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2016-17 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

The Blue Jays added several veteran reinforcements to their roster and brought back franchise icon Jose Bautista, though the loss of Edwin Encarnacion may linger as a “what-if” scenario for years to come.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

When Encarnacion didn’t quickly accept the Blue Jays’ early offer of a four-year, $80MM contract, Toronto moved right on to its Plan B in another experienced slugger in Kendrys Morales.  While Morales’ numbers over the last five years don’t match Encarnacion for either consistency or sheer production, the switch-hitter has still produced above-average offensive numbers for much of his career, and is just a season removed from a .290/.362/.485 line with the world champion Royals in 2015.  Last year, Morales got off to a very slow start in the first two months before heating up to the tune of an .888 OPS over 423 PA from June 1 onward.  Interestingly, Jays GM Ross Atkins suggested that Morales could see a “good deal” of action as a first baseman, though since Morales has played just 16 games at first since the start of the 2015 season, one would suspect Morales will fill more of a primary DH role.

Adding more versatility to the lineup is Steve Pearce, signed to a two-year deal despite undergoing elbow surgery last September.  (Pearce has been limited to DH duty thus far in Spring Training but otherwise looks to be in fine condition.)  Pearce appears to be the Jays’ first choice in left field, though he has also seen time in right, first base and even second base in recent years.

While he has been particularly good against southpaws, Pearce has an overall .266/.348/.485 slash line from 2013-16, making him a solid choice as an everyday player whenever Toronto decides to use him.  Against left-handed pitching, Pearce could play first with Melvin Upton or Ezequiel Carrera handling left field.  With a righty on the mound, Pearce could play left while Justin Smoak starts at first.  Pearce could also spell Bautista in right field on occasion, or serve as a stopgap at second base if Devon Travis’ availability for Opening Day is still in doubt.

Jose Bautista (vertical)Bautista didn’t enter free agency on a high note, as he was limited to just 116 games due to injuries during his age-35 campaign.  It also didn’t help Bautista that the market for free agent hitters in general was rather a cool one this year, and while a number of teams (such as the Indians, Phillies and Orioles) were speculatively linked as interested candidates for a signing, a lack of concrete interest allowed the Jays to re-emerge as suitors in late December.

Though one mystery team reportedly offered Bautista a three-year deal worth more than $50MM, he instead rejoined the Jays for $18.5MM and just one guaranteed year.  One would think that a vintage Bautista season in 2017 will lead the slugger to decline his end of a 2018 mutual option in search of a bigger multi-year contract without the anchor of the qualifying offer weighing down his market.  If that ends up being the case, the Jays couldn’t really complain about getting one final outstanding year from one of the franchise’s greatest hitters, even if they’re no longer in line for draft compensation.

Re-signing Bautista allows the Jays to fill a need in right field, with the hope that a season of better health will allow him to provide better defense.  Bautista still hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers despite his injury woes last year, though Toronto will be hoping for more production to help make up for Encarnacion’s departure.

The Jays replaced free agents Brett Cecil and Joaquin Benoit in their bullpen by signing another pair of veterans in lefty J.P. Howell and right-hander Joe Smith.  Before signing Howell, Toronto also considered other southpaws such as Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan.  The Blue Jays did consider making a bigger expenditure on their pen, as the team had some talks with the White Sox about David Robertson.

After parting ways with Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro, the Jays addressed their backup catching needs by signing veteran Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a minor league contract.  “Salty” is the favorite to serve as Russell Martin’s understudy, while the Blue Jays made some other minor acquisitions (i.e. Juan Graterol, Mike Ohlman) to build catching depth.

On the international signing front, Toronto made a splash by signing highly-regarded Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a seven-year, $22MM deal.  The 23-year-old Gurriel hails from one of Cuba’s most respected baseball families (his father is one of Cuba’s greatest players and his older brother Yulieski plays for the Astros) and could potentially line up at several different positions around the diamond.  Gurriel is probably at least a year away from the big leagues but he stands out as an intriguing building block for the future.

Questions Remaining

Going into the offseason, there was significant doubt as to whether the Jays could re-sign either Bautista or Encarnacion, and a reunion with both seemed totally out of the question.  It seemed like the Jays themselves believed the latter scenario was true, as once Encarnacion rejected that initial offer, the team jumped to sign Morales to fill Encarnacion’s role.  As the winter went on, however, the expected frenzy for Encarnacion’s service never materialized, as the first baseman signed a three-year, $60MM deal (with a $20MM club option year) with the Indians that fell below all industry projections.

Had the Jays held off on Morales and waited perhaps just a few more weeks before re-engaging Encarnacion and agent Paul Kinzer, it’s possible Encarnacion could have ended up back in Toronto at a relative discount price.  Instead, the Jays spent $33MM on Morales (who’s only a few months younger than Encarnacion and an inferior batter with no defensive value) and $18.5MM on Bautista, who certainly wouldn’t be the first star hitter to hit a sudden decline in his late 30’s.

Given the slow-moving market for all the first base/DH types on the market, Morales himself might well have still been available at a lower price tag had the Jays not been in such a rush.  If not Morales, then a scenario certainly exists where the Blue Jays would’ve indeed managed to get the band back together by re-signing both Encarnacion and Bautista.

The Jays headed into the winter with a lineup lacking in athleticism and left-handed hitters, and those issues are still on the books as Opening Day approaches.  “Any organization would be looking to create more balance, more platoon effect and potentially more speed.  But it’s just not as easy as deciding to do that and making that happen,” Atkins said during an end-of-the-season talk with reporters.

Indeed, the Jays’ main three position-player acquisitions don’t really check any of the boxes on Atkins’ general offseason wish list.  Bautista and Pearce are both right-handed bats, while the switch-hitting Morales has better career splits as a left-handed hitter over his career but has posted a better OPS from the right side of the plate in three of the last four seasons.  While Pearce can play multiple positions, Morales is more or less a full-time DH and Bautista’s declining defensive numbers of the last two years argue that he too is best deployed as DH or first baseman at this point rather than as a regular right fielder.  Morales taking the bulk of DH at-bats also means a loss of lineup flexibility — there is now less opportunity to give Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, or Josh Donaldson a break from playing the field while still keeping their bats in the lineup.

