Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

2017-18 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

By and | at

This is the final entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Last season, the Diamondbacks managed a remarkable reversal of their 2016 record by finishing 93-69, making the playoffs for the first time since 2011. With most key pieces of its Wild Card-winning core still intact, Arizona focused its energy on replacing J.D. Martinez and Fernando Rodney while piling on a horde of bullpen candidates.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Options Exercised

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart/Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll]

Needs Addressed

The Snakes made a surprising postseason run in 2017, the first season under GM Mike Hazen and skipper Torey Lovullo. While the core of the roster remained under contract for 2018 (and, in many cases, beyond), the Hazen-led front office still faced challenges.

The most stinging loss for the Snakes headed into the offseason was outfielder J.D. Martinez, who was a monster after coming over at last year’s trade deadline. They always seemed a long shot to re-sign him, with Zack Greinke’s massive deal weighing heavily on the future payroll and the team’s 2018 tab already set to reach record heights.

Still, the club never really shut the door on Martinez through the first three and a half months of the offseason. After all, they had a King Kong-sized hole to fill in the lineup. It’s no coincidence that Martinez finally made things official with the Red Sox just a week after the Diamondbacks gave up on him and pivoted to Steven Souza on the trade market.

Of course, the team had a powerful right-handed bat set to return from injury. But it has been clear for a while now that Yasmany Tomas won’t meet the lofty expectations placed on him when he came over from Cuba. The club officially recognized that fact when it outrighted him to Triple-A at the start of the season. It’s unfortunate that he’s fallen so far in the eyes of the organization, which is surely disappointed that its $68.5MM investment won’t pay off.

Tomas, then, was not seen as a real part of the plan to replace Martinez. Rather, the club first picked up free agent Jarrod Dyson at what seems to be an appealing price. He provides another piece (and a different skillset) for the corner outfield mix while also ably complementing and providing insurance for oft-injured center fielder A.J. Pollock. While Tomas still could have been viewed as the righty thump to go with Dyson’s left-handed-hitting speed and defense, the front office elected instead to chase down Souza. Though that deal cost the D-Backs an important upper-level rotation asset in Anthony Banda and a quality infielder in Brandon Drury, the organization obviously felt it was dealing from depth in those areas.

Of course, parting with Drury also helped spur the Diamondbacks’ late move to acquire infielder Deven Marrero from the Red Sox. The depth has proven necessary following an injury to third baseman Jake Lamb, which has left Daniel Descalso seeing much of the action at the hot corner. Marrero was available at a minimal price owing to a roster crunch in Boston.

The D-Backs also had an opening at catcher with vet Chris Iannetta hitting the open market. While a reunion was pursued, market timing led Iannetta to join the division-rival Rockies and left the Snakes to pursue Alex Avila. Though he has had his ups and downs over the years — including, especially, a frightening run of concussion problems — Avila could be a great value if he can hit anything like he did last year (.264/.387/.447, 14 home runs).

Outside of Archie Bradley, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen was the team’s other big area of concern. But without much room to spend, they certainly weren’t a likely landing spot for marquee relievers like Wade Davis, Greg Holland or Addison Reed. Instead, they opted to add Yoshihisa Hirano, who comes over after a long run of success in Japan’s top league. While he appears to be the beneficiary of some good batted ball fortune, holding hitters to a .215 wOBA despite a .329 xwOBA, Hirano has managed to induce a solid volume of swinging strikes. Arizona also turned to the trade market to add Brad Boxberger, an experienced late-inning arm who has had his share of injury troubles in recent years. Like Souza, he came courtesy of the Rays’ rebuild. Boxberger has performed well as the closer in the early going.

The organization didn’t stop there, though. It made a flurry of other moves to bolster the bullpen. MacFarland was added on a cheap major league deal, in addition to minor league reliever signings that reached double digits by the season’s outset. While there were no doubt some targeted arms in the group, to an extent the strategy seems to have been one of throwing possibilities against the proverbial wall to see what would stick. As of now, members of that group make up nearly half of the club’s bullpen, as MacFarland, Salas and De La Rosa have all captured middle relief jobs for the time being. Several others remain on hand in the upper minors as depth options.

While most of the above moves were geared towards a strong push for contention this season, the Dbacks did make one important move with their long-term future in mind. The extension of Ketel Marte helped them gain cost-certainty over their second baseman while picking up a pair of options over two of his would-be free agent seasons. It’s an intriguing move with a good bit of upside. Marte proved to be something of a Statcast darling last year with his batted ball profile. He finished in the top 25% of MLB hitters in xwOBA, a statistic that measures expected offensive output based on launch speed and angle of batted balls. That made him a popular breakout pick entering the season despite a mediocre offensive output in 2017 on the whole.

Questions Remaining

While Arizona’s starting rotation is a strength overall, it doesn’t come without its share of question marks. It’s no sure bet that Zack Godley or Robbie Ray will sustain the surprise breakouts they each enjoyed last season. Indeed, the latter had some struggles with walks and home runs in the early going (before being felled by an oblique injury). Patrick Corbin’s off to a scorching start, but he and fellow veteran Zack Greinke both come with some injury concerns that ought not be overlooked.

The club’s pitching depth always seemed likely to be tested at some point this season. That’s now a certainty with Ray hitting the DL after the team already lost one starter for the campaign in Taijuan Walker, who underwent Tommy John surgery after suffering a torn UCL in his pitching elbow. As such, Matt Koch has been forced to take on a full-time role in the rotation, leaving the club without much in the way of inspiring depth options. Troy Scribner, Braden Shipley and Kris Medlen are probably next in line. As things stand, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the D-Backs end up looking for a starter on the mid-season trade market.

While Marte has a nice ceiling, the infield duo of he and Nick Ahmed did not look particularly strong entering the year and remains a question mark. Though Ahmed is off to a nice start with the bat, there’s still quite a lot for him to prove at the plate. And Marte has endured a brutal opening month with the bat. Whether or not these players can hit enough to provide a quality middle-infield unit will be a situation to monitor for the Diamondbacks throughout the season.

Despite the overwhelming quantity of moves geared towards patching it, Arizona’s bullpen looks a bit flawed outside of Bradley and Boxberger. While much of the relief corps has actually performed pretty admirably so far, one has to wonder how long a patchwork group of relievers with mediocre reputations can (in conjunction with that late-inning duo) continue to post the best ERA of any bullpen in baseball. Then again, their entire pitching staff is likely benefiting at least marginally from the new humidor that’s been installed at Chase Field; that’ll be an interesting sub-plot throughout the season.

Overview

The Diamondbacks didn’t need to do much outside of addressing their bullpen. As a result, they focused their energy on plugging an important hole in the lineup, finding a backstop, and making an avalanche of reliever additions. The result so far? They’ve won their first nine series of the season, and they’ve done it mostly without Souza or Lamb.

Arizona now has a great shot at a second consecutive playoff berth, but its roster depth will continue to be tested. The front office pulled off an impactful, high-value swap last summer to land Martinez. He won’t be available this time around, but Hazen and his compatriots may need to work similar magic again at this year’s trade deadline.

How would you rate the Diamondbacks’ offseason work? (Poll link for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By | at

This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Following their fifth consecutive losing season, the Phillies added some talented veteran pieces to supplement an exciting young core. While they’re far from a perfect ballclub, their winter moves have likely shortened their rebuilding period.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It’s been a trying half-decade for the Phillies fan base. After being spoiled by nine consecutive winning seasons (including a World Series championship), they’ve watched their beloved ballclub limp to .500 or worse finishes in each of the six years since 2012, including a 66-96 record in 2017. Perhaps the front office had begun to feel pressure to put a winning product on the field, or perhaps the timing was just right; either way, GM Matt Klentak and crew made a couple of surprising headliner moves worth being excited about.

Four free agent acquisitions served to add about $65MM to the 2018 payroll. While that may seem like a lot for a team that still looked to be in rebuild mode, the Phillies only had about $30MM on the books before those moves. For a ballclub that routinely spent $138MM or more on player salaries between 2010 and 2015, it’s almost as though they had to spend that money on at least something. In fact, Philadelphia would have opened the season with its lowest payroll since 2002 (!!) had it not been for the last-minute signing of Arrieta. For reference, that’s before Ryan Howard and Chase Utley had even reached the major leagues. One could say that the Phillies addressed a need simply by avoiding a controversially-low spend level at the season’s outset.

That said, it’s fair to wonder how much the 32-year-old righty moves the needle for the Phillies now or in the future. In spite of a hot start, the Phillies don’t seem particularly likely to keep up with the Mets or Nationals all season. Furthermore, Arrieta has exhibited a steady decline since his otherwordly 2015 Cy Young campaign and doesn’t look likely to deliver value on the $45MM he’s owed from 2019-2020. It’s even conceivable that the Phillies could consider flipping him this summer if he’s outperforming the rest of the roster, in essence flexing their financial muscle in order to add more MLB-ready (or MLB-adjacent) young talent, though that’d mean opening another near-future rotation hole.

Regardless, the additions of Arrieta and first baseman Santana allow the Phillies to put a competitive team on the field for the first time in many years. The additions of Hunter and Neshek came at a premium annual price tag but will bring veteran depth to an otherwise youthful relief unit. While they’re still far from a complete club, the Phillies have patched a few holes and given the fans more reason to come to the ballpark.

