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2016-17 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a pair of World Series appearances in 2014-15, the 2016 Royals fell shy of a postseason berth and now face considerable payroll questions as the core of their championship-winning roster stands one year from free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ian Kennedy, RHP: $62.5MM through 2020 (can opt out of contract after 2017)
  • Alex Gordon, LF: $60MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 mutual option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $46.5MM through 2021
  • Yordano Ventura, RHP: $20.25MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Joakim Soria, RHP: $18MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 mutual option)
  • Lorenzo Cain, CF: $11MM through 2017
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B; $8.7MM through 2017
  • Jason Vargas, LHP: $8MM through 2017
  • Chris Young, RHP: $7.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)
  • Mike Minor, LHP: $5.25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Kendrys Morales, DH/1B: $11MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Wade Davis, RHP: $10MM club option ($2.5MM buyout)
  • Edinson Volquez, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)
  • Kris Medlen, RHP: $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
  • Luke Hochevar, RHP: $7MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Alcides Escobar, SS: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Predictions: Team exercises option on Morales, but Morales declines; team exercises option on Davis; team declines option on Volquez; team declines option on Medlen; team declines option on Hochevar; team exercises option on Escobar

Other Financial Commitments

  • Omar Infante, 2B: $10MM through 2017 (was released in 2016)

Free Agents

Royals Depth Chart; Royals Payroll Information

The Royals’ back-to-back World Series appearances revitalized Kansas City baseball, but as is often the case, success proved difficult to sustain. With an 81-81 finish on the season and players like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Wade Davis and Alcides Escobar all set to hit free agency following the 2017 season, the Royals have a plethora of questions on their hands.

First and foremost is whether the team can afford to make any significant additions this winter. General manager Dayton Moore flatly said that his expectation was that the team’s payroll would “regress” in 2017 after opening the 2016 campaign with a franchise-record mark of nearly $132MM. Meanwhile, team owner David Glass was less definitive when asked about reducing payroll, somewhat nebulously suggesting that it’s impossible to know where the 2017 payroll will sit because no one yet knows what opportunities will be presented in the coming offseason. As noted in the above-linked payroll breakdown at Roster Resource, though, the Royals already project to have a $139MM payroll to open next season. The notion of adding any significant pieces is somewhat difficult to anticipate, then, unless Glass is comfortable with the ledger rising into the $140MMs and possibly the $150MMs.

As such, the question becomes one of whether the Royals will actually subtract some pieces from the 2016 roster. Davis’ name was mentioned frequently in July before a forearm strain shelved him through the non-waiver trade deadline, and Kansas City has reportedly already received some early interest in its closer. Late-inning relief help is one of the few commodities that is in relatively large supply this winter — Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are all free agents, and the market also bears some quality setup options as well — but Davis’ contractual status is likely an attractive feature. Many teams will be reluctant to pay the record-breaking prices that the top names will command. Acquiring Davis would yield a premium relief arm with only a one-year, $10MM commitment required. Of the core pieces that could potentially leave after the 2017 season, Davis arguably has the most trade appeal if Moore and his staff do shed some big league talent/payroll.

Wade Davis

Certainly, teams would have interest in Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer and Escobar, but there are concerns across the board with that quartet. Cain missed more than two months of the season and ended the year on the shelf with a wrist strain. Moustakas didn’t play the final four months due to a torn ACL. Hosmer’s productivity tanked in the second half, and he’s projected to earn a hefty $13.3MM next year. Escobar continued to impress with the glove and on the bases, but he’s a defense-first player with no power and sub-.300 OBP skills. Looking elsewhere, Ian Kennedy had a strong finish but is on a contract that is teeming with downside (he can opt out after the 2017 season if he performs well but would be owed a total of $62.5MM over the next four years if he struggles and forgoes that opportunity). Jason Vargas’ $8MM salary is fairly manageable, but he missed the majority of 2016 recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Those names could all come up in trade talks this winter, but it’s also important to note that a full-on fire sale doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the Royals. After all, improved performance from Alex Gordon and returns to health for any combination of Cain, Davis, Moustakas and Vargas would represent an immediate means of improvement in Kansas City. And with the Tigers suggesting that they’ll trim payroll while the White Sox and Twins continue to struggle to put contending teams on the field, there’s certainly reason for Moore and his staff to believe that this core is capable of a final push for the division in 2017. If it doesn’t go as planned, plenty of those names would make appealing deadline chips, after all.

On that note, there’s no more obvious area of need for the 2017 Royals than in the rotation. Breakout star Danny Duffy figures to lead that group, and he’ll be joined by Yordano Ventura, Kennedy, Vargas and one of Chris Young, Mike Minor or sophomore Matt Strahm, who wowed in the bullpen but is viewed as a starter in the long haul. Dillon Gee, too, could factor into the mix, but he’s coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and could be a non-tender candidate.

Unfortunately for the Royals, they’re faced with the same dilemma that is facing most other clubs; everyone needs starting pitching, but the free-agent market is relatively barren. Despite that fact, Kansas City reportedly plans to opt against investing an additional $7MM into Edinson Volquez and will elect a $3MM buyout over exercising his $10MM option. That may indicate that the team doesn’t plan to spend big money on starting pitching, so minor league deals or lower-cost targets like Tommy Milone, Bud Norris or Jhoulys Chacin could be in order. Alternatively, the Royals could look to sign a pitcher to a two-year pact but heavily backload the deal so as to only commit a few million in 2017 while saving the bulk of the payout for the 2018 season, when the books clear up.

The other half of the pitching staff will need some work, too — especially if the Royals do ultimately find an offer for Davis that is to their liking. Kelvin Herrera is a dominant late-inning arm, but Joakim Soria’s return to the team has been somewhat of a flop so far. Strahm could reprise his role if the Royals feel they have ample rotation depth, and the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd recently highlighted fast-rising prospect Josh Staumont as a potential midseason factor from the right side. Brian Flynn proved a useful southpaw (2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings), but the Royals are going to need to find some arms either within their system or late in the offseason. From Kansas City’s vantage point, there’s merit to the idea of waiting out the market and snatching up one or even two of the middle relievers/setup men that fall through the cracks while waiting for bigger deals that never materialize. It’s also worth noting that there’s reportedly been mutual interest between the Royals and righty Peter Moylan about a new contract, so he could return on a one-year deal.

Looking around the diamond, the Royals are more set. Salvador Perez remains one of the best catchers in baseball, Hosmer is locked in at first base despite his second-half collapse, Moustakas will return to the hot corner and Escobar is penciled in at shortstop (once his option is exercised). Gordon will hope for better results at the plate in the second season of his now-troublesome-looking four-year, $72MM deal, and Cain will continue to hold down the fort in center field (though there’s been some talk of occasional time in right to help keep his hamstring healthier). With Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando representing options for the remaining outfield spot, the Royals don’t necessarily need to look there, although an upgrade to the right-handed side of the platoon wouldn’t hurt. Orlando is one baseball’s least disciplined hitters and owes his solid batting line almost entirely to a .380 BABIP that he can’t be expected to repeat. Dyson, meanwhile, doesn’t hit much but is a defensive wizard and provides huge value on the bases, which led to 3.1 rWAR and fWAR. If he can maintain 2016’s K/BB improvements, he’s a solid and affordable option.

Second base and DH are the other two potential spots to add some talent, but the Royals do have options at second in Christian Colon, Whit Merrifield and Raul Mondesi Jr. (though the latter of that group seems likely to head to Triple-A for continued work at shortstop so he can prepare to take over for Escobar at shortstop in 2018). Like Orlando, Merrifield got by with some significant BABIP fortune (.361) but showed little plate discipline and virtually no power. Colon’s glove can handle the job, but his bat looked an awful lot like that of Omar Infante last season, whom the Royals released midway through his ill-fated four-year deal. Kansas City would be a nice fit for Chase Utley on a one-year deal, but the Royals could also hope to snatch a veteran second baseman late in the winter on a minor league deal or a lower-cost one-year pact.

As for the DH slot, the first question facing the Royals will be whether to tender a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales. Given the financial uncertainties surrounding the roster, that seems unlikely, as adding a $17.2MM commitment for a strict DH would shoot the team’s estimated 2017 payroll to nearly $160MM. The free-agent market does feature a number of somewhat redundant first base/DH types; Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison and even Ryan Howard are all available, and it’s unlikely that they’ll all find lucrative deals. Grabbing one of those players on an affordable one-year pact makes some sense, but the DH spot could simply be kept open to help Moustakas and others get some days off from fielding. That would not only help to keep them healthier and also give the Royals a means by which Cheslor Cuthbert could get into the lineup, though the 24-year-old did fade down the stretch.

Ultimately, the Royals are in a somewhat unenviable spot — stuck in the middle between contention and a need to rebuild. They probably feel this is their last shot at contending with this core, but there are myriad holes throughout the lineup and few ways to patch them without sending payroll soaring into uncharted and unsustainable territory. The Royals reportedly operated at a loss this season, so tacking on tens of millions more to the payroll isn’t a sound business decision. But, their means of plugging holes with homegrown talent took a hit when they used a solid-but-not-overly-deep farm system to acquire Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist in 2015. Those trades subtracted four pitchers — Sean Manaea, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb — that could otherwise be immediate rotation options for a club that now finds itself with an unreliable mix of starters. You’ll never hear the Royals or their fans complain about it, of course, as the 2015 World Series outweighs any long-term troubles for the franchise. Nonetheless, a poor start to the 2017 season could be the precursor for a summer sale, and even if the Royals are able to contend in the AL Central next year, this is a franchise that is destined for a significant amount of turnover beginning next winter, at the latest, when its core hits the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some key position players hitting free agency and a still-unsettled rotation, the Orioles are looking at another busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

It’s probably safe to assume that the Orioles aren’t going to drop another $243MM on free agents this offseason.  Last winter’s club-record splurge may have been more or less a one-time-only expenditure, as most of that spending went towards keeping a cornerstone piece (Chris Davis) in the fold.