The Jays at least checked in on a wide range of players (such as Dexter Fowler, Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Josh Reddick, Matt Wieters, Ian Desmond, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Sean Rodriguez and their own free agent Michael Saunders) who could’ve potentially been better fits from either a versatility standpoint or by adding more left-handed balance.  Signing the likes of Fowler or Desmond would’ve cost Toronto a first-round draft pick since both players rejected qualifying offers, though one could argue the Jays essentially surrendered a first-rounder anyway by re-signing Bautista, who also rejected a QO.

Atkins has stated that his “best-case scenario” is to have Pearce as the regular left fielder and Smoak as the regular first baseman.  Counting on Pearce for regular outfield duty on the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface is optimistic enough, as beyond his elbow surgery, Pearce has also hit the DL with oblique, hamstring and wrist injuries in the last four seasons.  Believing that Smoak is a late bloomer who can go from being a virtual replacement player (0.3 fWAR in his seven big league seasons) into a viable everyday option at age 30 is perhaps even more questionable.

It remains to be seen if Morales can handle enough first base time to at least spell Smoak against left-handed pitching.  If not, and Pearce or Bautista need to step in at the position, that opens up left or right field for an outfield mix that includes Upton, Carrera, Dalton Pompey, and Darrell Ceciliani.  Until Pearce is fully able to play, at least, the plan for left field appears to be an Upton/Carrera platoon (though the Jays are reportedly also looking around for outfield help).

Upton was a big disappointment after joining the Jays at the trade deadline, and, aside from a brief resurgence with the Padres, has been a below-average offensive producer in three of the last four seasons.  Carrera is a rare left-handed bat on the roster but his career numbers are actually better against southpaws than righties.

Ceciliani is another lefty bat who owns more traditional splits, though he also hasn’t shown much at the MLB level.  The switch-hitting Pompey is still an unknown quantity after struggling badly early in the 2015 season and being limited to mostly pinch-running duty in his subsequent time in the majors.  He is also currently being held out of action after suffering a concussion during the World Baseball Classic.

Still, hoping on unproven commodities like Pompey, Ceciliani, or first base prospect Rowdy Tellez underscores the lack of left-handed hitting options on Toronto’s roster.  Against a right-handed starter, the Jays’ lineup could feature just Morales, Smoak (a modest career .720 OPS against righties) and perhaps the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia as options from the left side, if Martin is on a rest day.  Signing a veteran outfield option like Angel Pagan would be an upgrade, though the Blue Jays are apparently unlikely to land Pagan.

Travis’ lingering injury problems create another potential issue at second base.  For the short term, the Jays could platoon Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins at the keystone, a scenario that would help the team keep the out-of-option Goins on the roster.  Pearce could play second in a pinch if Travis faced a lengthy DL stint, though it would seem almost a waste of Pearce’s versatility to lock him into his least-ideal position, not to mention the fact that using Pearce at second would also weaken left field and first base.

There were rumors earlier this winter that the Blue Jays would explore stretching Joe Biagini out as a starting pitcher so that the righty could go from being an unexpected bullpen breakout star to rotation depth.  The latest word, however, is that Biagini will remain in the relief corps, so the Jays are still thin on depth beyond their solid starting five of Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano.  Mike Bolsinger could fill a long relief or swingman role, with MLB veterans Mat Latos and Lucas Harrell also in camp on minor league deals and Gavin Floyd also back on a minors contract as he looks to rebound from another injury-plagued season.

Deal Of Note

This section actually addresses multiple deals of note — namely the one-year, $3MM contracts the Jays handed to Howell and Smith, plus the one-year, $7.5MM contract Benoit signed with the Phillies and the whopping four-year, $30.5MM deal Cecil landed from the Cardinals.

J.P. Howell

Toronto took a slow-play approach to its bullpen needs, which ended up being a shrewd tactic given the early explosion in relief prices.  Beyond the huge contracts given to star closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, you also saw the likes of Cecil, Mike Dunn, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Daniel Hudson and Marc Rzepczynski land multi-year commitments before the end of December.  The market slowed considerably as the winter went on, and thus the Jays landed both Howell and Smith for less than the Phils paid Benoit, let alone the massive outlay that would’ve been required to re-sign Cecil.

Obviously, several factors beyond just asking prices went into these signings (age, various teams’ particular preferences, etc.), including the fact that Howell and Smith are both coming off relative down years by their standards.  Cecil and Benoit were both better pitchers in 2016 than Howell and Smith, though the gap in performance doesn’t equal the $9MM gap in salaries the two pairs will earn in 2017.  Given Benoit’s age (39), Cecil’s rather inconsistent performance last season and the general inherent risk of paying significant money for relief pitching, one could argue the Blue Jays positioned themselves to get more bang for their buck in waiting out the market to sign Howell and Smith in February.

Overview

For the second straight offseason under Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro, the Blue Jays relied more on modest free agent signings rather than trades to upgrade the roster.  (In fact, Toronto was the only team that didn’t swing a single trade all winter.)  The Jays clearly didn’t want to surrender what it would’ve taken to acquire the likes of McCutchen, Blackmon or Granderson, be it prospects or young talent on the MLB roster.  Likewise, Atkins and Shapiro preferred to spread the Jays’ cash around rather than focus the spending on one big signing like Fowler, or what they thought it would’ve taken to re-sign Encarnacion.

Two winters of free agent acquisitions, even on non-blockbuster signings, add up; the Jays’ estimated payroll of over $162.6MM for 2017 will be the largest in franchise history.  With this big payroll in mind and the fact that the Jays focused their attention on veteran signings, the club is clearly still in win-now mode after consecutive trips to the ALCS.  For a team that has championship aspirations, however, the Jays are taking risks both in their lack of depth, and in apparently counting on underachieving players (i.e. Smoak, Upton, Carrera) to play notable roles.  There isn’t much margin for error on this roster if, say, Bautista doesn’t have a bounce-back year, or if an unexpected injury fells a cornerstone player like Donaldson.

Still, with some good minor leaguers in the system, the Jays are leaving themselves room for improvement if they need to make a trade or two at the deadline.  There’s also the possibility that the front office felt it didn’t need to make many changes to what is already a contending team, and that the combined contributions of Morales, Pearce and a revived Bautista will make up for the losses of Encarnacion and (to a lesser extent) Saunders.

