Archives for October 2016

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By Connor Byrne | October 22, 2016 at 12:31pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Having amassed fewer than 70 wins both in 2015 and this season, the Athletics are mired in their worst stretch since the late 1970s. While the 2016 A’s picked up one more victory than last year’s version (69 to 68), their run differential actually declined by 73. Only two other American League teams totaled fewer wins than the A’s (who finished last in the AL West) and just one team had a worse run differential. With a roster devoid of marquee talent, executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst are unlikely to transform the low-payroll A’s into playoff contenders by next season. However, shrewd offseason moves combined with progression from Oakland’s bevy of young players and better health (the A’s used the disabled list a club-record 27 times this year) would nudge the team closer to respectability in 2017.

Guaranteed Contracts

Ryan Madson, RP: $15MM through 2018
Sean Doolittle, RP: $7.95MM through 2018 (plus 2019 and 2020 club options)
Jed Lowrie, 2B: $7.5MM through 2017 ($6MM club option for 2018; $1MM buyout)
John Axford, RP: $5.5MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Danny Valencia, 3B/RF (5.118) – $5.3MM
Yonder Alonso, 1B (5.116) – $4.1MM
Khris Davis, LF/DH (3.104) – $5.0MM
Stephen Vogt, C (3.084) – $3.7MM
Sonny Gray, SP (3.061) – $3.7MM
Liam Hendriks, RP (3.038) – $1.0MM
Non-tender candidates: Valencia, Alonso

Free Agents

Sam Fuld, Ross Detwiler. The A’s outrighted Henderson Alvarez, Felix Doubront, Jarrod Parker, Eric Sogard, Fernando Rodriguez, Tyler Ladendorf, Andrew Lambo, Donn Roach, Matt McBride and Chris Smith off their 40-man roster after the season. Each elected free agency.

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart; Oakland Athletics Payroll Information

While the A’s didn’t hit or pitch well this year, their defense and baserunning were even more egregious. Those two elements played the largest roles in Oakland’s last-place finish in position player fWAR (4.1), which was significantly worse than 29th-ranked Atlanta’s total (10.0). In the field, the A’s placed 30th in Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and they were third from the bottom at turning ground balls into outs (via StatCorner). That was particularly damaging to a pitching staff that had the majors’ ninth-highest grounder rate.

On the base paths, the A’s came in 28th in FanGraphs’ UBR metric and 26th in steals. Outfielders Billy Burns, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick, all of whom were dealt during the summer, combined for more than half (26) of the team’s 50 stolen bases. Thanks in part to those departures, the A’s are going to have to address their outfield, where questions abound.

Khris Davis will once again be the main left fielder after a 42-home run season, but the A’s also deployed him as their designated hitter in 50-plus games this year. In the wake of the Reddick trade (which the out-of-contention A’s were correct to make), there’s no clear answer in right. Center, meanwhile, is an especially big area of concern, Beane said earlier this month. Brett Eibner (acquired for Burns) and Jake Smolinski didn’t take advantage of their opportunities in 2016, so an upgrade is in order.

The Cubs’ Dexter Fowler and the Rangers’ Ian Desmond are the top soon-to-be available options in center, but they should be out of the A’s price range. Carlos Gomez, whom the Astros released in August, probably won’t come cheap after a late-season resurgence with the Rangers. Gomez will receive less than Fowler and Desmond both in guaranteed money and contract length, however, and the 30-year-old has typically performed well as a defender and runner. Gomez’s previously terrific offense was nonexistent for the second half of 2015 and nearly all of 2016, but if the A’s buy into the September tear he went on at the plate, pursuing him might make sense. The Athletics would be able to guarantee Gomez a job in center, which could entice the two-time All-Star as he looks to rebuild his once-immense value. That worked a year ago for the A’s, who helped convince left-hander Rich Hill to sign with them by guaranteeing him a spot in their rotation.

Aside from Fowler, Desmond and Gomez, less expensive (but seriously limited) possibilities include Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, Austin Jackson and Jon Jay, all of whom are in line for short-term deals. There’s already a familiarity between the A’s front office and Davis, who spent 2008-10 in Oakland. With the Indians this year, Davis led the AL with 43 steals, finishing only seven stolen bases behind the A’s entire roster. Speed aside, Davis is a non-threatening hitter and has been an inconsistent defender during his 11 major league seasons.

In right field, it’s possible the A’s will give the lion’s share of work next year to Mark Canha, who missed nearly all of 2016 with a hip injury. While Canha had a respectable rookie season in 2015, he’s bat-first player who wouldn’t necessarily help the A’s prevent runs. The same applies to Danny Valencia, who’s a non-tender or trade candidate despite the strong offensive numbers he has registered as an Athletic since joining the club last year. There were already behind-the-scenes concerns about Valencia’s clubhouse reputation before he and now-former teammate Billy Butler got into a physical altercation in August.