That being said, it would be unusual for owner Peter Angelos to close the wallet altogether just a year later, especially since the O’s made it back to the postseason (albeit just as far as the wild card game).  With a number of roster holes that need to be addressed, executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette will likely need some cash to again dip into the free agent market, or be creative on the trade front given the Orioles’ lack of attractive minor league trade depth.

The O’s have just under $96MM committed to only eight players for 2017, plus a projected $50.1MM to their ten-player arbitration class.  Even if you shave off the salaries of the possible non-tenders, so Baltimore is looking at over $141MM (almost the size of its 2016 Opening Day payroll) for 15 players.  In short, the Orioles will surely set a new franchise high for payroll, unless they free up some money in trades.

Given the near-historic weakness of this year’s free agent pitching market, it’s not out of the question that the O’s could shop Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo or Wade Miley.  All three starters are under contract only through 2017, so it’s possible another club could take a one-year (or longer, since Gallardo and Miley are under club options for 2018) flier on any of the pitchers.

Of course, Baltimore wouldn’t be selling high on any of the three since Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo are all coming off rough seasons.  Jimenez was briefly removed from the rotation in August but pitched quite well down the stretch once he got his starting job back.  Miley’s advanced metrics hint that he pitched better in his 11 starts as an Oriole than his 6.17 ERA would indicate, though he is still waiting on that breakout season.  Gallardo’s first year in Baltimore was essentially a disaster, punctuated by two trips to the DL, a 5.42 ERA and just 0.6 fWAR over 118 innings.

Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman are locked in the top two rotation spots, so it seems like the O’s would have to move one of their other three veterans to create room for Dylan Bundy.  Returning after missing three full MLB seasons to injury, Bundy worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2016 but showed glimpses of his potential when shifted to the rotation later in the year.  Bundy’s health history could keep him on an innings limit, but the Orioles are going to give their former first-rounder every chance to stick in the rotation.  Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo could be fighting amongst themselves for the last two starting jobs, with the loser going to the bullpen (though none are seen as ideal candidates to do so) or perhaps to another team in a trade.

Then again, dealing a starter may not be a great idea for a team that is itself looking for pitching upgrades.  Could the Orioles look into adding a free agent pitcher?  It isn’t a great winter to be looking for starters, so barring a trade, it’s more probable that Baltimore hangs onto its own mid-tier rotation options rather than sign another one.  That said, the O’s waited until pretty late into the offseason to sign both Jimenez and Gallardo, as both pitchers saw their markets hampered by the qualifying offer.  That tactic probably won’t work this winter (Jeremy Hellickson is likely to be the only free agent starter who receives a qualifying offer), though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Duquette check in on any notable starters still lingering on the market in February.

The other end of the pitching equation has far fewer issues, as the Orioles fielded one of the league’s best bullpens.  Even with longtime setup man Darren O’Day battling injuries for much of the year, the relief corps still posted excellent numbers thanks to workhorses Brad Brach and Mychal Givens, and the all-timer of a season delivered by closer Zach Britton.

With Britton’s value at an all-time high and the closer projected for a hefty $11.4MM arbitration salary, Britton himself recently discussed the possibility that the O’s could trade him as they did ex-closer Jim Johnson when Johnson’s price tag got too high.  With so many other star relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon) available in free agency and the Royals potentially considering a Wade Davis trade, the closing market is already pretty crowded this winter.  On the other hand, big spenders like the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Giants, Rangers and Yankees will all be looking for bullpen upgrades and at least some of those teams will be left empty-handed in the free agent frenzy and the Davis sweepstakes.

The issue with trading Britton, of course, is that the O’s would be weakening their clearest strength.  The bullpen’s dominance helped account for a lot of flaws around the roster — the middling rotation, a below-average defense and even a lineup that relied too much on the long ball.  Baltimore hit a league-best 253 homers last season but managed just a .317 OBP.  While an above-average club on the basepaths as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, the Orioles combined for just 19 steals in 2016, easily the fewest of any team and fewer than 28 individual players.

The infield core of Davis, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy and superstar Manny Machado will remain intact, and long-time franchise stalwart Adam Jones will return in center field, even if his glovework in center took a big step backwards.  Hyun Soo Kim went from looking overmatched in Spring Training to delivering a very solid first season in the majors, but he didn’t record a hit in just 22 plate appearances against southpaws. He will return as the lefty-swinging side of a platoon in either left field or potentially designated hitter.  (Rookies Trey Mancini and Christian Walker are both right-handed bats that could platoon with Kim at DH, and Walker is a possible option in left as well.)

That leaves lots of room around the diamond for the Orioles to add speed, athleticism and better all-around batting.  If the O’s would still prefer pure power over these attributes, however, they could look to re-sign Mark Trumbo.  The slugger hit .256/.316/.533 with a league-high 47 homers over 667 plate appearances, though aside from all this thump, Trumbo brought little else in average, OBP or defensive value.  He also slumped badly in the second half and had unusual splits (.932 OPS against right-handers, .608 OPS against lefties) for a right-handed batter whose numbers against all pitchers had been pretty even entering 2016.

Trumbo’s big power year will ensure that the O’s issue him a qualifying offer, so the team will be in line for a first-round draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.  It’s hard to let 47 homers walk out the door, though on a team with so much pop already on the roster, Trumbo seems somewhat expendable.  The O’s could collect a much-needed draft pick and replace Trumbo with a more well-rounded player in right field.

Of the other Oriole free agents, Steve Pearce or Nolan Reimold could be fits as platoon partners for Kim, with Pearce potentially serving as an everyday option given how well he has hit both lefties and righties in two of the last three seasons.  Pearce isn’t a defensive whiz at any position but he is versatile, seeing time at first, second, third, left and right with the Rays and Orioles in 2016.  Pearce is liable to receive a lot of free agent attention despite the fact that his recovery from forearm surgery could stretch into Spring Training, though one could assume that his familiarity with Baltimore could give the O’s something of an edge over most other teams. Late-season addition Michael Bourn impressed the team and is open to a return, though that would likely mean setting up another platoon situation in right field.

Extension talks with Pedro Alvarez went nowhere in September, so while a reunion could still occur, Alvarez is another power-only player that the O’s may feel comfortable letting go — particularly since he, too, is mostly limited to facing right-handed pitching. If both Alvarez and Trumbo depart, the Orioles simply look to obtain the next Alvarez and Trumbo — players with big power and whose defensive shortcomings could be masked in the DH role.  Between Alvarez, Trumbo and Nelson Cruz, the O’s have had great success in recent years in acquiring productive sluggers at relatively low prices.

With both corner spots and the DH spot essentially open aside from Kim, the Orioles have lots of options in a free agent market deep in all three areas.  They could sign a pure platooner like Rajai Davis (who also brings sorely-needed base-stealing ability) to pair with Kim in left, then go after an everyday right fielder like longtime division rival Jose Bautista.  Signing a versatile player such as Ian Desmond could check off a number of boxes — he could be shifted to right field for his regular position, while occasionally spelling Jones in center or Hardy at shortstop.

As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles aren’t likely to break the bank in free agency again, but perhaps they could afford to sign one big-ticket player and one mid-range free agent to fill some of these holes.  Adding Desmond, Bautista or other free agents who reject qualifying offers would require the Orioles to surrender their first-round pick.  Giving up what is currently the 23rd overall pick might not be a big concern since Baltimore could be getting two compensatory picks back for their own QO free agents in Trumbo and Matt Wieters.

Of course, the Orioles probably thought they had an extra pick coming their way last year before Wieters surprised many by actually accepting his one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer.  Wieters’ attempt at boosting his stock with a big platform year in 2016 didn’t entirely work out, as he managed to stay healthy but hit only .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers over 464 PA.  Wieters may still be in line for a solid multi-year deal as the top free agent catcher available in the wake of Wilson Ramos’ knee surgery, or he could again choose to stay in a familiar spot and accept a large (if one-year) payday in the hopes that 2017 will be that long-desired platform year.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently outlined the pros and cons of issuing another QO to Wieters, as the Orioles have to weigh the risk of paying $17.2MM for a catcher who looked pretty average (or even on the decline) last season against the benefit of adding a draft pick if Wieters rejects the qualifying offer and departs.  This one decision will have a big impact on the rest of Baltimore’s offseason moves; the club will have much less to spend on other needs if $17.2MM in payroll space is being used on Wieters.

If Wieters does leave, the Orioles will have a big vacancy to fill behind the plate.  Caleb Joseph was tentatively set to be the 2016 starter before Wieters accepted the QO, though Joseph is no longer a regular option following a desultory season.  Joseph hit a measly .174/.216/.197, recording such astonishing offensive lows as a 6 wRC+ and zero RBI over his 141 PA.  At the very least, Joseph did provide good framing and defensive numbers, so he’s still in the mix as the backup.

