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Free Agent Stock Watch: John Lackey

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For all of the talk about the top names on the 2015-16 free agent market — and there are quite a few, with David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and many others seeing their contracts expire — John Lackey’s strong season has flown largely under the radar.

Aug 15, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher John Lackey (41) waves to fans as he leaves the game against the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps due to his age — Lackey will pitch next season at age 37 — Lackey hasn’t generated the amount of fanfare that his younger peers have enjoyed, but the veteran right-hander has turned in a stellar platform campaign which can serve as the basis for perhaps one final, sizable multi-year contract.

Lackey’s contractual status for 2015 has been well-publicized; the Tommy John surgery he underwent now more than three years ago triggered a clause in his five-year, $82.5MM contract that tacked on a club option at the league minimum. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that Lackey and the Cardinals agreed to add some incentives to the deal, so Lackey will take home a little more than $2MM in 2015 based on innings pitched. It’s an upgrade from his league-minimum base salary, but it’s hardly a payday that is commensurate with the outstanding results turned in by Lackey in his first full season in the National League.

Lackey has, at present, thrown an even 200 innings this season and worked to a 2.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a characteristically solid, if unspectacular 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric indicators such as FIP (3.57), xFIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.02) all feel that Lackey has benefited from some good fortune — more specifically his atypical 81.7 percent strand rate. Lackey’s stranded runners at about a 73 percent clip in his career, and abnormal strand rates — whether on the high or low side — have a tendency to regress toward a pitcher’s career rate.

Even if Lackey’s true talent is more of a mid- to upper-3.00 ERA pitcher, however, there’s unquestionably a market for durable, playoff-tested starters that can be penciled in for 30+ starts each season. Lackey looks every bit that part, even with some ERA regression. Over the past three seasons, Lackey’s averaged 30 starts/196 innings per season (those numbers, of course, will go up, as he has a few remaining turns in 2015) and worked to a cumulative 3.37 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of roughly 45 percent. Those peripheral stats are near-mirror images of his 2015 performance, and his average fastball velocity has remained consistent as well, sitting at 91.7 mph or 91.6 mph in each of those seasons.

Lackey may not be a true ace like Price or Zack Greinke, and he may not have the ceiling of some of his second-tier peers such as Scott Kazmir or possess the pure stuff of a Jeff Samardzija. But, what he does bring to the table is a recent history of consistently above-average innings, and that ability has proven to be lucrative in recent years, even for aging pitchers.

Bronson Arroyo landed a two-year, $23.5MM contract from the D-Backs based largely on his ability to rack up league-average innings year after year. Lackey doesn’t have the string of 200+ inning seasons that Arroyo did, but he’s also turned in far better recent results and has historically been a superior pitcher. Tim Hudson landed the same type of contract heading into his age-38 season. Lackey will be a year younger and coming off a brilliant 200-inning season, whereas Hudson didn’t pitch in the final two months of the 2013 campaign due to a fractured ankle. Beyond that, the overall strength of the free agent market has grown a bit since those deals were signed.

Lackey should be able to find, at minimum, a two-year contract with a stronger average annual value than Arroyo and Hudson, but a three-year deal wouldn’t be shocking. His agents at Octagon could very well aim for the sky and seek a deal similar to Derek Lowe’s precedent-setting four-year pact at the age of 37, but that outcome seems unlikely. Barring an injury or complete meltdown in his final few starts and/or the postseason, Lackey is poised for a significant payday — perhaps one that’s larger than many would’ve expected based on his age.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Heyman’s Latest: Samardzija, GMs, Ozuna, Managers, Giants, Iwakuma

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Despite a terrible second half following up what had been an already underwhelming season, multiple executives tell Jon Heyman of CBS Sports that they expect White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija to do just fine in free agency. As has been said on many occasions, scouts love Samardzija’s raw stuff and competitive nature, and as Heyman points out he’s a relatively low-mileage arm due to his days as a wide receiver and time spent in the bullpen early in his MLB career. Two execs told Heyman they expect Samardzija to top Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract, with one saying he should “blow it away.” Unsurprisingly, Heyman hears that the Sox will extend a qualifying offer to Samardzija. I’ll join Heyman and the execs to whom he spoke in saying I’d be shocked to see Samardzija accept.