If the A’s aren’t content with their corners, especially right, Reddick is poised to hit the market. Returning to Oakland looks unlikely, though, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported in June that Reddick and the club were nowhere close on an extension. A relatively low-cost lefty bat like Nori Aoki, Matt Joyce or even Korea Baseball Organization star Eric Thames, a former major leaguer, could serve as a nice complement to either Canha or Valencia (both are right-handed hitters). Angel Pagan, primarily a left fielder, might also carry appeal as an inexpensive stopgap. Exploring the trade market for outfield help is also a possibility for the A’s, who could target controllable players who are on the outs with their current organizations.

Moving to the infield, the A’s will likely go forward on the left side next season with 2016 rookie standout Ryon Healy at third base and Marcus Semien at shortstop. Those two are strong offensive options, but they’re certainly not great defenders (to his credit, Semien improved in 2016). A combination of Joey Wendle and Jed Lowrie is expected at second base, though that’s not a confidence-inspiring duo. The A’s have a non-tender candidate at first in Yonder Alonso, whose projected $4.1MM arbitration award looks steep for a player who was woeful as a hitter and took a step back as a defender this season.

If the A’s cut Alonso and elect to replace him from within, Valencia or Healy would be sensible choices. Although improbable, sending Healy across the infield would enable the A’s to add a reasonably priced free agent like Luis Valbuena to play third. Alternatively, keeping Healy at the hot corner and either moving on from Valencia or using him elsewhere could mean pursuing free agent first basemen like Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind or ex-Oakland slugger Brandon Moss. Moreland and Lind are coming off forgettable seasons, so it’s not a lock that either would be an upgrade over Alonso. Pearce, meanwhile, isn’t healthy at the moment after undergoing September surgery to repair the flexor mass in his right forearm. That might affect his price, which would benefit the A’s if they’re interested in him.

In the wake of the disappointing Butler era, the A’s could turn to various players at designated hitter instead of going after a primary DH in the offseason. Valencia’s defensive woes would make him a fit to get the majority of at-bats there, but again, his future is murky. That could leave the likes of Davis, Lowrie and catcher Stephen Vogt among those rotating at the position. Barring a trade, the defensively challenged Vogt will once again be the starting backstop, but the A’s have Josh Phegley and Bruce Maxwell on hand to spell him.

While you’d never know it from the rotation’s output this season (bottom 10 in ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA), the A’s have 80 percent of a potentially solid starting staff in place as they head into the winter. Had he not endured such a shockingly nightmarish year, (former?) ace Sonny Gray would currently look like an obvious trade candidate. However, dealing Gray now would be a sell-low move by the A’s, who are likelier to bring back the first-time arbitration-eligible right-hander at a palatable cost (an estimated $3.7MM) and hope he rebounds from an injury-ravaged campaign. Joining Gray will be Sean Manaea, Kendall Graveman and Jharel Cotton, who came to the A’s in August as part of the trade with the Dodgers that sent Reddick and Hill to LA.

The signing of Hill last winter for $6MM was a brilliant move by the A’s (it more than made up for their wasted $4.25MM investment in the injured Henderson Alvarez), and he’ll once again be on the market during the upcoming offseason. This time, though, contenders should pursue Hill with much richer offers, meaning a return to Oakland probably won’t be in the cards. Adding an experienced starter to a youthful group could still happen, however, and there will be a fair amount of back-end types on the market.

Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin and former Athletic Brett Anderson would bring some upside at bargain prices, while Jorge De La Rosa and Colby Lewis represent more grizzled, lower-ceiling choices. Lewis is far less reliant on grounders than the others, especially Anderson, so the A’s weak infield defense wouldn’t hurt him as much. Further, the longtime Ranger would likely benefit by moving to a homer-suppressing park like the Oakland Coliseum.

If the A’s decide not to add one of these veterans (or others who will be available), the last spot in their rotation could go to righty Andrew Triggs, who was outstanding in limited work as a starter this year and earned a fan in Beane. Triggs tossed 25 2/3 innings out of the A’s rotation and posted a 2.82 ERA on the strength of 22 strikeouts against one walk. Oakland has other young choices in Frankie Montas (also acquired in the deal for Reddick and Hill) and Daniel Mengden. The latter made 14 starts for the A’s this year and put up an ugly ERA (6.50), but he notched a decent strikeout percentage (21.4; AL average for starters is 21.1), and his FIP, xFIP and SIERA each hovered around the mid-4s.

As is the case with their rotation, the A’s appear to have the vast majority of their bullpen in place for 2017. Unless the team deals any of them, Ryan Madson, John Axford, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Dull and Liam Hendriks should eat up five spots. The out-of-options Raul Alcantara could grab another, as could Daniel Coulombe. In the event Oakland’s not content with all of its in-house relievers, there will be plenty available in free agency at economical costs. The A’s showed a willingness to spend on their bullpen last year when they signed Madson and Axford, and there will again be options available at similar prices (upward of $5MM per annum) if they want to further invest in it.