Top catching prospect Chance Sisco may be ready to make his big league debut in 2017, though he’s still quite young (Sisco turns 22 in February) and still something of a defensive question mark.  There’s no guarantee the O’s can count on Sisco even for Opening Day 2018, so they could need more than a one-year stopgap to start ahead of Joseph.  The O’s could focus solely on defense by signing someone like Jason Castro, essentially punting on offense from the catcher’s spot since the rest of the lineup is so strong.  Former Oriole Nick Hundley is another possibility, though Hundley is a defensive liability.

Longtime utilityman Ryan Flaherty could be non-tendered despite a pretty modest $1.7MM projected arbitration salary, as the O’s could probably re-sign Flaherty at a lower price.  If Flaherty isn’t brought back, the Orioles will need a new backup infielder, though Machado’s ability to play both third and short gives them some flexibility.

Speaking of Machado, it seems likely that Duquette will again broach the idea of an extension with the 24-year-old this offseason.  Duquette was rather circumspect when discussing extension negotiation plans with Machado, Tillman, Britton or Schoop, though of that group, there’s little question that locking up Machado is Baltimore’s biggest long-term priority.  It would likely take well over $250MM to make a Machado extension happen given his age and spectacular track record, and that kind of expenditure could obviously impact how much the Orioles plan to spend on new talent this offseason.  The O’s have quite a bit of future payroll flexibility, however, as Davis and O’Day are the only players committed money beyond the 2018 season.  Like most extensions, a Machado deal may not occur or begin to be negotiated until after the rest of the offseason business is done, so we may have to wait until Spring Training for more news on the that front.

Beyond just helping to score a wild card berth, the Orioles’ spending spree of a year ago showed that Angelos is again ready to pay top dollar to retain and obtain talent.  Baltimore doesn’t have as many key pieces hitting free agency this winter as it did in 2015, so this offseason’s most notable moves could consist of bringing some new faces to Camden Yards.  The Orioles’ mixture of innings-eating starting pitching, sluggers and great bullpen work only got them so far in 2016, so some further roster maneuvering is still needed to keep the O’s in the playoff hunt.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Having amassed fewer than 70 wins both in 2015 and this season, the Athletics are mired in their worst stretch since the late 1970s. While the 2016 A’s picked up one more victory than last year’s version (69 to 68), their run differential actually declined by 73. Only two other American League teams totaled fewer wins than the A’s (who finished last in the AL West) and just one team had a worse run differential. With a roster devoid of marquee talent, executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst are unlikely to transform the low-payroll A’s into playoff contenders by next season. However, shrewd offseason moves combined with progression from Oakland’s bevy of young players and better health (the A’s used the disabled list a club-record 27 times this year) would nudge the team closer to respectability in 2017.
Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Oakland Athletics Depth Chart; Oakland Athletics Payroll Information

While the A’s didn’t hit or pitch well this year, their defense and baserunning were even more egregious. Those two elements played the largest roles in Oakland’s last-place finish in position player fWAR (4.1), which was significantly worse than 29th-ranked Atlanta’s total (10.0). In the field, the A’s placed 30th in Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, and they were third from the bottom at turning ground balls into outs (via StatCorner). That was particularly damaging to a pitching staff that had the majors’ ninth-highest grounder rate.

On the base paths, the A’s came in 28th in FanGraphs’ UBR metric and 26th in steals. Outfielders Billy Burns, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick, all of whom were dealt during the summer, combined for more than half (26) of the team’s 50 stolen bases. Thanks in part to those departures, the A’s are going to have to address their outfield, where questions abound.

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Although the Mariners extended their major league-worst playoff drought to 15 years in 2016, it was still an encouraging campaign for the club. In the Mariners’ first year under general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais, they finished seventh in the American League in winning percentage (.531, 86-76) and a more impressive fourth in run differential (plus-61). Seattle’s record was good enough to keep the team in the wild-race race until the penultimate day of the season, though merely staying in the hunt doesn’t suffice. With that in mind, Dipoto will spend the next several months trying to position the roster to get over the hump in 2017 and put the Mariners in the postseason for the first time since their historic 116-win 2001 campaign.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $168MM through 2023
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $85MM through 2021 ($15MM club option for 2022)
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $79MM through 2019 ($1MM conditional club option for 2020)
  • Nelson Cruz, DH/RF: $32MM through 2018
  • Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $15MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2018; $1MM buyout; option will vest at $15MM if Iwakuma throws 324 combined innings between 2016-17 and doesn’t end ’17 season with unspecified injury)
  • Steve Cishek, RP: $6MM through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information

Earlier in the Mariners’ lengthy skid, there were seasons in which woeful offensive production torpedoed their chances of competing. That wasn’t the case in 2016, however, as the Mariners eclipsed the 700-run plateau (768) for the first time since 2007. All told, Seattle crossed home plate more than 23 of the majors’ other 29 teams and finished second only to Boston’s outstanding offense in wRC+ (107).

The Mariners’ main offensive threats – second baseman Robinson Cano, designated hitter Nelson Cruz and third baseman Kyle Seager – will be back next year, but there are questions about some of the team’s complementary pieces. Ideally for the Mariners, they’ll upgrade their position player group during the offseason with better defenders and baserunners who can also contribute offensively. Defensively, this year’s Mariners ranked 23rd in both Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-24.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (minus-22). On the base paths, they placed 24th in steals (56) and toward the bottom in UBR (23rd) and BsR (26th) – two of FanGraphs’ metrics.

While shortstop Ketel Marte was one of the Mariners’ best baserunners this season, he weighed the club down in other facets and could head to Triple-A Tacoma for further development next year. Seattle already tried to replace Marte over the summer with the Reds’ Zack Cozart, but the teams ran out of time to reach a deal before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old with one season left on his contract, the rebuilding Reds could shop Cozart again over the winter. Given the dearth of free agent shortstops on the upcoming market, the Mariners renewing their previous pursuit of Cozart seems like a no-brainer. Not only has Cozart has been a terrific defender since breaking in as a full-time major leaguer in 2012, but his most recent production indicates he’d provide the Mariners another respectable bat. Dating back to last season, Cozart has slashed .254/.308/.435 with 25 home runs in 722 plate appearances. In nearly the same amount of PAs (713), Marte has hit .267/.309/.349 with three homers.

If the Mariners acquire Cozart, he’d team with Cano and Seager to comprise the majority of their infield next season. Elsewhere, there’s no established option at first base, where midseason acquisition Dan Vogelbach could pick up the lion’s share of playing time as a left-handed hitter. The 23-year-old has more than held his own against minor league pitching, and he wouldn’t have a difficult act to follow in soon-to-be free agent Adam Lind (.239/.286/.431 in 2016).

Despite his shortcomings as a baserunner and defender, the big-bodied Vogelbach represents the Mariners’ best in-house option to take the reins at first. If that happens, platooning Vogelbach with a capable right-handed hitter would make sense. The Mariners have an impending free agent who fits the bill in Dae-ho Lee. In his first year in the majors, the longtime star in Korea and Japan slashed an above-average .261/.329/.446 with eight long balls in 157 PAs against southpaws. The 34-year-old Lee likely wouldn’t cost much for the Mariners to re-sign, having made an economical $1MM this season.

While the Mariners could determine that Vogelbach isn’t yet the answer as a primary option and look outside for aid, Dipoto has already made it clear that he wants a younger group of position players in 2017 (via Brent Stecker of 710 ESPN Seattle). Scouring free agency, where there are a slew of potential targets in their mid-30s (Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli and Steve Pearce, to name a few), wouldn’t help Dipoto accomplish that goal. On paper, though, each is a more enticing (and far more expensive) choice than Vogelbach. The trade market probably won’t offer much, though the Brewers might put soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger Chris Carter on the block or even non-tender him.

Behind the plate, the Mariners seem prepared to turn to Mike Zunino again on the heels of an encouraging season that Servais called an “absolute success” (via Stecker). Because he began the year in Tacoma, Zunino only appeared in 55 games with the Mariners. The .195 career hitter batted an unsightly .207 along the way, but his 10.9 percent walk rate and .262 ISO led to .318 on-base and .470 slugging percentages. His overall batting line was easily above average, but it’s up in the air whether the third overall pick in the 2012 draft will continue drawing walks or hitting for power at such high clips. Nevertheless, he’s an asset as a defender, and Servais feels “really good about where he’s at and the strides he’s made to kinda be a front-line, everyday catcher.”

Even if the Mariners are confident enough in Zunino to avoid spending on one the market’s best available catchers – Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley – they could still use a decent complement at the position. Unfortunately, pickings will be slim outside of that quartet. Current backup Chris Iannetta has fallen off both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, which could convince the Mariners to decline his $4.25MM option, but it’s debatable whether anyone from the group of A.J. Ellis, Kurt Suzuki, Geovany Soto and Alex Avila is superior to him. The Mariners also have Jesus Sucre on hand, though it’s difficult to trust a 28-year-old with a .209/.246/.276 line in 264 major league PAs. Meanwhile, Steve Clevenger is a non-tender waiting to happen.

In the outfield, the Mariners only have one starter – center fielder Leonys Martin – under control for 2017. The team relied heavily on Seth Smith, Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez in the corners this year, and there are now decisions to make with all three. Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners plan to exercise Smith’s $7MM option, adding that Gutierrez will probably return in lieu of departing as a free agent. If true, the left-handed Smith and the right-handed Gutierrez would make for a useful platoon in right field. That would still leave one open spot, but Aoki is unlikely to occupy it if the club retains Smith, per Dutton.

