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2015-16 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets surprised in 2015, taking a weak NL East over a disappointing Nationals club and then streaking all the way to the World Series. Getting back is hardly assured, but the organization is as well situated as any for another run.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Options

  • None

Free Agents

It all starts with the rotation for GM Sandy Alderson and newly-extended skipper Terry Collins. The youth, talent, and recent track record of the arms assembled — high-performing youngsters Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz; veteran Jon Niese; and a recovering Zach Wheeler — suggests that the unit could be special.

If there’s a question about that staff, it’s probably whether last year’s workload will impact next year’s health and effectiveness. Harvey drew most of the headlines in that regard, throwing a career-high 216 innings (including the post-season) in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. But deGrom (+37 1/3 innings) and especially Syndergaard (+65 2/3) went well over their largest prior single-season innings tally. And all the pitchers will be looking to bounce back from a shortened layoff after a deep postseason run.

Sep 26, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson on the field with mascot Mr. Met before a game against the Houston Astros at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

That concern will likely motivate the organization to maintain depth. But the club has already shown at least some willingness to move arms when the need arose: Wheeler was set to be shipped out in the failed Carlos Gomez deal, while Michael Fulmer was one of several young pitchers that ultimately were traded over the summer.

And we’ve yet to see any indication that the organization is lining up for a significant payroll increase. Last year, the Mets topped $100MM on Opening Day for the first time since 2011, and there’s probably about $80MM already committed to 2016. There’s less on the books down the line, but a host of outstanding players will be reaching arbitration eligibility and (hopefully) commanding big raises.

It remains interesting to consider, then, whether any pitching assets could be cashed in to facilitate upgrades elsewhere. The most obvious candidate, perhaps, is Niese, whose salary could be re-allocated. But that would remove a layer of security and could require the signing of a swingman type to provide depth. Bartolo Colon has done enough to command a rotation spot, and he won’t likely be cheap, but he’ll be available for a short-term commitment and a return hasn’t been ruled out.

There are some recently-injured arms to consider, too. Youngster Rafael Montero might also be somewhat expendable and would represent a useful trade chip — if he can show that he’s back to full health. It may be less likely at this point, but Wheeler could still be used to help the Mets fill a hole elsewhere. He has the youth, contract control, and upside to be a major piece for a significant addition, though the risk of his Tommy John recovery holds down his value.

The most intriguing, but least likely, scenario involves the four young pitchers who are slated for the 2016 rotation. They’re all huge assets that are valued as such by the Mets. We’ve heard no indication that a trade is a serious consideration, and it’s impossible to imagine a deal at this point that didn’t involve a high-end, controllable young player who could slot right into the New York lineup at a position of need. Matz is arguably the most susceptible to a trade, if only because he’s less established, but there’s a reasonable argument to be made that the club should cash in Harvey now.

One alternative to trading arms is to double down with an extension. Harvey is the closest to free agency, but the Boras client seems unlikely to forgo free agency (thus increasing the appeal of the trade concept). Syndergaard appears worthy of long-term consideration, but both he and the team may want to let things play out a bit more before committing. That leaves deGrom as the candidate who makes the most sense on paper. He wouldn’t be the first 1+ service-time pitcher to sign an extension, as Ricky Romero, Julio Teheran, and Madison Bumgarner have already set a market. It seems likely that the Mets would need to beat Bumgarner’s record $35MM guarantee for a 1+ arm — and not by a little bit — to get something done. Not only has deGrom been unbelievably good (2.61 ERA), he’s also a solid Super Two candidate (1.139 years of service). While deGrom is relatively old at 27, Bumgarner’s pre-2012 contract is rather out of date given the still-rising cost of pitching.

The biggest pitching needs for the Mets probably come in the bullpen. Jeurys Familia turned into a late-inning monster last year, but he has racked up 155 1/3 innings over the last two regular seasons and threw another 14 2/3 in the postseason. He’d probably be pairing with Jenrry Mejia in the late innings, but that talented right-hander could be headed for a non-tender after twice being busted for PEDs. (Either way, he’ll miss about half of 2016 to serve his suspension.) The club does have another set-up option in Addison Reed, who showed a nice turnaround after coming to New York last summer. He’ll be expensive thanks to his steep arbitration starting point, but indications are that the Mets will tender Reed a contract.

Another late-inning righty might be nice, though Hansel Robles had a very nice rookie campaign and Carlos Torres could bounce back from a rough 2015. But left-handed relief is the bigger need. Sean Gilmartin was a nice surprise as a Rule 5 pick-up, and he’ll take one spot. The resurgent Josh Smoker joins Dario Alvarez as 40-man southpaw options, Josh Edgin could return later in the year from Tommy John surgery, and a reunion with injured hurler Jerry Blevins is said to be a consideration. But there’s every reason for the club to pursue a reliable lefty arm. There are several free agents that could fit the bill, led by Antonio Bastardo and Tony Sipp.

Any money spent in the pen, though, would likely reduce the free cash that could be used to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While the club doesn’t have any gaping voids in its lineup, there are certainly areas that could use improvement — especially for an organization that is looking to seize a rare window in which it enjoys cheap and outstanding starting pitching.

When the Mets locked up Juan Lagares last winter, they surely expected he’d be an every day option in center. But that’s now in question, leaving the team weighing a left-handed-hitting complement — if not something more. A player like Will Venable could make sense as a fourth outfielder. If the club wants to add someone for more regular duty, it could be well-positioned to seek value (and take on some health risk) in Denard Span or to swing a trade for Ben Revere of the Blue Jays, Ender Inciarte of the D’backs, or Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies. Free agent Gerardo Parra might stand as a middle-ground option who could function more as a traditional fourth outfielder or take near-regular reps, as circumstances dictate.

Of course, it’s also still at least conceivable that the club could look to shake things up further. The clamor to bring back Yoenis Cespedes seems to have died down. (A return never seemed terribly plausible anyway.) But there are other possibilities. The very top of the market is probably out of reach, but if New York is willing to relegate Lagares to a pure fourth outfielder role, then Dexter Fowler could be a match. (Unlike Span, the switch-hitting Fowler — who hits lefties better than righties — doesn’t make for a natural platoon pairing.) And there’s always the possibility of dealing Lagares, who could hold appeal to teams that believe in him and have a need up the middle. Dealing Lagares after an off year is probably not the optimal scenario from a long-term value perspective, but the Mets’ surprising World Series run has changed the calculus somewhat.

Whoever is added could also see some time in the corners, where Curtis Granderson is aging and Michael Conforto is still not fully established despite a very promising partial season debut. Michael Cuddyer is also still a factor in the outfield, of course, though one wonders whether he’ll need to find more of his time at first base, as an interleague DH, and as a bench bat. Lucas Duda will be expected to continue handling the lion’s share of the time at first, but Cuddyer presents a good option to spell him when southpaws take the hill.

The major complication in the corner infield is David Wright. Some have wondered whether he’ll continue to be a viable defensive option at third with his throws visibly hampered by his back issues. It may be too soon to pull the plug on Wright’s days at third, but he could ultimately follow the path of Ryan Zimmerman of moving across the diamond in the midst of a major extension. At the very least, the Mets need to have some contingency plan in place in the event that Wright’s rather serious back issues cause problems once again.

Wright’s situation only adds to the intrigue up the middle. There’s no shortage of options, but there’s little in the way of certainty. Once-maligned, now heroic shortstop Ruben Tejada may be non-tendered after his bad-luck broken leg in the post-season. Trade deadline redemption man Wilmer Flores was moved off that position late in the year and seems to profile better at second or third. Top shortstop prospect Amed Rosario only just turned 20 and still needs to conquer the upper minors, but Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds are close and ready, respectively. Another highly-regarded youngster, Dilson Herrera, didn’t light the world on fire in his first big league stint but is line for another chance. And Eric Campbell and Danny Muno could factor at second (or, if needed, third).

Given that array of options, there are several approaches that the front office could consider. Holding pat, certainly, is one. Signing Ben Zobrist or even bringing back Daniel Murphy would provide an immediate option at second and/or third, but both free agents are expected to command $12MM or more annually over reasonably lengthy terms. Adding a second baseman, moreover, would likely leave the team with some combination of Flores and Reynolds at short while blocking Herrera. The shortstop market also offers possibilities. Ian Desmond is the biggest (and most expensive) name, but veteran stopgaps like Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins could also make some sense.

It’s also worth wondering whether the Mets could consider trading from its stockpile of middle infielders — especially if a veteran is brought in. We already know that New York is willing to part with Flores, at least in certain circumstances, since he would’ve been the other key piece (with Wheeler) in the nearly-completed Gomez deal. The younger players listed above hold varying degrees of appeal, and one could conceivably be cashed in — possibly in concert with other pieces — to add anything from an established bullpen arm to a center field-capable outfielder.

There’s another area of some depth that could provide Alderson with a trade chip: the catching position. Travis d’Arnaud seems to have cemented himself as the starter heading into 2016 after battling through injury to slash .268/.340/.485 last season. Both d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki drew strong defensive ratings last year, but the latter player — a younger, less experienced option who was pressed into big league duty — didn’t quite prove up to the task. Plawecki, though, still has plenty of promise and trade value, and New York could always rely on Johnny Monell and/or a veteran addition to serve as a reserve option behind d’Arnaud.

Financial constraints still limit the Mets’ maneuverability, and it’s fair for fans of the club to wonder when those restrictions will truly be loosened. (And also to dream on what kind of roster could be compiled this winter with a payroll befitting a New York-based franchise.) But even if the cash outlay will remain modest, there are plenty of creative options available to allow the Mets to capitalize on a good, cheap core and build a roster that can compete for another NL East title — and hope to achieve more.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers’ new-look front office has done a lot of wheeling and dealing already, but there’s more to come as it continues to overhaul the league’s most expensive roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Obligations

  • Matt Kemp, OF: $14MM through 2019 (salary obligations remaining with Dodgers as part of trade with Padres)
  • Michael Morse, OF: unreported portion of $8MM salary for 2016 (likely sufficient to make up all or most of difference between it and Tabata’s salary; agreed to as part of trade with Pirates)

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Brandon Beachy, Zack Greinke (exercised opt-out provision, rejected qualifying offer), Chris Heisey, Jim Johnson, Howie Kendrick (rejected qualifying offer), Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano, Chase Utley

Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi and co. have not been shy at all about taking advantage of the Dodgers’ deep pockets since taking the helm in Los Angeles. But the group has been more freewheeling than free spending in the traditional sense. For example: the club signed Hector Olivera last March, then flipped him (and ate the $28MM signing bonus) in July — before he ever appeared with the major league club — in a trade that brought in Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, Luis Avilan, and rental pieces. In the process, L.A. ate not only Olivera’s signing bonus, but also the tens of millions of dollars owed to Mat Latos, Michael Morse, and Bronson Arroyo.

That wasn’t even the only multi-player deal consummated with Atlanta. In their first year of office, we’ve also seen this front office team ship out a former superstar (and pay down part of the contract), sell a controllable All-Star and flip the key piece of the return for a one-year veteran, acquire the Phillies’ long-time double-play combo (here and here), roll the dice on risky free agent pitching, effectively purchase a draft pick, put late-season trust in an unproven prospect, and spend big internationally (on more than one occasion).

The organization also parted ways with skipper Don Mattingly, who was criticized at times for tactical decisions even as he drew strong reviews for handling a clubhouse full of personalities and payroll. In Mattingly’s place, the Dodgers have tabbed Dave Roberts as the new manager. That move could open the top brass up to criticism, as it’s his first time running a dugout. But, that sort of risk hasn’t seemed to hold sway in Los Angeles (and the Dodgers are hardly the only team to recently hire an inexperienced manager). Roberts will be tasked with leading an expensive, talented, and carefully constructed roster to an NL West crown and beyond.

