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Archives for January 2016

Astros Notes: Cespedes, Keuchel, Castro, Breach Scandal

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Here’s the latest from Minute Maid Park…

  • Three different executives tell Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that the Astros are a team to watch on Yoenis Cespedes.  It seems as if Cespedes’ market is picking up a lot of steam, though there’s still little in the way of solid information about which teams are most ardently pursuing the free agent outfielder.  At first glance, Houston doesn’t seem to have a spot for Cespedes with Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez in left and center, plus George Springer in right field and Evan Gattis at DH.  Then again, the Astros were also recently connected to Ender Inciarte in trade talks with the Braves, indicating that they might not be entirely satisfied with their current outfield mix.  Signing Cespedes would either shift Rasmus to a DH time-share with Gattis, or perhaps one of Houston’s current outfielders would be traded.  Of the trio, Rasmus can’t be dealt without his permission until June 15 since he accepted the Astros’ one-year qualifying offer.
  • After avoiding arbitration with Dallas Keuchel on his 2016 contract, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he still hopes to lock Keuchel up on a multi-year deal.  “If we can get additional control beyond [2018,] we’re certainly going to attempt to do that,” Luhnow said. “The allure of free agency as players get closer gets more and more attractive. It gets more difficult the more success a player has and the closer he gets to free agency [to sign him]. We’re going to keep trying.”  Keuchel’s agent, Darek Braunecker, said in early January that the two sides hadn’t yet had any extension talks this winter.
  • The Astros don’t adhere to a strict “file-and-go” strategy with players who don’t come to an agreement before the arbitration filing deadline, though the club plans to indeed go to a hearing with catcher Jason Castro, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports.  “It’s perfectly clear that Jason’s arbitration case is 100 percent file and go,” a source familiar with the negotiations told Drellich. “Given that fact, I see no way this case could settle at this point.”  The Astros offered Castro a $5MM salary for 2016 while Castro filed for $5.25MM.  (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Castro for a $4.6MM salary.)  It isn’t yet clear if Houston is also intent on going to a hearing with Evan Gattis, the team’s only other arb-eligible player who is still without an agreement.
  • In another piece from Drellich, he looks at what could be next for the Astros and Cardinals in the data breach scandal involving the two clubs once former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa is sentenced in April.  (For a refresher on this unusual situation, click here and here.)  More information about what was accessed from the Astros’ proprietary data network could come to light at Correa’s sentencing hearing, and Drellich speaks to several attorneys and security sources about what the next steps could be for both teams, Correa and Major League Baseball.  While the league could punish the Cards with a fine or taking away draft picks, it may be harder for the Astros to claim they should be compensated themselves.

Diamondbacks Temporarily Halt Extension Talks With A.J. Pollock

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The Diamondbacks have, at least temporarily, stopped negotiations with outfielder A.J. Pollock on a contract extension, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  In a text to Piecoro, Snakes GM Dave Stewart said of the negotiations that “We, both sides, have for the time being put that away.”

Pollock is the only one of Arizona’s eight arbitration-eligible players who didn’t reach an agreement before last Friday’s deadline, with Pollock filing for $3.9MM and the team countering with a $3.65MM offer for a 2016 contract.  (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.3MM figure for Pollock.)  With such a modest gap between the two sides, you would think Pollock and the D’Backs stand a good chance at reaching an agreement before the matter goes to an arbitration hearing.

Both Pollock and the Diamondbacks expressed interest in working out a long-term deal in the wake of his breakout 2015 season.  Pollock hit .315/.367/.498 with 20 homers, 39 steals and 111 runs scored in 673 plate appearances last year, and also won a Gold Glove for center field defense that impressed both voters and the advanced metrics (14 Defensive Runs Saved, +6.5 UZR/150).  His 6.6 fWAR was topped by only seven other position players in baseball.  Pollock’s big season and three remaining years of team control made him a hot commodity on the trade market this winter, with teams like the Braves and Indians asking for Pollock when the D’Backs inquired about their top starting pitchers.

It’s clear that the D’Backs see Pollock as a key part of their future, with team CEO Derrick Hall recently describing the center fielder as “almost untouchable” in trade talks.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams described in that last link, however, Pollock is something of a tricky extension candidate given his age (he just turned 28) and a relative lack of leverage on Arizona’s part.  Pollock will already get a nice payday in his first arb-eligible season and he’s scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 season, so he may not feel the urgency to sign an extension now and delay that potentially very lucrative trip to the free agent market by even a year or two — obviously he’d stand a better chance of scoring a major free agent contract entering his age-31 season than he would entering his age-33 season, for instance.

