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2016 Vesting Options Midseason Update

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Several notable players could see their 2016 statuses change depending on whether or not they unlock vesting options in their current contracts.  As we enter the All-Star break, let’s check in on the progress each of these players are making towards those getting those options to vest.  All stats are current heading into today’s action…

  • Chase Utley: The veteran second baseman has a $15MM vesting option for 2016 that becomes guaranteed if he makes 500 plate appearances.  (If he doesn’t, it becomes a team option worth between $5MM-$11MM depending on how much time Utley spends on the DL, with a $2MM buyout.)  Utley, of course, is on the DL right now recovering from an ankle injury and will be out until late July or early August.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has openly stated that Cesar Hernandez has earned the everyday second base job, leaving Utley’s playing time in question for the remainder of the season.  Utley is suffering through by far the worst season of his 13-year career with only a .179/.257/.275 slash line and four homers through his 249 plate appearances.  If Utley isn’t back until early August, he’d be hard-pressed to reach 500 PA even in the increasingly unlikely event that he plays every day.
  • Jonathan Papelbon: This Phillie’s march towards his vesting option is going much more smoothly.  His $13MM option for 2016 vests if he either finishes 55 games this year, or finishes 100 games combined between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.  Papelbon finished 52 games last year and has 29 finishes this season, so collecting those last 19 finishes over roughly two and a half months shouldn’t be difficult for the closer if he stays healthy.  There’s a chance Papelbon could ask for his option to be guaranteed to facilitate a trade, yet he sounds so eager to get out of Philadelphia and pitch for a contender that he may not bother and instead bet on himself to finish those 19 games.
  • David Ortiz: Big Papi has 340 plate appearances, making him a virtual lock to reach the 425 PA he’ll need (plus passing an offseason physical) for his 2016 option to vest.  Ortiz will earn at least $11MM in 2016, plus more depending on how many PA past the 425-mark he ends up recording this season.
  • Joaquin Benoit: With only seven games finished, Benoit has no shot at the 55 games finished he’s need to turn the Padres’ $8MM club option into a guarantee for 2016.
  • Marlon Byrd: If Byrd has 600 PA this season, or at least 550 PA this season and 1100 PA total between 2014-15, the $8MM club option on his 2016 services will become guaranteed.  A DL stint limited Byrd to 262 PA thus far, so it’ll be difficult for Byrd to reach the 550 PA mark unless he stays healthy and the Reds play him virtually every day.
  • Santiago Casilla: The Giants righty signed a three-year, $15MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason that contained a vesting option. MLBTR has learned that Casilla’s 2016 option will vest at $6.5MM with 55 games finished during the 2015 season. Casilla’s option could have vested at $7.5MM with 100 games finished between the 2014-15 seasons, including 55 in 2015. The option could also have vested at $8.5MM with 150 games finished from 2013-15, including 55 finished in 2015.
  • Nori Aoki: The outfielder was one of the league leaders in plate appearances when he fractured his right fibula, so he already has 291 of the 550 PA he needs to turn the Giants’ $5.5MM option for 2016 into a mutual option.  If Aoki returns around July 24 (as Bruce Bochy estimates) and resumes his everyday spot atop San Francisco’s lineup, he stands a good chance of reaching the vesting point.
  • Jonny Gomes: If Gomes receives 325 PA, his $3MM option for 2016 will become guaranteed.  He’s just over halfway there with 166 plate appearances, so this one may come right down to the wire.

We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest, as the Phillies southpaw hasn’t pitched all season and is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery.  Brandon League also hasn’t pitched this season and has been released by the Dodgers, so he won’t reach the games-finished total required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.

Padres Asking Other Teams About James Shields

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The Padres have asked teams about any possible interest in James Shields, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports (Twitter link).  The extent of these discussions isn’t known, as the Padres could’ve been simply doing due diligence on trade scenarios rather than seriously gauging the right-hander’s market, though the fact that Shields’ name has been floated at all is a notable step.

Following today’s win over the Rangers, San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 41-49 record that puts them 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games back of the Cubs for the second NL wild card spot.  It’s a disappointing spot for a Padres team that made several major additions last offseason, and yet GM A.J. Preller hinted that his club’s trade deadline goal was to reload for 2016 rather than rebuild.

Still, Preller also noted that Padres were open to all options and “the biggest thing we preach to our scouts is to just be prepared for all different scenarios.”  Dealing Shields would naturally present a far different “scenario” than dealing, say, a player on an expiring contract.  As others have noted, trading Shields just months after the veteran and San Diego-area native signed a large multi-year contract would hurt the Padres in the eyes of both the fans and future free agents who might think twice about signing with the club.

Shields has a 4.01 ERA, 3.28 K/BB rate and a career-best 10.1 K/9 over 116 2/3 innings this season.  Advanced metrics (3.30 xFIP, 3.25 SIERA) indicate that Shields’ 4.01 ERA is a bit high, as Shields has been hurt by a 17.9% home run rate — this number is not only well above Shields’ career average, it stands out even more as an outlier given that his home games are at one of baseball’s most notoriously pitcher-friendly ballparks.