Aside from Martin, Smith, Aoki and Gutierrez, the Mariners’ outfield candidates include relative unknowns in Guillermo Heredia and August acquisition Ben Gamel. Those two weren’t especially impressive in late-season auditions, which could lead the Mariners to look for an upgrade in the offseason. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported last month that Seattle might make a splash on a “complementary piece” during the winter. The outfield would be a sensible place to spend in that type of scenario.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler would be a particularly intriguing target if he gets to free agency. Fowler has long been a solid contributor at the plate and on the bases, and he’s coming off a respectable defensive year thanks to a change in alignment. The switch-hitting 30-year-old also got on base nearly 40 percent of the time this season and has done so at a .366 career clip, which should intrigue an OBP proponent like Dipoto. Potential drawbacks: Fowler would require a pricey multiyear commitment, signing him would cost the Mariners a first-round pick (currently No. 18 overall) if the Cubs tender him a qualifying offer, and either Fowler or Martin would have to be receptive to playing a corner.

Like Fowler, the Rangers’ Ian Desmond would also cost the Mariners significant money and a top pick. His versatility is interesting, though, as Desmond lined up at both left and center this year after spending the first several seasons of his career at shortstop. It’s unclear whether Desmond would consider moving back to short, but if he markets himself as an infielder/outfielder, a team in need in both areas (the Mariners, for instance) could enter the bidding.

As is the case with Desmond, fellow Ranger Carlos Gomez is an impending free agent who has played multiple outfield spots. While Gomez wouldn’t cost a pick and would bring a history of speed and defense to the Mariners, there’s considerable risk with him after he flamed out with the Astros from 2015-16. Gomez returned to his previous All-Star form at the plate with the Rangers in September, however, and will be on many teams’ radars as a result.

Shifting to their rotation, the Mariners have almost an entire starting five seemingly locked in with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, but it’s an unspectacular group. Hernandez and Iwakuma no longer look like front-line options, and Walker has been somewhat of a letdown in the majors since his days as an elite prospect. The Mariners possess other rotation possibilities in Nate Karns, who performed much better as a starter than as a reliever in 2016, and Ariel Miranda. Otherwise, the open market will feature plenty of flawed alternatives. Dipoto hasn’t been shy about making trades, so he could certainly explore that route, too.

Adding a productive innings eater would seem logical, as Hernandez is coming off his lowest mark since 2005 (153 1/3), Iwakuma has durability questions, Paxton has never thrown more than 171 2/3 frames in any professional season, and Walker just had ankle surgery and hasn’t exceeded 169 2/3 in any year. However, having a consistent track record of taking the ball every fifth day wasn’t enough for the Mariners to retain Wade Miley, whom they traded to Baltimore in July for Miranda. Miley was ineffective for Seattle and would have cost the club $8.75MM in 2017. Durable free agents like Edinson Volquez and former Mariner R.A. Dickey should carry similar (perhaps higher) per-year price tags to Miley, but it’s not a lock either would be part of the solution. While Bartolo Colon is better than Miley, Volquez and Dickey, signing the soon-to-be 44-year-old would require him to leave the Mets and switch coasts.

If Karns and Miranda don’t end up as starters, they could factor into the bullpen, where Seattle will be in fine shape even if it non-tenders Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush and/or Ryan Cook. The Mariners got great rookie performances this year from closer Edwin Diaz and Dan Altavilla. Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent and Vidal Nuno also look like shoo-ins to occupy spots. Steve Cishek and Tony Zych should figure heavily into the equation in theory, but there are notable health issues with the pair. Regardless, the Mariners clearly have a righty-heavy bullpen and could use a late-game lefty. They’ll be able to find solid and affordable southpaws on the market, where Jerry Blevins, Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepczynski will be among the possibilities not named Aroldis Chapman.

Since 2014, a year after they signed a $2 billion television deal, the Mariners’ payroll has risen exponentially. Seattle opened 2016 with a franchise-record $142MM-plus in 25-man roster commitments (up more than $50MM from 2014) and should surpass that mark next season. The club was on the cusp of the playoffs this year, and with new owner John Stanton motivated to win, Dipoto should have the resources available to put the Mariners in contention for an AL West title in 2017.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a season that was destroyed by injuries, the Angels will attempt to assemble a healthier, more competitive team for 2017.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

You’ve heard the Angels’ sob story by now. They suffered a rash of injuries early in 2016 that effectively ruined their season, forcing them to lean on questionable starters like Tim Lincecum in a desperate effort to find someone, anyone, who could take the ball every fifth day. They have Albert Pujols signed to a toxic contract. And they have a thin collection of prospects that, before the season, ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) described as “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen.” Woe be the Angels, woe be Mike Trout, and woe be GM Billy Eppler, who took the job last October.

Or so it would appear. Without a doubt, the Angels have problems. But their situation is more complex than their 74-88 2016 season and terrible farm system make it seem. The worst might be over, and the team can take big steps this winter toward a much-needed reboot.

The Angels’ poor 2016 performance was due in large part to a pitching staff that, by advanced metrics like xFIP and SIERA, ranked with the Reds as one of the league’s worst. That staff should be much better next season. Garrett Richards, who pitched just 34 2/3 innings in 2016, appears to be healthy after opting for stem cell treatments rather than surgery to rehab his torn UCL. It’s far from certain dodging Tommy John will work out for him, or that he’ll return to his earlier form, but the news so far is promising. Tyler Skaggs, too, could pitch a full season after missing all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to arm trouble. The 2017 Angels already appear to have more healthy rotation talent than the 2016 team did, and that’s before even making a move.

Then there are Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, who made a combined $40MM in 2016. Neither helped the team — Weaver spent the season on a futile quest to prevent opposing hitters from smashing 83-MPH fastballs to smithereens (although he deserves some credit for soaking up 178 innings despite his velocity troubles), and Wilson was hurt. They’ll both be free agents, and their departures will give the Angels considerable payroll flexibility, as they’ll only have about $125MM in payroll commitments for 2017 (including their arbitration-eligible players) compared to $165MM last season. In the recent past, they’ve limited payroll in an effort to stay beneath the luxury-tax threshold; it’s not entirely clear where the threshold will be next year, but it is clear the Angels will be comfortably beneath it before they begin shopping.

This is, unfortunately, not a good offseason to go hunting for pitching help, which the Angels will still need even if we make the tenuous assumption that Richards and Skaggs will be fully healthy. Those two could join Matt Shoemaker and Ricky Nolasco in the Angels’ 2017 rotation, but the team still needs a starter, or maybe two. The best starters the organization has who haven’t yet been mentioned here are Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano, who are both likely to miss the 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery. And the team’s farm system seems unlikely to produce much in the way of starting pitching help, or to give it much currency to acquire a starter on the trade market. The Angels do have lefty Nate Smith at Triple-A, and perhaps Brett Oberholtzer could be an option if he misses Super Two. Alex Meyer is another possibility. But the Angels don’t have much in the way of depth.

That could mean they enter a free agent market headed by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson. Alternately, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register recently suggested, they could use their available funds to take on a bad contract. They’ll have to get creative to make trades, but there should be a variety of pitch available with salaries high enough to limit the prospect cost they’ll take to acquire — someone like Jaime Garcia or Clay Buchholz, who both have 2017 team options, could make sense, or perhaps the Angels could pursue a young veteran like Tom Koehler or Drew Smyly.

The Angels’ position players were productive in 2016, as any group of hitters led by Mike Trout will tend to be. Trout, Kole Calhoun and Andrelton Simmons give the Angels a formidable core, and the team also seems somewhat settled at third base (where they’ll almost certainly exercise the option of the productive Yunel Escobar, although perhaps it’s at least faintly possible they could move Escobar to second and try to acquire a third baseman instead) and 1B/DH (where they have C.J. Cron and Pujols’ immovable contract).

That leaves catcher, second base and one outfield spot. Luckily for the Angels, the markets at those positions are more robust than the starting pitching market. Available catchers include Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and the injured Wilson Ramos. There’s also the chance the Angels could again gamble on Geovany Soto, who missed most of 2016 due to various injuries but was productive when he played. Soto might be an especially good fit for the Angels in that he would likely only require a one-year deal, helping the Angels balance their desire to be competitive in 2017 with the likelihood that they won’t contend until future seasons. Whoever the Angels end up with, he’ll likely pair with Jett Bandy, who struggled to get on base but otherwise had a reasonably productive rookie season in 2016.

The second base market is headlined by Neil Walker and Chase Utley, with only Walker requiring what figures to be a significant long-term commitment. It’s surely a long shot, but signing both Utley and either Sean Rodriguez or Steve Pearce would be an interesting outside-the-box move. Rodriguez and Pearce are both right-handed batters who hit well and could be good complements to the lefty-swinging Utley, while also potentially helping the Angels’ outfield situation.

The top prize in the outfield will be Yoenis Cespedes, making the relatively safe assumption that he’ll opt out of his deal with the Mets. The Angels weren’t among the top contenders for Cespedes last offseason because of luxury-tax concerns, but that could be different this winter. Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez are also available. A left-handed hitter like Michael Saunders, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Colby Rasmus or Jon Jay, or a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan, could work, since the Angels currently have a righty-heavy lineup. (The list of current Angels righties also includes former top Mets prospect Jefry Marte, who hit well down the stretch last season and could get playing time in the outfield as needed.) Former Angels slugger Mark Trumbo will be available after a 47-homer season, but the Angels would do well to avoid him at the price they’re likely to have to pay, since he’s poor defensively and they don’t have space at DH.

