year, the Cubs could get two very good relievers for a similar price, in a free agent market featuring Addison Reed, Mike Minor, Brandon Morrow, Jake McGee, and other quality names.  If the Cubs hit the trade market for a late inning reliever, they could pursue Alex Colome, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances, Joakim Soria, or Kelvin Herrera.  Aside from Davis, the Cubs could also consider retaining free agent lefty Brian Duensing, who had a resurgent year for them on a $2MM contract and will be seeking a raise.

The holdovers in the Cubs’ bullpen include righties Carl Edwards Jr. and Pedro Strop and lefties Mike Montgomery and Justin Wilson.  The Cubs have Hector Rondon and his projected $6.2MM salary as well, but he’s fallen far enough out of favor that I expect them to move him in a salary dump trade.  Justin Grimm, with a $2.4MM projection, could also get the boot.  Like Quintana, Wilson was acquired in a summer trade with a partial eye on the future.  The 30-year-old southpaw has a $4.3MM salary projection, and was expected to play a key role in the Cubs’ 2018 bullpen at the time of his acquisition.  Wilson was hammered in 17 2/3 innings with the Cubs, allowing 38 baserunners in that span with horrible control.  The Cubs will try to get him back into form, but can hardly count on him.  This bullpen probably needs three or more outside additions this winter.

On the position player side, the Cubs’ needs are minimal.  A veteran backup catcher behind Willson Contreras would be helpful, filling the shoes of free agent Alex Avila.  The Cubs already have 24-year-old Victor Caratini as an option for that role, though some teams prefer a veteran presence.  Outfielder Jon Jay is also a free agent.  If Schwarber is dealt, the Cubs can still fill out their outfield with Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, and Ben Zobrist.  Since Happ and Zobrist will likely play some second base, a veteran backup outfielder could be added to replace Jay.

How much can the Cubs spend to fill these needs?  Assuming Rondon and Grimm are gone, the Cubs will be paying about $106MM to 18 players, eight of whom are pre-arbitration.  The Cubs’ biggest pain points are Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, a pair that provided 1.2 wins above replacement in 2017 and will be paid $37.5MM in 2018.  There is little to be done with those two, who both have full no-trade protection for 2018 and negative trade value anyway.  Heyward and Zobrist were generally treated as starting players this year, and both should enter 2018 with reduced playing time expectations.  The Cubs seem capable of a $180MM payroll, and despite the large salaries of Jon Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist, might be able to spend as much as $70MM on new 2018 player salaries.

The Cubs remain an immensely talented team.  They’ve got affordable star position players in Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras, none of whom will earn a $10MM salary in 2018.  That core is complemented by some combination of Baez, Russell, Happ, Almora, and Schwarber, depending on who is traded this winter.  While the rotation needs serious work, Hendricks proved his 2016 season was no fluke, Lester continues to provide value, and Quintana is a younger, cheaper version of Lester.  Still, there is significant work to be done this winter, much more than last winter.  “We knew that the 2017-2018 offseason would be one of our most challenging,” Epstein told reporters in an October press conference.  For the first time under Epstein, the Cubs enter an offseason with both significant holes to fill and sky-high expectations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

MLB: World Series-Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

On the heels of their seven-game World Series triumph over the Dodgers, the Astros have finally entered an offseason with the rest of Major League Baseball aspiring to surpass them. It took until the 55th year of the franchise’s existence to win a championship, but the team and its fans might not have to wait much longer to celebrate another title.

Thanks largely to general manager Jeff Luhnow, whom Houston hired in December 2011 and who executed an arduous rebuilding effort to perfection, the Astros have the makings of a club that will contend for more World Series in the near future. And while professional sports teams that win titles often see key players defect in free agency in the ensuing offseason, the Astros are in the luxurious position of having all of their top contributors under control for at least another year. Luhnow won’t face much pressure to make improvements this winter, then, but he’ll nonetheless look to upgrade a roster that finished the regular season with the American’s League’s second-best record (101-61) and third-ranked run differential (plus-196).

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information]

As you’d expect, not much went haywire for the Astros during a successful postseason run that saw them upend the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. One glaring exception was their bullpen, whose struggles forced manager A.J. Hinch into some unconventional maneuverings this fall. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove offered elite-caliber production across a combined 172 1/3 innings during the regular campaign, but they were anything but reliable in the postseason. As a result, Hinch turned to three members of his regular-season rotation – Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock (who functioned solely as a reliever in the playoffs) and Charlie Morton – for multi-inning, win-preserving appearances during the Astros’ series against the Yankees and Dodgers.

Although Giles was one of baseball’s premier closers in 2017, he was dreadful on the sport’s biggest stage, and his Game 4 blowup against LA went down as the last time he took the mound this year. While Giles’ track record indicates he should remain the club’s closer in 2018, it’s worth noting that the Astros zeroed in on a couple other established late-game options – the Orioles’ Zach Britton and then-Tiger Justin Wilson – in advance of this past summer’s trade deadline. The fact that Houston tried to significantly fortify its bullpen even before Giles’ issues cropped up suggests its relief corps may be an area of focus this offseason. MLBTR colleagues Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Jeff Todd and Jason Martinez expect that to be the case, evidenced by their prediction that the Astros will sign free agent closer Wade Davis to a four-year, $60MM contract.

Davis is one of many proven relievers the Astros might go after in free agency (Greg Holland and Addison Reed are other high-end possibilities), or they could subtract from their rich farm system to make a splash on the trade market by landing someone like Britton (he’s likely to stay put, however), Brad Hand (Padres) or Raisel Iglesias (Reds). Britton, Hand or a free agent such as Jake McGee or Mike Minor would give the Astros a southpaw reliever who’s capable of handling both lefty- and righty-swingers, which is something they currently lack. The Astros’ lone left-handed reliever is Tony Sipp, who has been a bust during his two-year tenure with the club and wasn’t even on its playoff roster. The only lefty in the Astros’ bullpen during the postseason was longtime starter Francisco Liriano, a July trade pickup who made five playoff appearances and is now headed for free agency.

Luke Gregerson and late-season addition Tyler Clippard are the other two 2017 Astros relievers without contracts. Gregerson was third among Astros bullpen options in innings in 2017 (61), but his regular-season output was uncharacteristically mediocre and he was barely a factor in the playoffs (3 2/3 frames). Clippard, meanwhile, failed to pitch his way into Houston’s postseason plans after coming over in an August deal with the White Sox.

Liriano, Gregerson and Clippard may be on the way out, but the Astros still have Giles, Devenski, Musgrove, Will Harris, James Hoyt and Sipp (barring a release or trade) as locks or strong bets for their bullpen next year. Like most of those hurlers, Michael Feliz and Francis Martes had substantial relief roles in 2017. Feliz was somewhat of a disappointment, though, and Martes figures to open 2018 in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation.

Given his experience as a reliever, Peacock may return to the bullpen if the Astros don’t trade Collin McHugh, who has worked exclusively as a starter during his four-year tenure with the club and may slot in behind Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, McCullers and Morton at the outset of next season. Alternatively, the Astros could shift Peacock to the bullpen, trade McHugh, jettison Mike Fiers and use a large portion of their available payroll space on one of the two front-end starters on the open market. Yu Darvish, whom the Astros tormented in the World Series, and Jake Arrieta will easily collect the largest deals among starters this year. The Astros don’t need either of those two, though the idea of adding one of them to an already strong rotation is enticing. Plus, as good as Houston’s starters look on paper, Keuchel, McCullers and Morton have each had their share of injury issues during their careers, and Morton is only under contract for another season.

No matter which pitchers comprise the Astros’ staff in 2018, their hurlers will again have the benefit of working with a group of all-world position players. The foundational trio of AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve, World Series MVP George Springer and Carlos Correa will be back, as will a supporting cast that consists of budding star Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. That group of nine did nearly all of the damage for an Astros offense that laid waste to the opposition in 2017, topping the majors in position player fWAR (33.0), runs (896), wRC+ (121) and strikeout rate (17.3 percent).

The sole regular who was a weak link for the Astros was potential Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, who was among the worst designated hitters in the league during a season in which he raked in a pricey $16MM. While Beltran didn’t live up to his deal from a statistical standpoint, Astros management, coaches and players would likely argue that the revered 40-year-old justified the pact behind the scenes. Either way, the impending free agent’s second tenure with the Astros is probably over. As such, finding a new DH figures to be on the agenda for the Astros, whose free agent targets could include two-way Japanese sensation Shohei Otani (who would also beef up Houston’s rotation), Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Carlos Gonzalez and Lucas Duda, to name several. Any of those six would add a lefty-capable bat to a lineup whose only left-handed regulars are Reddick, McCann and the switch-hitting Gonzalez. Santana, in particular, would give the Astros yet another hard-to-strike out offensive weapon.

