The Nationals and right-hander Stephen Strasburg have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.4MM salary for the 2016 season, tweets Jon Heyman. That lines up nearly perfectly with MLBTR’s projection of $10.5MM for the Scott Boras client, who is entering his final season before free agency. Strasburg projects to be the top name available on next year’s market as things currently stand.
Archives for January 2016
Cespedes Has Been Seeking Six-Year Deal Worth Roughly $22MM Annually
Free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and his representatives at Roc Nation Sports have been seeking a six-year contract that will pay the slugger as much as $22MM annually this offseason, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter).
At present, the Orioles are said to have an offer on the table to Cespedes that is worth in the range of $90MM over five seasons, with a sixth-year option possibly included in that offer. While it’s a sizable sum in a vacuum, that figure is a departure from the expectations that many carried for Cespedes heading into the offseason on the heels of a monstrous .291/.328/.542 season that featured 35 homers and excellent left field defense. The asking price highlights the unlikelihood that Cespedes will alter his course and instead seek a short-term deal, as many teams have seemingly hoped. The Mets are said to have interest on a deal of one to three years in length, and the White Sox were also reported to have interest in a three-year deal for their former division-rival.
If Cespedes is to ultimately decide his best course of action is to enter the open market again next offseason — which I personally find difficult to imagine — one creative alternative would be to pursue a relatively short-term deal with an opt out after the first year of the contract. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed that scenario for not only Cespedes but also Justin Upton on yesterday’s MLBTR Podcast. A high-annual-value deal of perhaps three years in length with a first-year opt out could prove to be a compromise between Cespedes and interested parties, although I’ll stress again that said scenario is only my own speculation.
Astros, Dallas Keuchel Avoid Arbitration
The Astros and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.25MM salary, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (on Twitter). That figure will set a new record for the largest salary ever awarded to a first-time arbitration eligible starting pitcher, shattering the previous record of $4.35MM (held by both Dontrelle Willis and David Price). Keuchel, a client of Frontline Athlete Management, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $6.4MM this offseason, but he cleared even that aggressive projection by about 13 percent.
Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal
12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.
12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.
JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.
JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year. That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.
6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.
4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”
The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.
As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.
Moss, Rosenthal Avoid Arbitration With Cardinals
12:43pm: The Cardinals have also avoided arbitration with Rosenthal, who agreed to terms on a $5.6MM deal, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. That’s an enormous sum for any first-time player, even if falls short of his projection from Swartz.
Rosenthal racked up 48 saves last season and worked to a brilliant 2.10 ERA, averaging 10.9 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings pitched along the way. With a $5.6MM base established in his first time through the arbitration process, Rosenthal will be poised to see that number expand considerably in the coming two offseasons before hitting the open market following the 2017 season.
10:39am: The Cardinals and first baseman Brandon Moss have agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth $8.25MM in order to avoid an arbitration hearing, according to Jon Heyman (on Twitter). That figure exceeds his projected salary of $7.9MM (courtesy of MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) by about four percent. Moss is represented by ACES.
St. Louis added Moss in a trade that sent left-handed pitching prospect Rob Kaminsky to the Indians this past summer. In 151 plate appearances with the Cardinals, Moss batted .250/.344/.409, bringing his overall season batting line to .226/.304/.407. While that’s far from the production that Moss showed for much of his time in Oakland (where he played for three years prior to Cleveland), it should be noted that Moss underwent a major surgical procedure on his hip following the 2014 season and may have felt some lingering effects of that operation throughout the ’15 campaign. Overall, Moss was quite productive with Oakland, batting .254/.340/.504. and the Cardinals will hope his power levels trend back up toward those heights in what will be Moss’ final season before free agency. Per recent reports out of St. Louis, he’s expected to get the first chance to establish himself as the team’s regular first baseman in 2016.
With Moss’ deal agreed upon, the Cardinals still have to work out agreements with Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Adams and Seth Maness, as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Chris Tillman, Manny Machado
The Orioles have avoided arbitration with right-hander Chris Tillman by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $6.225MM, tweets Jon Heyman. Tillman is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council. Additionally, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun hears that Manny Machado has avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5MM, plus incentives (Twitter link). And, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that Ryan Flaherty has agreed to a $1.5MM salary with the O’s. The Tillman and Flaherty figures are in line with the projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who pegged them at respective salaries of $6.2MM and $1.5MM. Machado comes up shy of his $5.9MM projection but still earns a huge raise over last year’s $548K salary.
Tillman, 27, took a step back in 2015, posting a 4.99 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 173 innings after having worked to a 3.52 ERA in the two seasons prior. He’ll hope for a rebound year as he sits two years away from free agency.
Machado, 23, broke out with an MVP-caliber season in 2015, hitting .286/.359/.502 with 35 home runs in 713 plate appearances to go along with elite defense at third base. Machado is controllable through the 2018 season and should prove to be among the elite ranks of third basemen throughout the league in the years to come.
Flaherty, 29, batted just .201/.281/.356 last season but will reprise his role as a utility bat with some pop. Though he’s a career .215 hitter, Flaherty does have 32 homers and a .150 ISO throughout his MLB career.