Based on recent years, Oakland’s Opening Day payroll probably won’t stray far from the $85MM range next season, but the team will have some spending room to play with – especially if it jettisons at least one of Valencia or Alonso. Theoretically, making somewhat of a splash is possible (signing Fowler, for instance), but the abundance of weaknesses on the roster could mean spreading the cash around instead.

Considering they’re unable to spend like some of their colleagues who run high-payroll teams, Beane and Forst will clearly have their work cut out for them as they try to improve a roster that was dreadful in so many key categories this year. The A’s did virtually nothing well in 2016, but they do have some intriguing youth on hand. Now, as the offseason approaches, it’s a matter of finding capable, reasonably priced veterans to complement that young talent and help the A’s escape the basement.

5 Key Stories: 10/15/16 – 10/21/16

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2016 at 11:50am CDT

Here are five of this week’s biggest stories here at MLBTR…

Diamondbacks hire Mike Hazen as general manager, executive vice-president. Arizona officially moved on from the Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart era by installing Hazen atop its baseball operations pyramid. The highly-regarded Hazen spent a decade in the Red Sox front office, including the last year as Boston’s GM, working under president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski. Rumors have been swirling that Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo could become the new D’Backs manager.

Red Sox looking at internal GM candidates. Dombrowski would prefer to replace Hazen from within the organization, and several notable names have already been mentioned as candidates: assistant GM Brian O’Halloran, senior vice president of personnel Allard Baird, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum, VP of international/amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye and VP of international scouting Eddie Romero. (There has also been speculation that O’Halloran, Quattlebaum and Sawdaye could take jobs with the Diamondbacks, following Hazen.) One notable Red Sox front office member doesn’t appear to be a candidate, as senior VP of baseball operations Frank Wren is reportedly happy in his current role.

Tigers could make roster changes while still remaining competitive. Tigers GM Al Avila’s season-ending comments to reporters indicated that the club is looking to modify how it does business, saying that “We want to get younger. We want to get leaner. We want to run the organization without having to go over our means.” This could hint at changes to Detroit’s free-spending ways, including exploring trading big salaries instead of adding them. The Tigers already tried to deal Justin Upton last summer and seem likely to explore moving him again this winter, while J.D. Martinez could be another potential trade candidate since Avila isn’t planning extension talks in the near future.

MLB looking to implement an international draft. In talks with the players’ union about a new collective bargaining agreement, the league is pushing hard to replace the current international bonus system with a more organized ten-round draft. The league has long sought for more control over the international market, though in the opinion of Baseball America’s Ben Badler, this draft proposal doesn’t do enough to address some fundamental issues in the way international players are identified, scouted and developed.

Reds agree to new television contract. The Reds and FOX Sports Ohio agreed to a 15-year extension of their current TV deal. Terms weren’t disclosed, though club COO Phil Castellini stated the Reds will get a “nice increase” from the $30MM they previously received in annual rights fees.

NL West Notes: Preller, Giants, Rockies, D’Backs

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2016 at 10:36am CDT

Padres GM A.J. Preller is back on the job now that his 30-day suspension has ended, though both Preller and the organization may need more time to repair their reputations around baseball. ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that several teams will adjust how they negotiate with San Diego from now on, while one team has simply refused to consider any trades with Preller and the Padres. There is also still “a river of industry speculation” that the Padres could face lawsuits about their handling of player medical information. Here’s some more from around the NL West…

In a reader mailbag piece about several Giants-related topics, MLB.com’s Chris Haft doesn’t see San Francisco re-signing free agents Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, Angel Pagan or Jake Peavy, though there’s a chance Gregor Blanco could return. The probable departures of Romo and Lopez could be part of a wider bullpen shakeup for the Giants, as GM Bobby Evans has said that finding a closer is a top offseason priority.
The Rockies’ managerial search is discussed by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post as part of his own reader maibag. Saunders feels the team’s new skipper should come from outside the organization in order to bring a fresh perspective. It seems like Colorado is more apt to hire a manager who leans more towards the front office’s analytical mindset. Former manager Walt Weiss “embraced the statistics and analytics to a large degree,” though ultimately preferred to rely on gut-level calls and felt he was being interfered with by the front office. The well-documented discord between Weiss and GM Jeff Bridich also didn’t help things, as you might expect.
The Diamondbacks lost three members of the scouting department in part due to the front office uncertainty prior to hiring of new GM Mike Hazen, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Assistant director of scouting Brendan Domaracki and longtime scout Howard McCullough (who had been with the D’Backs since the franchise began operations) both left for positions with the Mariners, while amateur scout Frankie Thon Jr. will join the Angels as their new international crosschecker and assistant director of international scouting.

