Archives for December 2016

10 Bounceback Pitcher Candidates Still Available In Free Agency

By Jeff Todd | December 28, 2016 at 11:20am CDT

By this point, the free agent market has thinned considerably, especially at its upper reaches. But there remain plenty of interesting players still available.

Looking through the list of unsigned players, one finds a number of recently high-performing pitchers who can likely be had on relatively (or very) modest deals. Achieving truly adequate pitching depth remains one of the game’s elusive pursuits, so there’s always opportunity for arms.

Here are some of the most intriguing names still available, featuring five starters and five relievers:

Tyson Ross: It came as a surprise when the Padres elected to non-tender Ross rather than paying him a repeat of his $9.6MM arbitration salary in his final season of eligibility, but that move leaves the 29-year-old available for other teams to take a risk. While organizations may prefer to attempt to secure multiple years of control if they roll the dice on the health of his ailing shoulder, Ross will no doubt prefer a single-season commitment. He carried a 3.07 ERA over 516 2/3 innings from 2013-15, so the upside is evident, and it’s no surprise that most of the league has some degree of interest.

Brett Anderson: Soon to turn 29, Anderson did not show well in his brief return from back surgery last year. But he turned in 180 1/3 frames of 3.69 ERA ball in 2015, and has generally been rather good when healthy, so there could still be something left in the tank. While Anderson’s extensive injury history is a major deterrent, organizations could reasonably hope that he can at least provide some useful innings during whatever stretch he is able to contribute.

Doug Fister: Entering his age-33 season after two straight duds, it’s tough to view Fister in quite the same light that one could have a year ago, when he seemed like a solid bounceback bet. That being said, he isn’t far removed from being a quality mid-rotation starter, and was at least able to turn in 32 starts in a healthy 2016 season. Unlike the other pitchers on this list, there isn’t an immediate injury to blame for the diminished value, though perhaps that also means he comes with a greater expectation of near-term contribution. If Fister can restore some of his lost groundball luster, perhaps he’d again rate as a useful rotation piece.

Nathan Eovaldi: Teams won’t be able to expect anything out of Eovaldi in 2017, as he’s expected to miss the entire year after Tommy John surgery. But he hasn’t even turned 27 and did show a personal-best 97.0 mph average fastball and 9.3% swinging-strike rate in 2016, so he remains an intriguing candidate to receive a rehab-and-return contract.

Henderson Alvarez: The long-term health outlook is perhaps even cloudier in the case of Alvarez, who couldn’t make it back to the majors in 2016 from shoulder issues. But he, too, has yet to reach his 27th birthday and he was able to provide 187 innings of 2.65 ERA ball as recently as 2014. And Alvarez did make 11 minor-league appearances last year, so there’s at least some reason to hope that he can contribute in the season to come.

Greg Holland: An obvious candidate for this list, Holland is perhaps the most fascinating relief arm still left unsigned. Once one of the game’s most dominant pitchers, the 31-year-old figures to sign with expectations of a full 2017 campaign after finishing up his TJ rehab. Like Ross, Holland has drawn wide interest and ought to be able to generate a variety of interesting and relatively lucrative opportunities.

Luke Hochevar: Now far removed from an impressive 2013 season in which he successfully transitioned from struggling starter to late-inning pen arm, Hochevar will be attempting to return from thoracic outlet surgery (after missing 2014 due to a Tommy John procedure). There’s plenty of uncertainty in the outlook for the 33-year-old, but he did put up 9.6 K/9 against just 2.2 BB/9 while working to a 3.86 ERA over 37 1/3 innings in 2016, and could be expected to return early in 2017.

Drew Storen: Still just 29, Storen was an electric reliever as recently as 2015, when he posted 11.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 across 55 innings while working to a 3.44 ERA that metrics viewed as somewhat unfortunate. Though he struggled last year and showed a worrying drop in his average fastball velocity (from 94.1 mph in the season prior to 92.3 mph in 2016), Storen still put up a 10.5% swinging-strike rate that landed right at his career average. He also closed out the year by yielding just three runs in his final 17 innings while posting a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Aaron Barrett: After TJ surgery derailed his sophomore 2015 season, Barret’s return was cut short with an elbow fracture. On the other hand, Storen’s former pen mate in D.C. owns a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 over his 70 career MLB frames, with a 13.1% lifetime swinging-strike rate driven by his 93 to 94 mph heater and wipeout slider. Whatever team takes a shot on his future can also pick up plenty of affordable future control over Barrett, who’ll soon turn 29.