Padres Avoid Arbitration With Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross
12:13pm: The Padres also announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Ross, who, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock, will earn $9.625MM in 2016 (Twitter link). That comes in a bit shy of Ross’ $10MM projection, although as Swartz outlined in an Arbitration Breakdown post specifically examining Ross’ case, there was reason to believe that the projection model could be a bit aggressive, and something between $9.15MM and $9.7MM might be more appropriate, based on historical comparables.
Ross, 28, recorded a strong 3.26 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 196 innings for the Padres last season. The Wasserman Media Group client will be arbitration eligible one more time next winter before reaching the open market following the 2017 season.
11:23am: The Padres and right-hander Andrew Cashner have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (via Twitter) that Cashner, a client of CAA Sports, will earn $7.15MM in 2016 — his final trip through the arbitration cycle before qualifying for free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had pegged Cashner for a $7MM salary in 2016, so he’ll top that projection by about two percent.
Cashner, 29, recorded a 4.34 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate across 184 2/3 innings with the Padres last season. Cashner was a fairly well-regarded pitching prospect when rising through the Cubs’ ranks and has emerged as a solid starter with the Friars, even if injuries have limited his value somewhat. This past season’s relatively high ERA notwithstanding, Cashner has been effective over the past three years, totaling a 3.43 ERA in 483 innings with the Padres. If he can replicate that ERA and remain healthy over the course of a full season, he’ll enter next season’s thin market of starting pitching as one of the more desirable arms available.
With Cashner’s agreement in place, the Padres have just one case remaining — that of staff ace Tyson Ross — as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Ross is projected to earn $10MM next season.
Blue Jays, Drew Storen Avoid Arbitration
The Blue Jays and newly acquired closer Drew Storen have agreed to terms on a one-year, $8.375MM contract, thereby avoiding arbitration, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). Toronto picked up Storen, a CAA client, in a swap that sent Ben Revere to the Nationals. His salary is a little less than five percent shy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection.
Storen, 28, should anchor the Toronto bullpen this season — his final year before becoming eligible for free agency. The former first-round pick spent much of the 2015 season as Washington’s closer but accepted a demotion to a setup role when the team acquired Jonathan Papelbon. Storen recorded a 3.44 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 with 29 saves in 55 innings in his final year with the Nationals.
Padres Closing In On Deal With Fernando Rodney
The Padres and right-hander Fernando Rodney are closing in on a contract, according to Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Rodney, who turns 39 this spring, is expected to enter camp as the favorite to close games in San Diego, per Heyman. Recently, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres were still in the mix for Rodney and could offer ninth-inning time as a means of enticing him. Rodney is represented by Octagon.
Rodney spent most of the past two seasons in Seattle, although his second season as the Mariners’ closer didn’t go nearly as well as the first. After recording a 2.85 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate in 2014, the “Fernando Rodney Experience” turned sour in Seattle when he struggled to a 5.68 ERA and lost the grip on the closer’s role in 2015. Rodney would go on to rebound following a DFA and a trade to the Cubs, however, as he surrendered just one earned run with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio in 12 innings with the Cubs and made the team’s postseason roster.
While Rodney’s career has been somewhat of a roller coaster, the veteran has posted a cumulative 2.80 ERA over the past four seasons and still averaged a very healthy 94.7 mph on his fastball between time with Seattle and Chicago last season. If a deal is finalized and Rodney does indeed land ninth-inning duties for the Friars. he’ll be supported by a cast of setup men including Kevin Quackenbush, Drew Pomeranz and Nick Vincent, as right-hander Brandon Maurer is slated to re-enter the rotation in Spring Training.
Phillies Avoid Arbitration With Jeremy Hellickson
The Phillies and right-hander Jeremy Hellickson have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal that will pay the offseason trade acquisition an even $7MM in 2016, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client will top his $6.6MM projection (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) by about six percent in his final trip through the arbitration process. Hellickson, 29 in April, is eligible for free agency next winter.
The D-backs acquired Hellickson in a trade with the Rays last offseason with the hope that he could return to the levels that saw him win the AL Rookie of the Year Award back in 2011 at the age of 24. However, while Hellickson remained healthier than he was in 2014, his overall results weren’t what the D-backs had envisioned. The right-hander posted a 4.62 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate in his lone season with Arizona.
Philadelphia will, like the D-backs last offseason, take on Hellickson hoping that he can return to form but knowing that even if that scenario doesn’t play out, he’ll eat some innings for a young and inexperienced staff that could use some veteran depth. The price tag on Hellickson, financially speaking, might be a bit steeper than simply signing a veteran innings eater on the free-agent market — Philadelphia paid Aaron Harang $5MM last season, for instance — but Hellickson comes with more upside than many veteran innings eaters that might come with a lower cost. If he performs well this year, Hellickson could conceivably emerge as a July trade chip and net a useful piece for the Phillies’ future.
With Hellickson’s agreement reportedly in place, the Phillies have now avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. The Phillies came to terms with Jeanmar Gomez and Freddy Galvis over the past two days as well, while Peter Bourjos settled his case last month.