With such a wide-ranging track record, it’s largely a fool’s errand to predict what the Dodgers’ brain trust will do this winter. But it’s clear what their biggest decision is, at least at this point: whether or not to re-sign Zack Greinke. The right-hander’s opt-out clause was perfectly timed to coincide with a 222 2/3-inning, 1.66 ERA masterpiece of a season. It doesn’t hurt that he held opposing teams to less than three earned per nine in his prior two seasons in L.A. The net result is that he’s going to be extremely expensive, in average annual value if not also years, as a free agent. With potential competition from the rival Giants, the stakes are high. Of course, we’ve also seen the Dodgers connected to varying degrees with top free agents (e.g. David Price, Jordan Zimmermann), and potential trade targets such as Shelby Miller, so it’s prudent at this point to consider all options open.

October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) pitches the second inning against New York Mets in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Whether or not the team brings Greinke back into the fold, moreover, the rotation figures to be an area of focus. That’s true despite the fact that Brett Anderson chose to return on a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer. Clayton Kershaw — the best pitcher in baseball — is firmly ensconced atop the rotation, and Alex Wood joins Anderson as a nice mid-rotation arm. But there’s a lot of uncertainty elsewhere, as Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will each be working back from serious injuries (the former, hopefully, before the latter).

The team isn’t without options behind that group. Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, Zach Lee, and Joe Wieland all have had a taste of the bigs. Jharel Cotton and Chris Anderson could soon be nearing MLB readiness as well. (That’s before considering the team’s two highest-upside young arms — Julio Urias and Jose De Leon — who could theoretically be ready as soon as 2016, but shouldn’t be pushed forward out of necessity.) But for a contending team that has seen its depth tested in recent years, there’s a good argument to be made for adding a veteran, even if Greinke or another top arm signs on.

While the rotation has some questions, the pen is the area that drew the most fan ire last year. But that’s not to say the relief corps has any obvious holes heading into 2016. Kenley Jansen remains a high-leverage stud. The team has right-handed middle-relief and/or set-up options including Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, and Juan Nicasio — every one of whom struck out 10 or more batters per nine and carried a sub-4.00 ERA last year. And the Dodgers return southpaws Luis Avilan and J.P. Howell, with the former coming over in the aforementioned Olivera/Wood swap and the latter exercising his player option.

That looks to be a pretty strong group, and many of the younger rotation options noted above could slide into the pen if a need arose. But there’s still a reasonable argument to be made that the club ought to be proactive. For one thing, there’s only one elite arm in the pen as things stand. For another, that particular elite arm — Jansen — will reach the open market after the season. Whether or not the club will feel at all compelled to line up a replacement for him now, it makes sense that it is at least exploring the relief market for opportunities. We’ve heard talk that players such as Darren O’Day (via free agency) or even Aroldis Chapman (in a trade) might be real considerations.

The position player side of things is less interesting in some ways and more interesting in others. The infield is in good shape: Corey Seager appears set to take over at shortstop after his impressive debut, Adrian Gonzalez is locked in at first, and the Yasmani Grandal/A.J. Ellis pairing behind the dish figures to be maintained.

Los Angeles still has an array of options at second and third, with Justin Turner, Enrique Hernandez, Jose Peraza, and Alex Guerrero all on hand. (The last name on that list, Guerrero, could also end up as trade bait. And Turner is coming off of surgery, though we’ve not heard any indication that he’ll be limited.) Of course, all of those players hit from the right side, so it would be nice to add a lefty-swinging option. The team has been said to have interest in a reunion with Chase Utley, who could fill such a role. While that mix does not scream out for an upgrade, one of those positions could also theoretically be filled from the outside if a great opportunity arose.

Things start to get fun, though, when you turn to the outfield. Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are both expensive, left-handed hitters who should probably be part-time players at this point. Joc Pederson showed both his rather steep upside and the reasons for doubt as he followed up on a huge first half with miserable play down the stretch. Yasiel Puig had his worst season as a big leaguer and continued to generate controversy, though he still carries one of the highest ceilings in all of baseball. Scott Van Slyke took a step back last year but still offers a supplementary right-handed bat. Guerrero (in the corner) as well as Hernandez and even Peraza (up the middle) could also contribute on the grass.

It’s not outlandish to imagine that group remaining intact. Those players represent a fairly intriguing blend of upside and depth, after all, as well as ample lineup construction possibilities. It didn’t prove unworkable to allocate playing time last year with such a wide variety of options. And, after all, there’s always injury and underperformance to account for.

That being said, there are several scenarios where this outfield mix could be shaken up — perhaps significantly. The free agent market is full of quality outfielders, some of whom could be alluring enough to force other transactions to clear space — though we haven’t heard much to suggest that. Even without a major addition, change could make sense. Ethier and Crawford are somewhat redundant, and any cost savings could be re-allocated if a willing trade partner is found. The former, of course, has been much more productive of late and carries more trade value. (Indeed, the remainder of his deal looks manageable, if a bit expensive.) Pederson seems unlikely to be moved, but he’d represent a big chip if the team wants to make a deal without giving up its young pitching prospects.

And then there’s Puig, who draws as many whispers as any player in baseball. There’s still no reason to believe that he’ll be shopped, per se, but if L.A. is really open to trading him the possibilities are more or less endless. Given his talent, established ceiling, and cost/control, it’s hard to imagine any team in baseball that wouldn’t be intrigued. It’d be hard to sell him now after a down season, as the return surely wouldn’t be what it might’ve been last winter, but Puig still represents a (hypothetical) centerpiece to a major deal — possibly one that would return a high-end, controllable starter.

One thing that’s clear is that there are relatively few limitations on what the Dodgers can do. Even if the goal is to pare back the payroll, the organization has not only immense spending capacity but also high-end, controllable talent (at the majors and in the minors) from which to deal. That creates an opportunity and sets an expectation for the creative front office.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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Fans of Kansas City baseball were treated to a World Series title for the first time in 30 years in 2015, but there’s little time for GM Dayton Moore and his staff to rest, as the club will have a number of holes to fill this winter as it seeks a return to the promised land in 2016.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yordano Ventura, SP: $21.25MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)
  • Omar Infante, 2B: $17.75MM through 2017 (includes buyout of 2018 option)
  • Jason Vargas, SP: $16.5MM through 2017
  • Edinson Volquez, SP: $12.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 option)
  • Wade Davis, RP: $10.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 option)
  • Kendrys Morales, DH: $9MM through 2016 (plus 2017 mutual option)
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $8.25MM through 2016 (arbitration eligible following 2016 season)
  • Alcides Escobar, SS: $5.75MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 option)
  • Luke Hochevar, RP: $5.5MM through 2016 (plus 2017 mutual option)
  • Kris Medlen, SP/RP: 5.5MM through 2016 (plus 2017 mutual option)
  • Kelvin Herrera, RP: $2.55MM through 2016 (arbitration eligible following 2016 season)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $2MM through 2016 (plus three club options)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • Alex Gordon, $14MM player option: Gordon declined
  • Wade Davis, $8MM club option: Exercised
  • Alcides Escobar, $5.25MM club option: Exercised
  • Alex Rios, $12.5MM mutual option: Royals declined ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Jeremy Guthrie, $10MM mutual option: Royals declined ($3.2MM buyout)

Free Agents

While Royals fans celebrate the highest pinnacle in baseball, they’re left perhaps with a bittersweet taste in their mouths knowing that Game 5 of the World Series could have been the last in franchise icon Alex Gordon’s career with the team. Gordon is a free agent after declining a player option and a qualifying offer and will test the open market this winter in search of a significant deal. While some might hope to see Gordon take a discount to remain in Kansas City, his initial contract extension with the Royals proved quite favorable for the team, and he may now look to max out his market. Early indications are that the Royals are hoping to retain Gordon on a three- or four-year deal, but I expect clubs to be willing to offer five years, or at the very least, four years at an extremely premium annual value (think Hanley Ramirez money).

The Royals have never given out a contract worth more than $55MM, but if they’re to retain any of their top three free agents, that’s probably going to have to change. Zobrist is the possible exception, but he’s already been linked to roughly a dozen teams and is said to be seeking a four-year pact. If Zobrist does receive four years, it’ll be for more than $55MM in total. Cueto seems bound for a $100MM+ contract somewhere despite some late struggles — his dominant World Series effort probably quelled concerns to some degree, though there are still some red flags — and that type of contract is difficult to envision from the Royals.

Kansas City, then, could face the notion of needing to find a new left fielder, a possible right field upgrade, a second base upgrade, at least one (possibly two) starting pitcher(s) and multiple arms to fill out the bullpen. The front office is riding high on the team’s 2015 success, but Moore and his staff know there’s no shortage of work to be done, and the resources to accomplish that work might be tighter than many realize.

They Royals are already sitting at a projected $90.3MM in payroll, assuming they tender only Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy and Jarrod Dyson from their class of arb-eligible players. There are undoubtedly some additional World Series funds in Dayton Moore’s war chest, but when factoring in league-minimum players, the Royals are around $95.4MM — or only about $17MM shy of last year’s club-record $112.8MM Opening Day payroll. It should be noted that the Royals do have insurance on the contract of Jason Vargas, who had Tommy John surgery this past summer. The Kansas City Star’s Andy McCullough reported at the time that the team will get about $6MM of his $8.5MM salary back if he does not pitch next season, creating the potential for a bit more financial breathing room. Nonetheless, a return for either Zobrist or Gordon could bring them within striking distance of last year’s mark while only addressing one of the aforementioned needs.

The Royals are set behind the plate, where Salvador Perez, as most know, has one of the most team-friendly contracts in recent memory. He’s guaranteed $2MM next season and has three club options on his deal which range from $3.75MM (2017) to $6MM (2019). There’s been talk of extending Perez to make him a Royal for life, but from a pure baseball perspective, I’m not sure I see a reason to do so — at least not at this time. Perez is already under control cheaply through his age-29 season. As it stands, he’ll hit the open market entering his age-30 season and coming off an eight-year Royals career in which he’s been more heavily used than any catcher in the game. Perez caught 137 games in 2013, 146 (!) in 2014 and 139 in 2015 (not including postseason games). If that usage pattern continues, there’s no telling how his body will age, especially considering the fact that his 6’3″, 240-pound frame is rather large for a catcher in the first place. An extension that begins in 2020 seems overly risky from the team’s vantage point.

Turning to the infield, Eric Hosmer is a lock at first base, and there’s no doubt as to who will be manning shortstop (Alcides Escobar) or third base (Moustakas). The one possible area of upgrade, as previously mentioned, is at second base. Omar Infante is earning $7.75MM next season and has a sizable amount of money remaining on his contract, but he’s batted a dreadful .238/.268/.329 in two years with the Royals. That type of production won’t cut it for a contending club, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Royals shopped Infante around to see about lining up on an exchange of bad contracts. One speculative trade scenario would be to swap Infante for Milwaukee’s Matt Garza. While he’s owed more money, Garza could rebound in Kansas City’s large park and with their tremendous defense, making him a more palatable allocation of finances. (And, from the Brewers’ vantage point, Infante could fill in around a thin infield and would save them some money.)