What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

For the second straight winter, the biggest offseason question the Mets faced centered on whether they’d re-sign outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. And for the second straight winter, the Mets managed to prevent Cespedes from departing in free agency. As a result, he’ll once again serve as the centerpiece of New York’s lineup as the club tries to log three consecutive playoff berths for the first time in franchise history.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Mets Roster; Mets Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Aside from Cespedes, whom we’ll address on a more in-depth level later, the Mets brought back three of their other free agents in second baseman Neil Walker and relievers Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas. General manager Sandy Alderson didn’t do anything else of significance, meaning the Mets are essentially relying on the same roster they did last year. Considering the Mets fought through a rash of injuries to win 87 games and earn a wild-card spot in 2016, Alderson’s continuity-based approach could prove beneficial.

Neil Walker

One of the keys to the Mets’ success last season was Walker, whom they acquired from Pittsburgh in December 2015 for left-hander Jon Niese. That trade has already gone down as a heist for Alderson, as the perennially productive Walker had yet another quality season. Niese, whom the Mets later reacquired from the Bucs for reliever Antonio Bastardo, scuffled with both teams last year. That made it an easy decision for New York to decline Niese’s $10MM option for 2017 in November.

Walker, meanwhile, slashed .282/.347/.476 with a career-high-tying 23 home runs in 458 plate appearances and registered a personal-best 9.3 Ultimate Zone Rating as a defender. Consequently, the belief was he’d test free agency during the winter. While MLBTR projected Walker would garner a three-year, $36MM deal on the market, he ultimately eschewed an opportunity to shop his services around the majors in favor of the Mets’ $17.2MM qualifying offer.

It’s possible Walker, 31, was leery of leaving a high guarantee on the table because of the season-ending back surgery he had last September. Regardless, it seems that issue is behind him. The Mets, after all, nearly awarded Walker an extension in the three-year, $40MM neighborhood last month before talks hit a snag over his 2017 salary. So, although Walker’s long-term future is uncertain, the switch-hitter is in place to function as a linchpin in the Mets’ lineup for at least another year.

Both Blevins and Salas are back for the short term, too, albeit at much lower salaries than Walker. The bigger prize of the two is likely the 33-year-old Blevins, who was quietly great last season. Blevins pitched to a 2.79 ERA with 11.14 K/9 against 3.21 BB/9 in 42 innings and 79 appearances, during which he dominated left- and right-handed hitters alike. Relative to both his 2016 performance and the larger guarantees awarded to fellow lefty setup men like Brett Cecil (four years, $30MM), Mike Dunn (three years, $19MM) and Marc Rzepczynski (two years, $11MM) in free agency, Blevins’ contract looks quite fair for the Mets. Each of Cecil, Dunn and Rzepczynski signed fairly early in the offseason, but Blevins had to wait until February. It’s now possible he’ll work as the Mets’ primary bullpen southpaw through 2018, as his agreement includes a reasonably priced club option ($7MM) for its second and final year.

Salas also went without a contract until February, when he accepted a modest $3MM after a near-flawless showing down the stretch with the Mets last season. The team acquired Salas from the Angels on the final day of August, and he then proceeded to allow just four earned runs in 17 1/3 innings and rack up 19 strikeouts without issuing a walk. The 31-year-old was far less effective over the first five months of the season as a member of the Angels, with whom he posted a 4.47 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 56 1/3 frames. Last year was a microcosm of the inconsistent Salas’ career, which makes it a gamble (an affordable one, granted) that the Mets are looking to rely on him in a prominent late-game role this season. While the Mets’ best reliever, closer Jeurys Familia, likely serves a season-opening suspension resulting from an October domestic violence incident, they’ll turn to Addison Reed, Salas, Hansel Robles and Blevins as their top end-of-game pitchers.

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Offseason In Review Series

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Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR Offseason In Review series.  This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks, and you can find a permanent link to this index in the “Tools” dropdown menu above.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Cardinals added two top free agents this offseason and said goodbye to some longtime contributors as they tinkered with the core that won them 86 games in 2016.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • RHP Carlos Martinez: five years, $51MM (includes club options for 2022 and 2023)

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals ended the 2016 season by parting ways with a longtime star, giving the aging Matt Holliday a $1M buyout rather than exercising a $17MM option. Though he hits capably, the 37-year-old Holliday no longer provided enough offense to offset his salary and health and defensive issues. He headed to the Yankees, who can use him as a DH. The Cardinals also saw the departure of another veteran slugger, Brandon Moss, who didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the club before he ultimately landed with the Royals.

The Cardinals thus set about adding another outfielder who could bump 2016 center fielder Randal Grichuk to a corner. They were linked to a number of high-profile names, including Adam Eaton, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond, before ultimately signing Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5MM deal.

Dexter FowlerThe Cardinals’ seemingly singular focus on finding a center fielder rather than a corner outfielder initially seemed odd, since advanced stats actually identified Grichuk as a better defensive center fielder than Fowler and several of the other rumored options. UZR pegs Grichuk as being a few runs above average in about 1,200 career innings in center field, and Defensive Runs Saved is even more bullish, rating Grichuk as 14 runs above average. Both stats rate Fowler as a hair above average last year, but below average (sometimes significantly so) in the five seasons before that. Fowler will also be 31 later this month, and though his athleticism makes him likely to age relatively gracefully, his defense seems unlikely to improve as he ages and slows. The Cards reached agreement with Fowler during the Winter Meetings — relatively early in the offseason, and significantly before most of the other outfield bats signed. They also paid almost $20MM more for him than MLBTR projected he’d receive. One wonders whether they might have gotten better value had they kept Grichuk in center and signed one of the many cheaply available sluggers to join him and Stephen Piscotty in their outfield.

There was also another cost to signing Fowler, in that the Cardinals forfeited their top 2017 draft pick, No. 19 overall, to complete the signing. That loss will hurt, particularly since the team also lost its next two picks (Nos. 56 and 75) as part of its penalty for its role in the Astros hacking scandal.

Perhaps that’s overthinking it, however. The only free agent outfielder who compared favorably to Fowler in overall value was Yoenis Cespedes, who was already off the market by the time the Cards landed their man. Unlike some of the defensively challenged sluggers who languished on the free agent market, Fowler’s well-rounded game insures him somewhat against decline. At least in the short term, he should upgrade the Cardinals’ offense with his on-base ability and their defense by virtue of being significantly better than players like Holliday or Moss. And, of course, in signing Fowler, the Cardinals lured a talented player away from the rival Cubs, who replaced him with the much less costly Jon Jay.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

As they open SunTrust Park for the 2017 season, the Braves have begun to transition toward competitiveness — though they carefully avoided any lengthy veteran entanglements this winter.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

[Braves Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The pace of moves coming from the Atlanta front office remains dizzying. This time around, while there were still many forward-looking transactions, the club increasingly turned its attention to investing in the 2017 roster.