As for Marwin Gonzalez, it’s unclear whether he’ll be the Astros’ regular left fielder, which he was in the playoffs, or revert to a super-utility role next year. It’s also up in the air just what Houston will get from Gonzalez, whose .303/.377/.530 line in 515 regular-season PAs may not be a harbinger of what’s to come. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Gonzalez’s actual weighted on-base average (.387) far outdid his expected wOBA (.320), which suggests that his career season was largely the product of good batted-ball fortune. If the Astros agree with that, and if they allow August acquisition Cameron Maybin to leave in free agency, it could put them in the market for outfield help (though free agency won’t offer many clear solutions).

If Luhnow is in an especially bold mood, he could try to swing a trade for on-the-block Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who would make the Astros’ offense all the more video game-like. Granted, the $295MM remaining on Stanton’s contract through 2028 – not to mention his right to opt out of the deal after 2020 – may render that idea wholly unrealistic. Teammates Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich would be more pragmatic possibilities for the Astros, but the Marlins reportedly aren’t looking to part with either. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, with a year and $14.5MM left on his contract, seems like a more practical target. The 31-year-old would be a solid stopgap for a Houston club with two touted young outfielders, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher, waiting in the wings.

After constructing a championship-winning roster in 2017, Luhnow could make any number of headline-grabbing transactions this offseason to better the Astros’ chances of repeating next year. However, considering the overwhelming amount of talent in the fold and the paucity of integral free agents set to leave Houston, no one would blame Luhnow for taking a modest approach this winter. In the end, his most important moves may come in the form of extensions for core players such as Altuve, Springer and Keuchel, who each have three or fewer years of team control remaining.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The 2017 season was borderline disastrous for the Rangers, who fell from a 95-67 record in 2016 to a 78-84 mark and a third place finish in the division. Texas dramatically outperformed its projected record in that AL West-winning ’16 campaign, so some regression was expected, but the team fell further than most would’ve figured and now faces some heavy offseason lifting.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $73MM through 2022 (can opt out of remaining four years, $58MM after 2018 season)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH: $62MM through 2020
  • Rougned Odor, 2B: $48.5MM through 2022
  • Cole Hamels, LHP: $28.5MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout of $20MM option for 2019)
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2018

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Mike Napoli, 1B: $11MM club option with $2.5MM buyout; team has reportedly informed Napoli the option will be declined
  • Martin Perez, LHP: $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
  • Tony Barnette, RHP: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Free Agents

[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]

More than half of the Rangers’ Opening Day roster struggled through some form of injury or unforeseen downturn in performance in 2017. Yu Darvish posted solid but unspectacular numbers for much of the first half, while Cole Hamels was sidelined more than two months with an oblique issue (to say nothing of his curiously evaporating strikeout rate). Jonathan Lucroy’s power was nowhere to be found, and Rougned Odor batted .204 with a ghastly .252 OBP in the first season of a six-year contract extension that now looks questionable. The Rangers also lost Adrian Beltre and Carlos Gomez for prolonged stretches due to injury. The bullpen was an unmitigated disaster.

And yet, the Rangers clung to hope in the Wild Card race for much of the season, riding a breakout season from Elvis Andrus, a 41-homer campaign for Joey Gallo and quality results from Andrew Cashner for much of the season.

The Rangers’ foundation began showing some cracks — a particularly troubling development in Arlington considering the fact that the cross-state-rival Astros’ own young core elevated its game to a new level. The simultaneous nature of the Rangers’ decline and the Astros’ ascension has put Texas behind the eight ball as it looks to get back into contention in 2018 and beyond. While there have been many Rangers fans suggesting that the team needs to retool, if not all-out rebuild, GM Jon Daniels has been blunt in stating that his team is not rebuilding. So then, where do the Rangers turn to right the ship?

The most pressing need is on the pitching staff — specifically in the rotation. Hamels will return to lead the 2018 rotation but has just one guaranteed year remaining on his deal and looked more like a back-of-the-rotation arm than his usual self in 2017. His 6.4 K/9 rate was easily a career low, and his 9.7 percent swinging-strike rate was two points lower than his previous career-worst mark. He’ll be joined by Martin Perez, whose $6MM club option is a no-brainer even if his production looked like that of a fifth starter (4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 185 innings).

Beyond that pair, the Rangers’ options are … uninspiring, to say the least. Cashner and trade acquisition Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving the Rangers with Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin, Clayton Blackburn and prospect Yohander Mendez as 2018 options. (Former first-round pick Chi Chi Gonzalez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready early in the season.) If the Rangers have any hope of contending, they’ll need to add at least one more established arm to the mix, and quite possibly two.

A pursuit of a Darvish reunion, to some extent, could conceivably be explored. The decision to trade him was a reluctant one from Daniels and his staff, and Hamels’ potential departure after the 2018 season leaves the team with virtually no certainty in the rotation after next year. However, the Rangers didn’t extend him when they had the chance, and the team’s financial outlook is ungainly enough that it seems like a genuine long shot that Darvish will be re-signed.

Texas has a significant amount of money on the books through 2020 thanks largely to Shin-Soo Choo’s albatross deal, and Daniels has suggested that the payroll will step back a bit from this past year’s Opening Day mark of $165MM — perhaps in the $155MM range, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. They’ll be off the hook for some of Prince Fielder’s salary after reaching an agreement with the insurers of his contract, and the club currently projects to about a $118MM payroll including Fielder and some non-tender/trade candidates. A backloaded Darvish deal shouldn’t be entirely written off as a possibility, but it’s tough to align Daniels’ stated desire to scale back payroll with a five- or six-year free-agent deal for Darvish that could check in with an annual value in the $23-26MM range.

The Rangers will also be prominently linked to Japanese star Shohei Otani, though they’ll face competition from 29 other teams if and when he’s posted. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers would be one of many in the mix if Otani becomes available this winter — a reality that looks less likely with the new revelation that the posting system agreement between MLB and NPB has expired — but reports have connected Texas to the young right-hander/slugger much more prominently over the summer. Speculating on any sort of “favorite”to land Otani seems futile right now, especially since his earning power is capped by MLB’s international signing guidelines, but Texas will be involved.

If not Darvish or Otani, the Rangers will have the money to invest elsewhere. Signing a big-ticket arm such as Jake Arrieta will present the same long-term payroll complications as Darvish. Second-tier names like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will be available but will very likely come with draft compensation attached, as each is a strong qualifying offer candidate. Texas could also look at more affordable overseas options, with Miles Mikolas and Hideaki Wakui each eyeing MLB jobs after strong showings in Japan. Mikolas, in particular, has been loosely linked to Texas (where he last pitched before going to the NPB).

It’s a similar, albeit not quite as grave situation in the bullpen. Lefties Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman will be back in 2018, as will righties Keone Kela and Matt Bush (though Bush will be coming off shoulder surgery and has been suggested as a potential rotation candidate). Hard-throwing Jose Leclerc is an option after averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in 45 2/3 frames this year, but he also averaged a jaw-dropping 7.9 walks per nine. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Ricardo Rodriguez and Nick Gardewine are all on the 40-man as well, but none impressed much as a big league reliever.

With no clear ninth-inning solution, Texas could conceivably take a run at a top-tier closer like Wade Davis or Greg Holland. But, again, with numerous needs up and down the roster — we’re not even to the position players yet — it seems likelier that Daniels & Co. will pursue quality assets in the second and third tier of the market. Brandon Morrow, Addison Reed and Mike Minor will probably have the most buzz on the second tier, while other options coming off strong seasons include Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak and old friend Tommy Hunter.

Turning to the lineup, the Rangers seem likely to let Robinson Chirinos shoulder the bulk of the load behind the dish. If they wish to push him back into a backup role, Welington Castillo and Alex Avila are options to serve as the primary receiver in Arlington next year. Both should command multi-year deals. Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley are among the veteran backups if Chirinos is the first choice.