More importantly, they avoided committing to lengthy contracts in making these improvements. Santana and Arrieta are only on the books for three years, meaning if either contract goes bad, it won’t necessarily detract from the club’s next contention window in a major way. Interestingly enough, it’s almost as though Klentak and co. did just enough this offseason to show Phillies fans a clear light at the end of the tunnel without limiting their flexibility to spend big in the coming years.

Not to be lost on Phillies fans was a subtle move the franchise made to pave the way for shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford. The trade of Galvis to the Padres allows Crawford everyday playing time; it also cleared an unnecessary salary obligation while adding an intriguing young pitcher to the farm system in Enyel De Los Santos. While the 22-year-old right-hander didn’t seem to be an especially exciting addition at the time of the swap, his hot start in Triple-A has opened some eyes already by striking out a whopping 22 batters in 13.2 innings (three starts) en route to a 1.98 ERA.

The club filled its managerial opening with Gabe Kapler, whose only managerial experience was a year with the Red Sox A-ball affiliate. His greenhorn status showed early on in the season with some questionable pitching management, which he responded to responsibly by drawing up a few bullpen usage guidelines. A string of positive outcomes has re-focused the attention on the more promising aspects of Kapler’s non-traditional approach to his new job, which will surely be examined closely all year long.

The Phillies also placed a strong bet on the talent of Scott Kingery, signing him to a six-year, $24MM extension that allowed the club to promote him for opening day without worrying about service time considerations. Primarily a second baseman by trade, he’ll play all over the field for the time being. He’s one of just two players ever to ink a contract extension before ever playing a day in the major leagues (Phillies brass will hope he pans out better than Jon Singleton), and a triad of club options can keep him in Philadelphia through 2026 for an annual average of $14MM if they’re all exercised. The bold move allows the club to gain cost control over a high-ceiling player during years when they’re a strong bet to be competitive, and indeed helps extend that control through a few would-be free agent seasons without a pricey commitment.

Questions Remaining

If there’s an arguable shortcoming in Philadelphia’s offseason efforts, it could be that the club was not able to extend club control over more of their young core. There’s certainly a lot of variability in the extension process; a player has to be willing to get a deal done, after all. But while it’s not known exactly how much effort the club made to lock up players like Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams or Jorge Alfaro, it’s a bit disappointing that they weren’t able to get more pacts hammered out. On the other hand, there was no real urgency to get a deal done, particularly for the latter three, and the front office may prefer to see how things play out in some cases. While the Kingery deal has a lot of financial upside and was certainly an exciting maneuver, it’s certainly not the norm for a club to hand out long-term pacts to players with less than a year of service time.

The more interesting aspect of the terrain ahead for the Phillies is how they’ve set themselves up for the coming offseason. As I mentioned above, they’ve subtly managed to add headliner free agent talent without limiting impacting flexibility for their long-term future. That means they’re still potentially in play for names like Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin, Craig Kimbrel, and Clayton Kershaw in the coming winter, all of whom could significantly move the needle during their impending competitive window.

In the near term, though, the most interesting subject of note is how the Phillies will proceed with players such as Maikel Franco. Kingery’s already received 57 defensive innings at third base, and although that’s only about six games’ worth of playing time, it comes out to nearly a third of the young season. At the time of the extension, the Kingery deal seemed to spell doom for fellow infielder Cesar Hernandez, but as he’s off to a roaring start with a .431 on-base percentage in 102 plate appearances, it looks like Franco (who has a career .300 OBP in over 1,700 career PA) could be the one whose job is in jeopardy over the long run.

While the overall depth and quality of the MLB roster looks much better than it did this time last year, it’ll also take quite a few positive developments to allow sustained contention. Talented young players such as Crawford, Williams, Alfaro, Kingery, Andrew Knapp, and Aaron Altherr have yet to fully establish themselves at the game’s highest level. Though all signs point to continued stardom for Rhys Hoskins, he’ll also need to adapt as pitchers focus on ways to retire him while working to improve his defense following a challenging shift to left field. Santana, Crawford, and Odubel Herrera — the team’s best-established position players — will need to play at or near their peak levels if the club’s hot start is to be carried all the way into September. And Kapler will have to perform a delicate balancing act in allocating playing time.

The pitching results have been quite promising early, but there’s also uncertainty there. Will Nola and Vince Velasquez stay healthy (and will Jerad Eickhoff return to full strength)? Can Nick Pivetta continue to tamp down on the free passes and sustain his promising start to the year? Will Arrieta continue to outperform his peripherals? And how will the depth hold up once it’s tested? And in the bullpen, which has endured absences from Hunter and Neshek early on, there’s plenty to like but also plenty of risk in a group of youthful arms. Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano have been awfully impressive thus far in 2018, but neither has yet proven capable of dominating over a full MLB campaign. Closer Hector Neris is getting the job done but not exactly dominating. And there has already been some turnover in the middle-relief unit. In the aggregate, the arrow points up in the pitching department, but it’s not hard to see where some cracks could form over the course of a long season.

Overview

The Phillies’ offseason moves helped put a more competitive team on the field, and the sun appears to be rising on their return to playoff contention. There’s still some fog about the dawn of the new era, though. Plenty of uncertainty surrounds any group of young prospects, and Arrieta and Santana alone as free agent acquisitions can’t guarantee contention.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason work? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By and | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Cardinals brass made a concerted effort to improve their roster through retooling and talent consolidation this offseason. They’ll hope those tweaks can help them get back to the playoffs after missing them in back-to-back seasons.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Cardinals 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

The Cards entered the offseason facing the pressure of a roster crunch; myriad players would soon become vulnerable to the Rule 5 Draft, and spots on the 40-man were already prime real estate. They lost right-hander Luis Perdomo two years prior, and would need to navigate the process carefully to prevent losing valuable players such as Alcantara, Tyler O’Neill, Oscar Mercado, Derian Gonzalez and Austin Gomber.

Through some clever maneuvering, the Cardinals managed to entirely avoid being targeted during the draft’s major league phase. Alcantara, along with a pair of pitching prospects, went to the Marlins in exchange for Ozuna, while the latter four players of concern earned protection by way of addition to the expanded roster. Ozuna’s acquisition gave the Redbirds a formidable outfield trio, making Piscotty and Grichuk more luxury than necessity. Because of that, and with the safety net of outfield prospects Harrison Bader and O’Neill, they were able to flip Piscotty and Grichuk to fill a need in the bullpen and pad their farm depth.

It’s worth mentioning that while Ozuna was certainly a high-profile addition who should prove a marked improvement over Piscotty or Grichuk, he’s somewhat of a consolation prize in the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes. The birds made a strong run at Stanton over the offseason, and indeed seemed to have made an offer the Marlins liked. Unfortunately for both clubs, the reigning NL MVP and MLB homer champ had no interest in going to St. Louis; he chose not to approve a deal to the Cardinals and ultimately found his way to the Yankees instead.

As the now-infamous free agent freeze continued through December, the most daunting task for St. Louis was to find stability for the back end of a bullpen that had lost Trevor Rosenthal midseason to Tommy John surgery, and saw three more relievers depart in free agency. Part of this was addressed relatively early on with the Gregerson signing, and with the acquisition of Leone from the Blue Jays for Grichuk in mid-January. When Bud Norris’ price tag had fallen far enough, the team seized yet another opportunity by nabbing him on the cheap.

But even at this point, the club’s job of patching up its relief corps could only be given a B grade at best. The Birds still lacked a truly reliable shutdown presence; this only became more glaring when Gregerson began to deal with injuries during spring training. Leone didn’t exactly have an extensive MLB resume, and it would be fair to describe Norris’ 2017 season as up-and-down.

Greg Holland | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsThe result of these circumstances was a game of free-agent chicken with free agent closer Greg Holland. Though the two seemed to be an obvious match throughout the majority of the offseason (which I briefly mentioned in both Holland’s Free Agent Profile and our Offseason Outlook for the club), the Cardinals went on record multiple times saying that they weren’t interested in a lengthy commitment to a reliever. Holland’s market failed to develop as he and agent Scott Boras had hoped after he declined both a $15MM player option and a $17.4MM qualifying offer, and subsequently turned up his nose at a Rockies offer reportedly in the range of the three-year, $52MM deal Wade Davis ended up signing. Ultimately the Cardinals won the stare-down, as they ended up locking Holland into a one-year, $14MM deal that was less than all three of the pacts he’d rejected across the previous months.

The Cardinals didn’t just need relievers, though. With the subtraction of Lance Lynn (and reported lack of interest in bringing him back), they needed to fill at least one hole in the rotation, or else rely heavily on both the oft-injured Adam Wainwright and unproven prospect Jack Flaherty. They opted for the former, and did so creatively by signing Mikolas, who was fresh off another impressive performance in Japan in 2017.

Though they didn’t need to tinker with their infield much, the Cardinals addressed a long-term need by inking shortstop Paul DeJong to a six-year, $26MM extension. He certainly earned that deal after leading the club in homers last season despite not getting a promotion until mid-May. It didn’t come as much of a surprise; as I mentioned in the offseason outlook for the Cards, they’ve got a track record of extending players before they hit free agency, and DeJong seemed a prime target for one of those pacts.

Questions Remaining

It would be a stretch to claim that the Cardinals have any glaring weakness remaining. But at the same time, it would be tough to make the case that any one area of their roster stands out as a strength. Their outfield, infield and bullpen could all be described as above average, while the rotation seems stable enough. But outside of the Reds, the NL Central is unlikely to be a pushover. The Cardinals have neither the offense to out-slug the Brewers, nor the pitching to out-duel the Cubs.