That’s not to say that the Braves went wild in a push to win now; after all, the club won only 68 games in 2016, despite a strong finish. Instead, the vast bulk of the club’s investments in veteran players are of the one-year variety. The club clearly hopes to boost its on-field product with a new park opening while steering clear of the kinds of moves that could hamper more dedicated future efforts at contending.

GM John Coppolella promised that the rotation would be the focus, and he followed through on that early. Atlanta added two of the game’s oldest players, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, on mid-priced, one-year deals. Talented lefty Jaime Garcia joined the fold, too, in a deal that cost the organization two reasonably promising pitching prospects in John Gant and Chris Ellis.

Bartolo Colon

All said, the rotation promises to be worlds better than the 2016 unit, though it’ll likely be more of a reliably solid unit than any kind of top-tier staff. With the trade rumors in the rear-view — at least until the deadline — top hurler Julio Teheran will look to repeat a strong season. High-octane righty Mike Foltynewicz seems the obvious choice for the fifth spot, and he’ll also seek to build off of the promise he showed in 2016.

The Braves would surely be glad to see that quintet succeed for a full season, though it’s possible to imagine a summer trade if the organization isn’t sticking in the postseason picture. Garcia, in particular, could hold appeal if he performs. Meanwhile, Atlanta will see whether Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims can regain their footing, while veterans such as John Danks, Andrew Albers, and perhaps old favorite Kris Medlen will take up spots in the depth department. Most importantly, perhaps, the club will closely watch the progress of touted arms as Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and the newly acquired Luiz Gohara as they plot a course for the future.

Despite all the changes in the rotation, the bullpen largely returns in its 2016 form. Jim Johnson took an extension just before reaching free agency, and he’s expected to handle closing duties. That job could be contested at some point during the year, though, particularly if Arodys Vizcaino can find his form or Mauricio Cabrera proves as overwhelming as his stuff. Josh Collmenter and Ian Krol are back after agreeing to arb deals, while Jose Ramirez also figures to have a spot locked down. Righty Chaz Roe, who showed well (11.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.60 ERA) in 20 frames after a mid-season claim, is in the mix too, though he’s struggled badly in Spring Training thus far. Rounding out the pen may come down to a camp battle involving veteran minor-league signees Eric O’Flaherty, Sam Freeman, Rex Brothers, Blaine Boyer, and perhaps also 40-man members Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris.

The Braves’ most notable moves on the position-player side came at second base. The team thought it had its man in Sean Rodriguez, who got a two-year deal after a career year in Pittsburgh, but a terrifying car crash left him with an injured shoulder and a lengthy rehab timeline. He could miss the majority of the 2017 campaign. That led the Braves to pivot back to Brandon Phillips, who was acquired for a light price and will hold down the fort at second while the team waits for top prospect Ozzie Albies to return from injury, finish his development, and join exciting young shortstop Dansby Swanson in the bigs.

While there was chatter that the Braves would pursue an upgrade behind the dish, the club ultimately passed on free agents such as Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, and the recovering Wilson Ramos. Instead, the club added Kurt Suzuki on a modest pact to join Tyler Flowers in some kind of time share. Anthony Recker remains on hand as a third option, so things are set for the time being. In the long term, though, the catching position remains one of uncertainty.

Questions Remaining

Most of the organization’s notable holes were plugged in some way, as might have been expected. But there’s plenty of variability on this roster, and there are a few areas which remain unsettled as the season draws near.

There was speculation before the offseason that Atlanta might look to upgrade at third base, where the team is set to feature Adonis Garcia. The 31-year-old has shown flashes of ability in his brief time in the majors, but he has yet to show the kind of consistency that warrants regular playing time. Garcia improved with the bat and the glove after a rough first half in 2016, though he still ended the year with a below-average .273/.311/.406 batting line and negative grades on the bases and in the field.

To be fair, parting with significant resources to add a player such as Todd Frazier (via trade) or Justin Turner (through free agency) probably wasn’t sensible from a long-term perspective. And it’s certainly possible that Atlanta foresaw a scenario where Rodriguez would have shifted to the hot corner upon the ascension of Albies, or where Garcia would give way to prospect Rio Ruiz. But the Braves could have placed a smaller bet on someone like Luis Valbuena or Trevor Plouffe to bolster the third base situation, so there were alternatives. Whether the team made the right call to give Garcia another full season of playing time remains to be seen.

The outfield, too, still seems in need of a supplemental player. Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly deserving of the vast bulk of the time in center, which he’ll surely receive (more on him below). But Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis aren’t exactly mid-prime corner options. While they’ll see the lion’s share of the time, their own value would likely be maximized if they receive regular rest.

Among the organization’s current options, veteran Emilio Bonifacio may have the inside track on such a role. He’s more of a utilityman than a true outfielder, but would generally meet the team’s reported desire for a right-handed hitter who can play center. (Bonifacio does have a good bit of MLB experience there; the switch-hitter has also traditionally fared better against southpaw pitching.) Other internal reserve possibilities, such as Micah Johnson and Adam Walker, don’t quite match the job description, and Johnson is now out of the picture in the short term anyhow after suffering a fractured wrist. There’s been some chatter that the Braves are interested in veteran Angel Pagan, though it seems the team hasn’t offered enough to draw him in.

There are broader bench questions, too. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is a rather obvious choice to earn one spot; he’ll likely spend some time spelling the team’s right-handed-hitting second and third basemen. Otherwise, light-hitting utilityman Chase d’Arnaud seems to have the inside track. If it’s d’Arnaud, Peterson, and Bonifacio to go with the second catcher, and the Braves use an eight-man pen, that doesn’t leave much in the way of offensive ability on the bench.

On the pitching side, there is certainly a fair bit of depth, and the bullpen is in solid shape. Despite all the additions to the rotation, though, that unit may not be as great an asset as might be hoped. Dickey and Colon are both over 40; while that hasn’t stopped them from being sturdy and effective to this point, there’s always the possibility of a significant fall-off given their age. Garcia carries long-term health questions and wasn’t that effective in 2016. And while there’s talent beyond that group, only Teheran has clearly established himself as a high-quality MLB starter.

