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Archives for July 2016

Blue Jays, Erik Kratz Agree To Minors Deal

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The Blue Jays and veteran catcher Erik Kratz have agreed to a minor league pact, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. He’ll join Triple-A Buffalo and provide the organization with some depth behind the plate. Kratz was designated for assignment by Pittsburgh last week and elected free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment to the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate.

Kratz, 36, has spent time with the Astros and Pirates at the big league level this season but struggled to a .094/.105/.153 batting line in 87 plate appearances. He entered the season with 23 home runs and a .218/.270/.397 batting line as a Major Leaguer though, demonstrating solid pop for a catcher even if his average and OBP skills are typically lacking. He’s also halted an above-average 34 percent of stolen base attempts against him over the life of his career and drawn consistently strong marks in the pitch-framing department from Baseball Prospectus.

This will be the second stint with the Blue Jays for the Jackson Management Group client, who appeared in 34 games with Toronto back in 2014. Kratz will join Tony Sanchez and A.J. Jimenez in a now somewhat crowded catching mix at Triple-A.

Rangers Acquire Lucas Harrell, Dario Alvarez

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The Rangers have added some depth to their rotation and bullpen, announcing the acquisition of right-handed starter Lucas Harrell and left-hander reliever Dario Alvarez from the Braves in exchange for minor league second baseman Travis Demeritte. Texas has designated infielder Matt Duffy for assignment to clear room on the 40-man roster. Both Harrell and Alvarez will join the big league club right away, per the Rangers’ announcement.

[Related: Updated Texas Rangers Depth Chart]

Harrell, 31, signed a minor league contract with the Tigers this offseason and opened the year pitching with Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate. After hitting the open market in late May, Harrell inked another minors pact, this time with the Braves, and worked his way up into Atlanta’s big league rotation, where he’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate in 29 1/3 innings spanning five starts.

Harrell broke into the Majors with the 2010 White Sox but didn’t find his first success until the 2012 season, when he tossed 193 2/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball and made 32 starts for the Astros. Harrell looked at that point to have a chance at establishing himself as a long-term option at the back of the Houston rotation, but he struggled in two subsequent seasons and ultimately landed with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2015, where he also struggled over a full season’s workload out of the rotation. Harrell, though, has pitched well at all of his minor league stops this season and looked useful enough in the Braves’ rotation to have reportedly garnered trade interest from a handful of teams.

Alvarez, too, was a midseason addition for the Braves, who claimed him off waivers from the Mets back on May 25. The 27-year-old hadn’t experienced much in the way of big league success prior to this season despite a lifetime 2.97 ERA in the minors, but he’s yielded just five earned runs on 11 hits and five walks with a whopping 28 strikeouts through 15 Major League innings since being claimed by the Braves. It’s a small sample, to be sure, but Alvarez’s velocity is up two miles per hour (averaging 93.5 mph) over his previous stints with the Mets, and he’s doubled the usage of his slider, which appears to have led to considerably improved results. The Rangers clearly were impressed by the gains he’s made in 2016, and if they prove to be sustainable, Texas will have control of Alvarez for another five years beyond the 2016 season, so there’s some long-term potential here.

That the Braves were able to turn a pair of May additions into Demeritte is a fairly notable surprise. While the 21-year-old doesn’t rank among the game’s top 100 prospects or even the top 10 farmhands within the Texas organization, the former first-round pick entered the season rated 20th among Rangers prospects per MLB.com and 28th per Baseball America. He struggled last season and was hit with an 80-game PED suspension but has had a rebound year with Texas’ Class-A Advanced affiliate, batting .272/.352/.583 with 25 home runs and 13 stolen bases. MLB.com notes that he has more power than a typical second baseman but has long been far too aggressive at the plate. That hasn’t changed this year, as Demeritte has whiffed in more than a third of his plate appearances in Class-A in spite of his power.

The 27-year-old Duffy, not to be confused with the Giants third baseman of the same name, was claimed off waivers out of the Astros organization last month. He’s a career .272/.340/.438 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons but has totaled just 12 plate appearances at the Major League level — all coming with Houston.