With all this in mind, perhaps it isn’t surprising that the extension talks are on hold for now.  It’s also possible that the two sides will get Pollock’s 2016 contract out of the way first before again exploring multi-year scenarios, or the topic could be held off until after the 2016 season entirely.

Cafardo’s Latest: Lee, Freese, Victorino, Lincecum

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In order to keep players healthy, reducing the schedule or expanding roster sizes could be topics of discussion in the next collective bargaining agreement, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The latter idea could be more likely, as many owners would balk at the idea of losing revenue with fewer games on the schedule.  Roster expansion could take the form of teams having a 28-man active roster, but only 25 players are eligible for any game day.  As Cafardo notes, teams are essentially wasting three or four roster spots under the current rules since those spots are used for starting pitchers who won’t get into the game.  Here’s some hot stove news from Cafardo’s latest column…

  • Cliff Lee is still something of a question mark for some teams, as it’s unclear as to whether Lee will be able to pitch on Opening Day or around midseason.  Agent Darek Braunecker recently said his client would be 100 percent ready if he decided to pitch in a showcase for teams, though an AL official tells Cafardo that he didn’t know much about how Lee was progressing after missing all of 2015 with a flexor tendon tear that wasn’t surgically repaired.  Two NL officials tell Cafardo that Lee is looking for a big base salary and a spot on a contending team, which ties into Braunecker’s previous comment about how Lee needs a “perfect fit” in order to return to pitching.
  • Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox could make a play for David Freese if the third baseman is still available by Spring Training.  Boston already has Pablo Sandoval at the hot corner, though Sandoval struggles so much against southpaws that Freese (a right-handed hitter) could surely get at-bats against left-handed pitching.  Though Freese went into the offseason as the top player in a thin free agent market for first basemen, he hasn’t generated a lot of buzz on the rumor mill outside of some talks with the Angels in December before the Halos acquired Yunel Escobar to fill their third base void.  If Freese was indeed willing to take a backup or platoon role, I’d suggest he might look at teams who can provide a clearer path to playing time than the Red Sox, who also have Brock Holt, Deven Marrero and Travis Shaw as backup third base options.
  • “We have a couple of teams that have been nibbling, but don’t know when they become fully engaged,” agent John Boggs said about his client Shane Victorino.  It could be that interest picks up in the veteran once other free agent outfielders leave the market.
  • An executive for an NL team says Tim Lincecum is generally seen as “inventory” around the league.  Lincecum was said to be hoping to hold a showcase this month to prove his health following September hip surgery and enhance his stock.  Perhaps given this health concern, only two teams (the Marlins and Giants) have been linked to Lincecum in recent months.  “For the moment, ties with the Giants have been severed,” Cafardo writes, though “who knows” if the two sides could agree to a reunion.

Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?

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The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.

In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?

Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.

So, here’s your chance to weigh in:

AL Notes: Rays, A’s, Jays, O’s

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The Rays won an important political battle late last week in the St. Petersburg City Council, as Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Under the deal that the council approved, the ballclub will have the opportunity to explore possible stadium sites in two neighboring counties for the next three years. Team owner Stuart Sternberg suggested that there’s no plan in place for a new location. “We haven’t done it before,” he said. “I don’t know if it takes a week or six months to identify and figure out a site.” But the organization made clear that it is aiming for something more than bare function. “We want to build the first of the next generation of baseball stadiums,” said president Brian Auld.

  • In other stadium news, Athletics majority owner John Fisher is said to be more involved than usual as his club considers possibilities for a new park, as Phil Matier and Andy Ross of the San Francisco Chronicle report. While managing partner Lew Wolff has traditionally been the public face of ownership, Fisher is believed to control 80% of the shares.
  • Change continues to filter through the Blue Jays organization, which has recently announced two front office hirings. Mike Murov will come over from the Red Sox to serve as the director of baseball operations, in which role (says the team) he’ll “assist in the preparation and analysis of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation and arbitration preparation.” And Toronto also recently added Gil Kim to their organization as well. Formerly the international scouting director for the Rangers, Kim will serve as the Jays’ director of player development.
  • The Orioles have given a promotion to the head of their analytics department, Sarah Gelles, as David Laurila of Fangraphs discusses (among other things) in his Sunday notes column. Now the organization’s Director of Analytics and Major League Contracts, Gelles discusses the development of the club’s analytical efforts, which she helped drive as an intern working for now-Phillies GM Matt Klentak.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/17/16

