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Quick Hits: Rockies, Royals, Morales, Gordon, Zobrist, Cuba

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The Rockies should look at the Royals’ model of success, opines Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Both teams are mid-market clubs so they share the same constraints. In today’s game, that often means they can’t compete for top or even mid-tier free agents. Royals GM Dayton Moore told Saunders “You have to continually make the transition with two or three impact players [from the farm system], every single year. That means a position player, a starter and a bullpen piece.” Additionally, bold trades like the swap of Troy Tulowitzki are necessary too. The Rockies received Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco in the deal. While Reyes is the most recognizable name, the trade was all about the three pitching prospects. Colorado absolutely must solve their rotation woes if they want to field a consistently good club.

  • The Royals success in the middle of the free agent market may be the trait rival teams attempt to replicate this offseason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. We’ve already heard about numerous ways other clubs hope to emulate the Royals with athleticism, defense, and an elite bullpen as oft cited details. However, the club also brought in eight productive free agents for just $35.875MM. With a deep and talented free agent pool this offseason, we may see clubs eschew top targets like Jason Heyward in favor of multiple additions (Sherman lists Gerardo Parra, Darren O’Day, and Marco Estrada as an example).
  • Kansas City did get lucky in one regard, per Sherman. Their top target for designated hitter was Torii Hunter. Had he signed with the Royals, they would not have pursued Kendrys Morales. Instead, the former Angel and Twin led the club with 22 home runs and 106 RBI.
  • Sherman also notes that the Royals hope to re-sign Alex Gordon and Ben Zobrist. The club will not pursue Johnny Cueto.
  • The U.S. government and Major League Baseball have been working on a new system for would-be Cuban defectors to reach America, writes Michael S. Schmidt and Julie Hirschfeld of the New York Times. Presently, Cuban players usually have to survive dangerous journeys in order to defect. Smugglers often take a large percentage the player’s initial contract as payment. While creating a transparent process for moving from the Serie Nacional to state-side professional baseball would solve a human rights issue, there are still barriers. Most notably, any payment to the Cuban government would violate the U.S. trade embargo with the island. Any typical compensation scheme would either directly or indirectly send money to the Cuban government.

Cafardo On Kapstein, Amaro, Mattingly, Zobrist, Kapler

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In his latest column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discussed the role of former Red Sox advisor Jeremy Kapstein. Newly installed club president Dave Dombrowski did not extend Kapstein’s contract. The former player agent had worked with the Red Sox for 14 years as a senior advisor of baseball projects. Kapstein once represented a number of top players and was among the first to use statistics in arbitration cases. He’ll seek a new role elsewhere.

Here’s more from the column:

  • Freshly minted first base and outfield coach Ruben Amaro Jr. is already familiar with many of Boston’s outfielders. While with the Phillies, he pursued Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and prospect Manuel Margot in trade negotiations for Cole Hamels. Former Phillies closer Brad Lidge noted that Amaro was comfortable spending time in the clubhouse with players, so he should adjust well to his new role.
  • Don Mattingly is the Marlins eighth manager in the last six seasons. The last manager, Dan Jennings, was recently let go after he was told he would return to his former job as GM. The club owes him about $2MM. Mattingly is said to have agreed to a four-year deal although financial details have yet to be disclosed. Marlins fans may recall the four-year, $10MM contract signed by Ozzie Guillen prior to 2012. It serves as a warning to Mattingly that a long term of contract or high AAV will not ensure job security in Miami.
  • As reported earlier this week, Ben Cherington has joined the sports management program at Columbia University. That hasn’t stopped the Pirates from pursuing him for a front office role. Cafardo wonders if Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro might show interest too. In my opinion, the Blue Jays job might not be a fit since Cherington walked away from a similar situation in Boston.
  • One AL executive worries about Ben Zobrist’s age. “Ben is 35 years old. He keeps in great shape and does the job, but he’s not someone you’re going to devote big dollars to over a long-term deal.” Of course, his agent, Alan Nero, believes a three or four-year deal should be well within reach. Nero and the Royals have not discussed an extension.
  • The Orioles will bring back pitching coach Dave Wallace. According to a source, manager Buck Showalter asked him to stay. The Orioles pitching staff had a rough season after outperforming their peripherals for a few years. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The club also has to carefully manage top prospect Dylan Bundy. He’s missed most of the last three seasons after making a couple relief appearances as a 19-year-old in 2012. He’ll be out of options.
  • Team sources label Gabe Kapler has the leading candidate for the Dodgers managerial job. Kapler “speaks the same language” as president Andrew Friedman and they have an established working relationship. While Kapler has not managed in the majors, he “drew rave reviews” while managing with the Red Sox Single-A affiliate.