It obviously wouldn’t have made much sense for the Braves to prioritize 2017 too heavily in making winter moves. But the club did dabble in the market for such quality, controllable arms as Jose Quintana and Chris Archer. Any such acquisition would’ve been a major trade that could well have required paying too high a price (quite possibly including Swanson), but clearly that kind of arm would’ve represented a more significant upgrade. The Braves will be content to roll the dice with what they have, and to keep knocking on those doors, but as presently constituted the rotation has plenty of potential to disappoint.

Deal Of Note

The rebuilding process isn’t just about securing young talent. It’s also about sorting through it and planning ahead for when it’s all available at the MLB level.

When the Braves struck the stunning deal last winter that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, much of the focus landed on Swanson — and rightfully so. But the deal also delivered Blair and the underappreciated Ender Inciarte, who many thought might be flipped.

Ender Inciarte

Inciarte, however, wasn’t dealt. And though he struggled early, he turned things on in the second half and ended up with another 3+ WAR campaign. While the Braves had another chance to weigh trade offers, the club chose instead to commit to the Super Two-eligible player this winter in the form of a five-year contract extension.

The total outlay to Inciarte — just over $30MM — is low enough that it won’t hurt too badly if the investment falls flat. That’s an unlikely outcome, as his defensive and baserunning abilities give him a fairly sturdy floor as a useful fourth outfielder even in a downside scenario.

While the Braves have been downright aggressive in hunting for high-upside players in recent years, and have also committed some near-term funds to veterans, the Inciarte deal is another kind of transaction entirely. Much like the division-rival Phillies’ nearly identical deal with Odubel Herrera, this extension represents the placement of a piece of the puzzle for seasons far beyond the present. Particularly given the most likely alternative — shopping Inciarte for yet more pre-MLB talent — the contract is as clear an indication as any that the organization is ramping up for contention.

Overview

Few will pick the Braves to make the postseason in 2017, or even to remain in the hunt as summer turns to fall. But there’s an expectation for improvement — and, perhaps, also the beginnings of some pressure. Fan expectations are rising with the new park and new player investments. Some of the organization’s hyped upper-level players are entering the phase where they will need to prove their worth in the majors or step aside. And the plans of the front office will increasingly be put to the test as the organization seeks to convert the talent it has accumulated into wins.

What’s your take on the Braves’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)


Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

Even though the Astros underwhelmed en route to 84 wins and a third-place finish in the American League West in 2016, they still entered the offseason in enviable shape. When previewing their winter in October, I wrote, “Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.” Luhnow followed through, leading PECOTA to project an AL-high 93 wins for his club this year.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Astros Roster; Astros Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The 2016 Astros featured one of the majors’ least valuable outfields, a seven-man group which compiled a woeful .224/.302/.380 batting line (good for an AL-worst 86 wRC+) in 2,187 plate appearances. Carlos Gomez, whom Houston released in August, was one of the primary reasons for the unit’s bottom-of-the-barrel output. But nearly everyone else in the septet also failed to impress (only George Springer pulled his weight), so Luhnow elected to make over the outfield during the offseason. As a result of his moves, Springer will shift from right to center after logging just 17 appearances at the latter spot over his first three seasons.

The changes started with an early November waiver claim, Nori Aoki, whom the Astros picked up from the AL West rival Mariners. At $5.5MM, Aoki should give the Astros an acceptable left field regular at a reasonable price, though the 35-year-old’s upside is limited. The Japan native has been a competent hitter since debuting stateside in 2012, having slashed .286/.353/.387 while registering a minimal strikeout rate (8 percent) in 2,670 trips to the plate. However, there’s little power to speak of – as his career ISO (.100) shows – and he’s no longer a stolen base threat. After swiping anywhere from 14 to 30 bags in each of his first four seasons, Aoki was successful on only seven of his 16 attempts a year ago. He also had an ugly season versus same-sided pitchers (.227/.299/.258), albeit only over 108 PAs. Historically, Aoki has held his own against both left- and right-handed hurlers. He has also typically been a decent defender (6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, one Defensive Run Saved), but his minus-four DRS and minus-5.5 UZR from 2016 pale in comparison to both his career numbers and the brilliant work of predecessor Colby Rasmus (20 DRS, 14.9 UZR last season). The Astros understandably said goodbye to Rasmus, however, on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he hit a meager .206/.286/.355 in 417 tries.

Aoki figures to serve as a stopgap as the Astros await the arrivals of both Kyle Tucker, who tops out at No. 19 in Baseball America’s prospect rankings, and Derek Fisher (83rd on MLB Pipeline’s list), whereas Josh Reddick will occupy a spot in the team’s outfield for the long haul. At $52MM, the right fielder is in possession of the largest contract the Astros have awarded since Jim Crane bought the franchise in 2011. Reddick debuted in earnest that year with the Red Sox and has since slashed a respectable .259/.321/.435 in 2,809 PAs while thriving in the field (54 DRS, 41.2 UZR). The lefty-swinging 30-year-old does come with troubling platoon issues, though, having batted .218/.280/.360 line in 800 PAs against same-handed pitchers. He hit a nadir in that department last year with a hideous .155/.212/.155 line over 104 trips to the plate as an Athletic and Dodger. Should that carry into this season, the Astros do have righty-hitting outfield reserves he could platoon with in Jake Marisnick and Teoscar Hernandez, though utilizing a fairly expensive player in a timeshare wouldn’t be ideal.

Brian McCann

In addition to securing Aoki and Reddick, the Astros acquired two more prominent players for their lineup in catcher Brian McCann and designated hitter Carlos Beltran. All of Aoki, Reddick, McCann and Beltran bat from the left side (Beltran’s a switch-hitter; more on him later), meaning an Astros team that went into the offseason with mostly right-handers came out with a balanced lineup. The four newcomers will complement righties in Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis.

While the power-hitting Gattis ostensibly could have taken the reins at catcher (he earned mostly positive defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner in 52 games there last year), Houston instead swung a trade for the more established McCann. In doing so, the Astros lost a couple promising arms, per FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, and subsequently saw previous starting backstop Jason Castro and his excellent pitch-framing skills head to the Twins in free agency. Nevertheless, the 33-year-old McCann isn’t exactly a slouch behind the plate, and he’s a much better offensive player than Castro. Although McCann is no longer the force he was in Atlanta, where he slashed .277/.350/.473 from 2005-13, he is coming off a three-year stretch in which he hit an above-average .232/.320/.456 with the Yankees.