Quick Hits: McCann, Cards’ Pen, Salazar, Rea

By Jeff Todd | October 22, 2016 at 12:25am CDT

We’ve long heard chatter about a possible reunion between Yankees catcher Brian McCann and the Braves, and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman provides some hints about where things stand. New York has asked for righty Mike Foltynewicz or center fielder Ender Inciarte to part with the veteran receiver, which certainly sounds like a non-starter from here. An arrangement could yet make sense, Bowman writes, but Atlanta won’t include either of those two players.

Here are a few more notes from around the game:

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch takes a long look at the question of whether the Cardinals can mimic some of the Indians’ success in finding a top-notch relief pitcher to throw in a flexible capacity, as Andrew Miller has done for Cleveland. Goold wonders whether either Trevor Rosenthal or Michael Wacha might be positioned to function in the role that he dubs the “fixer.”
Indians righty Danny Salazar may not just be a part of the World Series roster; he may be able to start. Manager Terry Francona wouldn’t rule out that possibility to reporters including Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer. Francona has cast doubt previously on Salazar returning at all, noting that he had yet to throw at full capacity; this time, though, he says the prized righty was able to ramp up his arm speed and “threw the ball really well.” A three-inning sim game this weekend may decide Salazar’s postseason fate.
The Padres are still finding cause to hope that righty Colin Rea can stave off Tommy John surgery, which he has sought to do through a combination of platelet-rich plasma treatment and rehab/rest. As AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets, the team is deciding just how to give him some postseason pitching work to help make a final decision. Rea could appear in the Arizona Fall League, take part in live BP, or even head out for a partial winter ball run. Regardless, Rea is set to throw competitively in about three weeks’ time.

AL East Notes: Grilli, Dickey, Ortiz, Rickard, Davis

By Jeff Todd | October 21, 2016 at 9:24pm CDT

The Blue Jays are expected to pick up the team’s $3MM option over righty Jason Grilli, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca notes in his breakdown of the team’s upcoming offseason plans. That’s hardly a surprise now, though it probably is one if you backtrack all the way to May 31, when he came to Toronto via trade. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the time, it was possible to see the potential for a rebound from the veteran, with the Jays only accepting a minimal amount of salary obligations. The 39-year-old ultimately delivered just what Toronto hoped for, contributing 42 innings of 3.64 ERA pitching with 12.4 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. He’ll enter the 2017 as a key set-up option for the Jays, with his affordable option locking up one bullpen spot at a reasonable price.

Here’s more from the AL East:

Several notable Blue Jays players may well end up heading to other organizations, of course. As Davidi writes, it appears rather likely that veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey will be among them. Dickey did not commit to continuing his playing career, but says he’ll listen to any opportunities as they arise this winter after taking some time away from the game. He spoke fondly of his four seasons in Toronto, over which he turned in 824 1/3 solid innings but was never quite as dominant as hoped when the club parted with significant talent (including then-prospect Noah Syndergaard) to acquire him after three outstanding years with the Mets.
David Ortiz’s unbelievable final season with the Red Sox may have been more remarkable than most of us truly realized as it unfolded. As WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, the aging slugger was fighting through lower-leg and foot issues that were far more serious than was known publicly. Widespread problems meant that Ortiz “was essentially playing on stumps,” in the words of coordinator of sports medicine services Dan Dyrek — the man who helped him hang on as long as he did. Boston fans, in particular, will want to read the entirety of this piece, in which Dyrek breaks down the immense challenges faced by Ortiz and the team’s medical staff dating back for several seasons.
Orioles outfielder Joey Rickard never returned to action after tearing a thumb ligament on July 20, but the hope is he won’t need surgery to address the issue, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. More importantly, highly paid slugger Chris Davis is set for doctors to check out his hand after dealing with discomfort throughout the year. Though Davis battled through the injury all year, he didn’t quite perform as hoped, and the team wants to double check that some kind of offseason procedure isn’t necessary.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

By Connor Byrne | October 21, 2016 at 7:44pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Although the Mariners extended their major league-worst playoff drought to 15 years in 2016, it was still an encouraging campaign for the club. In the Mariners’ first year under general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais, they finished seventh in the American League in winning percentage (.531, 86-76) and a more impressive fourth in run differential (plus-61). Seattle’s record was good enough to keep the team in the wild-race race until the penultimate day of the season, though merely staying in the hunt doesn’t suffice. With that in mind, Dipoto will spend the next several months trying to position the roster to get over the hump in 2017 and put the Mariners in the postseason for the first time since their historic 116-win 2001 campaign.

