TODAY:Â Shields trade talks are “heating up,” FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links). The White Sox appear to still be involved, as the Padres have been scouting their prospects. One team (perhaps the White Sox, although that isn’t certain) has made a “compelling offer,” and two other teams are contenders to land Shields as well.
MAY 29: The Padres are fielding calls from plenty of teams for Shields and other players, tweets Heyman. Given the many moving parts, it is perhaps unsurprising to learn that a Shields trade doesn’t appear imminent.
As between the White Sox and Padres, discussions are “fluid,” reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Whether a deal happens will come down to how much of Shields’ remaining $58MM each team is willing to absorb, per Levine, who adds that Anderson will not be part of this trade (Twitter link).
MAY 28: The White Sox and Padres are discussing a trade involving righty starter James Shields, and those negotiations have “significant momentum,” Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. It’s unclear whether a deal is likely to be completed soon, however. Jon Heyman of MLB Network corroborates Lin’s report that the White Sox and Padres have discussed Shields, but he notes that other teams are also in the mix (Twitter link).
The Padres initially signed Shields prior to the 2015 season as part of their ill-fated bid to build a competitive team. He posted a modestly disappointing 3.91 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 that year. He’s gotten somewhat better results this season, with a 3.06 ERA, although his peripherals (7.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9) don’t suggest huge improvement.
The broader issue with Shields, perhaps, is his backloaded contract. He’s making $21MM this year and will make $21MM in each of the next two seasons, plus a $2MM buyout or a $16MM option for 2019. (He also can opt out after this season, but it seems unlikely right now that he’ll do so.) Those numbers could make trading for Shields tricky, especially given that he’s already 34, although Lin notes that the Padres would be willing to eat salary. It’s also unclear how Shields’ home-run tendencies might play in U.S. Cellular Field, a relatively homer-happy ballpark.
Nonetheless, Shields has an extremely durable arm and produces relatively consistent results, and he could help most teams, the White Sox included. The Sox have gotten brilliant performances from Chris Sale and Jose Quintana this season, and they’re likely also happy with Carlos Rodon and Mat Latos (although Latos has been shaky recently). Shields could, however, conceivably upgrade the other spot in the White Sox’ rotation, which currently belongs to Miguel Gonzalez.
As for the Padres’ potential return, ESPN’s Keith Law tweets that he recently heard the White Sox would be willing to part with shortstop prospect Tim Anderson in exchange for a mid-rotation starter. (There is, however, no specific indication that Anderson is involved in the Shields talks.) Anderson, the 17th overall pick in the 2013 draft, is batting a solid .314/.342/.408 for Triple-A Charlotte (although with 44 strikeouts against just eight walks) and is generally regarded as one of the White Sox’ best few prospects. He would appear to be a strong return for Shields, although it’s difficult to speculate on how the trade might work without knowing how much of Shields’ contract the Padres end up paying.
Interesting
You kindred insights represent an interesting turnabout
lol
REINSDORF BLOWS, VENTURA BLOWS, WILLIAMS BLOWS, HAHN BLOWS, BOYER BLOWS. The entire front office and entire coaching staff should be gone.
Strauss is pretty accurate, but we can’t trade those guys.
LOL
You forgot to include my ex-wife.
LOL x 2
Renisdorf*
I really don’t see why we’d be pursuing Shields other than he’s (hopefully very) cheap.
First off, he’s got a HR problem, second of all he’s a fly-ball pitcher. Seems like this is gonna be a Samardzija all over again. I hope I’m wrong.
Personally, I think we should go after Matt Moore or Erasmo Ramirez. Those two would make a ton of sense.
I doubt he would be cheap. He’s thrown 200+ innings since 2007 with a career ERA of 3.72. He hasn’t had an ERA north of 4 since 2010 (although he had a 3.91 last year). I can’t think of why he would be cheap, although I also do not see the validity of the criticism surrounding Shields. This guy pitches well and has a great clubhouse presence. The only thing is that he is due around 21 million for the next two years and an option in 2019.
He is an average pitcher at best and likely would be a horrible fit in Comiskey Park. Though I could see the Sox Management inept enough to send Anderson for a middling starter. Besides this is all a moot point if Robin Ventura is left to mismanage this club.
JS has a 4-1 record with a 3.00 ERA in 11 games at Comiskey. Over the last ten years, there are only a handful of pitchers who have won more games or pitched more innings than James. He’s a solid pitcher who will keep you in games and eat innings. He has a large contract but I’d rather have Shields and his contract than Verlander and his contract. He’s not exciting…he’s not going to win the cy young or make it into the HOF. But he’s a quality starter and that’s worth a lot for a contending team.
Those games were all AGAINST the White Sox offense though. Unfortunately, if the White Sox were to acquire him, he’d have to pitch against other teams at US Cellular. He’d surely shut them down in practice though.
scoff all you want…but shields is having another good season.. forget the won loss-record because in JS’s 10 starts, the Padres have scored 18 runs. shields ERA is nearly 3. and he’s pitched six innings or more in each start. it’s a typical JS year and the closer to the trade deadline with more injuries, the higher his value will be. what the padres get in return depends on how much salary san diego is willing to eat. the fact is, the idea that shields can’t pitch well in the south side of chicago was proven false. he HAS pitched well vs cominsky vs major league hitters. 🙂
Shields is not worth one of the Sox top prospects though, Especially with an opt out clause in his contract.. Even if he did not opt out it is a horrible idea to move the guy that could be your starting SS for the next 6-10 years for a guy who has 2 years left on a contract and is pushing 35. If the Sox have to give up very little (ie 1 or 2 A ball prospects) and SD eats most of his salary is the only time I would make this deal and I doubt SD will do that as some team will be desperate enough to move some of their guys for him. That is fine, but the Sox have very little and lets face faces they need those guys they do have.
What you describe is league average. He’s owed nearly $60 million, and is aging. He doesn’t have a lot of trade value….at least he shouldn’t.
Agree with Overbrook. Shields overrated. Only the tool AJ Preller was stupid enough to give Shields that contract now he needs to find an organization dummer them him! Not easy to do …. So his first call is to the White Sox who may trade Anderson for this bum?! Wow.
Not that I want to defend preller but I’m pretty sure shields was offered more than what the Padres offered..
Nope. No other team was willing to give Shields a guaranteed 4th year on his contract. The Cubs offered him a deal for a slightly higher AAV but they only offered him a club option for the 2018 season.
there are only a handful of pitchers who can match what JS has accomplished over the last decade. is he going to make the hall of fame? no. but he’s a valuable pitcher because of his consistency. making 33 starts….200+ innings and winning 13-16 games a year. i think every team in baseball would love that. as for what he’s paid……that’s just the market at work.
Teams acquiring him from 2016 on don’t care that he has pitched well for the last decade. They don’t get that production. You don’t pay for past performance. And that is NOT the market at work. NO ONE else would give him that contract. Which is why the padres are going to have to throw in money to get any kind of return for him.
you’re not paying for past performance. JS is having a good year in 2016. forget the record, the pads are averaging less than 2 runs a game in in his starts. but his era is good and he’s pitched at least six innings in every start. if you think a prospect is that good, fine, don’t trade for JS. But if you need a guy in your rotation who might get you into the playoffs, JS is a proven asset and he’s proving it again.
Hey obviously he sucks at motivating his offense to score runs if they are averaging less than 2 runs per game in his starts XD
I wouldn’t say Shields is overrated. I don’t think anyone has touted him as an Ace-like pitcher. He’s a solid #3 and after Sale and Quintana the Sox NEED a solid #3. With Rondon being average at best and Latos slowly returning to his 2015 form they need help. Shields is paid like a #1 or 2 though. THAT is why he shouldn’t be too expensive.
That said I think if they were to get him it is all for nought. The White Sox as they are currently built and ran will never be all that great IMO. Somewhat competitive…… maybe a year or two when they make the playoffs but quickly rolled over once in said playoffs if they get there. I also think it is time to lay off Ventura and promote Renteria. He was solid in his 1 year with the Cubs….. he should be pretty solid for you guys…… especially if Reinsdorf ever came to his senses and did a full on rebuild. Since 2005 they have had one 90 win season…… and that was a 90 win season in 2006. They’ve made the playoffs once since that WS team as well. That WS season 1 was 11 years ago Sox fans…… time to move on. Since they won that WS I went from having 0 nieces and nephews to having 5 nieces and nephews. 11 years is a long time. The Reinsdorf/Williams model worked once. That’s it. Since 2005 the Sox winning percentage the last 10 seasons is .490. The Cubs in that same stretch….. and mind you in that time they tore their team down and built it back up already…… they have a .478 winning percentage. White Sox record from 2006-2015: 794-827……. Cubs: 774-844……. again, in that same stretch there were 4 or so years when the Cubs were actively trying and knowingly be bad. They’ve also made the postseason 3 times in the last 10 years to the Sox 1. Blow it up Sox.
The White Sox did undergo a mini-rebuild/retool that began at the 2013 summer trade deadline and continued into the following off-season. It was in that time frame they acquired some high level prospects (at the time, mind you) like Avisail Garcia, Frankie Montas and Matt Davidson, traded for Adam Eaton and also signed Jose Abreu.
In addition, they already had ace in Chris Sale under cheap, long term team control and also extended a similar type deal to Jose Quintana. It may not have worked out as planned, but the White Sox did, and still do, have some significant core pieces in place that would have made a full rebuild less likely.
The comparison to the Cubs model isn’t entirely appropriate, especially since the Cubs needed to do a full rebuild at some point with their new ownership highly leveraged, while the White Sox have an owner in Jerry Reinsdorf who is likely to sell the club sooner rather than later at 80-years old, with a son who only appears interested in operating the Bulls NBA franchise.
When you say Samardzija all over again do you mean a pitcher that suddenly gets great when he leaves the south side?
No Pads fan he meant a pitcher who is overrated and then exposed when he comes pitch in a homer friendly park. The opposite of Petco. Shileds blows and you know it which is why your sad team is trying to dump him since almost the moment you signed and over paid for the Bum when your clueless GM was trying to put together a fantasy baseball stat team while gutting your farm system.
A Sox fan ridiculing another team’s GM/operations when the White Sox are probably one of the worst operated teams in baseball. A front office that openly admits to just trying to be decent and respectable….. not great and be in contention every year. A front office who refuses to commit to an actual rebuild. Reinsdorf, Williams, and whatever other clowns they have in suits are a joke. While I think the Shields signing was a little pricey, I don’t think Shields is as big of a bum as you think he is. The Dude has a respectable career 3.72 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Over the last 5+ seasons Shields has a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while averaging 227 IP per season……. if you think that is a bum you are an idiot. You are a Sox fan though, so…….
Add him with Sale , Quintana , Rodon , Latos. Thats a solid rotation.
Would be a great move to stabilize the starting rotation.
1)Sale
2)Quintana
3)Shields
4)Rodon
5)Latos
Fulmer can then help in the bullpen later in the year. Use Gonzalez as long relief when Latos self implodes. Now just need a guy who can hit for avg and obp in the two hole behind eaton. Anderson should eventually take Rollins spot, we need someone to eliminate avi’s spot with the team.
they need bruce or Cargo
I’d love to see ’em get Braun…am I nuts
Yes
No.
