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Archives for June 2016
The Cases For And Against A Drew Pomeranz Trade
The Padres’ two-year push to contend in the National League West hasn’t panned out as the new ownership and front office groups had hoped, and the Friars have already begun to sell off pieces (James Shields) with plenty of rumors swirling around virtually every other player on the roster. While Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were thought to be the team’s top two trade chips in the rotation heading into the season, though, it’s been left-hander Drew Pomeranz that has had generated the most trade buzz as of late. The former No. 5 overall pick is in the midst of a breakout season, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.44 FIP and 3.64 xFIP are both within the Top 25 among all MLB starters, and SIERA rates him 31st — just ahead of Zack Greinke and just behind the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker.
Suffice it to say, Pomeranz has been one of the better starters in all of baseball this season, and as such the Padres should be able to fetch a much stronger return than the package they parted with to acquire him (Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski). Still, it’s not entirely clear that the Padres should be open to moving him at all. Let’s look at the issue from both angles.
The Case For Trading Drew Pomeranz
Simply put, the Padres aren’t a good team in 2016. Moreover, they don’t have an especially strong farm system. The Padres added some talent to their ranks with last season’s Craig Kimbrel trade, and they had one of the largest pools in this year’s amateur draft as well. Beyond that, they’re rumored to be gearing up for a hyper-aggressive run on the international prospect scene when the 2016-17 signing period kicks off on July 2. General manager A.J. Preller and his staff are in talent acquisition mode, and marketing Pomeranz — a former top draft pick and top prospect with two years of team control beyond 2016 — could further bolster their minor league system.
Pomeranz, after all, is earning just $1.35MM after his first trip through the arbitration process due to the fact that his pre-arb seasons consisted of struggles with the Rockies at Coors Field and success in a limited role in Oakland, where he served as a swingman. That price means that any team can afford to add him to its books, and it also figures to suppress his earning power for his second and third trips through the arbitration process. Pomeranz’s pedigree, low salary and remaining control should all make him appealing to clubs in search of pitching, and we’ve already seen the Orioles and Marlins linked to him this week alone.
Advocates of a Pomeranz trade for the Padres could consider this to be selling high. He’s already nearly matched his innings total from 2015, he’s spent time on the disabled list in the past with shoulder and biceps problems, and as the team has learned with Ross this season, waiting to move a pitcher with injury concerns can have a disastrous outcome. Ross has still only pitched in one game with the Padres this season. A healthy Ross would be among the most in-demand chips on the summer market, but the Padres would be selling him for pennies on the dollar right now. Cashing in while Pomeranz is healthy and performing well has its merits, to be sure.
The Case Against Trading Drew Pomeranz
Those same concerns surrounding Pomeranz’s injuries and workload could limit other teams’ willingness to part with top-tier talent to acquire him, however. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently spoke to a few scouts about Pomeranz and one NL scout suggested that the lefty would fetch a “limited return” due to skepticism surrounding his lack of a track record. While that’s just one scout’s opinion, of course, it speaks to the fact that there are those in the game that aren’t necessarily sold on Pomeranz as a concrete option to fortify the top half of a rotation.
The fact that he’s controllable through 2018, too, means that the Padres don’t need to be in a rush to trade him. Even if Pomeranz gets hurt in August, he’d have plenty of time to reestablish value in the first half of the 2017 season. And, if he’s able to remain healthy and productive, his value will only grow. There’s a complete dearth of quality arms available in free agency this winter, and it’s certainly not a stretch to say that the Padres could get a greater return if they’re marketing a full season of strong work from Pomeranz in a barren pitching market than they could by marketing half a season of strong innings. Trading him next summer could create even greater value if Pomeranz can sustain his breakout pace, as he’d still come with one and a half years of control at a reasonable salary.
Additionally, the Padres simply need quality arms for the foreseeable future in their rotation. San Diego isn’t teeming with quality rotation options. Ross is a question mark at this point, and lefty Robbie Erlin was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this year, making him an unknown in 2017 as well. Cashner is a free agent in three months’ time and may or may not return. Beyond Pomeranz and Ross, the Padres’ rotation options in 2017 include Colin Rea, Erik Johnson, Christian Friedrich, Cesar Vargas, Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo and perhaps Brandon Maurer if San Diego again wants to experiment with him as a starter. There are some additional options at Triple-A (e.g. Michael Kelly, Bryan Rodriguez), as shown on the Padres’ depth chart, but all of the starters ranked among the Padres’ Top 30 prospects at MLB.com come with an ETA of at least 2018 — and many aren’t projected to factor into the Majors until 2019.