More from Heyman’s latest Inside Baseball column…

  • Frank Wren is seen as a likely hire for Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, though Heyman notes that Wren may receive a role other than GM. Turning to other GM openings, Heyman lists Jerry Dipoto as the favorite for the Mariners’ GM gig and calls current A’s assistant GM Dan Kantrovitz a favorite for the Brewers. Milwaukee is said to be seeking someone who is extremely analytical, and they’ve felt that some who have interviewed haven’t fit that description well enough. Billy Eppler is still the favorite for the Angels’ slot, Heyman writes. He doesn’t list a favorite for the Phillies, though he again connects Angels AGM Matt Klentak and Royals AGM J.J. Picollo to the position. Also according to Heyman, Ben Cherington turned down an interview with the Mariners, as his current plan is to take some time away from the rigors of GM work.
  • Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald recently wrote that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is very open to trading Marcell Ozuna, but president of baseball operations Michael Hill expressed a desire to keep the talented-but-struggling center fielder when speaking to Heyman. “He’s extremely talented and very much in our plans moving forward,” said Hill, although such a line is to be expected from an on-record executive anyway. Even if the intent is to shop Ozuna, Hill wouldn’t come out and say it.
  • Nationals skipper Matt Williams is “all but assured of a pink slip” following the season barring a miraculous playoff surge, per Heyman. On the opposite end of the spectrum is interim Phillies manager Pete Mackanin, who looks like he’ll be given a chance to shed the “interim” portion of his title in 2016. Brad Ausmus is indeed expected to be let go by the Tigers following the season, he also writes, and Ausmus could find himself in the dugout for the Padres if that comes to pass.
  • The Giants hope to add at least one, if not two starting pitchers this offseason, and a run at retaining Mike Leake appears to be one possible scenario. San Francisco is expected to work out a reunion with Tim Lincecum as well, he adds; the two-time Cy Young winner had hip surgery that ended his season earlier this month, though his surgeon strongly believes that the operation will help Lincecum restore some of his disappearing velocity.
  • Mariners ownership and those remaining in the front office want Hisashi Iwakuma back, so much so that they told other clubs at the deadline that they wouldn’t even consider trading him, Heyman writes. Iwakuma is keen on returning to Seattle as well, he notes. Of course, a run at Iwakuma would have to align with the thinking of whichever new executive steps into the GM’s chair.
  • Not that there should’ve been any doubt, but Heyman notes that the Blue Jays intend to pick up the club options on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. That’s hardly a surprise, as the respective $10MM and $14MM options on the right-handed sluggers are probably two of the easiest option decisions you’ll ever see.
  • Joel Hanrahan isn’t in a rush to return from his second TJ surgery and may not attempt to pitch in the Majors again until 2017. Best of luck to Hanrahan, who has seen injuries destroy the past three seasons of his career.

NL East Notes: Minaya, Marlins, Phillies, Storen

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Though many felt that Omar Minaya left the Mets with a barren farm system and more than deserved his dismissal as GM in 2010, Michael Powell of the New York Times notes that many of the Mets’ key contributors in 2015 are from the Minaya regime. Minaya tells Powell that he takes pride in knowing that he helped lay the groundwork for the team’s current success, noting that he still gets excited seeing players like Jeurys Familia and Hansel Robles succeed. As Powell points out, those two pitchers, along with Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, Juan Lagares, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Jon Niese were all signed or drafted during Minaya’s time as GM. Minaya defers much of the credit to scouts such as Ismael Cruz, Rudy Terrasas, Ramon Pena and Larry Izzo, but the now-former GM nonetheless deserves credit for some of the talent he left for successor Sandy Alderson. “You’re just happy to be part of something that is working today; a story is not written by one man,” said Minaya, who is now a senior adviser to MLBPA executive director Tony Clark. “If I said I always knew all these kids would be this good, I’d be lying.”