If Infante is still in Kansas City next season, it could be in a bench role with either Christian Colon or an external addition slotting into the everyday role. That could mean a reunion with Zobrist on a three-year deal in the $16-18MM-per-year range — Zobrist has spoken highly of his time in Kansas City and resides in the relatively nearby Nashville, Tenn. — or a run at one of several free-agent second basemen. Howie Kendrick strikes me as a Royals-esque target, given his perennially high contact rate and his track record of solid defense (even if metrics like UZR and DRS felt he slowed down in 2015). Kendrick probably requires at least a three-year deal as well, however, if not four years, though I can envision a lesser annual rate than that of Zobrist in his case. Nevertheless, it’d make for a risky investment by the Royals. Chase Utley would be a more affordable alternative, though he’s far from a sure thing himself.

In the outfield, Cain will reprise his role as one of the game’s most valuable all-around players in center field. Last winter’s Alex Rios signing never paid full dividends, as he suffered a broken hand early in the season and was never terribly productive. The Royals could go with a platoon of Dyson and Paulo Orlando in right field, but the club balked at pursuing a platoon scenario with Dyson upon Nori Aoki’s departure following the 2014 season, so perhaps they’ll look for another full-time solution to keep Dyson in a reserve role.

Korean outfielder Ah-seop Son makes plenty of contact and has been favorably compared to Aoki. We’ll learn the outcome of Son’s posting next week, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kansas City take a look. Aoki himself is again a free agent, though he dealt with concussion issues late in the season. Gerardo Parra is another affordable corner option that fits the Royals’ profile, and a pursuit of either Austin Jackson or Denard Span has some logic behind it, if the allure of playing for the reigning World Champs makes either free agent more amenable to shifting out of center field.

The rotation is a clear area of need for Kansas City, as Cueto, Chris Young and Jeremy Guthrie are all free agents (though Guthrie lost his rotation spot this season anyhow). Additionally, the team will probably be without Jason Vargas until at least August or September, as the veteran lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late July.

That leaves Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy and Kris Medlen as rotation options, and there’s plenty of uncertainty within that group. Ventura was demoted to Triple-A but recalled before making an appearance down there due to Vargas’ injury. While he was much improved after that possible wake-up call, he’s yet to demonstrate prolonged consistency in the Majors. Duffy logged a 4.35 ERA, 4.65 FIP and 4.80 xFIP as a starter last season before shining in a relief role. He’ll probably return to the rotation, but he’s never topped 155 innings in a season and hasn’t held up for a full year in the rotation. Medlen tossed a combined 88 2/3 innings in returning from his second Tommy John surgery, making an increase of 100 or so innings a lot to ask.

Bringing back Young, whose extreme fly-ball skill set meshes quite well with Kauffman Stadium and the Royals’ emphasis on outfield defense, could be a nice low-cost way to add some of the needed innings for Kansas City. Other low-cost options could include Colby Lewis and Mike Pelfrey.

Of course, the Royals don’t necessarily need to limit themselves to the bargain bin. While a run at David Price or a Zack Greinke reunion doesn’t seem realistic, Kansas City could play in the middle tier of rotation arms if owner David Glass is comfortable escalating the payroll beyond 2015’s Opening Day mark. Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy are among the names whose annual values shouldn’t break the bank, and Kansas City could continue to employ its usage of mutual options to offset some of the early costs on a contract. Medlen, Morales, Hochevar and Volquez could each depart following the 2016 season, so backloading some contracts is an avenue that the Royals will consider. Kennedy, Pelfrey and perhaps Wei-Yin Chen, in particular, are plausible targets given Scott Boras’ seemingly strong relationship with ownership and the front office. (Hosmer, Moustakas, Rios, Hochevar, Colon, Holland and both Franklin and Kendrys Morales are repped by Boras.)

Trades, too, will be an avenue worth exploring. Options are vast, though in addition to the aforementioned Garza/Infante bad-contract swap, Oakland’s Jesse Chavez is reported to be available and would serve as an affordable name with whom the Royals are familiar. (Chavez pitched in Kansas City back in 2010-11 before breaking out with the A’s.) The names of Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran have both circulated in the rumor mill as well, though the cost of acquisition on either player would be high.

Whatever route the front office chooses, external rotation options are needed, as many of the arms from Kansas City’s once-vaunted farm system have graduated to the Majors (Duffy, Ventura) or been traded. John Lamb and Brandon Finnegan, for instance, went to Cincinnati in the Cueto deal, while Jake Odorizzi went to Tampa in the James Shields/Wil Myers trade. (Although, in retrospect, perhaps we should begin referring to that as the Wade Davis/Jake Odorizzi trade.)

As dominant as Kansas City’s bullpen has been in recent years, it’s going to be an area of need this winter. Brilliant closer Greg Holland pitched the better part of a year with a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Kansas City will non-tender Holland but hopes to work out a backloaded two-year deal to keep him in the organization. Regardless of the result of those efforts, Holland isn’t pitching in 2016.

That moves Davis into the closer’s role, which he’s more than equipped to handle. Kelvin Herrera can serve as his primary setup man, and the team will hope for Hochevar to look more like his dominant 2013 self than his 2015 self. That’s not to say he had a poor year — Hochevar, in fact, was quite solid in his first year back from Tommy John — but the blow of losing Holland would be softened were Hochevar to again deliver a sub-2.00 ERA.

The Royals are losing reclamation projects Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales to free agency and will need to replace both, in addition to Holland. Tim Collins will be back from his own Tommy John at some point, but a left-handed reliever should be acquired in some capacity. Tony Sipp is said to be a target of the Royals. As far as right-handed options to replace Madson and Holland, the Royals are believed to be interested in a reunion with Joakim Soria, but his price tag will be quite high. Shawn Kelley, Mark Lowe and Korean right-hander Seung-hwan Oh could all be more affordable options, to name a few.

While that, of course, is a rather lengthy to-do list for Moore and his staff, many of the pieces for a contending club are already in place. Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Perez and Escobar is a nice group of position players to build around, and a bullpen anchored by Davis and Herrera will be formidable. The rotation looks suspect at the moment, but there will be additions made, and Kansas City’s elite defense and huge park should benefit whatever collection of arms comprises next year’s rotation, much as it has the past two seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Despite losing ace Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, the Rangers shocked everyone with a return to the postseason. Now, they’ll look to build toward a 2016 return despite possibly losing a few key contributors to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B/DH: $120MM through 2020 ($6MM paid annually by Tigers)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $103MM through 2022 (can opt out after 2018 or 2019 seasons)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $102MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $73.5MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $21MM through 2017
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2016
  • Derek Holland, $11.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 option)
  • Martin Perez, SP: $9.75MM through 2017 (includes buyout of 2018 option)
  • Josh Hamilton, OF: About $6MM through 2017 (can opt out after 2016 season)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Most pundits were throwing dirt on the Rangers’ grave as early as March. The news of Yu Darvish’s Tommy John surgery and pre-existing injuries to Derek Holland, Martin Perez and others led observers to wonder how Texas could conceivably contend in a tough AL West — especially considering no one knew what to expect from Prince Fielder coming off 2014 neck surgery.

As we know now, the story played out quite differently. Fielder returned with a flourish, earning American League Comeback Player of the Year honors. The club rode early, albeit unsustainable hot streaks from the likes of Nick Martinez and Wandy Rodriguez, each of whom helped bridge the gap to the return of Holland and Perez. Shawn Tolleson stepped up and solidified the ninth inning after former Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz was designated for assignment and released. Everything seemed to click for the Rangers, whose outlook heading into 2016 already looks vastly improved.

That’s due, in large part, to the fact that the Rangers effectively did some of their offseason shopping in July. The loss of the five prospects with which GM Jon Daniels parted to acquire Hamels undoubtedly stung, but the Rangers softened the blow by convincing the Phillies to surrender live-armed lefty setup man Jake Diekman, take on the remainder of Matt Harrison’s contract and include $9.5MM in cash. Hamels will probably be the Opening Day starter for Texas next season unless Darvish is ready to go for the opener. Regardless of their ordering, that duo will create a formidable one-two punch for second-year manager Jeff Banister.

The Rangers have Holland, Perez, Martinez, former first-rounder Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Tepesch as internal rotation options to fill in behind the co-aces, but there’s still interest in re-signing Colby Lewis, and a reunion with Fort Worth native Yovani Gallardo can’t be ruled out. Gallardo should command at least a three-year deal, if not four, but the Rangers made sure to recoup some value by a qualifying offer to the right-hander, so they’ll secure a 2016 draft pick if he’s not retained.

Adding a starting pitcher is said to be a priority for the Rangers, and I’d imagine they’ll look to add an arm even if a new pact with Lewis is reached. Lewis delivered 204 innings for an injury-hampered club, but he turned 36 in August and logged a 4.66 ERA (4.17 FIP) this season. If he can be had on a one-year deal, it could make sense to lock down those innings but still bring in a younger arm that can be relied upon for better results.

It’s not clear whether the Rangers would be open to free agents that require draft pick forfeiture, but reports early in the offseason indicated that they’d only be interested in Matt Wieters if the Orioles’ catcher did not receive a QO. (Of course, Wieters did receive one and made the surprising decision to accept, so he’s not a consideration anymore.) If the team is intent upon keeping its pick, then the free agent pitching options could include names like J.A. Happ, Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, Mike Leake, Mike Pelfrey, and Chris Young.

Of course, that prior report on Wieters also seems to indicate an openness to upgrading at catcher. Daniels has expressed a willingness to do so this winter, but the need isn’t as strong as many would think. Robinson Chirinos is far from a household name, but the 31-year-old batted .232/.325/.438 with 13 homers this season to go along with more or less average pitch-framing numbers and a solid 29 percent caught-stealing rate. He’s not a defensive wizard nor is he an elite slugger, but his bat is above-average for a catcher, he’s a competent defender and he can be had for little more than the league-minimum. Wins above replacement pegs Chirinos at about four wins over the past two seasons (4.2 rWAR, 3.8 fWAR). That’s a useful starter, especially at his price, and clear free-agent upgrades aren’t readily available, especially with Wieters and A.J. Pierzynski off the market. Jonathan Lucroy could potentially be a sizable upgrade, but he finished the year battling post-concussion symptoms, casting some doubt on his ability to get behind the dish every day. (He played only first base upon return from the disabled list.) The Brewers would probably be open to moving him for a significant return, but they may be able to extract more from an acquiring team if Lucroy is traded this summer once he demonstrates his health. Whenever he’s made available, the Rangers will probably at least check in.

Looking around the infield, the Rangers are set with Mitch Moreland at first base, Rougned Odor at second, Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Adrian Beltre at third base. In the event that either corner option falls to injury — each has had some struggles with the injury bug in recent years — prospect Joey Gallo could again enter the fold. Gallo wowed early in his Major League debut, but his penchant for strikeouts was soon exposed. He ultimately landed in Triple-A and struggled to make contact there as well. Still, Gallo is a potential 40-homer threat, and the Rangers may want to find a way to see him in the Majors for an extended time next year, as he could be the team’s regular third baseman as soon as 2017.

Texas will probably shop Andrus’ unfortunate contract around to see if there are any takers for the 27-year-old, but that’s not likely (at least, not without the Rangers taking on a similarly undesirable deal or absorbing an enormous amount of cash). Andrus’ bat never developed like Texas hoped, and it in fact regressed heavily following the 2012 season. Defensive metrics have been down on Andrus over the past two seasons as well, with his once premium ratings slipping to well below-average over that two-year span.

One idea that the Rangers are said to be considering is a long-term contract for Odor. Still just 21 years old, Odor looked utterly lost early in the season, and a .144/.252/.233 batting line in mid-May finally earned him a demotion back to the minors. Odor remained at Triple-A for about five weeks before returning with a 3-for-3 showing on June 15. That big game set the tone for the rest of his season, as the highly touted young infielder would hit an incredible .292/.334/.527 with 15 home runs over his final 91 games. That’s outstanding production for any second baseman, let alone one who is younger than the average player in the Class-A Midwest League. An extension would guarantee Odor his first fortune while possibly extending the Rangers’ club control into Odor’s free agent years by a season or two. Odor currently projects to be a free agent heading into his age-27 season, so he can still hit the open market at a young age even if he signs away a free agent year in exchange for his first major payday.