If they do have a strength, it’s offensive depth. St. Louis has a strong pair of outfield prospects (Bader, O’Neill) and a group of infielders that can play multiple positions, which has already proved useful this season during Jedd Gyorko’s temporary absence. Luke Voit and Yairo Munoz aren’t top-end talent but could certainly step in and perform at least passably if called upon.

Jack Flaherty | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY SportsPerhaps the most concerning issue facing the Cardinals right now is the club’s starting pitching depth, or lack thereof. With Adam Wainwright back on the shelf, the Cardinals are already being forced to use their most viable depth option in Jack Flaherty. Top prospect Alex Reyes could return from Tommy John surgery in late May or early June, but the Cardinals reportedly plan to use him out of the ’pen for at least part of his first season since going under the knife.

Outside of swingman John Gant, none of their other decent pitching prospects have more than a handful of innings’ worth of experience beyond the Double-A level. If the Cards end up in a position where they’re forced to turn to Gant or Gomber for more than a spot start, there’s likely to be some white-knuckling on the part of the front office and in the club’s dugout.

Overview

In essence, the Cardinals were able to check off every item on their to-do list over the course of the offseason. While Ozuna was probably the only acquisition that could be considered splashy, each individual move they made served to solve a problem with a reasonable solution. An outgoing pitcher was replaced with one who projects to do just as well. Four strong bullpen arms were added to replace three free agent relievers and one lost to injury. They began with a surplus of outfielders, which they essentially consolidated to add a more talented one. And while one could argue that they only marginally improved the team this winter, they’re certainly likely to see improvements from a number of talented young players.

How would you grade the Cardinals’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Reds added a few role players but largely turned in a quiet offseason.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed 3B Eugenio Suarez to seven-year, $66MM contract with $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2025

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Reds entered this winter, much as the two previous ones, in something of a stasis at the major-league level. While there have been some encouraging signs from certain young players, the organization has not yet found cause to invest in high-quality veterans, both because it has yet to fully develop a new core of young talent and because the payroll is still burdened by several large contracts.

There’s no doubt that the Cincinnati ballclub is in a rebuild. It has failed to top seventy wins or crawl out of the NL Central basement since 2014. Unlike many organizations that find themselves in such a position, however, the Reds have not been able (or, to some extent, willing) to drastically slash payroll, which has barely dipped below $90MM over the past several years — not that far off of the ~$115MM high-point reached in 2014 and 2015.

On the one hand, that’s simply a product of circumstances. Several of the team’s most expensive players — Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco, and Brandon Phillips before them — have been essentially untradeable due to injuries, performance, and/or no-trade protection. But the team has also not found appealing opportunities to deal other expensive assets. Well-compensated superstar Joey Votto has full no-trade rights. Closer Raisel Iglesias — who’s relatively cheaper at this point but could opt into arbitration next fall — is rightly seen as a long-term asset, though certainly there’s risk in keeping a high-end young reliever. Center fielder Billy Hamilton was a frequent subject of trade chatter but ultimately was held over the just-completed offseason. And second bagger Scooter Gennett — who was a nice find last spring — is like Hamilton both increasingly pricey and nearing a final trip through the arb process.

The club also decided not to deal third baseman Eugenio Suarez, instead declaring him part of the core moving forward with an extension. He’s valued for both his glove and bat by the Reds. If he can maintain the pace he sustained in 2017, the contract will prove a relative bargain, though it’s also another big commitment and thus obviously carries some risk.

Those players, of course, are still in town. Former shortstop Zack Cozart, on the other hand, departed via free agency — leaving the Reds without any compensation. The club seemed in position to deal him at times, but evidently his ill-timed health issues and/or a lack of reasonable offers precluded a deal. While the Reds held out the possibility of extending Cozart, that never happened and the organization ended up not issuing him a qualifying offer at the end of the 2017 campaign. That decision is hard to fault, as Cozart may have felt it too risky to pass up $17.2MM for one season and carrying draft compensation onto the open market. Without knowing the precise offers that could have been had, it’s hard to second-guess the organization too much for its handling of that particular situation, but it’s certainly a less-than-desirable result in the situation of yet another quality veteran player.

In the aggregate, then, the Reds have likely not pocketed significant amounts of cash even while they’ve put an unsuccessful product on the field. And the organization has reasonably substantial sums already committed into the future, including about $68.5MM for 2019, $49.5MM for 2020, and $40MM for 2021. Contemplating future spending capacity is all guesswork from the outside, but it seems reasonable to say that the Reds did not save as much money or clear as much future payroll space as quite a few other rebuilding teams have in recent seasons. And that likely left less to work with this winter.

Given the situation, perhaps it’s unsurprising that the Dick Williams-led front office ended up turning in another quiet offseason. The organization took a budget-conscious approach to its two biggest needs — accounting for Cozart’s absence and adding some arms — and otherwise mostly elected to maintain the status quo in hopes of finding improvement from within in 2018.

With the outfield and starting infield already accounted for from within, the Reds decided to pursue a few utility pieces to help carry the load while waiting for top prospect Nick Senzel. The club ended up giving Opening Day jobs to both Cliff Pennington and Phil Gosselin, providing a veteran presence but not much hope of significant output.

On the pitching side, David Hernandez and Jared Hughes were both given low-AAV, two-year contracts to firm up the relief corps. Late-spring signee Yovani Gallardo was another addition, though it wasn’t long before he was cut loose. That trio was supplemented by a variety of claims and minor-league signees who’ll combine to add depth, but perhaps not much quality, to a Reds pitching staff that has been irredeemably awful over the past two seasons. Thus far in 2018, recent additions Kevin Quackenbush and Dylan Floro have stuck in the majors, while the team was also able to stash lefties Justin Nicolino and Kyle Crockett in the minors and off of the 40-man roster.

Questions Remaining

The resulting pitching unit is entirely underwhelming on paper. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the staff has opened the 2018 season as the worst in baseball, continuing a pace of three-year futility that may rival any in baseball history when all is said and done. Of course, as I argued last fall, there wasn’t much sense throwing money at the problem at this point. Even significant spending likely would not have made this roster a contending one; any outside chance at staying in the hunt was likely snuffed out anyway with a 3-and-15 start.

What the Reds are hoping, then, is that their slate of hurlers makes some strides that improve the future outlook. Veteran Homer Bailey is hoping to return to some level of health and effectiveness after three forgettable seasons. With $49MM still owed on his deal (including a buyout of a 2020 option), the best the team can hope for is to fill up some innings or perhaps save a bit of cash if there’s a team interested in a trade. It’s still anybody’s guess when Anthony DeSclafani will return from his run of injuries. He can be controlled for 2019 and 2020 via arbitration. Brandon Finnegan, who has one further year of control, is back on the hill after missing almost all of 2017. Each of these pitchers has succeeded at times in the majors, but whether they can do so again is questionable at best.

There’s some promise from younger arms, too. Luis Castillo was a major bright spot in 2017 and is the most intriguing player the team has returned from its recent trades. Tyler Mahle is expected to turn into a solid MLB starter. But both of these pitchers still need to fully establish themselves at the game’s highest level. A host of other arms — Sal Romano, Amir Garrett, Jackson Stephens, and former top prospect Robert Stephenson among them — will get their share of opportunities. Some, surely, will end up dropping into relief duty (as Garrett has to open the year). Perhaps one or more will prove worthy of a starting slot in the future, though you’ll be hard-pressed to find strong believers among outside talent evaluators.

Garrett has looked good in a relief role to open the season, potentially giving the team another late-inning piece while Hernandez and Michael Lorenzen work back from injury. Iglesias remains the anchor, while Wandy Peralta and Cody Reed provide two more lefty options to go with Garrett. Any contending team would have gone hunting for multiple upgrades over the winter. For the Reds, though, it’s more sensible to run out the pitchers they have to see what sticks.

The situation on the position-player side is more promising, generally, but also comes with some concerns. Perhaps no area is of greater interest than the middle infield. With Suarez locked in at third (once he’s back to full health), it seems that Senzel will end up playing in the middle infield. If he’s capable of playing short, that could put even greater pressure on Jose Peraza, who has to this point wilted with the open opportunity he has received since the start of the 2016 season. Gennett could be a mid-season trade candidate, though rival teams are no doubt aware of the deeper history (including his lack of success against lefties) that preceded his excellent 2017 season. First base (Votto) and catcher (Tucker Barnhart, Mesoraco) rate as strengths.

The outfield unit also has some more established options, though none are foolproof. Hamilton is a defensive and baserunning whiz whose bat seems less and less likely ever to come around. He’s flanked by two powerful, OBP-challenged players in Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler. Well-regarded youngster Jesse Winker is also slated to receive a lot of playing time after showing well in a 47-game stint last year. Phil Ervin, himself a former first-round pick, rounds out the major players in this arena. There’s talent here, but it’d be hard to call this a first-division unit. If things break right, though, the Reds could build from this group without further additions.

Overview

The real problems with the Reds’ current situation began not with any decisions this winter, but with whiffs in years past on moving veteran assets. A combination of questionable decisionmaking (especially, holding some veterans at the 2015 deadline) and poor prospect outcomes, along with injuries and some bad fortune, largely left Williams and co. without appealing options for moving things forward over the just-completed offseason. Unfortunately, that means another season of waiting and hoping that the young talent in an increasingly well-regarded farm system will develop — and do so in time to join Votto while he’s still one of the game’s best hitters.