Ryan Braun is a professional hitter and probably the best who could be had right now, not just as the trade deadline approaches. Carlos Gonzalez may be the ideal fit for the White Sox being a left-handed hitter, but Braun doesn’t come with the same concerns regarding home/away and left-handed hitting splits that “Cargo” possesses.
The Brewers ought to be willing to deal significant veteran assets such as Braun and Jonathan Lucroy as soon as now while the Rockies are more likely to wait until closer to the trade deadline in a weaker than expected N.L. West. Imo, Gonzalez will also likely cost more in terms of return assets than Braun might, mainly due to the amount of money and years left on their respective contracts. As with James Shields, the more money the White Sox, or any other team, are willing to take on, less talent goes back in a trade. The years and dollars remaining on the Gonzalez contract are significantly less than that of Braun’s deal, making “Cargo” more desirable and affordable to a greater number of teams this summer.
Yes to Carlos Gonzalez, no to Jay Bruce.
I think the Sox need a powerhitting RF more than anything else.
CarGo would be perfect there though, Add his bat to the line up with frazier and abreu.
No, they don’t. Moving Eaton out of RF would be a gigantic mistake. Ideally, they’d find a CF or SS that can both hit and play really good defense. Either that or find someone to spend time at LF/DH with Melky.
That someone could be Ryan Braun, a player who has spent more time in LF than in RF during his career, including this season. He and Melky Cabrera would both be regulars in the batting order, splitting time between the LF and DH spots. Adam Eaton could then remain as the regular in RF and occasionally play CF to spell Austin Jackson against tough right-handed pitching. Braun could start in RF on those days.
In all likelihood, Avisail Garcia would be part of any return package involving a trade for either Carlos Gonzalez or Braun, along with some much needed young pitching heading back to Colorado or Milwaukee. I wouldn’t mind an expanded trade with the Brewers that might include catcher Jonathan Lucroy. A package of both Braun and Lucroy might be worth the cost of top prospects such as Carson Fulmer and/or Tim Anderson, along with Garcia.
The Brewers would never do that. They would acquire a lot more than Fulmer and Anderson by splitting up Braun and Lucroy. The Sox would have to add a lot more in prospect value, that they don’t have, to get both.
Well, we’ll likely found out sooner rather than later. I fully expect both Braun and Lucroy to be dealt before the August 1st trade deadline.
The White Sox might have to ante up a little more to acquire Lucroy in a package, perhaps another of their top pitching prospects, something they do have some depth with in an otherwise weak minor league system. Much could depend on just how much money owner Jerry Reinsdorf would be willing to take on from Braun’s contract.
Being a Tigers fan, I hope they are able to acquire him, and I hope they pay fair value or more. I think his best days are past him, and other than Denver or Toronto, I can’t think of a ballpark less suited to his style of pitching. White Sox fans will get whiplash from watching the flyballs turn into homeruns.
Seriously, this is an awful move. This guy is owed some loot as well.
Meh. His career HR/FB rate is 11.8 %. He had an odd spike in 2015 but it’s back to normal now. He’s an innings-eater and a league average or slightly better pitcher, which means he’s pretty useful to a team with a short bullpen like the White Sox.
it would be a solid move. he will tweak some stuff with coop. the rotation has sale as a 1 and per fangraphs Quintana is a 1A than you add a 3 pushing latos to the 5 is pretty strong. need a LHd bat though
Yeah, because we all saw what coop did with the shark, and look how he’s dominating in SF now!
Um you do realize that it’s been established that Shark wouldn’t listen to Coop at all right?? The stretch where he said he would listen to Coop was late June through July where Shark was dominant. So your argument isn’t valid.
this
Lol!!! Right! Coop is so overrated my white sox fans is laughable!
James Shields had spent his entire career pitching successfully in the American League prior to signing with the Padres. In addition to his two years in Kansas City, Shields spent 7 seasons in Tampa. The Rays park is not a hitter friendly one like the Cell in Chicago but Shields pitched a lot of baseball in tough A.L. East stadiums in Boston, Baltimore and New York.
On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija had only a 3 month stint in the A.L. prior to pitching for the White Sox in 2015, that in an extreme pitcher-friendly park in Oakland to finish the 2014 season. He now benefits from another good pitching stadium across the bay in San Francisco.
Shark also spent his whole career before going to Oakland with the Cubs. Wrigley is by far the best hitters park when the wind is blowing out, which is a solid 75% of the time. And shark didn’t listen to coop? Pretty sure coop has lost his touch. I suppose Latos and Danks “stopped listening to coop” too?
What are you talking about? First of all, the wind doesn’t blow out of Wrigley 75% of the time. Don’t make stuff up. I think I’ve seen every Cubs game and at one point remember Len Kasper saying “this has been one of the rare days the wind is blowing out this year”.
Second of all Coop has been just fine. Danks never made it back from his shoulder injury. They tried and tried because of the money he was owed. Latos has struggled lately but was good to start the season. Just look no further than Hose Quintana, the guy has been a top 5 lefty in the entire league for the last couple of years.
Again you just sound like a Cub fan who hates the Sox.
Agreed, Coop is fine. Guys like Danks make the overall pitching stats look skewed in the wrong direction, but there are some guys that the front office throws at Coop that he cannot ‘fix’ or help (see Edwin Jackson, Samardzija-who refused to listen to Coop-, and Danks just to name a few). Jose Quintana has been a tough luck loser with about 53 NDs since 2012. As for Latos, well the knock on him before coming to the Sox was his injuries and that he has no been the same pitcher. Sure lately he has not been great but Latos is not the guy he was 3 years ago either.
Why is Tim Anderson being mentioned here? No chance the Sox give him up for Shields. If it was a healthy Tyson Ross that’d be a different story
There is a chance, depending on how much money the Padres pay.
No, theres really not. Shields is an average pitcher at best. Even if the Pads paid his entire salary he’s still not worth Anderson
Totally agree
Trades that don’t seem to match up in value happen regularly. See the Josh Donaldson trade for one.
Anderson is just slightly above average for a prospect. He rates a 50-55 on the 20-80 scouting scale depending on which service you look at (Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus/MLB) with 50 being average. Shields is above average for a pitcher. 3.06 ERA is well above average this season and 200 IP every season is very HARD to come by.
50-55 would be an above average major league player. With 6 years of control at cheap rates, that’s very valuable.
What has Tim Anderson proven at the Major League level? NOTHING! Shields is way more valuable than him.
Agreed. I see Anderson as a bust
How the hell is Anderson a bust? Hitting .320 at AAA as a 22 year old. More dumb comments from a Cubs fan obviously trying to troll Sox fans, but really doesn’t know shit about the White Sox.
Goes to show you that in fact some Cubs fans just like some Sox fans hate the other side of town.
I for one love watching the Cubs and actually root for them to win when they aren’t playing the Sox.
Anderson is a nice prospect but has major red flags – the K/BB ratio especially. He’d be a nice return for Shields, but he also may just be a speedy guy who can’t get on base.
how so? if he was a cubs prospect you would be casing his hr balls in RF already.
Huh? That makes no sense. I’m not even sure what the Cubs have to do with anything. I was pointing out that Anderson’s profile – speedy guy with serious deficiency in on-base skills – is a profile that often leads to poor major-league results. Billy Hamilton is a perfect example of this,
Some players can learn a modicum of plate discipline, but most don’t. It’s one of the hardest things to teach, and I think it’s reasonable to point out that Anderson, this season, has struck out 22% of the time in AAA. Anderson is still young enough to make some progress. But his plate discipline has dropped him precipitously in prospect rankings; I believe he dropped out of BAs top 100 list this season, in fact.
Let me clarify. I’m not trolling. From what I’ve read and heard from certain writers, he just might not be able to handle the pressure of a big market team. That’s all I was saying. I’m sure he’ll be a good player, just not a star player. I’d trade him in a minute. If SD were asking for Fulmer on the other hand, not a chance in hell. The Sox need a solid right handed for their rotation, because Latos won’t be back next year. If they trade Anderson for Shields, you have a solid 1-5. Sale Quintana Shields Rodon Fulmer. That’s easily be a top 5 rotation.
Don’t say things unless you can back it up. Tim Anderson is #45 on BAs top 100.
Who has said that Tim Anderson can’t handle a big market?? Please show me where this has been said. I want a link. Because this is the dumbest made up comment on this thread. And there’s some dumb ones.
Again send me the link where you’ve read this idiotic take. And if you do find a link, I’m going to show you a bad writer.
And Corey Patterson was high on the ranks too and look what happened to him. Listen to any of the beat writers on 670 the score talk about him. He gets down on himself extremely hard when he doesn’t succeed right away. Confidence issues. The kid is young. All I’m saying is id trade him if I were the Sox. I don’t “hate” the sox. I’m just stating that I personally would trade him. What position players have the sox drafted and developed? Their thing is drafting pitchers. Until they get rid of Kenny Williams as the head honcho, expect more of the same. Also, Ventura is easily one of, if not the worst manager in baseball. Make Renteria the manager and can Robin. Then I can see the Sox turning their season around instead of continuing the slide they’ve been on. How bad of a sign is it when you have Sale scheduled for Monday, and because of last nights debacle, along with Friday’s, he’s now pitching today? Horribly ran team the past few years. And it all starts with Kenny.
The key word there is AAA. While I agree you can’t argue that he’s a bust when he’s never stepped on the big league field, I do think there is some potential there for a bust.
In addition, it’s unlikely that Shields opts out of his contract as he will not earn as much money as he did a couple winters ago. So the Sox likely have him for 2 years following this one.
Paul Konerko was also extremely hard on himself. So is Bryce Harper. So are 95% of ball players when they struggle. If you’re competitive then you are hard on yourself when you’re struggling.
Also you are wrong with the Sale thing, it was announced before Friday’s game that Sale would pitch Sunday. But hey keep changing things to try and make yourself sound smart. What you need to do is fact check things before typing them.
And 670 The Score has 1 beat writer and it’s Bruce Levine, I know Bruce, he’s never seen Anderson play in person. So again, do you want to just spew more dumb stuff that has no backing or what?
I interned at 670 the Score and know a lot of guys there still. I just talked to Bruce a few weeks ago.
The only smart thing you said was making Renteria manager.
Oh you interned? Cool story bro. He may be the Scores beat writer, I said listen to ANY of the best writers they talk to about him. Yeah MLB players are hard on themselves, but there is something scouts and others have seen about him. That’s all I was saying. Tell Bruce I said hey, oh wait I can do that myself because I know him too!
Listen to any of the beat writers on 670 the score talk about him.
That is your exact sentence. You didn’t say best. I said he is the only beat writer for baseball at the Score.
Let’s pay attention to what was said. This shit isn’t hard. Again, check with everything your type on your computer before you say it. Because you are wrong almost every time.
Oops, sorry; he was 92 on the list I was looking at but that was 2015
Play nice now boys!
Most White Sox fans wouldn’t be opposed to trading Tim Anderson, just not for James Shields. If Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez were to be made available later this summer, few would complain if he were mentioned as part of any trade package.
Sox don’t have the farm to pull off a trade for either of those guys hahaha.
Does any team have the farm to pry Fernandez away lol. At least the asking price right now.
Getting a top prospect and dumping that back loaded contact would be a coup for the Padres.
3.06 ERA and 200 IP every year. Shields is the middle of the rotation workhorse the White Sox need. It will be more than just Anderson too. SD radio is saying it’s a 4 for 1 deal that includes Anderson and 3 pitching prospects.