The X-factor in the infield is shortstop Jurickson Profar. Formerly ranked the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, Profar’s career has stalled after he twice ripped a muscle in his shoulder, requiring a pair of surgeries and a lengthy rehabilitation. Profar is making up for some lost time by playing in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s been DHing there and still needs to work his way back up to full-time fielding efforts. If it seems like forever ago that Profar homered in his first Major League at-bat, that’s because that long ball occurred back in 2012. The Rangers almost certainly wouldn’t sell this low by trading Profar now, especially when he’s so close to a possible Major League return. They’ll instead see if he can handle some time in the middle infield next year, possibly starting him out at Triple-A while working him back in with the glove. In the unlikely event that the team is able to find a taker for Andrus, the Rangers could bring in a veteran shortstop like Cliff Pennington or Clint Barmes (if not a more expensive option like Alexei Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins) to handle shortstop and hope that Profar can eventually slide into regular reps there. Or, young Hanser Alberto, who filled in admirably for the injured Beltre in late 2015, could see some time there.

In the outfield, Choo’s contract isn’t exactly favorable in its own right, but his second half makes it look far less daunting for the Rangers. The 33-year-old delivered a strong August and a Herculean September to end with a .343/.455/.560 second-half batting line. He won’t repeat the .420 BABIP that he logged following the break, but Choo walked at a 14.4 percent clip and slugged 11 homers over his final 305 plate appearances, so the improved production wasn’t all BABIP smoke and mirrors. Perhaps it’s not enough to convince a team to take on Choo’s contract in a trade, but it’s enough that the team can feel more comfortable that he can hold down a prominent role heading into the 2016 campaign.

The Rangers’ first major move of the offseason was to ship out Leonys Martin in an intradivision trade that netted Tom Wilhelmsen, James Jones and a player to be named later from the Mariners. In doing so, Texas essentially named Delino DeShields Jr. its starting center fielder. He’ll receive the bulk of the at-bats there and bring plenty of speed to the top of the order. A left-handed hitting backup option might be worth considering, though Jones, acquired in the Martin trade, could fill that role, and DeShields’ .334 OBP versus right-handers in 2015 doesn’t suggest that a platoon is necessary.

Hamilton is in line to receive quite a bit of playing time as well, but he underwent a second minor knee operation this winter and struggled to stay healthy in 2015. The Rangers picked him up on the cheap from the Angels and aren’t heavily invested in Hamilton from a financial standpoint, so I don’t envision him standing in the way of a significant bat, should an opportunity present itself. A right-handed bat is said to be something Daniels and Co. are seeking this offseason, and left field would make a reasonable place to deploy that bat. However, a run at Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes could simply be deemed too pricey. Texas already has $76.5MM committed as far out as the 2018 season and $54MM in both 2019 and 2020. Adding another $20MM+ salary to the ledger for those seasons this far in advance is a risky endeavor and probably shouldn’t be deemed likely unless the club shuffles some salary by dealing Andrus or Choo.

Perhaps a more likely scenario would be an addition in the Steve Pearce mold — a player who can at least platoon with Hamilton in left field and can also fill in for Mitch Moreland at first base if needed. Pearce crushes left-handed pitching and would bring a bit of versatility to the table as an emergency option elsewhere around the infield (he played some second base in Baltimore in 2015). Texas could pursue a reunion with Mike Napoli, who filled that role last year, but Napoli’s left-field experience is limited to 2015, whereas Pearce has more than 2,000 innings of outfield experience between the Majors and Minors.

With Tolleson, Wilhelmsen, July acquisition Sam Dyson (one of the most underrated trade pickups of the year) and brilliant rookie Keone Kela serving as right-handed bullpen options and Diekman representing a terrific left-handed option, there’s a lot of talent in the bullpen. Sam Freeman is a potential second lefty after logging a 3.05 ERA in 38 1/3 innings, but while Freeman struck out 40 hitters in that time he also walked 25 men — an average of nearly six free passes per nine innings. A lefty with better control is something the Rangers may consider, and there’s the possibility that they’ll pursue a more proven ninth-inning arm. Tolleson was great for much of the season but did wilt late in the year. Then again, that could have something to do with Banister’s alarming decision to pitch Tolleson on five consecutive days from late September into early October.

The bottom line for the Rangers is that a team that was little more than an afterthought seven months ago is now entering the offseason with firm expectations of contending in 2016. Daniels and his staff will look to supplement the team’s lineup and rotation with complementary pieces, knowing full well that much of the club’s core is already in place.

2015-16 Offseason Outlook Series

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The MLBTR staff has been hard at work on our annual Offseason Outlook series.  This post will be updated to include links to all the completed articles, and will be available under MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar on the desktop version of the site.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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For the first time in a while, the Nationals enter the winter with a variety of question marks and a lack of linear solutions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Scherzer, SP: $190MM through 2021 ($105MM deferred, payable in seven installments of $15MM over 2022-2028)
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: $72MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option, $10MM personal services contract)
  • Jayson Werth, OF: $42MM through 2017
  • Gio Gonzalez, SP: $12.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Jonathan Papelbon, RP: $11MM through 2016 ($3MM deferred to 2017)
  • Yunel Escobar, INF: $8MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Bryce Harper, OF: $5MM through 2016 (remains eligible for arbitration through 2018)

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Options

Free Agents

Ian Desmond (declined qualifying offer), Doug Fister, Denard Span, Matt Thornton, Jordan Zimmermann (declined qualifying offer)

The 2015 season was filled with disappointment and controversy for the Nats, who entered the year heavily favored in the NL East. Underperformance abounded on a talented roster, much as occurred in 2013, and GM Mike Rizzo will now look for a similar bounce back.

Once again, there will be a new skipper in the dugout, though this time the outgoing manager (Matt Williams) was fired. (Davey Johnson’s retirement had long been planned.) Dusty Baker got the nod, but not until the team had engaged in a highly publicized dalliance with Bud Black. Washington was openly mocked for reportedly looking to get a manager on the cheap, though the team obviously reached terms with Baker and seems to have spent big on highly-regarded new pitching coach Mike Maddux.

That was hardly the way the team wanted to start the winter — especially after a late fade punctuated by an ugly dugout fight in which high-price closer Jonathan Papelbon tried to choke superstar Bryce Harper.

In many ways, that incident frames the team’s offseason. Papelbon was the team’s major deadline addition, unseating Drew Storen as the closer but bringing the promise of an excellent 1-2 punch in the late innings. That combo started out well, but it (and the team’s season) fell apart as Williams mismanaged, Storen faded, and Papelbon raged.

Now, the question is whether the Nationals will shop Papelbon, Storen, or both. Harper has reportedly chatted with Papelbon in an effort at conciliation. And GM Mike Rizzo says that both righties will remain with the team unless a “real baseball offer” comes in. That leaves at least some window for either or both to stay on in D.C. for the final year of their respective contracts.

Of course, the club badly needs pen arms. Washington has been tied to upper-tier trade candidates such as Aroldis Chapman since the trade deadline, and is one of many teams with reported interest in top free agent Darren O’Day. Significant additions of that kind would probably enter the picture (and the payroll) as Papelbon and/or Storen depart.

Regardless what happens at the back end, the Nats face a lot of questions in the pen. Lefty Felipe Rivero, an underappreciated piece of the Jose Lobaton/Nate Karns deal, had a nice rookie campaign. Righty Blake Treinen still has a huge arm, though he’ll need to take a step forward in harnessing it. We’ve yet to hear conclusively whether the team will take the risk on Craig Stammen and his projected $2.4MM salary after he missed the entire season with arm surgery. He’s expected to be ready for the spring, but even if he’s healthy, he’ll only be stepping back into the void left by Aaron Barrett, who’ll miss most or all of 2016. David Carpenter is another injury/arb question mark. There are other options in the organization, including Rafael Martin, Sammy Solis, and Matt Grace,

Tanner Roark could end up back in the pen if he’s bumped from the rotation, and some less experienced starters — A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan, Taylor Hill, and Austin Voth — potentially could as well. But there are a lot of question marks in that group, and it seems likely that the Nationals will be hunting for relief arms at all levels of the market.

The rotation, on the other hand is set … probably. You could’ve said the same last year, after all, and the club added Max Scherzer on top of an already highly-regarded staff. That group fell shy of expectations, and will lose Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, but still ought to be pretty good. Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez form a good (and potentially excellent) trio at the top, Joe Ross was highly impressive in his debut last year, and Roark still profiles as a sturdy innings eater. The club also has some options and upside behind that group, with Cole perhaps ready for a real opportunity and consensus top overall pitching prospect Lucas Giolito not far behind (and ascending at a rapid pace).

Of course, Ross was mistakenly overlooked by many when news broke that he’d been traded to D.C. Taking top billing in that swap was Trea Turner, a swift young shortstop who got a brief taste of the big leagues last year. It will be quite a lot to ask of him to step in directly for the departing Ian Desmond — who, it should be noted, leaves big shoes despite a rough 2015 — but the Nats have other options as well. Yunel Escobar was acquired last winter due, in part, to his ability to step in at short for 2016. Danny Espinosa remains an outstanding defender and showed more with the bat last year, making him a platoon option up the middle. And Turner could ultimately be joined by another promising youngster, Wilmer Difo, as a double-play pairing. He, too, got a cup of coffee last year with the big club and could conceivably enter the picture this coming season.

The aforementioned group of players could combine in some form to occupy the middle infield positions. But we’ve heard whispers that the team could consider trading away Escobar, possibly in a reversal of the move (well-compensated reliever for well-compensated infielder) that brought him to D.C. in the first place. In that scenario, perhaps, the club would add a left-handed-hitting infielder to join the mix. Turner and Escobar, like most of the other Nats regulars, hit from the right side. And while Espinosa and Difo are both switch hitters, both are historically much more effective against southpaws.

It might not be out of the question, then, for the team to pursue a player like Daniel Murphy or Ben Zobrist. Both would add another left-handed bat to a heavily right-handed mix while contributing depth to the infield. (The latter hits from both sides of the plate.) Fellow free agent Kelly Johnson might represent a budget version of that type of player.

Adding another infield piece makes all the more sense when one considers the durability questions that still follow both Anthony Rendon and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, both of whom are all but certain (injuries aside) to occupy the starting jobs at the infield corners. Much the same holds for left fielder Jayson Werth, who is aging and has been on the DL quite a bit recently — though, generally, his stints have been for acute injuries that might not reflect any particular long-term concerns.

There are in-house reserve options at the corners, but there are limits to their function. First baseman, bench bat, and emergency outfielder Clint Robinson did a nice job at the plate and could represent a cheap piece to pair with Zimmerman, he’s of limited utility in the National League given his poor glove on the grass. Much the same holds true of right-handed power source Tyler Moore, except that he doesn’t have as obvious a function on the team. A more versatile utility piece — such as those mentioned above — would also supply some support in the outfield while opening up opportunities to gain the platoon advantage.

Of course, there’s a more direct outfield need in center. Denard Span is hitting free agency, and the fact that he didn’t receive a qualifying offer — making him, arguably, the most eligible candidate who did not — signals that there’s little likelihood of a reunion. That leaves the toolsy but strikeout-prone Michael A. Taylor in position to take over. He’s a premier defender with legitimate power and wheels on the basepaths, but he’s still a question mark in terms of getting on base.