Royals Release Omar Infante
JUNE 23: Infante has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, tweets Flanagan.
JUNE 21: The Royals have requested unconditional release waivers on Infante, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star (Twitter link). Infante, of course, figures to clear waivers with ease, as no big league club would be keen on acquiring the remainder of his salary. Once he clears (in 48 hours), he’ll be free to sign with any Major League team, at which point that team would be on the hook for only the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. (That sum would be subtracted from what the Royals owe.)
JUNE 15: The Royals have designated second baseman Omar Infante for assignment, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com tweets. His roster spot will go to lefty Brian Flynn.
Infante, 34, has been a major disappointment since signing as a free agent before the 2014 season. Kansas City still owes him the rest of a $7.75MM salary this year and another $10MM down the line, including a buyout of a 2018 option.
Technically, he could sill be claimed or traded, but both seem unlikely. Even a surprise swap would be quite unlikely to save K.C. much cash.
[RELATED: View the Royals’ new depth chart and projected lineup]
All told, Infante has provided the Royals with a .238/.269/.328 batting line with eight home runs and 11 stolen bases over 1,179 plate appearances. Though he’s been solid enough with the glove and on the bases, it hasn’t come close to making up for the offensive deficiencies. In the aggregate, he has played below replacement level.
That wasn’t the plan when the Royals added Infante, who had just wrapped up a solid 2013 campaign for the division-rival Tigers. Really, it’s a testament to how well the team has performed in the past two seasons that it was able to get by with his marginal contributions. While recent successes have moved the payroll up in the interim, Infante’s signing represented a rather significant commitment for the Royals at the time.
We’ve often discussed the possibility of the team pursuing an upgrade at second, but the final straw ultimately came from within. Surprising 27-year-old rookie Whit Merrifield supplanted Infante, with the presence of utilityman Christian Colon making him expendable.
Rockies Request Release Waivers On Jose Reyes
The Rockies announced today that they have requested release waivers on Jose Reyes, whom the team had previously designated for assignment last week. Reyes will have 48 hours to clear waivers, after which he’ll become a free agent and have the ability to sign with any club for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Technically, a team could claim Reyes off release waivers, though considering the $38.14MM remaining on his contract through the end of the 2017 season, he’s a virtual lock to clear and seek new employment on the open market.
There was some talk of the Rockies potentially trying to trade Reyes, but any efforts toward that end unsurprisingly came up empty. Colorado has had ample time to attempt to trade Reyes since he was arrested last Halloween and faced charges of domestic abuse from his wife (said charges were dropped in April), but the team has yet to find a taker. It seems likely that some team will ultimately take a shot at signing Reyes to what would be a minimal commitment, however, if only due to his track record as a well-above-average player on the field. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets are “warming up” to the idea of a reunion with Reyes, who is said to very much hope to return to Queens.
Whether Reyes proves to be any kind of on-field upgrade remains to be seen. Though he does have a long track record of production, as noted above, he was one of the game’s worst offensive players last season following his trade to Colorado. Despite the fact that Coors Field is notorious for inflating offense, Reyes posted just a .259/.291/.368 line in 208 plate appearances as a member of the Rockies. Overall, his combined .274/.310/.378 slash was considerably below average for a player that split his season between two of the game’s most favorable parks for offense.
NL Central Notes: McCutchen, Cole, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers
The Pirates have underperformed to this point in the season, but general manager Neal Huntington tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he’s not entertaining the thought of parting with center fielder Andrew McCutchen or any of his other stars. “We hear the narrative,” said Huntington in reference to recent speculation about the possibility of putting McCutchen on the trade block. “We’re aware of the narrative. But it’s not on our radar.” Similarly, FanRag’s Jon Heyman spoke to an anonymous Pirates official about the possibility of a Gerrit Cole trade and was met with a definitive reply of, “No!! Zero chance.” A recent report indicated that the Red Sox inquired on Cole and Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, but a rival GM told Heyman that such scenarios are “pipe dreams” and nothing more.
Here’s more from the NL Central…
- Heyman also spoke to execs from teams that have engaged (or attempted to engage) the Cubs in trade talks and was told that Chicago has shown “no interest” in trading Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras or Javier Baez. One opposing exec said that the Cubs are only open to moving their second-tier prospects, though a different GM opined to Heyman that the Cubs’ second tier of prospects should be rich enough to fill the bulk of their needs on the summer trade market. GMs around the league believe that Albert Almora is more or less off limits as well, Heyman writes, though the belief is that shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres isn’t in that same “untouchable” category.