Where did u find this?
1090 and 1360 talking about it today. Also heard something similar on 670 chicago
I agree. Tim Anderson should not be part of any package for James Shields regardless of the money exchanged in the trade. Carson Fulmer should also be left out of any conversations involving Shields alone.
That being said, if a pitcher such as Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez where to be made available later this summer, both Anderson and Fulmer could be attractive assets to land either. I could also envision the White Sox using either or both to help acquire a premium position player such as Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez or Yasiel Puig.
Gray or Fernandez would cost way more than just Fulmer and Anderson hahaha
I know, that’s hilarious. Just imagine Billy Beane and the Miami GM laughing hysterically before hanging up.
And James Shields will cost way less hahaha
Where did I ever write that Anderson and Fulmer alone would be enough to acquire either pitcher? I simply stated that, “both Anderson and Fulmer could be attractive assets to land either.”
The White Sox farm system is hardly the among the best in MLB but they do have other pieces that could be added to any potential trade, including from their active roster. The White Sox also have some pitching depth in their organization from top to bottom that could serve to close a deal with the A’s or Marlins.
As recently as this past off-season, the White Sox acquired All-Star 3B Todd Frazier by parting with two top 5 prospects in pitcher Frankie Montas and 2B Micah Johnson, along with 4th OF Trayce Thompson from their active roster. A similarly constructed deal might be possible to land either Gray or Fernandez. Both Fulmer and Anderson are considered to be more premium prospects than either Montas or Johnson were. A player like Avisail Garcia arguably holds more value than Thompson with his tools and MLB experience, especially since he is still just 24-years old. An additional top prospect or two might be enough to secure either pitcher in a trade.
Thompson has more tools than Garcia. Montas is probably fulmers equal. 100 mph fastball and had success in the upper minors.
Thompson best tool is his overall athleticism and family genetics. His performance was always underwhelming as a minor league player. It’s always possible he could blossom as a MLB player but Garicia has had better numbers professionally, including those as an actual MLB player while Thompson labored in the White Sox farm system.
Garcia was considered a 4-5 tool player in the Tigers farm system and he has showed flashes of that ability at different times in his MLB career. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if “Little Miggy” eventually realizes much of his potential, especially offensively with his power and hitting ability.
Frankie Montas is not the equal of Carson Fulmer based on potential or performance. Fulmer was a closer and then an ace pitcher for a prestigious college program at Vanderbilt that won a college World Series and nearly a second with him at the top of their rotation. Fulmer has a chance to be the next stud from a program that has already produced David Price and Sonny Gray, with the ability to become either a top of the rotation starter or a premium closer in the not too distant future. Both pitchers have struggled with their command as professionals but I’ll take Fulmer’s pedigree and ability over that of Montas.
Lol what? Thompson has a 140wRC+ in mlb, is a better defender and better baserunner so he has been better in every facet. Despite what you think he was always above average in the minors as well. Montas since 2014 has been great, and his pure stuff is better than fulmers. Fulmer is struggling in AA right now. College accolades mean nothing when talking about prospects.
“little miggy” is awful and that nickname is an insult to cabrera
That may be, but the moniker was given to Avisail Garcia while he was a member of the Tigers, well before he was traded to the White Sox.
Well, your comments throw water in the face of all the scouting services that contribute to the ranking of prospects. Trayce Thompson never achieved the status that Garcia did. Fulmer, drafted less than a year ago, has already surpassed Montas’ best ranking which took him 6 minor league seasons to achieve in 2015. It’s also foolhardy to equate better velocity with overall stuff as you appear to be doing with the Fulmer/Montas comparison.
Nobody can know ahead of time which players will ultimately have more productive MLB careers. But thus far, Garcia and Fulmer seem to have the edge, at least according to the scouts…and in Garcia’s case with his better MiLB numbers and quicker ascension to MLB. Fulmer hasn’t had enough pro experience to equitably compare numbers with Montas. That being said, I would very surprised if Fulmer takes more than a year or two before making his MLB debut.
Because he looked like him not because he hit like him ffs.
Montas is 6 months older than fulmer, it’s his fault he was an international signing? Fulmer is getting lit up in double a, Montas made his m.l debut last year at fulmers age. Garcia was never a very highly thought of prospect, he was on a list once and it wasn’t even all lists. Regardless Thompson has ml success l, avi is a career -!1.5 war.
When you talk about Fernandez and Gray you are talking about fielding a package of you MLB players and top top 100 prospects. Which the Soxs don’t have. With the lack of arms in the offseason you can expect both Gms to wait for a package great than that of Miller.
If you want to look at it that way but the Soxs got Frazier because the Dodgers had Turner. The Reds were enamored with the Dodgers package as it was the same they were going to get for Chapman. To think a team like the Marlins needs Garcia is not realistic. I don’t see the As wanting Garcia in the least especially since he’s now arb eligible. Garcia is who he is at this point. Not a very good defensive player a decent mid level player. Thompson holds way more value not that the Dodgers would trade him. He has 6 years of control. He’s a plus defensive cf. He’s shown power and impressive plate disciple. Sure Garcia has better stats but he hasn’t improved when it comes down to it.
In regard to Gray/Fernandez…If Anderson is (only) #45 on BA’s list…that’s not enough even w 2+ additional solid pieces; even then Anderson really can’t be the centerpiece for a legit #1 starter. That said, for Shields I think he’d be a pretty good get w. a lotto ticket or two. Shields is a #3 starter. Ignore his name and look around at other #3s in the league. Now add on top $21m/yr. Money needs to go to CWS if they want anything more than lotto ticket prospects.
The White Sox are actually kind of stupid for not promoting Anderson right now, imo – unless they’re waiting for the cutoff. He’s better than Rollins at hitting and Rollins is league avg at defense right now and really should be on a team with an all-bat SS who he can replace defensively in the late innings.
I think they are trying to hold off on the Super 2 cutoff and just get him as much time as possible in AAA.
How quickly one forgets that SS is a defense first position, something Tim Anderson is still trying to master at AAA. Anderson is not ready for a promotion to the MLB roster at such a key defensive position, especially with a team trying to contend for a playoff spot.
Would love the move for the White Sox. Besides on the field contributions, he’d be another strong, team oriented leader with big game experience. I would assume Rick Hahn isn’t going to be giving up Fulmer, Anderson, Jacob May or any other Top 5 prospect. Courtney Hawkins … maybe, Avi Garcia … maybe. If Avi goes, maybe a LH OF might be coming w Shields? Either way, I like it!
You are grossly over valuing the Sox return assets.
Go get him. This is a winnable division right now. Royals are hurting bad after Salvador Perez knee blowout, Detroit will be a .500 ball club at the end of the day, and Cleveland who looks to be the White Sox major competition this year, has been red hot. Win the division and make the playoffs. Let the 2 wild card teams use their #1 starters in the play-in game and come to Chicago for a 5 game series. Then it’s on. Ride SALE QUINTANA SHIELDS all the way into the WS
thats a huge loss for the royals, this division is winnable for the white sox or indians. No way the royals make a deep playoff run.
But why Shields and not Rich Hill, a guy who is actually pitching like a Cy Young contender right now and has no money or years attached to him?
Hill might be the best starter on the market right now. Lots of teams are going to be bidding for the right to get that guy on their rosters for a playoff push. The sox don’t have the prospects to get in a bidding war. The price of pitching is at an all time high. A number 3 starter that has a 3.06 ERA and routinely pitcher 200 innings will most likely net 1 top 100 prospect and more. Teams aren’t going to settle for quantity over quality and Tim Anderson is good but he isn’t in the same class as the shortstops reaching the majors right now.
Shields gave up a homer to Bartolo Colon. You don’t want him, ChiSox. Especially in that park.
Bartolo is a national treasure! Shields should be honored to have that happen to him.
Bartolo Colon may be a national treasure….in the Dominican Republic!
I figured the depth challenged/light hitting White Sox would be players in the salary dump trade market, but I think most expected them to pursue a bat. Figured they would kick the tires on Reyes, Cargo and Braun. This White Sox team has far greater needs than using their very limited resources on James Shields, poor ROC.
Cargo and Braun, yes. Reyes, absolutely not!
Agree on Shields unless it’s basically a contract dump with some lesser prospects involved. In no way should Anderson, Fulmer or Spencer Adams be involved in any prospective deal. Those assets may be needed later to secure a much needed impact bat, an upgrade a catcher or even to help acquire a dominate reliever like Andrew Miller.
The White Sox are trying to stem their slide in any way possible. Acquiring James Shields should at least give them a more legitimate #2/#3 right-handed starter to slot between Chris Sales and Jose Quintana or Quintana and Carlos Rodon.
As is the case with most any trade for a significant contract, the more dollars the acquiring team is willing to pick up, the less talent goes back in the deal. If this trade happens, it will be interesting to see just how much money owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to take on.
The White Sox aren’t exactly loaded with an abundance of high end prospects in their minor league system. Hopefully, they can save a couple of them for a trade involving a much needed power bat to supplement the middle of their batting order.
Fulmer or Anderson should be able to get it done if the Padres eat some of Shields contract. The bigger issue is the opt out because the Sox don’t know if they’re trading for one year of Shields or three years.
It will not take either one of those guys in the deal. Some rumored names to be in the deal are Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Sure it will. Those guys haven’t proven anything yet in their careers. Shields has.
This is the stupidest line of reasoning I’ve ever seen. You do understand that prospects hold a certain value despite the fact that they “haven’t proven anything” yet in their careers, right? You absolutely fail to take into account the value of players, which requires one to consider any future production from these players at what end up being very cheap rates.
You aren’t gonna get Lucas Giolito for a scrub MLB player, just because Giolito “hasn’t proven anything.”
I’ve seen “strong leader” as a thing the WS value out of Shields a bunch in these comments, the bar is already set pretty low.
Go turn on 670. They just said that it’s Anderson and 3 pitching prospects for Shields, cash, some pitching prospect I have never heard of and Shields waived the opt-out.
So where is this done deal??
Those guys lie for a living.
Well I am one of those guys in that industry, but I’m newer so I don’t have the sources some of them do. Some have legit sources that are in the know, but some do not.
I interned at the Score and know most of them.
Nobody cares. Ask Shep, he thinks you’re a tool too
Blew a 6 run lead again… I think they have other areas to fix… And the multiple automatic outs in the lineup….
I can’t see it being Anderson going the other way. They could do better than Sheilds by dangling Anderson. If the Padres could pull that off it would be a steal.
Answer me this what has Anderson proven at the Major League level?
You’re right. While the Sox are at it, they should trade Miguel Gonzalez for Julio Urias. Then they can roll out a rotation of:
Sale/Quintana/Urias/Rodon/Latos
Altough, Gonzalez’s career 3.85 ERA is MUCH better than Julio’s 10.12 career ERA, so maybe they should just hold onto Gonzalez. Good logic.
Haha, completely different situation. Anderson is nowhere near an elite prospect like Urias and you know it. The fact that you had to make such an outrageous suggestion proves my point.
Baseball prospectus has him 19th overall, he is also top 50 on baseball america, mlb.com, keith law and sickels lists. Most have him as a 55 fv, which is an above average big leaguer. And that is median outcome.
50-55 is average, which is the range Anderson is in on every scouting service. 60 is above average. 65+ is usually considered elite. There are no 80 prospects currently. Tops right now is 70.