With Taylor ready but still raw, the club appears to have two primary routes available. The easier, more straightforward one would be to add a quality fourth outfielder who is capable of playing center and swings from the left side (so as to complement Taylor and also Werth). Though Matt den Dekker could fill that role, too, the team will probably try to do better while keeping him around for depth.

On this year’s free agent market, Gerardo Parra makes for the most obvious fit, and the Nats reportedly tried to add him at the trade deadline. A swap might also procure that sort of option. Rizzo has shown a proclivity for dealing for veterans on affordable, mid-length contracts, with Span, Fister, and Lobaton all representing examples. Brett Gardner of the Yankees, Leonys Martin of the Rangers, and Ender Inciarte of the Diamondbacks are a few names that come to mind, and all of those teams could well have interest in Storen in a swap. The Blue Jays, too, might like the idea of building out the back of their pen and could stand to part with Ben Revere. And depending upon what direction the Cardinals go, Jon Jay could be a target.

The catching position also carries some uncertainty. Wilson Ramos had a tough season in 2015, and is now just one year away from free agency. The same as true of Lobaton, the switch-hitting reserve, who could theoretically end up non-tendered despite his reasonable salary. It’s not as if there’s a ready replacement coming through the minors, as the team’s nearest catching prospect — 22-year-old Pedro Severino — hasn’t yet shown enough bat to profile as an upper-division regular. There was some reason to believe that Washington could make a run at Matt Wieters in free agency, but obviously there wasn’t enough interest there for the backstop to decline his qualifying offer, and he’s no longer available. An upgrade, if any, would have to come via trade. While that’s far from certain at this point, one would have to think the Nats would at least want to know the price on Jonathan Lucroy if he’s shopped.

If Rizzo (or his bosses) wants to shake things up, it’s not out of the question for the Nats to add a major free agent in the outfield. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pegged D.C. as the likeliest landing spot for the tough-to-call Justin Upton. Presumably, an addition of that kind would mean that Harper — or, potentially the new player himself — would play somewhat out of position in center. Personally, I see Jason Heyward as the best match of the major free agent outfielders, since he hits from the left side and would probably be the most capable defender in center of the bunch. As I explained in a profile of his free agent case, Heyward also might command a slightly lesser AAV and could seek an opt-out clause. And the Nationals’ ownership has shown quite an affinity for complicated contract structures that spread financial commitments out over time. But those possibilities still seem fairly speculative. Indeed, Rizzo said recently that he doesn’t expect the team to “be big players for one of the big free agent outfielders.”

Truly bold action could come from elsewhere. Strasburg showed that he can still produce at an ace level down the stretch last year, and would be a highly appealing rental arm at his salary. The Nationals would surely be able to find a substantial return if they shopped him, and the team was reportedly willing to consider deals last winter for Desmond and Zimmermann. I suspect that Rizzo would be willing to move him in the right deal, but am skeptical that a sufficient offer would come in.

More likely, albeit still rather remote, is the extension route. Strasburg may be too close now to free agency to take a serious pass at negotiations, particularly since he looks like the best pitcher on next year’s market by a landslide. But his down-and-up 2015 could leave him willing to sacrifice some money to relieve some risk. Similarly, now could be the time to float a proposal to Rendon, who had an injury-filled 2015, though he’s still four years from free agency. And, of course, there’s always the at-least-theoretical possibility of getting something done with Harper, who met and exceeded the enormous expectations with a historically-relevant campaign last year. Locking him up, in turn, might well require a record-setting contract — a topic that I explored and put to a reader vote a little while back.

Rumors of the Nationals’ demise are premature. True, the core of the team is no longer the same as the 2012 iteration and its successors. But many of the same pieces are still in place, and the organization has supplemented quite nicely. Indeed, as noted above, a whole new wave of talent — Ross, Giolito, Turner, Taylor, and more — is not only lined up but designed to fit with the team’s needs. But patience only holds so long when the talent level (and payroll) is as high as it has been in recent campaigns, and Rizzo will need to be at his creative best to re-energize the big league roster without sacrificing too much prospect value and/or spending capacity.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

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The Angels remained in Wild Card contention until the final day of the season but ultimately fell short to the Astros for that spot. With a playoff miss in the books, the 2015 campaign may now be remembered more for the disintegration of the front office than the on-field product. A new regime will look to return the Halos to postseason baseball next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Contract Options

  • David Murphy, OF: $7MM club option with a $500K buyout — Declined
  • David DeJesus, OF: $5MM club option with a $1MM buyout — Declined

Free Agents

Other Financial Commitments

The series of events that will perhaps have the largest impact on the Angels’ offseason began over the summer, when then-GM Jerry Dipoto abruptly resigned over differences with manager Mike Scioscia and his coaching staff. Reports at the time indicated that Dipoto was frustrated by the field staff’s resistance to implementing information from the club’s analytics department. (Now-former pitching coach Mike Butcher has since been reported to have been heavily resistant as well.) Owner Arte Moreno, it would seem, endorsed his manager over his GM, prompting Dipoto’s exit. Former GM Bill Stoneman assumed the vacated post for the remainder of the year, and Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler was tabbed as the new GM shortly after their season ended.

Dipoto’s exit isn’t the only change, however, as assistant GMs Scott Servais and Matt Klentak have both departed. Servais will serve as manager of the Mariners, where Dipoto was hired as general manager, and Klentak was the hand-picked choice of Phillies president Andy MacPhail to succeed Ruben Amaro Jr. as GM. Special assistant Tim Bogar joined Servais in the Seattle dugout as the club’s bench coach. Suffice it to say, there will be a different brain trust making the calls in Anaheim this offseason.

And that new brain trust hasn’t taken any time to make an impact on the organization. A confession: this post was written and ready to go a few days ago, but it didn’t get onto the site with all of the activity going on at the GM Meetings. No big deal, right? It’s not like the Angels would do something to drastically re-structure the fabric of their organization in the few days between– Oh. Rewrite it is, then!

Eppler’s first move as GM might technically have been to claim Todd Cunningham off waivers last month, but everyone will remember that less than two months into his tenure, the Angels swung a blockbuster deal that sent Erick Aybar, left-hander Sean Newcomb and right-hander Chris Ellis to the Braves in exchange for Andrelton Simmons and minor leaguer Jose Briceno. With this trade, the Angels have dramatically altered the long-term configuration of their infield, proactively acquiring the game’s premier defensive player (sorry, Jason Heyward) in advance of a 2016-17 shortstop market that looks barren and will most likely be headlined by the very guy over whom the Halos would’ve been looking to upgrade (Aybar). Acquiring Simmons technically knocks $2.5MM off the 2016 payroll, but they’re covering that difference by sending the cash to the Braves, anyhow. The takeaway from the trade is that shortstop won’t be an issue for the Angels for the next half-decade.

What it means for the rest of the offseason is harder to figure, because the Halos didn’t really address an immediate need and burned some significant trade pieces in the process. There are still plenty of holes to address, and free agency now looks like the primary way to do it. That could mean that the team will need to be willing to forfeit draft picks to sign significant free agents.

The sting of sacrificing draft selections might have been lessened if the Angels had made a qualifying offer to David Freese on his way out the door. But there was a risk he’d have accepted, and the team ultimately elected to let him hit free agency unencumbered by draft pick compensation. Los Angeles still has interest in re-signing Freese at an annual rate less than the QO, though Freese currently leads a thin crop of free-agent third basemen, so he should have interest elsewhere also.

The Halos currently have about $145MM committed to next year’s payroll between guaranteed contracts, arbitration eligible players (minus non-tender candidate Collin Cowgill) and the $24MM they owe the Rangers for Josh Hamilton’s salary. The luxury tax ledger is calculated a bit differently — it’s based on average annual value of their contracts — but should come in just a few million north of that sum as it stands.

That outlook clears up significantly after 2016, when C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Joe Smith are all free agents, although some of those departures highlight a clear need for the Angels this winter; starting pitching help that is controlled beyond 2016 will be a goal. When he was GM, Dipoto’s long-stated mission was to acquire cost-controlled arms, and he did well to acquire Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Hector Santiago and Nick Tropeano via trades. However, Tropeano hasn’t proven himself in the Majors, and Skaggs is coming off Tommy John surgery from August of 2014. It’s nice to have options, but a team with the Angels’ financial firepower figures to spend on some stability as well, especially having dealt away a potential front-end starter in Newcomb.

Looking at what the Angels have in-house, Garrett Richards looks every bit the part of a budding ace, and Heaney has undoubtedly earned himself a long look in 2016 with a terrific rookie season. There’s little certainty beyond that duo, though, as even the names that comprised the 2015 rotation come with question marks. Matt Shoemaker was a brilliant rookie in 2014 but a wildly inconsistent sophomore whose end-of-year numbers from 2015 look like back-of-the-rotation production, at best. Weaver’s fastball velocity dipped to the low 80s, and he was hit hard and hit often in 2015. Wilson underwent season-ending elbow surgery in August. Santiago was excellent, but he hasn’t shown consistency in the Majors, as evidenced by losing his rotation spot with Anaheim as recently as 2014.

With that in mind, the Angels seem like logical players for free-agent help on the pitching market. Mid-level arms that could be had without significantly escalating the risk of crossing the luxury tax barrier include Wei-Yin Chen, Marco Estrada, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy, to name a few. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out to me recently, Eppler has  somewhat of a connection to Kennedy, having been in the Yankees front office while Kennedy was drafted and rose through the farm system.

A run at high-profile names — David Price, Zack Greinke, etc. — probably shouldn’t be entirely written off, although another $20MM+ AAV contract would bring the Halos significantly closer to the luxury tax threshold. It’s possible that the club could free up some room by moving Wilson, who apparently caused some frustration among his teammates when he opted to undergo his season-ending procedure. Moving Wilson’s $15.5MM annual salary wouldn’t offset a $30MM-per-year price tag on Price or the similarly lofty AAVs that other top-tier free agents will command, but it makes the blow easier for the Angels to absorb while leaving room to pursue other needs.

Turning to the ’pen, the Angels are in pretty good shape. Huston Street will return as the club’s closer after inking a two-year extension earlier this year. Joe Smith has been excellent in the first two seasons of a three-year deal, and he’ll be joined in the setup crew by righties Trevor Gott and Fernando Salas. Mike Morin figures to earn another chance as well. Though he slumped badly after a strong rookie showing in 2014, Morin’s strand rate (44.4%) was far and away the lowest in baseball of any pitcher with 30+ innings. That number screams “fluke,” and as such isn’t likely to be repeated. Morin’s 10.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 21.2 percent K%-BB% indicate better days ahead. Left-handed options include Cesar Ramos and Jose Alvarez, each of whom had strong seasons. Depth additions seem more likely than major adds, especially considering the fact that righty Cam Bedrosian, who dominated Triple-A but struggled in the Majors, figures to earn another shot at some point in 2016.

Pitching questions aside, the bigger needs for the Angels are on offense, where the club faces holes at catcher, second base, third base, in left field and possibly at DH. Chris Iannetta and David Freese are free agents, while left field was a revolving door in 2015. David Murphy, Matt Joyce, David DeJesus and Shane Victorino all saw time there but are all free agents now. Johnny Giavotella manned second base for much of the 2015 campaign after mainstay Howie Kendrick was traded for Heaney. Giavotella was slightly below the league average with the bat but also played questionable defense and lacks significant upside.