- The sentencing of former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa for his crimes in the breach of the Astros’ proprietary computer network has been pushed back for a third time, reports the Houston Chronicle’s David Barron (via Twitter). The new date for Correa’s sentencing is now July 18. The sentencing had already been pushed to June 6 and then July 5 prior to today’s news. Correa plead guilty to five of the 12 charges filed against him for unauthorized access to a private computer, each of which is punishable by up to five years in a prison and a fine of $250K.
- The Brewers are moving toward an agreement with first-rounder Corey Ray, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. An agreement isn’t yet in place, though one could be as soon as Friday afternoon. Ray’s bonus is expected to land between $4MM and his slot value of $4.382MM, according to McCalvy’s source. Ray, selected fifth overall by the Brewers in the draft, chatted with MLBTR’s Chuck Wasserstrom in a Q&A prior to the draft.
Follow MLBTR On Instagram
Last summer, MLBTR launched its Instagram account (@TradeRumorsMLB). Over the past year we’ve provided sneak peeks at what traded players and free agents would look like in their new gear, provided live video and photos from the Winter Meetings and Spring Training, and found creative ways to ask pertinent hot stove questions.
This summer, we’re also running contests for autographed cards of trade candidates. We’ve already sent out cards to winners of our contests for Jonathan Lucroy and Julio Teheran autographs, and the current Jay Bruce giveaway (which runs through Friday afternoon) will award the winner with a signed 2014 Topps Five Star series card. We’ll be offering up more autographs and memorabilia over the course of the summer, in addition to jersey swaps, polls and discussion images and perhaps further updates on the Super Gurriel Bros.
If you have an IG account and haven’t checked out MLB Trade Rumors, follow us on Instagram today to participate in some more summer giveaways and keep track of all the activity on the trade market!
Tigers Agree To Terms With Matt Manning
The Tigers and No. 9 overall draft pick Matt Manning have agreed to terms, reports MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter). The high school right-hander out of California will receive the full slot value of $3,505,800, according to Mayo.
Entering the draft, Manning was a consensus Top 15 prospect, with ESPN’s Keith Law rating him ninth on his final Top 100 ranking. Mayo and colleague Jim Callis rated Manning 11th in the draft, as did Baseball America on their Top 500 ranking. Athleticism runs in Manning’s bloodline, as his father, Rich, had a brief NBA career from 1995-97. Law notes that Manning needs a good bit of development but is “so athletic” that he’s well worth the associated risk. Manning himself was set to play both basketball and baseball at Loyala Marymount but will forego that commitment to begin his pro career with the Tigers. BA praises his 6’5″, 195-pound projectable frame and a fastball that sits 96-97 mph and is said to have reached 99 mph. Like BA and Law, Callis and Mayo feel that his secondary pitches — a curveball and changeup — need some work but have the potential to be above-average offerings.
The Tigers haven’t had a selection as high as ninth overall since 2009, when they also took a high school right-hander (Jacob Turner). Despite their No. 9 overall selection, the Tigers have a small draft pool this season thanks to the fact that they parted with their second pick in order to sign right-hander Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year deal and their third pick to sign Justin Upton to a six-year deal. (The top 10 selections in the draft are protected, so the Tigers retained the No. 9 pick despite signing a pair of qualifying offer free agents.) Those losses left the Tigers with a pool of $5,424,300, and they’ll have $1,918,500 to allocate to the remainder of their picks in rounds four through 10 (plus any over-slot deals for players selected beyond the 10th round).
Marlins Among Teams With Interest In Bud Norris
Braves righty Bud Norris had a dismal start to the season, but he’s righted the ship over the past seven weeks or so and is drawing trade interest from multiple clubs, including the Marlins, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter).
Norris, 31, isn’t exactly a marquee trade chip but would be an affordable arm for contenders that could pitch either out of the rotation or bullpen if teams are convinced that his recent turnaround has some sustainability. Norris was rocked for an 8.74 ERA through five starts in April, but since that time he’s pitched quite well, recording a 2.43 ERA (2.80 FIP, 3.74 xFIP) with 7.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 52.4 percent ground-ball rate across 40 2/3 innings between the Atlanta ’pen and rotation. (Norris has recovered his starting job after briefly losing it due to the aforementioned struggles.) He’s earning a modest $2.5MM this season after inking a one-year deal in the winter, and he’s owed about $1.38MM of that sum through the end of the season. As such, he’s affordable to virtually any team in the Majors from a financial standpoint.