No 50 is big league average, 55 is above, 60 is plus, etc etc.
Who cares if he’s an “elite” prospect. He hasn’t proven anything at the big league level. Actually, statistically, he might be the worst starter in baseball at the big league level. He should have no value, unless you want to change your argument that was ridiculously stupid to begin with.
Nothing is as stupid as this post right here, go away man, just leave you are 100% clueless about baseball values.
You need to either read the entire thread or improve your comprehension skills. You are clueless as to what’s actually going on. If you’ve read the entire thread and still think that was a serious trade proposal, you have more issues than TheWestCoastRyan.
If the White Sox make this move that opens the door wide open on a Teheran deal.
Why get another pitcher when you’ve got a jackass for a manager!!!! Ventura is over his head, but because he’s Williams yes man, he has a job. Hey Jerry, are you still sleeping? Are you even alive? Do you see what’s been going on withe the Sox for the past four years? It’s pitiful. Poor free agent signings, no minor league development, and certainly NO motivation on the major league team. Your team is fourth from the last in attendance and now will certainly get worse. R.I.P.
No, no, no, NO! White Sox should be SELLING if anything, not buying. And why trade Tim Anderson? Even if he busts at SS, he’s profiled as a top tier CFer which the Sox need too. In all honesty, it may be time to pull the plug and rebuild. I’d HATE to trade Sale, but maybe it’s time:
Sale and Carson Fulmer to the Cubs for Addison Russell, Schwarber, one of Pierce Johnson/Dylan Cease, either Eloy Jimenez or Billy McKinney, Dan Vogelbach, and two lower level lotto tickets. Cubs get another ace to pair with Arrietta and Lester while adding a great arm to the system and everyone they give up can be replaced. Sox get a nice infusion of young talent to their system, their SS, a power hitting DH.
Or call the Red Sox and try Sale/Fulmer for Bogearts, Devers, either ERod or Owens, Swihart, and three lower level lotto tickets.
The White Sox are in prime position for a playoff spot this season and you want them to sell? The purpose of a franchise is not to build the best farm system. The purpose of a franchise is to build a championship winning major league team. There are different ways to do this, but you don’t ruin a playoff season for woulda, coulda, shoulda.
And BTW, why would you want Bogearts or Russell? Because then Anderson would be blocked and that was the whole point of you wanting to sell, right?.
They won’t trade Tim Anderson. And no the Sox won’t be selling.
Xander is the RedSox SS for the next decade. Sale/Fulmer for Devers Owens Bradley and some A ball prospects not named Espinosa, Kopech or Benintendi… Not sure how that matches up exactly and a very unlikely scenario but fun to talk about.
Unbelievably light. Owens control abandoned him and with an average fastball that makes him completely useless. Bradley, devers, Espinoza is the headline to a sale deal without fulmer.
lol if you think you can get Bogaerts…. and I’m not even a RS fan
The current WC team should sell? You are absolutely insane.
San Diego sports radio is saying it’s a done deal for Tim Anderson, Jordan Guerrero, and a couple of pitching prospects I have never heard of Comito and Tago. From the sounds of what they are saying, the Padres are sending cash and Shields has waived his opt out.
No way this is true hahaha. There is no reason (from Shields’ perspective) for him to commit to opting out or not opting out until his actual opt out date rolls around.
Like he said when he came here, he wants to win. Rings are the answer to why he would do that. Plus, after a down year last year and going into his age 35 season next year, he may not believe he can get much more than $21 million.
You can make a sound argument either way for Shields opting out or not opting out. But there is no logical reason for him to commit to doing one or the other with 2/3 of the season left to play. What if he commits to not opting out then goes on some miracle run and wins the Cy Young Award? Or what if he commits to opting out and then needs Tommy John surgery? This is exactly what opt out clauses are for!
And if he really doesn’t want to play for the Padres there is nothing stopping him from opting out.
If it is Peter Tago, he was a minor league Rule 5 pick from the Rockies a couple of years ago. He is a former sandwich round pick that never could throw strike consistently. I don’t know if he worked through the problem after leaving the Rox, but he was awful when they had him.
No idea. I had never heard of him or the Comito kid. I think this is mainly Shields and cash for Anderson and Guerrero with a couple of throw-ins from the Sox and maybe one from the Padres to make it more equitable. Shields is a workhorse and his current and career ERA makes him very valuable. I would bet the money has to be around $10-12 million going to the White Sox in order to get two good prospects like Anderson and Guerrero. White Sox fans are valuing their prospects way too highly if they don’t think that is a good deal because Anderson is not an elite prospect. He is very good, a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale depending on which scouting service you are looking at(BA, BP or ESPN), but 65+ is considered elite. Padres SS prospects Guerra, Giron and Rondon all rate a 50-55.
Everything you said is wrong I don’t even know where to begin. I guess first is lol at saying white sox fans over valuing prospects and then you saying those 3 guys are 50’s.
fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-…
That was before they all haven’t hit a lick this year 2.
fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-…
Anderson gets a 55 fv with a 65 ceiling. That’s much more impressive.
Lastly his career era doesn’t matter, he is 34, you aren’t paying for what he did in his prime. 10-12 mil doesn’t get you good prospects, he is due 60 mil for 2.7 years. Reasonably he can project for 7 war. That’s 56 mil in value. So 10-12 mil doesn’t even get his contract to even value. The reports of Anderson are because weeks ago it was mentioned they would move him in the right deal. But there is no way he is in a real for just shields without the padres paying the 15 mil left due this year plus at least half the 22 mil next year.
Nobody has Anderson as a 65 ceiling. They ALL rated him a 50 or a 55 prior to the season which is the same time Guerra, Rondon and Jiron were rated. All three of the Padres SS prospects were also rated a 50 or a 55 at that time.
If his career ERA doesn’t matter, then his current one surely does. That is a 3.06. He is due $63 million for 3 years, $21 million each season, and 3 years and the $50-51 million that the White Sox would be paying of his remaining salary is a bargain in today’s market for a guy with an ERA around 3 and that gives you 200 IP every year. It puts his cost to the White Sox at about 20th in baseball per season for the rest of his contract and that is if no one gets more in FA or extensions in the offseason.
1 fWAR was worth $8.25 million last season and will go up each season including 2016. If you said $8.5 million per season over 2016-2018 you would probably be underestimating it, but using that figure 7 fWAR is $59.5 million and if the White Sox are only paying him $50-51 million that is excess value.
What I linked has a 65 ceiling for Anderson. The 55 is his median outcome. If you went to either of the links you would see you were wrong. Reputable people had them at 45 fv’s highest which is a utility guy. Again his current era doesn’t really matter either, it’s 10 starts. His peripherals are what matter and a top 40 hitting prospect is worth 20 mil in surplus value, well more than shields.
I’m case you didnt know shields has lost over 1mph on his fastball this year, which doesn’t bode well for him next year or the following.
Well you’re wrong again. FanGraphs has Anderson as a 60 future value. Here is the link so you can see it.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737508&p…
So when you say nobody has him above a 55, it’s easy to check these things. Instead you just throw out blanket statements that aren’t confirmed.
There’s no point. Facts have no bearing on what he thinks.
Wow what a steal if it is true. San Diego gets its SS of the future by shedding the backloaded deal. Keep Anderson down until the can maybe move Ramirez around the deadline. Got a couple other guys to work with pushing the rebuild.
As a Braves fan I love the deal it just skyrocketed Julo Teheran’s value thru the roof.
Padres already have Rondon in AAA, Guerra in high A, and Giron in low A who are highly regarded shortstop prospects. Anderson would give them someone who could step in at the trade deadline if they are able to move Ramirez.
They are all defense first shortstops with no power and not much in terms of a hit tool. They are looking like utility men at their peak. None of them are well regarded outside of their defense.
Guerra is rated a 55-60 in power, a 60 in Fielding, a 65 Arm and 50-55 overall. Great defense, but power is certainly part of his game. More so than Anderson whose speed was his top tool with hit as his 2nd and power as his least. Take a look at Baseball America, Sickels, or MLB.
Guerra is striking out 33% of the time in high a. Anderson has been above average hitter in aaa. The links I posted above are much more correct. Everyone overreacted to guerra in a ball when he ran a high babip. His swing is terrible and against better pitching isn’t conducive to power. Just look at how the padres prospects are all stalling out in the low minors and Anderson is big league ready.
Everyone overvalues their prospects and undervalues the major league player!
Nothing new here
if we were stockpiled on the farm we wouldnt care but our farm is not stockpiled so its hard to let guys go like anderson.
Everyone overvalues the ml player because they don’t have to pay him 60 mil.
I seem to remember another MI prospect who was untouchable just a few years ago.
I think he ended up a back up IF for the worst team in MLB didn’t he?
The point is….Anderson is nothing until he actually is.
Just like Beckham.
Then again….the Sox have development so many MI’s over the last 30 years.
Beckham has as much trade value as shields right now. Hence why the pads will probably end up kicking in 20 mil minimum.
Ridiculous.
Because? He was a below average pitcher last year, he is owed 60 mil, and has only been 8% better than average for his career.
If “other teams are in the mix,” I can see Cincinnati getting involved and sending Bruce to Chicago, with prospects from the White Sox and San Diego heading to the Reds.
I could see that, but Padres aren’t unloading anything in the process.
Based on the recent Todd Frazier deal, the Reds don’t seem too keen on White Sox prospects. (lol)
In addition, I believe the White Sox would be wise to take a pass on Jay Bruce. Imo, he’s just a younger and less talented version of their recent failed acquisitions, Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche.
Taking to long I don’t think it’s gonna happen
Damn impatient kids.
Scratching my head as to why the White Sox would even consider trading Tim Anderson, a top 50 prospect in baseball, in order to pay James Shields all that money when they could have just signed him as a free agent a year and a half ago and only had to give up a draft pick.
Maybe because they weren’t in the thick of a pennant race a year and a half ago. They chose to trade for Samardzija instead of trying to sign Shields. That didn’t work out, so now they regroup and try something else. Secondly, just because a team want someone on the FA market, doesn’t mean they will automatically get him. Thirdly, a prospect in the same range of Anderson is more likely to become a utility infielder than an All Star.
Firstly, it’s clear from their moves during the 2014-15 offseason that the White Sox were in win now mode at the time. If paying Shields that much money is worth it now, it would have been worth it then. Secondly, Shields signed with the Padres for the sole reason that they offered him the most money (no other team was willing to give him a guaranteed fourth year). If the White Sox had offered Shields more money, he would have signed with them, but they didn’t feel he was worth that much money then and he hasn’t really done anything to prove them wrong since then. Thirdly, there is no way Anderson, a top 50 prospect in baseball, has less value than their fourth round draft pick (the one they would have had to give up to sign Shields a year and a half ago).
What part of they picked Samardzija over Shields do you not get? They were in win now mode, but only needed one starter in their minds. They picked Samardzija over Shields. Now he is gone and they are thinking of picking Shields as his replacement. Yeah if you can see the future and know you might need to trade for him in two years, then sure you might go ahead and sign the guy. But the last time I checked, there were no psychic GMs in the league.
Bottom line, if Shields wasn’t worth that much money a year and a half ago he isn’t worth that much now. He hasn’t exceeded expectations since getting that contract and I don’t think the other 29 teams are regretting not offering him more than we did. If they trade for Shields now they are going to look pretty stupid for not signing him when they had the chance.
