2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

Less than one month remains in the 2014 regular season, so our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings are starting to resemble the beginning of the Top 50 Free Agents list, which will come out in early November after teams make qualifying offers.  Click here for the previous edition of the power rankings, and click here for the full list of 2015 free agents.

1.  Max Scherzer.  Scherzer has a 3.07 ERA in eight starts since the power rankings were last published.  The 30-year-old ranks second in the AL with 220 strikeouts, fifth with 187 2/3 innings, 13th with a 3.26 ERA, and 5th with a 2.84 SIERA.  His Tigers are a good bet for the playoffs, which would mark Scherzer’s fourth consecutive postseason.  Scherzer could secure the largest free agent contract ever signed by a pitcher, a record currently held by C.C. Sabathia’s seven-year, $161MM deal from six years ago.  More recently, free agent Masahiro Tanaka required a $175MM commitment, but $20MM of that was paid to his former team.  Both of those pitchers received opt-out clauses, a likely goal for Scherzer.

2.  Jon Lester.  Lester ranks fourth in the AL with a 2.55 ERA, fifth with 186 strikeouts, sixth with 183 2/3 innings, and eighth with a 3.06 SIERA.  He hasn’t missed a beat since being traded to the Athletics at the July deadline.  Because of the trade, Lester boasts a free agency advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer after the season.  He’s headed to the playoffs for the fifth time in his career.  Lester is only six months older than Scherzer, and some teams shopping in the high-end of the free agent pitching market may prefer him.  The Red Sox told Lester they’ll be aggressive in trying to sign him as a free agent, and the lefty says he’s prioritizing his family’s happiness over money.

3.  James Shields.  Shields currently leads all free agent starters with 192 innings, but Scherzer could temporarily overtake him Thursday with a decent outing.  At 33 years old in December, Shields belongs slightly below the Scherzer/Lester tier in what is shaping up to be the best trio of free agent starters since this website began nine years ago.  Shields is looking to reach the playoffs for the fourth time in his career with a Royals club that hasn’t been there since 1985.  ESPN’s Buster Olney and WEEI’s Rob Bradford have suggested the Red Sox could make a play for Shields.  A four-year deal for Shields would be easier to stomach than six or seven years for Scherzer or Lester, although a strong finish could give Big Game James a case for five years.

4.  Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez spent a few weeks on the DL in August for an oblique strain.  It was his first DL stint of the year, though he missed around 15 games previously due to various ailments.  The 30-year-old is beginning to look injury-prone, and his bat will be less impressive if he doesn’t stick at shortstop for most of his next contract.  The game is flush with cash, but is this a $100MM player?

5.  Pablo Sandoval.  Sandoval has proven to be a useful player who hits for average with slightly above-average pop and surprisingly solid defense given his physique.  He’s a better hitter than Chase Headley and is much younger than Aramis Ramirez, so Sandoval is the best third baseman available.  The Giants seem likely to make a play to re-sign him.

6.  Victor Martinez.  Martinez has been on fire since our last set of power rankings, hitting .344/.433/.526 in 180 plate appearances.  He’s been among the best hitters in all of baseball this year, and no other free agent comes close to his 2014 production.  Martinez is mostly a designated hitter at this point, and he’ll turn 36 in December.  He’ll probably find a team willing to take their chances on a three-year deal, possibly in excess of the $45MM Carlos Beltran received.

7.  Yasmani Tomas.  Last month, Rusney Castillo set a Cuban free agent record in signing a seven-year, $72.5MM contract with the Red Sox.  Tomas is a different type of outfielder, a corner guy with middle of the order power.  He’s also younger, at 24 years old in November.  The Phillies have been linked to Tomas in the early going, but he still has to be cleared by the Office of Foreign Assets Control before becoming a free agent.  Once that happens, Tomas could have the widest market of anyone on this list given his age.

8.  Melky Cabrera.  Cabrera’s solid campaign continues, as he’s hitting .305/.355/.464 in 605 plate appearances.  He recently turned 30 and figures to aim for a five-year deal.  He may only achieve three or four, owing to subpar defense, a potential qualifying offer, and his 2012 suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs.

9.  Russell Martin.  By measure of Fangraphs wins above replacement, Martin has been roughly as valuable as Jose Bautista this year while playing in 70% as many games.  Martin has been one of the best catchers in all of baseball, with an uncharacteristic .414 OBP and his typical excellent defensive work.  It’s hard to find even a surefire starter among the other free agent catchers, so the 31-year-old Martin is about to cash in.  A four-year deal north of $50MM seems possible.

10.  Nelson Cruz.  Cruz leads MLB with 36 home runs, yet he’s tumbled from sixth to tenth on this list.  The 34-year-old’s success amounts to two good months to start the season, after which he’s hitting .214/.282/.406 in 340 plate appearances.  He could still reach 40 home runs, which can’t be ignored, but with another qualifying offer Cruz might find free agency disappointing again.  Cruz said recently he’d like to work out an extension with the Orioles before the end of the season, but talks to date have been casual.

26-year-old Japanese righty Kenta Maeda remains worth watching; he has a 2.73 ERA in 142 innings.  Ervin Santana has been excellent in eight starts since our last power rankings and seems primed for a multiyear deal.  Jason Hammel has settled in in Oakland, pitching quite well in four of his last five starts.  Jake Peavy and Brandon McCarthy have excelled following trades, while Justin Masterson’s stock has plummeted and he’s been moved to the Cardinals’ bullpen.  Francisco Liriano and Jorge De La Rosa also warrant mention as multiyear deal candidates, though De La Rosa may end up with a qualifying offer attached to his name.  Josh Beckett may be lost for the season with a hip injury, muddying his free agent picture.