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves right here:

  • The Cubs have re-signed infielder Logan Watkins on a minor league pact, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. He missed the 2015 campaign with an Achilles injury, but appears to be back to full heath now, per the report. Watkins, 26, saw brief duty in the majors over 2013-14. He spent most of his time in those years at Triple-A, putting up a cumulative .249/.330/.372 slash over 840 plate appearances while contributing 33 stolen bases.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: D’Backs, Dodgers, Yanks

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Here’s the latest chatter from blogs around the game:

Please send submissions to Zach Links at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies

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Here’s the latest from around the league:

  • With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
  • The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
  • Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
  • The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes’ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.

More Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Orioles’ big re-signing of Chris Davis to a franchise record seven-year, $161MM contract. Here are a few more takes that have piled up throughout the day.

  • The re-signing of Davis is a huge boost to the O’s lineup, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. It’s about more than his ability to bash 40 to 50 home runs. Davis is among the leaders in hard hit rate as measured by FanGraphs. That was also true in his highly effective 2013 campaign. Hard hit rate not only improves a hitter’s chance to hit a home run, it also help other balls in play to fall. Justice would like the club to find another bat – perhaps Yoenis Cespedes – to support the middle of the lineup. The Orioles were also tied to the Rockies glut of left-handed outfielders. Either Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson would represent a monetarily affordable alternative to add lineup depth.
  • Re-signing Davis was about continuity too, writes Eduardo A Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The O’s have built a good clubhouse culture under manager Buck Showalter. He said, “I think the other thing that [this signing] represents is the continuity we’ve established with our coaching staff and players.” The front office did grow frustrated in their negotiations and nearly walked away as recently as last Thursday. Angelos made one final offer on Friday night, and talks quickly gained momentum. Encina goes on to say Baltimore’s pursuit of Cespedes is over now unless he’s willing to take a two-year deal.
  • Give owner Peter Angelos credit, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. As has long been reported, he was the driving force in keeping negotiations with Davis alive. While the lineup looks better with Davis, the club still has work to do before finalizing the roster. In particular, Dan Duquette may need to chase pitching on the trade market. Few teams are marketing starters at the moment, with the Rays as the most vocal sellers.
  • Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wonders if Angelos was willing to accept a higher team budget if Davis re-signed. We often assume teams have relatively fixed budgets, but the reality of the matter is that they can be player dependent. In Angelos’ mind, a team with Davis on the roster might be worth a larger investment than a team with another slugger. It’s tempting to say that the Orioles could have signed X, Y, and Z with that $161MM, but maybe the alternative only involved $90MM to spend.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Pirates

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The Cubs are eyeing their own television network for when their current deal expires in 2020, writes Jesse Rogers of ESPN. If the team goes the route of running their own network, they could launch something as soon as 2018. For now they continue to talk to outside suitors. President of business operations Crane Kenney said, “as we have conversations, which are ongoing, if someone offers us something dramatically better we’ll look at it.” He also noted that ongoing issues in the cable universe would be monitored.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Theo Epstein sees himself “staying in the exact same role for a long time,” reports Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Epstein’s contract with the Cubs expires after the 2016 season, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s any chance he’ll go elsewhere. Notably, ace pitcher Jake Arrieta is the club’s only unsigned arbitration player. Per Epstein, “I’m more worried about the team. Honestly, I want to take care of the players first, and then we’ll go from there.” Reading between the lines, it sounds like owner Tom Ricketts and Epstein may resolve their talks once Arrieta’s contract is finalized.
  • The Cardinals hope catcher Yadier Molina will be available for Opening Day, but they’re hunting for backups just in case, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Molina had a setback recovering from a thumb injury which has put his early season status in jeopardy. The team does have reliable backup Brayan Pena on the roster, but the only other catcher on the 40-man is minor leaguer Mike Ohlman.
  • Jon Niese could be Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage’s next project, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Searage has developed a reputation as a pitching “wizard” after working with Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, J.A. Happ, and others. The Pirates have benefited greatly from Searage’s tutelage as they’ve maximized the value of their buy-low trades and free agent pitching contracts. I’d add that Juan Nicasio is another reclamation project to watch.

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