Rays Notes: Payroll, Archer, Bloom

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The Rays have noticed the Royals’ aggressive approach at the plate, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman noted the past trend towards plate patience which aimed at knocking out the opposing starter as early as possible. Now teams have taken a more aggressive tack in response to elite bullpens. “Today bullpens are incredibly formidable and a number of teams are adjusting and taking a more aggressive approach throughout and trying to hit the strikes they see.”

Here’s more from the Rays:

  • Topkins expects the Rays payroll to decline in 2016. He views the $72MM spent in 2015 as a ceiling. Since the club has 11 arbitration eligible players, it would seem they may need to cut costs in other areas. Asdrubal Cabrera’s one-year, $7.5MM deal is the only major contract coming off the books.
  • By qualifying for Super Two status, Rays ace Chris Archer has locked in a $25.5MM guarantee. Archer signed a six-year contract extension at the start of the 2014 season. If he had failed to qualify for arbitration this offseason, the guarantee on his deal would have reduced to $20MM.
  • Rays vice president Chaim Bloom is expected to remain with the club after interviewing for a couple open GM positions. However, Bloom has been increasingly linked to GM openings, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jays considered him with regard to their newly vacated position. That’s only my speculation. The Rays are also likely to promote internally to fill the position left by former director of pro scouting Matt Arnold.

Poll: Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer

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If you aren’t associated with the Rangers in some way, chances are you haven’t wondered if starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo would merit a qualifying offer. Once a promising pitching prospect, Gallardo now features an unimpressive 90 mph fastball, 5.91 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. In an age of power and pristine strikeout-to-walk ratios, Gallardo is easy to overlook. The Rangers reportedly plan to make the $15.8MM qualifying offer. But should they?

Statistically, there are a few angles to address. The 29-year-old has posted 2.0 to 2.6 fWAR in each of the last four seasons. That’s right around league average. It may feel off, but a relatively young, league average pitcher is generally worth around $12MM to $16MM a year on the free agent market. For example, Ervin Santana inked a four-year, $54MM deal with the Twins last offseason. Santana isn’t a perfect comp because he was coming off a 2.9 WAR season and has a flashier arsenal. He also had a much shakier track record.

Gallardo doesn’t eat innings like a top pitcher. In some ways, that’s both a positive and a negative. The Rangers were able to able to get the most out of him by removing him early. Only five of his 33 starts lasted more than six innings. Ten of his starts ran just five or fewer frames.

That usage put extra pressure on a shaky Rangers bullpen, but it also probably allowed him to post a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 innings. He had a 4.00 FIP based on his strikeout, walk, and home run rates. FanGraphs also tracks an ERA-based WAR called RA9-WAR. By that measure, Gallardo contributed over four wins to the Rangers’ season.

This brings to mind two important questions. Can Gallardo be easily managed by limiting the length of his starts? Evidence suggests he can, but the results are inconclusive. Additionally, how much does the extra strain on the bullpen detract from Gallardo’s value to his club? Obviously, that’s a very club dependent question. A team with a deep, talented bullpen might like using him in a short outing while clubs with less relief depth will prefer longer starts.

The evidence presented says that Gallardo is an unexciting, automatic qualifying offer candidate. However, there are signs that his stuff is on the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons from 9.00 K/9 in 2012 to a middling 5.91 K/9 last year. His velocity is also down, and he may have experienced a lucky season with regard to his HR/FB rate. He continues to post a high ground ball rate, but he’s shown no signs of developing the excellent command that allows a Mark Buehrle or Brandon McCarthy to thrive.

Every year, a few players are hurt by the qualifying offer designation (refer back to Ervin Santana). Gallardo is exactly the kind of pitcher who could find it difficult to sign with a new club if he turns down the qualifying offer. He’s entering his age 30 season with a multi-year decline in stuff and peripherals. Despite health and consistent league average production, he doesn’t offer clubs much hope for upside.