Among the pitchers who will throw to McCann is Charlie Morton, who will slot into the Astros’ rotation after totaling only 17 1/3 innings last season. Then with the Phillies, Morton suffered a torn hamstring in late April and didn’t pitch again. Morton did show encouraging signs during a tiny sample of work, though, as he ran his average fastball velocity up to a personal-best 93.3 (well above his 91.5 lifetime mark) and posted a 12.3 percent swinging-strike rate (far better than his 7.8 percent career figure). The 33-year-old has since thrown even harder this spring, and if those velocity gains stick, he could be a lot more interesting than the pitcher he was with Atlanta and Pittsburgh from 2008-15. To his credit, Morton did have some strong seasons with the Pirates, and his career 55.4 percent ground-ball rate makes him a good fit for a Houston team which plays in a homer-friendly ballpark and has a quality defensive infield. The biggest concern with Morton arguably centers on health, as he wasn’t able to avoid the disabled list in any of the previous five seasons. On the other hand, the still-unsigned Doug Fister – whom Morton is replacing – was one of just two Astros who threw at least 180 innings last year.

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Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Brewers’ offseason saw them continuing to add young talent, but they also acquired several veterans who should help make them fun to watch as they integrate younger players onto their roster.

Major League Signings

1B Eric Thames: three years, $16MM (including $1M buyout on $7.5MM option for 2020)
RHP Neftali Feliz: one year, $5.35MM
LHP Tommy Milone: one year, $1.25MM (non-guaranteed)

Notable Minor League Signings

Joba Chamberlain, Ryan Webb, Eric Sogard, Ivan De Jesus Jr..

Trades And Claims

Acquired 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington and PTBNL from Red Sox for RP Tyler Thornburg
Acquired C Jett Bandy from Angels for C Martin Maldonado and RHP Drew Gagnon
Claimed 1B Jesus Aguilar from Indians
Lost RHP Miguel Diaz to Twins in Rule 5 Draft

Notable Losses

Chris Carter, Thornburg, Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano

Needs Addressed

The Brewers’ offseason mostly continued their recent trend of rebuilding what had been an aging roster, but their activity this winter also showed small signs that they’re looking toward contending in the near future.

Their first big move of the winter was to replace first baseman Chris Carter with Eric Thames, who signed a three-year, $16MM deal the same day the Brewers designated Carter for assignment, thereby avoiding taking him through the arbitration process. The Carter move was eyebrow-raising — it isn’t every day that a team drops a 41-homer hitter who’s set to receive a seemingly reasonable salary. The arbitration process, though, rewards counting stats like home runs and likely would have minimized Carter’s shortcomings, such as his strikeout and contact issues and lack of defensive value. MLBTR projected in October that Carter would receive $8.1MM through arbitration, and there are suggestions the salary might have gone higher. That sum seems paltry for a prolific home-run hitter, but the apparent ambivalence to one-dimensional power sources on this winter’s market strongly indicates that teams aren’t overly interested in sluggers who don’t bring something else to the table. The Brewers’ inability to trade Carter, as well as his eventual signing with the Yankees on a mere $3.5MM deal, suggest that the league didn’t think Carter was worth nearly as much as the arbitration process would have paid him.

Eric ThamesIn Carter’s place, the Brewers landed Thames, whose unusual background makes him an interesting and somewhat outside-the-box fit for the team’s first-base opening. Thames spent two forgettable seasons with the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2011 and 2012 before heading to the NC Dinos in South Korea, where he emerged as one of the KBO’s most fearsome sluggers. Even in a league dominated by offense, Thames’ numbers stood out — he hit 124 home runs in Korea in a mere 1,634 plate appearances. He’s also still just 30, young enough that he could have several more power-hitting seasons left in him.

There’s still very limited data on how KBO stats will translate to the Majors, and the existing precedents for prime-age sluggers point in different directions — Jung Ho Kang has been a success (his off-the-field problems notwithstanding), while Byung Ho Park’s first season was a failure. Perhaps the biggest difference between Kang and Park prior to their arrivals in the states, though, was their plate discipline. Kang had 293 strikeouts in his last three seasons in Korea, while Park had a very high 399 (including 161 in his last season there). Thames, like Kang, had 293 whiffs in his three seasons in the KBO, suggesting a balanced approach that could play well as he returns to the big leagues. The well-rounded offensive game Thames demonstrated in Korea, where he posted OBPs above .420 in all of his three seasons, also contrasts sharply with that of Carter. No one really knows how Thames’ game will play in the big leagues at this point, but the Brewers, as a rebuilding club that didn’t have an obvious fix at first, were in great position to gamble on a relative unknown.

More analysis after the break …Read more

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

You can’t really call it a “quiet” offseason when you swing perhaps the winter’s biggest blockbuster, though the Red Sox seem to be counting on internal pieces just as much as their few new faces in order to defend their AL East title.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Red Sox roster; Red Sox payroll information

Needs Addressed

After signing David Price last winter and trading for Rick Porcello in December 2014, the Red Sox made yet another offseason splash to upgrade their rotation, and arguably the biggest one yet in Chris Sale.  The southpaw has been nothing less than one of baseball’s best pitchers over the last five seasons, posting a 3.04 ERA, 5.08 K/BB rate, 10.0 K/9 and 27.6 bWAR over 1015 2/3 innings.  Not only is Sale still apparently at the top of his game heading into his age-28 season, he also offers ace production at a relative bargain price, as he is owed $12MM this year and then $12.5MM in 2018 and $13.5MM in 2019 (assuming the Sox exercise club options on those last two seasons).

Mar 6, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Sale came at a heavy prospect cost, though Boston has enjoyed such incredible minor league depth in recent years that the club could justify trading blue chippers like Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.  An established ace like Sale is naturally more help for a win-now team like the Sox than Kopech would be in the rotation, while Moncada was blocked at his natural position (second base) by Dustin Pedroia and blocked in the outfield by Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and rookie Andrew Benintendi (the consensus top prospect in baseball).  Even with the uncertainty at the hot corner, Moncada was still somewhat expendable given that prospect Rafael Devers may be a year or two away from becoming the third baseman of the future.