How would you grade the Reds’ offseason efforts? (Link for MLBTR app users.)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Yankees managed to go from July 2016 sellers to the 2017 ALCS, coming within one game of a World Series appearance in a remarkable turnaround. Their offseason was reflective of the fact that any “rebuild” in the Bronx has already come and gone.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

As one would expect of a club that came within a game of the World Series and retained the majority of its roster, the Yankees weren’t exactly teeming with clear needs entering the offseason. GM Brian Cashman and his lieutenants completed a good portion of their offseason shopping back in July, in fact, acquiring not only Sonny Gray but also David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, thus bolstering the pitching staff for the foreseeable future in the course of adding reinforcements down the stretch.

For the Yankees, the 2017-18 offseason was much more about being opportunistic and reinforcing existing areas of strength than it was about addressing glaring weaknesses. Rather than acquire a specific skill set or a player at a certain position, the team’s top priority seemed to be resetting its luxury tax penalty by dipping back beneath the $197MM tax threshold.

To that end, the team seemed to be primed for a spirited pursuit of young phenom Shohei Ohtani, whose signing bonus wouldn’t have counted against that tax calculation and who could pitch several seasons near the league minimum. The former Nippon Professional Baseball superstar seemingly shocked the Yankees, however, when he informed them that they would not even be one of the seven finalists with whom he sat down for an in-person interview.

Cashman & Co. evidently subscribe to the belief, however, that when one door closes another opens elsewhere. With the DH spot in the lineup no longer earmarked for Ohtani on his non-pitching days, the Yankees circled back to the Marlins, who’d previously contacted them to gauge their interest in Giancarlo Stanton. To that point, trade talks surrounding the reigning NL MVP had focused on the Giants and Cardinals — a pair of clubs that weren’t on Stanton’s list of desired trade destinations. Stanton kept an open mind in meeting with each organization, but the Yankees’ miss on Ohtani created a new opportunity with a team that Stanton had expressed a desire to land with.

Roughly a week later, the two sides had agreed to arguably the biggest deal of the offseason. Stanton was introduced to the media as the newest Yankee at this year’s Winter Meetings. In exchange for taking on the vast majority of his contract, the Yankees only were required to part with a pair of mid-range prospects and Castro, whose own $22MM commitment helped to offset some of Stanton’s deal.

Stanton’s massive contract, of course, came with plenty of luxury tax concern, which made the inclusion of Castro’s deal important and made the subsequent trade of Chase Headley back to the Padres all the more critical. The Yankees agreed to part with young pitcher Bryan Mitchell and received Jabari Blash in return — a 28-year-old outfielder whom they later designated for assignment. The Headley trade, as far as the Yankees were concerned, was all about shedding the vast majority of his $13MM annual luxury hit. Surrendering four years of club control over Mitchell at an affordable rate was the cost of doing business.

Missing out on Ohtani, though, left the Yankees with at least a modicum of uncertainty in their rotation scene. CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda were no longer in the fold, leaving Luis Severino, Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Masahiro Tanaka (who surprised many by forgoing his opt-out clause) as the top four options in the Bronx. While prospects Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield loom in the upper minors, the Yanks struck a one-year, $10MM deal to put Sabathia back in pinstripes as means of deepening the rotation and ensuring that their prized young arms wouldn’t need to be rushed to the big leagues.

That Castro and Headley were now on new clubs left the Yankees with a pair of openings around the infield. Those vacancies left many Yankees fans eagerly envisioning a high-upside infield of Miguel Andujar at third base, Didi Gregorius at short, Gleyber Torres at second base and Greg Bird at first base. That alignment may very well be the future in New York, but the Yankees understandably had some trepidation about turning the infield over to three inexperienced players. Andujar and Torres had scarcely played above the Double-A level.

In March, Neil Walker told the New York Times that he thought he’d been close to an agreement with the Yankees before they swung a three-team deal with the D-backs and Rays that sent Swiss Army knife Brandon Drury to the Bronx instead. That deal seemed to prolong a surprisingly tepid market for Walker, but in the end, the Yankees came away with both players. As they did with Stanton, the Yanks parted with a pair of mid-range prospects in order to install Drury into their infield mix for the next four seasons, and they later added Walker for just a $4MM guarantee despite his steady track record as a decidedly above-average bat and ability to handle multiple positions.

Questions Remaining

Despite the team’s quick turnaround and Joe Girardi’s general success over a decade-long run at the helm for the Yankees, Girardi was not offered a contract to return for the 2018 season. Rather, the Yankees conducted a search of surprisingly inexperienced managerial candidates and ultimately settled on the least-experienced option interviewed by any of the five clubs who hired new managers this past offseason.

Former Yankee and ESPN broadcaster-turned-manager Aaron Boone has been thrown directly into the fire with the Yankees, managing a club with World Series aspirations, plenty of star power and also a number of key young talents who figure to make their MLB debuts this season. Boone will juggle all of that in the nation’s largest media market while dealing with one of the game’s most vocal fanbases. It’d be a daunting task even for an experienced skipper, and there’ll probably be some bumps along the way.

Most of the other questions facing the Yankees pertain more to their health and finances than the on-field product. Namely, after spending the entire offseason unsuccessfully trying to find a taker for Jacoby Ellsbury, they’ve now watched as a concussion, hip issue and plantar fasciitis have all combined to prevent Ellsbury from taking the field in 2018. Ellsbury was owed more than $68MM with a full no-trade clause even before that slate of injuries, and the possibility of shedding his contract looks increasingly remote.

While many Yankees fans have clamored for the club to simply release him, though, Ellsbury was a perfectly serviceable piece when healthy in 2017. His .264/.348/.402 slash (clearly) wasn’t worth the near-$22MM salary the Yankees are paying him, but he’s also not devoid of on-field value. That’ll be a situation on which Cashman and his charges will have to deliberate at length; at some point, perhaps they’ll simply cut bait, but in doing so they’d be committing to fully paying his luxury tax hit for the next three seasons. If the front office still feels that a healthy Ellsbury can contribute on the field or eventually be moved for some salary relief, then an unconditional release is an understandably unpalatable course of action.

At first base, meanwhile, Bird has already undergone ankle surgery, further raising questions about his ability to remain healthy in the long term. The 25-year-old has legitimate power (16 homers, .250 ISO through 348 MLB plate appearances), but this will be the third straight surgery-shortened season for him. He’s previously had shoulder surgery (2016) and a separate ankle surgery (2017). Walker and Tyler Austin present alternatives (Walker’s poor start notwithstanding), but the 2018 season will be critical for Bird as he looks to establish himself as an infield fixture.

If there’s one area the Yankees are lacking, it’s left-handed relief, with Chasen Shreve and closer Aroldis Chapman constituting the lone southpaw options on the 40-man roster. Oliver Perez is in the organization as a potential veteran option, though, while righties Chad Green and David Robertson have actually dominated lefty opponents more than same-handed hitters.

The rest of the roster looks to be largely set, at least for the coming season. Perhaps if Bird’s ankle injuries linger or if Andujar and/or Torres struggle for a prolonged stretch, they’ll seek additional depth. But the acquisitions of Walker and Drury already offer some measure of contingency plan. Austin Romine’s career .266 on-base percentage is an eyesore, but the Yanks seem content with his defense and were never rumored to be in the market for an upgrade over him as the backup to Gary Sanchez.

Any deadline needs that pop up for the Yankees figure to be driven by injuries and/or underperformance rather than area of weakness heading into the season. On paper, the club looks stacked, and while dismal starts from Stanton and Sanchez, in particular, have caused some angst, the Yankees look like a potential juggernaut once their bats wake up.

Overview

If Plan A for the Yankees was to land Ohtani, their Plan B of Stanton plus a series of quality depth additions is no small consolation. By midseason, it’s possible that the Yankees’ lineup will feature Stanton, Sanchez, Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Torres, Andujar, Bird, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner — a collection of veterans and high-upside talents that could form one of the most productive units in all of baseball. With an exceedingly deep bullpen and a quality rotation backed by prospects like Adams and Sheffield, there should be similar optimism for the pitching staff. Prospect trade chips abound. And because the front office succeeded in not only resetting the luxury tax but dropping beneath the penalty line by roughly $16MM, there’s ample room for the Yankees to upgrade as necessary this summer.

The expectation level has quickly been raised in the Bronx, though, and it stands to reason that anything shy of a deep postseason run will be considered a disappointment.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Milwaukee’s rebuild reaped significant benefits faster than most anticipated in 2017, setting the stage for an active but also puzzling offseason from GM David Stearns & Co.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Chase Anderson, RHP: Two years, $11.75MM plus club options for 2020 ($8.5MM) and 2021 ($9.5MM)

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Milwaukee’s needs on the pitching staff received the lion’s share of attention headed into the offseason, which was understandable following staff ace Jimmy Nelson’s shoulder surgery. But the Brew Crew also had some fairly notable needs on the offensive end of the spectrum as well. The Brewers did hit the seventh-most homers in MLB last year, but they nonetheless ranked 20th in the Majors in runs scored. Their collective output against lefties (.248/.321/.413, 89 wRC+) ranked 24th in the Majors, while their production against right-handers (.250/.323/.434, 94 wRC+) wasn’t dramatically better.

Lorenzo Cain

The Brewers’ primary means of bolstering the offense came in effectively swapping out Keon Broxton for Lorenzo Cain, who inked the third-largest contract of any position player this offseason and the fourth-largest overall at five years and $80MM. Milwaukee also shipped out a four-player package headlined by Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison to acquire a whopping five seasons of Christian Yelich — all of which figure to be prime years.