Most, if not all of the infield is set. Andrus performed so well in 2017 that the notion of him opting out of his contract after the 2018 season is now perfectly plausible — if not likely. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre will be back at the hot corner, and for better or worse, second base will go to Odor as he looks to rebound from that aforementioned .252 OBP. First base looks likely to go to Joey Gallo, though the team could also elect to play Gallo in an outfield corner or at DH if the decision is made to pursue a free-agent first baseman. Eric Hosmer is almost certainly going to be out of the Rangers’ comfort zone, but Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana and Yonder Alonso are all conceivable possibilities on the market.

In the outfield, there’s less certainty. Willie Calhoun, the centerpiece from the Darvish trade with the Dodgers, could split his time between left field and DH if the Rangers want to go with an intriguing, bat-first option. He lacks experience, but Calhoun obliterated upper minors pitching in 2017 and is a consensus top 100 prospect. Otherwise, the Rangers have Nomar Mazara, Delino Deshields and Choo as options in the outfield (and, in Choo’s case, at designated hitter).

That’s not a very inspiring unit, unless Mazara bounces back and makes good on his longtime elite prospect status. Given that he won’t turn 23 until April and nonetheless has two full big league years under his belt, that shouldn’t come as a shock if it happens. But, that’s a lot to bank on, and the Rangers could be well served by at least adding a veteran outfielder that can handle center field or a corner. A reunion with Carlos Gomez certainly makes sense, with Jon Jay and Jarrod Dyson also representing viable free-agent alternatives.

The elephant in the room for the Rangers is Jurickson Profar. The former No. 1 overall prospect missed two seasons with shoulder injuries and was reportedly unhappy that he wasn’t traded prior to the non-waiver deadline. Texas simply doesn’t have at-bats to give him, having inked Andrus and Odor to long-term commitments at the middle infield positions. Profar didn’t hit much in a limited opportunity as a utilityman, but he did hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

That the Rangers elected not to give Profar a September call-up was notable for two reasons. First and foremost, it served as an even stronger indicator that his time with the organization is quite likely running out. A second, less obvious benefit to casual onlookers is that it prevented Profar from reaching four full years of MLB service time. Because he stayed in the minors, the Rangers will be able to market three years of Profar’s arbitration eligibility rather than two when shopping him this winter. Any team with regular middle-infield bats could plausibly be considered a suitor. The Padres, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and Brewers all strike me as speculative landing spots.

Profar’s trade value will be a fraction of what it was at its apex, though one can hardly fault the Rangers for not moving him when he was the game’s top-rated prospect. The team got extremely unlucky when it came to Profar’s health, but that doesn’t mean it can’t salvage some decent value here. While Profar won’t command a massive return, the Rangers could get a similar reclamation project for the rotation or possibly an MLB-caliber bullpen arm, among other lesser pieces.

If a payroll in the $155MM range is indeed the target, the Rangers may only have $35-40MM worth of open payroll capacity in 2018, depending on non-tender and trade scenarios. While that’s certainly enough space to fill multiple needs, it’s a fairly modest amount for a club that needs multiple starters, at least one reliever (likely more) and some outfield and/or first base help. Texas can always try to dump some of the remaining three years and $62MM of Choo’s contract on another American League club with DH at-bats open (e.g. the White Sox), but doing so would require paying down some of the commitment and providing prospect value to the acquiring team. Alternatively, they could try to facilitate some kind of bad contract exchange, taking on a similarly undesirable contract that at least filled a team need (e.g. Ian Kennedy).

Regardless of which route the Rangers actually take, they’ll need to add several pieces with a relatively limited cache of resources if the team truly does not intend to embark on any kind of significant rebuild this offseason. With a stacked Astros roster looming over the AL West, the Rangers face an uphill battle in returning to contention for a division title. But, it’s also difficult to fault any AL team for eschewing a full rebuild when only five American League clubs finished with a .500 record this season..

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

After an injury-riddled season, the Blue Jays are looking to rebound back into the AL East race.  With Josh Donaldson and several other key veterans only under contract through 2018, however, it remains to be seen if the Jays will acquire upgrades that will only help them next season, or if they’ll aim for longer-term assets.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview]

One major bit of offseason business has already been handled, as Marco Estrada agreed to a one-year, $13MM extension to return to the Jays next season.  2017 was easily the worst of Estrada’s three seasons in Toronto, though much of the damage was came during a midseason slump that Estrada has said was partially caused by off-the-field issues.  Given that Estrada looked closer to his old form during the second half of the season, he’ll give the Jays another solid arm to slot in behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez in the rotation.

Of course, that’s assuming Sanchez is able to recover from the blister and fingernail problems that kept him on the disabled list for much of the season.  A full offseason of recovery time would theoretically have Sanchez ready to go for Spring Training, though given the unpredictable nature of his recurring injury, re-signing Estrada was particularly important for the Jays.

Sanchez’s blister was essentially a metaphor for the entire 2017 Blue Jays season.  The team was simply never able to get rolling due to a swath of injuries and a lack of performance from most of the players who were able to stay healthy.  The starting rotation couldn’t duplicate its 2016 success, and the lineup delivered some of the poorest offensive numbers of any team in baseball.  A 2-11 start put the Jays behind the eight ball from the very beginning, and the club wasn’t able to achieve as much as a .500 record at any point during the year.

Better health will only go so far in solving the Jays’ problems.  The team can reasonably count on Donaldson, Happ, and Russell Martin delivering closer to full seasons, though Martin turns 35 in February.  Sanchez’s status is yet to be determined, and the substantial injury histories of Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis and Steve Pearce make them question marks rather than reliable regulars for next year’s lineup.

As one might expect in the wake of such a season, GM Ross Atkins has stated that adding roster depth is a big priority for the club.  The challenge will be in deciding where to acquire that depth, since the Jays are thin at several positions and don’t have much in the way of MLB-ready talent at the upper levels of the minors.

One such area is starting pitching, as the Blue Jays don’t have a fifth starter lined up.  Joe Biagini is the current favorite for the job but was inconsistent as a starter last season. Tom Koehler (if he isn’t non-tendered) or prospect Ryan Borucki could be candidates, while other internal options like Chris Rowley seem more like minor league depth options.  The case could also be made that Biagini and Koehler are better utilized as relievers.

Between the fifth starter opening and Sanchez’s blister concerns, the Blue Jays could have cause to add a veteran starter on a short-term deal.  Jason Vargas, CC Sabathia, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister, and familiar face Brett Anderson are a few of the experienced arms available in free agency, though with Estrada and Happ both under contract for just one more year, I’d argue that Toronto could make a bigger splash for a front-of-the-rotation type.  Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta seem like long shots, but the Jays have already been cited as a likely suitor for Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn is another second-tier rotation arm who would require a substantial, but not a bank-breaking multi-year contract.

Of course, Shohei Otani would be a great fit for Toronto, as he would in the rotation of every other MLB team.  The Jays’ interest in Otani is known, though it doesn’t seem like they are frontrunners for his services, if he is even made available to MLB teams at all this winter (which is looking less clear than ever).  If Otani did sign with the Jays, one would think the team would look to trade Kendrys Morales (even while eating some money in a deal) to free up the DH spot for Otani to get at-bats.

Even without an Otani signing, the idea of dealing Morales or another veteran regular may still have to be explored.  Morales and Tulowitzki have little to no trade value given their poor 2017 seasons and the money remaining on their contracts; Martin is also owed $40MM through the next two years, and there aren’t many contenders in need of catching help.

Atkins has said that the Jays aren’t looking to trade from their MLB roster, though that may be a necessity given their lack of minor league trade chips (and obviously top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette aren’t going anywhere).  A rebuilding team could have interest in Travis given his youth and the potential he’s shown when he has been able to play.  Justin Smoak’s breakout year turned his contract into a bargain, and Toronto could look to sell high on him, though teams could prefer to just sign a free agent first baseman rather than make a trade.  Teams could be interested in Kevin Pillar’s elite center field glove, and the Jays could conceivably replace Pillar in center field with Teoscar Hernandez or Anthony Alford.

The biggest trade chip, of course, is Donaldson, though he reportedly isn’t on the table as a trade candidate since the Jays plan to contend next year.  The star third baseman has expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Toronto beyond 2018, though if contract talks fail to materialize over the winter, trade speculation will only increase.  The Cardinals are known to be one of several teams interested in Donaldson’s services, and they’re a particularly interesting potential trade partner since they can offer outfielders and multi-positional infielders.  Even if Donaldson isn’t up for discussion, I’d imagine the Jays will have some talks with the Cards this winter.