Speaking of third base, the Sox dealt starter Travis Shaw to Milwaukee as part of another multi-player deal that saw righty reliever Tyler Thornburg come to Fenway Park.  Thornburg enjoyed a big year out of the Brewers pen in 2016, and he is both considerably younger and harder-throwing than veterans Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler, who left in free agency.  Thornburg projects to be Craig Kimbrel’s top setup option, though Spring Training may decide if Joe Kelly has a share of that role or if the Sox could simply use both men in the eighth inning on a situational basis. (Carson Smith could factor in the late innings, too, when he finally returns from Tommy John surgery.)

Adding Sale to an already somewhat crowded rotation picture allowed the Sox to trade Clay Buchholz to the Phillies.  Injuries and inconsistency kept Buchholz from ever truly living up to expectations, though the righty certainly had his share of impressive moments over his decade in Boston.  The Red Sox chose to exercise their $13.5MM option on Buchholz last fall rather than simply let him walk, a decision that allowed the club to net some return for him when Philadelphia took on all of Buchholz’s salary and still gave up an interesting infield prospect in Josh Tobias.

The Red Sox were linked to several notable first base/DH-type sluggers to fill David Ortiz’s big shoes, but decided against pursuit of a star name. Boston instead inked Mitch Moreland to a one-year deal.  The move allows Hanley Ramirez to take most of the DH duties, as Ramirez will likely only play first when the Sox face a lefty pitcher, with Chris Young spelling Moreland in the lineup as the designated hitter.  Signing Moreland also doesn’t create a long-term roadblock at the position since the Sox think very highly of minor league first baseman Sam Travis, who missed much of last season due to a torn ACL but could reach the majors by late 2017 if he continues hitting.

Questions Remaining

It isn’t a coincidence that the Red Sox saved the bulk of their offseason business until after the new collective bargaining agreement was finalized in late November.  The new luxury tax rules were of particular importance to the team. Since the tax threshold was raised to $195MM this season, the Sox were able to emerge from the offseason a few million dollars beneath the the limit. If they can stay there through year’s end, the club can “reset its clock” in the calculation of overage penalties (which penalize repeat offenders at a higher rate, and are also more costly under the new CBA).

As a result, the offseason saw the Red Sox show some financial restraint, which annoyed some fans who felt bigger moves were necessary in the wake of Ortiz’s departure and the team’s abrupt postseason exit.  Moreland ended up being the answer at first base instead of Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran or Mike Napoli; while the Sox at least checked in on these and other notable 1B/DH names, the club chose future financial flexibility over making an “all-in” move to win in 2017.

Given the amount of core talent on the Sox roster, it can be argued that Boston didn’t really need to make such a big splash now when they’re well-positioned to contend for the next several years.  (Plus, getting under the tax threshold now will save millions, and potentially set the Red Sox up to be larger players in the star-studded 2018-19 free agent market.)  The Sox also have enough potential at their so-called question mark positions that these spots might not end up being problems at all, though there’s definitely some uncertainty in a few areas.

With Moncada, Shaw and veteran Aaron Hill all no longer third base options, the Red Sox are putting a lot of faith in Pablo Sandoval’s ability to resurrect his career after a miserable 2015 and an injury-writeoff of a 2016 campaign.  Sandoval has gotten himself in much better shape, though it’s hard to know what to expect from the Panda in the wake of two lost seasons.  If Sandoval can’t produce, the Sox could turn to Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez and/or Josh Rutledge to handle third until the trade deadline, when you’d expect Boston to be in play for such potential trade candidates as Todd Frazier of the White Sox, the Royals’ Mike Moustakas or others.

The Sox stood pat at catcher, hoping that Sandy Leon can find an acceptable balance between his scorching-hot summer performance and his ice-cold September or that Christian Vazquez can develop some hitting to go with his outstanding defense.  Former top prospect Blake Swihart is still a bit of a wild card due to his lack of a position; while he has the most value to the Sox if he can get a foothold as a catcher, Swihart developed a problem throwing balls back to the mound during spring camp.  Needless to say, Swihart’s future as a catcher is still a work in progress, and he might end up spending much of 2017 at Triple-A working on his defense and making sure he’s fully recovered from his season-shortening ankle injury.

Price and the Red Sox received a big scare early in Spring Training when Price was shelved with elbow soreness, though fears of Tommy John surgery were allayed when the lefty was diagnosed with bone spurs and a mild flexor strain.  Still, Price won’t throw for a couple of weeks and will almost certainly begin the season on the DL, which underscores a potential lack of depth in the Sox rotation.

Even with Price healthy, the three-pitcher battle between Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez over the final two rotation spots carried its share of question marks.  All three of those starters had injury issues in 2016, with Pomeranz and Wright perhaps the most concerning of the trio — Wright pitched just ten innings after August 9 due to a shoulder injury and Pomeranz received a stem cell injection in his throwing elbow after the season to battle some recurring soreness in the joint.  It’s also worth noting that Wright and Pomeranz didn’t have much of a track record of success as starters prior to 2016 and Rodriguez has only shown flashes of his vast potential during his brief MLB career.

It’s probably unlikely that all three will struggle (be it from injuries or just poor performance) this season, though there’s suddenly much less room for error if Price ends up with a significant DL stint.  Looking at the farm, the Red Sox could turn to Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson or Henry Owens, plus veteran Kyle Kendrick was signed to a minor league deal.  While none of these names offer much in the way of stability, the fact that Boston has so many arms in the upper minors made it difficult for the club to attract much in the way of reliable veteran depth this winter.

Deal Of Note

While obviously no one expects Moreland to replicate Ortiz’s stunning production, Moreland has some dependability issues even as a platoon bat.  The left-handed hitting Moreland has only been a solid (.258/.321/.457) rather than a standout performer against right-handed pitching over his career, and he managed just a .700 OPS against righty pitching last season.  He enjoyed a big 2015 season that saw him hit .278/.330/.482 with 23 homers and a 117 wRC+ over 515 PA for the Rangers, but apart from that career year, Moreland has generated just 2.7 bWAR over his 641 career games played outside of the 2015 season.

As noted, however, there was sound financial logic behind Boston’s decision to sign Moreland instead of a pricier first base bat.  On the field as well, Moreland makes sense as both a big defensive upgrade and a doorway to lineup flexibility.  Moreland won a Gold Glove last year, posting a 9.2 UZR/150 and +7 Defensive Runs Saved that were far beyond Ramirez’s below-average grades in both metrics.  By improving their first base defense, the Red Sox are guarding their infield against a probable defensive dropoff at third, as Shaw exhibited some very good glovework at the hot corner.