Charlie Furbush: Rotator cuff surgery is never good news for a pitcher, and returning from that procedure presents a major hurdle for the 30-year-old. But quality southpaws are always in high demand, so there’s much to be gained in the event that he can get back on track. Over his last 175 1/3 MLB frames, compiled over 2012 through 2015, Furbush provided the Mariners with a 3.23 ERA and 10.3 K/9 versus 3.0 BB/9.

Extension Candidate: Jake Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | December 28, 2016 at 9:14am CDT

The Cubs reportedly plan to discuss a new, long-term contract with star righty Jake Arrieta early in 2017. Prior talks failed to produce much apparent traction, but there’s new urgency if a deal is to be found. Arrieta, after all, will reach the open market after the season.

If nothing else, Chicago will need to sort out Arrieta’s final arbitration salary with agent Scott Boras. After a huge raise following his monster 2015 season, Arrieta took down $10.7MM last year. And though he wasn’t as good in 2016, there’s another hefty boost coming; MLBTR projects to earn a $16.8MM payday.

So, aside from nailing down that number, just what might the sides talk about when they sit down in the coming weeks? Expectations, perhaps, represent the most important ingredients in this particular extension scenario, because valuing Arrieta’s post-2017 seasons without the knowledge of his 2017 output is particularly difficult.

Arrieta’s story is well known, and need not be repeated in full here. Suffice to say, his career renaissance in Chicago has been spectacular and complete. Over 2014-15, the righty provided 358 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA pitching over 58 starts. He was dominant, especially, in the latter of those two seasons, when he posted 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 and allowed a league-low 5.9 hits per nine while spinning four complete games. After filling up 229 innings and taking home the National League Cy Young award, a course was set for a huge free-agent contract.

The early portion of 2016 largely represented a continuation; though his walk rate was up, the results remained dominant. By early June, though, the earned runs began to catch up as Arrieta’s typically excellent suppression of walks and home runs began faltering. Ultimately, he fell just shy of 200 innings and ended the year with a 3.10 ERA to go with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Beyond the jump in walk rate, Arrieta also paced the league with 16 wild pitches.

To be sure, all the signs weren’t concerning. Arrieta continued to induce grounders on about half of the balls put in play against him, didn’t show any worrying changes in velocity, mostly maintained his swinging-strike rate (10.5%, down from a personal best 11.1%), and continued to suppress BABIP in a consistent manner suggestive of skill, not merely good fortune. But hitters chased out of the zone slightly less frequently and made somewhat more hard contact in 2016, while also managing a few more home runs (16).

In the aggregate, Arrieta is still exceedingly difficult to square up and seems to be about as good a bet as anyone to deliver 200 or more innings from a health perspective. Even the less-dominant version is still a high-quality pitcher. Heck, he even managed to add real value with the bat last year (.262/.304/.415). And Arrieta showed up in the postseason — the World Series, especially, where he allowed just three earned runs on five hits over 11 1/3 innings in two starts.

Still, it’s hard to say that Arrieta’s current standing matches his status at this time last year. If Arrieta isn’t a true ace — which, at least, is in doubt — then the conversation is somewhat different. Valuing his future is more about projections and comps than it is a question of just how much a team can really spend on a single pitcher. And reaching agreement on an extension poses questions such as: Will the team will ascribe added value to the possibility of a return to full dominance? Will the player forego perhaps greater potential earnings to sell away the risk of another less-than-excellent (or worse) season?

If Arrieta isn’t a true ace, then pedestrian considerations such as age — he turns 31 in March of 2017, and will turn 32 before the start of the 2018 season — rise in importance. That means Arrieta will hit the market at nearly the same age (just a few months younger) as Zack Greinke did last winter. Greinke’s massive contract (six years, $206.5MM) isn’t exactly a bad sign for Arrieta, but it’s tough to see Chicago valuing the latter’s free-agent years as highly as the D-Backs did the former’s (over $34MM). That contract always seemed a reach, and came on the heels of Greinke’s historic 2015 season.