The bullpen’s 3.77 ERA in 2016 was merely respectable, and its 4.45 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA indicate that Angels relievers were weaker than their ERAs suggested. Closer Huston Street figures to be healthy after a terrible 2016 season in which he posted a 6.45 ERA in 22 1/3 innings and missed time to oblique and knee problems. It remains to be seen whether he can return to form, given his poor 2016 performance and his velocity, which has declined since 2009 and now rests at around 88 MPH. Cam Bedrosian likewise ended the season on the DL due to a blood clot, but his future appears brighter than Street’s — he had a brilliant 2016 season and figures to be healthy for Spring Training.

The 2017 bullpen should also feature some combination of Jose Alvarez, J.C. Ramirez and Mike Morin, all of whom soaked up innings at least somewhat effectively last season. And, depending on who remains on their 40-man roster once the offseason is through, the Angels will also have a variety of even lower-wattage options to sort through, like Blake Parker, Deolis Guerra, Kirby Yates, Meyer, and lefties Cody Ege, Ashur Tolliver and Greg Mahle.

Parker, Yates, Ege and Tolliver are all recent waiver claims, and the waiver claim has lately been the Angels’ most-used tool to compensate for their lack of farm system depth. The team could continue to tread down that narrow avenue and others like the Rule 5 Draft, which is where they originally got Guerra. It might even work, at least to a degree — Parker, in particular, seems likely to be at least somewhat productive in the big leagues, based on his recent minor league numbers. Still, the Angels will probably want to grab at least one experienced reliever on a big-league deal this offseason, particularly given the uncertainty regarding Street. They might also want to re-sign Andrew Bailey, who pitched well in 12 appearances with the team.

The Angels have many holes. Even if they spend relatively heavily, they aren’t likely to adequately fill them all, and it will be awhile before Eppler and his front office can produce enough homegrown talent for the team to start filling talent gaps with farm-raised players. For now, they’ll have to spend money, and be creative where spending on free agents won’t work. (The Angels do currently have the last protected pick in the 2017 draft, and therefore won’t risk losing a farm-system-nourishing first-round pick if they pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers.)

Mike TroutThe good news is that they have Trout, a player so terrific that the Angels can be competitive if the rest of their players are even adequate. A player who routinely produces nine-win seasons can hide a lot of problems. The 2017 Angels aren’t going to be perfect, but Trout alone gives them a solid chance at being decent, and some smart free-agent signings could make them even a bit better than that.

After the Angels’ rash of injuries last year, there was plenty of outside discussion about the team potentially trading Trout. But the speculation went nowhere, and understandably so. It would be extremely difficult for the Angels to get fair value for Trout, for one thing. Also, he only recently turned 25, and he’ll be under team control for four more seasons. That should be enough time for Eppler to improve the Angels’ talent base. If the team’s big-league core hasn’t significantly improved in a couple years, the Angels can easily wait to trade Trout then, as long as he stays healthy.

In the meantime, the situation in Anaheim isn’t as dire as last season made it look. The team’s farm system is an ongoing problem, and it gives the organization a low floor — injuries ruined the Angels’ 2016 season, and that could happen again next year or in 2018, because the organization currently doesn’t have the depth to compensate for them. That’s a serious concern, given that it isn’t automatic that Richards will be ready to pitch and pitch well. But with Trout, Calhoun, Simmons, Richards, Shoemaker and Bedrosian aboard, there’s plenty of talent. And with money to spend, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Eppler were able to cobble together another contending team before too long.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Other Financial Commitments

Free Agents

New York Yankees Depth Chart; Yankees Payroll Overview

Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.

However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.

Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.

The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.

The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.

The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Phillies faded badly after a solid start to the 2016 campaign, and ultimately dealt with some ups and downs from important organizational assets. But with an increasingly massive gulf between the team’s commitments and its spending capacity, the build back toward contention may begin to feature investments in the major league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Matt Harrison, SP: $15MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.25MM club option for 2018)

Other Obligations

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Phillies Depth Chart; Phillies Payroll Information

With a big new TV contract backing a franchise that already has shown more capacity to spend than all but a few others, the Phillies have been a monster in waiting from the moment their veteran-laden roster took a downturn after the 2011 campaign — its last of five straight NL East title runs. But that was five seasons ago, and the rebuild has really only been undertaken in earnest over the last two years, leading president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak to continue preaching patience.

All told, despite essentially unrestrained spending capacity, the Phillies are unlikely to lock up too much future payroll space this winter. Klentak has consistently dampened any expectations of a free agent spending spree, and reports suggest instead that the club will look to the free agent and trade markets for some targeted additions — thus maintaining flexibility and keeping the books clear for future extensions and more promising open-market classes still to come.

That said, the Phils can’t be counted out for any free agents, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the team will weigh a significant addition if it sees a chance at achieving good value and infusing some life into Citizens Bank Park. Certainly, there are a variety of roster spots that could stand to be improved.

The place to start, it seems, is the outfield, where only center is locked down. The remarkable Odubel Herrera has not only been the team’s best player in each of the last two years after being plucked in the Rule 5 draft, but improved significantly in plate discipline (nearly tripling his walks) and home run power (from eight to 15) in his second MLB campaign.

Otherwise, it’s open season. Though there are internal possibilities — now and in the near future — to account for, neither corner spot is spoken for. Cody Asche struggled and may well be a non-tender candidate. Aaron Altherr didn’t progress as hoped after missing a big chunk of the season. Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel will surely head to the minors for needed seasoning. The highly-rated Nick Williams scuffled at Triple-A, with 136 strikeouts against just 19 walks, so he’s probably headed back to Lehigh Valley. Good things happened at Double-A, where Dylan Cozens emerged with forty home runs and Andrew Pullin had a mini-breakout of his own, but neither player stands out as particularly likely to make the MLB roster out of camp. Roman Quinn did reach the majors after a solid showing at Reading, and could be a candidate for a roster spot, but he hasn’t shown much power and showed enough swing-and-miss in his brief MLB stint that more development may be in order.

That group, along with those deeper in the system, may come with enough promise that the Phillies won’t chase two multi-year outfield additions. But it seems reasonable to expect that the club will at least sign one established veteran to man a corner post for the next several years. There are a variety of options available, ranging from the probably-unrealistic Yoenis Cespedes to the steady Josh Reddick and relatively youthful left-handed hitters Michael Saunders and Colby Rasmus. We’ve heard some chatter connecting Ian Desmond to Philly, where presumably he’d play in left or even occupy a utility role at some point. Dangling a moderate guarantee with an opt-out to Carlos Gomez could be interesting. And if they like what they’ve seen, the Phillies could be in a nice position to take a shot on MLB-to-KBO success story Eric Thames (assuming he’d move back to the grass if he returns stateside). Odds are, the club will add at least two veterans, perhaps chasing a shorter-term deal with some upside on one player.

There’s far less work to be done in the infield, where most of the jobs are accounted for. Though he took a step back, Maikel Franco remains the future at third. Shortstop Freddy Galvis doesn’t get on base much, but put on a late-season power surge and showed plenty of glove to hold onto the everyday job. The expectation remains that he’s keeping the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, though Galvis’s strong finish and Crawford’s tepid batting line in his first run at Triple-A almost certainly makes that a mid-season debate. Looking at second, Cesar Hernandez somewhat quietly ended up having a big year, posting a .371 on-base percentage, fielding his position quite well, though he was gunned down in 13 of 30 stolen base attempts. The team will presumably either re-sign Andres Blanco, who has been surprisingly useful, or find another sturdy utility piece to fill things out.

There’s a bit more uncertainty at first and behind the plate, but that doesn’t mean there’s reason to expect any major action. With Ryan Howard set to follow Carlos Ruiz out the door, finally closing the book on the team’s stretch of excellence, the first base job seems set to go to Tommy Joseph — who battled through concussion issues that forced him out from the catching position. He swatted 21 home runs and posted a .257/.308/.505 batting line in 347 plate appearances, though he was much better with the platoon advantage and could end up being paired with a lefty slugger. Joseph’s emergence may push Darin Ruf off the roster.

In some regards, 28-year-old backstop Cameron Rupp was an even bigger surprise than Joseph. He posted league-average overall offensive numbers and whacked 16 long balls in his 419 trips to the plate, setting himself up as the primary receiver for 2017. A strike to bring back A.J. Ellis (who was acquired when Ruiz was traded) or add another one-year veteran wouldn’t be surprising. Regardless of where Joseph goes from here, the organization will want to see what it has sooner than later in top prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, so a significant addition would be a surprise.

As for the pitching, it was two steps forward, one step back in many regards. Righty Aaron Nola is the chief example of that, as he showed immense promise — with 9.8 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 and a 55.2% groundball rate — even if a low strand rate (60.6%) helped crater his earned run average (4.78 over 111 innings). The big question, though, is whether he can work back from a UCL sprain or whether he’ll end up succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Vince Velasquez also dealt with arm troubles and inconsistency, but was dominant at times and ended up with 131 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. Forming the third piece of what could be a nice core was fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff, who has exceeded expectations (both of prospect observers and of ERA estimators) with 248 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA pitching since rising to the major league level in the middle of 2015.