Guaranteed Contracts

Robinson Cano, 2B: $168MM through 2023
Kyle Seager, 3B: $85MM through 2021 ($15MM club option for 2022)
Felix Hernandez, SP: $79MM through 2019 ($1MM conditional club option for 2020)
Nelson Cruz, DH/RF: $32MM through 2018
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $15MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2018; $1MM buyout; option will vest at $15MM if Iwakuma throws 324 combined innings between 2016-17 and doesn’t end ’17 season with unspecified injury)
Steve Cishek, RP: $6MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Charlie Furbush (5.121) – $1.6MM
Tom Wilhelmsen (5.072) – $3.8MM
Ryan Cook (4.086) – $1.2MM
Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
Steve Clevenger (3.123) – $800K
Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM
James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
Taijuan Walker (2.127) – $2.8MM
Jesus Sucre (2.136) – $600K
Non-tender candidates: Furbush, Wilhelmsen, Cook, Clevenger, Sucre

Contract Options

Seth Smith, OF: $7MM club option ($250K buyout)
Chris Iannetta, C: $4.25MM club option

Free Agents

Nori Aoki, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-ho Lee, Adam Lind, Drew Storen

Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information

Earlier in the Mariners’ lengthy skid, there were seasons in which woeful offensive production torpedoed their chances of competing. That wasn’t the case in 2016, however, as the Mariners eclipsed the 700-run plateau (768) for the first time since 2007. All told, Seattle crossed home plate more than 23 of the majors’ other 29 teams and finished second only to Boston’s outstanding offense in wRC+ (107).

The Mariners’ main offensive threats – second baseman Robinson Cano, designated hitter Nelson Cruz and third baseman Kyle Seager – will be back next year, but there are questions about some of the team’s complementary pieces. Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively. Defensively, this year’s Mariners ranked 23rd in both Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-24.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (minus-22). On the base paths, they placed 24th in steals (56) and toward the bottom in UBR (23rd) and BsR (26th) – two of FanGraphs’ metrics.

While shortstop Ketel Marte was one of the Mariners’ best baserunners this season, he weighed the club down in other facets and could head to Triple-A Tacoma for further development next year. Seattle already tried to replace Marte over the summer with the Reds’ Zack Cozart, but the teams ran out of time to reach a deal before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old with one season left on his contract, the rebuilding Reds could shop Cozart again over the winter. Given the dearth of free agent shortstops on the upcoming market, the Mariners renewing their previous pursuit of Cozart seems like a no-brainer. Not only has Cozart has been a terrific defender since breaking in as a full-time major leaguer in 2012, but his most recent production indicates he’d provide the Mariners another respectable bat. Dating back to last season, Cozart has slashed .254/.308/.435 with 25 home runs in 722 plate appearances. In nearly the same amount of PAs (713), Marte has hit .267/.309/.349 with three homers.

If the Mariners acquire Cozart, he’d team with Cano and Seager to comprise the majority of their infield next season. Elsewhere, there’s no established option at first base, where midseason acquisition Dan Vogelbach could pick up the lion’s share of playing time as a left-handed hitter. The 23-year-old has more than held his own against minor league pitching, and he wouldn’t have a difficult act to follow in soon-to-be free agent Adam Lind (.239/.286/.431 in 2016).

Despite his shortcomings as a baserunner and defender, the big-bodied Vogelbach represents the Mariners’ best in-house option to take the reins at first. If that happens, platooning Vogelbach with a capable right-handed hitter would make sense. The Mariners have an impending free agent who fits the bill in Dae-ho Lee. In his first year in the majors, the longtime star in Korea and Japan slashed an above-average .261/.329/.446 with eight long balls in 157 PAs against southpaws. The 34-year-old Lee likely wouldn’t cost much for the Mariners to re-sign, having made an economical $1MM this season.

While the Mariners could determine that Vogelbach isn’t yet the answer as a primary option and look outside for aid, Dipoto has already made it clear that he wants a younger group of position players in 2017 (via Brent Stecker of 710 ESPN Seattle). Scouring free agency, where there are a slew of potential targets in their mid-30s (Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli and Steve Pearce, to name a few), wouldn’t help Dipoto accomplish that goal. On paper, though, each is a more enticing (and far more expensive) choice than Vogelbach. The trade market probably won’t offer much, though the Brewers might put soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger Chris Carter on the block or even non-tender him.

Behind the plate, the Mariners seem prepared to turn to Mike Zunino again on the heels of an encouraging season that Servais called an “absolute success” (via Stecker). Because he began the year in Tacoma, Zunino only appeared in 55 games with the Mariners. The .195 career hitter batted an unsightly .207 along the way, but his 10.9 percent walk rate and .262 ISO led to .318 on-base and .470 slugging percentages. His overall batting line was easily above average, but it’s up in the air whether the third overall pick in the 2012 draft will continue drawing walks or hitting for power at such high clips. Nevertheless, he’s an asset as a defender, and Servais feels “really good about where he’s at and the strides he’s made to kinda be a front-line, everyday catcher.”

Even if the Mariners are confident enough in Zunino to avoid spending on one the market’s best available catchers – Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley – they could still use a decent complement at the position. Unfortunately, pickings will be slim outside of that quartet. Current backup Chris Iannetta has fallen off both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, which could convince the Mariners to decline his $4.25MM option, but it’s debatable whether anyone from the group of A.J. Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto and Alex Avila is superior to him. The Mariners also have Jesus Sucre on hand, though it’s difficult to trust a 28-year-old with a .209/.246/.276 line in 264 major league PAs. Meanwhile, Steve Clevenger is a non-tender waiting to happen.