Perhaps a more reasonable current comp is pitching alongside Arrieta in the Cubs’ rotation. Jon Lester, who was a younger free agent than will be Arrieta, got $155MM over six years. But even that could be rich. Johnny Cueto, one of the game’s most accomplished hurlers, landed shy of Lester (six years, $130MM, albeit with an opt-out) heading into his age-30 season. His late-2015 scuffles — which weren’t, perhaps, all that dissimilar from Arrieta’s — seemed to put a real dent in his value.

The most direct comparables, of course, are drawn to players who sign extensions just before hitting the market. Stephen Strasburg got seven years and $175MM from the Nationals in the middle of the 2016 season. Before him, Homer Bailey took home $105MM over six seasons (including his arb year) from the Reds. Neither pitcher is a clean comp — Strasburg, due to age; Bailey, due to performance — but those deals are still illustrative. Strasburg’s signing, in particular, shows that an extension can’t be ruled out, even for a market-leading starter repped by Boras. Both contracts show the need for compromise as well as the inherent risk in a late-arb pitching extension. Injuries slowed both Strasburg and Bailey not long after their new deals were inked. In both of those cases, they wisely (in hindsight) sold away the chance at perhaps even greater earnings to lock in contracts with their existing organizations.

It is ultimately difficult to know whether there’s a realistic chance of the Cubs and Arrieta reaching a deal. The relative lack of upper-level, high-quality starting pitching prospects in the Chicago system suggests an ongoing need. And the Lester signing shows that the team will sign a long-term deal with a starter in the right circumstances. But it seems likely there’ll be some cap to the team’s willingness to add guaranteed years and boost the AAV in Arrieta’s case. Just where those lines will be drawn by both the team and its once (and future?) staff ace remain to be seen. Is Strasburg’s $25MM AAV a fair market point, perhaps over a shorter term? Does Cueto’s combination of a lower AAV and opt-out provide a guide? Or will Arrieta hold out for a chance to chase Greinke?

Just for kicks … let’s see how likely a deal is, in the estimation of MLBTR’s readers:

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Faceoff: Odubel Herrera vs. Ender Inciarte

By Jeff Todd | December 27, 2016 at 11:00pm CDT

The Phillies and Braves have been on remarkably similar paths this winter, seeking to boost near-term performance without jeopardizing their long-term rebuilding plans. Most notably, that has involved collecting veteran pieces (especially starters) on expensive, one-year deals.

While neither of the N.L. East rivals appear to be ready to add truly significant, long-term pieces via free agency, both were willing to make targeted investments to enhance their control over their own players this winter. Specifically, Philadelphia and Atlanta found common ground with their young center fielders, Odubel Herrera, who turns 25 on Thursday, and Ender Inciarte, who just turned 26.

It’s probably not entirely coincidental that the two pacts — struck within about a week of one another — were structured so similarly. Both players are in the 2+ service class, meaning they each already had four years of team control to go, though Inciarte had qualified as a Super Two. Instead, each player committed at least one would-be free-agent year to his team, in exchange for nearly identical guarantees: Herrera gets $30.5MM, Inciarte $30.525MM. The only meaningful difference came on the option front. The Phils can control Herrera for two more seasons (at $11.5MM and $12.5MM), while the Braves only get one additional year of control over Inciarte, but need pay him only $9MM to utilize it.

Of course, the two are hardly identical players. Herrera possesses a bigger bat, having produced at a 111 wRC+ rate over his first two MLB seasons, while Inciarte is more of a league-average hitter. Though both add value with their legs and gloves, the latter is the more accomplished in both regards. All things considered, both have established themselves as solidly above-average regulars and appear set to provide plenty of value to their respective employers over the duration of their new contracts.

Herrera arguably comes with greater upside, given the increasing power (and improved walk rate) he demonstrated last year. But you could also reasonably suggest that Inciarte’s superior value in other aspects of the game makes him a surer bet to remain a quality center fielder into his early thirties. So, just for fun, which player’s contract looks like the better bet? (Those using the Trade Rumors mobile app can weigh in here.)

Pirates Re-Sign Ivan Nova

By Mark Polishuk | December 27, 2016 at 8:15pm CDT

8:15pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets the financial breakdown of the deal. Nova receives a $2MM signing bonus and will take home $7MM in 2017 before earning salaries of $8.5MM in 2018 and $8.5MM in 2019.