It’s unrealistic to expect a significant return for Norris, his recent success and low financial commitment notwithstanding. He did, after all, struggle tremendously in 2015 when he posted a combined 6.72 ERA in 83 innings between the Orioles (who designated Norris for assignment and subsequently released him last summer) and the Padres. His track record prior to the ’15 campaign was that of a mid-rotation starter but not necessarily an innings eater; he logged a respectable 4.06 ERA from 2011-14 with the Astros and O’s but averaged just 174 innings per season in that time. The Braves may be able to leverage his recent success and improved ground-ball tendencies into a fringe prospect, and that was probably Atlanta’s ideal scenario when signing him to that one-year deal in the offseason in the first place.
Heyman also lists the White Sox, Mariners and Tigers as possible teams that Norris could assist, though he does so in a speculative fashion as opposed to listing those clubs as teams to have inquired with the Braves. The Marlins, though, appear to be casting a fairly wide net in their search for rotation help. Norris is the third starting pitcher this week that’s been directly connected to the Fish, who reportedly have interest in Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi and Padres lefty Drew Pomeranz as well. Norris is a much more plausible target for Miami, as the team has one of the weakest farm systems in the game, and the asking price on Norris will be considerably lower than the price on a controllable, prime-aged arm like Odorizzi or Pomeranz.
Orioles Interested In Pomeranz, Liriano
The Orioles have deployed an all-right-handed rotation this season — a top-heavy one, at that — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that they’re interested in acquiring a left-handed arm to help balance it out. Among the names in which Baltimore has shown interest are San Diego’s Drew Pomeranz and Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, according to Morosi.
Baltimore’s need for rotation help is clear. The O’s have a narrow lead in the American League East (one game ahead of Boston, two ahead of Toronto), but Chris Tillman is their lone starter with an ERA south of 4.00. In fact, Kevin Gausman (4.37) and Tyler Wilson (4.57 as a starter) are the only other two pitchers that have started a game for Baltimore this season and presently own an ERA under 5.00. Non-Tillman starters for the Orioles have posted a collective 5.53 ERA. The Orioles have an excellent bullpen, but their relievers’ 237 1/3 innings are currently the 10th-most in all of Major League Baseball, and eight of the nine teams whose bullpens have posted higher innings totals have sub-.500 records. Rarely can contending teams rely this heavily on their relief corps.
Pomeranz has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate over the past few weeks as it’s become more and more clear that the Padres will be sellers on the summer trade market, but Liriano’s name hasn’t been mentioned much to date. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Firstly, while the Bucs have underwhelmed this season, they’re still just three games under .500 and 4.5 games back from a Wild Card spot in the National League. It is in no way clear that they’ll entertain selling off pieces of their big league roster this summer, and Morosi adds that GM Neal Huntington recently told MLB.com that his focus remains on winning in 2016.
Secondly, Liriano simply isn’t performing well in 2016 and is owed another $20.25MM through the end of the 2017 season as of this writing ($7.25MM for the duration of ’16 and $13MM in ’17). Liriano was terrific for the Bucs from 2013-15, posting a 3.26 ERA with 543 strikeouts against 214 walks in 518 innings out of the rotation. However, his old control problems have resurfaced in 2016, as he’s averaged 5.6 walks per nine innings (including tonight’s start) en route to a 5.17 ERA. Liriano is still averaging better than a strikeout per inning, and his velocity is holding steady (92.3 mph average fastball), but in addition to his glut of free passes he’s been exceptionally homer-prone.
Pomeranz, meanwhile, is a more plausible trade candidate, but the Padres needn’t feel motivated to deal him. Unlike many summer trade candidates, Pomeranz is controlled for multiple years beyond the 2016 season; San Diego can keep him through at least 2018 by way of arbitration, and the fact that he’s only now in the midst of a breakout season at age 27 has suppressed his arbitration earnings to date. Pomeranz is earning $1.35MM as a first-time arbitration-eligible player, but he’s pitched like a top-tier starter for an otherwise dismal Padres staff. In a team-leading 81 innings this season, the former No. 5 overall draft pick has posted a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate.
