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2016 MLB Draft Primer

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The 2016 Rule 4 Amateur Draft will begin tonight at 7pm ET, when the Phillies will be on the clock with the first overall pick. For those who haven’t followed the draft in prior seasons or simply would like a refresher on the intricacies of the system, we’ll provide a quick recap in this post followed by a roundup of some of the top draft resources available to fans online.

Each team has an allotted spending pool from which their signing bonuses come. Major League Baseball has assigned a slot value to each pick in rounds one through 10, and a club’s draft pool is the sum of the slot values for each of their selections. Players selected after the 10th round do not count toward the pool, so long as they receive no more than $100K. Anything over $100K would count toward the pools (for instance, if the Mariners were to sign their 12th-round pick for $150K, then $50K would count against their draft pool). If a team does not spend the entirety of its draft pool, there’s no future bonus involved; leftover pool allotments do not carry over to the following draft, so it’s in a club’s best interest to maximize its allotments in each individual draft.

Exceeding the draft pool, however, is an entirely different story and comes with an escalating range of penalties, depending on the level of excess. Should a team exceed its draft pool by five percent, it will pay a 75 percent luxury tax on the overage. A five to 10 percent overage results in a 75 percent tax and the loss of next year’s first-round pick. A 10 to 15 percent overage results in a 100 percent tax and the loss of a first- and second-round pick in 2016. And, exceeding the draft pool by more than 15 percent results in a 100 percent tax and the loss of two future first-round picks.

However, teams are not bound to the individual slot values. They’re free to sign early picks under slot in order to go over slot for later selections (when some players have fallen due to signability concerns), and doing so is a common strategy for clubs with large pools. For instance, the Astros spent $6MM to sign No. 2 overall pick Alex Bregman last season despite a $7.421MM value for that slot, and they saved about $169K in signing No. 5 pick Kyle Tucker for $4MM. A large number of those savings went to their No. 37 overall selection, Daz Cameron, who had been considered a Top 10 caliber talent but slid to the compensation round as teams were wary of his asking price. Cameron’s slot came with a $1.668MM value, but Houston paid him a hefty $4MM with the savings from its top two selections and some additional under-slot value further down the board.

Under these rules, no team has been willing to pay the price of forfeiting a future pick, so no team has exceeded its pool by more than five percent. Excesses of up to five percent are commonplace, however, as the 75 percent luxury tax isn’t much of a deterrent to big league teams.

All that said, here’s a rundown of the draft order, slot values, the top ranked draft prospects (via multiple outlets) as well as mock drafts from some experts who have devoted seemingly endless hours of their time over the past few months to provide the best insight possible.

Draft Order (Slot Values via MLB.com’s Jim Callis)

  1. Phillies — $9.015MM
  2. Reds — $7.763MM
  3. Braves — $6.51MM
  4. Rockies — $5.529MM
  5. Brewers — $4.382MM
  6. Athletics — $4.069MM
  7. Marlins — $3.756MM
  8. Padres — $3.631MM
  9. Tigers — $3.506MM
  10. White Sox — $3.381MM
  11. Mariners — $3.287MM
  12. Red Sox — $3.193MM
  13. Rays — $3.099MM
  14. Indians — $2.974MM
  15. Twins — $2.817MM
  16. Angels — $2.661MM
  17. Astros — $2.504MM
  18. Yankees — $2.442MM
  19. Mets — $2.379MM
  20. Dodgers — $2.316MM
  21. Blue Jays — $2.285MM
  22. Pirates — $2.254MM
  23. Cardinals — $2.223MM
  24. Padres — $2.191MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Justin Upton, who rejected a qualifying offer)
  25. Padres — $2.160MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Ian Kennedy)
  26. White Sox — $2.129MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Jeff Samardzija)
  27. Orioles — $2.098MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Wei-Yin Chen)
  28. Nationals — $2.066MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Jordan Zimmermann)
  29. Nationals — $2.035MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Ian Desmond)
  30. Rangers — $2.003MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Yovani Gallardo)
  31. Mets — $1.972MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Daniel Murphy)
  32. Dodgers — $1.941MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Zack Greinke)
  33. Cardinals — $1.91MM (Compensation for loss of free agent Jason Heyward)
  34. Cardinals — $1.878MM (Compensation for loss of free agent John Lackey)

Clearly, the bonus pools are skewed by compensatory picks awarded to teams that see a pending free agent reject a one-year qualifying offer and sign elsewhere. This year, the Reds, Phillies, Padres and Braves have the largest bonus pools, and you can see a full breakdown of each pool here.