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • The Marlins are playing for more than pride and third place in the NL East, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Though the playoffs, of course, are not a possibility for Miami, the team’s performance over the final 16 games could help shape the front office and owner Jeffrey Loria’s course of action this offseason. Frisaro notes that it’s “no secret” that the club is willing to trade Marcell Ozuna, but a dismal finish to the year could potentially leave the front office convinced that further changes are required and thusly place even more players on the trade block.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com spoke with Baseball America’s John Manuel about the pitchers that could be waiting for the Phillies at the top of next year’s June draft. As Salisbury notes, incoming president Andy MacPhail is known as a “pitching guy” and has in the past been quoted as saying, “Buy the bats. Grow the arms.” Manuel tells Salisbury that among single-digit picks in next year’s draft (i.e. those chosen picks 1 through 9), pitching is a strength. Florida left-hander A.J. Puk, high school lefty Jason Groome and high school right-hander Riley Pint make up the top three arms in next year’s draft class, Manuel tells Salisbury. Those interested in the Phillies and in next year’s draft will surely want to give the column a lengthier look.
  • Drew Storen expressed regret to reporters, including MLB.com’s Ben Raby, over his actions that led to a fractured thumb that will end his season. The displaced Nationals closer Storen broke the finger when slamming a locker door after surrendering a two-run homer to Yoenis Cespedes. “Obviously, I was a little frustrated with my outing, but I had no intention [of causing harm],” said Storen. “I’m not the type of guy to punch a wall or do something like that. It’s not what I was aiming for.” Storen dismissed the notion that he may have played his final game for the Nats, writes Raby — he’s been mentioned as a speculative trade candidate this offseason — instead stating that his focus is on getting healthy and supporting his Nationals teammates in the season’s final few weeks. Storen will be arb-eligible for the final time this offseason and due a raise on his $5.7MM salary. He’ll be a free agent following the 2016 season.

NL Central Notes: Lackey Contract, Suarez, Nelson

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The final inning thrown by John Lackey in his last outing brought him to 200 on the season, and that number has more meaning than just serving as a nice, round milestone, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As Goold reports, the Cardinals and Lackey reworked his 2015 contract so that he would earn a $400K bonus upon reaching 200 innings. Of course, Lackey’s 2015 salary will still be peanuts compared to his career earnings and the previous, $16.5MM annual salary on his five-year deal. That contract contained a clause that added a club option at the league minimum in the event that Lackey suffered a serious elbow injury, which he did midway through the deal when he required Tommy John surgery. Goold previously reported that Lackey would’ve earned $1.2MM in bonuses at 150 innings, so this next bonus figures to push him slightly over $400K when factoring in his $507K base. Even at ~$2.1MM, Lackey would be among the game’s best bargains. The 36-year-old has turned in a 2.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in his 200 innings this season.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Eugenio Suarez has done a brilliant job filling in for injured Reds shortstop Zack Cozart since being recalled midway through the year, but there won’t be many at-bats for him at shortstop in 2016 when Cozart is back up to speed. The 24-year-old Suarez, though, is more than willing to switch positions to remain in the lineup, he tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “If they need me at another position, I would try to play there,” said Suarez. “For me, the important thing is to play in the big leagues.” Manager Bryan Price said that he thinks both Cozart and Suarez can be regulars for the Reds in the future. Suarez, who was acquired in the lopsided trade that sent Alfredo Simon to Detroit, has batted .284/.321/.458 with 11 homers in 81 games with the Reds this season. In my recent Three Needs piece on the Reds, I suggested that Cincinnati look to move Brandon Phillips to open playing time for Suarez at second base. Failing that, the Reds could try him in left field.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson received excellent news on Thursday after Nelson was struck in the head by a 108-mph line drive, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. A CT scan somewhat incredibly revealed only a bruise, leaving the 26-year-old otherwise unscathed. Manager Craig Counsell wouldn’t commit to a plan of action for Nelson following the scare. Nelson has been one of Milwaukee’s most consistent starters in 2015, working to a 4.11 ERA (4.12 FIP, 4.07 xFIP) across 177 1/3 innings.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Sox, Lindor, Sano, Hicks