The outfield, of course, didn’t look like a huge need for the Brewers on paper, and it’s arguable that it wasn’t a need at all. However, manager Craig Counsell should have around 2600 to 2700 plate appearances to divide up primarily between Cain, Yelich, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Eric Thames in a rotation of players in the outfield at at first base (where Braun and Thames will factor most prominently).

Christian Yelich

The depth allows Thames (.182/.270/.394 vs. lefties in 2017) to be platooned, and the group of Cain, Braun, Santana and occasional first baseman Jesus Aguilar gives Counsell plenty of possibilities versus lefties. The club has also held onto righty-swinging first bagger Ji-Man Choi after his eye-opening spring, though he’s currently on optional assignment. Plus, Broxton and Brett Phillips are both still on hand as outfield options should injuries necessitate. That level of depth is hard to find throughout the league.

That’s not to say, either, that the Brewers didn’t address their pitching staff at all. Jhoulys Chacin has quietly been a quality arm for the Angels and Padres over the past two seasons. It’s a bit too rudimentary to say Chacin needs to prove he can pitch outside of San Diego — his home/road splits were pronounced with the Halos as well — but he’ll certainly hope to pitch more consistently than over the past two seasons. The bottom-line results for Chacin have tended to even out in the end, though, and he’ll provide a veteran source of innings to an otherwise inexperienced rotation.

In the ’pen, the Brewers added quantity but did not join in on the Winter Meetings’ relief craze. With premium annual values and multi-year deals for setup men en vogue — the Rockies led the way with more than $100MM worth of bullpen spending — the Brewers went the opposite route. Matt Albers was a late sign at a more traditionally expected rate and will look to prove to his doubters that last year’s brilliant season with the Nats was no fluke. Dan Jennings was a late-Spring steal at $750K, and he’ll pair with veteran Boone Logan (once healthy) and exciting youngster Josh Hader to give Counsell the left-handed depth he sorely lacked in 2017. (Yovani Gallardo was also signed to a non-guaranteed deal, but he didn’t make the cut out of Spring Training.)

Questions Remaining

The common belief once the Brewers acquired Yelich and Cain within mere hours of one another was that the front office would use its newfound outfield depth to trade for a rotation upgrade. Rumors persisted throughout the offseason, and Milwaukee remained connected to the likes of Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb throughout their respective time on the open market. In the end, though, Chacin was the lone rotation addition outside of a minor league deal for Wade Miley, who figures to get some starts for the Brewers once he recovers from a groin injury after showing well this spring.

With Nelson out until midseason, then, Milwaukee’s rotation will consist of Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Chacin and a combination of Brent Suter, Junior Guerra, Brandon Woodruff and, eventually, Miley. Clearly, it’s a group that is rife with uncertainty. Anderson and Davies impressed in 2017, and Chacin should be serviceable, but the rest of the group is less certain. Guerra had a nightmarish 2017 season, while Suter and Woodruff lack much in the way of a big league track record. Miley pitched poorly enough in 2016-17 that he had to settle for a minor league deal despite a history of durability.

Brewers fans and onlookers wondered for the final several months of the winter when Stearns and his staff were going to make some kind of splash on the pitching market, but in retrospect, perhaps the opportunity for a meaningful upgrade on the trade front never materialized. Corner outfielders aren’t exactly in high demand these days, as both the trade and free-agent markets in the past couple of seasons have made abundantly clear.

Santana had a nice season, to be sure, but being a 30-homer bat in a season that saw 74 players swat 25+ big flies doesn’t hold the same appeal as being a 30-homer bat would’ve been even three years prior. Add in a 31 percent career strikeout rate, and it’s plenty plausible that the offers for him simply didn’t include a rotation piece of note. Broxton and Phillips both have significant strikeout issues, and Phillips’ big year was at least somewhat fueled by BABIPs north of .400 in the Majors and the minors. The Brewers undoubtedly could’ve added some depth via trade, but if they felt that the best the market had to offer was arms with similar uncertainty to the ones they already possessed, then the lack of a deal is more justifiable.

As far as free agency goes, a match with any of the big four starters seemed plenty plausible on paper, even as far back as November. Milwaukee never seemed keen on beating the market for one of the top arms, however, with the possible exception of Darvish, who instead went to the Cubs on what would’ve been a record deal for the Brewers.

It’s somewhat of a surprise that Milwaukee seemingly didn’t play for Lynn, even when his market dipped to the point where he could be had on a one-year deal. The Brewers, after all, would’ve only been required to punt a third-round pick to sign Lynn, as they’d already surrendered a second-round pick in order to sign Cain earlier in the winter. Lynn’s strikeout, walk and home-run rates in 2017 were all questionable in 2017, but the Milwaukee rotation would still look more solid with him penciled into the middle.

Elsewhere on the diamond, the Brewers looked to be a quality landing spot for Neil Walker, who thrived in Milwaukee following a trade from the Mets last season. There were longstanding rumors connecting the Crew to Ian Kinsler as well, but he went to the Angels while Walker landed on a one-year, $4MM deal with the Yankees. Milwaukee had already re-signed Eric Sogard, but they’ll now lean on the same mix of Sogard, Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez that was shaky enough to prompt last August’s trade for Walker in the first place. If 2016 Villar resurfaces, all will be fine. But for a team that stockpiled depth so substantially in the outfield, it’s curious that the Brewers wouldn’t bring Walker back into the fold at a fairly minimal cost. It won’t be a surprise if they’re on the hunt for second base help again in two months’ time.

Overview

Milwaukee’s offense, defense and overall outfield depth should be drastically improved with the additions of Cain and Yelich on long-term commitments. Those two acquisitions should help to deepen the lineup and create a more complete offense than last year’s deceptively home-run-dependent unit. It’s fair to wonder how Cain will hold up into his age-36 campaign, but those questions exist with any long-term deal for a position player. Though second base could eventually be an issue for the club, that’s a position that’ll be fairly easy to address on the trade market if the past couple of years are any indication.

For the 2018 Brewers, the rotation will be the main focus of fans and critics alike. Pundits widely opined that the team was making a misstep by not making further additions. I’m of the mind that, except for a late one-year deal for Lynn that would’ve made some sense, the Brewers’ lack of activity was largely justifiable given that the supply of available outfielders dampened the value of their potential trade chips and given the prices for the other top free agents. But if the group they have in place right now falters and/or Nelson takes longer than anticipated to return, the Brewers will be in the market for rotation help this summer and forced to field questions as to why that need wasn’t more thoroughly addressed in the winter.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series. Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The early-offseason buzz on the Padres’ possible interest in adding an impact player came to fruition when Eric Hosmer inked the biggest contract in franchise history. They had also reportedly shown some interest in top free agent pitchers Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb. While the addition of Hosmer isn’t expected to turn the Padres into an immediate contender — nor would’ve the signing of Arrieta or Cobb, for that matter — it’s another step towards building the organization’s next playoff-caliber roster.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Padres 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Padres Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

The Padres still believe that Wil Myers can take a step forward and live up to the $83MM contract he signed last offseason. And it’s not a stretch, either. He’s averaged 29 homers and 24 stolen bases over the past two seasons and he’s only 27 years old. But he wasn’t comfortable in the role of clubhouse leader, which is partly why the team decided to pursue Hosmer, who filled that role on a Royals team that had a successful three-year run that included back-to-back World Series appearances and a championship.

Valuing Hosmer was a topic of ample debate as his trip onto the open market drew near. Ultimately, the Pads and Royals decided he was worthy of a significant investment despite the fact that he’s not an overwhelming offensive force for a first baseman. Age (he’s just 28) plainly played a big role along with Hosmer’s oft-lauded makeup. Nobody questions that Hosmer is a quality big leaguer, and the hefty guarantee is spread over a lengthy term, but this type of signing always represents a notable risk for a lower-budget team.

In addition to Hosmer, the team solidified the left side of its infield by trading for Galvis and Headley. Neither is likely to deliver huge output over the full course of the season, but they’re both steady veterans who will raise the overall standard and provide a benchmark for the team’s youthful assets to measure themselves again. It’s certainly possible that either player could end up on the move over the summer.

The core of the bullpen — a unit compiled smartly from some unlikely places — remains intact. Craig Stammen, a successful reclamation project in 2017, was re-signed to a two-year deal over the winter. He’ll be joined by veteran Japanese hurler Kazuhisa Makita, who also signed an affordable multi-year pact.

Most notably, though, the Padres decided to keep closer Brad Hand off of the trade block. It had long seemed he’d be moved — it was rather shocking it didn’t happen last summer — after coming out of nowhere to become one of the game’s better high-leverage relievers over the past two seasons. While the potential to plug more young talent into the system was surely tantalizing, the team smartly took advantage of an opportunity to achieve value by investing further in Hand. The extension gives the organization control through the 2021 season at what looks to be quite an appealing rate for a high-quality closer that had already reached arbitration.

Filling out the rotation remained a need even after a late-season move to extend Clayton Richard. The Headley swap was designed primarily to bring in Bryan Mitchell, who has a big arm and will be given a chance to sink or swim in the majors. Veteran Chris Young lost a spring battle to make the staff, but old friend Tyson Ross opened some eyes in camp and has continued to show well early in the season. While the loss of intriguing youngster Dinelson Lamet has put a damper on things, the impressive arrival of 2016 fourth-rounder Joey Lucchesi has created some excitement in the early going. Robbie Erlin’s return after two seasons mostly lost to injury is also worth watching. He opened with some success in the pen and has now moved into the rotation, though his first start (just this evening) did not go as hoped.