On the position player side, Aramis Ramirez continues putting up strong numbers, and Mike Morse has remained useful in recent weeks.  Asdrubal Cabrera has hit well in his new role as the Nationals’ second baseman.  J.J. Hardy didn’t hit a home run until June 21, but he’s gone deep nine times since while playing his typical brand of elite defense at shortstop and should secure a nice multi-year deal.  Nick Markakis has been steady and productive for most of the season.  Late signees Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales have continued to struggle after being traded, calling their offseason strategy into question.

The trade deadline will be upon us next week, but the 2014-15 free agent class still warrants an early look.  My June edition of the 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings can be found here, and the full list of 2015 free agents is here.

1.  Max Scherzer.  Scherzer overcame a midseason hiccup by posting a 1.87 ERA over his last five starts, bringing him back down to 3.34 on the season.  He even picked up the win for the American League in the All-Star Game.  It’s been a long time since agent Scott Boras has had a starting pitcher of this caliber as a free agent.

2.  Jon Lester.  Lester isn’t far behind Scherzer, having allowed three earned runs in 38 2/3 innings since our last set of rankings.  Lester owns a 2.50 ERA as well as superb timing, and he’s been better than Scherzer this year.  Lester hasn’t whiffed this many batters since 2010, and he’s never shown this level of control.  Accounting for performance prior to this year, I still give Scherzer the overall edge.  Around late June the Red Sox looked to reignite extension talks with Lester, but the pitcher did not receive a new offer and continues to prefer to table discussions until after the season.  With the Red Sox slipping in the standings of late, Lester could be traded by the July 31st deadline and freed of a qualifying offer.

3.  Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez’s shoulder and calf have been bothering him, and he’s been hit by pitches three times this month.  The 30-year-old avoided the DL and continues to hit well.  On the other hand, he’s giving back some runs in the field, and defensive question marks are enough to push him down a few spots in the rankings.

4.  James Shields.  With a 4.39 ERA since May, Shields has failed to keep pace with Lester.  Still, Shields’ 2014 peripheral stats are mostly better than last year’s, which led to a 3.15 ERA.  The Royals also seem to be hanging around contention enough that they won’t give serious consideration to trading the big righty.  With a new contract that will begin with his age-33 season, Shields will be difficult to price in free agency.

5.  Pablo Sandoval.  As of May 13th, Sandoval’s OPS was down to .554.  He’s at .903 since then, with a .335/.370/.533 line in 230 plate appearances.  Just 28 in August, Sandoval has age on his side relative to most free agents.

6.  Nelson Cruz.  Cruz has stumbled since our last set of rankings, hitting .229/.282/.422 in 117 plate appearances.  He still ranks second in all of baseball in home runs and RBI, and could top his career-high of 33 longballs at some point in August.  Cruz is another tough free agent to price, as teams will be buying into his age 34-36 seasons (and perhaps age 37, if things go well for the slugger).

7.  Victor Martinez.  V-Mart’s resurgent contract year has continued unabated.  Though he’ll be 36 in December, Martinez’s goal might be a three-year pact.  On June 29th, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that while there have been no extension discussions, Martinez would love to remain in Detroit.  One complication for the Tigers is that Miguel Cabrera is signed through 2023 and will probably need to move to DH at some point.

8.  Yasmani Tomas.  A new entrant to this list, Tomas is a different kind of potential free agent.  As Ben Badler of Baseball America explained on June 20th, Tomas left Cuba to pursue an MLB contract but still has to clear the usual hurdles before he’s free to sign.  A 23-year-old corner outfielder, Badler pegs Tomas’ raw power as a 70.  It seems possible Tomas’ actual free agency will coincide with the MLB offseason.  Jose Abreu’s dazzling debut has made his $68MM contract look like a bargain, which should help Tomas score big.  It’s worth noting that Tomas isn’t said to be as polished as Abreu and likely doesn’t have the same ceiling.  He is younger, however, which helps his cause.

9.  Melky Cabrera.  Cabrera, 29, is hitting .305/.352/.463 on the season.  His ties to Biogenesis cloud the picture, but his injury-shortened 2013 might end up being Cabrera’s only poor season in his last four.

10.  Russell Martin.  Perhaps Martin can’t maintain his .271 batting average, but he’s in the midst of another solid campaign and doesn’t turn 32 until February.  Teams are also placing more and more emphasis on catching defense, and Martin has gunned down 37 percent of attempted base-stealers while ranking sixth in extra strikes added via pitch framing, per Baseball Prospectus.

This month’s Kenta Maeda watch: the 26-year-old Japanese righty is down to a 2.08 ERA in 15 starts.  Ervin Santana has been decent of late.  Jason Hammel was traded to Oakland and has seen his ERA rise from 2.98 to 3.35 after two starts.  Josh Beckett returns from a DL stint for a hip injury tonight.

You likely won’t find a reliever cracking the top 10, but closers David Robertson, Francisco Rodriguez, Casey Janssen and Rafael Soriano have been excellent, while Luke Gregerson and Andrew Miller have been lights out in a setup capacity.

Among position players, Chase Headley, who earlier today was traded to the Yankees, is still not showing any power (though perhaps a move to the hitter-friendly parks of the AL East can change that).   Colby Rasmus was placed in something of a platoon role earlier this month.   Nick Markakis leads MLB in plate appearances and has been useful this year.  Aramis Ramirez, who like Markakis has a mutual option on his deal, is having a nice year at the plate as well.  Stephen Drew’s bat has started to come alive this month after his late start to the season, while Kendrys Morales is hitting .295/.319/.432 over an 11-game hitting streak.  Neither Boras client has very appealing overall numbers.  Both Asdrubal Cabrera and Mike Morse have dropped off the list after sluggish performances since our last edition of the rankings.  A strong finish could put either back onto the map.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.