2016 Free Agent Power Rankings

Welcome to the last in-season addition of our 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  We’ve been moving these pieces around since February, and the list continues to change with several players surging.

These rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Even back in February, $200MM (sans deferred money) was getting tossed around in regard to Price.  The 30-year-old was traded to the Blue Jays on July 30th and his risen to the occasion, somehow pitching even better for his new team.  The goal is now clear: exceed the seven-year, $215MM extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers in January 2014.  That contract includes an opt-out that could allow Kershaw to begin a new contract with his age 31 campaign.  Since Price is already 30, agent Bo McKinnis may not need to push for such a clause.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s strong season has continued since we last checked in on August 6th.  Heyward gets on base, shows a touch of pop, and plays strong defense.  It’s a valuable package.  Since he turned 26 just last month, Heyward’s will be the rare free agent contract that includes mostly prime-age seasons.  An eight-year deal would only take him through his age 33 season.  As Yahoo’s Jeff Passan noted recently, an opt-out clause makes sense here.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton hit .266/.382/.539 in 152 plate appearances since we last checked in, putting his oblique and thumb injuries behind him.  Upton is one player where an opt-out clause seems especially valuable, because it still seems like he could take his game to another level.  He’s a 28-home run guy who could become a 35-40 type, and would benefit from the chance to re-enter the market after three seasons.  He could get a bigger deal at that point, since he recently turned 28.  That could work out for the team too — sign him to an eight-year deal this winter but only have to pay for age 28-30.

4.  Chris Davis.  Davis can’t be contained, with 14 home runs in 35 games since we last checked in.  He has 42 in all.  Davis is five months younger than Yoenis Cespedes, and I’m starting to think he has slightly more earning power.  It’s an interesting contrast.  Davis seems a better bet for additional 35+ homer seasons, yet his rough 2014 season is hard to completely write off.  Cespedes brings more defensive value, though his strong marks this year are out of the ordinary.  Davis strikes out more, but walks more too.  Both players will be vying for seven-year contracts with mid-$20MM salaries.

5.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes didn’t even crack my top ten in February, and now he’s ascended all the way up to fifth.  Even when the Tigers traded Cespedes to the Mets on July 31st, he didn’t seem a good bet to finish with 30 home runs.  Then he went and smacked 16 in 40 games for the Mets, and he now has an outside shot at 40 bombs.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s seven-year, $153MM deal from December 2013 is a good benchmark for Cespedes, who should get more.  Cespedes’ contract was modified in September to allow the Mets to have a shot at retaining him.

6.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke ranked eighth on this list in February, when a five-year deal in the low-$100MM range seemed reasonable.  Sitting on an MLB-best 1.61 ERA through 29 starts, it’s time to seriously consider a six-year contract.  That’s a scary proposition, since he’s already 31, but the sixth year maximizes his total even if he backs off on the average annual value.  Greinke should be able to get past the six-year, $155MM contract signed by Jon Lester last winter.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon returned from an eight-week layoff on September 1st, having recovered from a groin injury.  He says he feels 100%, and is now serving as the Royals’ leadoff hitter.  Since he turns 32 in February, a six-year deal seems like the limit.  I wonder if he can push his average annual value up to $25MM, netting $150MM in total.

8.  Johnny Cueto.  In our May power rankings, I gave consideration to putting Cueto ahead of Price, second overall.  A July 26th trade from the Reds to the Royals seemed beneficial to Cueto, who became ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Cueto began his Royals stint with a 1.80 ERA over 30 innings, but since then, the wheels have come off.  He’s allowed 28 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings, including 48 hits of which eight left the park.  His ERA has risen a full run in that time, from 2.46 to 3.47.  Perhaps something is wrong physically; you may recall Cueto went 13 days between starts this summer due to a sore elbow.

This story isn’t complete yet.  Cueto has three regular season starts left, and the Royals are going to the Division Series.  Still, Cueto’s last five starts probably took a seven-year contract off the table, and now I’m wondering whether he’ll match Lester.