Draft Rankings/Scouting Reports

  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com have ranked the Top 200 players in this year’s draft class and provided free scouting reports on each player for the public. Callis and Mayo have video of each player, where applicable, and they also provide a rating of each prospect’s individual tools on the 20-80 scouting scale.
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com ranks the Top 100 prospects — headlined by Louisville outfielder Corey Ray — and his colleague, Eric Longenhagen, has a penned a full scouting report on each of the 100 players on the list. Their work requires an ESPN Insider subscription, though that’s a highly recommended purchase for this time of the year.
  • Baseball America provides the deepest list of draft prospects you’ll find online, as their rankings span to the Top 500 prospects in this year’s class. The rankings themselves, headlined by Florida left-hander A.J. Puk, are free to the public, but the individual scouting reports require a subscription that we also highly recommend with the Draft tonight and the July 2 international signing deadline looming.

Mock Drafts

  • Callis and Mayo released a side-by-side mock draft today in which they each take a stab at pegging all of the 34 picks listed above. They’re in agreement on the top four picks, believing that the Phillies will select high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, the Reds will select Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, the Braves will select Ray and the Rockies will select Puk. As is the case with their rankings and scouting reports, the MLB.com duo’s mock draft is free to the public as well.
  • Law’s most recent mock draft was published this morning. For the time being, he’s in agreement on Moniak going 1-1 to the Phillies but feels Puk will go second, with Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis going third overall to Atlanta. Law’s mock drafts require a subscription as well.
  • While BA’s scouting reports require a subscription, the fifth iteration of John Manuel’s mock draft (and the prior versions) are free for public viewing. Manuel, too, has Moniak as the top pick with Puk and Lewis going second and third overall. Prep righty Riley Pint is his pick at No. 4, and he has Ray going fifth to the Brewers.
  • It’s also worth noting that top draft prospect Delvin Perez, a high school shortstop out of Puerto Rico, has seen his draft stock slide precipitously since testing positive for an undisclosed performance enhancing substance. Perez’s upside initially had him projected as a Top 5 pick, but many believe that he’ll slide down toward the later first round. He’s something of a wild card in tonight’s draft.

Draft Prospect Interviews

MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom sat down with a number of the top names in this year’s draft class and conducted Q&As in which he asked the prospects about their skill sets, their backgrounds, their education, their big league aspirations and more. Those interested in getting a deeper look at some of the top prospects in the draft will want to check out the following interviews from our Draft Prospect Q&A series:

We’ll be tracking the action later tonight on a pick-by-pick basis and providing real-time updates for each selection here at MLBTR, and we will, as always, keep our readers posted as the various picks from this year’s class agree to terms with their new teams between now and the July 15 signing deadline for drafted players.

Giants Sign Travis Ishikawa To Minor League Deal

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The Giants are in agreement with first baseman/outfielder Travis Ishikawa on a minor league contract, as Damian Trujillo of NBC Bay Area first reported (on Twitter). Giants GM Bobby Evans confirmed the news to reporters last night, tweets Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area, citing a need for  depth at the position and stating that Ishikawa will report to Triple-A Sacramento as soon as possible.

The 32-year-old Ishikawa broke into the Majors with the Giants back in 2006 and has become somewhat of a folk hero among the Giants faithful due to his Herculean performance in the 2014 NLCS against the Cardinals, which culminated in a walk-off three-run homer to send the Giants to their third World Series in five years. Ishikawa took home a pair of rings with San Francisco (2010, 2014) and will now re-join the organization that originally drafted him (21st round, 2002) for a third stint.

Ishikawa began the 2016 season on a minors pact with the White Sox but struggled with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate, batting a mere .201/.277/.344 in 175 trips to the plate. The Sox cut him loose in late May, and he’ll now hope for better results and a return to the Majors with the Giants. The vast majority of Ishikawa’s Major League experience has come with San Francisco, but he’s also appeared with the Pirates, Brewers and, ever so briefly, with the Orioles (18 plate appearances) and Yankees (two PAs) as well. He’s a career .255/.321/.391 batter in 1050 Major League PAs and has also authored a .269/.355/.467 slash line in 1376 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

Latest On Yordano Ventura

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1:32pm: A source strongly contested the report that Ventura had been shopped, telling MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that it was “complete and utter nonsense.” GM Dayton Moore declined to address the matter, saying that “it’s highly inappropriate and reckless to discuss any specific trade talks about players with the media.”

Passan, meanwhile, stands by his report, which he says has since been corroborated by additional sources (Twitter link).