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported that Harrell and Alvarez had been traded. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported that the Rangers were getting each player. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that Demeritte was heading back to Atlanta in the deal.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels On Trade For Lucas Harrell, Dario Alvarez

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The Rangers addressed their pitching staff earlier today when they acquired pitchers Lucas Harrell and Dario Alvarez from the Braves for second base prospect Travis Demeritte. The price was seemingly high—Demeritte was a starter in this year’s All-Star Futures Game—for two pitchers who had very little value when picked up by the Braves in late May. Harrell was signed to a Minor League contract four days after he was released by the Tigers. Alvarez was claimed off waivers from the Mets. But with pitching being the Rangers’ top priority, general manager Jon Daniels was able to acquire two pitchers who could help in 2016 and are not yet eligible for arbitration. In a conference call earlier today, Jon Daniels explained his thinking behind the deal.

Described by Daniels as “a sinker-baller who’s going well right now,”  the 31-year-old Harrell will be reunited with current Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail, whom he knows from his days with the Astros. Daniels said that Brocail’s assessment of Harrell was “more of a confirmation of what we thought” and the expectation is that he’ll be a part of their rotation. After tossing six shutout innings in his final Braves start on Tuesday, Harrell is lined up for a home start against the Royals on Sunday.

In regards to his new lefty reliever, Daniels called the 27-year-old Alvarez, who has allowed five earned runs in his 15 innings of work with an amazing 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a “real interesting guy” with “deceptive delivery and plus velocity.” He also mentioned that this was Alvarez’s first time with an extended run in the Major Leagues. “Sometimes you have to take a chance before a guy’s a household name”, said Daniels, who did just that when he traded for Sam Dyson on the last day of the 2015 trade deadline and has seen him blossom into a successful late-inning arm.

Asked if he was done addressing his pitching staff and if there was a possibility that he would acquire a non-pitcher before Monday’s deadline, Daniels said that he wouldn’t rule anything out. “We’re still having additional conversations”, he said, adding that pitching remains his team’s top priority.

Bullpen Rumors: Davis, Dodgers, Johnson, Hochevar, Nationals, Jays

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Royals closer Wade Davis is “someone who interests the Dodgers,” reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The Dodgers, of course, have one of the best closers in all of baseball in the form of Kenley Jansen and actually rank first in the National League in bullpen ERA, but as Heyman notes, that didn’t stop the club from pursuing a massive bullpen upgrade this winter when they made a run at Aroldis Chapman. The Dodgers have been plagued all season by rotation injuries, and adding a reliever of Davis’ ilk would lessen the workload from a starting staff that is presently a bit of a question mark for Los Angeles. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is quite familiar with Davis, having drafted him while serving eas GM of the Rays. Davis, 30, has a 1.10 ERA in 32 2/3 innings this season and has a $10MM club option on his contract for the 2017 season. Theoretically, he could step into the ninth inning for the Dodgers next season if a trade does come to fruition, though it’d be a surprise if they didn’t at least attempt to re-sign Jansen.

A few more notes on the market for relievers…

  • The Braves are getting some hits on right-hander Jim Johnson, per ESPN’s Jayson Stark. With Lucas Harrell traded to the Rangers and little interest in names like Erick Aybar and Gordon Beckham to this point, Johnson could seemingly be the next Braves chip to move. He’s toting a pedestrian 4.58 ERA on the season but, as Stark points out, has pitched to a much improved 2.49 ERA since coming off the disabled list in early June. His strong 56 percent ground-ball rate and respectable marks of 7.6 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 lead ERA estimators to project a mark more in the mid-3.00s than his current figure, and Johnson’s $2.5MM salary figures to be appealing to clubs looking for an affordable middle relief arm.
  • Royals righty Luke Hochevar is a potential target for the Giants as San Francisco searches for relief upgrades, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Hochevar’s name hasn’t been out there much, but the mutual option on his contract means that he’ll almost certainly be a free agent at season’s end, as such options are rarely exercised. The former No. 1 overall pick has settled in as a quality bullpen arm in Kansas City and has recovered nicely from 2014 Tommy John surgery, as he owns a 3.86 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate in 37 1/3 innings this year. While his velocity isn’t at its 95.5 mph peak from the 2013 season, he’s still averaging a strong 94.4 mph in 2016, and SIERA pegs him at a more favorable 3.16.
  • The walk-off loss suffered by the Nationals last night following a blown save from Jonathan Papelbon has only intensified their pursuit of a dynamic late-inning relief arm, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Washington has been tied to a number of bullpen arms as of late, including Davis, Andrew Miller and David Robertson. FOX’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Nats considered Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Reynaldo Lopez and Victor Robles untouchable in Chapman talks, so one can imagine that they’d be reluctant to part with any of those names in other trade talks (though Miller’s two years of control beyond 2016 might at least make such an idea more palatable).
  • Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link), that following yesterday’s acquisition of Joaquin Benoit, Toronto is “probably” more likely to pursue rotation help than additional bullpen depth.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that given the high asking price for impact relievers and the desire of clubs like the Nationals and Giants to acquire such an arm, it makes sense for the Pirates to listen to offers on Mark Melancon. Left-hander Tony Watson could step into the ninth inning in his stead, and Melancon would be a highly sought-after commodity that could bring back a significant return for the Bucs. Earlier this morning, I discussed that very possibility with Josh Taylor of TribLive Radio in Pittsburgh (link), suggesting that the Pirates have the pitching depth to absorb the loss and could recoup greater value right now than through a potential qualifying offer, which seems unlikely from the budget-conscious Pirates anyhow. There’s yet to be any concrete word that Pittsburgh will market its closer, however.