12:30pm: The Pirates entered the offseason with uncertainty throughout their rotation but added some stability on Tuesday, announcing that they’ve re-signed right-hander Ivan Nova to a three-year contract. The deal reportedly guarantees Nova $26MM and allows the Legacy Agency client to earn up to an additional $2MM per year via incentives, meaning it can max out at $32MM over the three-year term.

[Updated Pirates roster and depth chart at Roster Resource]

The deal ensures that Nova, who turns 30 on January 12, will remain with the team that seemingly revived his career after he was dealt from the Yankees to the Pirates on August 1. Nova underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and had struggled to regain his old form since, with middling numbers in 2015 and then a 4.90 ERA over 97 1/3 innings (starting 15 of 21 games) with New York in 2016.

In Pittsburgh, however, Nova became the latest reclamation project to thrive under pitching coach Ray Searage. Nova posted a 3.06 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and an unreal 17.33 K/BB rate over 64 2/3 innings in a Pirates uniform, with just three walks against 52 strikeouts. The move to a less-friendly ballpark for home run hitters was also a boon to Nova, who had long struggled to keep the ball in the yard over his career. Always a strong ground-ball pitcher, Nova had a career-best 53.6% grounder rate over his 162 combined innings for both teams in 2016.

The stark contrast between the Yankees’ Nova and the Pirates’ Nova led to rather an interesting free agent case for the righty, as it wasn’t clear how teams would view that 64 2/3-inning sample against the rest of Nova’s career. MLBTR ranked Nova 10th on our list of the winter’s Top 50 free agents with a projection of a four-year, $52MM deal given the severe lack of quality starting pitching and J.A. Happ’s successful 2016 season serving as a model of how a Pirates revival project could thrive outside of PNC Park.

Instead, Nova rather surprisingly ended up signing for less guaranteed money than what Happ received (three years, $36MM) from the Blue Jays last winter despite being over four years younger. Looking at the big picture of this offseason, it seems that teams in general preferred to spend their pitching dollars on relievers as opposed to the thin starting piching market. As FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal points out, only three other starters (Rich Hill, Edinson Volquez and Charlie Morton) signed multi-year deals this winter. Even Jeremy Hellickson, thought to be the winter’s top available starter, accepted a qualifying offer to remain with the Phillies due to some concerns about his market, though Hellickson was rather a different case since he had draft pick compensation attached to his services.

Greg Genske, Nova’s agent, said in mid-November that his client had received offers in the three-year/$36MM range, though there was very little buzz about Nova on the rumor mill. The only club significantly linked to Nova was, in fact, Pittsburgh. The Pirates ardently tried to sign him to an extension prior to hitting free agency, though since Nova was reportedly asking for five years and $70MM to forego the open market, it isn’t surprising that the Bucs chose to wait. Nova stated that he wanted to remain with the Pirates, so it’s possible he could have turned down a slightly larger offer in order to stay in a familiar and comfortable environment.

It certainly looks like a good signing for the Pirates, who went into the offseason prioritizing run prevention via both improved pitching and defense. The Bucs add a veteran arm and (if Nova’s turn-around is for real) maybe even a possible ace to a young rotation headlined by Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, with Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow and Drew Hutchison battling it out for the final two rotation slots.

Robert Murray of FanRag Sports reported the agreement and the terms, while FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted word of the incentives in the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL Central Notes: Wong, Nova, Brewers, Reds

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2016 at 7:51pm CDT

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and manager Mike Matheny have both heaped praise onto second baseman Kolten Wong this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, further suggesting that the 26-year-old isn’t likely to be traded. Wong’s name surfaced in rumors earlier this winter and has come up in speculation that has been linked to St. Louis’ reported interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, but Mozeliak speaks highly of the former first-round pick. “I don’t make lineups but you have to have the understanding of patience,” said Mozeliak. “He’s such a talented defender and when your team is built around groundball pitching it’s nice to have that behind you.” Mozeliak and Matheny have both called Wong a “Gold Glove-caliber everyday second baseman,” Goold notes. Wong tells Goold that he’s trying his best to put a poor 2016 season behind him and has been working out with former teammate Jon Jay, focusing specifically on speed and explosiveness rather than adding muscle. Wong has $24.25MM remaining on the five-year, $25.5MM extension he inked last March.