These may seem like bold moves for a team that doesn’t seem to be planning any sort of huge shakeup.  That said, if the Jays intend to add (in the words of president/CEO Mark Shapiro) “Durability.  Athleticism. Flexibility,” to the roster, one way to achieve those goals is to move some of the players that don’t fit those categories.  Trading Travis, for instance, would make it easier for the Jays to sign a multi-position infielder like Eduardo Nunez, as Toronto could then offer Nunez regular time at second base and then have the option of bouncing him around the diamond as the situation warrants.  As mentioned, Morales couldn’t be dealt without eating a big chunk of the $23MM remaining on his contract, though moving a DH-only player who posted below-average hitting numbers last year would go a long way to giving the Blue Jays a more well-rounded roster.

If Toronto eschews bigger moves in search of pure depth additions, someone like Stephen Drew stands out as a left-handed hitting utility infield option.  Backup catcher is a notable area of need, as Jays backup catchers combined for -1.5 fWAR last year — a particular issue given that Martin played in just 91 games.  Miguel Montero struggled badly after joining the Jays last summer and isn’t likely to be re-signed.

The corner outfield positions are the most obvious areas to add much-needed speed and left-handed hitting into the mix.  The team has already confirmed that it won’t be picking up its end of Jose Bautista’s mutual option, ending the franchise icon’s tenure in Toronto on a sour (-0.5 fWAR) note.  This leaves Pearce as the top option in left field and Hernandez as the current favorite in right field after his impressive September performance.  Alford and Ezequiel Carrera are also in the mix as platoon or backup options, with former top prospect Dalton Pompey slated for Triple-A after missing almost all of 2017 due to a concussion and a knee injury.

There is clearly room for improvement here, as Pearce and the youngsters could be slated for left field and a new face could play right.  Jay Bruce has been a Blue Jays target in the past and would bring some much-needed left-handed pop to right field, so Toronto is likely to check in on his availability in free agency.  Left-handed bats like Curtis Granderson or Jon Jay aren’t quite ideal for everyday roles, though the Jays can use Pearce and Hernandez as their corner outfielders when a southpaw is on the mound.  If the Indians decided to decline their club option on Michael Brantley in the wake of Brantley’s recent ankle surgery, you’d expect Atkins and Shapiro to be all over Brantley given their past Cleveland ties.

Beyond free agents, teams like the Marlins, Indians, White Sox and (as mentioned) the Cardinals all could have outfielders for sale this winter.  Jays fans may cringe at the idea of another big trade with the Marlins, but since Toronto had some interest in Dee Gordon last summer, Miami fits as a trade partner that could address the Jays’ needs at both second base and in the outfield in a single blockbuster.  This is just my speculation, however — the Blue Jays may not have the prospects necessary to attract the Marlins’ attention on their star outfielders, and the Jays reportedly balked at Gordon’s remaining salary ($38MM through 2020).

Speaking of salary, the Jays have approximately $142.5 MM tied up in 19 players (eight guaranteed salaries and their 11-player arbitration class) for next season.  This gives them some room to spend if they approach their $163.3MM payroll from last Opening Day, though even with Bautista off the books, big arb raises for Donaldson, Pillar, Stroman, Koehler, and Roberto Osuna will wipe out a lot of those savings.  Koehler’s $6MM arbitration price tag is probably too high for the Jays’ liking, though they could look to re-sign him at a lower salary given his potential value as a swingman, multi-inning reliever, or fifth starter candidate.

Now that Osuna’s strong numbers no longer come with the benefit of a pre-arbitration salary, there will likely be some trade talk surrounding the 22-year-old closer.  Osuna had a career-high 3.38 ERA and ten blown saves in 2017 while also dealing with some anxiety issues.  S everal advanced metrics, though, indicate that the young closer was as dominant as ever last season and just ran into some bad luck (only a 59.5% strand rate) and perhaps some complications from increased usage of a cutter rather than his normal fastball-heavy arsenal.  While teams will surely approach the Blue Jays with offers, it would be a surprise to see Osuna dealt given that his salary is still quite reasonable for a closer with his track record.

The Jays also need Osuna to anchor a bullpen that posted some decent numbers last year despite being heavily overworked; Jays relievers pitched 596 2/3 innings, the third-most of any club in baseball.  Beyond Osuna, Toronto has some solid options on hand (Danny Barnes, Dominic Leone, Ryan Tepera, Carlos Ramirez) and could be further bolstered depending on what happens with Biagini or Koehler.  Aaron Loup is the only southpaw in the pen, so expect the Jays to check in on left-handed relievers this winter.  The club could look to replicate its low-cost signings of Joe Smith and J.P. Howell from last offseason, hoping for a better than their .500 return — Smith pitched well and was flipped at the trade deadline, while Howell battled injuries and was released in August.

The Atkins/Shapiro regime hasn’t made many big splashes in its two offseasons running the front office, though more is required this winter in the wake of the Jays’ disappointing 2017 campaign.  Counting on better health to fix the problems is a big risk, especially since the club’s roster is old enough that decline is just as big a concern as injuries at this point.  As intent as the Blue Jays are on contending, the AL East is competitive enough that another slow start could quickly turn the Jays into deadline sellers.  Some significant roster shuffling is needed for the Jays to make 2017 into an aberration, rather than the first sign that their contention window is closing.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information]

While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.

That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.

After firing pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blake Ilsley, the Cardinals hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach. The Redbirds were said to be seeking a “more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment“, and ultimately landed on Maddux after considering many potential candidates. They’ll hope his 15 years of experience can help get the most out of their young set of hurlers.

One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.

Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem as though the Cardinals have all that much interest in bringing Lynn back. He’s rumored to be seeking a Jordan Zimmerman-sized deal, which seems a bit outlandish and certainly more than the Cardinals are willing to pay for him. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright will occupy three spots in the rotation, and beyond that the Cardinals would probably like to see what they have in Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty rather than take a risk on a 30 year-old who’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Speaking of which, highly regarded young rightyAlex Reyes will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point in 2018. The likelihood that he’ll return early in the year will be a factor the Cards take into consideration when addressing their rotation this offseason.

Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.

With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.

Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.

The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.

That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.

Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.

Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.

Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.

Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.

So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.

In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.

The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A 102-win season for the Tribe included a record-setting 22-game win streak that defied injuries and mathematical odds. But an early exit in the postseason left players (and fans) reeling, and they’ll head into the offseason with a few key players set to become free agents. With most of the 2016-2017 AL Central champion core still in place, the Indians will probably only need some minor retooling to be considered favorites for a third consecutive division title.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $37MM through 2019 ($20MM option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
  • Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $28MM through 2019 ($16.5MM option for 2020, $2.5MM buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $9MM through 2018
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $23.5MM through 2019 ($13.5MM option for 2020/$14MM option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $8MM through 2018 ($9MM option for 2019/$9.5MM option for 2020, $662.5K in total buyouts)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $12.95MM through 2019 ($9MM option for 2020, $1MM buyout/$11MM option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Brandon Guyer, OF: $2.75MM through 2018 ($3MM option for 2019, $250k buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, INF: $21.4MM through 2021 ($11MM option for 2022, $2MM buyout/$13MM option for 2023)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $7.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM option for 2021, $450K buyout/$7MM option for 2022, $450K buyout)

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart; Cleveland Indians Payroll]

Cleveland’s roster is in good shape headed into the offseason. But for the first time in many years, the Indians will see several talented players become too expensive to retain. The Tribe’s guaranteed payroll plus projected arbitration salaries is already set to top $111MM in 2018, and that’s after setting a franchise record with a 2017 payroll close to $134MM. It’s unlikely that the small market Indians will significantly exceed that total, leaving them with some tough decisions to make this winter.

One of the first (and easiest) questions to answer will be whether or not to extend long-time first baseman Carlos Santana a qualifying offer. The switch-hitter has made at least 600 plate appearances in each of his seven full seasons with the Indians, averaging 3 WAR and 24 home runs across that span while leading the entire American League with 689 walks. While he’s been prone to slumps and is susceptible to extreme pull shifts, those weaknesses will definitely not be enough to dissuade the Indians issuing him a one-year QO at $17.4MM. He’ll almost certainly reject that offer, netting the organization a draft pick at the end of the first round should he sign elsewhere for at least $50MM in guarantees (or after Comp Round B, if the contract is less than $50MM). In the highly unlikely event he accepts the offer, they’d certainly be glad to have him back on a one-year deal during a contending season.