C.J. Cron appears set to open the season at first base in the wake of Albert Pujols’ foot surgery, and he should eventually split time with Pujols at first and DH. While neither is a great defensive option and Cron does have his flaws (namely, a lack of plate discipline), Cron has the power to join Pujols as a source of 30 home runs. While the former first-round pick struggled greatly for the first two months of the season and was demoted to Triple-A, he hit .285/.325/.507 with 15 homers over his final 290 plate appearances upon being recalled. Pujols should be ready to go in early May, but his absence could lead the Halos to seek a bit of power that could begin the season at DH and shift to the bench when Pujols is activated.

A versatile piece such as Daniel Murphy makes some sense for the Angels, who were said in July to be eyeing left-handed bats to fill out their roster. Murphy could serve as an upgrade over Giavotella at second base or see more regular time at the hot corner if Freese isn’t re-signed. Internal options such as Caleb Kowart and Kyle Kubitza have seen their stock tumble, as neither player’s power has developed as hoped. The trade market has options at either position, with names like Yunel Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie, Javier Baez, Starlin Castro and Jedd Gyorko among the offseason’s potential trade candidates. The Angels are said, in particular, to be intrigued by Plouffe, who could be made available if and when Minnesota reaches an agreement with Korean slugger Byung-ho Park. Bedrosian is said to be one name that intrigues the Twins, who have their eyes on hard-throwing relief help.

Catcher is a similar situation, and the open market is rather devoid of talent now that both Matt Wieters and A.J. Pierzynski came off the board early. With Carlos Perez and Jett Bandy currently serving as the only MLB-ready options on the roster, there’s a need for some type of move. Potential trade candidates could include Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki and Wilson Ramos, though Lucroy finished the season with concussion issues while Suzuki and Ramos each struggled greatly. If a longer-term add is the goal, then perhaps the Braves’ Christian Bethancourt or the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez are plausible options. Eppler is, after all, quite familiar with Sanchez from his time in New York.

One area in which the Angels could aim higher is in the outfield. While the team was said to prefer lefty bats this summer, it eventually warmed to right-handed hitters and was linked to Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton. Either of those players could reasonably fit into the club’s long-term plans, with only Mike Trout, Pujols, and now Simmons under control beyond the 2017 season. The AAV of the contract might present some problems, though the previously mentioned theoretical savings from a Wilson trade could be applied here as well. A run at Jason Heyward makes sense, too, especially if he can be had at a lower annual value over a longer term, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently hypothesized in his free-agent profile. If the Simmons trade taught us one thing, it’s that prime-aged, elite defense holds great value to the restructured front office.

The Angels’ mega-signings of Pujols and Hamilton, plus significant second-tier expenditures have clogged their long-term outlook for years, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel after the 2016 campaign. While the team shouldn’t necessarily look to repeat past mistakes and over-commit to aging sluggers, the current market features a number of more youthful options that could fit into the team’s long-term outlook or be locked up on shorter deals (e.g. a three- or four-year pact for a mid-tier starter).

The Angels have the financial means to spend on nearly any free agent, and with the team’s luxury tax fears likely to dissipate next winter, long-term commitments aren’t necessarily as problematic as they once were. Of course, some future cash could also go to extensions with players such as Calhoun and Richards, both of whom look like fairly appealing targets for long-term deals.

We can’t know for sure what to expect out of a rookie general manager — A.J. Preller taught us that much last winter — but Eppler made his presence felt with the Simmons trade, and in doing so, filled an impending but glaring need a year before it needed to be addressed. With a number of holes to fill and increasing spending capacity, I’d expect the Simmons swap to be just the first move of what should be a highly active offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins have a lot of ground to make up in the NL East, but enter the offseason with a talented core, a bit of free cash, and a desire to compete.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Options

  • None

Free Agents

The Marlins were riding high entering 2015, but a tumultuous season ended with yet more changes. Ultimately, GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings was sent out, with Don Matingly joining the organization to run the dugout and Michael Hill remaining the head of baseball ops. There was plenty of drama along the way, including another lengthy DL stint for superstar Giancarlo Stanton, the release of catcher Jarrod Saltalammachia, and trades of failed offseason acquisitions Michael Morse and Mat Latos.

In spite of that, the organization’s fundamental core remains intact. Stanton and Christian Yelich still look like cornerstone pieces, even if they weren’t able to put it on display consistently all year. Miami’s major winter addition, Dee Gordon, was spectacular. Young ace Jose Fernandez made it back from Tommy John surgery and looks ready to re-establish himself as a top-shelf ace, though some (hopefully) minor arm issues cropped up late in the year and his innings will need to be managed. The Marlins’ corner outfield duo is already under contract for the foreseeable future. The team could well push for long-term deals for the other two this winter, but they’ll be back regardless.

There was a time not long ago when a fifth player seemed worthy of mentioning with that group: center fielder Marcell Ozuna. Miami tried to extend him after a breakout 2014 in which he showed above-average pop and a quality glove. Ozuna received a mid-season demotion after a tepid start, saw his name arise in summer trade rumors, and was reportedly the subject of in-fighting between former manager Dan Jennings (who wanted to play him) and owner Jeffrey Loria (who didn’t). Jennings won that battle, as the soon-to-be 25-year-old did play, and played well (.278/.320/.469 in his 172 second half plate appearances). But Loria obviously went on to win the war. In recent days, Ozuna agent Scott Boras and Marlins president David Samson have swapped barbs, so it doesn’t seem as if the situation is improving.

Sep 29, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder <a rel=Making a decision on Ozuna represents the lynchpin of the Marlins’ offseason. If he’s retained, the organization would be set with an exciting, young trio of regulars (joined by veteran reserve outfielder Ichiro Suzuki). In the seemingly more likely scenario of a trade, Miami might well be left to search for a replacement externally. It isn’t impossible to imagine Miami giving out a mid-length contract to a veteran, with Denard Span possibly available at an appealing price point and Dexter Fowler standing at the top of a limited market, but a shorter-term signing could be more likely. Though the soon-to-be-renamed Marlins Park isn’t a great draw for hitters looking to rebuild value, the club could theoretically promise playing time and a center field job to someone like Austin Jackson.

If the front office isn’t willing or able to attract those kinds of players, it’s possible to imagine a scenario where a capable defender and right-handed hitter — Drew Stubbs comes to mind (though former Marlin Jake Marisnick would have worked nicely) — splits time with Yelich in center. In that scenario, the southpaw swinging Derek Dietrich could spend time in left when righties are on the hill, opening a route to more playing time for him in the process. Dietrich has yet to prove himself a capable fielder, but his bat showed up last year and a broader opportunity could be in order.

Dealing away a controllable piece like Ozuna is never easy, but it probably also represents the only reasonably plausible means for the organization to add a high-level pitcher. The team has made clear that’s a top priority, and it’s easy to see why. Henderson Alvarez could rejoin Fernandez at the top of the rotation after a lengthy absence due to shoulder surgery, but he’s now a major injury question mark. It’s probably also unfair to expect the 25-year-old to be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher going forward, as he’s never posted a sub-3.70 SIERA even in his best seasons. It’s not even clear yet whether Alvarez will be tendered a contract, though it surely would be difficult to give him up with another year of control still remaining. Jarred Cosart showed promise after coming to the Marlins in the middle of 2014, but struggled last year with command, results, and health issues. The club has received plenty of innings from Tom Koehler in recent years, making him a nice arm to have at the back of the rotation, but his upside appears limited. Adam Conley is a reasonably interesting arm who showed well in his debut last year, but there are probably limits to what can be expected of him. Otherwise, the team has depth/swingman options such as Brad Hand and David Phelps as well as some unestablished pieces that have at least tasted the big leagues, including Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena, and Kendry Flores.

In retrospect, at least, it hurts to think about the arms that Miami has traded away in recent years. Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Anthony DeSclafani have all had their share of success since leaving town. Trading Ozuna carries the same kind of risk, though he ought to be able to fetch a similarly controllable player in return — especially after a strong run at season’s end. We’ve heard lots of talk of the Indians as a potential match, which makes a lot of sense on paper, and MLBTR’s Steve Adams has previously identified the Mariners, Giants, Brewers, and Padres as hypothetical trade partners. Of course, Ozuna could also hold appeal to clubs that have center fielders on hand but need corner pieces, such as the White Sox, Rays, Royals, and Reds. And the division rival Braves and Phillies both could conceivably match up as well.

There’s also some indication that the Fish could be looking to spend some cash — perhaps up to $15MM annually — on an open-market rotation addition. (If they don’t add an arm via Ozuna, they could seek two free agents.) Depending on what kind of term of years Miami would be willing to commit to, that would put the team in play for a wide variety of mid-rotation arms. Among the top fifty free agents, as rated by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, only the very top arms appear to be completely out of reach. With a protected top pick (seventh overall) and a penchant for trading their competitive balance selections, the Marlins might not be too worried about giving up a second-round draft pick to add the right pitcher. It’s possible to imagine a run at the Jeff Samardzija – Mike Leake – Wei-Yin Chen – Kenta Maeda tier of arms, though taking aim at the next group down might be more realistic. If Miami prefers a younger arm and doesn’t mind taking some injury risk, Brett Anderson could be a target. High-performing veterans such as John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma might at least be worth pursuing. Otherwise, it’s also possible to imagine the club chasing a less expensive that can deliver innings. With former Pirates pitching guru Jim Benedict now in Miami, J.A. Happ could make added sense as a reliable arm with some upside. (Miami paid a steep price to add Benedict, it’s worth noting, and will surely look to benefit from some of the same magic he worked in Pittsburgh.)

The trio of traded pitchers noted above did, of course, bring back players in return, two of whom — Gordon and Martin Prado — feature heavily in the current infield alignment. (DeSclafani went for Latos, which obviously did not work out at all.) Prado has drawn a good deal of trade interest, and only has one year remaining on his deal, but the Miami front office continues to put out word that he’s not really available. Though he’s no longer the very good hitter he once was, Prado has delivered a league-average bat with quality defense at third base, and remains a valuable member of any team that hopes to contend. The 32-year-old also represents a corner outfield and second base option, expanding his versatility (and hypothetical trade market).

Shortstop is settled with the slick-fielding Adeiny Hechavarria, who is highly valued by the club despite his light bat. There’d be interest in an extension, but it seems that the club isn’t optimistic that the 26-year-old could be locked up at a reasonable price.

There’s some uncertainty at first base and catcher, though both positions figure to be filled by internal options with some possible external supplementation. Lefty slugger Justin Bour was rather productive last year, slashing .262/.321/.479 and popping 23 home runs over 446 plate appearances. But he’s been dominated in limited exposure to opposing southpaws, and looks in need of a platoon mate. It’s plausible to imagine the club pursuing hitters such as Mark Reynolds in free agency. Steve Pearce and Mike Napoli could also fit, though they’ll be looking for bigger roles and more money. Behind the dish, the 24-year-old J.T. Realmuto should continue to receive a chance to seize a long-term role. He started slowly with the bat, but showed plenty of offensive promise over the course of the season. While WAR measures liked his defensive work quite a bit, he’ll need to improve some of the league’s worst framing numbers. The switch-hitting Tomas Telis provides an option as a reserve catcher, and the organization could still bring back free agent Jeff Mathis, a highly-regarded performer in the field whose limitations on offense are well documented.

As the team looks at ways of filling in its final roster spots, the bullpen also figures to get some consideration. A.J. Ramos stepped in well for the disappointing Steve Cishek. The outgoing submariner brought back a control-challenged but live-armed righty in Kyle Barraclough, who probably earned a pen spot after spinning 24 1/3 frames of 2.59 ERA pitching after the trade (despite walking 6.7 batters per nine). Carter Capps was a revelation, but ended the year on the DL with elbow issues. Assuming he’s able to return to health, he’ll join Bryan Morris and lefty Mike Dunn to make up a fairly solid set-up group. It probably isn’t strictly necessary to add to this group, which could be supplemented by whatever rotation options don’t stick there, but a veteran acquisition is always possible.