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Miguel Cabrera spoke with MLB.com’s Jason Beck about what has been perhaps his most difficult season as a member of the Tigers. Despite great personal success — Cabrera is hitting .335/.438/.540 even after 20 straight hitless at-bats — Cabrera hasn’t experienced a losing season since his first as a Tiger in 2008. The two-time AL MVP told Beck that had everyone been healthy from Opening Day, he feels the talent was there to make a postseason run, but injuries led to the tough decisions to have to trade David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria. Those same injuries (to himself, Victor Martinez, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and others) led Cabrera to defend manager Brad Ausmus. “…[I]t’s not his fault,” said Cabrera. “…Why do people say you’ve got to fire him? … I always say, man, if we’re healthy, we can push harder. But this year, we got a lot of key players out for one month, two months. With that, there’s no way you’re going to win, because we need everybody here. It’s not about one player.”

More from the AL Central to kick off Friday morning…

  • On a similar note, White Sox outfielder Melky Cabrera praised skipper Robin Ventura when speaking to MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. “I found what I expected here,” said Cabrera, who has enjoyed his first season in spite of the team’s losing record. “I think that Robin is a great manager. I like to play for him. We have the core players that we can compete in the future.” Cabrera and Ventura both spoke about the slow starts for a number of White Sox players (Cabrera included) and the difficulty in overcoming the early hole dug by those struggles. Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez and Adam LaRoche all struggled a great deal early on. Eaton came to life in early May, whereas Cabrera turned it on in June and Ramirez has been hitting quite well since July 1. LaRoche, on the other hand, has seen his struggles continue all season.
  • Did the Indians wait too long to promote Francisco Lindor this season? Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer examines the question from both sides, noting that there was a case to be made for Lindor to break camp with the club and one that says it made both business and baseball sense for the team to keep him in Triple-A until mid-June. The Indians gained an extra year of club control and likely prevented Lindor from reaching Super Two designation by keeping him at Triple-A until June 14, though as Hoynes notes, the four-game gap they’re facing in the Wild Card standings may well have been smaller with a full season of the potential Rookie of the Year winner. (From my vantage point — Lindor didn’t hit much at Triple-A in 2014 and started the 2015 season quite slowly in Triple-A as well. Had he come firing out of the gates, there would’ve been a definite case to bring him up late April, but he didn’t begin hitting until late May anyhow.)
  • Even Twins GM Terry Ryan admitted to being surprised by just how impressive Miguel Sano has been at the plate since his promotion, he said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link). Ryan noted that Sano looked “rusty” early in the season in his first action back from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of 2014. “He really struggled in the first month of April down there, and his at-bats were not good,” said Ryan. “…When he came up here in July, he was putting tremendous, quality, professional at-bats together. He wasn’t chasing, and when he got a strike, he did something with it. And he’s given us that power presence in the middle of the lineup that we desperately needed.”
  • Host Todd Hollandsworth also asked Ryan about the progression of Aaron Hicks, noting that the Twins deserve some praise for sticking with the former first-round pick through his early struggles in his career. Said Ryan of Hicks: “He reminds me a lot of Torii Hunter back in the day, when Torii struggled through the system in the minor leagues and came up and went back a couple times, then finally solidified himself as a great player.” Hicks’ breakout hasn’t garnered the attention of Sano’s performance, but the 25-year-old is hitting .262/.323/.412 with 11 homers, 12 steals and strong outfield defense after a batting a woeful .201/.293/.314 from 2013-14.