Beyond that, it would be atypical for the Indians to shell out big money and bring back Santana. Because he’s younger, he could seek more in terms of years than fellow first base/DH type Edwin Encarnacion did last winter. The average annual value of a new deal for Santana would tie up much of the remaining space in the Tribe’s 2018 payroll unless it were heavily backloaded, and such a contract could even approach or exceed the $60MM total promised to Encarnacion last winter. Perhaps there’s still some room to imagine a reunion, though. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored Santana’s market in-depth just last week, pointing out that another rich free agent first base crop could hurt his earning power. There were rumors back in April of a dialogue between the Indians and Santana’s camp, but at this point, teams like the Red Sox or Rangers will probably be able to offer the Octagon client more money.

Should Santana depart, the Indians could explore a reunion with Mike Napoli or Mark Reynolds. They might also have interest in Lucas Duda or any of the many other first base/DH candidates hitting the open market in a few days. The club has myriad internal options as well. Encarnacion could play first base, albeit with subpar defense. Such a move would allow the injury-riddled Michael Brantley to take over DH duties and stay off the field, if the Indians decide to pick up his option (more on that later). Outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall has some experience at first base, though he’s usually kept out of the lineup against left-handed pitching. Yandy Diaz might be a candidate to get a look at the position as well. It’s worth noting that the Indians have a high-upside first base prospect in Bobby Bradley, but he’s never played above the Double-A level and would therefore be unlikely to win the job out of spring training.

Thanks to some data-driven improvements to his swing, outfielder Jay Bruce enjoyed a strong 2017 season, clubbing 36 homers with a .254/.324/.508 slash line across 617 plate appearances between the Mets and Indians. He became a fan favorite after a trade to Cleveland in August, smacking the walk-off hit that extended Cleveland’s record winning streak to 22 games and crushing two clutch home runs in the ALDS. Like Santana, however, he’d require significant money to bring back. The Indians have a large crowd of left-handed outfield options already, including Brantley, Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin. The club will probably end up choosing among those options rather than try to retain Bruce. The 30 year-old slugger is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded mid-season.

Brantley, a former MVP candidate, has missed most of the past two seasons with ankle and shoulder injuries. For the third straight year, he’ll enter spring training coming off a significant surgery. While Brantley has been healthy, he’s been above average with the bat, hitting .292/.349/.427 with a typically low 13.4% strikeout rate. But although it seemed almost certain back in July that Cleveland would pick up his $11MM option for 2018, that decision may be one of the most difficult the Indians face this offseason. (The majority of MLBTR readers said they expect the team to decline the option in a recent poll.) Brantley’s health is a risk for sure, and the Indians will have to factor that in when trying to fit the payroll puzzle pieces together.

If the Indians do pick up Brantley’s option (with intentions of utilizing him in the outfield), Chisenhall could potentially become a trade candidate. Although his 129 wRC+ when healthy ranked fourth among Indians hitters, Lonnie Baseball’s $5.8MM projected arbitration salary might be more than the Indians care to pay for an injury-prone platoon player. The club could instead opt to have Naquin fill his role at the league minimum salary in order to open up payroll space to use in other ways. Then again, the club seems to have passed over Naquin in favor of other options this year, so he might not be someone they’re willing to rely on. Chisenhall will more likely than not be on the opening day roster for 2018, but I expect they’ll at least explore the trade market for him.

Austin Jackson is another player the Indians will have to make a decision on. With health questions surrounding Brandon Guyer, Cleveland would probably like to have another right-handed outfielder on the roster. The 30 year-old has a great track record outside of a poor 2016 season, and is coming off a year in which he had great (albeit BABIP-driven) success at the plate. Of all their free agents, Jackson is probably the most likely candidate to be brought back, but even he might cost more than the Indians are willing to pay with the speedy switch-hitter Greg Allen waiting in the wings.

Kipnis’ role with the club will be a big factor in the Tribe’s offseason plans. He’s coming off a poor offensive season wherein he had multiple stints on the DL, and the two positions he played for the club in 2017 seem tabbed for All-Star Jose Ramirez (second base) and Zimmer (center field). Ramirez could shift back over to third to make room for Kipnis at second, but the club might want to get long looks at Diaz and top prospect Francisco Mejia, the latter of whom is being tested at third in the Arizona Fall League. And Giovanny Urshela remains on hand as well; he struggled badly at the plate but carried the bulk of the load at third down the stretch. Depending on what happens with Brantley and Chisenhall this offseason, it seems like Kipnis could slide to a corner outfield spot — if he’s not traded, which also appears possible.

So, if the Indians decide to play Encarnacion at first base with Brantley as the main DH, the outfield pieces would fall into place somewhat conveniently, with Zimmer in center and Chisenhall, Kipnis, Allen, Guyer and Abraham Almonte as the other main outfield options. The club could then explore inking Jackson to a new deal or exploring a free agent crop that includes Melky Cabrera, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Gomez as reasonably-priced options.

If the club declines Brantley’s option and opts not to sign a free agent first baseman, they’ll probably at least inquire on J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton, whose right-handed power would be a welcome addition to a lefty-heavy outfield. However, those outfielders are likely to be well out of their price range; each would command even more money than a new contract for Santana. Given the commitment to Encarnacion, it’s not altogether clear that kind of investment is really plausible. Jose Bautista could be another free agent they consider as a bounceback option, at a much lower price.

Another option would be to fill the potential hole in the lineup via trade. The Indians have two blue chip prospects in Mejia and strikeout wizard Triston McKenzie, and a good number of upside prospects beyond them. If they opt to decline Brantley’s option, the Tribe could target right-handed hitting outfielders Marcell Ozuna of the Marlins or Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. Matt Adams of the Braves could be available at a lower cost and would fill the first base opening nicely.

On the pitching side, the Indians might have the payroll space to bring back one of Joe Smith or Bryan Shaw, but it’s highly unlikely that both will return. If both depart, the Tribe’s bullpen might be able to succeed on internal options alone. With Cody Allen and Andrew Miller at the back end, they’ll once again be well off in close games. Zach McAllister, Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and Dan Otero will all be back, and the Indians could rely on Shawn Armstrong or Kyle Crockett to fill the remaining opening. I expect the Indians to decline lefty Boone Logan’s option and sign at least one free agent bullpen arm from the middle or lower tier, but there’s a good chance they’ll rely on internal options and waiver claims as well, provided they can’t retain Smith or Shaw. It’s worth noting that the Indians will open 2018 with a surplus of starters if they pick up Josh Tomlin’s $3MM option, so it’s possible that he, Danny Salazar or Mike Clevinger could pitch in a relief role as well.

A brilliant starting rotation has become Cleveland’s signature, and the whole group is coming back once again. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Salazar and Clevinger are all under control through 2019. I anticipate the club will pick up Tomlin’s option for 2018. Cody Anderson will be able to serve as vertical depth when he returns from Tommy John recovery at some point this season, while Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando will be available for spot starts as well.

No Indians offseason outlook would be complete without a mention of former Platinum Glove-winning shortstop and MVP candidate Francisco Lindor. The 23-year old posted another phenomenal season, slugging 33 homers and posting good defensive marks across 1,377 innings at shortstop. He posted an 8.3% walk rate and 12.9% strikeout rate exactly identical to his 2016 season while leading the entire American League with 723 plate appearances. After reportedly offering their young phenom an extension close to $100MM this past spring, they’ll no doubt make another attempt to lock him up before the 2018 season begins. After another 6-WAR season, he’ll probably cost even more in terms of guaranteed dollars, but with Lindor quickly establishing himself as one of the Tribe’s all-time great shortstops — and arbitration beckoning in the fall of 2018 — this might be the last reasonable chance they have to keep him in Cleveland beyond his age 27 season.

Although Cleveland typically makes an attempt to extend as many young players as they can, there aren’t many extension candidates in the organization outside of Lindor. Bauer showed major improvements in the second half, and with three arbitration years remaining he’s probably the next best candidate with whom to explore a long-term deal. But the occasionally offbeat righty has had his ups and downs and is at best a questionable target for a new contract. Clevinger could be worth a conversation as well; he’s shown promise in his limited service time.

The Indians already took care of one notable item on the docket when they found a pitching coach to replace Mickey Callaway, who was recently hired as the Mets’ new manager. The loss of Callaway comes as a sting to the Indians, whose pitching staff has been the best in baseball by WAR since he became the pitching coach in 2013, in addition to being the only staff during that time to average over a strikeout per inning across the board. He’ll be replaced by Carl Willis, who previously held the position in Cleveland and (more recently) with the Red Sox.