How the Phils will account for the two or three remaining spots in the rotation remains to be seen. Charlie Morton figures to hit the open market after missing most of the year, unless he and the team see eye to eye on a mutual option or work something else out. Less-established starters Adam Morgan, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson all logged significant MLB innings, but none performed well enough to lock up a job (and Eflin will also be working back from surgery to both knees). Command artist Alec Asher was excellent in the upper minors before a PED suspension, and then got strong results in five major league starts upon his return, so he could factor in the club’s 2016 plans.

While there are options on hand, odds are the Phils will look to add at least one sturdy veteran. Jeremy Hellickson filled that role quite nicely after being acquired via trade, and it seems the team will be able to recoup a draft pick for its investment by issuing him a qualifying offer. Klentak will likely be looking to find at least one more solid rotation piece, whether by signing or trade. It seems reasonable to think that the team will again be willing to allocate a decent bit of money to that effort, so long as the contract doesn’t drag out too far into the future. Another strike similar to the trades for Hellickson and Morton would not surprise. There are some fairly costly pitchers with short-term control remaining (via arb or option) who could fit a generally similar profile, such as Drew Smyly, Hector Santiago, Jordan Lyles, Jaime Garcia, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz, and even Tyson Ross — if he can show that he’s on an upward health trajectory, at least.

The bullpen, too, can be filled mostly from within, but the Phillies can also open up the late innings to outsiders who are interested in throwing high-leverage innings. Incumbent closer Jeanmar Gomez stumbled down the stretch, and could even draw non-tender consideration with his save tally inflating his earning power. But he was quite good for most of the year, seemingly wearing down in the course of another season of heavy usage. Hector Neris was the true eye-opener in 2016, and he’ll continue to play a significant role moving forward. Neris appears to be first in line for closing duties, though the club could dangle that opportunity in a bid to draw veteran free agents.

Filling things out will likely involve giving some chances to younger players while perhaps taking some shots on veterans — as the team did last year with David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and others. The Phils received interesting showings last year from live-armed young hurlers such as Edubray Ramos, Joely Rodriguez, and Severino Gonzalez, all of whom will factor at some point in 2017. Others — including Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, and Phil Klein — could be kept on the 40-man for depth and given a chance to compete this spring. While Elvis Araujo and injury-addled Mario Hollands could compete for a chance to serve as a lefty option alongside Rodriguez, that’s certainly a plausible area for the club to target on the open market. All told, dropping a bit of cash on the bullpen would be an easy way to improve for the Phillies, but it would be exceedingly surprising were the club to play in the markets for the top available closers.

What’s not covered above, at least not directly, is the possibility of more creative action than we’ve seen of late. Klentak has thus far proceeded steadily — after all, most of the Phillies’ major veteran pieces were already gone when he took over — rather than engineering the kinds of bold swaps put together by the new-look Braves front office. But he also has far more financial might at his disposal, and already wielded it to add Hellickson, Morton, and Hernandez last winter. Whether it’s absorbing a big salary to facilitate the acquisition of a quality youngster, taking advantage of the team’s protected first-round pick to land a QO-bound free agent who slips through the cracks, or finding some other means of buying up talent, there figure to be many opportunities for Klentak to absorb this winter.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Since July 2015, the rebuilding Reds have been able to trade away Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier and Mike Leake in exchange for young talent, including several players who contributed in 2016. The team’s remaining star player, Joey Votto, is still in the prime of his career and would likely be willing to waive his no-trade clause if the rebuilding is to continue. Which direction will the Reds go this offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $179MM through 2023 ($20MM club option in 2014; $7MM buyout; full no-trade clause)
  • Homer Bailey, SP: $69MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option in 2020; $5MM buyout)
  • Brandon Phillips, 2B: $14MMMM through 2017 (full no-trade clause as part of 10-and-5 rights)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RP: est. $21MM through 2020 (can opt out and file for arbitration after 2017 season)
  • Devin Mesoraco, C: $20.45MM through 2018

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Information

The 33-year-old Votto is still owed close to $180MM through his age-39 season in 2023. With the expectation that he’d be past his prime for at least a few of those seven seasons, teams probably aren’t willing to take on that kind of money and give up premium young assets to get him. Unless the Reds are willing to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, Votto is likely staying put.

With that in mind, along with a halfway decent second half (35-37) that likely saved manager Bryan Price’s job, it’s possible that the rebuilding period has come to an end. Notable acquisitions in trades for veteran talent since the 2014-15 offseason include Rookie Davis, Anthony DeSclafani, Adam Duvall, Brandon Finnegan, Dilson Herrera, Keury Mella, Jose Peraza, Cody Reed and Eugenio Suarez. With that group assembled, general manager Dick Williams could look to add an impact player or two at the major league level as he takes over the baseball operations department from president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty this offseason.

Votto might’ve been the best hitter in baseball in 2016 after struggling out of the gate. From May 1st through the end of the season, he posted a 1.044 OPS with 27 homers, 33 doubles and 96 walks. That’s a pretty good starting point if you’re building a playoff-caliber lineup. But is there enough talent surrounding him?

After posting a sub-.300 on-base percentage through the first 1350 plate appearances of his career, speedster Billy Hamilton reached base nearly 37% of the time in the second half of the 2016 season. While it was only 197 plate appearances—he suffered a season-ending oblique injury in early September—it was a very encouraging development for a Reds lineup that also had a breakout from Duvall (33 HR, 31 2B) and strong second half performances from Brandon Phillips (.828 OPS), Suarez (.765 OPS) and right fielder Schebler (.818 OPS).

A return to health from catcher Devin Mesoraco would give the Reds an additional boost. The 28-year-old has played in only 39 games since signing a four-year contract extension after a terrific 2014 season (.893 OPS, 25 HR). The expectation is that he’ll be ready for Spring Training after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and and hip surgery in July. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, the Reds figure to ease him back to regular duties with Tucker Barnhart, a strong defender who posted a .702 OPS in 2016, having proved that he was a capable big league catcher.

Even if the rebuild is over, the Reds could still look to trade Phillips—he would need to waive his no-trade clause— and shortstop Zack Cozart, with Peraza and Herrera representing capable replacements up the middle. Phillips, who vetoed a trade to the Washington Nationals last offseason, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $14MM.

The market for a highly-paid second baseman entering his age-36 season probably isn’t great even if Phillips agrees to waive his no-trade clause. Cozart, on the other hand, should have plenty of interest, although the Reds likely missed their best shot at trading him at peak value. When the trade deadline passed on August 1st, Cozart was having a career year with a .779 OPS and 15 homers. He stayed put, however, and went into a 19-for-96 (.198 BA) with one homer before he was shut down with a sore knee in mid-September. The Mariners, who were reportedly close to acquiring Cozart prior to the trade deadline, could still have him on their radar. The Padres and Twins, who have Luis Sardinas and Jorge Polanco penciled in, respectively, could also be interested in acquiring Cozart for 2017.

While there are no clear holes in the lineup, Schebler’s success came in a small sample (.762 OPS in 82 games) and the addition of another corner outfielder, at least to create some competition and provide depth, wouldn’t be a bad idea. Peraza, who posted a .762 OPS with 21 stolen bases in 72 games as a rookie, could also push for playing time at several different spots. He started games at shortstop, center field, left field and second base in 2016. Even if a regular lineup spot isn’t in the cards for 2017, his versatility still allows him to fill a super-utility role with at least four starts per week.

The pitching staff, despite finishing the season with the 3rd worst ERA in baseball (4.91), also gave the team plenty of reasons for optimism with strong second half performances from both the starting rotation and bullpen.

After missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury, DeSclafani was able to stabilize the top of the rotation with a 3.28 ERA and 70% quality start rate. Taking a flyer on Dan Straily, who was claimed off of waivers just before the start of the season, worked out well. The 27-year-old led the team in wins (14), starts (31), innings (191.1) and strikeouts (162) while posting a respectable 3.76 ERA. The team’s bevy of young starting pitchers mostly struggled, but Finnegan finished on a strong note with a 2.23 ERA over his last 11 starts.

Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey’s return from Tommy John surgery was not a smooth one (6.65 ERA in six starts) and top prospects Reed and Robert Stephenson proved that they weren’t quite ready for the big leagues. However, Bailey should be closer to his pre-injury form next April and the talented duo of Reed and Stephenson are breakout candidates in 2017. Amir Garrett (2.55 ERA, 3.7 BB/9. 8.2 K/9 between Triple-A and Double-A) could also factor into the mix.

There are still too many question marks for the Reds to stand pat, however, and the addition of another reliable starting pitcher could be at the top of their offseason wish list. But as is the case with the other 29 teams in baseball, this is easier said than done. Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are the best starters available in free agency and would likely cost more than the Reds are willing to pay to upgrade their rotation. The key will be finding a gem amongst the long list of free agent mid-rotation options who are coming off of unproductive and/or injury-riddled seasons.

While Raisel Iglesias could be the frontline starter that the Reds need, the closer’s role that he finished the season in might a permanent one. With his health and durability a long-term concern, the Reds had the 26-year-old pitch out of the bullpen after a disabled list stint that kept him out of action from mid-April until late July. As expected, he was very tough on opposing hitters and his ability to pitch multiple innings proved to be valuable. By season’s end, he was Price’s top choice to close out games. Michael Lorenzen, another former starter moved to the bullpen because of health concerns, also thrived in his new role and emerged as the primary setup man.

Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood pitched well enough to enter 2017 with spots, as did lefty Tony Cingrani, who held down the closer’s job for a long stretch before struggling in September. Alejandro Chacin, who dominated at the Double-A level in 2016 (1.78 ERA, 11.1 K/9), could also make an impact next season.

Adding two veteran relievers who Price can lean on to help ease the workload of Iglesias and Lorenzen would go a long way in bringing the Reds back to respectability. Williams has expressed a willingness to spend money to upgrade this area of the roster, which could put them in the mix for one of the top free agent relievers not named Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon.

It’s unrealistic to think that the Reds can jump to the top of the pack in a very tough division. If they continue to build on the several bright spots from the second half, however, and add some talent to the big league roster this offseason, 81-85 wins isn’t out of the question in 2017.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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Despite a last-place finish and their third straight losing season, the Rays are looking to reload rather than rebuild for 2017.

[Rays depth chart & payroll, via Roster Resource]

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $94MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $5MM buyout)
  • Chris Archer, SP: $20.25MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
  • Logan Forsythe, 2B: $5.75MM through 2017 ($8.5MM club option for 2018, $1MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

The Rays’ 68-94 record marked the first time the club had failed to crack the 70-win plateau since the 2007 season, which was also the last year that Tampa finished last in the AL East.  There’s an argument to be made that a low-payroll team in a tough division should consider starting from scratch after such a rough season, yet the Rays certainly seem to have more talent than your usual last-place team.  With so many interesting players on hand, it isn’t surprising that Rays president of baseball ops Matt Silverman and his front office is “hellbent on getting this team back into contention.”

That being said, Silverman and company have quite a bit of work to do in figuring out how to fix their roster’s flaws.  Pretty much every unit on the team is a “yeah, but…” situation.  The lineup finished with the sixth-most homers of any team in baseball, but only 13th of 30 teams in slugging percentage, 24th in runs scored, 27th in OBP and 28th in batting average.  The bullpen had Alex Colome enjoy a breakout season as closer, but the relief corps as a whole ranked in the bottom half of the league in ERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9.  The Rays’ rotation has long been touted for their collection of young arms, but they finished middle-of-the-pack in most starting pitching categories, and lost one of their young arms when Matt Moore was traded to the Giants at the deadline.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which stands as Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly.  Archer is looking to bounce back from something of a hard-luck year that saw a big spike in his home run totals, though most of his issues came only in the first half of the season.  Smyly is also looking for a rebound year, Snell will enter his first full year in the bigs and Cobb will be looking for a full campaign after making just five starts in 2016 as he returned from Tommy John surgery.

Tampa’s starting five has a lot of talent, though on the whole is still weighed more towards promise than proven MLB results.  Matt Andriese is also on hand as a rotation candidate, and I could be underrating his shot at a starting job.  He posted the same 2.0 fWAR as Odorizzi and Smyly despite pitching significantly fewer innings, and Andriese topped them both in BB/9, home run rate, grounder rate, FIP, xXIP and SIERA.  These stats aside, Andriese pitched quite a bit better in his 22 2/3 relief innings than he did in 105 IP as a starter, so the Rays could feel the righty is needed in the bullpen.  He could easily slide back into the rotation for a spot start or perhaps a more permanent role change if Smyly, Cobb or Snell struggle.

With some starting depth available, could the Rays deal another arm?  Archer and Odorizzi generated a lot of attention at the trade deadline before Moore was shipped out, and Smyly could also draw interest given his potential and two remaining years of control.  This offseason’s free agent starting pitching market is painfully thin, so Silverman could demand an even larger return for one of his top starters now than he did at the deadline.  Barring a blockbuster offer, I’d guess it would still be surprising to see the Rays deal Archer given his team-friendly contract (plus, most teams planning to contend don’t trade their ace).  Odorizzi and Smyly, however, could be shopped given their rising arbitration costs.

In the event of a starting pitching trade, Andriese could be elevated to the rotation or the Rays could pursue a veteran on a minor league deal to provide depth or compete for the fifth starter’s job.  Tampa Bay could also look to its farm system (i.e. Dylan Floro, Taylor Guerrieri or Brent Honeywell) for added starting or relief depth.

Any of these young arms could see work in relief anyway, as there is certainly room for improvement in the bullpen.  The Rays will be building from the back of the bullpen outwards, as while Colome got a bit of peripheral luck (namely a whopping 93% strand rate), the Rays probably feel pretty good about their ninth-inning situation.  Beyond Colome, southpaw Xavier Cedeno and righty Danny Farquhar had good seasons, long reliever Erasmo Ramirez was at least able to eat innings, and former closer Brad Boxberger is hoping to bounce back from an injury-ravaged year.  Boxberger will look for better health and better control (as per his ungainly 7.03 BB/9 over 24 1/3 innings), and while the Rays would hope Boxberger is able to serve as a setup man, they can’t be counting on much in the wake of his lost season.

If Tampa looks to free agency to bolster the pen, expect the team to pursue veterans on inexpensive one-year deals in the hopes of finding a reclamation project.  One option could be to re-sign a familiar face in Kevin Jepsen, who struggled badly last year but posted strong relief numbers in 2014-15.

As always, don’t expect the Rays to be big spenders this winter.  After pushing payroll into the $74-75MM range in 2014 and 2015 in hopes of making a pennant run, the 2016 Opening Day payroll dropped to roughly $66.68MM.  Tampa already has approximately $58.2MM committed to 14 players for 2017, between the slightly more than $25MM guaranteed to Archer, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria and the $33.2MM projected to the club’s large arbitration class.

Smyly and Odorizzi have the highest price tags of those 11 arb-eligible players, and as I noted earlier, the Rays could free up some payroll space by trading either.  Ramirez’s $3.5MM projected salary could make him a trade chip as well.  Despite his interesting usage as an old-school fireman type of reliever, Ramirez’s numbers weren’t much more than average, so he could be seen as expendable.

Trading Longoria would free up the most money, of course, though there isn’t any sign that the Rays would deal their franchise player.  This is another case where, if the Rays are serious about contending, they’re pretty unlikely to deal an established star, especially since Tampa still has quite a few question marks around the diamond.  Third base is a position the Rays don’t have to worry about thanks to Longoria, with second base (Forsythe) and center (Kevin Kiermaier) also not positions of need.

The Rays believe they have an answer at shortstop in the form of Matt Duffy, acquired in the Moore trade.  Duffy was an outstanding third base defender over two seasons in San Francisco though he has only played 28 games at short in the big leagues.  Duffy recently underwent surgery to fix an Achilles tendon issue that bothered him all season and quite likely contributed to his poor year at the plate.  It could be that Duffy’s eventual future is as a utilityman given that top shortstop prospects Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames are both in the pipeline, but for now, Tampa Bay hopes Duffy can solidify a position that has been an issue.

Steven Souza is still the incumbent right fielder, though the Rays are still looking for a breakout from the 27-year-old.  Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson are penciled in at first base and left field, respectively, with Dickerson stepping up as defender last year after a few subpar years in left with the Rockies.  Miller has struggled with the glove pretty much everywhere he’s played around the diamond, though the Rays can live with some defensive issues at the less-critical position of first as long as Miller keeps slugging.  Acquired in a six-player deal with the Mariners last winter, Miller delivered just the 11th 30-homer season in Rays history.

Miller and Dickerson are both left-handed hitters who haven’t shown much against left-handed pitching, so the Rays could use a right-handed bat or two to platoon at first or in left field.  Richie Shaffer and Mikie Mahtook are internal options for these role, though Shaffer has actually hit righties much better over his brief career, while Mahtook couldn’t hit anything (39 wRC+) over 196 plate appearances last season.  Mahtook is at least ticketed for the fourth outfielder job given his ability to handle all three outfield spots.  First baseman Casey Gillaspie, the Rays’ first-round pick in the 2014 draft, hit very well in his first taste of Triple-A action last season and could earn himself a big league platoon role with a big Spring Training.

Looking at the 2016-17 free agent list for lefty-mashing bats in the Rays’ price range, players like Dae-Ho Lee or Franklin Gutierrez could be considered to join the 1B/DH/LF mix.  Sean Rodriguez, a former Ray, would also fit as a right-handed bat though his big 2016 numbers and defensive versatility may earn him a bigger contract than Tampa can afford.

One free agent name that jumps out is the guy the Rays signed last winter as a lefty-masher.  Steve Pearce posted an outstanding .908 OPS over 232 PA for the Rays before being dealt to Baltimore at the trade deadline.  Unfortunately for Pearce, a flexor mass injury in his right forearm limited his time with the O’s and he underwent surgery to fix the problem in late September.  Pearce will be sidelined until late January at the earliest and late March in a worst-case scenario, so until his diagnosis becomes clear, it’s hard to see him netting more than a one-year deal.  The Rays could offer Pearce a chance to return to a familiar surrounding and potentially pick up there he left off in 2016, playing either at first or in left when a southpaw is on the mound.  To sweeten the deal, the Rays could perhaps even take a flier on Pearce on a low-cost two-year deal to offer the veteran more long-term security.