Shields is guaranteed roughly $4.1MM for the remainder of this season, then $63MM over the 2016-18 seasons and a $16MM club option (with a $2MM buyout) for 2019.  That’s a lot of salary for a 33-year-old hurler, yet since Shields can opt out after the 2016 season, a trading team might prefer such a potentially medium-sized commitment rather than deal for a pitcher on a guaranteed long deal (i.e. Cole Hamels) or one who can enter free agency this winter.

NL East Notes: Hamels, Braves, Pierzynski, Rizzo

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Assuming normal rest, Cole Hamels is scheduled to start for the Phillies on July 19, July 25 and July 31, Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer notes.  That July 31st start is a night game, so Hamels could be scratched if he’s dealt prior to the deadline earlier that afternoon (assuming he hasn’t already been traded before the 31st).  Here’s some more from Philadelphia and elsewhere around the NL East…

  • The Braves had discussed packaging Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson together in trade talks, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports, with the idea that two relievers would bring back a larger return from a bullpen-needy team. That plan was scuttled when Grilli suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear yesterday, though Johnson remains a trade candidate.
  • Bowman’s piece lists several possible trade chips on the Braves roster, including Johnson, Chris Johnson, Kelly Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Juan Uribe and A.J. Pierzynski.  In regards to Pierzynski, Bowman believes Atlanta will try to bring the catcher back in 2016 even if they do trade him this year.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo broadly discussed his team’s general deadline plans with reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  The Nats lineup will be boosted by the returns of several stars from the DL, and while Janes feels Washington could use another relief arm, Rizzo praised the job done by current relievers like Aaron Barrett and Blake Treinen.
  • It’s only a matter of time before Aaron Nola is promoted to the majors, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes, and he believes the Phillies could call Nola up within “the next couple of weeks, possibly in tandem with a trade deadline move.”  This is just my speculation, but promoting Nola to fill Hamels’ roster spot would be a good the-future-is-now type of move.
  • Several scouts believe former Angels GM Jerry Dipoto would be a good fit as the Phillies’ next general manager, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets.  Interestingly, Dipoto’s former assistant GM in Anaheim, Matt Klentak, has also been mentioned in connection to a job in the new Andy MacPhail-run Phillies front office.
  • In NL East news from earlier today, the Pirates have interest in Phillies outfielders Ben Revere and Jeff Francoeur.

AL Central Notes: Mondesi, Swisher, Johnson, Tigers

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Raul Mondesi is the Royals’ “most appealing asset for trade discussions,” rival evaluators tell Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star, though “the Royals have little interest in parting with him.”  Mondesi was a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com, with BA listing him 28th before the year began and updating his status to 25th in their recent midseason rankings.  Despite a less-than-stellar showing at Double-A this season, the 19-year-old Mondesi has been discussed as a possible September call-up.  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Before Nick Swisher went on the DL, the Indians and Braves discussed a trade that would’ve sent Swisher to Atlanta in exchange for Chris Johnson, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  The Braves ended talks since Swisher is owed significantly more than Johnson (approximately $6.25MM to $2.5MM) over the remainder of the 2015 campaign.  Johnson is guaranteed $17.5MM over the 2016-17 seasons while Swisher is owed $15MM in 2016 and he has a $14MM vesting option for 2017.  The deal would’ve been an interesting case of clubs essentially swapping one disappointment for another, as both Swisher and Johnson have posted underwhelming numbers over the last two seasons.
  • Indians scouting director Brad Grant discusses his team’s top three draft picks (Brady Aiken, Triston McKenzie and Juan Hillman) with Fangraphs’ David Laurila, noting how the Tribe wasn’t shy to take a pitcher recovering from Tommy John surgery and two high school arms.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has a very impressive history at the trade deadline, as Tony Paul of the Detroit News lists nine deals that benefited the team over Dombrowski’s tenure.

Draft Signings: Tyler Watson, Josh Rogers

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Here are today’s notable draft signings, with all slot information courtesy of Baseball America…

  • The Nationals have signed 34th-rounder Tyler Watson to a contract with a $400K bonus, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link).  As with any draft pick past the 10th round who signs for more than $100K, the excess (in this case $300K) will count against the club’s draft pool.  Washington had room to spare in its approximately $4.120MM draft pool after signing its prospects from the first 10 rounds to just under $3.350MM.  Watson is a left-handed high schooler described by Callis as possessing a 91mph fastball and a curveball that “shows promise.”
  • The Yankees went roughly $400K above slot to sign 11th-rounder Josh Rogers, a left-handed sophomore from Louisville.  Callis reports Rogers signed for “early fourth-round money,” which would indicate a bonus in the $500K-$538K range.  Rogers has a fastball can touch the 92mph mark and he can throw three pitches for strikes, according to Callis.  As noted in a follow-up tweet from Callis, this leaves New York with around $2.7MM in remaining pool money to sign first-rounder James Kaprielian, who carries a $2.543MM slot value as the 16th overall pick.