The Indians have a lot of flexible pieces to try and connect in a creative roster mosaic this offseason. The amount of possible combinations will be both an advantage an a headache, but whatever path they take, they’re likely to enter 2018 as favorites to return to the postseason once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Marlins could hold the key to the offseasons of many other organizations, as new ownership (led by CEO Derek Jeter) will reassess the team’s direction after a disappointing 2017 campaign.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Marlins Depth Chart; Marlins Payroll Information]

Jeter seems to be tweaking, rather than overhauling, the team’s baseball operations department, which will still be led by Michael Hill. But with new decisionmakers at the top of the food chain and key new execs installed downstream (in particular, Gary Denbo), the Marlins seem ripe for at least a partial roster overhaul.

Financial pressures will surely weigh in. Though incoming ownership is surely hoping that an improved business and baseball approach can turn the club into an annually profitable undertaking, that won’t be the case right off the bat. There are continued whispers that the purchase price was high and that the ownership group isn’t quite as firm, financially speaking, as might have been hoped.

Whatever the precise cause, rumor has it that Jeter and his charges will be looking to significantly reduce the team’s payroll this winter, perhaps as far south as $90MM. That’s hardly unfamiliar territory; indeed, the organization has only twice cracked nine figures and has otherwise never gone over $75MM in Opening Day payroll. But after several investments drove last year’s franchise-record $115MM+ slate of salaries, it’s a big drop. Since the existing guarantees and projected arbitration payouts would alone push the team into the $130MM range, the reported target likely portends some major trades.

Much of the speculation thus far has focused on slugger Giancarlo Stanton — for good reason. He nearly reached 60 long balls last year, will just 28 years of age over the offseason, and is going to begin earning annual salaries in excess of $25MM in 2018. While the overall contractual guarantee remains daunting, perhaps it’s an approximately market rate of annual pay for a player of Stanton’s abilities. His appeal is unlikely to be higher than it is now, after he raised his national profile with his dinger barrage and turned in a productive and healthy overall season.

Giancarlo Stanton

Though Stanton is an obvious trade candidate, his contract is hardly a straightforward asset to deal. From a PR standpoint, it’s hard to move a player of such prominence, though perhaps the ownership change also represents an opportune moment to turn a new leaf. Stanton enjoys full no-trade protection, but he has indicated he would rather not hang out in Miami for a rebuild. The post-2020 opt-out may perhaps give some other teams some pause if asked to give up significant young assets (quite apart from the lofty total contract price). Sufficient future payroll capacity will be an obvious prerequisite to acquiring Stanton. As of yet, the market situation is mostly undeveloped, but there’s been (in some cases speculative) mention of teams like the Phillies, Giants, and Red Sox as potential suitors.

There are any number of fascinating scenarios that could be dreamed up regarding Stanton, depending upon the precise motivations of the teams involved. Will the new Miami leadership be willing to keep some of the money (or take on an underperforming veteran in the swap) to increase the prospect return? Or is the primary goal to realign the balance sheets? And might other veteran Marlins players even potentially enter trade talks as the various teams seek to structure mutually beneficial scenarios?

There are plenty of other conceivable trade candidates on Miami’s roster, especially on the position-player side. In all likelihood, the offseason changes will be driven more by trade interest from rivals than by any specific needs the Marlins wish to address. It’s possible that the club will move Stanton but mostly otherwise keep together its relatively affordable and youthful core. But it’s equally conceivable — and perhaps advisable — that the organization will rip the band-aid off all at once.

Other teams are no doubt eyeing swaths of Miami’s roster as players to consider pursuing over the offseason. Outfielders Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna will hold even more appeal than Stanton to many organizations, given Yelich’s eminently affordable contract and Ozuna’s reasonably priced projected salary. There are loads of sluggers that can be had for cheap, but first baseman Justin Bour still stands out as an ascendant and affordable hitter. Derek Dietrich could be a useful platoon piece for other clubs given the solid pop he brings along with defensive capacity (albeit not mastery) at the 3-4-5 spots in the infield as well as the corner outfield.

Miami’s best trade asset, though, could actually be catcher J.T. Realmuto. That’s due in large part to scarcity at the position; reliable everyday backstops are one of the game’s rarest assets. Realmuto, 26, is an above-average hitter and baserunner who comes with three more seasons of affordable control. He throws and blocks well. And while he once rated as a poor framer, there’s now a notable (and quite unusual) split: Stat Corner views him as a wreck at winning strikes, while Baseball Prospectus now sees Realmuto as an ace pitch sweetener.

Those players all carry excess value against their contractual commitments. In a wholesale sell-off scenario, the Fish could recoup serious young talent. Other players hold out more promise of freeing payroll space. Dee Gordon should draw some interest, though there are quite a few other second basemen available and his contract looks to be in range of his hypothetical open-market value. And though Martin Prado won’t be a hotly pursued commodity — he is coming off of an injury-plagued 2017 and turns 34 at the end of October — some clubs would surely take on some of his salary. The better bet, in Prado’s case, might be to hope that an early-season turnaround boosts his value at the trade deadline.

Any acquisitions on the position-player side will be dependent upon what happens with the long list of players just discussed. The Marlins could end up adding young MLB talent in trades. Or they could end up with some pretty distinct holes to be filled by seeking lower-priced veterans in free agency. Third baseman Brian Anderson is perhaps the best candidate to join JT Riddle as a new semi-regular. Otherwise, there isn’t much in the way of quality young talent pressing for MLB time from the upper minors, as most of the Marlins’ best prospects are pitchers and/or lower-level position players.

To the extent the Marlins really try to compete in 2018, the chief needs would be found in the pitching staff. And the team will need enough arms to make it through the season regardless, so odds are that it will at least pursue lower-cost and minor-league free agent candidates.

In the rotation, that could mean adding at least two or three arms. Another opening could be made if the Marlins decide to move righty Dan Straily. He turned in another solid season and offers surplus value to teams that want quality innings at a below-market rate. Straily’s projected $4.6MM salary would represent only represent a small fraction of the sum the Marlins reportedly hope to shed, but he could net some upper-level talent that could conceivably step onto the big league roster in the not-too-distant future. Affordable arms are always in demand, and Straily reportedly drew a fair bit of interest prior to the non-waiver deadline.

While the club would love to find a taker for its remaining obligations to lefty Wei-Yin Chen, that’s hard to imagine after he missed most of the season with a partial UCL tear that did not require surgery. Rather, he’ll be run out there if he’s healthy in hopes that he’ll give innings and perhaps regain his form. His ability to do so is no sure thing, though, as skipper Don Mattingly has questioned whether Chen will be able to pitch at all next season. It’s perhaps still theoretically possible that Edinson Volquez will make it back from Tommy John surgery late in 2018, but the Marlins can’t count on anything from him and aren’t likely to shed his $13MM commitment.

Otherwise, Jose Urena outperformed his peripherals but surely deserves a starting job. And the team’s aggressive promotion of Dillon Peters suggests a belief that he’s ready to shoulder a big load at the game’s highest level. He has typically shown excellent control, so he’ll no doubt pare back his 5.5 BB/9 debut walk rate, and there’s obvious promise in his 63.3% groundball rate. The team can also give more opportunities to southpaws Adam Conley, Justin Nicolino, Chris O’Grady and Jarlin Garcia (who may yet move from the ’pen back to the rotation) or dip further into the system, where Trevor Richards is one of the more interesting, near-term possibilities. Clearly, though, there’s cause for the front office to pursue some bounceback arms and perhaps make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft to pair with righty Odrisamer Despaigne as depth options.

The situation is rather similar in the bullpen, where there’s one interesting young potential trade candidate (Kyle Barraclough), two expensive veterans that did not quite live up to their salaries (Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa), and a slate of inexperienced youngsters. The team could get something of interest back for Barraclough, who has four more years of team control and has averaged 12.1 K/9 with a sub-3.00 ERA in 163 big league innings. It’s also feasible that Miami could generate some interest in Ziegler following a strong finish to the season (especially if the Fish pay down some of his $9MM price tag), but that’d only mean opening yet more jobs at the MLB level. Regardless of what happens with the existing players, there’s an evident need to add plausible major-league arms, as Drew Steckenrider represents the only other young, controllable lock for a bullpen slot.

All things considered, the Marlins’ pitching staff is among the worst-positioned in baseball for near-term success. While there are some high-upside arms filtering northward, none seem likely to arrive soon, and recent top 10 overall picks Tyler Kolek (No. 2 in 2014) and Braxton Garrett (No. 7 in 2016) have both had Tommy John surgery. The organization has felt the pain of mortgaging the future already; for instance, while Straily worked out about as well as could have been hoped, he cost the team young flamethrower Luis Castillo, who has an exceedingly bright future and has already turned in 89 1/3 quality MLB innings for the Reds.