Ultimately, I still think the worst case scenario for Gallardo is somewhere around a three-year, $28MM contract. Obviously, he could still sign for much more too. If the Rangers are happy to pay him $15.8MM on a one-year contract, then they have no cause for concern either way. But at some point, a player is going to bet on themselves by taking the higher AAV.

Quick Hits: GMs, Johnson, Honeycutt

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GM Alex Anthopoulos’ departure from the Blue Jays’ GM job is connected to the phenomenon of “title inflation” thoughout the industry, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. Previously, the GM was typically the top executive in charge of baseball personnel decisions, but increasingly, teams are hiring former GMs to be presidents of baseball operations, to whom GMs report. For example, Theo Epstein is the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, while Jed Hoyer is their GM. The Red Sox, Dodgers and several other teams have similar arrangements. In Anthopoulous’ case, the Blue Jays are replacing former president Paul Beeston with Mark Shapiro, who was formerly the Indians’ GM. Under Beeston, who did not have a baseball operations background, Anthopoulos had a great deal of authority to make player personnel moves. The Blue Jays have denied that the nature of Anthopoulos’ job would have changed under Shapiro, and there appear to have been personality differences between Anthopoulos and Shapiro that contributed to Anthopoulos’ decision to leave. One potential portion of the problem, though, likely was the perception (or reality) that the Blue Jays installed a baseball operations employee above Anthopoulos. As Cameron notes, it’s becoming increasingly common for teams to do just that, reducing the power of GMs for a dozen organizations around the game. Perhaps, Cameron suggests, Anthopoulos’ position with his next club could be president of baseball operations. Here’s more from around the game.

  • Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson was unharmed in a carjacking yesterday in Florida, Florida Today reports (hat tip: CBS Sports’ David Brown). Johnson was with a group of people at a convenience store when the accused assailant allegedly approached a member of Johnson’s party, demanded the keys to the vehicle in which Johnson was riding, and shot a bullet into the ground, a fragment of which hit one of Johnson’s companions in the leg. Gould was then arrested after a high-speed chase. Johnson, who MLB.com currently ranks the Sox’ fourth-best prospect, is coming off a successful season at Triple-A Pawtucket and made his big-league debut in July.
  • Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt is about to sign an extension with to stay with the Dodgers, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi reports (Twitter links). The plan is for Honeycutt to remain as a pitching coach for two more seasons, then transition into a special assistant role. The Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly recently parted ways, of course, but the Dodgers hope that retaining Honeycutt will help the team ease the transition to a new manager.

Indians Notes: Coaches, Payroll

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The Indians are keeping Terry Francona’s entire big-league coaching staff for 2016, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. That means they’ll retain bench coach Brad Mills, pitching coach Mickey Callaway, hitting coaches Ty Van Burkleo and Matt Quatraro, first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr., third base coach Mike Sarbaugh and bullpen coach Jason Bere for next season. The White Sox contacted Alomar about their bench coach job this offseason, but he declined to pursue the job and signed a two-year extension, plus an option for a third year, to remain in Cleveland. Here’s more on the Indians.

  • The Indians don’t have much money available for splashy free agent signings this offseason, so they’ll need to look to the trade market to upgrade, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com tweets. It should, perhaps, be noted that the Indians only have about limited obligations for 2016 after having an Opening Day payroll around $88MM last season. Some of the difference will be used to cover salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but they could still have over $20MM to work with this offseason if they’re going to get back to the $88MM range by Opening Day. (Whether $88MM will represent the Opening Day target for next season, of course, remains to be seen, and the answer might depend somewhat on how the team accounts for the money and contracts changing hands in last summer’s complex Michael Bourn/Nick Swisher/Chris Johnson deal.) That won’t allow them to be bidders for top free agents, but it would allow them at least a bit of flexibility on the free agent market. Of course, they could conceivably use that flexibility to take on salary in a trade as well.
  • The Indians haven’t had the recent run of success the Royals have had, Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com writes. One reason for that, though, is that the Indians mostly also haven’t been as bad as the Royals were from 1997 through 2012, when they lost 90-plus games 12 times. That disastrous stretch netted the Royals a number of top draft picks, which they used to acquire players like Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Zack Greinke (who they later traded for a package that included Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar). The Indians, meanwhile, have quietly had three straight winning seasons, and they’ve lost 90 or more games only four times since 1997.