Speaking of fliers, and this is purely speculation on my part, the Rays could use their unsettled catcher and DH spots as a way of looking into the Wilson Ramos market.  Such a scenario would’ve been unthinkable a few weeks ago, when Ramos was on pace to score perhaps as much as a five-year deal as the top free agent catcher on the market.  Then, unfortunately, Ramos suffered a torn right ACL for the second time in his career, ending his season and throwing his near-future into total uncertainty.  It won’t be known how much time Ramos will miss until he actually has his surgery, though he himself speculated that if he can’t physically handle regular catching duties, he could be limited to playing for AL teams due to the designated hitter rule.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in that previous link, the Tropicana Field turf may not be an ideal landing spot for a catcher with bad knees, plus the Rays might still not be able to afford Ramos even if he ends up taking some type of prorated or incentive-heavy contract.  It would behoove the Rays to explore all options behind the plate, however, given how catcher has been such a problem area for years.  None of the catchers in the mix last year (Wilson, Curt Casali, Luke Maile, Hank Conger) did much to solve that problem, either offensively or defensively.

The Rays can’t afford Matt Wieters, but second-tier free agent catchers like Nick Hundley or Jason Castro could potentially be options if the Rays are willing to splurge (by their standards) on a notable multi-year contract.  The likes of Carlos Ruiz, Alex Avila or Chris Iannetta would be even cheaper and maybe more realistic options.  This offseason’s class is about as wide as a free agent catching market gets, so Tampa Bay can go in many directions for a sorely-needed upgrade.

Since free agency is something of a luxury for the Rays, expect Silverman to continue mining the trade market, as he did in his first two offseasons running Tampa’s front office.  The baseball operations head has done a good job of adding new building blocks for expendable parts, though clearly Silverman hasn’t been able to find the ideal mix for plugging all the holes on the roster.  This winter could go a long way towards determining the Rays’ future direction, as if they can’t get back on the winning track in 2017, hard questions may need to be asked about whether this core group of players are viable cornerstones for a contender or if a full rebuild could finally be necessary.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The rebuilding Braves didn’t show much improvement in the standings, ending up with a 68-93 record that landed them the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft. But Atlanta ended the year on a 12-and-2 tear that represented a high note on which to finish. With a much-anticipated new ballpark on the horizon and an expectation of significant financial outlays at the major league level, hopes are high … but just how high should they be?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

Atlanta Braves Depth Chart; Atlanta Braves Payroll Information

In some ways, the task to date has been straightforward for Atlanta GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart: with a prioritization of value over need, and talent over results, he set out to add as much controllable talent as possible. That has resulted in a highly-regarded farm system that is increasingly pushing players onto the major league roster. But now, the balance begins to get a bit trickier.

The Braves spoke of improving at the major league level in 2016, and that didn’t really occur. But Coppolella and company nevertheless intend to take a step toward focusing on major league results in the coming campaign. The first order of business was choosing a manager, with interim skipper Brian Snitker receiving the permanent nod after delivering solid results down the stretch.

The shifting mindset is most evident in regard to the starting rotation, where Coppolella says at least two additions are planned. Much of the rebuild has focused on adding pre-MLB arms, a fair number of them at the upper levels of the minors, but to date that hasn’t led to much productivity at the major league level. Atlanta’s rotation was one of the worst in all of baseball last year, with only Julio Teheran posting a full season’s worth of quality starts.

Whether or not Teheran and his appealing contract reach the trading block has long been the source of intrigue, but it may be that the Braves will no longer seriously pursue such a path — unless, at least, there’s a truly overwhelming offer to be had that includes major league-ready talent. Otherwise, Mike Foltynewicz seemingly showed enough (4.31 ERA, 8.1 K/9 vs. 2.6 BB/9 in 123 1/3 innings) to warrant a spot in next year’s rotation, but the rest of the staff seems to be up for grabs.

If Atlanta does add two established pitchers to its stable — no small feat on a barren market for starters — then that would appear to leave a single job available for the remaining internal options. Josh Collmenter, who was added late in the year, could take a starter’s role or end up as a swingman. Less-established hurlers such as Matt Wisler, John Gant, Aaron Blair, Williams Perez, and Tyrell Jenkins may also battle for jobs, but will need to impress in camp to avoid a trip back to Triple-A Gwinnett. Some pitchers who have yet to make their major league debuts could ultimately enter the mix as the season progresses, including Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and breakout talent Patrick Weigel.

Looking at the market for the pair of arms that Atlanta desires, there are a variety of possible approaches for the team to consider. Following the Phillies’ plan a winter ago — targeting bounceback veterans on short-term, reasonably expensive contracts — could lead the Braves to pursue a pitcher such as Jason Hammel or Jaime Garcia via trade. There are bigger fish that could be available from other organizations, though indications from the team are that it won’t part with the top prospects that would be needed to land a true top-of-the-rotation arm. The free agent market does contain some options, of course. It would be surprising to see the Braves chase Rich Hill, the highest-upside arm available, but they could conceivably look into Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova while also chasing value further down the market — where pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Charlie Morton, Edinson Volquez, and Doug Fister.

The bullpen could be a landing spot for a few of those pitchers, but seems likely to be anchored by Arodys Vizcaino — who’ll look to bounce back after a very rough second half that was impacted by shoulder problems — and veteran Jim Johnson, who just re-upped for two more years. Young fireballer Mauricio Cabrera has also likely locked up a spot, though his peripherals (7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 49.1% groundball rate) didn’t quite mach his ERA (2.82) and outrageous average velocity (an even 100 mph). Jose Ramirez showed well in his first extensive taste in the majors, Chris Withrow may have the track on a job if he can return to health, and Ian Krol will likely be the top lefty after a nice bounceback season. With other names in the mix as well, the pen doesn’t figure to be an area of focus this winter, though certainly a veteran arm could end up being added here as well.

Much the same holds true of the outfield, which received a boost from Matt Kemp after his mid-season acquisition. The veteran showed signs of a resurgence after coming over in a swap that allowed the Braves to jettison Hector Olivera. When the dust settled, Atlanta was left on the hook for $8.5MM annually over the next three years over and above Olivera’s own $28.5MM in remaining obligations. (They’ll still actually pay Kemp the $54.5MM reflected above.) The 32-year-old swatted a dozen long balls in 241 plate appearances, and more importantly raised his overall batting line to .280/.336/.519. He’d still be a better fit in the American League, but that’s reasonably-priced pop even given his defensive limitations.

The club will have some potential decisions to make in the outfield, though. Ender Inciarte remains the obvious choice in center after putting up another season of average hitting combined with stellar defense and baserunning. Nick Markakis remains entrenched in right. Though he returned to hitting low-double-digit home runs (13 this year), he’s still only an average producer on offense. His glove does continue to boost his value, but Markakis probably doesn’t profile as a first-division regular at this stage of his career. Whether the Braves can find a taker for a big portion of his remaining salary may be the difference in determining the near-term fate of Mallex Smith, who could end up opening the year at Triple-A after a solid but hardly commanding rookie-year performance.

It’s also not clear whether Atlanta will push hard to make changes in the infield — at least in the traditional sense of signing a free agent to plug a hole — though certainly creative possibilities can’t be discounted. Freddie Freeman is obviously a lock at first base, where he’ll aim to repeat a stellar 2016. And Dansby Swanson is nearly as good a bet to take the everyday job at short that he handled well upon his late-season call-up.

At second and third, the Braves have relatively little need to act, but certainly could if the right opportunity arose. The former is being held open for Ozzie Albies, who’ll compete for a job out of camp but may spend a bit more time in the upper minors before making his ascent — particularly since he won’t be able to play in the Arizona Fall League after suffering a late-season olecranon fracture. Though he struggled at Triple-A, Albies posted a monster .321/.391/.467 batting line with 21 stolen bases in 371 plate appearances at Double-A last year, playing at just 19 years of age. With Jace Peterson available at second and Daniel Castro on hand as a utility option, expectations are that Atlanta will keep relatively quiet in this area while waiting for Albies.

At the hot corner, Adonis Garcia probably showed enough down the stretch to obviate the need for a short-term signing. After a rough start, the 31-year-old posted a .293/.333/.456 batting line with nine home runs over his 301 plate appearances and drew more promising reviews of his glovework down the stretch. He could be pushed in camp, though, by youngster Rio Ruiz, who had a solid .271/.355/.400 campaign at Triple-A in his age-22 season. Though there’s not a need here, strictly speaking, it is an area where the team could look to upgrade if there’s a chance to add a high-quality player.

If there’s a spot other than the rotation that will almost certainly see some change, it’s behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will be back after a strong season in which he ran up a 109 OPS+ while appearing in 83 games. Journeyman Anthony Recker is controllable as well, and was even more impressive (.278/.394/.433) in his 112 plate appearances. But with Opening Day starter A.J. Pierzynski set to depart, and a mandate to improve, there has been plenty of chatter about the possibilities for an upgrade.

The free agent catching market took a huge hit with the recent ACL tear of Wilson Ramos, and it had already lost Francisco Cervelli when he agreed to an extension with the Pirates earlier in the season. But there are still at least a few near-everyday players set to reach the open market — chiefly, Matt Wieters (who has ties to the Atlanta area) and Jason Castro — and the trade market could provide some avenues as well. Atlanta has been connected, in particular, with long-time star Brian McCann, though it doesn’t seem as if the Yankees will part with him for quite as low a price as the Braves would prefer to pay. A bounceback candidate such as Derek Norris could also be pursued if the team’s preferred options aren’t achievable.

All told, there are a number of places on this roster that a clear contending team would deem in need of an upgrade. For Atlanta, though, there needs to be greater balance, lest future commitments again tie the organization’s hands. Coppolella has said that the club will have much more to spend than usual, but a truly all-in approach would be a major surprise. What investments the team does make figure to play a fairly significant role in dictating the team’s timeline to return to true contention.

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