West Notes: Milo Hamilton, Freese, Semien, Dodgers

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Hall-of-Fame broadcaster Milo Hamilton, the long-time voice of the Astros, passed away today at 88 years of age. David Barron of the Houston Chronicle documents the life and work of the man who shaped the baseball experiences of so many Houston fans — and coaches, players, and executives — during his venerable career.

With a tip of the cap to Mr. Hamilton, and best regards to his loved ones, here are some notes from the game’s western divisions:

  • Angels third baseman David Freese says that he has given no thought at all to his upcoming free agency, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. While his focus is on helping his team, a nice post-DL run at the plate is also helpful to Freese’s free agent case. Though Freese has been fairly average across the board over his career, and is entering his age-33 season, he enjoys a good position in a market that is largely devoid of high-end options at the hot corner.
  • The Athletics like what they’ve seen from Marcus Semien in the second half, as he’s made strides on defense, but GM Billy Beane tells Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com that he’s open to considering Semien at other positions. “Right now, we’re committed to [Semien] for this year [at shortstop], and like I said, we like his progress and hopefully he continues it,” Beane explained. “… I don’t see any immediate competition right now, but at some point, that will arrive on the scene. The thing with Marcus is he’s got the ability to play any position. He can play second, third, short, the outfield. He’s always got that in his back pocket.” Semien has landed a bit below league average with the bat, and UZR isn’t a fan of his overall glovework, but Defensive Runs Saved actually sees him as a positive overall in the field. And he’s still young, having just turned 25 today. (Happy birthday, Marcus!)
  • Certainly, it will be interesting to see whether the A’s look to move Semien around the diamond in the coming seasons. Regardless of how things turn out for him, it’s worth noting that the trade that brought him to Oakland is looking quite positive for the organization, which has received solid early returns from Chris Bassitt and Josh Phegley even as Jeff Samardzija has struggled with the White Sox. Of course, Oakland will also enjoy rights to those players for much longer, whereas Samardzija will be a free agent this winter.
  • The Dodgers are continuing to enact broader organizational changes, this time to the minor league staff. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports, the organization is shaking up its coaching and instructor ranks. Director of player development Gabe Kapler says that the club “wanted to bring in some new voices in key areas.” Last we checked in, Los Angeles had begun turning over its international scouting department.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Harper, Lazo

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark takes a long look at the question of how the Mets ought to be handling righty Matt Harvey within the context of the broader state of knowledge on pitching injuries. It is an interesting read, though the bottom-line takeaway remains that even the experts still feel unable to provide clear guidance on how to handle post-Tommy John pitchers.

A few more quick notes relating to the NL East:

  • It’s time for the Nationals to consider whether to make a real run at attempting to extend Bryce Harper, writes Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. As he notes, Harper is currently looking to polish off a historic season — his OPS+ of over 200 is something that a number of inner-circle Hall-of-Famers never reached, let alone at age 22 — which obviously gives him plenty of leverage. True, Harper is already under contract for a reasonable price tag next year — after reaching a two-year, $7.5MM, grievance-avoiding deal that has worked out well for Washington — and he can be controlled for two more seasons beyond. But signing a player like Harper, who is represented by Scott Boras, is probably less about market comps than it is creative business valuation and the imaginations of both sides. Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM guarantee would probably need to be smashed to get something done, Boswell suggests, and I’m inclined to agree.
  • Marlins lefty Raudel Lazo has overcome long odds to reach the big leagues this year, as Christina De Nicoloa of FOXSports Florida writes. Not only did he have to defect from his native Cuba and climb the ranks as a fairly unheralded signee, but he overcame consecutive Tommy John surgeries along the way. The 26-year-old has a small frame and lacks a high-velocity fastball, but he has consistently posted good strikeout-to-walk numbers in the minors.

Jung Ho Kang Out For 6-8 Months After Knee Surgery

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9:49pm: The Pirates announced that Kang’s surgery will keep him away from competition for an estimated period of six to eight months. That would seem to make a return late in Spring Training the best possible scenario.