Questions Remaining

Along with Hosmer and Myers, catcher Austin Hedges and center fielder Manuel Margot are all but locked in at their respective positions for the next several seasons. The team’s future double-play combination is expected to be made up of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias. Two of the best prospects in the game, both are on the fast track to San Diego, though they’ll have to earn their way up before being anointed. A lot can happen in one season, but it’s easy to imagine that group of players in the same lineup at some point in 2019. That would leave just two future lineup spots, third base and corner outfield, unsettled.

In all likelihood, the corner outfield spot opposite Myers will likely be filled internally by one or more of Franchy Cordero, Jose Pirela and Hunter Renfroe. All three will have a chance to make their case in 2018. Cordero, who dazzled at Triple-A in 2017 with his speed-power combination, did not join the competition right away after opening the year on the DL. But with Margot hitting the shelf with an early injury, Cordero has received a chance and is off to a nice start.

While the return of Headley gives the Padres some stability at the hot corner for at least the next few months, the team’s third baseman during their next window of contention is probably not in the organization at this time. A reunion between Hosmer and Moustakas, who could reach free agency once again next offseason, is intriguing. Filling the spot in-house is a slight possibility, although it would probably take a breakout season from second baseman Carlos Asuaje to convince the team to alter their plans for where Urias and Tatis end up on the diamond. A strong performance from Galvis, who the team could look to re-sign after the season, could also shake things up.

With an abundance of talented pitching prospects who could reach the Majors sometime over the next 2-3 seasons, the Padres are in great shape to fill out their pitching staff without having to add significantly to their payroll. Left-hander Eric Lauer should join Lucchesi at some point in 2018, while the next wave should be ready to make an impact next season. In the meantime, Erlin, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Perdomo will have every opportunity to prove that they can be a part of the rotation for years to come. Lamet will be counted on to reenter the picture at some point in 2019.

Overview

Hosmer is entering a situation that should seem like very familiar territory. As a highly-touted Royals prospect, he made his MLB debut in 2011. He was surrounded by talented young players, including Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez. There was a lot of hype surrounding this group, which only made it more frustrating for the fan base when the team suffered its eighth consecutive losing season. And then a ninth. That this group of players would help lead the team to 86 wins by 2013, their first post-season appearance in 19 years in 2014, and a World Series title in 2015, made it all the more special.

This Padres team is in the midst of — you guessed it — seven consecutive losing seasons. The streak is almost certain to reach eight. But they have the resources to turn things around quickly. Their farm system was ranked third in baseball by both Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law, while Baseball Prospectus ranked it first. General manager A.J. Preller has done a terrific job stockpiling young talent and still has payroll flexibility even after committing to Myers and Hosmer.

Signing Hosmer was not a pure win-now move, as he’s young enough to contribute for years to come. But it did represent a strong signal of the organization’s near-term aspirations. The organization’s first major outside acquisition since its failed gambit at producing a contender in Preller’s first year in town, Hosmer is evidently a believer. As I wrote in the Padres’ Offseason Outlook back in November, “If he’s convinced that the Padres are a team on the rise and on a road to contend by 2019, he could be willing to sign on.”

He signed on. I guess that means he thinks they can contend next season. But there’s still plenty of work to be done to fully establish a new winning core in San Diego.

How do you grade the Padres’ offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

By | at

After a 78-84 finish to their 2017 season, the Rangers came out of the gates in aggressive fashion but ultimately wound up with a series of low-risk, buy-low pickups that leave the club in limbo.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Rangers entered the 2017-18 offseason with holes up and down their roster –particularly on the pitching staff — and a sizable gap between their overall talent level and that of the division-winning, World Series champion Astros. Rather than spend aggressively in what could largely have been a futile effort to return to the top of the AL West, Texas instead spread out a modest array of investments across multiple budget-friendly assets.

Mike Minor was the lone big-ticket item signed by GM Jon Daniels & Co. — if one can refer to a $28MM guarantee as “big ticket.” (Although, certainly this offseason, that was no small amount as clubs veered away from free agency at unprecedented rates.) Minor shined as a dominant reliever in the Kansas City bullpen last season, but the Rangers are plugging him into their rotation to see if he can sustain some of that magic in the larger role that originally got him to the Majors with Atlanta. If the experiment doesn’t pan out, then the three-year, $28MM term isn’t exactly a bargain for a reliever, but it’s also more or less commensurate with the going rate for top-notch setup men in 2018.

Doug Fister and Matt Moore were the other primary additions to the starting mix, as the Rangers will be paying that duo a combined $13MM in hopes of receiving something resembling 25 to 33 serviceable starts out of each. Moore is coming off far and away the worst season of his career, while Fister posted an ugly 2017 ERA but more intriguing secondary metrics thanks in large part to some restored velocity. They’ll be part of a patchwork rotation in Arlington that is fronted by 34-year-old Cole Hamels and also includes southpaw Martin Perez. The addition of veterans like Colon and Chavez were made in the name of creating some depth, but it was clear to see even before a tough start to the season that this piecemeal approach to the staff could be problematic.

Of course, that’s not to say that the Rangers didn’t pursue more meaningful rotation upgrades. Texas was one of seven finalists in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. They not only came up short, though, but also had to suffer the additional frustration of watching the 23-year-old sensation sign with the division-rival Angels. Texas also remained on the periphery of the Yu Darvish market all offseason long, though it seemed clear for the bulk of his free agency that the Rangers would only bring him back at a discounted rate as they sought to scale back the payroll.

Texas has had good success in the past in tapping into the NPB market, and their signing of righty Chris Martin to a two-year big league deal was the latest attempt to strike gold. Martin didn’t distinguish himself in his first few attempts at the big league level, but he was a dominant late-inning arm overseas. At a $2MM annual rate, if he’s even a serviceable middle reliever, the Rangers will come out ahead. If he’s anything more, it’s a massive bargain, and if not, there’s little fiscal risk at play here. The reunion with Barnette and the roll of the dice on Lincecum give skipper Jeff Banister another pair of arms to shuffle around the late-inning mix, provided Lincecum builds up strength and overcomes the blister issue he’s currently facing.

Questions Remaining

As alluded to above, the pitching staff looked shaky, at best, heading into the 2018 season. Hamels’ velocity is down early in the year, while Fister is on the DL with what the club hopes will be a short-term injury. Even if all of Hamels, Perez, Fister, Minor and Moore were healthy, the Rangers would’ve needed some significant rebounds to field a competitive starting unit.

The fact that they’re being backed by a bullpen which cycled through four closers last season and struggled for much of the 2017 season doesn’t create much additional optimism. Granted, the Ranger relief corps will be significantly better in 2018 if Jake Diekman and Keone Kela can stay healthy, but Texas added nothing in the way of established bullpen help this winter. The Rangers will have to lean heavily on Kela, Diekman, Matt Bush and Alex Claudio. If any of that bunch falters and/or Martin can’t approach his NPB success to some extent, it could be a long year for the Texas bullpen.

The catcher position was also a question for Texas for much of the offseason and remains as such. Robinson Chirinos undeniably had a nice season last year when he hit .255/.350/.506 with a career-high 17 home runs, but he’s never tallied more than 338 plate appearances in a season. The 33-year-old has dealt with concussion, shoulder and forearm issues in previous seasons. Backup Juan Centeno has never reached 200 PAs in a season and has only logged more than 10 MLB games in a season twice. Texas seemed like a logical fit for a backstop like Alex Avila or Chris Iannetta, who each signed for about $4MM annually, but they passed to stick with in-house options and dealt away one minor league depth piece (Brett Nicholas) shortly after Opening Day.

With Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre lined up around the infield and Jurickson Profar on hand as a utility option, the Rangers looked to be set there. (The depth will now be tested after early-season injuries to Odor and Andrus.) The outfield, though, was perhaps a different story, but the Rangers elected to primarily stick with in-house options. Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo, Ryan Rua and Willie Calhoun were expected to be leaned upon heavily in the outfield/DH carousel, with Drew Robinson and the aforementioned Rule 5 pickup, Tocci, serving as additional depth. Mazara’s ceiling is enormous, but there again seemed to be an opportunity to capitalize on a stagnant market for outfielders which the Rangers forewent. Choosing not to break the bank is understandable, but it was a bit of a surprise to see players such as Jon Jay and Carlos Gomez come off the board for just $3MM and $4MM, respectively, when so many teams, the Rangers included, seemed like clear fits.

That’s perhaps the most glaring oddity of the entire offseason for the Rangers. While they elected to patch together a pitching staff of buy-low candidates and spare-part depth options, Texas decision-makers wholly avoided making any meaningful additions on the position-player side of the equation despite some fairly evident openings to do so behind the plate and in the outfield.

It’d be one thing to see the Rangers sit out in terms of additions if they were among the league’s many tanking teams, but they still spent nearly $40MM on the pitching staff. If the goal was to try to piece together a team with a chance at contending in a stacked division, then why not take advantage of a buyers’ market for position players? And if the 2018 season is to be more of a transitional campaign in which the club aims to pare back its payroll, was a $28MM investment in Minor a shrewd move? It’s possible that Minor could lead a surprising pitching staff in Arlington or turn into an appealing trade asset if things go south for the rest of the roster, but the manner in which the Rangers approached the construction of their pitching staff and their lineup/bench seem to be somewhat contradictory in nature.