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes

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Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

  • Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
  • The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
  • The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
  • The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.

NL Notes: Young, Honeycutt, Green, Phillies

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The Dodgers nearly signed pitcher Chris Young to a minor league deal last offseason, but he signed a $675K big-league deal with the Royals instead and is now set to start Game 4 of the World Series, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports notes. Young had an effective regular season and has been even better thus far in the playoffs. The extremely cheap signing has been a boon for the Royals and might have been one for the Dodgers as well, Morosi says, arguing that it’s strange the Royals were able to get him so cheaply after he pitched 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA in 2014. As Morosi notes, Young’s 86-MPH fastball likely had something to do with that. I’d add that Young’s unimpressive 2014 peripherals (5.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 22.3% ground ball rate) were also likely a factor. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Dodgers are negotiating with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt on a multi-year contract to keep him with the team, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. There’s a possibility Honeycutt could join departing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly with the Marlins, but Honeycutt has been with the Dodgers through several managerial changes, and keeping him would help the organization maintain “continuity” for the team as it chooses Mattingly’s successor.
  • The process of interviewing for a big-league managerial position is a grueling one, new Padres manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “The first interview, I spent about 2 1/2 hours with one group, then about 2 1/2 hours with another group. They flew me back in, and I spent 14 hours, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. It was a relentless barrage of people,” says Green. “Then they flew in a couple days ago, A.J. [Preller] and Josh Stein, met my family. After my wife and kids went to bed, they fired off three more hours of questions. So they did their due diligence.” Green also shares his thoughts regarding dealing with expectations as a big-league manager, noting that building a winning team requires putting a process in place, and that having expectations in and of itself does little to help a team reach its goals.
  • The Mets’ rise is bad news for the Phillies, in that the Mets’ strong core of starting pitching is set to be around for awhile, Mike Sielski of the Inquirer writes. But the Phillies won’t have the same payroll restrictions the Mets have had, Sielski notes, so it shouldn’t take the Phillies as long as it took the Mets to turn what’s already a good Phillies collection of young talent into a winning team.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Wieters, Nationals, Chen

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Blue Jays chairman Edward Rogers says the team made a serious effort to keep now-departed GM Alex Anthopoulos, and that Anthopoulos’ role with the team would not have been significantly different following the arrival of new president Mark Shapiro, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “[J]ust reading a lot of the press, there was a notion that in his renewal offer, somehow his job had changed. His job had not changed at all,” says Rogers. “His direct manager will change, but his breadth of scope and responsibility had not changed. We had full confidence in him.” Rogers notes that the Jays tried to reassure Anthopoulos about their change in leadership by offering him a long-term extension but allowing him to depart after a year if he wanted. “Our notion was let’s try it for a year and see if that would have worked,” Rogers says. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Jays had promised to give Shapiro final decision-making authority in decisions about player acquisitions and departures. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Nationals have been linked to free agent Matt Wieters, but a source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the team is not interested in signing him. Incumbent Nats catcher Wilson Ramos is coming off a miserable .229/.258/.358 season, Wieters’ agent Scott Boras has plenty of Nationals clients, and the catching market is thin, but it sounds like the Nats could look elsewhere to address the position. Kubatko notes that the Braves are a more logical destination for Wieters, who has a residence in the Atlanta area.
  • It would make sense for the Orioles to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually be able to re-sign him, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. Chen has been effective, and the Orioles need pitching and likely won’t pursue the very top free agents. The 30-year-old Chen will likely get a five-year deal, however, and the O’s will likely be reluctant to make a commitment of that length. There’s a good chance Chen will end up with a West Coast team.

Week In Review: 10/24/15 – 10/30/15

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Here’s a look back at last week at MLBTR.

Key Moves

  • Twins outfielder Torii Hunter has retired.
  • The Padres hired Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green to be their next manager.
  • The Marlins dismissed GM/manager Dan Jennings and intend to hire Don Mattingly as their next manager.
  • The Nationals will hire former Padres manager Bud Black to be their next skipper.
  • The Phillies named Matt Klentak their next GM.
  • GM Alex Anthopoulos left the Blue Jays.

Options

Trades

Top Prospect Promotions

Claims

Designated For Assignment

Outrights

Key Minor League Signings

Other

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