In the outfield, the Mariners only have one starter – center fielder Leonys Martin – under control for 2017. The team relied heavily on Seth Smith, Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez in the corners this year, and there are now decisions to make with all three. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners plan to exercise Smith’s $7MM option, adding that Gutierrez will probably return in lieu of departing as a free agent. If true, the left-handed Smith and the right-handed Gutierrez would make for a useful platoon in right field. That would still leave one open spot, but Aoki is unlikely to occupy it if the club retains Smith, per Dutton.

Aside from Martin, Smith, Aoki and Gutierrez, the Mariners’ outfield candidates include relative unknowns in Guillermo Heredia and August acquisition Ben Gamel. Those two weren’t especially impressive in late-season auditions, which could lead the Mariners to look for an upgrade in the offseason. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported last month that Seattle might make a splash on a “complementary piece” during the winter. The outfield would be a sensible place to spend in that type of scenario.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler would be a particularly intriguing target if he gets to free agency. Fowler has long been a solid contributor at the plate and on the bases, and he’s coming off a respectable defensive year thanks to a change in alignment. The switch-hitting 30-year-old also got on base nearly 40 percent of the time this season and has done so at a .366 career clip, which should intrigue an OBP proponent like Dipoto. Potential drawbacks: Fowler would require a pricey multiyear commitment, signing him would cost the Mariners a first-round pick (currently No. 18 overall) if the Cubs tender him a qualifying offer, and either Fowler or Martin would have to be receptive to playing a corner.

Like Fowler, the Rangers’ Ian Desmond would also cost the Mariners significant money and a top pick. His versatility is interesting, though, as Desmond lined up at both left and center this year after spending the first several seasons of his career at shortstop. It’s unclear whether Desmond would consider moving back to short, but if he markets himself as an infielder/outfielder, a team in need in both areas (the Mariners, for instance) could enter the bidding.

As is the case with Desmond, fellow Ranger Carlos Gomez is an impending free agent who has played multiple outfield spots. While Gomez wouldn’t cost a pick and would bring a history of speed and defense to the Mariners, there’s considerable risk with him after he flamed out with the Astros from 2015-16. Gomez returned to his previous All-Star form at the plate with the Rangers in September, however, and will be on many teams’ radars as a result.

Shifting to their rotation, the Mariners have almost an entire starting five seemingly locked in with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, but it’s an unspectacular group. Hernandez and Iwakuma no longer look like front-line options, and Walker has been somewhat of a letdown in the majors since his days as an elite prospect. The Mariners possess other rotation possibilities in Nate Karns, who performed much better as a starter than as a reliever in 2016, and Ariel Miranda. Otherwise, the open market will feature plenty of flawed alternatives. Dipoto hasn’t been shy about making trades, so he could certainly explore that route, too.

Adding a productive innings eater would seem logical, as Hernandez is coming off his lowest mark since 2005 (153 1/3), Iwakuma has durability questions, Paxton has never thrown more than 171 2/3 frames in any professional season, and Walker just had ankle surgery and hasn’t exceeded 169 2/3 in any year. However, having a consistent track record of taking the ball every fifth day wasn’t enough for the Mariners to retain Wade Miley, whom they traded to Baltimore in July for Miranda. Miley was ineffective for Seattle and would have cost the club $8.75MM in 2017. Durable free agents like Edinson Volquez and former Mariner R.A. Dickey should carry similar (perhaps higher) per-year price tags to Miley, but it’s not a lock either would be part of the solution. While Bartolo Colon is better than Miley, Volquez and Dickey, signing the soon-to-be 44-year-old would require him to leave the Mets and switch coasts.

If Karns and Miranda don’t end up as starters, they could factor into the bullpen, where Seattle will be in fine shape even if it non-tenders Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush and/or Ryan Cook. The Mariners got great rookie performances this year from closer Edwin Diaz and Dan Altavilla. Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent and Vidal Nuno also look like shoo-ins to occupy spots. Steve Cishek and Tony Zych should figure heavily into the equation in theory, but there are notable health issues with the pair. Regardless, the Mariners clearly have a righty-heavy bullpen and could use a late-game lefty. They’ll be able to find solid and affordable southpaws on the market, where Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepczynski will be among the possibilities not named Aroldis Chapman.

Since 2014, a year after they signed a $2 billion television deal, the Mariners’ payroll has risen exponentially. Seattle opened 2016 with a franchise-record $142MM-plus in 25-man roster commitments (up more than $50MM from 2014) and should surpass that mark next season. The club was on the cusp of the playoffs this year, and with new owner John Stanton motivated to win, Dipoto should have the resources available to put the Mariners in contention for an AL West title in 2017.