9.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has a 2.66 ERA in seven starts since we last checked in, in what’s become another typically strong season from the 29-year-old righty.  He seems on track to become the first Tommy John survivor to reach $100MM, and may actually pass $130MM on a six-year deal.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake’s hold on this spot has grown more tenuous, as the righty spent a few weeks on the DL with a hamstring injury.  Leake still has a shot at a five-year deal, as he doesn’t turn 28 until November.

Ian Desmond’s season has been all over the map: he was decent in May, very good in August, and lousy otherwise.  There’s no real trend except that it’s his worst season since 2011 despite 17 home runs and counting.  I imagine some kind of four-year deal is in order, but this one is hard to peg.

Ben Zobrist is finishing strong, hitting .323/.398/.516 since joining the Royals in a July 28th trade.  Since he turns 35 in May, a four-year deal will be the limit.  Even that will be risky – it’s not like Victor Martinez’s contract is looking good.

The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, and many players’ free agent prospects were affected.  So far, the following free agents are among those no longer eligible for a qualifying offer due to a trade: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Gerardo Parra, and Dan Haren.  Yoenis Cespedes was already ineligible for a QO.

As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  David Price.  Price landed with the Blue Jays last week in a blockbuster trade, and has ascended to the top spot in these rankings.  His 2.45 ERA ranks fourth in the American League, and agent Bo McKinnis will have a case to exceed Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM deal from last offseason.  The present-day value of that deal was reported to be under $192MM due to deferred money.  Price represents a true ace at the top of his game, entering his age 30 season.  He might be the only free agent to top $200MM this winter.

2.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward’s last 1500 plate appearances have established that he’s good for about 15 home runs per year.  He adds value in a lot of different ways, though, and a more analytical team might be more inclined to appreciate and pay for that.  While he might not be better than all the players listed below him, keep in mind Heyward turns 26 years old on Sunday.  Because of his age, Heyward is the player on this list with the best shot at an eight-year contract, which could still push him into the $180MM range.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton is the other free agent outfielder who figures to command a premium partly because of his youth.  Still, he’s hitting .189/.275/.311 since June, and he will require draft pick forfeiture unless the Padres trade him this month.  Upton has been hampered by oblique and thumb injuries since July 19th, and his contract year has not gone as planned.  He still may approach 30 home runs, though, and may be able to get a seven-year deal.

4.  Johnny Cueto.  As expected, Cueto was traded, and now he’ll try to lead the Royals to a championship.  Cueto’s ace-level talent is undeniable, but with a few blips on his health record, can he push into seven-year deal territory?  A seventh year could result in Cueto getting this winter’s second-biggest contract.  A strong finish will go a long way.

5.  Zack Greinke.  Since we last checked in on June 25th, Greinke has given up four earned runs.  He leads all of baseball with a 1.41 ERA, and no one else is under 2.00.  Greinke’s timing is fantastic, and even though he turns 32 in October, a six-year deal is looking more and more plausible.  Opting out of the three years and $71MM remaining on his Dodgers contract seems a mere formality.

6.  Yoenis Cespedes.  The Mets made a trade deadline splash by acquiring Cespedes.  He may threaten his career-high of 26 home runs, and he turns 30 in October.  With Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, there is precedent for Cespedes to get a seven-year deal.  Though he’s known for his power, Cespedes’ agent could try to push him as an elite defender as well based on his metrics this year.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon went down on July 8th with a groin injury, but he’s on the road to recovery.  I don’t believe the injury will affect his value much.  However, as a player who turns 32 in February, he seems limited to a six-year deal.  Given his strong on-base percentage and defense, there will be teams with Gordon atop their free agent outfielder rankings.

8.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has been solid, with a 3.54 ERA in 22 starts.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, and for the first time it looks like he’ll allow more than a hit per inning in a full season.  He’ll still be a great addition for a team with a strong defense.  The question is whether a team will commit a sixth year.

9.  Chris Davis.  Davis has bounced back from 2014 and has a reasonable shot at hitting 40 home runs this year.  Davis has 28 home runs now, with Upton, Cespedes, and Marlon Byrd next among free agents at 18.  Davis isn’t showing a platoon split in 2015, and he doesn’t turn 30 until March.  He’s again starting to look like a player who could exceed $100MM.