Eric Hacker Re-Signs With KBO’s NC Dinos

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2016 at 6:10pm CDT

Former Major League right-hander Eric Hacker is returning to the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization for a fourth season, the announced this week (via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Per Yoo, Hacker will receive a $1MM guarantee, marking a $100K raise from last year’s salary. Hacker, like many others before him, has carved out a nice career in Asia after spending much of his pro tenure in relative anonymity in the United States. The 2017 season will be his fifth season with the Dinos, and the million-dollar salary he’s guaranteed dwarfs the money he’d have otherwise made pitching in minor league baseball (or even pitching at the Major League minimum, to a lesser extent).

The 33-year-old Hacker never panned out in Major League Baseball and in fact only totaled 18 innings in the Majors. The longtime Yankees farmhand made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2009 and saw brief stints with the Twins and Giants in 2011-12 but never stood out in terms of Triple-A performance. He found quick success with the Dinos in 2013, though, pitching to a 3.63 ERA in 178 1/3 innings in the hitter-friendly KBO. Since moving to the Korean league, Hacker has totaled 681 innings with a 3.57 ERA while displaying solid control and a strikeout rate that has improved with each passing season.

Hacker is the second American player to ink a contract with the Dinos this week, as word broke earlier today that former Cardinals and Marlins first baseman/outfielder Xavier Scruggs has signed a one-year deal with the team (also for $1MM). KBO teams are permitted to carry three foreign players, so Scruggs and Hacker will occupy two of those spots with the Dinos.

Reds Name Dick Williams President Of Baseball Ops; Walt Jocketty Moves To Advisory Role

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2016 at 4:45pm CDT

The Reds announced on Tuesday that general manager Dick Williams is moving up the ladder and is now also the president of baseball operations, with former president Walt Jocketty now serving as an executive advisor to CEO Bob Castellini (as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer chronicles in greater detail). The move has been expected for quite some time, as Jocketty himself suggested a year ago (when Williams was first promoted to GM) that he’d be shifting into an advisory role following the 2016 campaign.

Williams — who sat down for an interview with MLBTR last spring to discuss his college days and his path to a Major League front office — will now have final say over any and all baseball operations decisions for the Reds, who have been rebuilding for the past 18 months or so.

In that time, Williams and Jocketty have traded Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce for Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, John Lamb, Adam Duvall, Keury Mella, Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda, Caleb Cotham, Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, Brandon Dixon, Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell. Some of those prospects — Finnegan, Duvall, Peraza, Schebler and possibly Herrera — already look to have significant roles on the 2017 Reds, while others such as Lamb and Cotham are no longer with the organization. Jocketty and Williams have also explored trades of Brandon Phillips, though the veteran second baseman has invoked his no-trade protection to nix multiple would-be deals.

Elsewhere in the Cincinnati front office, assistant GMs Sam Grossman and Nick Krall as well as amateur scouting director Chris Buckley each had “vice president” added to his title, among a slew of other promotions and title changes. Cincinnati also announced eight new hires that will add to its player development, analytics, amateur scouting and international scouting departments, including a pair of new additions that will focus on scouting the top professional leagues in Asia.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2016 at 3:00pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Joe Blanton’s Market Heating Up

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2016 at 2:04pm CDT

Right-hander Joe Blanton is arguably the best reliever left on the free-agent market, but that may not be the case for long, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that interest in the 36-year-old has begun to pick up now that the upper tier of free-agent relievers have found new homes (Twitter link). A return to the Dodgers is still possible for Blanton, per Crasnick, though multiple teams figure to have interest following a pair of resurgent seasons for the former starter.

Blanton’s career looked to be running on fumes as recently as 2014. The long-time Athletics and Phillies hurler inked a two-year deal with the Angels prior to the 2013 season but was rocked for a 6.04 ERA in 132 2/3 innings before being released at the end of Spring Training 2014. He pitched briefly with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate that year but ultimately walked away from the game for the majority of the 2014 campaign. It wasn’t until February of 2015 that Blanton elected to give things one more go, signing a minor league deal with the Royals that proved to be the beginning of a mid-30s renaissance.