Tigers Hire Lloyd McClendon As Hitting Coach

By Jeff Todd | October 21, 2016 at 5:56pm CDT

Former Mariners and Pirates skipper Lloyd McClendon will serve next year as the Tigers’ hitting coach, per a team announcement. He’ll take over for Wally Joyner, who is said to be departing to pursue other opportunities, per Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter).

The 57-year-old McClendon ran up a 336-446 record during his initial run as a manager with Pittsburgh. After a strong first season in Seattle in 2014, when he returned to the top uniformed staff job, McClendon’s Mariners sputtered a season ago and he lost his job as part of a broader house cleaning exercise.

McClendon spent the 2016 season managing at Triple-A Toledo — the top Detroit affiliate. Now, he’ll be a part of a major league staff that’s headed by manager Brad Ausmus. The Tigers somewhat surprisingly elected to pick up Ausmus’s option this winter, but there has been no indication that any additional seasons were added to his deal — putting Ausmus in the position of managing for his job.

Also joining the Tigers’ staff as assistant hitting coach is Leon “Bull” Durham. The former big league slugger has been in the organization for 17 years, the team notes, but has never before coached at the major league level.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/21/16

By Jeff Todd | October 21, 2016 at 3:32pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves, with all links to the Twitter feed of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.

The Braves have signed lefty Sam Freeman to a minor league pact. Presumably, he’ll have at least some reasonable shot at pushing for a spot in the organization’s bullpen pecking order — if not even a big league job out of camp. The 29-year-old was rather productive from 2013 through 2015, posting a 2.74 ERA over 88 2/3 total innings, though organizations have never full trusted him with a locked-down MLB relief role. And last year was a tough one for Freeman, who not only scuffled at Triple-A (5.20 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 over 55 1/3 innings) but was hit hard in a brief stint at the major league level with the Brewers.
Another southpaw pen candidate, Onelki Garcia, is headed to the Royals on a minor league arrangement. The 27-year-old has seen only brief MLB action (just three appearances, in fact), and did not spend any time with a major league organization last year. But he did show rather well in the competitive Mexican League, for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico. Over 33 innings, Garcia worked to a 3.82 ERA on 28 hits with 8.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9.
Promising indy ball player Dalton Wheat has had his contract purchased by the Marlins, as his former team, the Kansas City T-Bones, announced recently. According to a gripping story in the Wyandotte Daily, Wheat isn’t just an interesting player who was overlooked after a strong D-II college career, leading Baseball America to name him the top indy ball prospect. He also already has a legitimately unusual, trademark attribute that will make him a fascinating player to watch as he enters the affiliated ranks. Beyond his top-end speed and solid on-base potential, Wheat truly shows up to work — taking his turns at the plate with a pair of standard-issue work gloves rather than typical baseball batting gloves. (Yes, the Wyandotte Daily provides a great photo.) Wheat tells a fan on Twitter that he’ll keep chopping wood in his signature handwear so long as the Marlins allow it.

NL East Notes: Marksberry, Desmond, Mets

By Steve Adams | October 21, 2016 at 1:45pm CDT

Braves left-hander Matt Marksberry, who as of Tuesday was battling potentially serious health issues, awoke from a medically induced coma yesterday, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Marksberry had been suffering from intense stomach pains and wound up suffering a seizure that led to a collapsed lung while at the hospital for treatment, according to O’Brien. Marksberry’s sister tweeted that her brother “still has a long journey ahead of him” as he recovers from the frightening incident. Needless to say, we’re happy to learn that the 26-year-old appears to be on the road to recovery and continue to hold Marksberry in our thoughts as we wish him a speedy recovery.

A few more items from the NL East…

Neither the Nationals nor Ian Desmond are entirely ruling out a reunion this winter, reports Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, though she characterizes the possibility as unlikely. Janes spoke to a team source who said, “I don’t see it, but anything is possible.” That’s far from a ringing endorsement for Desmond, but her colleague Thomas Boswell did lay out a scenario in which it could make sense: play Desmond in center field, move Trea Turner back to shortstop and deploy Danny Espinosa as a versatile utility infielder. Janes speculates that Desmond could realistically look to pursue something along the lines of Ben Zobrist’s four-year, $56MM pact, but that may be more than the Nationals care to invest, as she adds that the team “won’t stretch their means for his services.” Also, Janes writes that the Nats are looking to become a more contact-oriented team, and strikeouts remain an issue for Desmond despite his rebound campaign in Texas.
John Harper of the New York Daily News opines that while retaining Yoenis Cespedes should clearly be the Mets’ top priority this offseason, a pursuit of Kenley Jansen should be a close second. Harper argues that the $17.2MM value of the qualifying offer the team may be comfortable extending to Neil Walker would be better allocated to Jansen, who can team with Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed to give skipper Terry Collins one of the league’s most imposing bullpen trios, thereby taking some pressure off of a rotation that was plagued by injuries in 2016. There’s certainly merit to the notion, and the Mets have been willing to part with a first-round pick in the past for lesser-regarded players. However, while Harper throws out a speculative number of four years and $54MM, I’ll respectfully take the over on both of those figures, as both Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are in firm position not simply to surpass Jonathan Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM record for a relief pitcher but to absolutely shatter it by a substantial amount.