Texas looked like a plausible midseason seller even before the season began, but with a 4-10 start and several key injuries already having unfolded, those rumblings will only intensify. Any of the shorter-term pickups they made this offseason could become available if the Rangers are out of contention. The same is true of Hamels, though they may have a hard time acquiring much in return given his age, the $22MM he’s owed this season (plus at least the $6MM buyout he’s owed on next year’s $20MM option). The more interesting question, if Texas is out of the race, will be whether they send franchise icon and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre to another organization.

Overview

The Rangers came out of the gates in fairly aggressive fashion this offseason. Before the Winter Meetings had even kicked off, Texas had added some depth to the rotation by acquiring Herrera from the Yankees and quickly signing both Fister and Minor by Dec. 4. All of that, of course, coincided with a spirited pursuit of Ohtani that ultimately fell short, and the Rangers curbed their activity from that point forth.

Perhaps the offseason would’ve played out differently had Texas been able to add Ohtani to the mix, but in retrospect, the maneuverings add up to a fairly puzzling half-measure. Texas doesn’t look like a team that’s built to contend, but they also didn’t place an emphasis on restocking the farm this offseason. At a time when teams seem increasingly reluctant to be caught in the middle, the Rangers find themselves precisely there.

How would you rate their offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Nationals 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Nationals Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

Another great regular season, another postseason disappointment. The refrain is familiar at this point for the Nationals, though it’s also far from clear that there was any reason to waver from an approach that has delivered a steady stream of MLB talent since the organization’s breakout 2012 season.

The latest NLDS calamity did not lead to a roster shake-up, unsurprisingly, but it did result in wholesale change in the field leadership. A largely unexpected decision not to pursue a new contract with skipper Dusty Baker left the organization searching for a new manager and coaching staff. The Nationals ultimately settled on Davey Martinez — who, like several other recent hires, he has never before held that role. Among the rookie skippers, though, Martinez stands out for his ample experience on MLB coaching staffs — particularly, a long run alongside current Cubs and former Rays manager Joe Maddon.

Once Martinez was installed, the Nats did not have a lot of work to do over the winter. Veteran outfielder Jayson Werth wrapped up his contract, but there was no need to find a replacement with Adam Eaton returning from the knee injury that cost him most of the 2017 season, Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin coming off of productive campaigns, and top prospect Victor Robles waiting in the wings after briefly ascending to the bigs late last year.

Otherwise, the club saw a few role players hit the open market. The resulting openings were steadily addressed by free agent signings throughout the course of the winter.

The two most significant players to depart — mid-season acquisitions Brandon Kintzler and Howie Kendrick — were both brought back, in fact, after successful showings in D.C. Kintzler, who makes up for his lack of strikeout prowess with loads of groundballs, will rejoin Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in a late-inning unit that the club lined up entirely via trade last summer. The price tag seems fairly appealing in comparison to the slightly loftier deals given to similarly useful relievers. Kendrick, too, was picked up for a low-AAV, two-year agreement. The sturdy veteran will help the team cover for the early-season absence of Daniel Murphy at second before sliding into a utility role.

Beyond those two spots, the most glaring holes were a lefty bench bat to replace Adam Lind and a second backstop to go with Matt Wieters, who exercised his player option after a poor first season in Washington.The club elected not to pursue a reunion with Lind, instead adding the younger Matt Adams. Much like his predecessor, Adams has never figured out left-handed pitching, but won’t be asked to do so in D.C. as he fulfills a supporting role to Ryan Zimmerman at first. Behind the dish, the Nationals picked up veteran Miguel Montero on a minors deal rather than striking a more significant acquisition.

Pitching depth was the last piece of the puzzle, with Matt Albers, Joe Blanton, and Oliver Perez all departing and the final rotation spot still up in the air. While there were whispers all along that the Nationals could use their remaining openings to fit a more significant acquisition — Jake Arrieta, Greg Holland, and any number of hypothetical trade candidates seemed intriguing — that never came to pass. Rather, the organization took something of a volume approach. Jeremy Hellickson signed a minors deal and will likely get a shot as the fifth starter if A.J. Cole stumbles. The aging but hard-throwing Joaquin Benoit got a small guarantee to fill out the pen, but will open the year on the DL. Plenty of other former MLB arms will populate the upper minors, including former Nats Edwin Jackson and Tom Milone along with Carlos Torres, Cesar Vargas, and Tim Collins.

But the Nats saved perhaps their most significant move for last. Just days into the 2018 season, the organization announced a long-anticipated new contract with president of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo. The agreement puts an end to any speculation that the ownership group might turn elsewhere. Despite Rizzo’s success in turning out a contending product, the organization’s handling of its managers had created a bit of uncertainty in Rizzo’s status. While it’s resolved for the time being, the deal only promises two more seasons, so questions could start up again sooner than later.

Questions Remaining

Ultimately, Rizzo took a fairly straightforward approach to filling out the roster this offseason. On the one hand, that’s largely to be expected given the state of affairs at its outset. On the other, perhaps it’s somewhat surprising that we weren’t surprised. Rizzo, after all, has engineered a string of moves over the years — including a variety of offseason signings (Werth, Jackson, Rafael Soriano, and Scherzer) and trades (Doug Fister, Trea Turner & Joe Ross, Eaton) — that were largely unanticipated before coming to fruition.

Given that history, and the run of playoff woes, a splash of some kind felt likely. While there’s still evidently no resolution to the team’s long-running TV rights fees dispute with the neighboring Orioles, that hasn’t stopped the organization from running one of the game’s highest payrolls. The Nationals are over the luxury tax line again (so there was no soft cap on spending) but are only slightly over the threshold at this point, so wouldn’t have incurred a huge tax bill with a major salary addition.

Though there’s ample talent on hand, the roster certainly isn’t without its question marks. Two key position players, Eaton and Murphy, are returning from significant leg surgeries. Zimmerman had a great bounceback 2017 effort but can’t be counted on to repeat it given that he’s now 33 and had struggled a fair bit (both with injuries and on the field) over the three prior campaigns. Turner wasn’t nearly as exciting in his sophomore effort, while some regression might be anticipated for Anthony Rendon after an MVP-caliber ’17 campaign. And it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Taylor and/or Goodwin stumble a bit — both have more than a little swing and miss in their games — though that’s the one place that there’s an obvious potential replacement (Robles) to be called upon.

That said, there really wasn’t much cause for the Nats to go out looking for upgrades in any of these situations. Behind the plate, though, it’s quite another matter. Matt Wieters struggled badly last year and ultimately opted in for another season at an unappealing rate of pay. Pedro Severino has long been considered ready defensively but has not made strides with the bat at Triple-A. While the organization brought in another veteran in Montero, there are obviously reasons — inability to control the running game and an awful second half at the plate — that he was available on a minors pact.

That unit seems unlikely to be terribly productive. While youngster Raudy Read touched the majors last year and might have become an option, he’s sitting out the first half of the year for a PED suspension. The Nats ultimately watched as a string of receivers — Welington Castillo, Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, and Jonathan Lucroy among them — sign for less than they’re paying Wieters. There was an effort to acquire J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins, who made all kinds of sense for the Nats, though it seems the Fish held to their lofty asking price and nothing got done.

The result is sub-optimal and could set the stage for a mid-season acquisition. Of course, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Nats end up pursuing a relief arm over the summer, as that has become an annual rite in D.C. and is fairly common for any contending team. The Nationals pen doesn’t seem to be a particularly compelling group, though there is a fair amount of depth and the three-man high-leverage unit is at least settled to open the year. An argument could have been made to pursue further relief additions, though the team chose a defensible course. It’ll have a few months to evaluate some of the interesting but inconsistent or not-yet-established arms in the stable.

Speaking of evaluating arms, that’ll also be the team’s preferred method of dealing with its fifth starter’s slot. Cole is first up, and he’ll need to make real strides after a putrid first outing on the year. If he doesn’t show quite a lot in short order, Hellickson will take the helm once he’s at full speed. With prospect Erick Fedde and some veteran depth options still also in the mix, the Nats ought to be able to get by well enough.

The overall rotation mix is still strong, led by two outstanding starters in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Then there’s Tanner Roark, who is a quality hurler. And let’s not look past Gio Gonzalez, whose volatile reputation is belied by his steady effectiveness. Last year’s 200-inning, sub-3.00 ERA output won’t likely be repeated, but Gonzalez has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s best starters for quite some time and is a solid bet to provide good innings.

Still, it feels as if there may have been an opportunity missed here. True, the Nats can still go get a premium starter at the deadline if they feel there’s a need. Like the catching position, though, the best time to find an upgrade might have been during the course of a strange free-agent market that left quite a few significant players earning less than had been anticipated. Waiting until the deadline is also something of a luxury reserved for teams that don’t face real competition within their division. After bringing in some veterans and enjoying good health all spring, the Mets seem to be revived and may well put up a greater fight than had been expected.

Overview

Adding quality veteran bench assets was both predictable and sensible. Those moves should help the Nats fill in for any major absences and help ensure that the team’s regulars get plenty of rest without a drop-off in play. But the winter effort somehow feels a bit incomplete.

After all, this is the club’s last season of control over star outfielder Bryce Harper. Unless there’s a well-guarded extension effort underway — as there was, successfully, for Strasburg — he’ll hit the open market at season’s end. While the Nats will be among the likeliest suitors for Harper, it’s far from certain he’ll be back.

It’s somewhat surprising, then, that the team didn’t find a way to make another big addition, whether in the rotation or, especially, behind the plate. Having already pushed past the luxury tax line, spending a big more wouldn’t have had any impact on future spending plans. And this organization has already shed a fair bit of young talent in recent years — pitchers, especially — while trying to build around its core. Spending cash seems generally preferable to coughing up trade capital over the summer, but the latter will be required if an impact move is needed.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

By | at

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click hereto read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Twins had a quiet winter in the 2016-17 offseason under newly hired chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine, but Minnesota’s new executive duo was much more aggressive following last season’s surprise Wild Card berth.