Fielding a competitive team would mean upgrading the pitching, which in turn would require some combination of: 1) weakening the position-player mix through trade; 2) spending more money; 3) parting with prospect capital; and 4) hitting on buy-low targets. With the Marlins looking to shave payroll and set the stage for a sustainable future, there’s little in the way of opportunity — let alone justification — for trying again to win with this basic roster mix.

Instead, it’s almost surely time for the organization to part with some of its best players in service of a new plan. How far they’ll go (along with how they’ll backfill) remains anyone’s guess — and also represents perhaps the most wide-reaching variable in the development of the overall player market this winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Angels were almost the definition of a perfectly average team (80-82 record, 710 runs scored to 709 runs allowed) in 2017, and they stuck around the AL Wild Card race for most of the season.  Much of the Angels’ offseason business will hinge on Justin Upton’s situation, though the team will have some money to spend in addressing several holes on the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Justin Upton, OF: $88.5MM through 2021 (Upton can exercise player option and become a free agent)
  • Ricky Nolasco, SP: $13MM club option for 2018 ($1MM buyout)
  • Huston Street, RP: $10MM club option for 2018 ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information

Upton has been in talks with the club about his opt-out clause, which would allow him to test free agency and walk away from the four years and $88.5MM remaining on his contract.  Upton just turned 30 last August, and coming off his big season, should be able to find a somewhat larger and longer-term deal on the open market.  That said, the Angels could be floating the idea of extending his current contract by an extra year or two in order to keep the outfielder in Anaheim.  Despite generally strong performance, Upton has played for five different franchises since the start of the 2012 season, so he could welcome the chance at simply staying put.  For what it’s worth, Upton would be playing close to his offseason home in Arizona and he reportedly had an interest in the Angels two winters ago.

If Upton stays in the fold, that checks one major bit of business off GM Billy Eppler’s to-do list.  Upton enjoyed one of the best seasons of his 11-year career, hitting .273/.361/.540 with 35 homers over 635 PA with the Angels and Tigers.  He would both fill a big hole in left field and give the Halos a big bat to pair with the incomparable Mike Trout in the lineup.

If Upton opted out of his deal and left town, it would be a disappointment for the club, but the Angels accepted that risk when they surprisingly acquired Upton on the last day of August.  The silver lining of Upton’s departure would be another big salary off the books, giving the Angels even more of what they haven’t had in several winters — financial flexibility.

Counting Upton’s deal and a projected $30.2MM in arbitration costs, the Angels have just over $142MM committed to 19 players next year.  (Josh Hamilton’s contract is finally off the team’s books.)  While the club has traditionally stopped short of the luxury tax threshold during Arte Moreno’s ownership, that still gives Eppler plenty of room to address the Halos’ many needs.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Angels will return to their old ways of splurging on big-ticket free agent deals, however, especially given how often those contracts failed to work out for the team.  Still, there is room for one big salary to be added, and maybe two if Upton were to depart.

Looking around the diamond, Los Angeles is set in center field (Trout), right field (Kole Calhoun), shortstop (Andrelton Simmons), catcher (Martin Maldonado) and DH (Albert Pujols).  “Set” is not really the right word in Pujols’ case, as the veteran’s -2.0 fWAR was the lowest of any qualified player in baseball last year, though the Halos have no choice but to ride out the final four seasons of Pujols’ contract and hope for a late career renaissance.  Catcher could technically also be an area of need, though the Angels love Maldonado’s defense and they think his bat will improve now that he is more used to the rigors of regular catching duty.  First base could also potentially use an upgrade, though the likeliest scenario is a platoon between C.J. Cron and Luis Valbuena.

Yunel Escobar and late-season trade acquisition Brandon Phillips are both free agents, leaving the Angels with holes to fill at third and second base.  The latter position has been a long-standing problem area for the Halos, and I’d expect the team to try and finally make a solid fix by pursuing Neil Walker in free agency.  Walker is the top second baseman on the market this winter, and L.A. has tried to land Walker in the past, falling short in trade talks with the Pirates two offseasons ago.

If Walker again can’t be acquired, the Angels could pursue a reunion with Phillips, or check in on other free agent options like Eduardo Nunez, Asdrubal Cabrera (if the Mets don’t pick up his club option), or Jose Reyes.  On the trade front, the Angels had some interest in the Marlins’ Dee Gordon before the July deadline, plus the likes of Ian Kinsler, Josh Harrison, Cesar Hernandez, Scooter Gennett, Yangervis Solarte or Jed Lowrie could also be available in deals.  The Angels’ much-maligned farm system still doesn’t have much in the way of prospects that would facilitate trades, though the team’s extra payroll space could help them in this regard.

A multi-positional player like Harrison or Nunez could also help out at third base.  As per Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times, Escobar isn’t expected to be re-signed, leaving the Angels thin at the hot corner.  The team could turn to Valbuena at third base in lieu of an external addition, as while Valbuena’s first season in Anaheim was underwhelming overall, he did hit quite well after the All-Star break.  The big-ticket add, of course, would be signing Los Angeles native Mike Moustakas for a grand homecoming.  Moustakas would fill a particular need for the Angels in adding a big left-handed bat to a heavily right-handed lineup — one would think that if the Halos do make a big acquisition for third, second or left field, that player would swing from the left side.

If left field does become a need with Upton gone, the Angels could aim for a splash like trading for Andrew McCutchen, signing J.D. Martinez or (again with a left-handed bat in mind) signing Jay Bruce.  Alternatively, shorter-term options like Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay or Howie Kendrick could be explored.  Teams like the Marlins and Cardinals have outfielders available in trades this offseason, so expect to see the Angels check in on those options if Upton is no longer in the picture.  The club could also look for a backup outfielder, if the Angels aren’t satisfied with Eric Young Jr. and/or Shane Robinson.

Injuries have crushed the Angels’ pitching staff over the last two years, though the team finally appears to have things back on track, health-wise.  Garrett Richards will headline the 2018 rotation, with Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, JC Ramirez, Andrew Heaney, Parker Bridwell and Nick Tropeano all on hand as starting or depth options.

This is still a pretty unproven rotation even if everyone is healthy, so Anaheim is likely to explore adding at least one more arm.  This is another area where Eppler could again splurge on a free agent, as a Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta would go a long way towards stabilizing a staff with a lot of question marks.  Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are less expensive options, though either hurler would still come at a significant price.  It could be that the Angels are okay with their current options and simply want a veteran to purely eat innings, which opens their search to any number of free agent arms available on short-term contracts.  To this end, the team could look for a reunion with Jesse Chavez or Ricky Nolasco, though in Nolasco’s case, the Angels would decline their $13MM club option on his services and pursue a lesser deal.

Shohei Otani, of course, could be had at a league-minimum salary and for what’s left of the Angels’ $4.75MM international bonus pool, though the Halos will be competing with every other team in MLB for Otani’s services.  While little is known about Otani’s decision-making process as he prepares to jump to North American baseball, the Angels (a big-market west coast team with Mike Trout on the roster) certainly have some selling points.  On the other hand, Otani wants the opportunity to hit, and the Angels can’t offer regular DH at-bats thanks to Pujols’ presence.  As much as the Angels or any other club may want Otani in the fold, it seems unlikely that a prized starter would be allowed to regularly play the outfield or at first base in between starts.

Turning to the bullpen, the Halos won’t be exercising their club option on Huston Street, thus ending the former closer’s injury-riddled stint in Anaheim.  Even with Street out for virtually all of 2017, however, the Angels’ bullpen was quietly one of the game’s more effective relief corps.  Yusmeiro Petit’s outstanding season was a big factor in the pen’s success, and with the Angels putting importance on the value of multi-inning relievers, it stands to reason that the team will look to re-sign the veteran righty.  Other teams will surely also be interested, and Petit will have one of the more interesting free agent cases of any reliever on the market this winter, given such factors as his age (33 in November) and his value in this era of teams prioritizing bullpen depth.

Blake Parker is the current favorite to be the Angels’ closer next season, as his breakout year earned him save chances down the stretch in 2017.  Parker’s potential makes it less likely that Los Angeles would go after one of the big-name experienced closers on the market (i.e. Greg Holland, Wade Davis) but I can see the team adding a veteran reliever to supplement the young bullpen corps of Parker, Keynan Middleton and Cam Bedrosian.  One option might be old friend David Hernandez, who posted excellent numbers for the Angels before being dealt to the Diamondbacks at the July trade deadline.