Indians Among Teams With Interest In Steve Pearce

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The Indians are among the teams that have reached out to the Rays with interest in infielder/outfielder Steve Pearce, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Cleveland is reportedly also considering Eduardo Nunez of the Twins, so it seems evident that the club has interest in a solid hitter with some defensive versatility.

From an outsider perspective, third base and the corner outfield appear to be two potential areas of concern for a high-performing Indians club. Either of these players could conceivably function in those spots, though they carry rather different profiles.

Pearce, 33, is a pending free agent and is owed just $4.75MM this year. He has had trouble staying healthy, but is putting up a ridiculous .313/.386/.530 batting line over his 223 plate appearances. Interestingly, Pearce has seen action at third this year, but only on two occasions — marking only the second season in his career in which he has spent any time at all on the hot corner. He moved into the eighth spot on MLBTR’s latest listing of the top trade candidates, based on his hot bat and expiring contract.

There’s no question whether Nunez can handle third, as he plays primarily there and at shortstop. He has been a solidly above-average hitter since the beginning of 2015, though certainly doesn’t possess the kind of upside that Pearce does at the plate. Nunez is also a threat to steal — he owns a career-high 26 swipes this year — though he doesn’t generate enormous value on the bases overall per Fangraphs’ BsR rating. Additionally, he’s cheaper and can be controlled for another season via arbitration.

The Indians, it would seem, are exploring a number of targets in advance of Monday’s non-waiver trade deadline. They’ve been linked to the likes of Jay Bruce in recent weeks and earlier tonight were once again connected to Jonathan Lucroy (and lefty reliever Will Smith) of the Brewers. It shouldn’t come as a great surprise to see Cleveland linked to a wide array of bats, as the team boasts one of the best rotations in all of baseball but has seen dismal production at both catcher and third base this season. The club’s outfield unit has been surprisingly productive despite the fact that Michael Brantley, arguably Cleveland’s best overall player, has appeared in just 11 games in 2016 as he battles a troublesome shoulder injury. However, acquiring a corner outfielder would allow Cleveland to shift the versatile Jose Ramirez to third base, giving president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff plenty of flexibility when attempting to bolster the offense.

Prince Fielder To Undergo Season-Ending Neck Surgery

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JULY 27: Fielder will undergo surgery to repair a C4/C5 herniation on Friday, according to an announcement from Rangers executive vice president of communications John Blake (Twitter link).

JULY 25: The Rangers expect that first baseman Prince Fielder will undergo neck surgery later this week, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports on Twitter. There had been some hope that the veteran slugger could avoid a procedure after his recent diagnosis of a herniated disk, but it seems that Fielder is destined to go under the knife.

Details remain unknown, but it seems all but certain that Fielder will miss the remainder of the season. It won’t be the first trip through the process for the veteran, who also ended the 2014 campaign after a neck operation. He bounced back quite well last year, but has never gotten things going in 2016.

The loss of Fielder doesn’t feel terribly consequential, somewhat surprisingly, because he has struggled so badly this year. Despite never finishing a season at anything worse than an approximately league-average batting line, he has limped to a .212/.292/.334 slash. That’s nearly as far off of the league mean (65 OPS+) as Fielder was above it last season (126 OPS+). And it’s a far sight from his peak, when he was one of the better hitters in baseball.