It wouldn’t fit budget then, now they still have 14 mil they were going to pay laroche on budget.
No the bottom line is that the White Sox may have very well thought he was worth that much money, but they chose to spend the money elsewhere on someone else that they thought was worth the money.
If you go by a car and have two choices that you absolutely love, you still have to pick one to purchase. That doesn’t mean you don’t think the other is worth the money necessarily, it just means you liked one a little better. If the car you originally chose then gets wrecked or stolen, going and getting your second choice is not a bad idea.
bottom line: how many high priced players DO “exceed” expectations? that’s just not realistic. the only expectations you should have of any free agent is to produce the type of numbers they produced in the past that made them worthy of a big contract. Shields is a guy who averaged around 13-15 wins, 200+ innings and an ERA in the mid 3’s when the Padres signed him and so far, Shields has been everything San Diego could have REALISTICALLY expected. to expect him to suddenly win 20 and a 2.00 ERA just because he got a lot of money is NOT realistic. If anyone trades for Shields now, it’ll be a team looking for a guy who is a dependable starter who will give a team 6-7 innings every start and keep his team in the game. He’s only 2-6 this year for a team that has scored 18 runs in his 10 starts. is he “worth” the money he’s being paid? that’s always a matter of opinion. the market is so bizarre and it pays very well for certain types of players. but he has been everything san diego could have expected.
I really hope Hahn isn’t this stupid, but I have my doubts.
Don’t like this deal for the White Sox on the basis of dollars and years or for Shields, though it is good to see the White Sox making a push while Detroit is down and the Royals are short both Gordon and Moustakas.
Here’s hoping Shields helps make Chicago and the AL Central race a little more interesting down the stretch.
It would be stupid for the sox to get rid of Anderson for a 34 year old
If it’s something like shields, jay, and Rodney + 15 mil then anderson can make sense as a headliner, the problem is they would still need a ss.
It would depend on who the 34 year old is. Adrian Gonzalez is 34 and worth a lot more than Anderson. So are soon to be 34 year olds Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, and Ian Kinsler. Don’t discriminate based on age. Not all 21 year olds are going to be good just because they are young.
Gonzalez is not worth anderson. Cano has a terrible contract attatched, Gonzalez isn’t that good anymore. Molina and kinsler maybe because they don’t have expensive contracts attatched.
You are foolish then and I wish I was trading with you. If you think a lottery ticket prospect is worth more than Adrian Gonzalez, you are a fool and nothing else you say matters to me. Simple as that.
You REALLY need to reevaluate your definition of a “lottery ticket prospect” if you think Tim Anderson is one of them.
Anderson would be like a garunteed profit lottery ticket. In regards to gonzalez, you can project him getting worse and worse and he costs 60 million. If everything works out the absolute best case he gives your team 8 war. Most likely you get around 6. There is no value in his contract. I can’t imagine the Dodgers being able to trade him without eating money or taking back a bad contract.
Interesting. I wonder if this is actually going to happen, or it’s going to fall through at the last minute.
I cannot believe all of these people willing to give up one of the few good prospects in the Sox system (That they desperately need) for a guy who is middling at best, and is a home run allowing machine in Comiskey at worst. He also has an anchor of a contract as well. It smacks of a desperation move and I doubt would instill confidence by the fan base for this executive management (when such confidence barely exists now). This guy strikes me as a Samardzija 2.0 and I would say they should go after him only if they have to give up very little and the Padres eat a good chunk of his salary.
In any case, after the Embarrassing loss today against the Royals if I were the Sox I would be more concerned with whether Ventura should still be the ‘manager’ than trying to get another starter that will be sabotaged by poor late inning management and fielding miscues.
So tell me, what has this “good prospect” you speak of proven at the Major League level thus far in his career?
What has any prospect done, hence prospect titles. You win dumbest comment award.
Quit saying that. It sounds stupid. No prospect has proven anything at the major league level.
Westcoast if you knew anything about baseball you would know how ignorant your comment is
It seems quite puzzling. But I guess since the White Sox figure they have a chance to contend this year, they want to pull out all the stops. Shields wants to win, so it would make sense if he were willing to accept a trade and maybe even wave his opt out clause, especially considering the Padres are not really going anywhere soon. I just wonder how much money they would have to kick in to justify the White Sox trading one of their top prospects.
Waiving his opt out clause makes no sense for him. If he keeps pitching the way he’s been pitching he could very realistically be the best pitcher on the FA market this offseason now that Stras is off the table.
And Shields doesn’t have to accept a trade, he didn’t get a no-trade clause.
Rich Hill is a better pitcher.
Shield could waive his opt out because he gets paid to or simply to facilitate his movement off of that train wreck of a team
That’s right, he doesn’t have an NTC, so really the opt out clause is the only issue. I know that other teams might be involved, but I wonder what’s been holding up the deal so far?
If he wants to be off of “that train wreck of a team” all he has to do is opt out. There is no reason for him to forfeit his right to do that, especially when you consider how well he has been pitching this year and how weak this offseason’s free agent starting pitching market will be.
Except that if he opts out he enters the free agent market, with a qo attached, and needs to find another deal that is better than 2 years @ 42 million as a 35 year old pitcher.
I never said that he should opt out, just that it would be stupid of him to forfeit the right to do so with 2/3 of the season left to play.
Shields has no choice in a deal and he is not waiving any opt out clause. Jesus the things people suggest on this blog. Further what do you mean by saying Shields wants to win? As opposed to wanting to lose? And how does going to the White Sox train wreck help that?
Fulmer Jace Fry and a lower level prospect for shields and 14 million
FIRE WILLIAMS AND VENTURA NOW !!!!
So haven’t made it through all the comments, but with other teams involved, could this be a three team trade? If White Sox are in a full win now mode, could they be unloading the farm for Shields and Braun? Lot of money to take on, but they have enough prospect talent to have each team eat some money.
That’s what I’m starting to think. Maybe there is a third team involved, to what degree I don’t know. Would the Padres still be willing to send money with Shields of this were the case, or are they just trying to unload the contract?
Well you know how it goes with money, if acquiring team wants money, they give up higher prospect. If Pads not chipping in, they don’t get as high a return. Will be interesting, but I am a trades/transactions fan.
Me too, I find it quite fascinating. It seems like this possible trade is yet another way Preller is trying to undo the damage from last year’s splurge. Maybe he can pull something off.
I swear Hahn got things going well.
So SD radio throws out random names. The guy who I heard about this first from said two names he heard involved were Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr. Said money was still being discussed and that lesser players could be involved as well.
He had this two days ago before Dennis Lin put it out. Plus there’s been some rumblings for about a week.
If these are the names headlining this trade from the White Sox side, I would be very surprised to see any kind of substantial money coming with Shields.
This is the kind of deal that would actually make sense.
The Sox should try to get Manny Margot and/or Hunter Renfroe too. They could be the starting CF and DH by the end of the year. Neither one has proven anything at the big league level, so they should come cheap, right?
absolutely. Jroll should get you both Margot and Renfroe. He has proven waaaaay more at the MLB level. Just look at his career stats.
I think another guy that could come with Shields is Fernando Rodney. The Sox could use help in the pen and Rodney serves no purpose for the Padres. Plus I really want to see Rodney shoot arrows.
It would be interesting to include Rodney – I mean the Padres aren’t going anywhere and don’t need an old closer, while the White Sox have some serious bullpen issues. The Padres have another cheap bullpen piece in Ryan Buchter, who is having a fantastic season as a LOOGY. The only dilemma for the Padres is that, right now, Rodney is almost certainly their only All-Star.. The ASG is being played in SD this season, and it might be a bit embarrassing for the team if its only all-star ends up being Melvin Upton Jr. or Drew Pomeranz. At least Rodney has name value.
I don’t understand, are the Padres folding? Margot is THEIR cf next year, dummy.
You clearly haven’t read the entire thread, or you have a horrible understanding of what’s going on.
He was being sarcastic
So how was that SD radio station lie yall kept posting yesterday? Stop believing radio, its their job just to keep talking, they made up that rumor, 100%.
Prospects are prospects until they prove thwy can be effective in the Majors. AAA AA or single A dont mean shyt.
The padres arent going to let go of a good durable sp with a long term record of high innings and success at the majors for random prospects. At least 1 top guy either anderson or fullmer and 2 other decent prospects should be going to san diego.
No
Shields is a number 3 starter and the cost of pitching is at a premium. The only thing that drags Shields value down below a number 3 level is the price tag. If San Diego eats some of that deal like around $15 million then they will get a top 100 prospect back in return. The market is what it is right now and when trades like the Shelby Miller deal drive up the market GMs will sit and wait to get what they want. Remember San Diego is in no hurry to trade Shields. If I were the Sox I would pull the trigger on a Tim Anderson trade, but if the even asked for Fulmer also I would walk away from the table. The Sox have a legitimate chance at a playoff berth and will be hard to beat in any series with Sale and Quintana at the front end. Shields gives them a solid 3 and then they dip back into the market to look for a DH/OF.
Shelby Miller drives nothing. Multiple sources around baseball were cited as saying that was a horrible trade and it is universally panned by everyone who is not an ignorant diamondbacks homer. Bad trades do not set the market standard.
Also, James Shields is not a #3. He was worth 1.1 fWar last year and is on pace for about 2.4 this year. That is more #4/5 territory.
Shelby Miller trade has no effect on the market, it was always seen as unbelievable overpay to everyone in baseball. Look at how the trade has worked out as well. If anything it hurt the market as it puts a greater emphasis on how volatile pitching is. They need a ss and a better hitting cf, this idea of needing a premium bat is overblown. On aggregate between all ranking sytems tim anderson was the 33rd best prospect. The sox system has arms, that is where they will deal from.
Why do morons keep bringing up Shelby Miller like like other teams are forced to make such stupid overpays because the Diamondbacks did?? Diamondbacks were called idiots by everyone even then! Now with Miller being like second worst starter in baseball some idiots think the market now is three top prospects for one of the worst pitchers in baseball? Hahaha morons!
Oh ok Richard … Shelby Miller ups the ante on nothing then who can make the dumbest trade
In no way is Shields bringing back any sort of “package”. He’s a league average pitcher, aging and owed nearly $60 million. He’s well below his peak. The idea that the Padres can get a top 100, much less top 50 prospect for him is laughable.
He’s pitching better this year than any year since 2011 when he made the All Star game.
Well, first, that doesn’t really matter that much with him, because he’s still owed about as much $ as he’s producing and he has 2 more years left, which could very well go back to last year.
Second, no he isn’t. He was better in 2012, 2013, and 2014. His lob% is about 3% higher than normal. That ERA is a mirage. Look at his fip and xfip.
His ERA is exactly what it is. These sabermetric stats are totally out of control. To many human elements not takin into account. You stat nerds are rediculous.
A.j Burnett had a 2.11 e.r.a last year at the all star break. He finished the season with a 3.18 era. So no e.r.a has no relevance, it shows nothing of how he is pitching.
Old School ignorant fans are ridiculous.
Well yes, his era is what it is, that doesn’t mean that he is better this year. I’m sorry that you can’t understand why something like ERA through 1/3 of a season, which sees a pitcher posting one of the best lob% of his career is likely not a real measure of his true talent level.
You can go ahead and keep your head in the sand. It seems that a large portion of baseball fandom has chosen to use available information instead of sticking their fingers in their ears.