8:25am: Last night’s plunking of Manny Machado was the latest in a line of questionable actions from Royals righty Yordano Ventura, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes that his attitude is wearing thin on the Kansas City organization. Indeed, per the report, executives from at least two other teams say that the Royals have offered to deal Ventura away within the last month.

Expectations had been that the now-25-year-old with the high-octane fastball would be entrenched in the K.C. staff for years to come. After all, the club inked him to a five-year, $23MM extension before the start of the 2015 season. That deal also includes two option years valued at $12MM apiece.

There always seemed to be a bit of injury risk, but otherwise the pact seemed a nice bargain for a quality young arm. While he’s been healthy and still delivers mid-90s heat, however, Ventura has arguably been more provocative than productive on the mound over the last two years.

Ventura took a step back last year in the earned run department, seeing a year-over-year ERA shift from 3.20 to 4.08. But his peripherals all seemed in line with his prior work. It’s been different thus far in 2016, as Ventura has retired just six batters per nine innings via strikeout while issuing free passes at a rate of 4.8 BB/9. He’s allowing less groundballs to go with more contact and home runs. After last night’s outing, Ventura owns a 5.32 ERA in 66 innings over a dozen starts this year.

The extension once seemed an asset, but now may no longer have surplus value. Though we’re now one and a half years into the contract, the vast majority of the guarantee remains to be paid. Ventura has received just over $1MM of what he’s owed so far, with an escalating structure that mimics the arbitration process still to come. And there’s no doubt that other organizations will have concerns about Ventura’s questionable reputation and on-field antics.

It’s not exactly clear what Kansas City would be looking to accomplish via trade. Contenders would certainly hesitate to add Ventura to a rotation, and it’s a big commitment even if a club hoped to utilize his live arm in the pen. A swap that would allow the Royals to fill a need at the major league level without adding payroll could make some sense, though that’s just generalized speculation on my part.

Brewers To Designate Neil Ramirez For Assignment

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The Brewers announced tonight that they will activate right-hander Corey Knebel from the disabled list tomorrow and designate fellow righty reliever Neil Ramirez for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster.

Ramirez, 27, was claimed off waivers from the division-rival Cubs just nine days ago and made only two appearances with the Brewers before his somewhat surprising DFA. The former No. 44 overall pick yielded two runs in 1 2/3 innings in his short time with Milwaukee, but as recently as 2014 he looked to be an emerging setup man with the Cubs. Ramirez was originally drafted by the Rangers out of high school in 2007, and he was included in the trade that sent right-hander Matt Garza (now with Milwaukee) from Chicago to the Rangers in 2013. He posted a 1.87 ERA with 68 strikeouts against 23 walks in 57 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2014-15, though his 2015 campaign was derailed by right shoulder inflammation and an abdominal injury. Ramirez also dealt with triceps soreness back in 2014, and his fastball velocity is down more than two miles per hour since that strong 2014 debut.

While the injuries are clearly a cause for some concern, Ramirez’s former prospect pedigree and success in the 2014-15 season make him somewhat of an intriguing play for a team that can afford to take a chance on a controllable bullpen piece. It’s worth noting that the Braves, Reds, Padres and D-backs — each of whom had waiver priority over the Brewers when he was claimed on May 31 — passed on Ramirez last time he was placed on waivers, however, so it’s also certainly possible that he could slip through waivers a second time around if the Brewers elect to go that route rather than pursue a trade.

Injury Notes: Beltre, Darvish, Velasquez

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A few injury situations from around the game that warrant monitoring…

  • Adrian Beltre was pulled from the Rangers game tonight in the seventh inning after grabbing his left hamstring while attempting to run out a ground-ball. Per Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), the initial word is that he was lifted with tightness in his hamstring — the same hamstring that cost him 37 games of the 2015 campaign. Beltre will be evaluated tomorrow, and it’s unlikely there will be any definitive word on his status until then. If he’s required to miss a notable period of time, the Rangers have a third base option waiting in the wings at Triple-A in the form of Joey Gallo. Alternatively, Jurickson Profar could see some time at the hot corner as well.
  • The news for Rangers fans doesn’t necessarily improve, as Yu Darvish also departed the game prematurely due to what was termed tightness in his right shoulder. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Darvish’s removal after just 76 pitches — he’d been a pitch limit of 95 — was a precaution, and an exam from team physician Dr. Keith Meister revealed no immediately apparent issues. There’s no word that Darvish, who only just returned from 2015 Tommy John surgery, will miss a start, but I’d imagine the Rangers will be cautious when dealing with any right arm troubles for their freshly mended ace.
  • Phillies right-hander Vincent Velasquez, who left today’s game after throwing just two pitches (both clocked around 86-87 mph), could undergo an MRI tomorrow, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters, including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. Velasquez told the media that he’s “not concerned at all,” though he also conceded that he thought, “Something’s wrong,” to himself after seeing the readings from the radar gun. Velasquez’s fastball has averaged 94 mph this season, so a dip of seven to eight miles in velocity is clearly troublesome. For the time being, the Phillies are calling the injury a biceps strain, though further testing will shed light on the matter. Zolecki writes that the “smart bet” is on Velasquez missing some time, and he adds that southpaw Brett Oberholtzer and Triple-A righties Zach Eflin and David Buchanan are options to step into the rotation. Eflin would require a 40-man move, but it’s worth noting that the Phils did scratch him from his scheduled start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley tonight, as Greg Joyce of the Lehigh Valley Express-Times tweeted earlier this afternoon.