The Rangers will have several alternatives for the immediate future, including expanding the role of youngster Jurickson Profar and, perhaps, eventually giving minor league slugger Joey Gallo a full shot in the majors. But there’s also certainly a chance that the club will look to add a hitter from outside the organization over the next week.

In the longer term, it’s not clear how much value Texas can hope to receive out of Fielder’s monster contract. He’s on the books for $18MM annually for the next four campaigns, even after the team that signed him (the Tigers) kicks in its $6MM per year. It hurts even more to see Ian Kinsler — the player for whom Fielder was dealt in a big-contract swap — putting up one of his best seasons as a big leaguer this year in Detroit.

Reds “Picking Up The Pace” On Jay Bruce Trade Talks; Mariners Interested

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JULY 27: The Mariners are among the teams that have reached out the Reds to inquire about Bruce, Crasnick reports today (Twitter link). Seattle’s offseason addition of Nori Aoki has yet to pay dividends, causing the Mariners to rely more heavily on Franklin Gutierrez and Nelson Cruz in the outfield than the team initially expected.

JULY 26: The Reds have “picked up the pace” on trade talks surrounding slugging right fielder Jay Bruce and are talking to “at least” four teams, according to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). Cincinnati is seeking a top prospect in exchange for Bruce, who is in the midst of an outstanding rebound campaign at the plate.

Bruce, 29, underwent arthroscopic knee surgery early in the 2014 season and never looked like himself upon his return that year or in 2015. Over those two seasons, Bruce batted a paltry .222/.288/.406 with a combined 44 home runs, submarining a great deal of his trade value in the process (though Cincinnati still nearly moved him to Toronto in Spring Training). The 2016 season, however, has yielded a revitalized version of Bruce that is slashing an excellent .272/.326/.564 with 23 homers, 22 doubles and six triples. His 20.6 percent strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career, and 20.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio and 37.5 percent hard-contact rate are the best single-season marks he’s ever posted.

Where Bruce has seemingly struggled, though, is on the outfield grass. Despite sporting a park- and league-adjusted batting line that is 29 percent above league average, per wRC+, and 32 percent above league average, per OPS+, defensive metrics feel that Bruce has mitigated the majority of the value provided by his bat. Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved both peg Bruce as 12 runs below the league average right fielder, dinging him for both his range and his arm. Bruce graded out as a serviceable, if not above-average fielder last season, though, and he rated among the game’s top defenders in right field back in 2013 as well (prior to his knee surgery). Scouts, of course, will have their own take on Bruce’s glovework, and it’s certainly possible that there are evaluators out there that find such metrics to overstate Bruce’s statistical deficiencies this season. And, even if on is to believe that Bruce’s defensive game has dramatically deteriorated, his resurgent bat makes plenty of sense for an American League club that can give him significant time in the DH slot.

Bruce is earning $12.5MM this season — of which about $4.71MM remains — and has what now looks to be a reasonably priced $13MM club option on his contract as well. Bruce’s six-year, $51MM extension provides him with the ability to block trades to eight clubs, but he’s reportedly willing to waive his no-trade protection in order to play for a contending club. He’s been connected to the Dodgers, Orioles, Giants, Nationals, Rangers and Indians in the past week, and Toronto has been mentioned multiple times as a potential fit. More recent reports, though, have indicated that Cleveland isn’t in the mix for Bruce at this time. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, acquired Melvin Upton Jr. earlier today.

Trade Market For Third Basemen

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Third base has been a largely productive position for big league clubs this season, and even teams that have seen their primary options go down due to injury (i.e. the Royals and the Mets) have received solid if not above-average production from their replacements. That shrinks the number of clubs that would conceivably look to buy at the hot corner, though there are a few contenders that make sense. Cleveland, for instance, hasn’t received great production out of Juan Uribe and could shift him to a bench role with a meaningful third base upgrade. The Giants have had a carousel at the hot corner with Matt Duffy on the shelf, and the Cardinals last week placed Jhonny Peralta on the disabled list with an injury to the same thumb that cost him the first few months of the 2016 season. Other clubs could simply look to add a versatile piece (possibly with remaining club control) that could not only handle third base but a few other positions. And, as luck would have it, there are plenty such names available…

Short-Term Veterans

Todd Frazier: The White Sox are opening to offers on the majority of their roster, and while Frazier comes with plenty of name value and plenty of power, his overall production has been a bit of a letdown. Frazier’s 29 homers trail only Mark Trumbo for the Major League lead, but he’s hitting .212/.299/.475 this season. His 10.4 percent walk rate is a career-best, and there’s some poor luck in terms of BABIP (.200), but part of that low average on balls in play is due to an enormous 22 percent infield-fly rate, so he shouldn’t be expected to rebound to the league average. Frazier’s 24 percent strikeout rate is a career worst as well. Still, he’s teeming with power, earning just $8.25MM this year and owed one more raise in arbitration before free agency. The Sox probably place a high value on him, as they’re not indicating a full rebuild is in the offing.