Also…ridiculous. If you’re going to try to insult me, can you at least spell it correctly?
Hey I don’t even know why they bother playing the games anymore. The stat nerds got it all figured out you guys could calculate the World Series champs every year. Sorry I will take the word and opinion of a guy who actually watches games and played the game and knows the mental aspect as well as the physical aspect of the game.
Playing 13 out of every 14 days over the course of 7 months. Being away from your wife and kids for weeks at a time. Language barriers for foreign players. Baseball is the mentally hardest professional sport and the analytics you throw out do not take any of that into consideration. Sorry I can’t respect every analytic out there.
Baseball is a game of failures and the most important part of the game for any position is the ability to recover snd shake off failure.
Who’s word, who’s opinion? What does any of that have to do with projecting future performance of aging vets? You don’t trade for the starts that already happened. Why would I care what his era in a 10 game sample is for the padres. Of I acquire him for 22 games in a different league and different park I have to project how he will do there.
If you look at his track record Shields has been able to outperform his FIP and xFIP in most seasons. You can’t just blindly follow those stats when some pitchers are better than others at limiting batting average on balls in play and stranding runners.
In the end, a pitcher’s only job is to prevent the opponent from scoring runs and ERA measures how well he has done that. Therefore, Shields is indeed better this year than he was in 2012, 2013 or 2014.
“So no e.r.a has no relevance, it shows nothing of how he is pitching.”
Lol you probably think Colby Lewis was a better pitcher last year than Shelby Miller XD
You realize his career era would match his fip if it wasnt for his years pitching in front of the royals defense right? The royals had the best d so all their starters best their fips, it had nothing to do with shields.
But ERA doesn’t measure that, at all. Here’s a hypothetical inning. 1st batter strikes out. second batter grounds out to short. third batter reaches on an error by the second baseman. fourth batter draws a walk. 5th batter hits a three-run homer. sixt batter flies out. Runs allowed by the pitcher in that inning – three. Pitcher ERA for that inning? 0.00.
This is why FIP is a useful piece of information to have, because it accounts only for the things a pitcher can control. If a pitcher’s FIP and ERA are way out of whack, in either direction, you can reasonaby expect a course correction as the season goes on. And if you look at the numbers that’s basically what always happens.
Yes, FIP is definitely a useful piece of information to have, but it’s not the end-all-be-all. If a pitcher is able to regularly outperform his FIP by limiting hard contact and being good at holding runners on I wouldn’t question it.
Really, all of those metrics, ERA, FIP xFIP and whatever else there is taken together can paint a good picture of how well a guy has been pitching. But blindly following FIP is just as bad as blindly following ERA.
sox need a LHd bat more than anything
They need a reliever. They should have swept the Royals .
That pretty much sums it up. Should’ve been a rather easy sweep.
They need a lot of things……. which is why this move would be pointless. If only they’d commit to a legitimate rebuild. Until they do that they will continue being the mediocre team they have been since their WS in 2005. They have a .490 winning percentage since that season. The Cubs, who have torn their team apart to bare bones and rebuilt it in that same timeframe have a .478 winning percentage since the Sox won the WS…….. so one team who purposely and strategically sucked on purpose for 4-5 years has a similar winning percentage as the Sox who have been actively been just trying to be “just good.” Cubs have also been to 3 postseasons int he last 10 years to the Sox’ 1. Until Reinsdorf dies or finally comes to his senses they will perpetually be in baseball hell. They need to rebuild ASAP. Good news for my cross town rival fans is that Reinsdorf is overweight and is 80 years old…… so maybe it won’t be long until he bites the dust. When that happens expect a legitimate rebuild. It’s horrible to say or even think about, but it’s true. Reinsdorf’s unwillingness to rebuild is why this team won’t do anything in the foreseeable future. I understand his refusal though. I mean when his team is doing great he only draws 20-25,000 fans. This year they’re 1 game back and they’re only drawing a hair over 20,000 per game……. now that they got swept in horrible fashion by the Royals I expect that number to fall. So imagine what a rebuild would mean….. as in them purposely being bad. They wouldn’t even draw 10,000 people to that stadium. That’s almost “relocate the team” worthy attendance. And yes I do think attendance would go that low. There have been a few games already this year I’ve caught when flipping through the channels and it didn’t look like they had enough fans there to fill two sections of seating. And that was earlier this year when the Sox were dominating. Imagine what 95-105 loss teams would draw when you KNOW they aren’t going to be good going into the season. 10,000/game might be a little optimistic. So I get why Reinsdorf doesn’t want to implode the team….. even though it would be the best thing to do in the long run.
I said this before the offseason, I wanted to trade jose abreu for a.j. reed, Tony Kemp and Francis montas. Imagine in the off-season what they could get for sale, q, abreu, eaton, Robertson. They would absolutely have the best farm in baseball. Urias, de leon and Holmes for sale. Soler, cease, gleyber torres, candelerio for quintana. Eaton and Robertson for devers, Espinoza, and kopich. Imagine that roster at the end of 2017. Reed at 1st, Anderson at second, torres at short, devers at third, Soler in left, Kemp in center. Rotation of urias, rodon, De leon, montas, Holmes. Cease ready in 2018, candelerio as a 1b/3b. Spencer adams, fulmer, tyler Danish still in the system, no payroll on the books past 2018. Man the teams that rebuild usually don’t have much left on the roster, but the sox had good pieces on good deals.
Your suggestion has some merit but what’s the likelihood of the current White Sox organization going down that path? At 80, I don’t think owner Jerry Reinsdorf has the stomach to undertake a full rebuild, something that hasn’t really occurred during his 35 year reign anyway.
It’s more likely than not that Reinsdorf will sell his baseball team within the next 5 years or so. Michael, his one son who is involved with him in professional sports, has expressed a desire to continue running the Bulls, not the White Sox. Imo, Jerry will try to add to his legacy by shooting for another World Series championship during the existing time frame of the team’s current team friendly deals that are in place with Chris Sale, Jose Abreu, Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton. Reinsdorf and his front office, whom he remains forever loyal to, will likely continue to add pieces as they have already demonstrated during the past two off-seasons.
It will probably be up to the next ownership group to undertake a full rebuild, much like what the Cubs eventually did when leveraged owner Tom Ricketts bought the team from Sam Zell who owned the Tribune Company.
I don’t get the obsession with White Sox fans about a left-handed bat. How about they just concentrate on the best bat available, perhaps somebody like Ryan Braun or even Yasiel Puig. Either would be a substantial improvement to the middle of their batting order and better than most any other name I’ve seen speculated upon short of Carlos Gonzalez.
Do White Sox fans really believe that Jay Bruce is the answer just because he bats from the left side? Need I remind you of the Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche debacles?
Ted Williams isn’t always available for the taking. Sometimes you just have to make do with a Willie Mays. (lol)
100% agree
If the White sox make this trade, shields better not opt out then
Therein lies the problem. Any trade involving Shields would be complicated because the acquiring team won’t know if they’re getting him for 1 year or 3 years until after the trade is agreed upon.
This is false, there is almost 0 chance he opts out. He isn’t getting more than 2yrs/44 mil on the open market and that’s the garunteed money he has left after this year.
You’re probably right but he still CAN opt out. And after seeing what lesser pitchers got in free agency last year and knowing that it’s entirely possible that he would be the best free agent starter available this offseason there’s definitely a chance he opts out.
Does “fluid” mean anyone pulling the trigger will need a stiff drink afterwards?
I thought fluid trade talks only occurred back in the day and during the winter meeting when GM’s actually sat at the hotel bar to hammer out deals. Those days are long gone with the advent of smart phones and the need to consult agents and ownership before consummating deals.
To Sox fans saying Shields is garbage and would be another Samardzija coming to US Cellular because he is a flyball pitcher and gives up a lot of HRs. I’m impressed with your psychic skills. But let’s “pretend” you can’t tell the future and look at the numbers. Shields over his career has a 0.86 ground ball to flyball ratio. Jose Quintana has a 0.87 ratio. That’s about as dead on as you can get without being dead on. For those who don’t understand GB/FB ratios what I just said pretty much means that Shields induces flyballs and ground balls at pretty much the same rate as Quintana. The reason Samardzija sucked last year was because of a few reasons. The main two being he was overthrowing and trying to be perfect in his free agent year. The second is because Cooper fucked with him. He hardly threw his 2 seam fastball last year and was throwing more split fastballs and cutters. Couple that with him overthrowing and playing for a pay day he was throwing those cutters and splitters up in the zone….. because that’s what happens when you overthrow….. and as a result he got hit hard. As for Samardzija sucking because he played in the HR friendly Cell……. US Cellular isn’t that much more HR friendly than Wrigley and Wrigley is a fringe neutral park leaning toward the HR friendly side of the spectrum. And Samardzija’s GB/FB ratio……. exactly the same as Quintana’s, 0.87, so that argument is null and void. In other words, this “Shields is a flyball pitcher just like Samardzija and will suck once he comes over here just like Samardzija did” is invalid….. if it was valid then using your logic Quintana is also a flyball pitcher and is a freak because he has had success at the Cell or is due for a huge collapse here soon because his GB/FB ratio for his career is exactly the same as Shields’ and Samardzija’s.
Try again.
Everything you posted is wrong, I’ll explain a big portion of these stats that’s overlooked, pop ups count as fly balls, pop ups are the easiest out to complete after the strike out. Keep this in mind
Quintana 45% gb, 33.1%fb, 10%pop up, 8%hr/fb
Shields 44.8% gb, 35.5% fb, 8.7% pop up, 11.8% hr/fb.
Now you are also more likely to pull the ball for power, and shields allows more balls to be pulled. You are right that his homers don’t really have to do with flyball rate, you are wrong in assuming that moving to the cell wouldn’t hurt him.
Try again … Ok …. Go ahead and try again kb … Try to say something that makes sense. Shields is a fly ball pitcher. Take that kb
Just as I had surmised earlier, that the White Sox decision to acquire James Shields would come down to their willingness to pick up a substantial portion of his contract. At least Tim Anderson is off the table, at least according to Bruce Levine, and thank goodness for that.
It’s now owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s chance to step up to the plate and OK the deal for much needed pitching help, and the front office’s job to hammer out an acceptable trade to the Padres that will also not involve the organization’s #1 prospect, pitcher Carson Fulmer.
Anderson or Fulmer are indeed open for discussion in a Shields trade. They haven’t proven jack yet in their careers. Shields has.
That’s fine. Padres should send Margot and Renfroe with Shields though. They haven’t proven jack yet in their careers.
Sure if the Sox give us a controllable Major League piece. No point in giving Margot and Renfroe up when we aren’t contending unless we get someone back who can help us when we are.
Sure. You can take Nate Jones and Erik Johnson. Nate has a career ERA of 3.40 and is under contract through 2018 – he also has 3 club options that can take him through 2021. Erik Johnson has a career 4.50 ERA and won’t be up for free agency until 2022. We’ll also send you Avisail Garcia; he’s not going to be a free agent until 2020. He’s a career .263 hitter at the big league level.
That’s a ton of control for 3 players who have proven a lot more at the big league level than Margot and Renfroe.
You missed the help us contend part lol. Garcia jones and johnson won’t be helping them contend…..well, for a top 5 draft pick if anything.