Josh Hamilton’s Knee Injury More Serious Than Initially Believed

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Earlier today, Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton underwent the season-ending knee surgery that the team had previously announced, but as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes, he required not only a repair of his left meniscus (which was previously known) but a reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee as well. Per Wilson, the surgeon who performed the surgery, Dr. Walt Lowe, had cautioned the team that an ACL repair might be necessary last month. He wasn’t certain, however, until seeing the extent of the damage to the ACL first-hand during today’s operation.

Hamilton was already known to be out for the season, but Wilson speculates that the new injury could not only end Hamilton’s time with the Rangers, but could ultimately spell the end of his career. The Rangers have a number of outfield options on the books for next season — Shin-Soo Choo, Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara and, potentially, Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson — and the team is only on the hook for $2MM of the $30MM that Hamilton will receive in the final season of his five-year, $125MM pact. (The Angels, who initially signed Hamilton to that deal, will pay the remainder.) As such, it’s possible that the Rangers could simply elect to release Hamilton and let younger alternatives receive the bulk of the time in the outfield next year, according to Wilson. Then again, GM Jon Daniels did voice back in May that the team was committed to Hamilton for the 2017 season.

There’s a chance that Hamilton could be ready for Spring Training next season, but the 35-year-old’s ability to recover from such a massive knee operation at this stage of his career remains to be seen. If he is indeed ready for the spring, however, it’s hardly inconceivable that he could latch on with a new club on a minor league pact.

Hamilton’s best years as a Major Leaguer came with the Rangers, highlighted by his 2010 AL MVP honors, and he returned to the club after a dramatic split with the Angels. Hamilton made an immediate impact with the Rangers in returning to Globe Life Park last season, doubling in a two-hit game in his first home game with Texas and then homering twice in his second game back in Arlington. However, his ultimate contributions to the 2015 Rangers were more modest, as he batted .253/.291/.441 with eight home runs in 182 trips to the plate before hamstring and knee injuries brought his season to an early end.

The Rangers have managed to thrive in spite of the loss of Hamilton, nearly a full season-to-date without Choo and significant regression from DeShields thanks largely to the emergence of Mazara (a strong Rookie of the Year candidate) and the the brilliant play of shortstop-turned-outfielder Ian Desmond. If Choo isn’t able to return to health and/or DeShields continues to struggle, the Rangers could eventually turn to Gallo and Brinson, though the latter has struggled in Double-A in 2016. Gallo isn’t a natural outfielder, but with the Rangers having extended Adrian Beltre for another two seasons, it seems all but certain that he’ll be required to move off of his natural position, third base, if he is to factor into the Rangers’ long-term plans.

Wandy Rodriguez Opts Out Of Orioles Contract

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Veteran left-hander Wandy Rodriguez has opted out of his minor league contract with the Orioles, as MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. The 37-year-old had been building up strength at the team’s Spring Training facility in Sarasota, Fla., but MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that the team simply didn’t feel it had a spot for him at the Major League level in the near future.

Rodriguez spent half the season with the Rangers in 2015, pitching quite well from April through June after winning the fifth spot in Texas’ injury-depleted rotation. The longtime Astros/Pirates hurler turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 50-to-23 K/BB ratio through his first 11 starts in the Texas rotation before melting down and surrendering 24 runs over his next 21 2/3 innings. Now that he’s built up some stamina with the Orioles in extended Spring Training, he could be ready to step directly into a minor league rotation or bullpen in the hopes of quickly working his way back to the Majors. In parts of 11 big league seasons, Rodriguez has pitched to a 4.10 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 1557 innings.