Yunel Escobar: The .326/.372/.418 batting line that Escobar has produced this season is a near-mirror image of his .314/.375/.415 slash from his strong 2015 season with the Nationals. However, the sub-par defense he’s playing at the hot corner is also a close approximation of last season as well. That’s essentially who Escobar is, though: an average to above-average hitter with a questionable glove. He’s on a reasonable $7MM salary for the 2016 season and has a 2017 club option for the same rate, making him attractive from a financial standpoint. Escobar’s personality has drawn some questionable reviews in the past, but he received an endorsement as a teammate from Hector Santiago earlier this summer.

Danny Valencia: Whether Valencia has fallen out of favor with the A’s or Oakland simply wants to see Ryon Healy on an everyday basis to gauge his future, Valencia has lost his starting third base gig in spite of a robust .299/.351/.481 slash line this season. His defense has been abysmal, per both UZR and DRS, though he’s drawn at least competent marks from each of those metrics in the seasons leading up to 2016. Detractors will claim that Valencia’ productivity is a short-term fluke, but he’s somewhat quietly mashed at a .294/.348/.502 (131 OPS+) clip over his past 694 plate appearances. There are some clubhouse concerns here, and the defense is troubling as well, but Valencia has been an offensive force for more than a year and is controlled through 2017 via arbitration. He can probably handle some first base and left field as well.

Eduardo Nunez: Like Valencia, Nunez has quietly escalated his offensive profile dating back to Opening Day 2015. In 590 plate appearances since that time, the former Yankee is hitting .293/.326/.440 with 16 home runs and 34 stolen bases. Nunez is controlled through the 2017 season and is earning just $1.475MM this season, making him the most affordable option in this “short-term veteran” bucket. As a bonus, he’s capable of playing shortstop (where he’s played for most of the 2016 season), second base and left field as well, even if he’s not a great defender at any of the four spots. Nunez is popular among his teammates, but the disappointing Twins are likely open to moving any player within arm’s reach of free agency, and Nunez is reportedly one of their most asked-about names.

Controllable Assets

Yangervis Solarte: The Padres haven’t shied away from selling controllable pieces, and Solarte only has one more year of control than Drew Pomeranz, whom they already shipped out. He’s done nothing but hit in the Majors, is cheap for the time being, can play multiple positions and is in the midst of the best season of his career. The return for Chase Headley looked pretty light when the Padres got him, but Solarte has made it a great move for San Diego.

Jed Lowrie: Lowrie’s power has vanished, and he hasn’t played a lot of third base lately, but he’s experienced at the position and is hitting for average/OBP on an affordable contract for a clear-cut seller in Oakland. Like Solarte, he can move around the infield a bit and provide a team with at least a super-utility option if not a regular player at multiple positions.

Jonathan Villar: The Brewers needn’t feel compelled to move Villar, who is having a breakout season (.295/.377/.433 with an MLB-best 36 steals). He’s controllable through 2020, so if Milwaukee is to part with him, the return would need to be fairly significant. Orlando Arcia is going to push him off shortstop soon, but Villar could play second or third base, so that’s not much of a concern for the Brew Crew.

Logan Forsythe: The Rays have played Forsythe at second base almost exclusively, but he has a bit of experience at third and could probably handle the spot if needed. He’s continued his 2015 breakout with a .278/.339/.454 batting line this season and is affordable through the 2018 season via a $5.75MM salary next year and a club option for the 2018 season that’s valued at $8.5MM. If he continues at his current pace, those are both flat-out bargains. The Rays are selling, and $5.75MM next year is more to them than it is to most clubs.