Borderline Club Options On Starting Pitchers

By Steve Adams | October 21, 2016 at 11:37am CDT

By now, everyone who follows free agency in baseball should be keenly aware that the offseason market for free-agent starting pitching is arguably the worst in history. This winter’s top names will include a 36-year-old that was pitching in independent ball last season (Rich Hill), a former Rookie of the Year that was moved last winter in what amounted to a salary dump (Jeremy Hellickson) and a 30-year-old that opened the season in a long-relief role before a stunning transformation following a trade to the Pirates (Ivan Nova). That’s a far cry from the 2015-16 offseason, when David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake each reeled in contracts of at least five years in length and at least $80MM in total value.

The paucity of not only top-tier starting pitchers but simply reliable arms that can be plugged into the middle or back of a rotation on this year’s open market has an impact not only on teams looking for starting pitching, but teams with decisions to make regarding club options on starters that, frankly, didn’t do a lot to justify the salaries that are included in those options in 2016.

The Rangers, for instance, hold an $11MM option with a $1MM buyout over left-hander Derek Holland. For a pitcher whose ERA has come in just shy of 5.00 over the past two seasons and has averaged just 68 innings per year dating back to 2014, an $11MM salary seems steep, to say the least. Holland, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out in examining his option case, has had two shoulder injuries and a major knee injury in the past three years and has scarcely been able to take the mound at all. The Derek Holland that pitched 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA for the 2013 Rangers probably feels like a distant memory for Rangers fans.

However, it’s also worth considering that even a bounceback candidate like Doug Fister received a one-year, $7MM deal last winter, while Mike Pelfrey pulled in two years and $16MM coming off a dreadful three-year run with the Twins. The Rangers owe Holland $1MM one way or the other, by virtue of the buyout on his option, so they effectively have to determine whether he’s worth investing an additional $10MM. Given the dearth of quality options this offseason, it’s not unthinkable that even rebound candidates will command numbers not that far off from that level. Edinson Volquez and Andrew Cashner, for instance, will probably both receive fairly notable contracts despite coming off of poor seasons. And while each has a better recent track record of health, neither delivered demonstrably better bottom-line results than Holland (who is also three years younger than Volquez). The Royals are effectively deciding that Volquez isn’t worth offering another $7MM by reportedly planning to buy out his $10MM mutual option for $3MM, but that certainly doesn’t mean that he won’t find a taker at or above that $7MM rate on an open market that is devoid of talented arms. In fact, I’d wager that he will top that $7MM mark and come out ahead of the $10MM he’d have earned via that mutual option.

The same logic can be applied to the options held by the Cardinals over Jaime Garcia ($12MM with a $500K buyout) and Clay Buchholz with the Red Sox ($13.5MM with a $500K buyout). An $11.5MM net investment in Garcia, who logged a 4.67 ERA in 171 2/3 innings this year and has his own history of durability issues, might seem steep to some, but a 30-year-old left-hander with a decent track record that finished the year healthy would probably command a multi-year deal in the upcoming market. If anything, his agents may be hoping that the Cardinals elect to decline the option option, but the context of the free-agent market suggests that there’s some value in that one-year commitment, even if the team explores the option of trading him after exercising the option.

Buchholz’s option may look even more daunting, as investing $13MM more into a pitcher that lost his rotation spot and finished the year with a 4.78 ERA and lackluster peripherals absolutely feels like an overpay. But Buchholz pitched more effectively in 28 2/3 innings after returning to the rotation in September, and he’s only a season removed from a 3.26 ERA that came with outstanding peripherals. While he’s been one of the more mercurial arms in the league over the past half-decade, the type of upside he brings on a one-year commitment is greater than that of most other options on the free-agent market. As is the case with Garcia, a multi-year pact could be attainable if he were to reach the open market (remember, again, that Pelfrey found two years last winter coming off not just a poor season but a poor three years and has never matched the success of Buchholz’s best years).

None of the three players in question here enjoyed a particularly good season, but each at least finished the year healthy enough to take the ball and has enjoyed quality results in the past. Even if their current teams feel that there’s no fit on the 2017 roster for a pitcher with these levels of question marks, it still makes sense to exercise the options and explore the trade market. Even if the Rangers, for instance, include $4MM to trade Holland elsewhere in exchange for a minor leaguer or two, they’re effectively purchasing those prospects for $3MM. It’s far from a lock that these options will be exercised, of course, and it’s worth also mentioning the likes of Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel, who seem like easier calls but wilted in the final month of the season in this discussion as well. From where I stand, so long as a pitcher finished the season in a reasonable state of health, committing to a one-year deal at a not-backbreaking rate given the market alternatives and the number of rival clubs that figure to be on the hunt for rotation help is the right call.

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