The procedure that was ultimately required, per the announcement, was a “reduction/internal fixation of a displaced lateral tibial plateau fracture with a lateral meniscal repair.”

6:06pm: Kang is out for the year with a significant injury, according to a report from Dejan Kovacevic of DKPittsburghSports.com (subscription required). Kang has a torn MCL and meniscus as well as a fractured tibial plateau.

That’s bad news for the playoff-bound Pirates, of course. A recovery timeline remains unclear, but the club’s offseason plans will be heavily impacted by Kang’s outlook.

1:21pm: Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang suffered a knee injury in this afternoon’s contest when Chris Coghlan slid into second base to break up a double play effort. As Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes, Kang exited the game with the help of two trainers and did not put any weight on his left leg. To this point, the Pirates have announced only that the knee is being examined, though the injury certainly looked to be fairly serious in nature (video link).

Kang has been one of the best rookies in all of baseball this year, riding a .287/.355/.461 batting line, 15 homers, five steals and solid defense to legitimate Rookie of the Year candidacy. His outstanding rookie campaign has already more than justified the Pirates’ modest $16MM offseason expenditure (when including the posting fee), and a loss for any significant amount of time would be a huge loss for Pittsburgh as the team has pulled within four games of the Cardinals for the NL Central lead.

Pittsburgh is likely to end up in the postseason as a Wild Card team even if they don’t catch the Cardinals, but the difference between staking a season on a one-game playoff versus a best-of-five series is sizable. Without Kang, the Pirates will lean even more heavily on Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer in the infield. While Mercer has a history of reasonably productive seasons, he’s slumped to a .240/.291/.306 batting line in 2015 (including today’s two hits), so the Pirates will hope that Kang’s injury is one from which he can return in relatively short order.

Injury Notes: Nelson, Travis, Tulo, Banuelos

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A serious knee injury to Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang will have immediate impact as the post-season nears, and that’s not the only injury to watch today. Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson exited his outing tonight after being struck in the head by a line drive. It was a scary situation, and he’s obviously being handled with extreme care, but the 26-year-old righty was able to walk off and is reportedly coherent as he heads to a hospital for treatment.

As we send our best wishes to Milwaukee, here’s the latest on some other medical situations around the league:

  • Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis will undergo exploratory surgery on his left shoulder, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm was among those to report on Twitter. That will end whatever hope had remained for him to return this year. It’s unfortunate for both Travis and the Jays that he won’t have a chance to rejoin the club late in the year. Travis, 24, was a revelation for Toronto after coming over in an offseason swap for Anthony Gose. He owns a .304/.361/.498 slash over 239 plate appearances. With good baserunning and fielding added in, he was certainly one of the league’s most impressive rookies, though he’s been out since late July. His progress over the fall and winter will certainly be important as the Jays plan for next season.
  • Of course, the Blue Jays are also waiting to learn when shortstop Troy Tulowitzki will return from his own shoulder issues. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter, the club is still looking for a full understanding of the situation and does not yet have a timeline. Tulo saw a specialist today in hopes of learning more. There is no indication at present that the collision which led to the injury will post any long-term difficulties for the star infielder.
  • Young Braves left-hander Manny Banuelos underwent a procedure today to remove a bone spur from his elbow, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter links). It went as well as could be hoped, says O’Brien, as there was no ligament damage found. The former top prospect, now 24, made his big league debut after generating solid results at Triple-A in his first season with the Atlanta organization.

Three Needs: San Diego Padres

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As we continue working our way through the major needs of non-contenders with the offseason in sight, we’ll turn our attention to the Padres. San Diego entered the year with big expectations after a volatile winter under new GM A.J. Preller. Things haven’t worked out as planned, but the Friars nevertheless stood pat at the trade deadline. San Diego is as unpredictable as any organization in baseball right now, but here are a few areas the team might look to address:

1. Get the talent pipeline flowing. Preller came to San Diego with a reputation as a hard-working, discerning evaluator of talent who could dig up young players at good values. President/CEO Mike Dee explained the premise before the season: “But [Preller] said you don’t have to choose between one or the other. You can have both. You can have a strong pursuit of amateur and international talent and still add impact players. … I’m excited to see the second half of what he’s known for [in the international market].” 