Evan Longoria: I only mention Longoria due to some fairly vague speculation that the Dodgers would have interest in him — Longo is a known commodity for Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who previously headed up Tampa Bay’s baseball ops department — but that’s probably true of most teams in baseball. Longoria is in the midst of a brilliant rebound season at the plate, hitting .287/.336/.535 with 22 home runs. He’s playing his typically excellent defense at the hot corner and figures to finish out the season somewhere in the vicinity of five to six wins above replacement. He’s still just 30 years of age, so the $99MM he’s owed through 2022 is perfectly reasonable. The Rays would have to be overwhelmed to move him.

Reserves/Utility Options

Gordon Beckham (Braves), Brett Wallace (Padres), Eduardo Escobar (Twins), Andres Blanco/Freddy Galvis (Phillies), Adam Rosales/Alexi Amarista (Padres), Daniel Descalso (Rockies)

As we saw at both second base and shortstop, there’s a wide variety of utility types available. The asking price on most of these players wouldn’t be all that high, with Escobar as a possible exception due to his remaining club control and the fact that he was a very solid piece for Minnesota in 2014-15.

Big Contracts/Injured Players (i.e. August Options)

Chase Headley: Headley probably draws more criticism than he deserves, as he’s quietly batted .279/.341/.442 dating back to May 1 this season and is on pace for an overall above-average campaign. He comes with concerns about his durability, and there’s a perception among some fans that he’s a bust because he hasn’t played like a star even though he isn’t being paid like one in the first place. He’s owed $5.26MM through the end of this season plus another $13MM in 2017 and in 2018. That amount of money means the Yankees would probably have to absorb some cash to move him.

Trevor Plouffe: It looked reasonable for the Twins to trade Plouffe this winter when he was coming off a pair of solid seasons as Minnesota’s regular third baseman. Now, he’s in the midst of his second DL stint and sporting a lackluster .252/.283/.399 slash with seven homers and a $7.25MM salary. The Twins have moved Miguel Sano back to third base in part to clear room for Max Kepler and in part because Sano often looked lost in the outfield. That makes it tough to see where Plouffe fits into the long-term plan once he’s healthy. Down season aside, Plouffe is controllable through 2017 via arbitration and enjoyed a .251/.317/.429 run with 20-homer pop and solid defense from 2014-15, so one can envision him piquing the interest of corner-infield-needy clubs. (Plouffe also has recent experience at first base.)

Brett Lawrie: Reportedly headed to the disabled list due to a hamstring strain (per JJ Stankevitz of CSN Chicago), Lawrie’s injury makes him an unlikely candidate to be dealt this month. However, he could be an August option for teams in need of help at second or third base. He’s sporting a roughly league-average batting line, per OPS+ and wRC+, and offers a bit of pop and speed at either position. He’s making $4.125MM this year and has another year of control before hitting free agency following the 2017 season.

2017 Qualifying Offer Estimated At $16.7MM

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Current estimates on the 2017 qualifying offer have it priced at $16.7MM, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would represent a year-over-year rise of $900K.

That’s a rather standard increase for the qualifying offer, which is determined by averaging the league’s 125 contracts with the highest mean salaries. It sat at $15.8MM for the current year, after rising from $15.3MM in 2015, $14.1MM in 2014, and $13.3MM in the inaugural year of 2013.

Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.

The real question with the qualifying offer, though isn’t so much its specific price tag as it is the underlying rules. With a new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated at present, many have suggested that it’s one of the most important issues that is — or, at least, could be — on the table for change. Even if something gets done, though, it presumably wouldn’t go into effect for the coming offseason.

It’s not yet clear whether there’s any realistic possibility of modifications to a system that has had a notable dampening effect on the market experiences of numerous mid-level free agents in recent years. Players entering the market after declining the one-year qualifying offer come with the added cost of draft compensation. That has arguably forced certain good but not great players — those who have the toughest decisions to decline the QO — to shoulder an out-of-proportion piece of the dampening effect that the system imposes on player salaries.

Notably, this last offseason was the first in which any player accepted a qualifying offer — thus taking a one-year deal (admittedly, at a nice price) rather than rolling the dice on a stalled market situation. Matt Wieters of the Orioles, Brett Anderson of the Dodgers, and Colby Rasmus of the Astros all took the deal. The fact that some players have now elected to take the big one-year payday and re-enter the market could conceivably make teams think twice about slapping the offer on marginal candidates.

For those who aren’t familiar with the qualifying offer system, you can check out this old-but-good overview and read up on why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.

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