All told, Miami could conceivably look at this as a winter to regroup, return to health, and make a few targeted acquisitions. But the Ozuna conundrum and the desire for a young pitcher add an element of intrigue. While the front office/field staff upheaval appears to be nearing a conclusion, the Loria-led team could yet surprise as it looks to arm Mattingly with the tools to deliver a winner.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The AL East champions will have to rebuild their pitching staff this winter, though their first priority will be sorting out an unexpected front office shuffle.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The afterglow of the Blue Jays’ first postseason appearance since 1993 quickly wore off with the stunning news that Alex Anthopoulos wouldn’t be returning as Toronto’s general manager.  It was more or less expected that the Jays’ playoff run would ensure a new contract for Anthopoulos, but since that proposed extension reportedly gave the final decision-making authority to new club president/CEO Mark Shapiro, Anthopoulos said he “didn’t feel like this was the right fit” for him and walked away from the job.

Anthopoulos’ departure reportedly came as a surprise to both Shapiro and Rogers Communications (the club’s ownership group), though the Jays’ interest in a president with a baseball operations background was evident even a year ago during their flirtations with the likes of Dan Duquette and Kenny Williams.  This implied that Anthopoulos was no longer Rogers’ choice to be the top baseball voice in the organization, so expecting him to accept a loss of autonomy in the wake of a division title may have been a bit naive on ownership’s part.  If Anthopoulos’ decision truly caught the club off-guard, then the Jays are somewhat under the gun in beginning a GM search just as offseason business is getting underway.

Naming Tony LaCava as the interim general manager (and extending his contract) does ensure some continuity within the front office, and LaCava himself could be a fit as the permanent GM.  He has been a long-time assistant GM in Toronto, he briefly worked with Shapiro in Cleveland’s front office and he has been considered for GM jobs with other teams (the Pirates, Angels, Dodgers and Orioles) in the past.  Current and former members of the Indians front office like Ross Atkins, Derek Falvey, De Jon Watson, Josh Byrnes and Tyrone Brooks have been mentioned as possible candidates for the GM position, though everything seems speculative at this point.

This organizational drama has added another layer of intrigue into what was already going to be a very busy offseason for the Jays.  The most clear-cut business has already been taken care of, as the Jays exercised their club options on Jose Bautista ($14MM), R.A. Dickey ($12MM) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10MM) for 2016.  A combined $36MM is a more-than-reasonable price for two elite sluggers and a solid 200+ inning starter.

The next step for the Jays will be to explore extending Bautista and Encarnacion, which will be very interesting negotiations.  The two men are entering their respective age-35 and age-33 seasons and Bautista’s defense has been falling off to the point that he could soon be best suited as a mostly-DH type, as Encarnacion is now.  Extending any player into their late 30’s is a dicey proposition, and extending two such players could be especially risky.  The counter argument, of course, is that Bautista and Encarnacion are still two of the game’s best hitters, both posting big numbers in 2015 despite battling some nagging injuries.  While the Jays could wait to see if either declines next season, waiting also carries the risk of letting either slugger hit the open market on the heels of another big performance.  The Bautista and Encarnacion talks will be a big subplot of this Blue Jays offseason, particularly if the team favors one over the other.

With these contract option years now officially on the books, Toronto is committed to $71MM for five players next season.  The Jays will pay a projected $33MM to their nine-player arbitration class, with Josh Donaldson getting the biggest raise (from $4.3MM in 2015 to $12MM in 2016) in the wake of his MVP-caliber season.  Important contributors like Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna, Chris Colabello, Kevin Pillar and Aaron Sanchez are still on their pre-arb contracts, which gives the team a bit of financial breathing room as it tries to figure out how much to spend on the pitching staff.

While nine-figure payrolls aren’t new for the Jays, it has yet to be determined just how much they’re willing to spend this winter.  Last year’s Opening Day payroll was just under $126MM and that number went up during the year after their big deadline trading spree.  It’s fair to assume that Shapiro and LaCava will have at least that $126MM figure to work with in the offseason.  While it has been speculated that Rogers hired Shapiro in part because of his experience with modest payrolls in Cleveland, Shapiro wasn’t afraid to make notable signings (the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn deals) and extensions (i.e. Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta) in his time as the Tribe’s GM and president.

It could also be that Shapiro will receive more financial leeway than Anthopoulos.  The Jays were heavily criticized by fans and local media for making virtually no major moves between the Dickey trade in December 2012 and the Donaldson trade in November 2014, and in hindsight, that seeming transactions freeze could’ve been the first sign of ownership disenchantment with Anthopoulos in the wake of the disastrous 2013 season, rather than a sign that Rogers wasn’t willing to spend.  Given how attendance and TV ratings skyrocketed from August through October, Rogers now has clear evidence that a winning team will be a huge boost to revenue.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the club is willing to spend the $200MM+ it will take to sign David Price to a new deal this winter.  Price has been vocal about how much he enjoyed pitching in Toronto, though with teams such as the Dodgers and Cubs likely in the running for Price’s services, it would be a surprise to see the Jays win a bidding war.  Russell Martin’s $82MM contract from last winter was the biggest free agent deal in franchise history while Vernon Wells’ $126MM deal from 2006 is still the largest overall contract the Jays have ever handed out; the team would likely have to spend as much as those two deals combined, if not more, to retain Price.

Besides Price, Marco Estrada and the possibly (but not certainly) retiring Mark Buehrle are also hitting the open market.  Estrada’s strong performance in both the regular season and postseason boosted his price tag, and the Jays could well re-sign him if that price is around three years and $30MM.  If it goes much higher, I suspect the Blue Jays would be willing to let him walk — especially since they would receive a draft pick in return, as Estrada was issued a qualifying offer.  The two sides are in the midst of discussing a multi-year deal right now, though there have been no indications that a deal is close.

As for Buehrle, he’s been leaning towards retirement for a while.  If he did come back, it might be on a one-year farewell tour type of deal with his hometown Cardinals or a return to the White Sox, rather than re-signing with the Jays.

Right now the Jays’ rotation consists of rising star Stroman, Dickey, and Drew Hutchison (whose inconsistent 2015 season makes him only a fifth starter candidate at best).  One of the two open spots could be filled internally by Osuna or Sanchez, and the latter is the likelier pick since he’d be easier to stretch out.  Sanchez was originally intended to be a reliever last spring, then became a starter in the wake of Stroman’s injury. He struggled prior to a lat injury (5.21 FIP, 42-to-37 K/BB ratio in 66 innings) but returned to thrive in a relief role.  It’s possible that a full spring of preparing solely to start will lead to better results for Sanchez, who’s just a year removed from being labeled one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.

Shifting either Sanchez or Osuna to the rotation is a risky move for a contender, however, as both are unproven as MLB starters and using either to start weakens the bullpen.  Osuna’s transition from A-ball starter in 2014 to star Major League closer in 2015 was already unlikely enough that the Jays may not want to further press their luck by pushing Osuna any further.  His 78 combined IP in the regular season and playoffs last season was a career high, so he’d certainly be on an innings limit as a starter. Thus, the Jays would need a replacement for the latter portion of the season.

Everything therefore seems to point to the Jays adding at least one notable front-of-the-rotation arm and quite possibly a mid-tier starter as well.  There’s no shortage of aces in free agency, and the Jays might not mind losing a first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent since they’d be getting back a comparable draft pick back if Estrada leaves, and their current pick (No. 26) is toward the end of the first round as it is.  Aiming for free agency, however, will test how much the team is willing or able to spend.  The Jays have been linked to Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija in the past, though that was under Anthopoulos.  Shapiro and LaCava may have different opinions of how well either starter would fare in Toronto, especially on an expensive long-term deal.

Rather than free agency, the Blue Jays could acquire pitching via the trade market.  Shapiro has denied a report claiming he directly criticized Anthopoulos for moving top prospects at the deadline, though it would still be somewhat surprising to see the Jays continue to deal youngsters since building from within is Shapiro’s stated preference.  Dealing from the Major League roster, however, could address both the pitching staff and a couple of question marks around the diamond.

Left field, for instance, has Ben Revere as the incumbent and set to earn a $6.7MM salary through arbitration.  This could be a bit high for the Jays’ liking since Revere is a somewhat limited offensive player and has mixed reviews over his career (as per advanced metrics) as a left fielder.  The Jays could try to deal Revere as part of a package for a starter and then go with a Michael Saunders/Dalton Pompey platoon in left.  Then again, Saunders could himself be a trade or even a non-tender candidate given his $2.9MM arbitration projection.  Dealing him for value could be difficult since he barely played in 2015 due to knee injuries.  Pompey isn’t likely to be traded given his high prospect pedigree, though counting on him for anything more than a part-time role is a risk given how he looked overmatched at the plate when he began last season as the starting center fielder and was eventually demoted.

First base could be another position of depth.  Encarnacion will mostly be used as a DH, leaving Colabello and Justin Smoak splitting time at first.  Colabello was a hugely successful under-the-radar signing last winter, giving the Jays an .886 OPS in 360 PA.  Colabello is still a year away from arbitration eligibility which could make him a very attractive trade chip, especially if the Jays think he’ll come back to earth next season (given that he did post a stunningly high .411 BABIP).  Smoak, meanwhile, hit .226/.299/.470 with 18 homers in 328 PA while providing solid defense.  The switch-hitter is an ideal backup for whomever is getting the lion’s share of time at first, whether it’s Colabello or a new addition.

This is just my speculation, but Shapiro’s former team in Cleveland is one of the few that has high-quality, controllable arms potentially available this winter.  The Jays actually came close to landing Carlos Carrasco at the trade deadline for a package of Pompey, Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, so it’s possible Shapiro could revisit those talks from the other side of the table to pursue Carrasco or Danny Salazar.  (Though of course, a new offer would have to be made since Hoffman and Norris have since been dealt.)

You can also make the case that the Blue Jays could just stand pat with their everyday regulars given how the team turned into world-beaters on both offense and defense once their final lineup was solidified at the deadline.  Given how injuries really left the Jays short-handed in early 2015, keeping the outfield and first base surplus intact could be a wise move, as a number of veterans in the lineup already come with notable injury histories.  Devon Travis’ return theoretically makes Ryan Goins expendable, though Goins is perhaps too valuable a bench piece to deal — he provides tremendous defense at either middle infield spot, which comes in handy since it’s far from guaranteed that Travis or Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy all year.

For now, Toronto’s bench lines up as Goins, Smoak, at least one of Saunders or Pompey and then Josh Thole (the knuckler-catching specialist for Dickey) as the backup catcher.  Dioner Navarro did a good job in the backup role last year, though he’s expected to depart for a team that can offer him more playing time.

The bullpen was a problem area for much of the year, seemingly rounding into form around the deadline, but injuries in the playoffs exposed the lack of depth.  If Sanchez is moved into the rotation, the Jays will need a new reliever to set up Osuna.  Brett Cecil pitched very well last season and could do the job, though he could be better deployed outside of a set role and used in high-leverage situations (particularly against left-handed hitters) whenever they may arise in the later innings.  Aaron Loup had solid numbers against lefty bats strictly in a LOOGY role, though the Blue Jays will probably look to bolster their bullpen southpaw corps.  Free agent Tony Sipp could be a possibility if Shapiro wanted to bring in a familiar face from his Cleveland days.