Major League Signings

  • Addison Reed, RHP: Two years, $16.75MM
  • Lance Lynn, RHP: One year, $12MM
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: Two years, $10MM
  • Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: One year, $6.5MM (plus 2019 vesting option)
  • Fernando Rodney, RHP: One year, $4.5MM
  • Zach Duke, LHP: One year, $2.15MM
  • Anibal Sanchez, RHP: One year, $2.5MM (Sanchez’s salary was not guaranteed. The Twins released him and paid him $419K in termination pay in Spring Training upon signing Lynn)
  • Total spend: $52.3MM

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll]

Needs Addressed

The Twins boast a homegrown core of position players, with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco all being drafted/signed and developed by the organization and all under control for another four-plus seasons. With that group in place, plus veterans Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Jason Castro penciled into the lineup, the emphasis for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office was understandably on pitching.

In 2017, Twins starters collectively ranked 19th in the Majors with a 4.73 ERA, 23rd with a 4.85 FIP and 27th with a 4.92 xFIP. Equally damning, the Twins ranked 24th in baseball with 869 2/3 innings from their rotation despite the fact that Ervin Santana was one of just 15 pitchers to top 200 innings (and one of only two in all of baseball to top 210 frames). In fact, if you subtract the contributions of Santana and Jose Berrios from the 2017 Twins, their starters logged a disastrous 5.55 ERA.

Jake Odorizzi | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota has help on the near horizon in the form of top 100 prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, but as a club with postseason aspirations, they never seemed likely to rely solely on in-house options. Minnesota made a strong run at Yu Darvish, reportedly offering him a contract worth $100MM+ before he ultimately signed a six-year deal with the Cubs. It was apparent back in November that the Twins were poised to spend at a much more aggressive rate than we’ve historically seen, but it nonetheless felt a bit unusual to see them in the mix for the market’s top free agent right until the close of bidding.

A finger injury to Ervin Santana, which required surgery and will shelve him for at least the month of April, only exacerbated the club’s need to add arms to the rotation. Minnesota capitalized on the Rays’ need to cut payroll and a stagnant free-agent market to acquire Jake Odorizzi on the cheap and to sign Lance Lynn to a one-year, $12MM deal that seemed unthinkable just four months prior.

While both Odorizzi and Lynn are likely mid-rotation arms, at best, they’ll play a critical role in stabilizing the starting staff — especially now that Santana’s injury may sideline him longer than initially had been hoped. Odorizzi is controllable through the 2019 season, and while Lynn will presumably depart after his lone season in Minneapolis, he can potentially be replaced by Michael Pineda, whom the Twins guaranteed $10MM with an eye toward their 2019 rotation.

The bullpen, too, was in dire need of augmentation. Minnesota relievers ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.40 ERA last season and weren’t any better in terms of FIP (4.50, 23rd) or xFIP (4.49, 22nd). Beyond that, the departure of veteran Matt Belisle, who quietly rebounded from a dismal month of May to post terrific numbers down the stretch, only thinned out the relief unit.

Addison Reed looked poised to secure at least a three-year pact in free agency, but his market stalled a bit. While relievers were flying off the board and cashing in on significant annual paydays at the Winter Meetings — the relief market was the one facet of free agency that was mostly healthy this winter — Reed remained unsigned. Roughly a month later, he inked a surprising two-year deal with the Twins, though he’s openly acknowledged that geographic limitations impacted his market. Specifically, Reed had his sights set on signing with a team in the Midwest, he told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier last month.

The Twins also brought in a pair of veterans on affordable one-year deals, inking Fernando Rodney to serve as the closer and Zach Duke to help counteract opposing lefties. While Rodney had a characteristic up-and-down season with the D-backs last year, his velocity and ability to miss bats held strong. Bringing him in to work the ninth inning frees up the Twins to use their best relievers — Reed and 2017 breakout rookie Trevor Hildenberger — more flexibly in high-leverage setup spots.

Logan Morrison | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Despite a clear need for pitching, though, the Twins had one spot in their lineup that looked questionable. Minnesota designated hitters combined for just a .237/.328/.383 slash last season, and for much of the winter it looked as if OBP-challenged slugger Kennys Vargas and light-hitting on-base machine Robbie Grossman would receive the bulk of the duties there.

A match with Logan Morrison looked more and more like an on-paper fit as the slugger’s market failed to develop, though, and the Twins were able to scoop him up at a reasonable rate for the 2018 season. If Morrison can come anywhere close to last year’s .353 OBP and 38 homers, the Twins will be happy to see his $8MM option vest.

Questions Remaining

For as much as Minnesota accomplished this offseason, there are still plenty of questions surrounding the club. Odorizzi and Lynn are quality additions to the rotation at a reasonable price, but the starting unit as a whole still looks shaky — especially without Santana’s consistency. Jose Berrios tossed his first career shutout to kick off what the Twins hope will be a breakout season, but he’s the team’s best shot at having a true upper-echelon pitcher. If he takes only a small step forward (or worse), then the collection of Berrios, Odorizzi, Lynn, Kyle Gibson and (eventually) Santana looks more like a collection of fourth starters than a legitimately competitive playoff rotation.

Odorizzi and Lynn have been much more than that in the past, but both pitchers saw their walk and home-run rates spike last season. Fielding-independent pitching metrics pegged both Lynn and Odorizzi’s actual run-prevention skills more than a full run worse than their otherwise appealing ERA totals. The Twins have plenty of options in the upper minors, and perhaps Gonsalves, Romero or a sleeper prospect will burst onto the scene and strengthen the group. But as it stands, the rotation looks improved but hardly overpowering.

Minnesota also received a tough blow late in Spring Training with the news that starting shortstop Jorge Polanco tested positive for a PED and will miss the first half of the season while serving an 80-game suspension. The former top 100 prospect had a huge second half last season and was being counted on as a significant factor in the team’s lineup. Instead, utility man Eduardo Escobar will get the lion’s share of reps at short to begin the year. Escobar packs more punch than most utility options, but he’s struggled to remain consistent. Light-hitting defensive specialist Ehire Adrianza will receive more at-bats as well in Polanco’s absence.

Questions persist throughout the young core of position players as well, though that reportedly didn’t stop the team from trying (without success) to broker some extensions. Can Buxton hit like he did over the final four and a half months of the 2017 season and truly establish himself as one of the American League’s star players? Is Rosario capable of repeating his 2017 power surge? Will Kepler figure out how to hit left-handed pitching or is he primarily a platoon option with above-average glovework? There was a cloud hanging over Sano’s head all offseason in the wake of troubling assault allegations brought forth by a former Twins photographer, though MLB deemed that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to issue a suspension. He’ll now need to put that past him and remain healthy for a full season for the first time in his young big league career.

Perhaps the greatest question facing the Twins, though, is what will become of Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer following the ’18 season. Both are set to hit free agency, and Dozier in particular sounded frustrated by the team’s lack of engagement in extension talks. The former eighth-round pick has broken out as a legitimate star in recent seasons but somewhat bluntly told reporters that the team doesn’t seem especially interested in talking long-term. Whether that’s because of Dozier’s asking price or because Minnesota is wary of his age and prefers to turn the middle infield over to Polanco and top prospect Nick Gordon (and, eventually, 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis) isn’t clear. But Dozier has very arguably become the face of this franchise, and the lack of extension talks already didn’t sit well with fans. He’ll assuredly receive a qualifying offer if he posts a typical season, which he’ll almost certainly reject. The question then will become if the Twins are willing to match the top open-market bid he receives.

The decision on Mauer, who quietly had a strong rebound season in 2017, is also difficult. The 35-year-old won’t break the bank in free agency considering the devaluation of corner bats, his age and his strong preference to remain in Minnesota — where he was born, raised and starred in high school before being drafted first overall in 2001. But the Twins have to weigh whether they’re better off retaining Mauer into his late 30s, even if it’s at a limited rate of pay, or instead turning things over to a younger player — be it Morrison or perhaps Sano, following a shift across the diamond.

Perhaps Mauer would sign on for a part-time role, but teams are increasingly reluctant to dedicate bench spots to players who can only fill one position on the diamond. Mauer has briefly dabbled in the outfield in the past, but he certainly won’t return to catching following the concussion issues that prompted his initial move to first base.

Overview

While their pursuit of the biggest fish in the free-agent pond didn’t prove fruitful, the Twins capitalized on the weak market for free agents as well or better than any team in the league and entered the 2018 campaign with a considerably deeper roster. They’ll play more than 50 games against the trio of the Tigers, Royals and White Sox as they chase the Indians for the AL Central crown. The weakness of the division alone should help the Twins to remain in the Wild Card race, but they’ll need some big steps forward from the likes of Berrios, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler and Sano to be a legitimate division threat.

That’s certainly possible, and if any of that group falters or falls to injury, the Twins will likely have the capacity to further stretch payroll and bolster the roster midseason. Taking on longer-term deals won’t be a major issue, as their long-term payroll ledger is among the cleanest in baseball (zero dollars guaranteed beyond 2019). Paired with a quality farm system and the aforementioned young core, the Twins look poised to be contenders in the Central for the foreseeable future as several of their rivals rebuild.

How do you think the offseason went for Minnesota? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.) 

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows FOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top