In 41 2/3 innings with the Royals, Blanton posted a respectable 3.89 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9, but he wound up being designated for assignment anyway and landed with the Pirates. Pittsburgh is where Blanton really turned things around, though, working to a 1.57 ERA in 34 1/3 innings, which led to a one-year, $4MM deal with the Dodgers last winter. His success continued into his age-35 season in Los Angeles, as Blanton whiffed 80 hitters and issued just 22 unintentional walks in 80 innings of work for manager Dave Roberts.

All told, Blanton as posted a stellar 2.65 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate in 156 innings of relief since resurfacing in the Majors in 2015. He was lit up by the Cubs in a pair of NLCS outings — seven runs on seven hits and two walks in three innings — but that shaky performance is vastly overshadowed by the larger body of work he’s turned in across the past two seasons. Despite the fact that he’ll pitch next year at the age of 36, Blanton still seems like a candidate for a solid multi-year deal — especially in a market that has been quite favorable for late-inning relievers to this point.

The rumor mill surrounding Blanton has been mostly quiet until now, with the Marlins and Dodgers as the only teams linked to his services. Miami, though, is likely done adding to its roster after signing Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Jeff Locke and A.J. Ellis. Crasnick further notes that Blanton lives in Napa Valley (and owns a vineyard there) and, all things equal, would prefer to pitch for a West Coast team. The Dodgers would obviously fit that bill, though other potential bullpen-needy teams could include the Mariners and Giants. Both Colorado and Arizona are western-division clubs that could look to further augment their bullpens as well.

Latest On Brian Dozier

By Mark Polishuk | December 27, 2016 at 11:28am CDT

TODAY: St. Louis is not “actively” working to acquire Dozier, per ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY, 8:55pm: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets that the Nationals haven’t made any “serious” inquiries in Dozier. That could suggest that the Nats at least did some due diligence and checked in on the asking price, but with no natural fit for Dozier in D.C., it doesn’t seem they’re in hot pursuit. For those speculating on other possible landing spots for Dozier, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Braves aren’t in on Dozier, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that the Athletics aren’t in play either.

3:56pm: The Cardinals and Nationals are both among the teams showing interest in Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link). The Cardinals are “very much in” the mix for the slugger, while the Nats “remain in dialogue” with the Twins. The Dodgers and Giants, two clubs previously connected to Dozier (moreso Los Angeles), are also still involved, though the Giants are “trying to get creative” to make a deal work, as per Wolfson.

Multiple teams were known to have checked in on Dozier this winter, which wasn’t surprising given his power explosion last year (42 homers) and very affordable contract ($15MM owed through the 2018 season). While his production over the last four seasons and his relatively low price tag would theoretically make him of interest to any team, the Cards and Nats are both somewhat surprising suitors given their infield surpluses.

St. Louis’ projected starting infield looks like Aledmys Diaz at short, Matt Carpenter at first, Jedd Gyorko at either third or second, perhaps alternating between the two positions to give playing time to Jhonny Peralta at third and Kolten Wong at second. That’s not even counting Carpenter’s own ability to move between second and third, nor does that include first baseman Matt Adams’ availability against righty pitching or the versatile Greg Garcia. One would think that if the Cardinals did acquire Dozier, at least one of these names would be going back to Minnesota — a younger, affordable player like Wong makes the most sense, though that’s just my speculation. Wong’s value is hardly at its peak right now, though, and any trade figures to be centered around young pitching.

Washington seems like even less of a fit, as Daniel Murphy is entrenched at second base, though metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 have long considered Murphy to be a below-average defender there. Acquiring Dozier to play second and moving Murphy to play first isn’t really a fit given the presence of Ryan Zimmerman. While the longtime Nats fixture has been plagued by injuries in recent years and saw his production badly drop off in 2016, Zimmerman is probably too expensive ($46MM through 2019) to simply be relegated to a bench role. The Nats also have third base spoken for in the form of Anthony Rendon.

With the Twins in rebuilding mode, trading Dozier for a wealth of prospects makes sense, though the club hasn’t been thought to be in any particular rush to move their second baseman given his value as an asset. The Dodgers were reportedly willing to offer top pitching prospect Jose De Leon as part of a Dozier trade, though Minnesota has been holding out for more, either from L.A. or another team.

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