10.  Mike Leake.  Leake is a new entrant on this list.  Just 28 in November, Leake has a 2.61 ERA since June.  With the trade to the Giants, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.  Leake is a durable, young mid-rotation arm, and I’m starting to wonder if he can snag a five-year deal in free agency.  For now, his durability holds off Scott Kazmir in terms of earning power.

Kazmir leads the American League in ERA right now, and won’t be getting a qualifying offer.  The southpaw, 32 in January, could find his way into our top ten if his success continues and his health holds up.  Still, it’s hard to crack the list without an expectation of a five-year deal, and I can’t picture that for Kazmir right now.

Jeff Samardzija, once seen as the list’s most likely trade candidate, has fallen out of our top ten.  His results continue to be middling for the White Sox, and now a qualifying offer seems likely.  Shark remains a durable, quality arm, but he might not be a lock for five years.

Nationals’ shortstop Ian Desmond also drops off the list.  His struggles have continued, and he may prefer to try to rebuild value with a one-year deal.  Those haven’t been en vogue lately, but can you picture any team giving Desmond four-plus years at a decent salary?

Other impending free agents to watch include Matt Wieters, Ben Zobrist, Yovani Gallardo, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mat Latos.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

We’re a quarter of the way through the 2015 MLB season, and there’s been significant movement in free agent stocks.  It’s time for a new installment of the 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.

As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  Justin Upton.  San Diego agrees with Upton, who is on pace for 40 home runs this season.  He could surpass his career high of 31 right around his 28th birthday, which is in late August.  Oddly, the Padres left fielder has done all his damage so far at Petco Park.  Upton will be 3-4 years younger than Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols were when they reached free agency, and he has a chance to top their $240MM contracts.

2.  David Price.  Price’s ERA at last check-in was 0.40, so it had nowhere to go but up.  He’s now at a more mortal 3.40, 22nd among American League qualifiers.  It’s probably just an eight-start blip on the radar, but Price’s strikeout and groundball rates are down this year and he’s allowed more than a hit per inning.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Is Cueto a better pitcher than Price right now?  I’m considering the possibility more seriously.  Cueto, who is six months younger than Price, leads all of baseball with 7.23 innings per start.  Last year, only Price bettered Cueto’s regular season total of 243 2/3 frames.  Cueto is more than a workhorse, though, as he has a 3.03 ERA on the season.  He stands a decent chance of being traded by the Reds this summer, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

4.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward is settling in with the Cardinals, batting .273/.343/.398 since we last checked in.  That’s in line with his last couple of seasons, but another 10-15 home run campaign isn’t going to get him a monster contract.  Just 26 in August, Heyward’s youth and defensive value should still result in a deal worth well over $100MM.

5.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has shined in the five starts since our last update, bringing his ERA down to 3.66.  His skills in this quarter season have faded considerably from last year, though, as his 15.2% strikeout rate would represent a career worst.  Again: it’s just eight starts.  But a good $50MM hangs in the balance for Zimmermann.

6.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon had December wrist surgery, but his power production seems fine this year.  He’s slugging .472 since we last checked in.  Gordon has been hit by a pitch an AL-best nine times, pushing his OBP up to .378.  Whatever age-based gap there might be between Gordon and Heyward, Gordon is closing it with a five-plus wins above replacement pace.

7.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke jumps up two spots this month, as he’s third in the game with a 1.52 ERA.  A third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA season should help his earning power, though he owes much of his success this year to an unsustainable .217 batting average on balls in play.  It’s a fantastic start to the season regardless.  Zimmermann has two and a half years of age on Greinke, but Greinke is the better pitcher right now.

8.  Ian Desmond.  There’s been nothing redeeming about Desmond’s contract year, which has been replacement level so far.  This was a guy in the running for the best shortstop in baseball from 2012-14, but in 2015 his numbers are way down.  He’s been hitting like Jean Segura, and he’s on pace for baseball’s first 40-error season since Jose Offerman in 1992.  Desmond will still do fine financially, as he faces little competition on the shortstop market.

9.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes’ biggest problem has been readily apparent in 2015, as his 3.1% walk rate is tenth-worst among qualified hitters.  That has contributed to a .290 OBP.  I think Cespedes’ power still makes him a top-75 hitter in MLB, but he hasn’t been in the last calendar year.