I don’t see the White Sox including either Nate Jones or Avisail Garcia in a potential trade for James Shields. Despite Jones recent meltdowns (which club reliever hasn’t lately?) he is still their primary 8th inning setup man. Avisail Garcia might also be a logical piece to help acquire a much needed bat this summer, especially since it would likely come in the form of a corner outfielder, his natural position.
Dude, he was joking, because TWCR keeps spewing this, “what have prospects proven yet” garbage every time someone tells him that his team isn’t getting a top prospect for an over the hill, over paid pitcher.
Avi Garcia is not going to help acquire anything. He is an abysmal defender and barely over league average with the bat.
Priggs you are an idiot. You think they Padres have to throw in Margot and Renfroe because they are not “proven” in mlb? Besides how dumb you are why do you want them so bad if they are not proven in MLB
He’s making fun of westcoast’s constant comments that a prospect “hasn’t proven jack yet”. Read the whole thread before making asinine comments.
Another person with no clue as to what has been going on in this thread.
James Shields would be a great fit on the South Side of Chicago. They already have a street with his surname that runs adjacent to U.S. Cellular Field at 35th St. (lol)
Where is PadsFan at? Where are the people talking about the 670 The Score beat writers? Bruce Levine (their only beat writer) is saying that Tim Anderson will not be involved in any James Shields deal. The Padres asked and were shut down. It looks as if it will be Erik Johnson and lesser prospects.
So again, where are all the people that were saying Anderson wouldn’t be enough? That was obviously San Diego radio people hoping for someone like Anderson knowing it would be a steal.
Lol, Anderson was in discussion if padres ate 60-75% of the money owed- white sox probably said 80-90%. If Erik johnson is on the table they eat 5-10% or less depending on other pieces.
Also, the padres don’t have to trade Shields. Literally 2 months before the deadline. Tbey could hold on to him, wait for an injury to a contender, trade him then.
Source? Or do you just continue to make stuff up?
Do you seriously need a source to believe that if the padres wanted tim anderson then theyd need to eat a significant portion of shields salary? If he’s off the table a. The two.sides couldn’t agree on the exact number or b. The white soxs wanted the padres to cover close to all the salary committment.
Furthermore, if the Padres are trading shields for a lesser pitcher in erik johnson they arent going to eat a good portion of his salary, take lesser pitcher, and even lesser prospects. They shipped gyorko and 5 or 7 mill to st louis for a year of jon jay. Preller has already established he will ship a big contract and a little money for a rental.
Preller has established that he is an aim high kind of GM. For instancr, dbacks asked for kimbrel he said give me goldschmidt. If the white sox called about shields course he asked about fuller and anderson. If they balked at both he’d of just ended the discussion. Since they haven’t it was at least discussed. Plenty of teams have interet in shields and you can guess what ones. It’s either best deal at this point or least salary eaten.
I don’t think Tim Anderson was ever on the table. And I think that even someone like Erik Johnson would still require the padres to eat more than 5% of Shield’s contract.
So yes, I’d like to know your source for this information that you are stating as if it is factual.
There is a difference between being an aim high GM and being an idiot who ask for Goldschmidt in exchange for Kimbrel
You mean erik johnson who every year hes up has an xfip of 4.7 or worse? Lol yeah, he’s not worth more then 5% of shields contract. They might as well hold on to shields if that’s what the white sox are offering.
In 18 career starts he’s got an xfip of 4.98 and an fip of 5.68. He’s not worth 2.9 million the padres would throw the sox way. Not even close.
To be fair Preller was apparently getting a bunch of lowball offers for his trade chips at the deadline so he might have been trying to “stick it to them” if you know what I mean.
Good point. If you want Anderson then Padres take 60 per cent of the salary. Now you have a pitcher like Shields for 3 YRS at 9 million a year. The key is that the Sox are not desperate right now. They have a pretty good staff already, easily second best in their division. I doubt the Padres are that desperate they are going to eat that much salary.
Both sides are probing for weakness.
Pads Fans is a known troll. Don’t take anything he says seriously hahaha.
Coming from you, this is hilarious. He just hasn’t proven jack yet, right?
Never said Anderson wasn’t enough. Just said I would trade him. Moron
You’d trade Anderson for James Shields and you’re trying to call someone else a moron?
You also said that you’ve read where multiple people have talked about Anderson not being able to “handle” the big city or that he is really hard on himself, though you haven’t posted a link to back up that statement. You just spew stuff out.
You were also the one that said all the beat writers at 670 The Score were saying Anderson was part of the deal. First thing Bruce Levine (their ONLY beat writer) says was that Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in any trade for James Shields. So again you are wrong and just making stuff up.
And yet I’m the moron. Ok buddy. Whatever makes you feel better.
Yeah you are. Go back and read what I said about the best writers for the CUBS not the score. Damn man, the SOX, not you or any other idiot that says “we”, won the World Series in 05. I’m sure you’re going to break out the “the Cubs haven’t won in 108 years!” Crap. I’m sorry, but I guess once in 99 years is a real dynasty. I don’t like Anderson as a prospect, deal with the opinion of someone who doesn’t agree with you. Moron
Beat* writers. And I never said he was in the deal. Once again. Moron
“cubsfan24891 day ago
And Corey Patterson was high on the ranks too and look what happened to him. Listen to any of the beat writers on 670 the score talk about him. He gets down on himself extremely hard when he doesn’t succeed right away. Confidence issues. The kid is young. All I’m saying is id trade him if I were the Sox. I don’t “hate” the sox. I’m just stating that I personally would trade him. What position players have the sox drafted and developed? Their thing is drafting pitchers. Until they get rid of Kenny Williams as the head honcho, expect more of the same. Also, Ventura is easily one of, if not the worst manager in baseball. Make Renteria the manager and can Robin. Then I can see the Sox turning their season around instead of continuing the slide they’ve been on. How bad of a sign is it when you have Sale scheduled for Monday, and because of last nights debacle, along with Friday’s, he’s now pitching today? Horribly ran team the past few years. And it all starts with Kenny.”
Ok so first of all you don’t mention the Cubs at all. Why would you trust Cubs’ writers talking about White Sox prospects?? That makes no sense. I didn’t mention the White Sox World Series once, you brought it up, I haven’t even mentioned the Cubs except for the fact that you seem like a Cubs fan that clearly hates the White Sox, which is fine, have your opinion. They’re stupid, but hey, a majority of sports fans are stupid. You’re just one of them.
Second, you say you the Cubs, not the Score, ok please look to the top of this post where I quoted you saying the beat writers at 670 The Score. It’s clearly right there. See I go back and look at stuff, I don’t try and just make up whatever tries to make me sound best. I fact check, I read and I watch a ton. You probably read 0.5% of what I watch, read and listen to.
You can have your opinion on Tim Anderson, that’s fine. But one post you say you think he is a bust, the next post you say you think he will be a fine major league player, but you would trade him for Shields.
So which is it? Is he a bust or is he going to be a fine major league player. And before you say that you didn’t type that stuff, scroll up through this entire comment section and look at all of your comments. It’s right there buddy.
Again to all people, fact checking and going back to see what you wrote isn’t hard. Do it.
So again, tell me how I’m the moron when you are the one who is clearly speaking out of both sides of your mouth, not fact checking anything you say and don’t even remember what you typed in this exact thread even though you can go back and look.
Name call all you want and try and make this about a White Sox/Cubs thing with World Series, but I’m not going to do that. I’m rooting for the Cubs when they don’t play the White Sox.
Oh and again, can you link something one of these great Cubs writers have written about Tim Anderson not being able to play in a big market? PLEASE, I’d love to read it.
Oh give me a break with what you call “Cub” or “Sox” writers like either are biased against the others prospects? Grow up. The white sox would be fools to trade Anderson or Fulmer for Shields period.
I don’t know if this was directed at me, but the reason I said it is because Cubs writers don’t follow White Sox prospects, just like any team’s writers don’t follow any other team’s prospects close enough to write a piece let alone make statements like he made.
Beat writers don’t follow other teams prospects? Really? That’s news to me. Hmm, guess since you interned at the score you know everything. Tell me again, what station are you on now?
Please show me where they wrote about Tim Anderson. PLEASE send me the link. Quit talking about it and prove it. Show me an actual article of a Cubs writer talking about Tim Anderson and not being able to play in a big market.
And I work for Yahoo Sports Radio’s national network. OK then.
PLEASE show me your proof of these comments you keep making. I’ll be the first to say I was wrong. But until you do, it’s dumb. Because it doesn’t happen. The only time a beat writer of a different team mentions a prospect is when they are involved in trade rumors.
OK thanks.
I just love you add nothing to the conversation. It’s just comment after comment with NO proof. You can’t even remember what you say.
You don’t even respond to what I say in my posts, you just go to the 12 year old response of “what station do you work for” or “next you’re going to bring up the Cubs haven’t won in 108 years” or “you probably still talk about the White Sox ’05 World Series”, when I haven’t said a word about either of the last 2.
I edited your comments. Please avoid personal attacks and foul language.
Wonder if the Mets are looking at shields with Harvey’s issues. Also the Phillies who could use a veteran presence in the rotation. Also if the Dodgers take the contract entirely wiuld the padres do it?
White Soxs want him, they are looking at taking on sugnificant part of that contract.
Why would the Phillies want Shields?????? To make sure they aren’t last in the NL East? If so, they don’t need him. They are much better than the Braves this year even without him.
Seriously, the Phillies are a rebuilding team. Rebuilding teams don’t trade for overpaid 34 year-old starting pitchers.
If the phillies and marlins are within ear shot of a wc they could use shields for the long haul. Also, if the mets want shields phillies/marlins could make a bid for him just to not have to face him. Both teams are 26-24 at the moment. Phillies lost morton for the year.
Phillies have 19 or so games left against the marlins and 13 or so games left against the mets.
Trading for Shields makes no sense for the Phillies in any way, shape or form.
The Phillies need to be getting younger and cheaper right now. And they certainly shouldn’t be aiming for a Wild Card spot this season. Rebuilding takes time and patience. And there’s no rush to contend for them either. Everyone they have who’s contributing is controlled for years.
I edited your comments. Please avoid personal attacks.
In addition, starting pitching should be the least of the Mets’ concerns and losing Morton for the season won’t be the reason the Phillies don’t make the playoffs.
Yes, how dare the phillies exceed expectations and be ahead of schedule. I should or you should call them, tell them to quit winning this season and not try for a wild card. Seriously, just think about what you said. “Shouldn’t be aiming for a wild card this season.”
Also, the whole phillies could use shields depends on IF theyre within ear shot of a wc. Theres 2 months before the deadline. Anything could happen. IF they are indeed within ear shot of a wc shields 1. Stabilizes the rotation so the bullpen doesnt get over worked down the hme stretch and 2. Provides a veteran leadership to the rotation which they lost with morton. 3. He’s cheaper then what it would cost to get a similar arm in terms of prospects.
Aside from hellickson they have young arms which can and will get tired. Lol, yeah phillies couldn’t use him at all IF they are pushing for a wc come july.
Also you missed the whole- marlins mets phillies could all theoretically go after shields and it becomes a we want him so my rivals don’t get him situation.
Like I said, when you rebuild you have to commit to rebuilding. The Phillies rotation has been a pleasant surprise this year but as a team they aren’t quite there yet. Trying to make a run for it this year would be counterproductive towards their future chances of contending which is what they should be and are focusing on right now.