Red Sox To Sign Ronald Belisario

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The Red Sox will sign right-hander Ronald Belisario, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Belisario is represented by the McNamara Baseball Group.

Belisario signed a split contract with the Rays last winter and only appeared in six big league games with the team, posting a 7.88 ERA over eight relief innings.  Belisario then elected free agency after being outrighted off Tampa’s roster.  Given how Boston’s bullpen has struggled this year, there’s certainly opportunity for the 32-year-old to find regular work in the Sox relief corps.

Prior to the 2015 season, Belisario held a career 3.75 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.17 K/BB rate over 331 1/3 innings with the Dodgers and White Sox.  He’s coming off a tough 5.56 ERA over 66 1/3 IP with Chicago in 2014, though advanced metrics indicate that Belisario was rather unlucky to post such an unsightly ERA.  Belisario is a ground-ball specialist (60.9% career grounder rate), which should help him at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

AL Notes: Tigers, Royals, Blue Jays

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A.J. Preller is nearing his first trade deadline as a GM in San Diego and he’ll be applying some of what he learned as a member of the Rangers’ front office.

“I think it’s a very valuable experience,” Preller said, according to Cody Stavenhagen of MLB.com. “I was able to work with good people, and I think we were able to learn from some early mistakes. I think being a part of managing some departments and being in the Draft and the international world and the player world on a grassroots level, I think it definitely helps you prepare for an opportunity in baseball, for this job.”

Preller’s current club is 10.0 games back of first place in the NL West, but his former club, the Rangers, is a little closer to the top of the division at 42-45.  Here’s a look at the American League..

  • Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski spoke with reporters Sunday morning and said, “We’re trying to win right now,” Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets.  Over the weekend the Tigers inked Neftali Feliz in an attempt to help turn around their bullpen which ranks amongst the worst in the majors in ERA.  Meanwhile, Dombrowski’s future is uncertain as he is without an extension with just months to go on his contract.
  • The Royals and Pirates are among the teams looking for outfield help, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.  Alex Gordon has a grade two-plus groin strain and is expected to miss eight weeks of action, so it makes sense that KC would be on the lookout for outfield help.  Earlier today we learned that the Pirates are looking at Phillies outfielders Ben Revere and Jeff Francoeur.
  • The Blue Jays’ need for pitching is very obvious, but Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (on Twitter) wonders if their sub-.500 record will lead them to deal for controllable arms rather than rentals.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

NL Central Notes: Fernandez, Reds, Bruce, Pirates

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Marlins star Jose Fernandez, who shut out the Reds on Thursday, could have been pitching for the other side if things went differently in 2011, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  Fernandez was initially ruled ineligible by the Florida High School Association four years ago for issues stemming from his defection from Cuba.  The Reds had a $1.3MM deal ready for Fernandez if he lost his appeal, but the hurler ultimately got the decision overturned.

“I talked to them,” Fernandez said. “But I ended up playing my senior year. I don’t know what would have happened. Life is crazy. You never know.”

Here’s more from the NL Central..

  • One person familiar with the Reds thinking tells Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (on Twitter) that he believes there’s at least a 50/50 chance Jay Bruce is traded in July.  Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports heard that Bruce is as “as good a bet as anyone” on the team to be dealt.  Bruce, 28, is controllable for three more years and offers an established power bat.
  • Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette turned in his mid-season report card for the Pirates.  Brink gave the Bucs’ front office an A grade for the offseason it had, including the signing for Jung-ho Kang, which was viewed as a risk by some at the time.  Kang has given the Bucs a .267/.343/.385 slash line with four homers while playing solid defense at third base.
  • Reading between the lines, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel suspects that a transition to a new Brewers GM is underway.  Haudricourt reasons that if Melvin was going to remain the team’s GM in 2016, the club would have announced it by now.  Sometime before the end of the season, the scribe believes the Brewers will announce that Melvin is out as GM, giving them time to search for a successor and have someone in place for important offseason decisions.  Earlier this month it was reported that Melvin is considering a new role within the club.

Cubs Notes: Hammel, Pitching, Baez

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Here’s a glance at the latest out of Wrigley..

  • Good news for the Cubs and Jason Hammel as his MRI results were promising, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets.  The hurler is expected to make his next start after the All-Star break.   Hammel, 32, owns a 2.86 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 through 17 starts this season.  If Hammel was sidelined for a significant amount of time, the Cubs likely would have had to ramp up their pitching search even more.
  • The Cubs survived a scare when it came to Hammel’s injury but that situation only underlined the team’s need for starting pitching help, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun Times writes.  “Scare’s probably a good word,” GM Jed Hoyer said. “It makes you realize every team, every pitcher can go down at any time, and you have to have the depth to handle it. … We know we still have to continue to push that.”
  • Javier Baez has been cleared to swing a bat but there’s no timetable for his return just yet, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com tweets.  The Cubs have been on the lookout for pitching and it was reported last last month that one possible deal was disrupted when Baez suffered a broken finger.

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