While more and more teams have preferred to rotate players through their DH spot in recent years in order to keep everyone fresh, the Sox didn’t really have that luxury due to Ortiz (though his bat more than made up for such drawbacks).  While Ramirez will be the DH most days, the Red Sox can also give veterans like Pedroia or Sandoval a break while still keeping them in the lineup.

Even if Moreland has another blah year at the plate, the Red Sox will be satisfied if he can continue wielding a strong first base glove.  While Sox fans may cringe whenever, say, Encarnacion or Beltran go yard for the Indians or Astros, they may also appreciate that Ortiz’s “replacement” (from an overall value standpoint, not hitting-wise) is actually in left field.  Boston received a combined -0.1 bWAR out of the left field position in 2016, and everyone in baseball expects far more than that from the highly-touted Benintendi.

Overview

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has historically been pretty bold about using young talent as trade chips, and the Sale deal goes near the top of the list of Dombrowski’s trades of prospects for established talent.  As much as Sale, Thornburg or Moreland could be the final pieces of the puzzle, however, this season could be defined by how some players can solidify any weak spots on the roster.  Scenarios like Benintendi living up to the hype, Price returning from injury with no ill effects, at least two of the three rotation candidates firmly earning the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs or Sandoval recapturing some of his old Giants form would go a long way towards a deeper postseason run for the Sox.

What’s your take on the Red Sox’ winter? (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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This is the first entry in MLBTR’s annual Offseason In Review series. We’ll be reviewing the other 29 clubs over the next several weeks as the season approaches.

The Pirates were at the center of multiple potential blockbuster trade rumors this winter, but none of the rumored deals came to fruition. Now, Pittsburgh looks poised to enter the 2017 with a familiar core while several young talents hope to cement themselves as big league contributors.

Major League Signings

RHP Ivan Nova: three years, $26MM (re-signed)
RHP Daniel Hudson: two years, $11MM
RHP Lisalverto Bonilla: Major League contract (later lost on waivers to Reds)

Notable Minor League Signings

Eury Perez, Jason Stoffel, Josh Lindblom, Casey Sadler (re-signed), Angel Sanchez (re-signed)

Trades And Claims

Acquired IF Phil Gosselin from Diamondbacks for RHP Frank Duncan
Acquired RHP Pat Light from Twins for PTBNL or cash
Selected LHP Tyler Webb from Yankees in Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

LHP Wade LeBlanc: one year, $750K, plus $1.25MM 2018 option or $50K buyout

Notable Losses

Neftali Feliz, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, Jeff Locke, Ryan Vogelsong

Needs Addressed

Despite being connected to trade talks involving star lefty Jose Quintana throughout the winter, the Pirates’ offseason was generally a conservative one, designed to retain and augment the team’s top assets rather than adding more top assets to join them. That’s not to say, though, that their winter failed to prepare them for the upcoming season. The Bucs will have their work cut out for them as they attempt to compete with the Cubs again this year — that would be a tough assignment for any team, really. Still, there’s reason to think they can improve on their 78-win 2016 total, perhaps dramatically so if things go right.

The Bucs’ 2016 season was full of disappointments, particularly in their rotation. Ace Gerrit Cole couldn’t stay healthy and failed to build on his outstanding 2015. Francisco Liriano was a disaster, and he ended up heading to Toronto in a dubious August trade. Jon Niese, acquired prior to the season for a quality second baseman in Neil Walker, was a mess, posting a 4.91 ERA in Pittsburgh before heading back to New York. And Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong, perhaps somewhat predictably, failed to pick up the slack. The Bucs’ rotation, formerly one of the team’s strengths, finished fifth-worst in the NL with a 4.67 ERA.

The disappointments extended to the lineup, where the Pirates got less than they were probably hoping for from Francisco Cervelli, Josh Harrison and John Jaso. By far the Bucs’ biggest disappointment, though, was Andrew McCutchen. The former MVP batted a mere .256/.336/.430 and looked markedly slower than he had in the past. His declining speed was a factor in his horrific -18.7 UZR and -28 DRS, with both statistics marking him as easily the worst regular center fielder in the game.

There’s reason to think the Pirates can avoid some of 2016’s troubles, even though they made few big on-paper moves. In the rotation, they re-signed Ivan Nova, who pitched better than he ever had after heading their way at the 2016 trade deadline. (More on Nova below.) They can also hope for a full, healthy season from Cole, and they should continue to receive help from a burgeoning group of young pitchers that includes Jameson Taillon (who had a strong rookie season in 2016), Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and, if he can improve his control, top prospect Tyler Glasnow.

Andrew McCutchenThis offseason, the Pirates first attempted to address the McCutchen issue by trading him. The superstar has only one guaranteed year left on his contract, plus a team option for 2018, and with top prospect Austin Meadows on the way and Starling Marte looking like a far better defensive center fielder than McCutchen, McCutchen seemed like an increasingly strained fit in Pittsburgh. The Bucs were repeatedly connected to the Nationals as a potential trade partner, with the Nats reportedly offering pitchers Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning, plus another player. Those plans were scuttled when the Nationals traded Giolito, Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton instead. It then appeared the Pirates would keep McCutchen, and though there were whispers about other teams (including the Mets and Blue Jays) having interest, the Bucs never seemed all that likely to trade him once their talks with the Nationals fell through.

So the Pirates will keep McCutchen, at least for now, and they’ll head into 2017 with a new plan for how to use him. While McCutchen’s 2016 season was disappointing, he did end it well, batting .284/.381/.471 over the season’s final two months. It remains to be seen whether he can retain that pace going forward, of course. But the Pirates also addressed his defensive struggles by changing their outfield alignment — the very capable Marte will man center field going forward, with Gregory Polanco in left and McCutchen in right. McCutchen has a weak arm, suggesting that right field is an odd fit, but right field in PNC Park is small. Also, McCutchen is better at going to his right than to his left, suggesting that he could fare decently in right by staying relatively near the foul line.

The Bucs also addressed their bullpen, which had been depleted by the losses of Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline and Neftali Feliz to free agency, by signing Daniel Hudson to a two-year deal. Hudson produced a 5.22 ERA with the Diamondbacks last season, but his peripherals were somewhat more promising than that, and his fastball averaged 96 MPH in his second full year back from his second Tommy John surgery. He shares his good velocity, extensive injury history and modest recent performance record with pre-2016 Feliz, who had a successful comeback season with the Pirates last year.

More analysis after the break …Read more

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