LaTroy Hawkins is retiring and Mark Lowe is a free agent, so the Jays will also need some help on the right-handed side of the bullpen ledger.  Darren O’Day, Tyler Clippard and Shawn Kelley are some of the bigger names available in free agency, though it’s worth noting that Shapiro has never pursued notable free agent reliever signings when he ran the Tribe.  Rather than spend on a righty reliever, the Blue Jays could just keep Sanchez in the bullpen for another year (with an eye to him replacing Dickey in the 2017 rotation), sign a low-cost right-hander and funnel all available money towards the rotation.

Toronto has enough clear areas of need on the roster that it’s obvious what will be targeted no matter who takes over as the full-time general manager (Shapiro will ultimately be calling the shots anyway).  The Jays certainly have work to do on the pitching front, but with so much of their league-best offense likely returning, the club has expectations of another postseason run in 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The future is now for the Astros, as they’ll be looking to continue their winning ways and return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jed Lowrie, IF: $15MM through 2017 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2018)
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $12.5MM through 2017
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: $9MM through 2016
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $8MM through 2017 (plus club options for 2018-19)
  • Scott Feldman, SP: $8MM through 2016
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $7MM through 2016 (includes $500K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2017)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $6.5MM through 2018 (includes $500K buyout of $2.5MM club option for 2019; club also has options for 2020-21)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Jeff Luhnow’s extensive (and sometimes controversial) rebuild of the Astros began to pay dividends a bit earlier than expected, as most pundits figured the young club was still a year or two away when the 2015 season began.  For Houston fans suffering through years of losing baseball, however, the successes of 2015 couldn’t have come soon enough.  The Astros led the AL West for much of the season, and while a September swoon cost them the division, they still beat the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game and took the Royals to the full five games in their ALDS matchup.

The Astros weren’t afraid to spend some money last winter in order to upgrade their bullpen, lineup and rotation, nor did they shy away from dealing notable prospects like Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana in their big midseason deal for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers.  Now that they’ve established themselves as a playoff threat, the next step will be to see how much more owner Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll and whether or not Luhnow will sacrifice any more of his vast prospect capital in order to enhance the Major League roster.

Just under $43MM is committed to seven players on the 2016 Astros, and another $31MM is projected to go to nine arbitration-eligible players (though it’s no guarantee all will be tendered, as I’ll explore later).  That adds up to $74MM for 16 players, which is already more than the $72.64MM the Astros spent on their last Opening Day roster.  The payroll has gradually risen from a measly $26MM in 2013 to roughly $50.5MM in 2014 to last year’s total, so it seems like a boost into the $95-$100MM range could be coming this winter.  Crane has repeatedly stated that Luhnow will have more funding available as the team’s development warrants, so if the team is contending again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros pass the $100MM threshold if it means securing a player to help them make a deeper postseason run.

With so much young talent both on the Major League roster and developing down on the farm, it stands to reason that the Astros won’t be a one-year wonder.  For starters, Houston’s lineup will be improved simply by getting an entire year of rookie sensation Carlos Correa and healthy full seasons from Gomez and George Springer.  Gomez is entering the last year of his contract, so he’ll be lined up for a major free agent deal next winter if he gets back to his past All-Star form.

Correa, Springer, Gomez and Jose Altuve form the core of Houston’s lineup, though the Astros have several questions to be answered elsewhere around the diamond.  For one, those four are all right-handed hitters, so the Astros have a distinct need to add lineup balance in the form of at least one notable left-handed bat.  Several regulars are arbitration-eligible, and the team could consider not tendering contracts to some familiar names in order to free some money for bigger upgrades.

Third baseman Luis Valbuena, first baseman Chris Carter and DH Evan Gattis are all cut from the same cloth as low-average, low-OBP sluggers who provided pop in the form of a combined 76 homers.  While their overall arbitration price of $14.8MM isn’t exorbitant, three players with the same limited skill set could be seen as a redundancy for a contending team.  Valbuena is the most likely to stay, as he’s currently the most notable left-handed bat on the roster and can be platooned with Jed Lowrie.  Valbuena is also a free agent after 2016, with prospect Colin Moran on track to get at least a share of the job by 2017.

Though Carter and Gattis are hard to replace from a power standpoint, it wouldn’t be too hard for Houston to find players to top their combined 0.3 fWAR in 2015.  The Astros will pursue trades for both before the tendering deadline, and my guess is that if it came down to a non-tender decision, they’d keep the longer-tenured Carter and let Gattis go.  Even if Houston tenders one or both, however, I’d suspect both would still be shopped during the rest of the offseason.  You could even make a case that the ’Stros could non-tender both sluggers in order to really shake things up, but that’s an unlikely move given how Carter boosted his trade value with a late surge in September and through the playoffs.

If Carter, Gattis or both are gone, who takes over at first or DH?  Prospect A.J. Reed dominated high-A and Double-A pitching last season and will compete for a roster spot in Spring Training, though it might be too early to count on him since he’s yet to play a game at the Triple-A level.  You’ll likely see him hit the bigs sometime in 2016, however.  The Astros won’t yet give up on former top prospect Jon Singleton due to his young age (24) and long-term contract, though Singleton has done little in 420 career PA to prove that he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a contending team, let alone regular playing time. Former 33rd-rounder Tyler White is another option after his monster season split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The non-tender question can also be asked about the catcher’s job, though my guess is that the Astros stick with the Jason Castro/Hank Conger tandem.  The team loves Castro’s defense, relationship with the pitching staff and clubhouse leadership role, while Conger also had good pitch-framing numbers and hit .229/.311/.448 with 11 homers over 229 PA.  Houston has been cited as a possible destination for Matt Wieters, who is an upgrade on paper.  Given the question marks about his injury history and the lack of any other distinct better options on the open market, the Astros might feel more comfortable to keep their familiar catching platoon and spend elsewhere.

Left field is the only clear hole in the lineup as Colby Rasmus will hit free agency after nicely rebuilding his value with a solid regular season and a Ruthian postseason.  The Astros have young options to play left field next season, as a Preston Tucker/Jake Marisnick platoon is probably the top alternative if Rasmus or another everyday regular can’t be obtained.  This said, it wouldn’t be a shock if Rasmus re-signed since he enjoyed his time with the club and at least sounds open to returning.  (Not to mention that Rasmus is a left-handed hitter.)

If he still intends to retire within a few seasons, Rasmus has a case for becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  Rasmus could take the one-year, $15.8MM deal to remain in a familiar spot for another season, as while he’d obviously make far more money in a multi-year contract, he might not want to risk being in another uncomfortable clubhouse situation for what could be the final few years of his career.  (Jeff Todd and Steve Adams recently raised this point on the MLBTR Podcast.)  Houston seems comfortable with the idea of Rasmus accepting.  Retaining a short-term established player, after all, fits with the Astros’ long-term outfield plans with prospects Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher all on the horizon, as well as Tucker and Marisnick in the fold right now.  It’s probably still likely that Rasmus rejects the QO, but he at least has a few more layers to his decision than most.

Luhnow faces an interesting juggling act in adding players to help his team win now, yet also still maintaining and relying on the youth movement that the Astros worked so hard to build.  Top-tier free agents like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon would more than fill the club’s need in left field, though that would represent one less spot for Cameron and company in a few years’ time.  (Center field could well be open if Gomez leaves, though Springer is surely ticketed as a long-term piece.)  Of the top names, Gordon may be the best fit for Houston given that he’s a left-handed hitter, and also because the analytically-minded Astros are the sort of team that would particularly appreciate how Gordon can contribute in all facets of the game.

The same “now vs. the future” debate could be had about first base.  With Reed’s big bat looming, do the Astros need a big upgrade like Chris Davis or could they acquire a short-term veteran bat like Justin Morneau to platoon with Carter/Gattis until Reed arrives?  Davis checks a lot of boxes as an ideal signing for the Astros — he’s a Texas native, a left-handed hitter and brings even more power than Carter or Gattis while providing a much better all-around game.  Davis can contribute from day one while Reed may need some time to acclimate to Major League pitching.  That said, signing Davis would block Reed for the first few years of his career, and making Reed a full-time DH so early in his career probably isn’t something the Astros want.

Another concern is Davis’ price tag, which could be in the six-year/$144MM range and thus would easily surpass Carlos Lee’s six-year, $100MM deal from 2006 as the biggest contract in Astros history.  Payroll boost notwithstanding, I don’t see Houston splurging on two nine-figure contracts this offseason, so they’d have to choose whether they want to make a big impact (if any) on the pitching or offense front.

Speaking of pitching, the rotation projects as Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Lance McCullers and Fiers, with young arms like Vincent Velasquez, Dan Straily, Michael Feliz and Brett Oberholtzer available as depth (not to mention Mark Appel down in Triple-A).  Keuchel stepped forward as an ace and Cy Young Award contender in 2015, and his contract extension talks will be one of the club’s underlying subplots.  Expect to hear more about this topic in February and March when teams generally turn from offseason additions to extension business.  McHugh has now delivered consecutive seasons of 3+fWAR pitching, Feldman is a reliable veteran innings-eater when healthy and McCullers and Fiers have already showed the ability to dominate MLB hitters in their brief careers.

Plenty of teams would be satisfied with this pitching situation as it stands, though the Astros are thought to be in the market for a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Keuchel.  Remember, Houston pursued James Shields last winter even before their breakthrough season, and pursued the likes of Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross at the trade deadline.  While the Astros ended up with a controllable arm in Fiers and a bigger name hurler in Scott Kazmir, their next step is to land a pitcher who is both an ace and will be in Houston for several years.

Kazmir himself has stated he’d like to be that ace, though his middling results as an Astro both diminished his market value and perhaps hurt his chances of a return.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros check in on any of the top free agent pitchers, with David Price and Johnny Cueto perhaps getting the most focus since Houston already expressed in both starters last summer.  Also, neither pitcher has a qualifying offer draft pick attached to their services, though the Astros might not mind surrendering a first-rounder for the right signing given how many good prospects are already on board.  Price’s $200MM+ price tag may be too much to afford, though I could definitely see Houston getting involved with Cueto in the $115MM-$120MM range.

If a major arm is added to the rotation, Feldman stands out as a possible trade chip.  The right-hander was shut down with a strained throwing shoulder in September, so obviously he’d have to prove he’s back to normal in Spring Training.  Feldman brings a decent track record on a one-year, $8MM deal and could be very attractive to teams looking for a last-minute rotation boost.

This leaves the bullpen, which will be another major target area for the second straight offseason.  The Astros relief corps had the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the game last season, though it faded badly down the stretch with a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October (and that doesn’t count the infamous meltdown in Game 4 of the ALDS).  Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Josh Fields will return, while Houston has already declined their $3.5MM option on veteran righty Chad Qualls, whose peripherals suggest he pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA would indicate.

Southpaws Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are all free agents, so the Astros will certainly have to address a dearth of lefty relief.  Signing one of the winter’s top left-handed bullpen arms (Antonio Bastardo or Sipp himself) would add another significant contract to the Houston bullpen that already has over $12MM invested in 2016 salaries for Gregerson and Neshek.

The biggest relief investment could come in the form of a major closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were heavily targeted by Houston at the deadline.  The Reds and Padres are known to be asking for a large return for either closer, yet Houston is one of the few teams with the prospect depth to afford surrendering a notable minor leaguer or two for a reliever.  A star closer would make the Astros’ already solid bullpen even deeper, and with the rotation ideally providing more stable innings, the relievers are more likely to be sharp late in the season.

As noted earlier, Luhnow was aggressively seeking out top talent last winter before the Astros had proven they could put a winner on the field.  With a postseason berth now giving the franchise extra credibility with free agents, Luhnow could be one of the offseason’s busiest general managers given the plethora of options he has to improve the team.

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