Certainly, there’s reason to approach Pomeranz’s success with some degree of caution. The former top pick, like many before him, posted dreadful numbers at Coors Field for the first three seasons of his career before being flipped to the A’s. Pomeranz posted solid numbers in Oakland, but he did so as more of a swingman than a regular member of the Athletics’ rotation. He’s never topped 147 innings in a single season (combined between the Majors and minors), and he hasn’t even climbed that high since 2012. He also battled a shoulder injury last season and dealt with a biceps injury back in 2013. Pomeranz figures to surpass his 2015 innings total the next time he starts for San Diego, and how well his arm can hold up over the life of a full season’s worth of innings remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, he’s an intriguing asset whose stock is on the rise while playing for a last-place club with an aggressive general manager and front office in place, so the debate of whether he should be traded or retained figures to be one of the more interesting topics as the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer. Pomeranz has already been connected to the O’s and Marlins this week alone, and other suitors figure to line up in the weeks to come.
The other piece of the equation in this scenario is whether the O’s have the necessary talent to acquire either of these arms (or another rotation upgrade). Entering the season, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law pegged the Orioles as having the game’s fourth-worst farm system. That’s not to say that the O’s don’t have appealing players, but the lack of depth in their system will allow other teams ample opportunity to offer superior packages in trade talks.
NL Notes: Syndergaard, Cespedes, Dodgers, Myers, Gray, Cards
The Mets and their fans had a scare earlier today when both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes departed from a game early, but the team gave fairly positive updates on that pair and on Zack Wheeler tonight (links to Twitter via David Lennon of Newsday). There’s no structural damage in Syndergaard’s elbow. He’s free to resume his normal routine and will begin taking some anti-inflammatory medication to help with the discomfort he’s experienced twice this season. Cespedes received a cortisone shot for a sprained left wrist but is day to day and isn’t headed to the disabled list at this time. Wheeler, too, received a cortisone shot for a nerve issue in his elbow but has no structural damage.
As Mets fans breathe a sigh of relief, here are a few other notes from around the Senior Circuit…
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out that the Dodgers spent more on international amateurs (players that fall within international signing guidelines) than six organizations spent on their Major League payroll to open the season. Los Angeles spent about $96MM this period ($48MM on players plus about $48MM in luxury taxes), and that figure doesn’t even factor in the six-year, $30MM deal signed by right-hander Yaisel Sierra. Rosenthal spoke to commissioner Rob Manfred about the Dodgers’ spending, and Manfred said that there will be a strong focus on changes to the international system in the upcoming wave of CBA negotiations. “…when you see that kind of disparity in any part of the system, it generally suggests to us that the system is not functioning in a way that promotes competitive balance,” said the commissioner. “Rest assured, we’re going to be making proposals to address that.”
- The Padres remain “active” in trade talks, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter), but one name that hasn’t seen much chatter is Wil Myers. It seems that San Diego is not terribly interested in discussing the outfielder/first baseman. The 25-year-old will hit arbitration eligibility after the season, and will be in line for a nice payday if he can keep hitting at anything like his current .290/.336/.529 pace. Myers has already knocked a career-high 16 long balls in 301 plate appearances, and finally seems to be coming into his own after inconsistency and injury issues in recent years. San Diego paid a high price to get Myers before the 2015 season, with talented young players Joe Ross and Trea Turner moving to D.C. in a notable three-team swap, and it appears for now as if the club would like to see its investment pay off on the field rather than cashing him in for prospects.
- The Rockies pulled Jon Gray from today’s start with what the team is terming “arm fatigue,” and he’ll be reevaluated tomorrow, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. Gray threw just 40 of his 80 pitches for strikes and admitted that he’s felt some fatigue in his arm for his past couple of outings, but “it’s just now getting to a serious point.” Manager Walt Weiss said that Gray’s arm felt “heavy” today, and the right-hander himself said he had more trouble with his control than he ever has. “I’ve never had great control, but this, I didn’t know where this was going,” he said. “I wanted to leave it all out there and grind through it, but it wasn’t working.”
- Brayan Pena is nearing the end of his 20-day rehab window with the Cardinals, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which could mean that the team will part ways with veteran backup Eric Fryer. The 30-year-old Fryer has been great in a very limited role with St. Louis, hitting .406/.457/.469 in just 35 plate appearances (despite appearing in 22 games). However, Pena is on a two-year contract signed with the Cardinals last offseason, so even though he’s struggled through 11 rehab games as he recovers from knee surgery, he figures to be in the team’s plans.