Mets Acquire Kelly Johnson

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4:38pm: The Braves sent about $450K to the Mets in the trade as well, tweets the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff. That will help offset the remaining $1.268MM on Johnson’s 2016 contract. The Braves, then, are saving about $818K in the trade.

10:56am: The Mets have officially struck a deal to acquire utilityman Kelly Johnson from the Braves, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com first reported on Twitter. Minor league righty Akeel Morris heading back in return.

New York and Atlanta are division rivals, but that didn’t stop them from linking up last summer on a deal that brought Johnson and fellow veteran Juan Uribe to the Mets. Johnson returned to Atlanta after playing a limited but important role for the eventual National League champs, only to be sent north once again.

The contending Mets have seen some holes open up this year due to injuries. In particular, first baseman Lucas Duda, third baseman David Wright, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are in various stages of lengthy absences, while outfielder Juan Lagares is limited by a thumb injury.

Johnson, 34, figures to provide a stopgap at any number of positions. Over 11 years with eight organizations, he’s lined up at second base, all four corner infield and outfield spots, and even shortstop (albeit only for one game). The left-handed-hitting Johnson looks like a particularly good fit at third base, where he could share time with Wilmer Flores, though it’s fair to note that Johnson has never carried much of a platoon split.

At his best, Johnson is a reasonably solid defender and an average or better hitter with some pop. The question is how much is left in the bat. Over 132 plate appearances this year, he’s slashed a meager .215/.273/.289 with a single home run. That’s a good ways off of his lifetime .250/.330/.420 slash and double-digit annual long ball output.

In Morris, the Braves are getting a 23-year-old reliever who has just a single MLB appearance under his belt. Heading into 2016, he had posted three straight seasons of sparkling results while steadily climbing the ladder. Over his first 25 1/3 innings this year, all coming at the Double-A level, Morris has surrendered 13 earned runs and issued 16 free passes — though he’s also allowed only 19 hits while racking up 36 strikeouts.

Jon Morosi of FOX Sports first reported that a trade between the teams was close (Twitter link). 

Dodgers Release Alex Guerrero

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The Dodgers announced that they have released infielder/outfielder Alex Guerrero, who was designated for assignment back on May 31.

The move brings to an end what will go down as a disappointing tenure for Guerrero, who signed a four-year, $28MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2013 on the heels of some impressive numbers in Cuba. Playing for los Lenadores de las Tunas, Guerrero compiled a lifetime .303/.386/.528 batting line across 2257 plate appearances in Cuba’s Serie Nacional. He’s delivered similarly impressive numbers in his brief minor league career, most notably slashing .323/.357/.598 in 266 PAs at the Triple-A level.

However, the 29-year-old Guerrero has struggled with big league pitching, hitting just .224/.251/.414 in 243 PAs, and he’s had even greater struggles on the defensive end of the game. Guerrero was primarily a shortstop while playing in Cuba, though he did see a couple hundred innings at second base as well. Even at the time of his signing, there was doubt as to whether he’d be able to handle shortstop in the Majors, and the Dodgers only gave him 47 innings at the position in the minors. He never saw action at shortstop in the Majors, spending the entirety of his time at third base and in left field while drawing mostly negative marks in the eyes of defensive metrics.

Guerrero didn’t see much in the way of regular at-bats with the Dodgers, and his time in the minors was even slowed somewhat by a bizarre incident in which teammate Miguel Olivo bit off a portion of his ear in a dugout altercation. A left knee injury prevented him from taking the field for the majority of the 2016 season, and he batted just .136/.162/.197 in 68 PAs during a recent minor league rehab assignment.

Guerrero will now be available to any club that wishes to take a chance on his production in Cuba and in Triple-A. The Dodgers are on the hook for the remainder of this season’s $5MM salary and the $5MM salary he’ll take home in 2016 as well, so he’d be available for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum.

Minor MLB Transactions: 6/8/16

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We’ll keep track of the day’s minor moves here:

  • The Indians announced that they’ve released righty Jarrett Grube. He had been pitching at Triple-A, but the team says it let him go to pursue another opportunity. (It’s unclear at present just what that might be, though it’s not uncommon for teams to allow players to leave to join ballclubs in Asia.) Grube, 34, has one MLB appearance on his ledger. He turned in a quality campaign for Cleveland’s top affiliate last year, posting a 2.69 ERA over 154 frames, but he’s fallen back in the earned run department in 2016 despite largely maintaining his strikeout-to-walk figures. Over 44 2/3 innings in seven starts and four relief appearances, Grube owns a 4.43 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

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