The Angels will be a fascinating team to watch this offseason, as they have a lot of question marks to address but also several proven or intriguing building blocks.  Eppler has been much more active in the trade market than in free agency in his first two offseasons as general manager, so more deals could be in the offing, or this could be the winter where Moreno again opens the checkbook for another big signing.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Despite making a number of additions prior to the July 31 trade deadline, the Rays faded down the stretch, falling short of both a wild card berth and even a winning record.  The club now faces another offseason of adding low-cost pieces while facing hard decisions about trading pricier talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $81MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $5MM buyout)
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $47MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $2.5MM buyout)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $13.75MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • Wilson Ramos, C: $10.5MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

The Rays haven’t had a winning record since 2013, but with Evan Longoria, Chris Archer and (most recently) Kevin Kiermaier locked up on long-term deals, it seems as though the club will continue to try and contend rather than explore a full teardown and rebuilding process.  That being said, Tampa could very well duplicate its approach from last offseason — aiming to add, but prepared to shift course and start selling if an offer too good to refuse comes in for Archer or Jake Odorizzi.

These are the financial realities for the small-market Rays, whose quest for a new ballpark isn’t any closer to resolution, and whose revenues took an extra hit in 2017.  While owner Stuart Sternberg recently stated that a total payroll slash wasn’t likely to happen, “the first move is down” for the 2018 payroll.

Salaries for Longoria, Archer, Kiermaier and Wilson Ramos total $36.25MM next year, while the Rays are projected to spend $41.4MM on a large arbitration class of 13 players.  Even with a couple of obvious non-tenders, those modest savings would be wiped out by Nathan Eovaldi’s $2MM club option, which is likely to be picked up as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery.  That works out to a payroll north of the $77MM mark, which is already higher than any Opening Day payroll figure in franchise history.

The most obvious candidates for trades are the more expensive names within that arbitration class — Odorizzi ($6.5MM), Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM), Alex Colome ($5.5MM), Adeiny Hechavarria ($5MM) and Brad Miller ($4.4MM).  It would be surprising if all five of these players were wearing Rays uniforms in April, though they also carry their share of warning signs for potential trade suitors.  Hechavarria has an excellent glove but is not a very productive hitter; Colome saw his strikeout rate drop and both his contact and hard-hit ball rates rise; injuries contributed to Odorizzi and Miller delivering replacement-level seasons; and Dickerson’s bat went ice-cold after a strong first half.

Odorizzi’s down year is the biggest concern, as it both lowered his asking price in trades and also gave the Rays a question mark heading into next year’s rotation if the righty is kept.  Alex Cobb is a virtual certainty to leave in free agency, whether or not the team issues him a qualifying offer. (There are indications that’s the intention, though putting $17.4MM on the table for one year of Cobb may just be too great a risk, particularly after Jeremy Hellickson took the Phillies’ QO last year.)  Cobb’s departure would increase Odorizzi’s importance in next year’s rotation.  The starting four looks to be Archer, Odorizzi, Blake Snell and Jake Faria, with Matt Andriese, Eovaldi and top prospect Brent Honeywell all in the mix for the fifth starter’s job.  Jose De Leon and Taylor Guerrieri will be at Triple-A but are coming off injury-plagued 2017 seasons, so Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos are currently the top minor league depth options.

There’s enough depth here that the Rays could feel comfortable about their pitching even in the event of an Odorizzi trade, provided they get some injury luck and Snell/Faria both continue to develop as reliable-or-better big league arms.  Andriese could also be shopped, though a hip injury limited him to 86 IP last year, and the Rays likely aren’t keen on selling low on a pitcher with four years of team control.

The biggest move, of course, would be an Archer trade.  The ace right-hander also comes with up to four years of his control via the club options on his team-friendly contract, and he only reinforced his credentials by delivering more strong numbers in 2017.  Teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Braves and Astros have all been linked to Archer in the past and they (and others) are sure to check in with Tampa’s front office about the righty’s availability.  It would take a major blockbuster of a trade package to actually trigger a deal, however, as Archer’s contract makes him particularly important to a low-payroll club like the Rays.

Colome’s asking price wouldn’t be nearly as hefty after a tepid 2017, though his experience as a closer, past dominance, and remaining control would still hold appeal to other organizations. That said, he is another pitcher the Rays would likely prefer to keep since Tommy Hunter, Sergio Romo and Steve Cishek could all leave the bullpen in free agency.  The Rays don’t have a clear heir apparent at closer if Colome is dealt, unless they feel Brad Boxberger is ready to reclaim his old job after two injury-plagued seasons.  After Colome and Boxberger, Tampa Bay probably has enough young arms on hand that they won’t make any hugely notable moves to their relief corps, aside from adding a left-handed pitcher to the mix.  Xavier Cedeno missed much of 2017 with forearm problems and advanced metrics didn’t love Dan Jennings’ work, so the Rays could use some extra southpaw depth in the pen.

Consistent offense continued to be a problem for the Rays in 2017, though full seasons from Ramos and Kiermaier should provide an internal boost to the lineup.  Logan Morrison’s one-year, $2.5MM deal ended up being a terrific bargain for the Rays, but with Morrison’s 38-homer season likely set to land him a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rays now have a big hole to fill at first base.

This position could also be addressed from within, should Tampa feel that prospect Jake Bauers is ready for the big leagues.  Entrusting a starting role to a rookie who only posted good but not great (.263/.368/.412 over 575 PA) Triple-A numbers would be a bold move, so the Rays could sign a veteran right-handed hitting first baseman like Mike Napoli, Danny Valencia or perhaps even Jose Bautista as a platoon partner.

Alternatively, the Rays could shift Miller back to first base if they feel Bauers needs more seasoning.  All of Miller’s 303 career innings as a first baseman came in 2016, when he also enjoyed a breakout year at the plate, and it’s at least possible that playing a less-demanding defensive position contributed to Miller’s performance.  Metrics such as UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved indicated that Miller was also a below-average defender at first base, though that would be less of a problem than his subpar glovework at second base.

Then again, it’s a question as to whether Miller is in the Rays’ plans at all given his -0.1 fWAR performance last season.  A non-tender doesn’t seem likely (it would be hard for the offense-starved Rays to walk away from a player who hit 30 homers in 2016) but Miller is likely to be shopped this winter thanks to his significant arbitration number.

The Rays could again use Miller at second base if they can live with his defense, though options abound in the middle infield.  Unlike with Miller, the Rays know what they’re getting in Hechavarria, whose $5MM projected salary comes with the promise of an outstanding shortstop glove.  Retaining Hechavarria is probably the safest bet since star prospect Willy Adames has yet to debut in the majors and former shortstop-of-the-future Matt Duffy is a wild card after missing all of 2017 due to complications from heel surgery.  Adames and Duffy could factor into the second base picture, however, if Miller is traded or shifted to first.

Dickerson has provided the Rays with capable defense over his two seasons with the team, though he’ll need enough DH time that left field looks like an area of need.  Mallex Smith will return as the fourth outfielder but doesn’t have the bat for such a significant role, so Tampa will likely explore veteran outfielders that could be had on a short-term deal, akin to the one-year, $5MM contract with Colby Rasmus from last winter.  If the Rays were willing to spend a bit more, a versatile player like Howie Kendrick could be a nice fit as a right-handed bat capable of spot duty in left field, second and first base.

Speaking of versatility, it’s worth noting that the Rays have a “sincere” interest in Shohei Otani, which perhaps implies more than the standard due diligence that every team is undoubtedly doing on the 23-year-old two-way star.  Otani’s apparent disinterest in immediate salary riches helps the Rays’ case, though they almost surely wouldn’t be able to offer him a truly massive extension after he has spent enough time in North America for such a deal to pass muster with the league.  It can’t be understated what a franchise-altering addition Otani would be, though it’s safe to call the Rays a longshot suitor at best.

After four straight losing seasons, the Rays are still looking for those missing pieces to their roster puzzle, as well as hoping that they can finally get a year where all their key players are both healthy and productive at the same time.  The emergence of players like Snell, Faria, Duffy, Honeywell, Adames and Bauers as productive regulars would be an enormous boost for a Rays team that relies on young talent, though some type of proven veteran additions will be necessary to get the club back over the .500 mark.

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