One year into Preller’s tenure, the club’s farm is lagging — even as the team struggles at the major league level. As things stand, the organization has just one top-100 prospect (Hunter Renfroe, #76 per MLB.com). The Padres didn’t have a first-round draft pick last year after sacrificing their first two choices in the James Shields signing and the Craig Kimbrel trade. And while the organization says it’s happy with its haul of July 2 prospects, it didn’t land Yoan Moncada, Yadier Alvarez, or any of the other most-hyped Latin American players on this year’s international market.

We’ve already seen Preller trade away a good portion of the upper-level talent he inherited. Now, he’ll need to show that he can successfully re-fill the system. The team appears to be headed for a top-ten draft pick, and can use qualifying offers to Justin Upton and (potentially) Ian Kennedy to add more selections and spending capacity. That’s a nice start, but more creative measures — such as trading a player like Kimbrel, searching the trade market for competitive balance picks and international signing pools, and/or looking for the next Touki Toussaint deal — may be needed.

2. Sort out the middle infield. Dating from the start of the 2011 season, the Padres rank dead last in major league baseball in middle infielder fWAR. The bulk of the positive wins above replacement from that stretch date to 2013, when Jedd Gyorko and Everth Cabrera both had solid campaigns. Other than that, San Diego has received basically replacement-level production from both the second base and shortstop positions for the last five years.

The organization is currently batting around some less-than-optimal possibilities as the offseason looms. Gyorko has looked re-born at the plate in recent months, and the team seems pleased with the initial returns on an experimental move to shortstop. But it would be brave to go into a full season on the assumption he’ll hold down that position, especially given the failed effort to use Wil Myers in center field this year. San Diego currently has the league’s worst defense, by measure of UZR/150 innings, and asking Gyorko (never a highly-regarded defender elsewhere in the infield) to step in at short seems a tall order.

That’s all the more true given that the organization isn’t exactly overflowing with talent elsewhere in the infield. Other players in the mix at second and third are Cory Spangenberg, Yangervis Solarte, and Will Middlebrooks. While some combination of that group should passably hold down those positions, it looks like a stretch for it to cover the four-through-six slots in a contending infield.

With this year’s Clint Barmes–Alexi Amarista pairing having fallen flat, and Trea Turner dealt away, an outside shortstop addition may well be necessary if expectations are to contend. San Diego can look to a trade market with several promising possibilities or pursue a group of free agents that includes some interesting-but-aging veterans who could be had on short-term deals.

3. Balance the lineup. Improving on the defensive side is one way that San Diego can add balance and situational flexibility to its roster, but even more pressing may be the need for left-right balance in the lineup. Aside from the switch-hitting Solarte, who has fairly even platoon splits over his two big league seasons, the team has a dearth of left-handed bats amongst its regulars.

There are some lefties in the mix, of course, but all appear to be part-time options at this stage. Spangenberg hits from the left side, as do Amarista and rookie Travis Jankowski — who could conceivably split time with Melvin Upton in center next year. Outfielder Alex Dickerson may get a long look to make the team as a fourth outfielder this spring, and Brett Wallace could be brought back after a surprising run (with a sample-size warning in full effect). There’s Yonder Alonso, but he’s yet to impress consistently and is out again with another injury. He may be displaced at first by Myers. Top youngsters Renfroe and Austin Hedges are righties, so it isn’t as if there is a big, left-handed bat waiting in the wings.

What can be done? As things stand, there isn’t a lot of room to spend: San Diego already has $75MM on the books, and that’s before acting on a $8MM option over Joaquin Benoit and paying arb raises to Myers, Alonso, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, and Derek Norris. While some budget bench signings are possible, the trade route looks more promising if the Padres look to add an everyday left-handed hitter or two.

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