10.  Jeff Samardzija.  Little has gone right in Samardzija’s eight starts for the White Sox.  He’s whiffed only 17% of batters, and his groundball rate has taken a tumble.  His skills back up a 4.00+ ERA.  The 30-year-old righty is as good a bet as anyone on this list to be traded this summer.  If Samardzija continues to struggle, he could be out of the top ten next month.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler is pushing for a spot on this list, with a .269/.352/.428 line and improved defense.  He doesn’t turn 30 until March, but has to be penalized for an injury history that hasn’t allowed him to play in 120+ games since 2012.  Howie Kendrick, Denard Span, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, and ageless hurlers Aaron Harang and A.J. Burnett are among the other free agents off to strong starts.

Most teams are about 9% through their season at this point, and it’s time for our first midseason update of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  These players project to reach free agency after this season.

As a reminder, these rankings represent the earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  Justin Upton.  Upton, 27, is off to a fine start for the second place Padres.  Not coincidentally, the Friars are averaging more than 5.3 runs per game in the early going, tops in the National League.  Nothing seems to be cooking on the extension front, and a free agent contract worth $250MM or more could be in play this winter.

2.  David Price.  Price jumps up a spot after allowing just one earned run in his first 22 1/3 innings.  Before that, some low-level extension discussions with the Tigers occurred in late March.  Price is willing to continue talking contract into the season and seems to have a number in mind that could result in a fairly quick deal if the Tigers reach it.  Logically, that number figures to be in the $200MM range.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto moves up a spot as well after a trio of seven-inning outings.  As he moves further from his 2013 shoulder strain, Cueto moves closer to Price in earning power.  His Reds are hanging in with a .500 record, though a midseason trade at least seems viable.  A deadline deal would make Cueto ineligible for a qualifying offer, though at ace prices the loss of a draft pick is a secondary concern for suitors.

4.  Jason Heyward.  It’s not fair to bump Heyward down two spots because of 53 lousy plate appearances, but I feel that if the season ended today, Price and Cueto would earn bigger contracts.  Batting second in the order for the Cardinals, Heyward is at .192/.208/.327 on the young season.

5.  Ian Desmond.  On the plus side, Desmond has cut his strikeout rate considerably in his first 14 games, an 18% rate that would represent a full-season career best.  On the other hand, Desmond has made eight errors in his first 125 1/3 innings in the field.  Surely that pace will lessen, but he still has a good shot at 30 on the season.  Even with today’s advanced fielding metrics, 30 errors could be hard for a team owner to ignore if Desmond’s price tag exceeds $150MM.

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann’s early numbers are off after an April 13th Fenway Park drubbing, and his velocity is down a few ticks from April of last year.  Still, every pitcher is allowed the occasional clunker, and Zimmermann has about 29 starts left to go.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Royals manager Ned Yost intends to exercise extra caution with Gordon in at least the season’s first month due to his December wrist surgery.  11 games don’t tell us much, but it will be worth monitoring whether the wrist saps Gordon’s power at all this year.

8.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes is off to a strong start, and seems capable of piling up a huge RBI total batting fifth or sixth in the Tigers’ potent lineup.  He is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won’t turn 30 until October, and seems a candidate to move several more spots up this list.

9.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke has three quality starts in three tries this year, and not much has changed with his status.  I still expect him to opt out of his remaining three years and $71MM after the season.

10.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija’s White Sox debut in Kansas City was a forgettable outing, but he has now turned in consecutive gems.  He and Greinke have each fallen a spot only because of Cespedes’ earning power.

In news that was music to the ears of Samardzija, Greinke, Zimmermann, and others, the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension earlier this month.  The contract covers his age 27-30 seasons.  Though part of the calculus is Porcello’s youth and the deal being shortened to four years, if he’s worth $20.625MM per season, that bodes well for next winter’s crop of free agent hurlers.

Cueto leads all 2016 free agents with 0.8 wins above replacement early on, though the Dodgers’ Howie Kendrick and the Yankees’ Chris Young have matched him.  Young’s rate stats this year will be skewed, however, if he continues getting more than 40% of his plate appearances against southpaws.