For the third time, rebuilding teams don’t trade for old, overpaid starting pitchers. Just wait and see. Come the trade deadline Hellickson will be gone, Ruiz and Howard will be gone with the Phillies paying most of their remaining salaries if some contender feels that either of those guys can help them in their playoff push and the Phillies will NOT be trading for Shields.
And yes, winning this season IS counterproductive for the Phillies as it hurts their draft position.
LOL considering the amount of draft busts there are in baseball the phillies draft position isn’t as important. So they draft towards the bottom of the 1st round, they can still draft high end talent that slips out down due to monetary reasons or take chances on guys who got hurt but have high upside and will cost less.
Trading for shields doesnt jeopardize them…..theyll be losing salary in the off season. Course they could always trade matt harrison and others for shields to cover his costs. Thats a possibility.
Hahahahaha you’re really reaching here. The higher the Phillies draft, the less likely it is that their first rounder will be a bust. So yes, there IS a strategic incentive to losing this season. And there’s no way they trade Harrison and prospects for Shields. They would have to give up TONS of prospect capital to do that. The Phillies need to be hoarding prospects, not trading them for overpaid 34 year-old starting pitchers. They have the financial resources to absorb the remainder of Harrison’s salary and that is what they intend to do.
Sorry bud but you are the only person on this planet who thinks the Phillies are even in the conversation for Shields. Quit while you’re far behind.
Did I say theyre in contention at this moment? No I did not. What I did say is its 2 months before the trade deadline and if the phillies are contending for a wc spot shields would help down the stretch.
You seriously think theyd have to give up TONS of prospects for shields? They take half salary they essentially give up 1 guy in their 10-15 range and 1 or 2 in the 20-30 range.
Matt Harrison is making 13 mil sitting on the DL. Shields is making 21 not on the DL pitching decently.
Here are the last 10 top 5 draft picks starting in 2013 going backwards
2013: appel, bryant, gray, stewart, frazirt. 2/5 are showing promise.
2012: correa, buxton, zunino, gausman, zimmer 2/5 could be 3/5 zunino n zimmer, buxton could be another profar.
2011: cole, hultzen, bauer, bundy, starling. 1/5, maybe 2/5 but bauer was traded.
2010: harper, taillon, machado, colon, pomeranz 2/5 as pomeranz bounced around.
2009: strasburg, ackley, tate, sanchez, hobgood 1/5
2008: beckham, alvarez, hosmer, matuzs, posey 3/5 alvarez didnt make it in pitt and beckham is just now up.
2007: price, moustakas, vitters, moskos, wieters 3/5
2006: hochevar, reynolds, longoria, lincoln, morrow. 1/5
2005: upton, gordon, clement, zimmerman, braun. 4/5
2004: bush, verlander, humber, niemann, rogers I/5
2003: young, weeks, sleeth, stauffer, lubanski 2/5.
Thats 24/55 picks that did live up to their draft status and 31/55 that did not. Yeah they have a much higher rate alright LOL.
Facts seems to prove you wrong. I suggest you look things up before commenting any further.
Big…that’s a great post. Draft picks and prospects might excite the fans (look how packed the NFL draft is every year) but picking HS and College talents is really a shot in the dark. Shields doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Phillies right now, however for the White Sox, it makes perfect sense. And the notion not to trade Anderson for him….who knows? He’s not ARod. Maybe he’ll be a decent pro and maybe not. Since I doubt most people posting about Anderson in this channel have ever seen him play, I won’t put too much stock into their comments. I do remember thinking when the Rangers traded for Cliff Lee, Texas had made a bad deal. They sent two of their #1 picks, Black Beaven and Justin Smoak to Seattle for Lee. And Lee didn’t do that great for the Rangers — until the playoffs. Texas would not have been to the World Series that year without Lee. Of course, the Rangers did not resign him—and that turned out to be a good deal for Texas. Beaven and Smoak still haven’t done much in MLB.
That doesn’t prove anything. You failed to show the success rate of prospects drafted everywhere else in the draft. I’ll bet you it’s lower than the success rate of prospects taken in the top 5. And even if it isn’t, the point is the higher the Phillies draft, the more players will be available for them to take. For example, that future Mike Trout who you think is waiting at the end of the first round? There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from taking him early in the first round.. Regardless of where they draft, they have to hope their scouts have noses for talent.
They WOULD have to give up tons of prospects for Shields if they’re trying to shed Harrison’s salary. The more salary the Padres eat, the better prospects they get back. The Phillies already took on Harrison just to increase the return in the Cole Hamels trade so trying to get rid of him would be counter to their M.O.
But this is all a moot point because the Phillies ARE rebuilding and when you rebuild you have to stick to the plan.
People have studied this. Unsurprisingly, generally, higher picks return much more future WAR. It’s not a total crapshoot, even if any given player has a high bust rate.
2013 10-20 22 bickford, smith, peterson, renfoe, mcguire, shipley, crawford, anderson, anderson, gonzalez, crawford. 5/10 look promising off top of my head.
2012 10-20 Dahl, Russel, cecchini, hawkins, Travieso, naquin, giolito, davis, seager, wacha.
4/10 esp giolito seager wacha russel have been way above their draft status.
2011: spangenberg, springer, jungmann, nimmo, fernadez, bradley, reed, cron, gray, barnes, anderson. 4/10
2010 choice, mcguire, grandal, sale, covey, skole, simpson, sale, cowart, foltynewicz, vitek. 4/10.
2009: Storen, Matzek, Crow, Green, Purke, White, Bochering, Pollock, James, Miller, Jenkins. 3/10.
2008: Crow, Castro, Smoak, Weeks, Wallace, Hicks, Martin, Lawrie, Cooper, Davis, Cashner. 7/10.
Actually, the 10-20 range has produced more from 2007-2013 then 1-5 percent wise.
2006: Lincecum, Scherzer, Kiker, Colvin, Snider, Marrero, Jeffress, Antonelli, Drabek, Sinkbell, Parmalee. 3/10
2005: Maybin, a McCutchen, Bruce, Snyder, Crowe, Broadway, Volstad, Carrilo, Mayberry, Pawelek. 3/10 if you count maybins talent but injury probs.
2004: Diamond, Walker, Weaver, Bray, Butler, Drew, Prucey, Fields, Labert, Plouffe, 5/10
2003 was stewart, aubrey, milledge, hill, wagner, anderson, alliso, murphy, snyder, jackson, cordero. Not sure of these ppl.
So thats 38/90.
24/55 1-5 picks is a 43.6% accuracy. 38/90 is 42.2%. Yeah, really SUCH a statistical difference to pick outside the top 5 LOL.
Seriously, considering 10 picks vs. 5 allows for more busts the numbers aren’t that far off. Also, you see more premier superstar names in the 10-20 range then 1-5 over the 10 year span.
10-20 range is where the phillies would wind up if they go contend for a wildcard spot.
Also guys fall towards the bottom of the 1st not cause of lack.of talent evals only. Guys committ to college and take a fall.due.to that as well. Also, drafting him and not signing grants an extra 1st the following year. So they can have that luxury.
As far as harrison trading shields for harrison is a difference of 8 mill. Say the padres take harrison, 1 8-10 prosp and 2 lower guys 18-20 in the system for shields and 9 mill to.cover 3 mill a season drops the difference to 5 mill.more for shields over harrison.
That player you are talking about who might be available towards the bottom of the first round will also be available for the Phillies to take if they draft earlier, as will many other guys. So yes, there is a strategic benefit to drafting earlier.
You’re forgetting that Matt Harrison is a sunk cost while Shields is still a quality Major League starter. The Phillies would have to give up more than one 8-10 prospect and 2 lower guys to shed Harrison’s contract. Including Shields in the trade wouldn’t change that.
And once again the Phillies aren’t looking to give up prospects right now. They already have shown a willingness to acquire prospects by taking on salary and trying to dump Harrison on someone else would be contrary to that.
Just admit it bro, a Shields to the Phillies trade isn’t going to happen, especially if you expect the Padres to take Harrison in the trade. It’s okay, you’re allowed to be wrong.
“He’s not ARod.”
Lol, what does that have to do with anything? No crap he’s not ARod. And James Shields isn’t Roger Clemens…
Shields is a proven, successful ML pitcher and if the White Sox feel they need a solid starter who can win 10 games the rest of the year (and keep them in 20 games) then he’s a good investment. However, if Chicago feels Anderson is going to be an all-star…a guy who will start for the Sox the next ten years at short–then by all means, don’t make the trade. Shields is a lot closer to Clemens than Anderson is to ARod. If you’re a GM and you’ think you’re close to grabbing the brass ring—better to go for the ring than put your hopes on an unknown 2-3-4 years down the line.
Posted the numbers and players but comment is awaiting approval. Looking at the numbers 24/55 from 03-13 were locks as successful 10-20 from 04-13, id have to research the 03 class, yielded 38/90. 1-5 yielded a 43.6% while 10-20 yielded a 42.2%. Thats a difference of 1.4% which considering 10-20 allows for more busts isnt that much of a difference to say f the season lets go for 1-5 considering the last 9 years from 04-13 yielded superstars at a similar clip as 1-5. In fact some years the 10-20 shred the 1-5 class.
Also, you’re way over valuing shields for some odd reason. Seriously shields, the rest of his contract which is 3 years, 9ish mill the padres get harrison who has 2 years left, 1 8-10 prospect, 2 18-20 they get out of a year of shields deal. Only reason harrison is there is for monetary reasons. You can take him out and give the padres nothing but prospects dependent on the amount they eat.
Will a trade happen? Dont know where shields will wind up. All the contenders could be suitors with varying degree of interest and have their own ok we will make a deal with x paramteres, y prospects, and z money involved. Phillies COULD use shields IF theyre contending for a wc. The whole shields to phillies hinges on that scenario. If they fall out of contention over the next couple months course there’s no reason to trade for him.
You clearly know nothing about baseball. Shields is owed $21m a year in 2016-2018 and then a $2m buyout in 2019. Harrison is owed almost as much in 2016 and 2017 but is a sunk cost while Shields is still a quality starter. Shields’ trade value is much greater than Harrison’s. The Phillies would have to include tons of prospects in that trade. They have already indicated that they are willing to eat salary in order to add prospects and the trade you are suggesting would be the opposite.
No one agrees with you that the Phillies are even in the conversation for Shields. And even if they were interested they wouldn’t try to dump Harrison in the deal, they would just take on most/all of Shields’ salary so they don’t have to give up as much prospect capital. They have just as much financial resources as any team except the Dodgers and Yankees.
big….more good work. yes, you miss the chance for an ARod, Junior, Harper, Bonds type of player. But you also miss out on some big busts that cost a lot of money.
Every single team in the league would happily take that risk for a chance at an ARod, Junior, Harper, Bonds type player. The benefits of getting someone like that FAR outweigh the costs on the busts.
Wow reading all the comments in this post has made me realize how Chicago fans can be very…feisty towards each other.
For me it is just people who make stuff up, I don’t care who you are a fan of. If facts show you are wrong, I’ll tell you you’re wrong. I like using facts in my arguments. Not blanket statements.
Shelby miller for James shields?
Would be interesting. But considering what they gave up for him, that would really sting.
Hopefully a change of scenery and fresh start with a team that shows strong interest will return him to form. May not get out of him what his contract is worth, but he should still have plenty left in the tank.
I know most experts on here don’t love the inning eating, sub 3.50 era types. But saber metrics aside, Shield can still be a great 3/4.